A future imperfect: why globalisation went wrong | Adrian Wooldridge | TEDxLondonBusinessSchool

Summary

In this compelling TEDx talk, Adrian Wooldridge discusses the pitfalls of globalization, drawing comparisons to early-20th-century events. He highlights how globalization was initially seen as a force for integration and prosperity, yet its execution has led to economic stagnation, particularly in developed countries. Wooldridge argues that globalization has inadvertently fuelled nationalism, xenophobia, and economic inequality. To mitigate these challenges, he suggests a reformed approach to globalization, welcoming a balance between nationalism and global integration, and addressing issues of global cronyism and self-dealing.

Highlights

• Speaking on economic history, Adrian Wooldridge compares today's globalization with pre-World War scenarios. 📜🕰️
• Economic stagnation in the Western world contrasts starkly with prosperity in emerging markets. 💸🔄
• Hyper globalization has failed to deliver promised productivity growth, leading to public skepticism. 📉😕
• The elite's gains from globalization have outpaced the average citizen’s, fostering resentment. 💼📈
• Wooldridge suggests recognizing the good side of nationalism to counter its negative effects. 🌍🤔

Key Takeaways

• Globalization initially promised prosperity but has led to economic stagnation and inequality, especially in developed nations. 🌍📉
• The rise of nationalism and xenophobia is partly fueled by the failures and broken promises of globalism. 🌐🛑
• A reformed, more humble approach to globalization may help salvage its benefits while acknowledging nationalism's positive aspects. 🤝🌎
• Issues such as crony capitalism and tax evasion by global elites need to be addressed to prevent further public disillusionment. 💼🚫
• The failure to reform globalization could lead to a resurgence of protectionism and ethnic nationalism, creating a less stable world. 🔄🌐

Overview

Adrian Wooldridge delves into the complexities of globalization and its discontents in this insightful TEDx talk. He draws parallels between the pre-World War era and our current global situation, illustrating how past assumptions of endless integration have been met with unexpected nationalistic forces.

The speaker highlights the dichotomy of globalization's effects: while it has spurred economic optimism in emerging markets, it has simultaneously led to stagnation and disillusionment in developed nations. Wooldridge reveals how the promises of globalization - economic prosperity and cultural integration - have often failed to materialize, leading to a resurgence of protectionist sentiments.

In a thought-provoking conclusion, Wooldridge calls for a reformative approach to globalization, one that tempers its excesses and embraces a balanced view of nationalism. He warns of the dangers of unchecked global elitism and suggests that humbly addressing these issues could pave the way for a more harmonious global future.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:30: Introduction and Historical Perspective The chapter opens with reference to John Maynard Keynes's book, 'The Economic Consequences of the Peace,' which paints a picture of a typical middle-class Londoner prior to World War I. This sets the stage for a discussion on historical economic conditions and perspectives, introducing the reader to the socio-economic environment of that era.
• 01:30 - 04:00: The Rise and Fall of Globalization Ideals The chapter titled 'The Rise and Fall of Globalization Ideals' discusses the influence of globalization on individual confidence and business practices. It describes how a Londoner utilizes the telephone, a new technology at the time, to order goods from around the world and invest in multinational companies, fully expecting both the arrival of commodities and profitable ventures. This illustrates a period of certainty and optimism about the increasingly interconnected and cosmopolitan nature of the world. However, it hints at an underlying blindness to potential challenges or downfalls associated with globalization.
• 04:00 - 06:00: Economic Disparity and Stagnation The chapter discusses the impending transformation of the world due to rising nationalism, tribalism, and protectionism. It highlights the complacency of the global elite over the past two decades, comparing them to individuals comfortably observing the world from a distance while engaging in everyday activities like sipping tea and using technology. This behavior has led to a disconnection from the realities faced by the broader population. The elite's investments and reliance on technology symbolize their detachment and the underlying economic disparity that results in stagnation for those not within these privileged circles.
• 06:00 - 08:00: The Illusion of Controlled Globalization The chapter, 'The Illusion of Controlled Globalization', discusses the oversight of society to the growing influence of tribalism, nationalism, and xenophobia amidst an era where global commerce, exemplified by conveniences like next-day delivery from Amazon, seemed to dominate. It draws parallels to historical events, particularly focusing on how the First World War shifted global dynamics by dividing people into hostile factions. Post-war, these divisions contributed to profound economic crises that reshaped geopolitical landscapes.
• 08:00 - 10:00: The Clash of Ideologies The chapter explores the profound impact of protectionism following World War I, connecting it to the global depression. It examines how this economic downfall contributed to the rise of authoritarian leaders like Hitler and Stalin, eventually leading to World War II and the division of the world into ideological factions. Post-World War II, the narrative shifts to a period of reconstruction focusing on global integration, which persisted until the financial crisis of 2008. It emphasizes the world's ambition and progress towards interconnectedness during this time.
• 10:00 - 12:30: The Shallow Cultural Impact of Globalization The chapter discusses the concept of globalization, particularly focusing on its perceived shallow cultural impact. It begins by critiquing the idea of globalization as hubristic, suggesting that while it pushes the world closer together, it might not necessarily lead to deep cultural integration or understanding. The author points to the financial crisis as a pivotal moment marking the decline of globalization as a major ideological movement. Despite this, the chapter argues that globalization will persist in some form, primarily through continued cross-border trade by companies. However, as an ideological project fuelled by policymakers and certain ideologues aiming to reduce borders internationally, globalization appears to be waning.
• 12:30 - 15:00: Challenges and Humility in Reforming Globalization The chapter discusses the role of the United States in the era of globalization following the second world war. It highlights the vision of intellectuals who believed that globalization would lead to a more integrated, liberal, and peaceful world. However, it notes that these ideals are starting to dissolve. The chapter underscores the challenges faced in reforming globalization, particularly reflecting on the crucial part the United States has played in promoting free trade, NATO, and a global security architecture.

A future imperfect: why globalisation went wrong | Adrian Wooldridge | TEDxLondonBusinessSchool Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 [Music] in his wonderful book The Economic Consequences of the Peace John mayard K sums up an image of a middleclass civilized Londoner just before the first world war he's lying in bed reading his morning times sipping his tea and using
• 00:30 - 01:00 this new fangled device the telephone to order Commodities from all over the world he's absolutely certain that those Commodities will arrive on his doorstep in the next few days he's using this new fangle device to make investments in stocks and shares in companies that operate all around the world he's absolutely confident that he'll make money from those Investments and Kane says that this Londoner is certain that the world will go on becoming more Cosmopolitan more integrated more Global and and he's absolutely blind to the
• 01:00 - 01:30 forces of nationalism tribalism and protectionism that are about to transform that world the global Elite over the last 20 years has been rather like K's Londoner we've been lying in our Collective bed sipping our Collective tea reading our Collective Google Google and we've been making our investments we've been pressing our M smartphones we've been expecting our our Commodities to arrive
• 01:30 - 02:00 from Amazon on our doorstep the next day and we have collectively been absolutely blind to the forces of tribalism nationalism and xenophobia which are currently Transforming Our World now K's londoners world was transformed by the first world war the first world war divided the world into Waring murderous tribes after the first world war you got economic crisis economic crisis led to
• 02:00 - 02:30 protectionism protectionism led to depression after the war you got the rise of Hitler which led inexorably to the second world war youve got the rise of Stalin which led to the division of the world into Waring ideological camps now after the second world war we gradually began to reconstruct the world of global integration from 1945 to the financial crisis the world became more integrated you had a more ambitious more
• 02:30 - 03:00 hubristic notion of globalization constantly pushing the world together but I think what happened with the financial crisis was this period of globalization began to come to an end now I believe that globalization will continue in the sense that companies will continue to trade across borders wherever they can but globalization as an ideological project driven by policy makers who constantly want to lower borders cheered by IDE ideologues and
• 03:00 - 03:30 intellectuals who say that globalization will produce a more integrated more liberal more peaceful world that globalization is beginning to dissolve before our eyes the Great era of globalization depended on the United States being involved with the world after the second world war the United States took the lead in pushing for free trade in pushing for um nato in pushing for a global architecture of security but
• 03:30 - 04:00 after the first world war the United States did none of those things it retreated from the world and that's why you got the depression that's why you got protectionism that's why youve got the rise of these monsters across the world I think we're moving back to the attitude of the United States after the first world war rather than after the second world war secondly globalization depended on the the European Union advancing sucking in more members that process has reached its limits and it's beginning with brexit it's a reverse the
• 04:00 - 04:30 European Union is essentially now reached its limits essentially paralyzed what's gone wrong I think what's gone wrong essentially is that the globalizers over promised and underd delivered they promis that globalization would produce a world of obvious benefits for everybody a more prosperous a more stable a more pleasant World well they said that of course there'll be disruption of course there'll be difficulties of course people will have to change adjust to that world but
• 04:30 - 05:00 overwhelmingly you will see improvements in your life this clearly happened in the emerging world I was in Jing da not that long ago a city I'd hardly ever heard of everybody there seemed prosperous there were brand new cars there were skyscrapers people had jobs there was a great sense of optimism everybody was looking forward to the future that's a wonderful thing but if you leave that world the emerging world and look at the rich world what do you see you see that America's standard of living has stagnated the average
• 05:00 - 05:30 American has seen their standard of living stagnating for the last 20 years I recently went to wolver Hampton the exact opposite of Jing da a world where people have seen their lives broken by de-industrialization a world where people do not have hope for the future and the worrying thing to me is that in this period of hyper globalization productivity growth has actually been much slower than it was from 1945 to about 1970 when you had a much more controlled version of globalization so
• 05:30 - 06:00 we have promised an acceleration in growth and what we've seen in the rich world at least productivity growth beginning to stagnate a great stagnation the globalizers promised that they would be a sort of platonic Guardian class they said well of course we'll have turbulence of course we'll have Capital movements of course we'll have hot money running around the world but we understand the science of Economics we can control these things we'll give you the great moderation we'll end the boom bus cycle we can
• 06:00 - 06:30 control globalization we'll unleash this Force it'll make you richer and we can control it well that argument was blown away by the global financial crisis which was testimony to extremely poor financial management so things are not going well the globalizers promised as well that all good things would tend to go together you wouldn't just get Global markets advancing you get democracy
• 06:30 - 07:00 advancing you wouldn't just get Global markets and democracy advancing You' get liberal values advancing everything would go together there was a lot of talk about how democracies never go to war with each other there was even talk about how two countries with the McDonald's will never go to war with each other that's how silly things became this hasn't happened we haven't had this Triumph of global liberal values we've had an alternative model of globalization which is authoritarian globalization with people like Putin people people like tur countries like
• 07:00 - 07:30 turkey which are based on the idea of authoritarian illiberal globalization authoritarian illiberal glob global capitalism as an alternative to the liberal West one of the great debates in the 1990s was between Francis fukiyama and his argument about the end of history and Samuel Huntington who talked about The Clash of civilizations well what we've seen is Huntington win that argument absolutely dramatically globalization has not killed nationalism
• 07:30 - 08:00 has not killed xenophobia quite often it's Unleashed it and made it even worse and the Very people the very people who are making these hubristic arguments have actually engaged in a massive process of self-dealing they've done exceptionally well out of this process of globalization at a time when we've seen economic stagnation the global Elite has got richer and richer and richer and made out like Bandits we've seen politicians in the re evolving door
• 08:00 - 08:30 going from running regulatory bodies operating in Parliament to working for these global companies we've seen global companies Great marvelous global companies that claim to be doing good in the world concealing money from tax the the tax system engaging in the most extraordinary process of lobbying rigging the system hiding their profits we've seen a global elite elite preaching the virtues of globalization but instead acting as sort of crony capitalists crony globalists and I think
• 08:30 - 09:00 something else has gone on at this time globalization offers a very difficult World it uproots people's lives it challenges their cultures but what does it offer in return I haven't seen any great depth the astonishing thing about globalization is how shallow it's quite often been how shallow its uh offering has been so if you look back to the great age of liberal nationalism in the 19th century you had an extraordinary
• 09:00 - 09:30 flowering of culture you had Balzac you had beton you had great artists what have we had during the era of hyper globalization airport lounges management textbooks it's been an extremely disappointing era from that perspective but above all what globalization or hyper globalization has done is to unleash its opposite it's Unleashed a very ugly for form of nationalism so
• 09:30 - 10:00 confronted with broken promises confronted with stagnant economies confronted with cronish global Elites that look after each other the masses people are beginning to turn to the worst sorts of snake oil salesmen they're turning to people who say well the best alternative to hyper globalization is ethnic nationalism the best alternative to um doing too much to uh push freedom of of of movement of
• 10:00 - 10:30 people and ideas is protectionism a managed economy from the top so I think the great challenge of liberals over the next few years is to save globalization by reforming it this will involve a great deal more humility on the part of liberals it will involve a willingness to compromise about fundamental things or things that they thought were fundamental and I think the free movement of people might well be part of that I think the
• 10:30 - 11:00 insistence by the European Union that the free movement of people is absolutely undebatable is May well be uh going much too far it will be it will involve a willingness to recognize that nationalism has a bright side as well as a dark side we need to rescue the good side of nationalism in order to prevent the Triumph of the bad side of nationalism it will involve a sort of humility on the part of people we've seen over the last on the part of globalist we've seen over the era of
• 11:00 - 11:30 triumphant globalism a sort of Bourgeois triumphalism the sort of notion we're right everybody who doesn't agree with us is wrong anybody who doesn't agree with our values about free trade free movement across borders gender fluidity and the rest of it must be some stump too bigoted nationalists and we need to demonize them and write them out of the script and this is coming from people who've mismanaged this process and have made themselves rich in the process of globalization and I think above all we need to have a
• 11:30 - 12:00 war against self-dealing against Global cronyism we need to stop this door from revolving we need to stop these tax Havens from being created to save uh companies from from paying uh any taxes so the price of failure the price of failure from this process will be an ugly world of nationalism and xenophobia and the people who will be responsible for creating this ugly world will be just as much overreaching globalists as
• 12:00 - 12:30 they are tub thumping nationalists thank [Applause] you