2025 Charles Schwab Challenge DFS + Betting Preview : Key Stats, GPP Core, Value Plays + Top Bets

Summary

Highlights

• Gsluke shares his optimized DFS lineup strategies and betting predictions for the Charles Schwab Challenge. 🎯
• His key insights emphasize well-rounded play, not just powerful drives, making a difference at Colonial! 🤓
• Deep dive into players with strong short games as they can be the heroes of your lineup. 💪
• Highlighting the upsides of betting on potential underdogs with strong ball flight and putting skills. 🏌️
• Explains the shift from traditional outright bets to more strategic top placements for maximizing returns. 💵

Key Takeaways

• Embrace a well-rounded game strategy for Colonial Country Club; it's not all about driving distance! ⛳️
• Value plays can save your lineup and your budget—consider under-the-radar talents! 🤑
• Scotty Sheffler, despite high cost, remains a pivotal player for his win equity. Consider your roster wisely! 💼
• Look for players with strong around-the-green capabilities given the challenging greens. 🚩
• Don't undervalue the importance of high ball flights on firmer greens. 🎈

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction In the introduction, the host, GS Luke, welcomes golf enthusiasts to the show focused on DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) and betting for the upcoming Charles Schwab Challenge. The chapter outlines the approach and strategies Luke plans to discuss, including the modeling techniques, key stats, and comparisons used to identify top players. He also hints at sharing his fantasy exposure and the outright bets and placements he has made, all aimed at helping listeners understand how to effectively use key statistics for their betting strategies.
• 00:30 - 02:00: Key Stats and Fantasy Exposure In the chapter titled 'Key Stats and Fantasy Exposure,' the discussion centers around strategies for daily fantasy sports, particularly golf. Highlighted are core plays, value plays, and strategies for saving salary in fantasy lineups. The chapter begins with a review of what characteristics and stats are important when choosing players for lineups, particularly on specific golf courses. Additionally, there is a recap of the previous week's performance, specifically pointing out Scotty Shuffler as a successful pick during a Wednesday live stream on the Ship It Nation channel, despite not being part of the initial core plays. This success highlights the importance of adjusting strategies and selections based on evolving information and odds.
• 02:00 - 04:00: Colonial Country Club Overview In this chapter, the narrator discusses a betting strategy on a golf tournament at Colonial Country Club. They express confidence in a particular golfer who had a high chance of winning, thus deciding to place a significant bet. Despite a tense situation, the narrator also made a smaller hedge bet on John Rom after Saturday's round. Ultimately, they were satisfied with their overall betting strategy, even though the payouts differed between the golfers.
• 04:00 - 09:00: Course Analysis and Strategy In the chapter titled "Course Analysis and Strategy," the focus is on analyzing profits and strategies in golf events. The narrator talks about trying to achieve 'outright cashes' and how they are grinding for profit in top 5 and top 10 markets as well as DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports). Despite not having many outright wins, they have had a runner-up finish and aim for a first-place win. The chapter also mentions the renovation of Colonial Country Club and the observations made from the event following the renovation.
• 09:00 - 17:00: DFS and Betting Strategies The chapter titled 'DFS and Betting Strategies' discusses the characteristics and strategies needed to excel at a particular golf course. It is described as a well-rounded course where being a long-distance hitter (bomber) may help on certain holes, but it is not a necessity as past winners have shown. The course measures 7,300 yards and requires players to have strong skills around the green rather than just being good at straight shots (ball striking). After a renovation made the greens firmer, it became standard that even top players hit only 10 to 11 greens per round. Consequently, top-performing players were those capable of recovering and adapting to challenging situations (getting up and down).
• 17:00 - 23:00: Player Analysis: Scotty Shuffler The chapter titled 'Player Analysis: Scotty Shuffler' focuses on an analysis of Scotty Shuffler's performance and adaptability on the field. It discusses the importance of having a well-rounded skill set in the current tournament setup, emphasizing that there is no single category a player can specialize in to succeed due to the overall balanced difficulty of the course. The greens are noted to be firm and fast but lack significant undulation compared to other courses like Quail Hollow or Augusta, which affects the shots gained metrics. The analysis highlights the approach profile, particularly shots ranging from 125 to 175 yards, suggesting this is a critical range where there are more than eight shots per round, indicating its importance in strategy and performance.
• 23:00 - 27:00: Player Analysis: Harris English The chapter delves into the analysis of golfer Harris English, focusing on various aspects of his gameplay. It highlights the importance of proximity buckets in his performance, especially emphasizing the two main ones. The chapter suggests that even top-tier golfers, like Scotty Sheffler, miss several green shots, thus making around the green skills crucial. Additionally, it touches upon the relevance of Bermuda grass in the event, particularly in relation to the greens.
• 27:00 - 32:00: Patreon and Community The chapter discusses golf strategies, particularly focusing on apex heights of golf shots. It's emphasized that apex height, rather than driving distance alone, played a significant role in the success of players during a tournament on firm greens. The transcript suggests that players who hit the ball higher generally performed better, regardless of whether they are known for their long drives or not. Examples include players like Davis Riley, who is recognized both for hitting the ball a long distance and at a higher apex. The takeaway is that shorter distance players can still compete effectively if their apex height is comparable to those of longer hitters.
• 32:00 - 39:00: Player Analysis: Andrew Novak The chapter discusses player analysis focusing on Andrew Novak, emphasizing the importance of scrambling skills at certain golf courses after renovations. It draws comparisons with other players like Amorawa and Straa who excel in similar skills, particularly in iron launching and performing well at renovated courses. Additionally, the chapter highlights the significance of putting stats and uses comp courses like Harbortown Golf Links to further analyze player performance on shorter, positional tracks.
• 39:00 - 43:00: Player Analysis: Mackenzie Hughes The chapter provides an analysis of the golf player Mackenzie Hughes, focusing on the challenges posed by certain courses like the Sea Island's RSM Classic, which includes Seaside and Plantation courses, and the TPC Southwinds. These courses are characterized by their small greens and require a refined short game due to tricky shots around the greens. The chapter emphasizes the need for a well-rounded skill set where both long hitters and shorter players off the tee must excel with their mid to long irons and short game to succeed.
• 43:00 - 49:00: Player Analysis: Eric Cole and Ricky Castillo This chapter discusses player analysis with a focus on Eric Cole and Ricky Castillo. It starts by highlighting how different players can find success at the Colonial, which adds variety to fantasy sports and outright bets. The discussion then transitions into selecting key players for exposure in fantasy and betting scenarios. Scotty Shepler is identified as a core play despite his high cost, mainly due to his anticipated popularity and superior skill set, making him a prime choice for the slate.
• 49:00 - 55:00: Conclusion and Giveaway The chapter focuses on discussing strategies related to player lineups and ownership percentages in sports betting, specifically around Scotty Shuffler. Key points include evaluating Shuffler's win equity and ownership projections to determine lineup decisions. The chapter ends with considerations on how to gain leverage by adjusting player ownership based on expected percentages. This section doesn't provide a straightforward conclusion or a giveaway as suggested by the title, but instead offers strategic insights for managing lineups in the context of sports betting.

2025 Charles Schwab Challenge DFS + Betting Preview : Key Stats, GPP Core, Value Plays + Top Bets Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 [Music] Welcome on in golf fans. It's your boy GS Luke here with our DFS embedding premium for this week's Charles Schwab challenge. Going to get you ready for all of your exposure. And first off, a look at my modeling for this week, the kind of key stats and comps that I'm using to identify my top plays. And then afterwards, we're going to focus on my fantasy exposure as well as some outright bets and placements that I've already placed to this point to give you guys an idea of how I'm using those key stats. and a few plays that I'm getting
• 00:30 - 01:00 well over the field on. Those will include our DFS core plays, value plays towards the bottom as well to help you save some salary and like I said, a few players that have already added to the card. So, without further ado, let's go ahead and hop on in. But first off, a look at the golf course and what I'm looking for in my plays. Before we hop on in, just want to recap what ended up being a really good week last week out there with the Scotty Shuffler outright in. While he wasn't a part of our initial core plays, by the time we got to the Wednesday live stream, if you guys saw that on the Ship It Nation channel, he was our main outright bet up top. And it was partially because the outright numbers on the other guys
• 01:00 - 01:30 weren't all that good. But plus 400 on a guy that I thought was going to win the event like 33% of the time was just something that I couldn't pass up. So, put some big boy units on that. If I'm going to bet somebody at that sort of number, it's not going to be for like $50 to $100. So, sweating buckets. Even had a John Rom hedge at some point. I added that just after the round on Saturday. uh just gave us a pretty good sweat down the stretch there. So, kind of wished it was closer between those two. It was a slightly better payout for uh Scotty Shuffler to win. So, I'm okay with it going that direction, but with
• 01:30 - 02:00 all those outright cashes this year to try and make it number six here for this event. And even if it isn't an outright cash, you'll see here with this video, not a lot of outrights that were actually playing. is try and grind out some profit for those top five, top 10 markets, as well as over there from the DFS perspective, which you know, the outrights have been hot, but also we had that runner-up finish a few weeks ago, it'd be nice to try and crack first place this time around. So, without further ado, let's go ahead and hop on in. Colonial Country Club underwent a renovation before last year's event, and now that we've seen an entire event since that happened, we have a pretty
• 02:00 - 02:30 good idea of exactly what to expect. And this is a very well-rounded golf course. Being a bomber helps you on a few holes, but you definitely don't have to be a bomber with some of the winners that we've seen. and only a 7,300 yard golf course. You have to be a really good round the green player, not somebody that's just a ball striking specialist. Because with the firm nature of these greens after the renovation, players were only hitting like 10 to 11 greens per round. So even your best players still had to get up and down quite a bit, which meant that the players that found themselves in the top five, top 10 were some of the best players in the
• 02:30 - 03:00 field because they were a well-rounded skill set sort of player. So this week, you can't really fake it out there in any one category. The greens are the one part of the course that maybe isn't as difficult as some others. They are firm and fast, but they don't have a ton of undulation on them like you had at Quill Hollowo or Augusta. So, the a lot of the shots gain metrics skew in that direction. So, first off, the approach profile, you're going to see a lot more shots from 125 to 175. If you saw my course breakdown, you guys would know that that range, you have over eight shots per round in the 125 to 175. So,
• 03:00 - 03:30 by the way, I'll leave a link to the course breakdown in the description of this video. But that's why we're adding a lot of extra emphasis in these two proximity buckets. Outside of that, it's pretty flat with the other proximity buckets. Around the green is important because you're going to be missing so many greens. Even elite tier ball strikers like Scotty Sheffller missed quite a few more at this event than he missed at other events on tour. So, you can look at around the green form. Also, Bermudar Grass around the green stats as everything but the greens is going to be Bermuda this week. Off the tea comes
• 03:30 - 04:00 down to distance and I'm looking at some apex height stuff. What I'll say about the apex height is that it's not so much the off the tea that we're worried about there. It's using the apex height of drivers so that we know how high players hit the ball in general. Because with these firm greens, something that I noticed with the leaderboard last year is that your apex height players found themselves towards the top. And it wasn't even just your bombers. Like a Davis Riley hits the ball a long way and he hits the ball high, but even some of your shorter guys that in general just hit the ball higher than some of the other guys that hit the ball the same
• 04:00 - 04:30 distance found themselves in that top five, top 10. Like Amorawa, for example, can launch some of those irons except Straa is capable of doing the same thing. And both of those guys were top finishers after the renovation. I'm looking at some putting stats. It is towards the bottom end of the modeling though, adding some extra emphasis to that scrambling. And if you couldn't tell, it is a much bigger deal at this golf course and really any other ones that we talk about here on tour. And with our comp courses, I've got Harbortown Golf Links, another shorter positional kind of track where you're
• 04:30 - 05:00 going to miss a lot of greens. Some tiny green complexes around there. Both courses for the Sea Islands, that would be the RSM Classic. Uh you got Seaside and the Plantation courses that have a very small greens and some tricky around the green shots. And then TPC Southwinds, another shorter par 70 where you also are going to have a lot of tricky around the green shots. So, we're looking for a well-rounded skill set. If you're a bomber, you still have to have a stout short game. If you're a shorter player off the tea, then you better be able to hit those mid to long irons
• 05:00 - 05:30 well. It's just uh a lot of different players can find success around Colonial, which I think makes for a very interesting slate with DFS and Outright. So, with that being said, now that we have an idea of exactly what to look for in our plays, let's shift our focus to some of our pieces of exposure, both from the fantasy and the betting side of things. Our first core play is going to be a no-brainer. And frankly, if you're not playing Scotty Shepler this week, there's only one reason for that, and that would be because he's going to be extremely popular. But he's by far the best player on the slate. He is a little bit more expensive than we'd like at
• 05:30 - 06:00 about $13,700, but his win equity is over 30% at least if you believe what the sports books are putting out there. So, the sort of player that I'm not going to be avoiding in lineups. Really, the question for me is how much Scotty Shuffler I'm going to play. I'm going to project his ownership at close to 30% right now. If he's at that 30% mark, then I might just play 50% and get some leverage to the field. If he comes in closer to 40 50%, which I think would be an outlier towards the high number there um with his ownership, then maybe you could consider taking an ownership fade
• 06:00 - 06:30 against him. but he's the sort of guy that you kind of plug and play into lineups, especially if you're 150 maxer like me, and then get different with your other four or five other spots. Uh the reason for that, of course, is that when you're entering a large set of lineups like 150, uh it's really tough to want to make a pivot against a player that strong. Uh his projected fantasy points is close to 100, whereas even guys like a Tommy Fleetwood, Daniel Burgerer that are projecting solidly themselves are a whole 20 fantasy points lower with their projections. and they made cut rate is over a 95% rate there.
• 06:30 - 07:00 I guess you could argue that he's due for a letown after having that major championship performance, but last year when he went on a similar type of run, he didn't have very many letdowns during that kind of stretch. In fact, he won multiple times in a row at events that are much more difficult than what you have with the Charles Schwab challenge. So, the sort of player that I'm expecting to be in that top three, top five. The question is, is a top two, top three finish without a win going to be enough to pay off that price tag? Because if so, he's going to be in over
• 07:00 - 07:30 50% of my lineup. So, the kind of player that I'm going to have to think through as the week goes on, but I know for a fact that he's going to be in a solid amount of my lineups. Again, the question is is just how many he's going to sneak into. If you take a look at the event history, it's also been next to the best in this field. And the reason why I mentioned like that second third place finish is that's what's happened for him the last few years. He had a T2 last year, T3 before that, also a second place finish in 2022 and he wasn't nearly as expensive as he is now. So he was optimal in all three cases. But now
• 07:30 - 08:00 that he's nearly $14,000, I just wonder whether he needs to actually win to pay that off. So, um, the kind of thing that I'm going to be exploring with some Sims throughout the week, talking to some bright people throughout the industry, uh, picking their brains of what they think about that topic. Um, from the outright perspective, I'm not really going to bet somebody at less than 3:1 to do so. Uh, placement, that's even worse. Like, his top five is minus money at this stage. So, I'm going to steer clear of that. just use him in the fantasy format, which is I think maybe the best place to
• 08:00 - 08:30 do so because if he is only like 30% owned, and I think that's a pretty reasonable ownership projection on a player that's nearly 14 grand, I would argue that's not high enough compared to I mean, he's got over a 50% top five rate, let alone the chances that he makes it a top three or a win. It just makes him somebody that I think it'd be foolish to go out there and fade in. I say the only reason that you'd go out there and make that kind of stand would be that ownership if you're making that sort of fade. I respect making that kind of decision, but I will say that you've got a lot bigger balls than I do. So,
• 08:30 - 09:00 I'll be using them in quite a few lineups. The question is how many and uh it impacts the rest of my card because if I think a Scotty Shuffler is tailor made for this course, it's a course where you have to be wellrounded and we know Scotty Shuffler of course gains across all four categories. In fact, if you go to the last 12 measured rounds, he's gaining very significantly in every category but around the green. Over.75 strokes per round in every category but around the green. And at a golf course like this where you have to have every shot when it comes to the short game stuff. Um Scotty Shuffler's got that. I
• 09:00 - 09:30 mean, he's got one of the better well-rounded short games that we have on the PGA Tour. And it kind of surprises me that he's been about a tour average player over that stretch. So, uh, really no any no holes in this game other than the fact that he might have that let down after the major. Next up though is our first placement bet of the weekend. The reason why Scotty impacts that is because I think he has so much win equity and I'm scared to bet any outright. So, I'm waiting for Hard Rock to post a board without Scotty Shuffler. So, if we can go out there get decent numbers on these guys taking him out of
• 09:30 - 10:00 things and I might go out there and add some exposure there. But for now, I'm taking the top five on Harris English, who in my opinion is the best course fit that we have this week. He's not an overly long player, also not an overly accurate player, but he's decent in both categories. He's just an above average driver of the golf ball when it comes to all facets. But what I really like about Harris English is that he's good at putting on bent grass greens. You can see over here, gains about a half a stroke per round on the cate in the category. For the year, he gains 1.2 strokes per round on bent grass. So, he's been even better in 2025, but he's
• 10:00 - 10:30 a high ball hitter as well. He hits the drives high, hits his irons high into the greens. And for evidence of that, take a look at his performance at Quail Hollow. He finished in second. That was widely publicized with how low he went on Sunday. But the entire weekend, this was to my detriment actually at that event. I bet against him when it came to greens regulation. And it came to found that he hits the ball so damn high that he was one of the only players last week that hit a bunch of greens. And by a bunch of greens, I mean like 13 plus per
• 10:30 - 11:00 round. And the average around Quill Hollow was like 9 and a half to 10 greens per round. So at a certain stage, you know, I got humbled with my analysis. I was like, "Oh, Her English can't be that good of an iron player. He's average to maybe above average most times on tour." I learned my lesson. When you give this guy firm greens, for whatever reason, his ball flight is perfectly set up for it. And if we're going to get firm greens this week, bent grass greens. Also, he's in one of the best ball striking stretches of his entire career. You can see gaining close to a half a stroke per round, both off
• 11:00 - 11:30 the tea, actually a little bit over a half a stroke per round when it comes to his approach play. Um, this is, like I said, the perfect kind of stat fit for this course. So, I'm hoping that he's not going to be overly chalky from the placement perspective. We don't have to worry about how popular a player is. And at plus 825 for the top five, I thought that was more than a fair enough number there. Uh, that was boosted from, I believe 750, 10% to the 825 number. And uh if he can finish top five, that's probably going to pay off in DFS as well. So if he's below that 15 to 20%
• 11:30 - 12:00 number when it comes to ownership, I'm going to be more than willing to get over the field on Harry English and the sort of player that I'm adding to the outright card as well. So uh we'll see if we can get that market without Scotty Shuffler because in that sort of market, I'd probably take something close to 25 30 to1 on a Harris English, which um is something that I'll be looking for for sure. Next up, to remind you guys where you can find these spreadsheets for yourself, of course, where I'm getting all of my exposure when it comes to the outright bets, you can find that over there on my Patreon page. That would be down below in the description of this
• 12:00 - 12:30 video is where you can find the link to my Patreon on there for just $15 a month. That's what it takes to join the golf DFS tier. You get access to all my spreadsheets for the main slate for all these events, as well as showdown for rounds two through four. It has all my modeling projections, ownership as that becomes available, as well as my entire 150 max pool for all those sort of slates to give you guys a pros perspective on exactly where I'm putting all my money. And uh I'm not the person that'll tout plays without playing it. You guys have seen me on the streets before, right? You see my bets there
• 12:30 - 13:00 with Scotty Shepler. You guys have seen me take down GBPs before. I'm not the sort of tout that just gives projections, puts content out there, and then doesn't put any sort of money behind it myself. If anything, I'm the one losing the most money on these sort of slates if things don't go my way. But obviously, the last few months or so have been really favorable to us over here on the channel. Right. Last week with the Scotty Shuffler outright kind of speaks for itself. But JT also had a second place in the large field GBP a few weeks back. If you guys want to become a member of this community, try and grow and make your process even better as the time goes on, then make
• 13:00 - 13:30 sure to check out the link in the description because on there, not only am I giving you guys, and I'm very prideful about this, the most accurate projections in the industry, but also a lot of game theory and a lot of processed based stuff as well to make you guys better players long term. So you guys, if you that sounds like something up your alley, you guys want access to all the content that I'm doing for all these given kind of weeks, the Patreon place is the place to do it. And it's really simple why I have a Patreon page, right? I do this full-time. I put literally seven, eight hours a day into what I do here with my PJDFS stuff. A
• 13:30 - 14:00 lot of websites, a lot of people that do this don't treat it like an actual job. And, you know, to make sure I can do that sort of thing, right? I rely on you guys, the community, to help me make this my full-time job. So, by supporting my Patreon page, you guys give me the ability to go out there and do so. My exposure, my bets, all of that, I use that. It's a primary source of my income as well. But to be able to do this full-time and fully dedicate my life to what we do here with PJDFS, um that's why we have that sort of page. So, not only does it give you guys access to all
• 14:00 - 14:30 the extra content, but it helps me with what we're doing here with the channel and trying to further progress this community and learn as a bunch. So, check that out if you guys haven't already before moving on to these last few plays. Next up, we got Andrew Novak, who is going to be our last core play here at $8,200. And I bet him for a top 10 at plus $550. So, he's kind of fallen off a bit over the last few weeks, which is why I don't think he's going to be a very popular play. It's also why he's a little bit cheaper now than what he was for the last few events. And you can see
• 14:30 - 15:00 why with the recent form. I mean, he's had a few ugly missed cuts. Even when he's made cuts, it hasn't been as strong there with that T7. But remember, a second place finish at JT, a third place finish the week before that. That's what I remember about an Andrew Novak. And I'm not going to let a four round sample size of really ugly golf go ahead and keep me off of one of the best plays because if you remember our comp courses from before Harbortown in the RBC Heritage, the event that he finished runner up in in a playoff was our number one comp course. And if you take a look
• 15:00 - 15:30 at the last 24 measured rounds, last 12 measure rounds, not great for Novak because last week was that terrible for him in almost every category. But last 24 rounds, he's positive in all four categories. That includes that really ugly last 12 round sample size, which shows just how well he's played over that kind of a sample. His best category around the green, which is going to be br, you know, very crucial around this kind of golf course. Some brutal shots that you're going to have to hit when you miss the greens. And his ball striking, especially outside of this last week, was some of the best that we
• 15:30 - 16:00 had on tour, gaining a third, a half a stroke per round with the off the tea and approach play, respectively. And on this sort of grass, it's maybe not a specialist for him or anything like that, but he's been about to tour average, which compared to some of the other surfaces that he has on the PGA Tour, especially when he was newer to the Tour, was a really poor putter, um, is actually favorable compared to some of those other surfaces that you have. So, and Andrew Novak, the kind of player that I'm buying the dip on when it comes to that form because he really fits this style of golf well. He's a well-rounded player that gains across all four stat
• 16:00 - 16:30 categories. He's played well at the comp courses that I'm using for this kind of week. And that top 10 at plus 550 was also slight value compared to some of the other sports books. So the kind of player that I'll also be using in DFS was because because of that down performance at the PGA Championship, he's going to be lower owned than he otherwise would be because if he had played well there, he especially at this kind of price tag, he'd be 20 to 25% owned. But now people would probably rather go to a Davis Riley who had that second place and won this event last year. Not to say that I think Riley's a
• 16:30 - 17:00 bad play. He's he's really trending at the right time and at the right golf course. But don't sleep on players like an Andrew Novak that were posting second, third place finishes in signature events just a month ago. So that's where I'm buying the dip on players. An example of where you can play that game theory edge and uh take guys for a bounceback performance. And next we'll move on to our value plays. So a little bit cheaper down the board to help you guys save some salary. Now, Mackenzie Hughes maybe not the cheapest here at 7,900 bucks, but the last two plays we go through are going to save
• 17:00 - 17:30 you quite a bit more salary. But Mackenzie Hughes was a play I wanted to point out because I love him for the top 10 at plus 605. That was a boosted bet just like some of the other ones that we've gone through here and I'm always trying to find the best value. So, if I can find a good number to start with and boost that 10%, I'm going to take that all day. And Mackenzie Hughes is really trending with the ball striking stats. And just to show you what I'm talking about, if we go to the last 12 measure grounds, he's gaining in every category but the putter, which is blasphemous to say of a Mackenzie Hughes, he is one of the best putters, short game players
• 17:30 - 18:00 that we have in all the PGA Tour. So, the fact that he's been ball striking dependent over the last 12 measured rounds is surprising to say the least. And if we zoom out to the last 24 rounds, he's actually still into the negative with the putter. Now, it's not as negative as what it was before. So the last 12 rounds before that 12 was a little bit better for Mackenzie Hughes, but he's still gaining in all three to T Green categories. And the one thing about Mackenzie Hughes that I like at major championships and why he's played well at like US Opens for example, PGA championships that don't really suit his
• 18:00 - 18:30 style of golf is because he hits the ball high and he's a really good short game player. The short game, self-explanatory, in a week like this, there's going to be a lot of people missing greens. But because he can launch his irons in his drives higher than pretty much anyone else out there in tour, he's able to hold some of these green complexes. So kind of like a Harris English, he outperforms the rest of the field when golf courses have this kind of situation going on. And on bent grass, just like a Harris English, he gains a bunch of strokes putting. In fact, for his career, about 6 strokes per round on the bent grass surface,
• 18:30 - 19:00 which compared to that last 24 round sample size is 71 strokes better per round. and compared to his last 12 round saple size is a stroke better per round. So due for a lot of positive regression on a surface that has been very favorable for him on his career. And the reason why we say this, by the way, is that this is the baseline for players for their career on this type of grass is guys are comfortable when the greens look a certain way. And it's usually the type of greens that they're comfortable on are the ones that they grew up on when they were playing junior golf, learning how to read greens. McKenzie
• 19:00 - 19:30 Hughes, his best surface on the PGA Tour is vent grass. So that's probably the case for McKenzie coming from Canada. A lot of bent grass towards the northeast of the United States. Also up in Canada as well as you might imagine. So that's most likely why he finds so much success on this type of grass. And with the ball striking stats trending in the direction that they are. I think this is a perfect setup for him to go ahead and buy low, take him as a sneakier sort of play. And in GPPS, I don't think he's going to be popular as well. Not like a Novak who,
• 19:30 - 20:00 you know, in the AK range, this guy's going to be like 10 to probably 12% owned at the very least. Hugh is going to be sub 10% owned because Ryan Gerard is going to be very popular after his top 10 finish at the PGA Championship. A Harry Hall is going to be checking a lot of boxes for people, myself included, the kind of putting that he's had on bent grass. Ox Betia, people always love clicking his name into lineups. If Mackenzie Hughes gets squeezed by some of these more popular players around him, throw Thorbjorn Olison into that conversation as well. I think he's going to get clicked by quite a few casuals
• 20:00 - 20:30 out there. Not to say that it's a bad play. Like the forms there. I understand why people are playing some of these people, but Mackenzie Hughes has been playing just as well, if not better, with the Ta Green stats and with the analytics, like looking at some of the bent grass putting sets up even better than some of those other players. So, that's the direction that I'll be going in quite a few of my lineups. Then, we also got Eric Cole here at $7,300. So, he's a top 20 bet in another value play and I'm using a little bit further down the board at plus 357 and a half. And that one's really wonky because the
• 20:30 - 21:00 boost completely screwed that up, but that's the effective odds that it ended up playing. But Eric Cole has been playing really well on approach lately. And I play Eric Cole at courses where you don't have to be a bomber off the tea because that is his one clear weakness on the tour. He's both inaccurate and a little bit shorter than most when it comes to hitting the driver. But approach play and putting are always going to be elite for him. He's one of the best short game players that we have in all the tour. And over his last 12 measured rounds, he's getting just under a stroke per round with the irons, which is elite tier stuff. And it isn't even just that
• 21:00 - 21:30 sample size where he's played well. If you zoom out to the last 24 measured rounds, so double the sample size, he's still gaining on approach and he's still gaining with that putter. So, a very predictable sort of player. And at a shorter golf course like Colonial Country Club with some of the guys like Kizner that have had success around here, Eric Cole's that same sort of guy except he's much better at this stage of his career than what you have with a Kevin Kisner. Decent bent grass putting stats and it's like getting the old in prime Kevin Ker at this sort of golf course. Now Eric Cole hasn't won on tour
• 21:30 - 22:00 yet. That's I guess the one big difference compared to that sort of player. But I think it's just a matter of time before Eric Cole goes ahead and gets that done. So, I haven't bet him out right. I kind of want to see what the number looks like in the market without Scotty just because he scares me to death. That just absolute dreadnot at the top end of the board. But at $7,300, the sort of player that I'll be using a DFS lineups doesn't even have to win top five to get that done. A top 10, a top 15 with how many birdies Eric Cole posts. By the way, a player that
• 22:00 - 22:30 outscores his placement most times because he's a very aggressive player. Um, the kind of player also I don't expect to be mega chalky this week. Like you've got guys like Pearson Cudy, Matt Mccardi, Johnny Vegas after his top finish at the PGA Championship. Even if you go up a little bit like a Stevens, a Kevin U, a Bridgeman I think are going to get played more than Eric Cole. If he's closer to 5 to 7% ownership, I'm going to be thrilled to throw him into some of my lineups. And if I'm using a Scotty Shuffler up top, it's going to help out from the salary perspective as well. And then now finally, the last
• 22:30 - 23:00 play that we're going to go through here is by far my favorite of the week. And that of course accounting for the price that we're getting here. Gus Scotty is going to project better than Ricky Castillo. But at $6,900 in a top 20 at nearly plus 500, Castillo is my second ranked player of the week. He's number two in the total model ranking and quite literally is like a Harris English. Harris English was up there too. It's kind of like a toss up between these two. A perfect course fit around Colonial. He's a very good around the green player. In fact, if we take a look
• 23:00 - 23:30 at the last 24 or last 12 measured rounds, he's one of the best players in almost all these categories. He's gaining across all four categories over his last 24 rounds. And if we zoom in to the last 12 measured rounds, he's even better. And this is why he's popping so much. He's gaining 1.4 shots gained approach per round. Still gaining in every single category. And what you've heard from people about Castillo and um Jim Nance was very, very, very complimentary of his short game when he was in contention a few weeks ago. said he was one of the best short game
• 23:30 - 24:00 players that he's ever seen before. So, at a golf course where you're going to be missing a lot of greens, that is very favorable. He's had some of the best shots gained metrics period of anyone in this field lately, let alone of what you have in the 6K range. He gain strokes putting on bent grass and oh, the little kicker that goes ahead and makes it an even better play. He hits the ball high. And I guess I forgot to mention that with Eric Cole, he's a shorter player. like English. I don't want to say he's like a shorter player, but he's not a bomber off the tea. But these guys hit the ball much, much higher than the guys that hit the ball same distance of them.
• 24:00 - 24:30 Same thing as Castillo. Castillo does hit the ball quite a long way. But he's one of the top five apex height players that you have of anyone in this field. So at a golf course with the firm and fast grains, that is going to be advantageous for him along with all those other advanced analytics that were very favorable for his game. And at $6,900, it is going to save you a whole bunch of salary. If you're using nearly a $14,000 golfer in Scotty Shuffler, you're going to have to find a way to get different and save some salary at some stage. And uh this is the kind of
• 24:30 - 25:00 guy that I could see using in 25% of my lineups. Like he's I probably going to get some ownership just because the form is so good compared to everyone else around him. Now for the 6k range, chalk is normally closer to 7 to 10% rather than 20 to 30% chalk like you have towards the top end of the board. So that's why if I had to throw him in 25% of my laps to get leverage, let's say he's like 10% owned and when I get 2 and a halfx leverage, I'd be willing to do that on the guy because he's literally my number two ranked play out of everyone in the field. And that's compared to some of those 9 10k players.
• 25:00 - 25:30 Now I'm much more favorable on him than really anyone else in the industry is going to be because he's gaining like over half a stroke per round in all the really important things that I'm modeling for this week. So, he's going to be a big piece of exposure for me down towards the bottom end of the board. If he can top 20 and cash us out of that plus 500, that might even be enough to pay off his salary because down here at $6,900, let's assume that Scotty Shuffler wins and you have to be able to spend down and find some of these guys finishing in the top 20. That
• 25:30 - 26:00 would be that would be an even better scenario to want to play a Ricky Castillo because Vetty doesn't have to like top five to get into the optimal lineup because if you have to play Scotty Assumi wins and then you have to drop down here, you're not going to have to have as much of the nuts to get the job done. So, I kind of like that with Castillo. I like playing him with Scotty Shuffler in those specific kind of lineups um because of the flexibility it gives me with my salary. All righty, guys. That is all I've got for the DFS and betting preview. Go ahead, smash that like button if you guys haven't already and also comment down below who you've got winning this golf tournament for a chance to earn a free month of my
• 26:00 - 26:30 Patreon pageant. It could be anyone but Scotty Shuffler that you take. As long as you guys get the winner of this golf tournament, you guys will get a free month access to everything on my Patreon. So, that'll include all the DFS stuff for main slate and showdown and rounds two through four. Also, all the underdog and prize pick stuff that I'm posting on the prop side of things. All of that if you get that winner correct. So, go ahead, guess that winner down below. It'll be on a first come, first- serve basis. So, once a player is taken once by another commenter, they cannot be taken again. So, just a heads up over there. Best of luck with that giveaway.
• 26:30 - 27:00 All of your exposure that you guys are getting to, whe it's in the large field GPs, I hope to see a couple of your names towards the top up there with me. Also, from the outright angle, I hope you guys cash out on most, if not all the bets that you guys are placing. Let's make this a fun one. I know it's the week after a major, so maybe a little bit of a hangover for some people, but not over here. You guys know I'm a hardcore golf fan. every type of golf live tour, DP World Tour. You guys know I'm going to be watching it. And this is no other over here. So, I'm stoked for it. Should be a fun one. Uh hopefully can make it a good one for our
• 27:00 - 27:30 exposure and our profit as well. Best of luck. Check out my Patreon page if you guys want all the analysis that I'm doing for this kind of week. And of course, on Wednesday, we're going to have two live streams. Once again, at 700 p.m. Eastern time, that'll be on the Ship Nation YouTube channel. That's where we're going to be going over all the last second DFS and fantasy stuff. And then afterwards on my YouTube channel at 8:00 PM Eastern time is where we're going to go through all the prop and betting stuff. So it'll be the underdog and prize picks for round number one. Make sure to stop and by for those a little bit later on this week. Also some other content for rounds two
• 27:30 - 28:00 through four going to be the same kind of thing, right? Streams on ship it for the showdown streams. Also props for rounds two through four. Going to have live streams for that here on the channel as well. So you guys won't want to miss any of that. Subscribe so you guys get notified when all of those are going live. Best of luck and I'll see you guys a little bit later on. [Music]