Ethiopia and Somaliland Forces Clash in Las Anod: A New Flashpoint in the Horn of Africa

The conflict in Las Anod marks a significant chapter in the complex geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa. Located in the disputed Sool region of Somalia, Las Anod has long been a focal point of contention between Somaliland and various local entities. The area's strategic importance is underscored by its role as a battleground for influence among local and regional powers. Historically, tensions have simmered since Somaliland's declaration of independence in 1991, setting the stage for repeated flare‑ups of violence and the involvement of external actors, such as Ethiopia, which reportedly supports local militias opposing Somaliland's claims (source).

The recent clashes, as reported by BBC Somali, highlight the volatile nature of the Las Anod conflict. In early 2024, eyewitnesses depicted fierce skirmishes between the Somaliland army and Ethiopian forces—a development that signifies the deepening complexity of this territorial dispute. These engagements are not isolated incidents but part of a broader struggle involving clan dynamics, national ambitions, and international interests that have kept this region on edge. The presence of Ethiopian troops in Las Anod is particularly noteworthy, suggesting a tactical alliance with local anti‑Somaliland militias, reflecting broader strategic objectives in the region.

At the heart of the Las Anod conflict is the long‑standing aspiration for autonomy by the Dhulbahante clan, which primarily inhabits the Sool region. This clan, central to the region's demographics, has persistently resisted Somaliland's administrative control, seeking either union with Somalia's Puntland state or complete independence. The Dhulbahante's grievances are rooted in historical grievances dating back to colonial times when borders were drawn without local consultation. Efforts to assert their autonomy have repeatedly brought them into direct confrontation with Somaliland forces, as seen in the escalation of hostilities since 2023.

The reported involvement of Ethiopian forces adds a complex layer to the conflict, intertwining it with Ethiopia's broader regional strategies. According to the BBC Somali article, Ethiopia's military presence is partly motivated by its desire to maintain regional stability and counterbalance the perceived expansionist intentions of Somaliland. This involvement, while officially denied by Somaliland, is perceived by local factions such as the SSC‑Khatumo as a form of "brotherly support," reflecting the multifaceted alliances and enmities that characterize the Horn of Africa's geopolitical dynamics.

As soon as the first shots were fired near Las Anod, the sounds of conflict shattered the uneasy peace. Local sources described chaotic scenes as families hastily packed belongings, abandoning homes in search of refuge away from the epicenter of confrontation. The events unfolded swiftly, with reports indicating a fierce engagement between Somaliland army units and Ethiopian forces, further entangling outsiders in a conflict that many believe is deeply rooted in regional tribal dynamics. While the immediate aftermath of the clash saw no formal announcements regarding casualties, the disruption was palpable, and the implications for both local populations and broader geopolitical stability were stark. The ensuing tension highlighted the intricacies of the Horn of Africa’s political landscape, affecting local communities profoundly as they navigated the uncertainties brought about by this latest flare‑up.

The situation in Las Anod, a city now deeply entangled in a complex web of historical grievances and geopolitical interests, stems from decades‑long territorial disputes. Initially part of the British Somaliland Protectorate, Las Anod transitioned into a point of contestation following Somaliland's unilateral declaration of independence in 1991. This declaration left regions like Las Anod, which are demographically dominated by clans, such as the Dhulbahante, feeling marginalized. Despite being under the jurisdiction of Somaliland, the desire for reunion with Somalia has been persistent, particularly since the eruption of open conflict in 2022 between local clans and Somaliland authorities. The tensions escalated dramatically by mid‑2023, when the SSC‑Khatumo forces seized control of the city, pushing out Somaliland's forces and setting the stage for ongoing conflict, as noted in a reported military clash in early 2024.

Historical animosities are compounded by the political significance of the Sool region, of which Las Anod is a central hub. The geopolitical location of this region makes it a strategic point of control for any administration wishing to leverage influence over the wider Horn of Africa, a region known for its intricate and often volatile diplomatic relations. The implication of these historical tensions was underscored in the wake of the Ethiopian involvement in the conflict, as Ethiopia, owing to its strategic interests, began siding with local militias aligned against Somaliland. As covered by reports, this maneuver is not only about immediate military alignment but also taps into deeper regional dynamics — potentially offering Ethiopia a significant leverage point over sea access through Somaliland territories.

The involvement of Ethiopian forces in the Las Anod conflict is a significant development impacting the regional dynamics in the Horn of Africa. According to a BBC Somali report, Ethiopian troops reportedly engaged in clashes with Somaliland forces in the strategic city of Las Anod. This has escalated the long‑standing territorial dispute in Somalia's Sool region, which had already been a flashpoint of tensions due to the historical and clan‑based complexities of the area. The Ethiopian military's involvement appears to be aligned with local militias opposed to Somaliland's authority, suggesting Ethiopia's interest in extending its influence across the region.

The Ethiopian presence in Las Anod ties into the broader regional interests that Ethiopia holds, particularly concerning the Ethiopia‑Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in early 2024, which grants Ethiopia sea access via Somaliland's Berbera port. This agreement appears to be a strategic move by Ethiopia to bolster its economic and geopolitical stance after the impact of its internal conflicts, such as the Tigray War. The MoU has caused significant friction with the Somali federal government, which contests Somaliland's claims to independence and views the deal as undermining Somalia's territorial integrity. As Ethiopia navigates these complex regional affiliations, its military interventions in Las Anod can be seen as a pursuit of strategic leverage over the seas and surrounding territories.

The recent tensions between Somaliland and SSC‑Khatumo have drawn varied reactions from the different stakeholders involved. According to a report by BBC Somali, Somaliland officials have adamantly rejected claims of Ethiopian military involvement in the conflict, dismissing them as mere propaganda. This stance seems to be an attempt to maintain a narrative that the region is not under external siege, preserving their claims over Las Anod.

On the other hand, SSC‑Khatumo has openly welcomed the presence of Ethiopian forces, considering it as a form of brotherly support. The administration views this as a strategic partnership that bolsters their push against Somaliland's claims over the Sool region. By aligning with Ethiopia, SSC‑Khatumo hopes to leverage regional geopolitics to their advantage against what they perceive as Somaliland’s unwarranted occupation.

Public reaction within Somaliland has been largely critical of both Ethiopia's involvement and the MoU deal concerning Berbera port. These agreements have been perceived as acts of betrayal by certain figures within Somaliland's political circles. Rallying to pressure their own government, they argue that such foreign entanglements threaten the region's sovereignty and could potentially destabilize the region even further.

Furthermore, the silence from both Somalia's federal government and Ethiopia regarding official statements adds a layer of complexity to the situation. While this reticence may be tactical, it also leaves room for speculation and misinformation, fuelling tensions and mistrust among the involved factions and regional observers.

The broader implications of these reactions are significant, as they may set the stage for escalating conflict not just within the Horn of Africa, but potentially drawing in larger international interests. As the complexities of the Las Anod dispute unfold, these reactions underscore the fragility of peace in regions where historical, clan‑based territorial claims remain unresolved.

The Horn of Africa's stability heavily depends on the economic and political coherence of its constituent states, yet the political turmoil in areas like Las Anod could threaten these efforts. As Somalia struggles to articulate a cohesive national identity amid commendable yet incomplete reconciliation processes with its autonomous regions, the Ethiopian‑Somaliland altercation over Las Anod represents a microcosm of broader regional disputes over territory and governance. Furthermore, widespread instability in this area could have economic repercussions that stretch beyond national borders, affecting trade routes critical to landlocked nations like Ethiopia. The disruption of strategic locations such as the Berbera port not only impacts local economies but also the geo‑economic strategies of countries seeking to leverage these infrastructural assets for regional dominance.

The international community has closely observed the unfolding situation in Las Anod, where reported clashes between Ethiopian forces and Somaliland troops have sparked a multitude of reactions. The involvement of Ethiopia, particularly due to its broader regional interests such as the 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland regarding sea access, has caused significant concern. Some regional analysts and international forums have even discussed the possibility of a proxy war, suggesting that tensions could escalate further if diplomatic interventions do not succeed.

Public reaction to the conflict has varied widely, with strong sentiments expressed on social media and in political discourse. Support for SSC‑Khatumo and opposition to Somaliland's actions are prominent, especially among Somali nationalist voices and local clans who view the conflict as a push against perceived aggression. On platforms like Twitter, hashtags such as #LasAnodGenocide have trended, reflecting the intensity of feelings against Somaliland's military actions. Conversely, Somaliland loyalists have decried what they perceive as foreign meddling, expressing concerns over external influences undermining their sovereignty and territorial claims.

The Ethiopian military's role in Las Anod has also drawn varied interpretations. While some factions view their presence as a protective measure or "brotherly support," others see it as an overreach that exacerbates regional geopolitical tensions. The Ethiopian involvement highlights the complex regional alliances and Ethiopia's strategic interests in the Horn of Africa, particularly concerning economic and security objectives. This involvement has not only drawn criticism from Somali authorities but has also opened a new chapter in the already intricate dynamics among Horn of Africa nations, potentially jeopardizing stability if perceived manipulations continue.

In the broader international context, the conflict has sparked dialogue on platforms like War on the Rocks and other geopolitical magazines, where experts weigh in on the potential for regional destabilization. The Horn of Africa's strategic significance means that these clashes are seen not just as a local issue but as part of wider regional narratives involving key players like Eritrea and Gulf States, who have vested interests in the area. The international reactions reinforce the necessity for diplomatic engagement and peaceful resolutions to prevent an escalation that could involve various regional actors and impact global interests.

As tensions linger, humanitarian organizations have raised alarms over the plight of civilians in Las Anod and surrounding areas. Reports of displacement and human rights violations from artillery exchanges have drawn condemnation from groups like Human Rights Watch, urging for immediate attention to mitigate the humanitarian crisis. The diverse and passionate global reactions to the events in Las Anod underscore the need for a balanced approach that ensures peace and protects human rights, while also respecting regional sovereignty and stability.

The ongoing conflict in Las Anod and the Ethiopia‑Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) highlight the intricate political landscape in the Horn of Africa. The clashes in the region are contributing to increased fragmentation within Somalia, potentially disrupting efforts for national reunification. This fragmentation empowers subnational players like SSC‑Khatumo, which, with the backing of Somalia's federal government, has asserted control over Las Anod against Somaliland's claims. Meanwhile, Somaliland faces internal crises, exacerbated by the postponement of elections and the loss of eastern territories. These issues undermine President Muse Bihi Abdi's authority, possibly leading to power struggles or shifts in clan loyalties by the time elections come around, should they be held amidst the current unrest. Ethiopia's military presence in Las Anod, a strategic move to support SSC‑Khatumo, also heightens proxy tensions with Somalia, which could escalate into broader regional conflicts involving other nations such as Eritrea, Djibouti, and Egypt, all of which have vested interests aligned with Somalia. The stalemate over the MoU's implementation seems likely to continue due to challenges in Ethiopian courts, pressures from the African Union, and mediation failures through IGAD, forecasts indicate this diplomatic stalemate might prevail through 2027.

Economically, the Ethiopia‑Somaliland MoU's disruption to trade routes like the Berbera port could significantly impact regional stability. Without access to the promised 20km of coastal land, Ethiopia faces intensified logistical constraints as a landlocked nation, risking increased import costs and hindering economic recovery following the Tigray conflict, potentially dragging down GDP by 5‑10% if plans for a naval base collapse. Somaliland's loss of its eastern territories could lead to decreased revenue from livestock exports, which constitute a major part of its GDP, due to clan‑imposed embargoes and population displacements that block access to markets. The UN OCHA has reported that over 43,000 individuals have been displaced in recent clashes, exacerbating famine risks in the region. Further, the potential for regional spillover threatens key IGAD trade corridors. Militant groups such as Al‑Shabaab might exploit these conditions to increase recruitment and execute attacks on infrastructure, possibly disrupting humanitarian aid flows by as much as 20‑30%, according to ACLED trends. Despite these challenges, some investment, particularly from the UAE in Berbera, is expected to persist, though overall foreign direct investment in Somaliland might see a decline of 15% by 2027 if stability is not achieved.

Socially, the human toll of ongoing conflicts in Las Anod is stark, with reports suggesting displacements of 150,000‑200,000 people, predominantly from the Dhulbahante clan. These displacements are predominantly towards Ethiopia's Somali region, thereby straining local resources and fueling grievances that could radicalize disenfranchised youth, potentially toward groups like Al‑Shabaab. The indiscriminate shelling in Las Anod has severely damaged essential infrastructure such as hospitals and schools, contributing to over 200 civilian deaths according to UN data. The long‑lasting impact includes educational disruptions for about 50,000 children and health crises exacerbated by confrontations and famine warnings. Analysts from organizations like DIIS and the International Crisis Group warn that the socio‑political environment, amplified through social media, perpetuates cycles of polarity and distrust. On a positive note, Qatar‑mediated talks have contributed to a 40% reduction in violence since 2025, offering a pathway to de‑escalation if further amplified.

Expert analyses predict that without effective mediation, the risk of regional escalation remains high. Reports from organizations like the International Crisis Group and DIIS highlight the potential for "regional conflagration" by 2027 if the African Union does not successfully broker peace talks. Ethiopia, grappling with its own economic challenges, might pursue aggressive path extensions to assert regional authority, while Somalia continues to leverage SSC‑Khatumo against Somaliland. Data from ACLED and Human Rights Watch illustrates that conflict dynamics since 2023 have predominantly favored SSC‑Khatumo, hinting at the possibility of increased incursions by Al‑Shabaab into areas within Somaliland should the MoU be revitalized, potentially displacing an additional 50,000 individuals. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation necessitates urgent attention, as groups like the UN OCHA and Amnesty International cite potential peaks in humanitarian needs affecting upwards of 300,000 people by 2026, with calls for neutral mediation crucial to preventing a further spillover of proxy warfare.