Trump’s Tariffs, AI Takeover, Bitcoin, 2yrs Left | with Tom Bilyeu

Summary

In this video by Market Disruptors, Tom Bilyeu discusses the profound impacts of technological advancements, geopolitical tensions, and economic shifts. He explores how Trump's tariffs, AI's rapid evolution, and Bitcoin are reshaping today's market landscape. Through insights and stories, Bilyeu emphasizes the need for adaptability and strategic thinking in navigating an uncertain future. The discussion touches on critical issues like U.S.-China relations, the potential for AI-driven economic disruption, and Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, offering viewers a comprehensive take on thriving in a rapidly changing world.

Highlights

• AI is progressing at a blinding rate and could redefine industries in a few short years! 🤖💼
• Tom Bilyeu talks about the resilience of Bitcoin against inflation amidst economic uncertainties. 🪙📈
• There's an ongoing economic and political tension between the U.S. and China with huge implications. 🌍⚖️
• Most people struggle to define clear, actionable goals which is vital for success. 🎯🤔
• Mindset shifts and adaptability are essential to thrive in today's rapidly changing world. 💡🔧

Key Takeaways

• AI is evolving at an unprecedented speed and could dramatically reshape job markets! 🤖💼
• Bitcoin stands sturdy as a hedge against inflation, but isn't yet a mainstream medium of exchange. 🪙📈
• The tension between the U.S. and China, amplified by tariffs and economic strategies, creates global uncertainty. 🌍⚖️
• Developing a clear goal is crucial; most people fail to articulate their goals clearly and specifically. 🎯🤔
• Tom Bilyeu emphasizes the importance of mindset and adaptability in facing future disruptions. 💡🔧

Overview

Tom Bilyeu dives into the multifaceted challenges and opportunities presented by new technologies like AI, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and economic shifts marked by Bitcoin's rise and Trump's tariffs. With his unique insights, Tom reveals how these factors are intertwined and what they mean for the future of jobs and economies.

Amidst the chaos of market crashes and international political tension, Bitcoin emerges as a potential stabilizer. Bilyeu discusses the reasons behind Bitcoin's enduring appeal and how it serves as a hedge against the inflationary practices of traditional currencies. He also critiques the slow adaptation to AI, which offers both tremendous opportunities and risks.

The heart of Tom's message revolves around mindset and adaptability. With the rapid pace of AI development and global economic shifts, individuals must redefine their goals and strategies to remain competitive. Tom emphasizes that an unflappable mindset and the ability to pivot and adapt are crucial for navigating the future landscape successfully.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction to Technological Impact The chapter discusses the impact of new technology on employment, arguing that while it seems threatening, it actually creates new job opportunities. The narrative suggests that only a small percentage of people can capitalize on these opportunities, as evidenced by examples like Trump's tariffs, market fluctuations, AI advancements, and Bitcoin's rise, all driven by an underlying yet transformative economic force.
• 00:30 - 01:00: The Importance of Mindset and Strategy This chapter discusses the crucial role of mindset and strategy in determining personal and professional success. It highlights that making the wrong decisions regarding assets and career paths can lead to significant losses, while the right choices can set you far ahead of others. The chapter features insights from Tom Bilyeu, a renowned entrepreneur who built a billion-dollar brand and hosts a popular podcast. He emphasizes the importance of mastering mindset, strategy, and adaptability as key skills in today's world.
• 01:00 - 03:00: Discussion on Economic and Technological Trends In this chapter, the focus is on discussing major economic and technological trends impacting the global landscape. Key topics include Trump's tariffs, market crashes, the rise of AI and its implications for the coming years, and the growing prominence of Bitcoin. The discussion also covers strategies people might adopt to navigate these changes successfully over the next three to five years. The main advice centers on adapting one's mindset to these evolving conditions.
• 03:00 - 05:00: Impact of AI and Economic Strategies The chapter discusses the impact of AI on economic strategies, emphasizing the importance of self-awareness and challenging misplaced trust in one's intuition. It suggests individuals often overestimate their abilities and should focus on leveraging emotional stability, drive, and intellect for success. A critical analysis of current economic conditions is advised, particularly understanding the role of debt refinancing and the geopolitical tensions resembling a cold war environment.
• 05:00 - 07:30: Mindset Shifts and Economic Realities The chapter titled 'Mindset Shifts and Economic Realities' discusses the potential of a kinetic war with China and the need for change in manufacturing control. It explores the disruptive impact of AI agents on the world, emphasizing the rapid pace at which these changes are expected to occur, possibly within 24 months. The chapter underscores the necessity of being at the forefront of technological advancements, exploring how to leverage these changes effectively. It also suggests that many new billion-dollar companies could be formed by small teams of one to three individuals who come together and strategically deploy these new technologies.
• 07:30 - 10:00: Future of Work and Role of Technology The chapter explores the future of work and the role of technology, highlighting the impact of AI on organizational structures. As companies fully integrate AI, traditional employee roles may diminish or disappear. The discourse shifts to global economic concerns, particularly focusing on the US-China trade tensions. Notable financial analysts and macro thinkers like Ralph Paul and Ray Dallio are mentioned, who have discussed the implications of tariffs and economic policies, calling them a 'global financial earthquake,' indicating significant market disruptions and rising uncertainties.
• 10:00 - 12:30: AI, Economic Strategies, and Personal Growth This chapter delves into the complexities of the current economic chaos and its implications for investors. It emphasizes the unpredictability of the market, advising against day trading due to the challenges in understanding real-time market conditions. The speaker recommends focusing on strategic thinking and posing the question about actions during times of uncertainty, although it suggests that for some, it might be too late to make significant changes. Overall, the chapter underscores the importance of cautious investment strategies during volatile economic periods.
• 12:30 - 15:00: Bitcoin, Economic Theories, and Future Predictions The chapter discusses the behavior of investors during economic uncertainty and the concept of 'flight to safety', where investors move their investments into more stable options like treasury bills (T-bills). It highlights the general market aversion to uncertainty and how some may choose to avoid turmoil by seeking safer assets. The speaker shares a personal investment perspective, emphasizing the difficulty of outperforming the market and adhering to the strategy of 'time in the market' rather than attempting to time the market. The chapter reflects on market perceptions and long-term investment strategies concerning American companies.
• 15:00 - 15:30: Conclusion and Final Thoughts The speaker remains committed to their investment strategy, influenced by their age and long-term market perspective. They acknowledge understanding Ray Dallio's historical records, which impacts their decision. Despite potential short-term market fluctuations, such as a 10-year flat period, they maintain a protective stance, particularly prioritizing high-risk investments. Their investment approach is guided by these factors, indicating a strategic balance between risk and temporal considerations.

Trump’s Tariffs, AI Takeover, Bitcoin, 2yrs Left | with Tom Bilyeu Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 every time a new technology comes into place it ends up creating more jobs not less even though it always seems like it's about to put everybody out of work and then it just opens up all these new avenues and the people with the talents flood in okay yes but are the people able to go into those jobs no so this is where I want people to remember 2% of people can make that kind of change 98% won't trump's tariffs markets crashing AI's takeover and the rise of Bitcoin now there's one hidden force behind all three that could reshape the economy and most investors aren't ready for it and
• 00:30 - 01:00 if you get this one thing wrong you could be holding the wrong assets working in the wrong job and watching your wealth disappear but if you get it right you have the chance to be miles ahead of everyone today I am sitting down with Tom Bou tom's built a billion-dollar brand interviewed over 600 top performers he's a leading voice in the world through Impact Theory his top 001% podcast billion view media company and Tom teaches people how to master mindset strategy and adaptability which are essential skills in the world
• 01:00 - 01:30 that we're going into so in this video we're going to discuss Trump's tariffs we're going to talk about the markets crashing we're going to talk about AI's takeover and what that means over the next couple years and the rise of Bitcoin of course what he thinks you're going to need to know to survive and thrive over the next three to five years so let's just jump right in with Tom so what would you say some mind shift that you could give to people that might be useful for them today the ultimate framework is really simple you at all
• 01:30 - 02:00 times need to know and this is the big one that people don't understand about themselves which is that they trust their and they shouldn't if people just run that all day every day they can have all the success that their emotional stability their drive and their level of intellect will allow the big thing I would think people should look look at right now if you really want to understand part of the game they're playing whether this is going to work because of how much of the debt has to be refinanced you've got to get the we are in a cold war with very high
• 02:00 - 02:30 potential for being a kinetic war with China they can't control your manufacturing so that has to change what do you see AI agents doing to disrupt sort of the world and at what speed less than 24 months away that you're seeing like this kind of blind finding speed you need to be at the edge of it figuring out how do I make this work there's going to be many billion-dollar companies made by one two or three people they get together they deploy
• 02:30 - 03:00 full AI orgs all of a sudden all of those employees that you would have historically had they just go away all right Tom in one of your latest videos you've been talking a lot about tariffs and Trump and you called the tariff plan a global financial earthquake uh obviously we've seen markets crashing uh seems like it's heating up with the US and China a lot of people are on edge about this now you've been interviewing a lot of people i know macro thinkers that I know like Ralph Paul Ray Dallio um talking
• 03:00 - 03:30 about the economic chaos that's happening so what do you think investors should be paying attention to or doing right now that there's absolutely no way they know what's happening and boy do I warn people against being day traders so I would have people asking one question what do you do in times of uncertainty uh at this point it's probably too late to be honest for them to make any sort
• 03:30 - 04:00 of flight to safety but I certainly could have seen somebody going "Huh this is going to bring a lot of uncertainty markets hate uncertainty so I'm going to move into tea bills or something along those lines uh to avoid it but honestly from where I'm sitting I'm always taking the perspective that I'm the odds of me beating the market are effectively zero and so I'm going to play the old adage of time in the market versus time in the market nothing about my uh thesis about where certainly American companies go
• 04:00 - 04:30 has changed so I've already got and I've watched your videos on Ray Dallio and I know his historical uh records but the reason that I still buy into that strategy is because I'm partly my age so I still have a long time in the market uh so I'm not super worried about you know a 10-year period where it gets a little um flat i am way in a protective stance so all of my high-risk risk on stuff is all going to be in the
• 04:30 - 05:00 companies I'm building uh so I would advise people in a time of massive economic uncertainty unless you really feel like you have some insider information not insider trading but like you really understand that market just obscenely well um yeah I would be going somewhere that is going to ride the turbulence well so for me it's my thesis on Bitcoin has remained the same so I didn't touch anything there uh my thesis on the market over the long run that I'm invested for is the same so I've just left everything there uh and I'm already
• 05:00 - 05:30 so defensive and have so much in government debt that I left that there but for me most of that stuff is really short-term because I'm building my own companies so my big concern is always having your capital tied up somewhere so um right now I would tell people to make sure that you can move at a moment's notice that you've got enough capital that you can deploy that if something really gnarly happens like if we go into a proper global recession uh you want to have enough access to capital that you
• 05:30 - 06:00 don't have to worry about your lifestyle for years and years and years uh and you want to be able to if you see like a real opportunity like for instance if uh AI and robotics just absolutely got hammered I'd want to be able to get into those in a super broad way very diversified across Ross the sector because I have no idea who's going to win um but my thesis about the future is so aggressively clear i could be wrong obviously but it's so clear to me what the next call it five to seven years is going to look like um that if I saw that
• 06:00 - 06:30 segment depressed then I'd be pretty eager to get in at a discount uh I love AI and Bitcoin and we are going to dive into those two topics for sure because we're going to have a big conversation around that and what the next five to seven years looks like for sure but what I heard you saying was um number one for your current position so uh you have famously sold Quest Nutrition for whatever billion dollar deal that was um and so you're in more of a defensive state for sure um however
• 06:30 - 07:00 I would add on to that that regardless of what state you're in even if you're still trying to make your money I would listen to what you said which is you're focused on your businesses because that's where you make your money and then you're trying to defend and keep the capital that you have and so I think people that are thinking about the short term trying to trade that to make more money are probably going to end up on the wrong side of the timing yeah and I mean look you know this better than I do but I would be so curious i've heard a data point that rings so true to me which is that something and this is for sure true in the crypto world 5% of the
• 07:00 - 07:30 wallets make 95% of the gains so it's like there there are people that they're in those WhatsApp and signal groups they're betting on culture uh they know how much they can influence said culture and they win and basically everybody else loses i'm just not that that game to me is so crazy so I get I'm a very particular flavor of person who talks about the market uh but all the betting all the gambling that to that stuff to me is like a major turnoff yeah yeah and
• 07:30 - 08:00 unfortunately that's what the crypto space has turned into i mean meme stocks are jokes right and so it's turned into a crypto casino at this point literally yes uh literally jokes aggressively agree with that yeah um sad story uh somebody who was in one of my training programs I'd consider him a friend now um he had sort of lost a lot in the crypto space decided he was going to go all in Bitcoin only from here on out um built up a pretty big personal brand made a lot of money did pretty good had about $6 million in Bitcoin he's young
• 08:00 - 08:30 in his late 20s um the crypto thing kind of called again he started pumping he started a crypto trading group uhhuh um he made a lot of money $12,000 memberships for he sold like 200 people made a couple million bucks selling memberships but they all lost a lot of money so then he tra started a meme trading group oh god and uh it was about three weeks ago he messaged me sent me a text message and he said "Hey Mark can we talk uh I messed up really bad and I need to talk cuz I have this famous story of kind of losing everything in
• 08:30 - 09:00 2008." And uh I got on the phone with him and um he's like "Man I chased the memes all the way to the bottom and I lost all my money $6 million." And uh not only that but everybody that was paying him to be in that meme trading group as well so um anyway I want to dive deeper into tariffs i I do want to get into Bitcoin AI we're going to have a lot of fun with that um but if we talk about tariffs like I said you've been all over it it's the talk of the talk of the town if you will all over the news but you talked about like Trump's tariff
• 09:00 - 09:30 strategy now a lot of people actually let me start with this you said that um I think on your intro you said that nobody has any idea what's going on or what's going to happen yeah i don't think anybody can accurately predict how this is going to play out people have thesis and that's good so certainly in a complex system the law of unintended consequences is going to kick in and so you start trying to play with a couple pieces of a complex system and we have multiple systems together certainly the unintended consequences will win but the
• 09:30 - 10:00 narrative seems to be with mainstream media that Trump and his team are a bunch of buffoons and have no idea what they're doing yeah yeah i mean listen at the end of this half the world's going to look like morons and the other half is going to have been right to some degree but I don't think anybody right now should have the degree of confidence that I see people putting forward uh Trump really is the right way to think of him is he is the CEO of America and he's he's going for Mount
• 10:00 - 10:30 Rushmore whether it's going to work or not I legitimately have no idea i can articulate a very kind generous read on what he's doing and I pay a lot more attention to Scott Besson and Lutnik than I do to Trump trump is a chaos agent maybe the chaos is exactly what the system needs right now but if you really want to understand again whether they're right or not they have a very um easy to follow string of logic and it just becomes a question to what you were saying cool your first sort of
• 10:30 - 11:00 consequences yeah there's a chance that those will play out just like you're saying the bad news is this is an insanely complicated system uh where egos of other nations are getting involved this is like a huge gamble you're playing in with the setup of Thusidity's trap so it's UV China you're fighting for the whole world at a time where Brett and Woods is dead so you've got to come up with a whole new monetary system and Trump is like pulled the pin out of the grenade and tossed it and has gone "Okay this this is going to break
• 11:00 - 11:30 the mold and I've got to get everybody out of that mold so that I can move them into something new." And I'm perfectly willing to believe that they have a vision for what that something new is they've articulated it it there's probably the part they're saying and then there's my mind readad about the part they're not saying which we'll see if I end up being right about it and for people that don't know me I am not emotionally invested in being right i am only interest the only way to make sense of all the words coming out of my mouth are I am trying to accurately map the
• 11:30 - 12:00 way the world works and so and where it's going yeah well so if you know how the world works then you have a sense of where it's going if you do not understand how the world actually works you're never going to be able to figure out where this is going i try to follow everything from a cause and effect standpoint so uh I will routinely have people interface with me as if I'm saying Trump is right he has to do this this is wonderful it's going to work i'm not at all saying that i'm saying this is the logic of what they're laying out this might be a hidden layer and if
• 12:00 - 12:30 these things are accurate it should play out like this and now like everybody I'm just going to watch and see if my mental map is accurate um I've already explained what I'm actually doing with my money so people don't need to guess about what bags I'm pumping or anything like that i'm just I'm trying to mentally map the world and see if I'm I end up being accurate not so I can feel good about being right so I can say "Cool this map of the world of this moment had a high degree of predictive validity." That's it that's all I'm going for um so yeah I I think that this
• 12:30 - 13:00 system is so complicated they're running what I call the shoot me in the ear bro strategy where it's like explain that oh my god so when Trump first got shot in the ear somebody who I know and respect said he probably just faked it and he was just doing it for attention and I was like hold on you actually think that he said to somebody "Go ahead shoot this off my head." Sure graze my ear uh I was
• 13:00 - 13:30 that that's so dangerous there's no way yeah this feels like that it's so high risk what he's doing if he pulls it off and this ends well uh and we completely reorganize the world order in America's favor and we now get to take advantage of being the world's either first or second largest economy depending on who you speak to uh and we get all that benefit resounding to the US we get out of all of the problems that we have with China controlling all of our
• 13:30 - 14:00 manufacturing that is crazy we are in a cold war with very high potential for being a kinetic war with China they they can't control your manufacturing so that has to change uh but the way that he's going about it with the just hyperaggressive ultra fast is shoot me in the ear and so if you nick him and he just bleeds a little and is like the world's trying to kill me and now everybody rallies around him amazing uh but an inch in either
• 14:00 - 14:30 direction and he's dead yeah so this is uh when I really go prognostication mode I'm like it starts working but not in time for the midterms he loses the midterms uh it flips they no longer control the house he becomes lame duck and Republicans are out in four years that's like if I were gonna say 5149 because again I really do feel like I'm guessing it's just such a complicated system that would be I would give the edge to that it just won't work in time even if ultimately it would have one
• 14:30 - 15:00 thing that I've seen so the last time we had this big of a draw down in the markets was um in 2022 October 2022 when Biden was president and nobody was saying it was all Biden's fault granted he didn't go throw a grenade to your point uh or the illustration that you gave uh but today this morning in the gym I saw on the news right it's just like Trump Trump and it's all his fault and a lot of he did did move by um executive order so a lot of it is sort of on him but if they're going to assign this whole crash to him if he pulls it off they're going to have to give him
• 15:00 - 15:30 all the credit for it and they won't so brace himself for that and they won't but I want to go back uh you said that the risk is so high i want to put a pin in that and come back to that but just going back to um we do have no idea of the future tomorrow's not guaranteed for any of us certainly it's a complex system but um I want to talk about the competency of the people so I mean I saw I've seen many interviews of Howard Lutnik uh I don't know if you saw the one of them on the all-in pod i mean that's great
• 15:30 - 16:00 very smart very capable um the way that he's looking at um things like he said like you hear about the the debt of the country 36 trillion you hear about the deficit of the country you hear about the income and the expense of the country but as a business owner there's a number that's glaring that's missing out of that what about the balance sheet and like just hearing like an approach like that in a business mind number one but then you have Bent and you said you listen to him quite a bit he gave a
• 16:00 - 16:30 pretty good interview on Tucker recently and Um I see a lot of people on Twitter and YouTube people that I respect people that I know and people that I align with their worldview and they're just telling "Whoa this guy's making all these mistakes he didn't understand this he didn't understand that." It's like you're not smarter than Scott Basent so Scott Bassent's pedigree right he worked for the GOAT the greatest of all time Draen Miller the second greatest of all time um Soros but specifically what he did working for those guys right
• 16:30 - 17:00 specifically what they did was take down countries and manipulate currencies that's what they did dude take down the Bank of England the Bank of England not Not a rando like small country that's hyperinflating their currency the Bank of England it's pretty crazy the Bank of England so basically he was hired to do the opposite of that so understanding what makes the Bank of England vulnerable what makes other they've taken down many other countries
• 17:00 - 17:30 since the Bank of England what makes those countries vulnerable being overleveraged being off sides and now he's been hired as he said on Tucker like to sell dollars around the world right so he understands that part so what could we do to do the opposite of that but more specifically I mean you took down Bank of England but China is a pretty big thing uh game if we would call it that right um so understanding what makes the US dangerous and how how can we derisk the US but then specifically what are China's leverage points and and and you
• 17:30 - 18:00 know he he said on Tucker a couple times that he sees China in a recession depression maybe we can box them in um we have no idea but to say that he doesn't know what he's doing would be I think uh a mistake aggressively aggressively yeah i mean listen I think that uh if you're going to have anybody run the playbook that they're running you've got some of the greatest capital allocators on planet Earth who have made unimaginable amounts of money by saying "I understand how
• 18:00 - 18:30 global economics works." And I'm going to bet hugely that I'm accurate right and they've won and so over and over and over so many of these guys that I look at that are just like the world's greatest capital allocators I'm like "Huh?" They're all like "This could work." Listen take Ray Dallio i think you and I may see him a little bit differently yeah uh but nonetheless Ry has made just un unimaginable amounts of money doing this game uh has this crazy
• 18:30 - 19:00 historical perspective and he's he's very much in my camp which is you have to do something because of what's going on with China you have to do something because of the debt like these things cannot stand right so given that given that inaction is not an option right and that's what I want to ask then it's like what do you do now again if you listen to Trump it's like that's way too crazy i don't want to do that and maybe there is some of that maybe he's doing way too much art of the deal all that stuff and he's pissing off all of our allies and they're going to be very necessary for
• 19:00 - 19:30 us to weather this storm well uh but when you listen to Letic Besson it's like okay I at least understand what you guys are trying to do yeah so some of the early signs are there that again if you can graze the ear and not shoot the patient in the head yeah uh it could work but we'll see and to be very specific the big thing I would think people should look look at right now if you really want to understand part of the game they're playing whether this is going to work because of how much of the
• 19:30 - 20:00 debt has to be refinanced you've got to get the yield on the 10-year Treasury down and they're doing it now the question is do you like the method by which they're doing it that's a different question but they're already driving it down they could keep loading the front end like Janet Yellen did and and just for comparison Janet Yellen was a academic a Kenzian academic an MMTer again back to Bent o an academic like just MMT freaks me out right so she's a
• 20:00 - 20:30 MMT academic bent literally ran the playbook for the two greatest investors of all time and you said uh we're successful stanley Dook Miller is the goat because 30 years without a loss it's crazy without a loss crazy it's it's crazy um but back to the risk so the risk is really high to your point get my ear take my head out but to your point in action really isn't an option either and sort of made that that statement so he said like the top 10% owns 88% of equities 88%
• 20:30 - 21:00 40% owns 12% of the market and the bottom 50 are in debt so it's not working for them and so like we have this massive risk if we don't do something to debt all these things um so I think that's interesting i think um at the time of this recording which is the 7th um the latest I saw already 80 countries have already come together saying they want to strike a deal that's what the latest I saw today um even the EU now said they're ready to strike a
• 21:00 - 21:30 deal and and go go down to zero so seems like it's coming together pretty quickly uh probably not for China yeah China's making very different noises with their face so uh we'll see how it plays out but yeah I mean they're Look how much of this is here how much of it's real i have not seen coming from China this directly but I've heard about it indirectly that they're prepared to go all the way yeah uh where it's like okay you guys don't want to play ball not only are we going to do retaliatory
• 21:30 - 22:00 strikes with tariffs but we're now going to openly sell your IP again I don't know that's true i want to be very clear i am unfortunately right now spreading rumors but that is certainly a weapon that they have in their toolkit that a lot of other countries don't uh the thing that they have gotten extremely good at and this is not derogatory they've gotten very good at going "Cool that's how it's done now we're going to show you how to do it at scale hyper efficiently." And so they've gotten just ridiculously good at that and so they do
• 22:00 - 22:30 have and this this goes back to this whole idea of choke points um they have a choke point for us on manufacturing they have because of that they have a choke point on us from an IP perspective and you can't let those play out negatively and this is exactly how things escalate this is how you go from a cold war to something that threatens to be kinetic really fast because if they do that with our IP we have to get aggressive so it's I mean there's there's Taiwan on the table you know
• 22:30 - 23:00 potentially taking Taiwan there's um dumping US treasuries which is another option would force the QE um so there's a lot of things that China could do but I did see today also that Trump said that um I think by the 10th that he's going to increase their tariffs another 50% yep like so yeah it could escalate but that's retaliation for the retaliation right so we'll see how that all plays out but China is not being consiliatory at all and so this is the part that worries me so you have the the two players on the board that matter you
• 23:00 - 23:30 have the US and China that are being escalatory with each other and now they're going to be fighting for allies and so uh you hear Elon making noises about hey we should basically have free trade with Europe we should be able to go back and forth i mean as if America and the EU were all part of the European Union and let anybody go where anybody wants um so I get where he's coming from and he sees America and Europe as like a super ally because then we really if we were truly locked step with Europe which
• 23:30 - 24:00 we are aggressively not but if we were truly in lock step with Europe now we've got enough economic might that we could really stand up to uh China economically but we'll see lines will be drawn i think you I think I think that's looking only at one component of the board if you look at other components of the board so it's not just the tariffs right it's making it making America easier to invest in so strengthening the dollar and the treasury asset number one if China if if Bessen thinks that
• 24:00 - 24:30 China's boxed in potentially and the yuan is going to have to be debased in order to keep up with this China's less investable and a lot of that comes back to the US but also when you add in the massive tax cuts uh the spending cuts and then the massive deregulation cuts uh I think uh and and then sort of the drill baby drill energy dominance narrative um those are other pieces of the board that I think weigh in but but we'll see we're just speculative you know speculating at this point that's
• 24:30 - 25:00 that's all we can do that's that's the fun right playing playing that but I think um history books are going to be talked about this period in time that is for sure so we get the benefit of living through that is it the benefit uh I'd really like to learn from it that is for sure so moving forward I will be armed with a lot more information but um yeah there is a supposed Chinese curse may you live
• 25:00 - 25:30 in interesting times and uh we live in interesting times and humans don't like change in the volatility there's certainly opportunity but it will also the average person if it goes south the average person just gets clobbered well not the 50% of people who own nothing no it'll be worse for them for sure because they have no protective mechanism so the problem is when you were saying that we'd have to turn to QE the good news is that would make the debt manageable so you in my words you
• 25:30 - 26:00 steal from all Americans uh which just absolutely decimates the poor and working class but you steal from everybody by inflating the money supply um and now that makes the debt worth far less and it becomes far easier to pay off if you can get some economic growth so if you can both weaken the dollar keep the reserve currency and through deregulation unlock GDP growth you actually can pull this off but if you're doing it through QE then you're going to exacerbate the um difference between the
• 26:00 - 26:30 rich and the poor and that will get ugly and it really does become a uh let them eat flat screens moment where sure people have a lot of cheap stuff but um that's how revolutions start so it yeah that that is the one that I think is most immoral but there's a couple thoughts on that like one uh Bent talked about on Tucker how last year 2024 summer of 2024 we had two records set number one record was more Americans visiting Europe in the summer than on
• 26:30 - 27:00 record but we also had more Americans going to food banks on record at the same time and so that's sort of that divide if you will and unfortunately to your point um as the debasement continues then your wages buy less and less and more people go to the food bank yeah and I imagine your audience completely understands that the problem is that the average American doesn't so they they just do not understand how money actually works they don't understand the dangers of debt they
• 27:00 - 27:30 don't understand how it could possibly be bad that the government is giving them money uh and so we end up in this death spiral well they can tell something's wrong they can tell they're getting screwed but they don't understand how so this has been the conundrum of the last three years of my life is as I've learned about how money actually works because when COVID hit I thought okay I've worked in the inner cities i had a thousand employees that grew up like hard hard hard hard and when COVID lockdowns happened I thought they're all going to lose their jobs and
• 27:30 - 28:00 they're just going to be toast so I started making financial content to help them out and to to hope that I could give them some understanding of how they're going to weather this storm and as I started because I've always been good at making money but not investing money and so I wanted to learn about investing so I could help them out and as I started learning about it I was like "Wait a second." Like this does not work the way that I thought it did uh and realized oh my god that printing money if I was going to oversimplify my own stance would be printing money is
• 28:00 - 28:30 immoral and is exactly how the rich get richer and the poor get poor i understand it's more complicated than that but when you simplify something down to its essence there's a clarity yeah I want to we're gonna we're going to talk about that we're going to talk about AI we're going to talk about Bitcoin which I consider the cheat code today but I want to go back to kind of what you just talked about there and for a minute um I want to kind of go back uh you talked about scrging in your couch cushions to having a billion dollar company and so what I see so kind of
• 28:30 - 29:00 going back to this sort of trade war bringing back jobs um the the tale of two Americans if you will it's not just that the US offshored its manufacturing base which it did but those were low-level jobs and so bringing back t-shirts and sneakers to the US for manufacturing is not an answer for that right so nations have to grow their way out of it and we grew our way out of it like technology takes low-level tasks so we can work on higher value tasks but it's it's more about moving from the industrial age to the information age so
• 29:00 - 29:30 right we had those uh giant manufacturing facilities and everybody smart and dumb worked equally on the assembly lines we had this massive middle class but in the information age now a person with a laptop and AI can create a billion dollar business i mean we'll see that right and so then it's like almost more like a meritocracy so we have all these people who were trained from an industrial school system with an industrial mindset but now they find themselves in this information age but they're not equipped with the mindset or the tools in order to succeed in that world so they still think in
• 29:30 - 30:00 terms of like just get a job and that job will take care of me as opposed to I should learn I should change my mindset to learn skill sets and use those skill sets to bring more value to increase the money amount of money I make because we have make money and then we have invest money so I'm curious i mean your own mindset shift right going from the couch cushions to your point to a billion dollar company you had to learn that model and is that something that you're trying to teach in this you said your workers right trying to kind of teach them how this works are you trying to
• 30:00 - 30:30 kind of give them that mindset okay so I think you have to you have to face really two things um I want to take a break real quick and just say that there's only so much you can learn through videos yeah build your knowledge build your skills but you need to build your relationships relationships plus skills equals money so come build your relationships and your knowledge at the Bitcoin conference May 27th through 29th in Las Vegas i'm going to be there speaking for the fourth year in a row and lots of other people way bigger than me entertainment politics media finance
• 30:30 - 31:00 you name it they'll be there so come check it out save some money with my code Mark Moss or I'll put a link down below if you use my code to save some money I'm going to do a private meetup just for you and some of my friends so let me know use that code save some money send me a message and we'll get you in the private meetup and I hope to see you in Las Vegas generational poverty is a mindset problem it's not a money problem i expect that to be very inflammatory it is every time I say it but nonetheless having seen it up close you realize wait a second this guy's
• 31:00 - 31:30 smarter than me and he's going nowhere fast so good hardware bad software um the really bad news is while it is very possible for somebody to change their mindset as an adult I I ballpark it this is not a real number but this is so directionally accurate that if people form their worldview with this it will have high predictive validity only 2% of people are capable or willing what however you want to say it to change their mindset once they're an adult uh
• 31:30 - 32:00 so I learned pretty quickly that I am a filtering mechanism i've given up on changing adults that are in the 98% maybe there will come somebody who's better than me and and they can do it but I've really really tried so long before there was a camera on me long before I thought about YouTube any of that um I told my employees I will come in early i will stay late i will teach you anything that I know about entrepreneurship because I want you to be here one I want you to be the best person you can be that benefits me but I
• 32:00 - 32:30 want you to stay here not because you feel forced i want you to stay here because you know I care more about your future than your own mother so started what I called Quest University and literally I taught them anything to the point that we had three uh of the people that the sort of informal students that came through that started competitive nutrition companies so I was like I will tell you anything and three students started competing companies out of how many oh god thousands no not hundreds but we hundreds hundreds for sure
• 32:30 - 33:00 and in all of that there was also two students that were in it and one of them punched another one in the face because he said "You've changed you've started reading." And I was just like "Wow." So I'm up against like really stupid cultural programming and the people that actually did something the 2% have some obviously not all but some have gone on to start
• 33:00 - 33:30 companies that are still running today and I'll get texts from them and updates i'm just like this is so gratifying and then I remember how many people that I tried to explain this stuff to and walk them through uh so anyway that becomes the genesis of the YouTube channel and I'm like okay I want to impart this mindset advice and again realize I'm the bat symbol in the sky i throw it up and the people for whom that already matches they respond and a big part of the reason I started changing my content because my first few years in YouTube
• 33:30 - 34:00 were all mindset that's all I talked about and I just realized that for the vast majority of people engaging with that content it was spiritual entertainment and I'm like I'm already rich so this does not make sense this is not interesting for me what do you mean spiritual entertainment i have a 2hour declining arc of influence on people and I can make them feel like anything is possible and they feel very good very capable but then they have to come back for more come back for more come back for more because
• 34:00 - 34:30 they're not actually trying to gain a set of skills that allow them to go execute in the world in that hyper uncertain world that we were talking about a few minutes ago that's not what they're looking for what they're looking for is the narcotic-like feeling that they could do that if they wanted to right and that feels so good that they just never do anything with it right and that's wholly uninteresting to me so by temperament I'm just like "Okay well if that's how this works then I'm not interested." So I began reinventing my
• 34:30 - 35:00 channel uh to get to what I do now which is talk about the most important things you should be thinking about in your life because if you get it right the consequences financially emotionally longevity of relationships all of that it's going to matter so much and if you get it wrong your life is worth on every measurable metric from wealth health um emotional stability progress which is a foundational pillar of human happiness i mean just literally every dimension so um that's the focus now but okay so all
• 35:00 - 35:30 of that is around just that idea of um how do you help people with a mindset thing but the second part that you have to face is that some people do not have the intellectual horsepower and no matter what you teach them they are forever going to need a blue collar job and I'll even say maybe it's not intellectual horsepower maybe it's just temperament maybe it's skill set that their skill set is so visceral that they
• 35:30 - 36:00 need to make things build things touch things move things they need to live in the world of electrons and move them around and evolution for so long could not overindex on the thinkers the intellectuals who now run the world but they certainly did not for millennia right so I think what we're learning now is you hollow that bluecollar segment of your population out at your own peril first they start killing themselves and you can actually
• 36:00 - 36:30 see deaths of despair bringing down the life expectancy of men if you take out the deaths of despair it bounces back to normal so it's so frequent that it is impacting the national stat on the length of male life in America that's so insane to me so I'm like you have to address that so I bang the drum for you've got to bring some manufacturing back to the US because there are humans by temperament or intellectual power they have to be in the world of physical
• 36:30 - 37:00 electrons moving them around just period full stop end of story and unless we start genetically modifying people like you're going to have a base of largely men that you either keep numb or brace yourself for impact when they revolt yes I would agree with that right we have to have purpose we have to have meaning we have to have something to do but does it have to be dumb labor or can it be smarter labor so for example um you could talk about the femin feminism feminism movement and how how many jobs
• 37:00 - 37:30 is taken from men uh I was just recently thinking about my own company and the amount of people we employ and how the majority of them are women even in my own company right and so like how many men are sort of put out of the workforce based off of that and those are physical jobs i mean um you know not hard labor jobs but but physical office jobs right white collar jobs I guess you would say but you know when the industrial revolution came you had a machine that could do the work of 5,000 field workers but those field workers eventually went on to do higher level things like science and medicine and things like that in this vision of Trump reonshoring
• 37:30 - 38:00 manufacturing Lutnik says yeah it's going to be automated so someone's going to have to build the facilities so there's hard you know blue lab blue collar labor there but someone's also have to build the robotics program the machines run the machines and stuff like that so to your point I mean we need the physical things but could they do those physical things or you think that people just are incapable even learning something like that you're intelligence is a spectrum and there will always be people that are going to be illsuited to
• 38:00 - 38:30 uh an information technologyonly world now AI is uh a meteorite screaming towards Earth so the things I'm saying right now I'm just ignoring that meteorite for now it has come back yet i have no doubt it's one of my favorite topics but nonetheless you really have to bifrocate your conversation into what do we do right now today versus then how do we manage that um transition period when it happens and I've written extensively in the realm of
• 38:30 - 39:00 fiction on this idea uh but you have to deal with people that certainly do not have the intellectual horsepower um to do things other than move electrons uh you got to do something so what that answer is manufacturing certainly is one obviously a lot of that's going to go to robotics now if you look backwards and this is always a good test when you look backwards every time a new technology comes into place
• 39:00 - 39:30 it ends up creating more jobs not less even though it always seems like it's about to put everybody out of work and then it just opens up all these new avenues and the people with the talents flood in so as an act of faith I choose to believe that that will happen here as well that there is something I just can't conceive of yet that will if people can uplevel their skills that's the problem that's the conundrum for you okay more jobs yes but are the people able to go into those jobs no so this is where I want people to remember 2% of
• 39:30 - 40:00 people can make that kind of change 98% won't evolution of culture or otherwise never cares about any given generation so evolution does not care if we're about to introduce a utopia but some people just can't cross that threshold because they completely emotionally derail because they can see I am getting left behind i am a trucker i'm not going to learn to code i don't want to work in a robotics factory like that person but those were things they refuse to do i don't want to learn how to code i refuse to work in a robotics yeah but that's
• 40:00 - 40:30 the fact that that's what you're up against anything else is an abstraction so humans are such that if they've spent if they're a 45year-old they are going to many many many of them it will never be 100% thank God but many many me the overwhelming majority will not be willing to make that transition it will be too hard on them and so they will check out and those are the deaths of despair you're talking about that'll be one avenue um depending on what age they are
• 40:30 - 41:00 uh it may also manifest as active rebellion yeah when I was a kid I didn't want to eat my vegetables and my dad would tell my mom if he's hungry enough he'll eat and I think about like uh you know the sign in the in the state parks don't feed the animals because the animals become dependent but humans aren't animals right so like if we're hungry enough we're going to go dig a hole we're going to go we'll go work I would think so I'm afraid of you know people are calling for like uh the the need for UBI
• 41:00 - 41:30 to offset that that sort of uh you know problem that you're talking about but it seems like if we didn't have that safety net people would go work right depends on how disruptive this moment is going to be i think the reason that so many people they reach into their brain and say "How do we solve this problem how do we re-educate people?" All of that and they understand the rate of change most people do not understand the rate of change of AI so think about this if Sam Alman is right and it's 300% year overyear okay first of all
• 41:30 - 42:00 that's more than uh exponential growth so that's like it in fact if you want to make it exponential it's exponential growth every 5.9 months so that is almost a percentage improvement every day and we're seeing it yeah it's crazy so the rate of change is going to hit people like a sledgehammer like even if they're able to adapt to wave 1 wave two those are going to be like done in six months so what do you do when it's wave
• 42:00 - 42:30 three four five and they're like I I can't keep up i don't want to keep up anymore this is too confusing people will get paralyzed by the fear of all the change and when you really start thinking through this problem eventually your brain hands you back a null signal that says "I don't know what to do i don't know what this is going to look like." This is what everybody calls the technological event horizon and or the singularity so you're at a point where you can no longer predict the future not not even a future that's 6 months away so at that point I'm telling you there will be massive distress and when humans
• 42:30 - 43:00 are scared they act crazy so people are like I can't have a populace that's both scared and hungry so uh it's a dark view of what's going to happen but I think that's very real we're going to go through a valley of despair before we come out the other side and we're able to capture all the energy of the sun uh and if people haven't thought about this this is not an analogy i mean this literally uh robots eat sunshine and so the way that they stay energized is
• 43:00 - 43:30 we're going to be able to capture the energy from the sun which is absolutely plentiful far more plentiful than we need to run even billions of robots to feed all the humans all of it all the manufacturing you could ever want to do it's falling on the earth i forget how long a single hour if you could capture 100% of the sunlight that is emitted from the sun how long it would run the earth it's a long time yeah so we have way more energy than we need we have a capture problem once you realize that unless AI hits an upper bound which I haven't heard anybody except maybe the storage problem yes but like again these
• 43:30 - 44:00 all are technological problems that show no known reason why we can't solve them doesn't mean there isn't one because there are certain barriers like right now it's can we make the chips fast enough right okay once we're able to make the chips fast enough can we get the energy fast enough if we can get the energy fast enough can we get the transformers fast enough and so we'll keep pushing the problem down but you're going to hit these bottlenecks but nobody looks at it and says but it we won't be able to overcome them and so if
• 44:00 - 44:30 there is no upper bound to intelligence um I will draw a uh math equation for there a [ __ ] is defined as somebody I think with an 81 IQ Einstein had like 160 whatever the actual numbers are the difference between a definitional [ __ ] and Einstein is 2.4x so Einstein was 2.4x 4x times smarter than a [ __ ] and a [ __ ] can't even get in the army so the army's like
• 44:30 - 45:00 "I can't even put you forward to get shot you'll create more problems." They're like "Hold on let me finish this otherwise it won't make sense." So you've got Einstein's 2.4x smarter than that and he's like thinking his way to fundamental insights in physics that bring about nuclear energy nuclear bombs GPS like all the things that have come of the atomic age that's 2.4x 4x smarter than a [ __ ] people are saying that AI isn't going to be 10 times smarter or a thousand times smarter or a 100,000
• 45:00 - 45:30 times or a million times they're talking about there being no upper limit which means you get into something that's a billion times smarter so if you've got Einstein being 2.4x what happens when you get to 10 so I don't even need people to buy into like the crazy far-fetched a million a billion times smarter just 10x would be unrelatable it would be a world you no one that's alive today would recognize and that what's that gonna happen in 20 years
• 45:30 - 46:00 you're really going to make me push it out 30 years but like I plan to still be alive this is not some 300 years from now problem no it's a it's a now problem i've been coaching my team today we had our our calls and I said uh what I've been harping on for the last couple weeks is like guys look I need you all to be grasping onto these tools right now because you're either going to use them or you're going to get replaced by them and our company will get replaced if we don't use these right now i want to come back to that we're going to dig into the AI piece i just want to finish this last piece though so you started
• 46:00 - 46:30 teaching mindset you realized people need it you started teaching it it started became sort of a fool's errand for you at least on YouTube but you still do coach on mindset I believe right like that's still sort of for the 2% that are actually going to do something for the So what would you say some mind shift or tools that you could give to people that might be useful for them today maybe someone who already has a little bit of high agency that's ready to sort of make that jump do you have some frameworks or blueprints 100% mindset is extraordinarily powerful and
• 46:30 - 47:00 extraordinarily simple but people don't do it because of a small handful of reasons okay uh the ultimate framework is really simple you at all times need to know what end state you are seeking what's your goal if you don't have your goal literally stop nothing matters you need to be able to say your goal in 35 words or less it needs to contain a what by when and how much so the how much is like what's the KPI how am I going to know I achieved the I want to make the world a better place okay in what way
• 47:00 - 47:30 like how will you define it you going to feed like a million people whatever it is if you've got that goal now cool goals make demands so now there's going to be a string of things you're going to have to do successfully in order to achieve that but you have to overcome what I call the chaos machine the chaos machine is life the second law of thermodynamics is that in a closed system everything moves towards disorder so if you want to bring order to a closed system you have to pour energy in so I mean it's not a metaphor that's literal so you're going to have to be
• 47:30 - 48:00 highly intentional with very directional energy to overcome the neverending set of problems that will be put before you as you try to achieve your goals most people break emotionally because it makes you confront something this is the big one that people don't understand about themselves which is that they trust their emotions and they shouldn't your emotions will lie to you all the time your emotions are merely your um your body's way of trying to express something to you from the subconscious
• 48:00 - 48:30 so it does not speak in words it speaks in feelings but those feelings are tuned to make sure that you live long enough to have kids that have kids now unless you just told me my northstar is to have kids that have kids then your emotions are going to be out of step with that so now what people have to do instead of steering by emotion which is I'm telling you the vast majority of the planet steers by emotions they do the things that make them feel the way they want to feel and they avoid the things that make them feel the way they don't want to
• 48:30 - 49:00 feel but if you're going to make progress you're going to fail a lot and failure is not going to make you feel the way you want to feel unless you pull a trick which I'll get to in a second so the rule is you have your goal you know exactly what you need to do that goal now makes demands all of those demands are basically how you're going to overcome the obstacles between where you are and where you want to get to and there's only one way to do that and that is to think from first principles using what I call the physics of progress so progress works in a certain way and you're going to take the framework of
• 49:00 - 49:30 the scientific method and you're going to recontextualize it for life for business for relationships whatever it is a minor tweak but it's still the same idea and that is you're gonna say I know where I want to go and I know what the obstacle is between where I'm at and where I want to get to and now I'm going to come up with my best guess my hypothesis on how to overcome that obstacle and the physics of progress is a me thing so uh other people basic everybody does the same thing that's why
• 49:30 - 50:00 I call it the physics everybody calls it something different uh the only way to run it is to think from first principles so you have to get out from under your emotions you have to be asking yourself one simple question how does the world actually work and then to understand that your brain lies to you all the time your brain is a um shortcut machine it is always looking for a rule of thumb like how does this work i just want to get the gist the problem is if your gist is wrong then it's going to lead you nowhere fast but because people build their self-esteem about around being
• 50:00 - 50:30 better faster stronger smarter they focus on being right because it makes them feel good and they want to do the things that make them feel the way they want to feel and so this is what you see in politics this is what you see everybody screaming over tariffs because everybody wants to be right right and this is why you see me banging the drum i'm just trying to figure out if I've mapped the world accurately now why do I care about that because my life is driven by what I just walked you through i know what my goal is trying to get there that goal makes a whole bunch of demands i'm going up against the chaos machine but I know something that
• 50:30 - 51:00 seemingly a lot of people do not internalize which is that skills have utility meaning I don't read a book so I can say that I read it i read a book because it gives me information i turn that information into a thing I can now do in the real world that other people don't know how to do that allows me to overcome more obstacles to out compete them and make progress so I don't care if I embarrass myself by saying "This is what I think is going to happen there's a 51% chance that this all goes wrong and then it goes swimmingly and it just looked like it was guaranteed or it just completely crashes and burns and all the people that were like "See I told you
• 51:00 - 51:30 so." I'm like "Yeah I don't care about that you have completely misjudged what I'm trying to do here i needed to plant a flag which is why people can get me to answer a question literally about anything." And I'll say "Okay this is how I'm thinking about it now because I'm not I don't care if they make fun of me in a year what I know is skills have utility and that as long as I learn my lesson I can go I thought this but this actually ended up happening that means that I have an an a wrong vision of how the world works but this gave me a little bit more information and because I don't have an ego about it I'm just
• 51:30 - 52:00 going to be like cool I'm going to update my thinking now i'm ready to move forward in a more effective way uh and so if people just run that all day every day they can have all the success that their emotional stability their drive and their level of intellect will allow that was a really good walkthrough on that mental model well thank you starting with the end in mind living with intentionality right on on everything
• 52:00 - 52:30 um it's something that I come across quite a bit it's somewhere I've spent a lot of my time thinking about lately i have some high-end coaching programs and we coach some very successful people and I find that they're not they come to me with basic very vague questions like should I buy Bitcoin should I sell this asset should I sell my business should I whatever right and they're never able to come to any type of decisions and I found after years of doing this it's because none of them are clear on where they're trying to go they don't know what problem they're trying to solve
• 52:30 - 53:00 specifically so then almost no path looks correct it's uh the Alice in Wonderland right like which path should I go i don't know where you're trying to go i don't know well then any path will do right um what would you say cuz you've spent a lot of time thinking about this what would you say if you were to go go down go downtown and stop a hundred people how many of them could articulate in 35 words or less um their specific goal zero zero i have people in my program that have listened to my classes they come before me for the live part and I'm like
• 53:00 - 53:30 "Cool what's your goal yeah they think they know that's the terrifying part so this is uh and listen everything I teach I teach because I made all of these mistakes i am constantly catching myself falling into the same traps so this is not me like see I get it and you guys don't this is me just like I get what it what it's like to be a human uh but we are all trapped inside of a brain that uses emotions to make us act and people think
• 53:30 - 54:00 they're making decisions based on logic but they're not they're making decisions based on feelings that give them the ability to act and once I realized oh my emotions are actually not good at detecting what I need to do in order to make progress and so I'll end up in this eternal loop of doing what feels good protecting my ego never wanting to admit that I'm wrong and that's going to go nowhere fast so what if I flipped it and said I'm going to value myself for my willingness to stare nakedly at my inadequacies and so I'm going to be
• 54:00 - 54:30 proud of the fact that I can be laughed at longer than the next person that people can think I'm a fool but behind the scenes my knowledge is growing growing growing growing growing and so I take myself from scrging my couch cushions to find enough change to put gas in my car to go to a job interview to ultimately building my multiple companies selling one of them for a billion dollars so once you do that you realize whoa like actually getting good at things is the name of the game but in a way where like the Kobe Bryant quote
• 54:30 - 55:00 booze don't block dunks meaning no matter how much somebody hates you if you're good enough they can't stop you and so becoming obsessed with that idea is ultimately the thing that frees people but you have to get out from under the how bad it feels when you realize that you're wrong so anyway the whole idea is that feelings will make it feel like the story you're telling yourself is true instead of a hypothesis and so they have a vague sense of what they want to do feels good and so
• 55:00 - 55:30 because it feels good they believe they have clarity but they don't the next question is I want to shift into AI but this piece is actually a segue that I think is really important so um I just had this coaching program here last week and I brought in some highlevel entrepreneurs and this time I decided to get a little bit smarter and I sent them pre-work and this pre-work was for them to do some exercises spend a couple hours to figure out really clearly specifically a smart goal what it is they're trying to achieve so that
• 55:30 - 56:00 we could spend the time here for a day and a half building on top of that and they came back with the most vague ideas even after I gave them very detailed specific prompts mental exercise all these things right and so what I find is that I often say that the quality of your life come down to the questions that you ask great quote and when you ask vague questions you get back vague answers and so they all came with these very vague goals and I'm like I So then
• 56:00 - 56:30 we have to spend half the day just trying to get clear on the goals right and so that's that's problem number one and so what I find from that is now if we take that into AI and a lot of people think that AI is going to make them so much smarter i don't find that to be the case because people can't think clearly they can't think specifically and they ask terrible questions so when you ask AI write me a book what are you gonna give should I buy Bitcoin like what do you is my investment portfolio de-risisk like when
• 56:30 - 57:00 you ask it broad vague questions you're going to get back terrible answers and so really these types of people who are unable to think clearly and ask smart specific questions aren't really going to be able to get the full benefit of a tool like AI facts yeah that is uh it well so right now I'll say I'm kind of glad because we're in this narrow window that I expect to be very brief where uh we all still matter in the process right so
• 57:00 - 57:30 my thing is that um I so for people that don't know anything about me or know my story I got into business because I went to film school i wanted to make movies and I just could not figure out how to break into the industry finally uh write a script gets turned into a film it was a horrible experience i was completely devastated uh had met these two very successful entrepreneurs and they said "Listen men you're coming to the world with your hand out and if you want to control the art you have to control the resources so you should get into business and get rich." And I was like
• 57:30 - 58:00 "Yeah that's a brilliant idea." I thought it would take 18 months took 15 years but it worked and along the way I realized all the things that we're talking about here skills have utility that you can control your own life but it was a uh very grueling process of realizing all of the things that I try to teach people but everybody ends up getting locked in that um I'm lost and I don't realize I'm lost and that's the
• 58:00 - 58:30 problem so take taste this is the biggest thing with AI if you don't realize that you're asking AI to do something that you don't have any taste in you're in trouble so right now when AI hands me back an answer on like a screenplay that I'm working on I'll be like "That doesn't make sense that's cheesy that's not working." And then the AI is going to say as it's trained to do "You're right." Now what if I'm not right and that's how you get into a death spiral people either take the first thing it gives them not understanding the AI is meant to zoom in
• 58:30 - 59:00 on what's the most likely thing someone will say which means it's sort of the most blah answer ever you've got to get into like a really narrow band over here where it's like okay this is unique this is fresh i want to bring these different ideas together no no no that's not quite right and then you can polish on top and so it basically becomes a way to cut down a lot of work that would otherwise stall you out coding is the easy one it's like as soon as you start you know to write that file that you've written a thousand times it always has to be like
• 59:00 - 59:30 customuilt it just autopop populates right and so now it speeds you up whatever 2 3 5 10x uh and it will obviously just keep going keep going and get better but right now is a pretty magical window where if you have built a set of skills the AI will extend your capabilities i think of it like an exoskeleton like you can now bend over and pick up a much heavier weight than you could before but if you're already strong then it's amplifying a really good base yeah
• 59:30 - 60:00 what I found is I've been an entrepreneur investor my career since I was 18 i started buying homes in South Central LA fixing and flipping them and I've built dozens of businesses and exits and all these things and this wide arrange of things and I'm this massive generalist i'm the uh jack of all trades master of none and for the first time that's to my benefit because AI can make me instantly deep in each one of those pieces right so um all of a sudden to your point this exoskeleton like I just feel like I'm just like plugged in and like we can just tap into all this thing
• 60:00 - 60:30 but going back to that for a second so if the majority of people back to the mindset thing don't know what they want can't think specifically can't think clearly don't know what questions to ask the AI isn't going to help them be any better at it and so what you're going to have is the small percentage the 2% of people that you said that are able to ask good questions and are able to think strategically are going to be able to tap into this technology and those 2% of people will continue to see the smaller amount of narrow uh this divide between
• 60:30 - 61:00 wealth and poor right where the 2% are going to excel and the majority of people don't know how to use the tool and they're going to fall further and further behind and so it sort of exacerbates that you did a you did an interview with Mark Andresen and uh that that was really good and warned about you know this AI information war things like that and you talked about you know the impact on jobs which we're sort of talking about but you said there's one job AI can't do so is that the hope for some people what AI can't do
• 61:00 - 61:30 uh that anything that we think AI can't do right now will be short-lived I think ultimately once Once AI is truly agentic and embodied and smarter than any human alive there just isn't going to be anything that AI can't do your only thing is it's not human and some people are going to care deeply about that um I don't think that will be only benefit i think that there will be violence what I
• 61:30 - 62:00 call from new Puritans who really assue certainly the technological augmentation of a human they're going to rebel against that um we are already bringing back extinct species people are paying attention yep so first the direwolf which hasn't been seen in 10,000 years uh next up they're doing a woolly mammoth and like actually bring them back not like simulations like you can go pet a direwolf uh so humans will
• 62:00 - 62:30 eventually start modifying our own DNA um and people are going to have a problem with that some people have a problem with that people are already augmenting themselves with technology if you've ever seen anybody with a coclear implant you've now got the people from um Neuralink that can play video games with their minds and the guys that play it with their minds are saying "You're going to have to create a league for us because we're so much better than people that actually have to use a mouse and keyboard or a controller." That's a real
• 62:30 - 63:00 thing yeah right now this very minute wow i mean it is the exoskeleton right so we have seen robotics helping people that are paralyzed things like that and these are just to your point augmented technologies that sort of help us do that I saw today there was a all over Twitter was the Shopify CEO had a internal memo leaked I don't know if you saw that I didn't know so there was an internal memo leak from the Shopify CEO and it mandated that AI usage be a
• 63:00 - 63:30 fundamental expectation for all employees So you won't get a job at Shopify if you're not proficient in it but but even more than that integrating AI proficiency into performance reviews and encouraging AI exploration in project prototyping so now getting the job is a require well having AI skills is a requirement to get the job but in your job reviews if you're not growing in your skill and proficiency with it that will count against you in your job performance for sure for sure now is
• 63:30 - 64:00 that getting backlash uh well what happened is it got leaked and so it was like going all over you know Twitter and the so the CEO came out and said "Hey here it is." Boom and just like put it out there yeah like that seems so self-evident and you you said at the beginning like you're either going to use it or you're going to get replaced by somebody who used I mean that's what I'm telling my internal team 100% everybody should be It's crazy right like if you're not saying that you're going to get blindsided you're going to get blindsided and we have this you you said we have this period of time um you said where we still matter i was thinking something different um the
• 64:00 - 64:30 saying is that the future is not evenly distributed and so I tell my team we have about a year before everybody catches up and so if we go super hard right now we have about a year to really gap people and I think that's going to be super important man we're having those same conversations inside impact theory for sure yeah now um AI is amazing but what I've been really thinking about and starting to we're I brought a person on just to start building this out as AI agents and you mentioned that before so you think
• 64:30 - 65:00 about like AI agents which um there was a book that I read probably 15 years ago and it was um maybe yeah about that it was called a whole new mind by Daniel Pink and it talked about how we have a creative side of our brain and an analytical side of our brain and how you know several hundred years ago they thought we didn't need the creative side of our brain and they were doing labbotoies and all these things and so the entire world has been built up for the analytical thinker and SAT scores so schools built for analytical thinkers and SAT scores are analytical thinkers and that has been the right path um my
• 65:00 - 65:30 mom wanted me to go be an engineer right that that was the path she wanted me to go down i didn't want to do that but he said that the internet commoditized technical workers cuz what happened is it opened up the world so now I can go on to Upwork or Fiverr and I can hire a coder or a programmer or a coder or whatever and now they're in Pakistan or and they're in India or wherever they are and so all it commoditized these technical workers and so he said that the new world is going to be driven by the creative thinker so not the technical worker more like a conductor
• 65:30 - 66:00 of an orchestra i don't know how to play the instruments better than any of you but I can make you make beautiful music together right and so you have uh all these countries basically coming out of poverty with BOP skills right and so they're they're commoditized technical workers and whether that be research assistants whether that be parallegals doing briefs or coders or accountants or whatever it is and so if I were hire somebody on Fiverr to go do SEO for me that's an autonomous agent but now we
• 66:00 - 66:30 can just program AI to do that and this is rap this is gaining speed at a rapid rapid rapid rate so I'm curious what your thoughts are on that my well do you see AI agents doing to disrupt sort of the world and at what speed before I give my thoughts uh the speed will be extremely rapid uh so by 2027 you'll have agents you'll have AI basically
• 66:30 - 67:00 helping to write AI improvements running a lot of the experimentations and so you'll have decades of advancements in a week and the that's the the very shrewd minds in the space the guys that like have been making these predictions that have been coming true are the ones saying that that's not me making that number up uh so it's 2025 already we're rapidly approaching the middle of 2025
• 67:00 - 67:30 so this is less than 24 months away that you're seeing like this kind of blinding speed um what they call the intelligence explosion so that's coming very fast that will create a work environment for sure that nobody can conceive of you you are at that point official like 2028 is beyond the technological event horizon no nobody knows what's going to what 2028 is going to look like so the fact
• 67:30 - 68:00 that something three years from now is like ah I can't even begin to tell you what that's going to look like uh so in the workforce the only way from where I'm sitting to make any sense of this is what you said at the beginning which is you need to be at the edge of it you need to be deploying it using it improving your skill sets figuring out how do I whatever it is that I'm doing how do I make this work and the people that are going to pull away are the people that have taste that understand when something's good and when it's not um people that have something that they want to build and they have the courage
• 68:00 - 68:30 to go build that thing i think about it a lot it's like taking if you take the US economy and it's like a big sheet of glass and there's like a few really big companies and then you know sort of a handful of little one medium ones and then for the most part everything else just these small companies you are about to drop that and those big companies that make up the vast majority of this sheet of glass are just going to shatter into a ton of small companies and I can't remember if you said it before we
• 68:30 - 69:00 started rolling but there's going to be many billion-dollar companies made by one two or three people they get together they deploy full AI orgs and they just run they um give the AI agents like money the ability to move to buy things to do whatever they need to do and all of a sudden all of those employees that you would have historically had they just go away and
• 69:00 - 69:30 so the question becomes what does it look like when let's say even 30% of the the total workforce now starts their own company like what does that do how many things will that commoditize how far will that push innovation and then how long will it last before it's like actually human you're just kind of slowing me down and I'm the AI and it's like you know how about you just tell me what you want done and I go do it and you sort of sit at home the utopian
• 69:30 - 70:00 dream yeah i mean sort of so the there were two books written about the future that were hyper preient one has already come true one may be about to come true and that's 1984 the surveillance state as terrifying as advertised right then you've got a brave new world which was a world of plenty where everybody does drugs to numb themselves and in a world where you don't have to work for anything finding meaning and purpose is not going to be
• 70:00 - 70:30 easy yeah if you think about like the base law of economics is based off of scarcity yep and so when you think about work and labor and knowledge it's also built on scarcity so an attorney is able to charge a premium because they have a scarcity of knowledge that they've been able to acquire or a doctor has scarcity of knowledge they've been able to acquire but when when when knowledge no longer has scarcity how does that change and to your point about the agents um I
• 70:30 - 71:00 saw this uh so we have like I said I brought somebody on and we're building out these agent workflows and I saw this breakdown of somebody he put it online and it was uh basically the org chart and then all the officers of the company had um agent shadows and the shadows would the agent shadows would just shadow all their calls or meetings all these things and the CEO could call on a phone call the agent shadow and discuss all the things that's been going on and now they've got each of the officers agent shadows communicating between
• 71:00 - 71:30 themselves that's awesome i mean just like that right and we're we're just in a couple months into this but when you think about like an AI agent like um go out and find the top five business models and just instantly duplicate them for me and go hire the other agents that you need and the other agents that you need and go build out this agent workforce to go duplicate this and so instantly disrupt every online company how about MCP yeah the MPC servers oh my god like the so the protocol that they're going to be using that will let these AIs talk to each other is th this
• 71:30 - 72:00 is where it's going to get crazy because right now agents will deadend pretty quickly uh but with the MCP protocol they're going to be able to go in AI will be able to talk to all other AI do their things um and so now whether it's accessing your calendar booking a flight um checking hotels I mean just I can't even imagine going through your Tinder profile for you i mean it literally anything that deploys the standard and
• 72:00 - 72:30 uh Anthropic and OpenAI have already agreed to it so that's two of the big boys um I'd be surprised if more people don't this is like the TCP IP moment for AI where now it's just like you can just hyperlink and it all connects ah that's gonna be cool yeah so this kind of takes me to the next subject that I want to jump into is is Bitcoin so when I think about Bitcoin I gave a talk at I gave the closing keynote at um the Bitcoin conference in Abu Dhabi a few months ago and I talked
• 72:30 - 73:00 about sort of this Bitcoin forecast 2030 2040 2050 and talked about how we have these 50-year repeating tech cycles and if you put Bitcoin into that it sort of gives us this road map and a lot of people think that Bitcoin has failed because it's a store of value but it's not a medium of exchange and blah blah blah but they don't understand the monetary evolution that has to happen in the time frames that happens so it hasn't failed it will get there eventually but Gresham's law states that good money drives out bad so we don't have pre65 quarters and dimes in circulation anymore because they're pure silver you wouldn't spend that and if
• 73:00 - 73:30 you did you definitely wouldn't spend it you'd save it so you spend the bad money the post 65 you save the pre right so you wouldn't want to use Bitcoin to buy a cup of coffee when I can just spend fiat to do that so then you start thinking well how does Bitcoin evolve from that store value to a medium exchange well we would want to use it only for things that it could only be used for and so then you start thinking okay what are the things that it could do that fiat can't like microtransactions high frequency transactions things like that and you start to think about AI
• 73:30 - 74:00 agents so AI agents can't have a bank account because you have to have KYC and AML they have to be a person to do that so they can have their own Bitcoin address their own Bitcoin wallet and they could do microtransactions fractions of penny back and forth at the speed of light a thousand times if they wanted to and so we're already seeing there was an AI agent that was programmed to go build a business find um uh names business plans find the domain names and went and bought a domain name using Bitcoin over the Lightning Network so we're already
• 74:00 - 74:30 seeing Truth Terminal or a different one uh I'm not sure which one it did that on uh truth terminal is crazy so it's all it's already happening and so it seems like with the AI agents they're going to need some form of payment to hire each other pay them out the cost of compute plus energy not to derail though uh so on Bitcoin I am so nonplusted by the argument that this has to be a medium of exchange uh so tell me if you think I'm just naive and I'm missing something but
• 74:30 - 75:00 uh to me the thing that would cause Bitcoin to fail is to have a currency that can't be inflated so if there was a currency that couldn't be inflated I wouldn't even think twice about Bitcoin i just about put my money in whatever that thing is bitcoin is that so right now in a world where your money is being inflated you have to have somewhere to go where your money can't be inflated so now the only catch with Bitcoin me is that people love its volatility i hate it i want it to just be a static place i
• 75:00 - 75:30 can put my money and be like "Cool this is going to be worth the same in 10 years that it is today." That's gold you got that gold also works yeah but in a a world where it becomes more and more virtual I don't under like when I think about a kid who grows up and they were let's say uh nine two years ago for them Bitcoin just exists it's just a thing people take it seriously it's an option like they don't have any sense of like oh it was born and there was a time where people thought it was weird
• 75:30 - 76:00 they're just like oh yeah Bitcoin it's like that my daughter thought everything was a touch screen she just go touch every computer oh yeah of course so I think my thesis anyway with Bitcoin people can think what they will is that the world is going to be more virtual tomorrow than it is today and one of the most important things to virtualize is money certainly don't want it to be a CBDC uh stable coin helps a lot but that's still at least as imagined right now going to be backed by a fiat currency so that doesn't solve my problem of inflation so having a
• 76:00 - 76:30 inflation resistant thing that I can self-custody uh it solves that problem so I I've obviously heard people now starting to talk about oh this has failed because it's not a medium of exchange that just doesn't even make my radar yeah gold can be but it can't like I hold gold gold can't be in the digital age and gold requires centralization to get the velocity which is why it failed yeah so why don't people complain about that because they're saying it's used in like
• 76:30 - 77:00 electronics yeah no no no one's arguing that with with with gold but back to the point so if you think about Bitcoin and the attributes and so in the monetary evolution you go from a collectible this is a cool rock feather sea shell baseball card but some collectibles most don't but some collectibles become a store of value some people put a lot of wealth in their baseball cards or Pokemon cards or whatever right art sure art sure and then some collectibles if they have the right I'm sorry store values if they have the right attribute could become a medium of exchange which would be portable durable divisible
• 77:00 - 77:30 recognizable fungeible etc and do you accept that that's an important part of Bitcoin's future uh well let me I'll I'll I'll answer that by asking you a question so if you imagine the future you said there's two books that were written that tell us the future that are uh very clear and one of them was 1984 and why is that one so scary you said uh it's an authoritarian state surveillance so the government if you read you know anatomy of the state or bastiet the law you understand the role
• 77:30 - 78:00 of the government is to always grow and to always retain power and so governments are going to try and do two things number one continue to inflate away the currency and number two continue to take more power and and more freedom away that's that's the role of the state of the government and so in North Korea you're not allowed to have money let me give you another example so Bitcoin has lots of attributes uh permissionless there's over a billion adults in the world right now today who are not allowed to use the fin the
• 78:00 - 78:30 global financial system because they don't have permission to join a billion adults there's 8 billion people i'm talking a billion adults so they don't have permission to join so think about the mind share that the world has lost of if we brought a billion adults into the world to bring more solutions and and and solve more problems and more value but they're out they left a war torn country they don't have proper documentation they are 15-year-old kid that happened to be born in the wrong country they're out so think about that they don't have
• 78:30 - 79:00 permission in the current system of of of medium exchange currency it's also censorship resistant it's also immutable so for example immutable why is that important well in India in 2016 they canceled all the big bills and you had a month to bring them all in and claim them and show all the paperwork of how you earn the bills or you lost them but India is a high cash country so a lot of people had this money saved and they lost it all it was it wasn't immutable wh why censorship resistant uh the lady
• 79:00 - 79:30 that cuts my hair is from Afghanistan she was there when she was a girl uh when the Biden administration pulled out in 2022 and it was a disaster the Taliban took it over she's like "Mark I just feel so bad i know these ladies back in Afghanistan they need so much help i'd love to send them money if there was a way but I can't because the Taliban took over the bank so it's censorship resistant." So in this future world I believe to the point I think you believe 1984 it wasn't supposed to be a playbook right an instruction manual but it seems
• 79:30 - 80:00 to be that way and in North Korea and in Afghanistan and the US dodged a curveball that Europe is trying to launch a CBDC now in that world that we're rapidly going into we will probably need I mean people today need a censorship resistant way to transmit value and so the question that you would ask yourself is do you think governments print more money or less money in the future and do you think they become more authoritarian or less authoritarian in the future now you mentioned earlier you know what AI is doing and the rise of or the divide between the rich and the poor
• 80:00 - 80:30 and potentially leading to some sort of mass civil unrest i know Rali is super big on that topic so in that if that were to happen and we got more civil unrest then what do governments do do they take more power become more authoritarian and if so do we need a way to transact outside of the state yeah all strikes me as a very good idea now I'm a much bigger believer in the wrench attack I think than a lot of people if the government wants your Bitcoin they're going to get your Bitcoin they They won't and here's why
• 80:30 - 81:00 so have you read the book Sovereign Individual i have read like the first two chapters take it as a no and you gave up on it i say I gave up it was interesting but um other things took its place and I never went back to it so if you think about like the states the the a state the country the government has a monopoly on violence obviously right but like all things there's trade-offs and there's returns right so like in 1933 when the government seized the gold it was very easy for them to seize the gold because all the gold was in the bank
• 81:00 - 81:30 right so all the gold went to the bank they gave you an IOU claim for the gold so we could speed up the velocity of money while they held the gold so it was very easy for them to put a bank holiday in place banks were closed for a week when they opened the banks back up you were no longer able to get your gold now if they had to ride out in 1930s across the plane to ranchers and farmers with guns they had to go house to house to house to house to house and where's your gold go through there where's your treasure map and they had to go dig it up would that have been realistic the
• 81:30 - 82:00 return on violence would have been way too low every one of those ranchers with guns would have fought back the chance of them finding one or two gold coins the return on violence would be too low to do that but because it was in the bank it was very easy to do well trying to go doortodoor to door and try to recover people's hardware wallets and hang people by their toe and tickle them until they give up their private key the return of violence is just way too low it's just impractical for them ever to try to achieve something like that uh to cast a vote that the government won't do it is very different to than to say that they can't do it so my argument is
• 82:00 - 82:30 simply anybody that's taken a lot of solace in that I would say don't if for whatever reason you're the one that they target and come after they will get your Bitcoin so there's a couple things about that so So number one they could say "Hey we'll kill you on site if if you don't turn it in." Yep so they they did make gold illegal right so not only do we take your gold if we catch you with gold it's illegal so they could certainly do that um I would say with that a couple of things like number one when the government makes things illegal they typically become bigger and more useful so like the war on drugs since
• 82:30 - 83:00 the 70s drugs are a bigger problem today now when the government tells you not to do drugs it doesn't make you want to do drugs but when they tell you you don't have a right to store your wealth in a way we can't steal and confiscate from you sort of makes you want to just like every time they talk about imposing new gun laws what happens with gun sales so number one you have human psychology and motivation number two with drugs drugs have to be they're physical items that have to be grown and cultivated and packaged and shipped and smuggled and distributed um whereas Bitcoin is completely the digital peer-to-peer and can't be traced or tracked so how do
• 83:00 - 83:30 they stop that they can't even keep drugs out of a prison so I think it's just impractical i think techn what happens is technology moves faster than the state so you have 3D gun schematics well they can make those illegal well now they're on the Bitcoin blockchain and they're censorship resistant for all of humanity h how how does the government do that so when they try to I think what happens when the government tries to move on technologies that are moving and advancing faster than they are it makes the state look irrelevant and
• 83:30 - 84:00 incompetent but you've interviewed a lot of people with Bitcoin my good friend Robert Breedlove i know you've had Sailor on uh a couple times as well and he calls Bitcoin digital energy he has some really good metaphors i mean he's an amazing mind i love the part where he told you uh you said "But what about all the other cryptocurrency?" He says "How many chairs do you have you're just sitting in one chair right?" Yes the uh the meme yeah um but when you think about it like that as digital
• 84:00 - 84:30 energy and then you think about like storing that energy for a long period of time especially in today's day and age we're going into this AI age there was this sort of deepseek moment that was uh April 27th was it where all of a sudden deepseek was dropped into the world and it sort of caused Nvidia to crash and it sort of made the whole world kind of step back and go are we pricing assets properly because couldn't a bunch the wealth leave the NASDAQ and go to China and if they need less Nvidia chips do we
• 84:30 - 85:00 have Nvidia priced right and it sort of made everybody sort of look at everything differently and I'm curious through your talks and Bitcoin with Sailor and others do you think it eventually reprices assets like investment assets as we know them it's a good question on a long enough timeline I honestly don't know that isn't the way that I think about Bitcoin to me I take a very simple approach which is that you've got inflation inflation is the problem of the modern era like the problem the number of things that I
• 85:00 - 85:30 think emanate from the fact that governments deficit spend and then print to not have to engage the voting public with their choices uh is deeply problematic so to me Bitcoin solves that incredible problem and it solves it in a moment where as it's being um effectively repriced by the wild inflation of the dollar combined with the growing awareness and demand for
• 85:30 - 86:00 Bitcoin you get this incredible runup for people that are able to withstand the temporary volatility so I look at it in that perspective i ultimately want Bitcoin to become an incredibly boring asset i want it to be a place where I can put my money and I know that the amount of output I got from a unit of my time in the past holds that value uh because then and this is a big part of my thesis right now the reason that the average American doesn't invest in the
• 86:00 - 86:30 stock market and if they do they certainly don't invest very much is because they don't understand it it's just complicated enough that they're never going to understand it and so I think a government has a moral obligation to give their citizens an opportunity to just save their money in a way where it's not going to go down in value once you do that I think a lot of problems go away now people that are fiscally responsible they're going to save their money it's not going to be eaten by inflation there's going to be a benefit for them to do that um so that's
• 86:30 - 87:00 the thesis the lens through which I look at Bitcoin now whether it ends up gobbling up more and more of these assets I don't see how it couldn't for somebody like me who might otherwise consider rolling the dice on a piece of art I would much rather be in certainly my future vision of Bitcoin where it becomes far less risky so people that are trying to build wealth right now we're going to go for Bitcoin but hopefully one day that's like a way more stable play uh and so that's not where they're focused on and that way we
• 87:00 - 87:30 really begin to have assets that are low risk and we have assets that are higher risk and the people that want to accept the consequences of getting that wrong uh they can go do it i think people should be able to spend their money however they want um but I have not put a lot of thought into like how much do I think that this just keeps gobbling up the world because I didn't buy it because I thought oh my god this is going to go up an insane amount in value i bought it because I thought tomorrow will be more digital than today and that you you have to have an escape from
• 87:30 - 88:00 inflation you have to yeah you've interviewed over 600 high performers congratulations on that number by the way generated over a billion views and you've pulled yourself from scrging on couch cushions to building a billion dollar business or exiting a billion dollar business um you showed on Twitter or on X your top 10 favorite interviews of all time and so they weren't ranked in any particular order but I noticed that like five of those people were money guys um and two of those were like future tech
• 88:00 - 88:30 guys so I was going to ask you if you had to distill everything you've learned into a single mind-blowing insight that my audience might be left thinking about for a few days what would that be nothing matters other than thinking from first principles that is the most formulate your own devastating Yes it first principles is a little deeper than that first principles is the world works on a set of rules we'll call them the laws of physics and everything
• 88:30 - 89:00 stacks on that uh yes they they are the axioms that we cannot disprove right and once you understand that life is a big chain of cause and effect that we can't go all the way back because we don't under fully understand physics but man you can you can really think like an engineer which is the right way even if you're playing a game of psychology the human mind works in a certain way it's complex a lot of variables but it works
• 89:00 - 89:30 in a knowable way and so if you focus obsessively on mapping that well then you can get as close to having a crystal ball as you're ever going to get and it's almost the the guests that I have really fall into two gigantic camps there are people that are just worried about the laws of physics in their own mind like here are the things that I'm up against david Gogggins I figured out how to master my
• 89:30 - 90:00 own mind cool you've got the physics of your mind and given that you've been able to lead an extraordinary life because you understood how to deal with your own limitations your cognitive biases all of that then there are people that do a external thing where they master money they master business it's the same game you're trying to figure out how does this thing actually work how do I get my emotions out of the way and how do I think from first principles and I have a feeling no matter how many people I interview they're going to use
• 90:00 - 90:30 different words but they're all going to be people who did that thing either on a really granular subject so take um Annie Jacobs I believe is her name and she's walking you through the first principles of nuclear war and what it looks like and like why we have to avoid it and all that stuff again just cause and effect uh Eric Weinstein is literally walking you through the laws of physics uh Michael Sailor how Bitcoin is financial energy and he's walk literally using the
• 90:30 - 91:00 language of physics ray Dallio saying I figured out how this game worked and so I can point you 500 years backwards to explain it and I can tell you given these cycles what it's going to look like moving forward it's like all of the really just incredible banger guests are people that I'm like "Oh you know where you're trying to end up and you're just thinking from first principles with an understanding that you can master a set of skills that allow you to do something in your own mind or in the real world that works better than the next person." Yeah and everyone should figure that out for themselves i mean it's really
• 91:00 - 91:30 universal but you have to figure out how to get out of your own way with your own cognitive limitations biases distorted frame of reference so it will be an N of one experiment but you you're seeking the truly universal got it all right i think this might be my longest interview ever so my apologies only because I kept taking it it was really good it was really good so we'll end it with that Tom awesome uh
• 91:30 - 92:00 obviously we'll link to your stuff down below i'm sure everybody already knows where to find you i hope so tombill wherever uh you go all right thanks thank you