Backtesting Turtle Soup Trading Model (Best ICT Strategy)

Summary

Highlights

• A total of 11 trades were taken with 9 wins and 2 losses, achieving a 72% account increase. 🎉
• Key trading focus is between 9:00 to 11:00 AM Eastern, capturing most trade setups. 🕘
• The strategy involves waiting for liquidity sweeps within high timeframe key levels. 🔍
• Utilizes both short and long strategies, targeting opposing liquidity for profit. ⚔️
• The backtesting session showcases both successful and learning-experience trades. 🤓

Key Takeaways

• The Turtle Soup Trading Model boasts an impressive 81% win rate! 📈
• Most trades occur during the New York AM session between 9:00 and 11:00 AM. 🕒
• Understanding market structure and liquidity sweeps is crucial for success. 🧐
• Patience and strategic manipulation techniques are key in trading. 🧘‍♂️
• A risk-reward ratio of 3.5 ensures high returns with manageable risk. 💰

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:30: Statistics and Account Balance In this chapter, the speaker discusses their recent trading statistics, having completed 11 trades with 9 wins and 2 losses, resulting in an 81% win rate. The account balance increased by 72%, but one loss was deemed a mistake, potentially increasing the win rate to 90%. The speaker highlights a trading model with a 3.5 reward-risk ratio, emphasizing a high reward-risk and high win rate. Most setups occur during the New York AM session.
• 01:30 - 05:30: Strategy Explanation and Setup In the chapter titled 'Strategy Explanation and Setup,' the speaker discusses the effectiveness of their trading strategy, boasting a high win rate and risk-reward ratio (RR). The strategy is described as simple but requires patience. The speaker suggests using code 'ht4l' at TakeProfit Trader for those interested in testing the strategy. The core of the strategy, referred to as the 'turtle soup trading model,' will be backtested by analyzing lower time frame accumulation.
• 05:30 - 09:30: Trade Example 1: Short Setup In this chapter, the author explains the concept of identifying trading setups through engineered equal highs and lows. They describe the importance of waiting for a 'stop hunt' or 'raid' on liquidity to occur, which signifies manipulation within the market. This manipulation should occur at a higher time frame key level or a pertinent level of a higher time frame PD (Price Delivery). The first potential entry point in this setup is referred to as the 'turtle soup'. For added confirmation, traders are advised to wait for displacement and a shift in market structure on a lower time frame.
• 09:30 - 15:00: Trade Example 2: Long Setup In this chapter, the focus is on a long trading setup example. The strategy involves entering a trade from the order block or imbalance that forms, targeting opposing liquidity for taking profit. Ideally, this setup is expected to occur between 9:00 and 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. However, this specific session will cover the entire New York session, including the AM, lunch, and PM periods. Currently, on the daily chart, there is an upward trend with buy-side delivery, and price is forming discount arrays and using a counter as a strategy.
• 15:00 - 18:30: Trade Example 3: Short Setup In "Trade Example 3: Short Setup," the chapter discusses trading at all-time highs with noticeable imbalances in the market. It highlights the concept of price needing to rebalance these imbalances. As the market approaches the 9:30 open, there is clear accumulation, indicating engineered buy and sell side activity. The setup suggests a potential short opportunity as traders watch the market reaction.
• 18:30 - 23:00: Trade Example 4: Long Setup The chapter 'Trade Example 4: Long Setup' begins with the anticipation of market activity as one side of the trade is expected to be 'swept' before the 9:30 open. As the market opens at 9:30, the price engages with the buy side. Upon observing the market layout, it's noted that there is a 15-minute imbalance formed, which the current price is actively trading within. This setup is crucial for understanding the subsequent market moves.
• 23:00 - 27:30: Trading Sessions Overview The chapter discusses the concept of price swings in trading, focusing on the analysis of higher time frame and hourly charts. The main highlights include trading up to 50% of a higher time frame impulse swing and identifying a critical 'A+' setup where price forms and trades within the 1 hour cumulative imbalance (cibi). Key elements such as accumulation and a stop raid into a higher time frame key level are emphasized, with a brief mention of 15-minute cycles, although the details on the latter are not fully included in the transcript.
• 27:30 - 32:30: Analyzing Market Structure and Entry Points The chapter discusses the technical analysis of market structures and determines entry points for trades using specific strategies. It emphasizes setting stop losses at the close of the up closed candle when the market is bearish, using these candles as order blocks for downward movement. The strategy further involves targeting equal lows as the exit point and entails risking 3% per trade as a standard protocol.
• 32:30 - 37:30: Trade Example 5: Long Setup The chapter discusses a long trade setup in which the trader is adjusting their position to manage risk. Initially, their trade size is reduced by half. They observe the price movements, noting that the price has filled in the 15-minute CBI and entered the hourly CBI. The price hits the 62 OT and gets rejected, prompting the trader to consider the potential for equal lows to be swept. To mitigate risk, the trader decides to show their stop loss and reduce further risk exposure.
• 37:30 - 42:30: Trade Example 6: Short Setup Chapter Title: Trade Example 6: Short Setup This chapter presents a successful trading strategy execution, tagged as an A+ setup. It details the process of accumulation followed by manipulation into a higher time frame key level. The chapter highlights the rejection of all premium arrays before targeting and achieving full take profit by attacking the liquidity built during the accumulation phase.
• 42:30 - 45:30: Reflections and Statistical Review The chapter focuses on the analysis of a potential trading setup as the market heads into the 9,930 level shortly after the market opens at 9:30 AM. The speaker notes that there is accumulation occurring, suggesting a potential increase in price movement. For a successful setup, the speaker suggests that a change in the delivery state's direction, specifically moving lower, is necessary. The aim is to identify whether such a setup will form in the upcoming session.

Backtesting Turtle Soup Trading Model (Best ICT Strategy) Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 hey guys these are the stats we took 11 trades we had nine wins two losses and 81% win rate we can see our account balance is up 72% this is our Equity curve and honestly one of the losses we took shouldn't have even counted I made a mistake late into the back testing session so there should be 90% win rate you guys will see later on and if we scroll down we can see our average RR so my trading model has a 3.5 RR this means that we're risking $1 in order to make 3.5 so we have a high RR we have a high win rate we're going to see some more stats here most of my setups form during the new York am. session from 9: to
• 00:30 - 01:00 11:00 a.m. eastern we can scroll down a little bit more and we can see that we have very little losses in comparison to our big wins overall I'd say my trading strategy is one of the best in the entire world it has a high win rate it has a high RR it's simple to follow it just requires some patience if you want to test out my strategy don't forget to use code ht4l at takeprofit Trader I'd highly recommend using them if you want to test this out and with that being said let's get right into it this is my turtle soup trading model we're going to be back testing today we're going to be looking for lower time frame accumulation the accumul should be very
• 01:00 - 01:30 clear and obvious where we see equal highs and equal lows engineered we're going to wait for one side to be engaged with that's going to be our manipulation so we're going to wait for our stop hunt our raid your liquidity sweep and we want to see this occur within a higher time frame key level within a higher time frame PD this will be our first entry our turtle soup or if we need more Confluence we're going to wait for some displacement wait for a lower time frame Market structure shift change in the
• 01:30 - 02:00 state of delivery and then we'll look to enter off of the order block or the imbalance that forms we're then going to Target the opposing liquidity to take profit ideally this setup will form between 9:00 to 11:00 a.m. eastern however for this session specifically we are going to go through the entirety of the New York session so we're going to be focused on the am lunch and PM session for New York so here we are on the daily chart we can see price has been trending up we've delivered buy side we have formed discount arrays price has been using disc counter as a
• 02:00 - 02:30 support and it looks like we just engaged with our alltime high so looks like we're trading at all-time highs here again we form some imbalances which price may look to rebalance so let's see how price delivers heading into 930 open so heading into 930 we do see we have some pretty clear and obvious accumulation here price is engineered buy side and sell side
• 02:30 - 03:00 so we want to see one side swept heading into 930 so let's see how price delivers so we have 9:30 open we can see that price has engaged with the buy side let's see if we look to our left we can see that price is also formed this 15-minute imbalance which price is currently trading in that's also Mark Mark out the
• 03:00 - 03:30 range of this price swing on the higher time frame we can see that price has traded up into 50% of this higher time frame impulse swing let's take a look at the hourly chart we do see price is also formed and is trading in the 1 hour cibi so right now this is an A+ setup we have our clear and obvious accumulation we have our stop raid into a higher time frame key level 15- minute Cy out L Cy higher
• 03:30 - 04:00 time frame OT so we're going to enter into a total slop short here our stop loss is going to be placed at the close of the up closed candle if price is bearish the up closed candles should be used as order blocks for delivery lower so we're going to have our stop at the close and we are going to be targeting the equal lows just below so let's enter into this trade we are going to be risking 3% for each trade unless we take a loss then we'll
• 04:00 - 04:30 cut our size in half so now that we're in let's see how price is going to deliver so we can see price traded up really filled in the 15-minute CBI dug into that hourly CBI we see price tag the 62 OT rejected so right now we want to see these equal low swept I'm going to show my stop loss reduce some of the risk here
• 04:30 - 05:00 so we can see that our full takeprofit hit this is an A+ setup again accumulation we manipulated up into a higher time frame key level we rejected all these premium arrays and then we attacked the liquidity that was engineered during the accumulation this
• 05:00 - 05:30 was an A+ setup so now we're going to focus on the next session so here we are heading into 9930 open we can see we do have some accumulation here so we want to see one side swept heading into 930 we can see price has been ripping up in order for a set up to form we would need to see a change in the state of delivery lower let's see if we can get that
• 05:30 - 06:00 so we see we had no manipulation no change in the state of delivery so no problem no manipulation no raid no trade we're going to focus on the next session now so here we are heading into 9:30 open we can see that we do have some accumulation here price is getting close to some of the cell side we have some previous cell side that was engineered right
• 06:00 - 06:30 here so let's see how we deliver heading into 9:30 open so we have 9:30 open price did engage at the sell side and it looks like there was a news release at 8:30 a.m. let's drop down to the lower time frame yep so we have a data High here we have this Wick and we have this data loan during our 8:30 or 9:30 news release or sometimes even 10 a.m. when
• 06:30 - 07:00 we form these big Wicks we're likely going to see them engaged with so right now I'd be looking for price to engage with the data high or the data low we can also see here on the lower time frame we have some more accumulation so we can see we're still accumulating
• 07:00 - 07:30 here we're getting close to the sell site we're forming a bunch of equal lows so we can see price has now swept the data low we've engaged with all this engineered cell side do we have higher time frame support we do we have a 1H Hour 4 Hour absy here fair value
• 07:30 - 08:00 Gap so here on the lower time frame we have accumulation this is our potential manipulation and then we can Target for distribution the data high so we're going to enter into a long position here we're going to Target that data high and we are going to have our stop loss at about 25 points so a quick little tip for your turtle soup it is good to see price dig into pull liquidity we can see so far price
• 08:00 - 08:30 has delivered about 10 points into the sell side after price delivers 10 to 20 points into a liquidity pool after the sweep we want to look to enter into the turtle soup and then we're going to have a 20 30 point stop loss and by then that's giving us Extra Protection because we have to remember our turtle soup what is a turtle soup it is a false breakout or a false breakdown it is a fake move it is to induce so
• 08:30 - 09:00 like right now I would consider this move a short inducement if this is a turtle soup we should see price react up very quickly off of this level off of this raid so by allowing price to trade in 10 to 20 points into a liquidity pool and then entering into the position having a 20 to 30 point stop loss if this is the turtle soup price should not trade 50 60 point points
• 09:00 - 09:30 down into this again your turtle soup it is a fake move it is an inducement if this is a short inducement price should rip up here so we're going to enter into this long we have a 25 Point hard stop so we should see a reaction up off of this raid here so we can see price dug in a little bit more how many handles did
• 09:30 - 10:00 deliver like 25 points into this liquidity pool by waiting 10 to 20 points for your entry and then having a 10 to 30 point stop you are protected from this delivery so right now we should honestly see price fly up here and there's our delivery so our distribution is occurring right now we've just engaged with some of these equal highs we now want to see that data High swept
• 10:00 - 10:30 and there we go another really good trade we risked less than 30 points to make 90 this is a 3.7 hour trade lower time frame accumulation is very clear and obvious we have our data High data low as well we waited for a sweep this manipulation occurred within a higher time frame PD we entered into our turtle soup and we targeted the opposing liquidity really good trade here really good stuff so now we're
• 10:30 - 11:00 going to focus on the next trading session so we can see heading into 930 open we do have some higher time frame accumulation here here on the 15 minute we can see that price has just engaged with this buy side so here on the higher time frame this could be our manipulation so we want to see a change in the state of delivery lower and then I feel comfortable entering into a
• 11:00 - 11:30 short so we can see right at 9:30 open price has delivered more buy side we've really dug in to all the orders that are resting above these highs so right now what I'd want to see I'd
• 11:30 - 12:00 want to see a change in the state of delivery so whether we form an order block ifg we want to see some displacement lower here if this is our manipulation so right now we have formed this fiveman in Balance if we can violate this I will look to enter into a short and we can Target all these equal lows and this Gap here
• 12:00 - 12:30 so we can see we Wicked below but look at our body we want to see a body closure below the imbalance so we can see we just got our candle Clos below so now I'm going to look to enter into a short if price can retrace up into the imbalance for ifgs I like to enter on retracements for the ifg or the order block I'm not a huge fan of entering off of a close like right here price can still retrace up into the order block so I prefer for my ifgs for
• 12:30 - 13:00 my inverse for Val apps I like to enter on retracements I know there are some traders that will just enter here but by me waiting for retracement up into the imbalance I get better RR so we're going to Target these equal lows and that Gap so we're going for 140 points our stop loss will be placed at the high of the up close candle if we form a change in state of delivery the up close candle should be used as resistance
• 13:00 - 13:30 so we're risking 50 points to make basically 150 let's enter into this trade here we're going to go for a limit order so again for our imbalances I like to enter within them I don't like these close proximity entries like we could enter here but now our RR is not as good so we're going to wait for a retracement up see if we can get that retracement for our short and again we're going to be targeting these equal lows
• 13:30 - 14:00 so we can see we just got filled price are traced up into the imbalance we see a little reaction here we just want to see continuation lower to the cell site that was engineered during this higher time frame accumulation really good stuff so we see that our full takeprofit hit and we risk 50 points to make basically 150 close to three R really good stuff another trade so now we're going to focus on the next trading
• 14:00 - 14:30 session so we can see heading in the 930 open we do have some accumulation price has start to deliver more buy side let's drop down to the lower time frame do we have any accumulation here a little bit on the five minute but price just has been trending upwards let's see how we deliver at 9:30 open
• 14:30 - 15:00 so we've just engaged with some of these equal highs here let take a look to our left we have just formed a new all-time high we swept this buy side so I'd like to see a change in the state of delivery lower [Music] here we can see price is still delivering buy side the order flows bullish here on the lower time frame and yeah so we're just continuing to deliver buy side no real accumulation no real manipulation so we
• 15:00 - 15:30 have no trade we're going to move on to the next session so here we are heading into 9:30 open we do have some accumulation here we have the sell side and we have the buy side that's been engineered we also have this big gap so price could seek to rebalance it I would say that'd be the only issue if price engages with the sell side
• 15:30 - 16:00 right now and we look to buy for turtle soup we'd have to be careful because we could get delivery down to rebalance this Gap let's measure out 50% of the range here you can do this for your order blocks for your gaps so for example if price is bullish we really shouldn't get closes below 50% of this we should not trade below and close below 50% of this
• 16:00 - 16:30 Gap so this lets us know that after if sell site is swept first we may see another 80 points lower rebalancing this move and if we engage with the and if we engage with the buy side here if we engage with these equal highs then we could actually Target 50% of this Gap so let's see how price reacts a
• 16:30 - 17:00 heading into 9:30 open we drop down to a lower time frame so let's see what we get here so we do see a little sweep here little shallow run let's see if price rips up to these equal highs or if we look to rebalance some of this so we see price has traded back down
• 17:00 - 17:30 we're really close to 50% of this Gap we can see here on the lower time frame we have engineered a bunch of equal highs here so if we can form a change in the state of delivery I may look to buy
• 17:30 - 18:00 so we can see price is now trading at 50% so let's zoom out a little bit and we always want to Mark out 50% we always want to Mark out our range we always want to have 50% of a higher time frame candle of a gap of an Impulse swing because price is always moving from a premium to a discount and from a discount to a premium it's happening across every single time frame so the the fact that we've now traded into
• 18:00 - 18:30 50% of this Gap we may see reaction up here if we do see reaction up we can hunt for a long position and we have our accumulation we have our manipulation potential manipulation we have a higher time frame Gap so now we want to see a change in the state of delivery on the one minute
• 18:30 - 19:00 so we see we do have a change in the state of delivery here we do have this buy we have these imbalances that have formed we have another bissy right here so if we're aiming for those equal highs and we were to buy here Target the equal highs we can have
• 19:00 - 19:30 our stop loss basically just below these lows right here so we go for 30 points it's about three R we're going to reduce our size for this trade just because price could potentially deliver a lower into this Gap if we're going to rip though we really should not trade below and close below 50% of that range so let's see if we can get filled and we can Target the equal High
• 19:30 - 20:00 highs so we can see we just got fills here within the lower time frame bissy this is our imbalance so again what happened we manipulated lower into 50% of that Gap price is now displaced higher we have a lower time frame change in the state of delivery here as bullish we have a lower time frame bullish Market structure shift so we entered into Longs off of this lower time frame imbalance we have a lower time frame order block here as well so now we want to see price
• 20:00 - 20:30 trade up into the equal highs here we can see price is now traded up through this imbalance we're going to lock in some profit here I'm going to take off half I'm going to tr My Stop Plus up to break even so let's see if we can take out these equal highs
• 20:30 - 21:00 we want to see this imbalance hold as ifg and there we go so we can see the trade did deliver I would not consider this to be an A+ setup this is more of a b tier setup if we zoom out a little bit I would say this is a b tier setup simply because of how big this Gap is price could have potentially delivered lower we could have traded back down and S the lower quadrant of
• 21:00 - 21:30 this Gap so there's a little bit more of an aggressive long right here but we do see the delivery here we had displacement higher we formed a lower time frame bullish Market structure shift we also formed a change in the state of delivery we looked along within the imbalance that formed and we targeted the liquidity that was engineered during the accumulation which are these equal highs so we do see it did deliver but but that being said let's let's go to the next
• 21:30 - 22:00 session so we can see heading into 930 open we do have some lower time frame accumulation here we still have those equal highs we also have the sell side below dropping down to the lower time frame we see some lower time frame accumulation here on the 5 minute chart so heading into 930
• 22:00 - 22:30 open we do see price has delivered lower let's zoom out a little bit we could potentially consider all this to be accumulation so let's see if price can engage with this sell side here so we can see that we formed some equal lows we got no raid maybe we got some smt form here between NQ and es es may have taken out this low while NQ
• 22:30 - 23:00 didn't it is a little unfortunate that with this back testing software we're not able to compare different instruments different assets but we may have had S&T form so let's see if we can end up getting a stop rate here so we can see that price has engaged with that sell side let's zoom out a little bit do we have a higher time frame key level we have the 4our
• 23:00 - 23:30 bissy so yes we do right now I'd like to see a change in the state of delivery we do see price ended up rejecting this five minute cibi so if price can violate the cby we can look to enter into a long position here and we can see that heading into close price just continue to sell off here since we got no CSD we have no trade now we're going to focus on the next
• 23:30 - 24:00 session so here we are heading into 9:30 open we do have some pretty clear and obvious accumulation here we have some sell side we have these equal highs take a look at the five minute yep that Wick aligns with some of these equal highs right here so we see price has been accumulating shaing back and forth let's see if price can engage with
• 24:00 - 24:30 one side of the liquidity here so we're getting real close to this buy side if we sweep this buy side we could have a turtle swop short here so let's slow down a little bit we're engineering some equal highs here look how prices failed to engage with this buy side this lets me know that we're likely going to take out this buy side here if we deliver lower and we engage at the sell side I'll look to
• 24:30 - 25:00 Long targeting these equal highs and vice versa if we can take out this buy side we can look to short targeting the opposing liquidity so here we have 930 open did we engage with this buy side we did so we have slept this buy side let's take a look at the higher time frame we have a 4our CBI we have a 1 hour Cy too so if price is
• 25:00 - 25:30 bearish we will not see any delivery up into this imbalance we will use it as a breakway gap for delivery lower so let's mark out the quadrants of this 1 hour Cy here we can see price is real close to 50% so if we were to short here and we target the sou side below if we have our stop
• 25:30 - 26:00 loss basically just above the upper quadrant so we're going to short here we're going to go with 1.5% so we're going to have a reduced size just in case price could potentially seek this imbalance we don't want to see that but it could happen so in order to minimize our risk we're going to stick with 1.5% we're going to have a reduced position size we're going to enter in here so currently we've got fielded let's drop back down to the lower time frame
• 26:00 - 26:30 so we don't want to see price trade up through this 1our CBI we want to see a reaction lower targeting the opposing liquidity so we see we see the reaction here this is good let speed it up a little bit we want to see these equal lows swept so price has started to deliver a little bit lower
• 26:30 - 27:00 so we have some so we have some delivery lower here we're going to Trail our stop loss now to the high of this up close [Music] candle if price is bearish we should not violate the up close candle they should act as our bearish order block so now our risk is off we want to see these equal low sweps have we engag with the sell side here we're real close to it so let's see if
• 27:00 - 27:30 we can take out these lows so we see price is currently rejecting the up close candles which is good we don't want to see price trade up through them
• 27:30 - 28:00 so we can see price has just engaged with the site we are going to secure some profit here I'm going to leave my stop where it is and again we're going to aim for these outside [Music]
• 28:00 - 28:30 below so we can see that our full takeprofit hit we were in very little draw down the purpose of our stop being this big was because if we zoom out to the higher time frame again we do see we have these imbalances right above price could have potentially traded up into these imbalances so we wanted to make
• 28:30 - 29:00 sure our position could handle any of that Movement we see really good really good delivery we have our lower time frame accumulation price swept the buy side that's our soup again we traded up into a higher time frame key level which is at cby and we see the delivery lower so so far this has been really good I don't think we've taken a loss yet hopefully I don't jinx it but so far this has been pretty good so now we're going to focus on the next session
• 29:00 - 29:30 so we can see heading into 9930 open overnight price did deliver lower that short that we were in delivered 650 points which is a ton we have to be careful because price could rip up higher here to rebalance the down move so let's see how price deliver is heading into 930 so if we zoom in do we have any accumulation a little bit of accumulation here take a
• 29:30 - 30:00 look at the one minute we do have some potential AMD here we engaged with the buy side we've now we now have a lower time frame change in the state of delivery did we take out this buy side here we did the only thing is I don't like these equal highs here ideally during the manipulation we for form a swing point we do not want to see equal highs
• 30:00 - 30:30 or lows since we have equal highs price could potentially trade back up so let's see how price delivers here yep so we can see price is traded up sought the equal highs we've left that sell side alone let's see if we can form a change in the state of delivery lower here we do have this lower time frame IM balance right here
• 30:30 - 31:00 so price has traded up into these imbalances let's zoom out so here on the 4 Hour we see price has traded up into a CBI so we do have a higher time frame key level looking at the hourly we've traded up into a one hour CBI we've engaged with some buy side we could look to sell here the only thing we'd have to be concerned about is
• 31:00 - 31:30 if price delivers higher to rebalance this down move so let's take a look at the one minute so we do have a ivg we took out some of the buy side we could aim for those equal lows so we're going to enter into the trade we're going to be a little bit
• 31:30 - 32:00 careful with this trade simply because price could bounce up and seek the higher time frame imbalances we can look to rebalance those so we're going to reduce our size here we're going to stick with 1.5% so let's see if this ivg can hold here lower time frame accumulation we have a bunch of equal lows so we want to see price reject this imbalance right
• 32:00 - 32:30 here and we can see we were immediately stopped out so let's see if this is just another stop hunt or if we continue to deliver higher so we can see price ended up ripping up so why did this fail that trade failed for the exact reason we just spoke of earlier it looks like price is seeking to rebalance the down move move let's take a look at the hourly
• 32:30 - 33:00 chart yeah so we had the big selloff overnight so this up move does make sense because we're looking to rebalance the down move so I would say that is the reason why the trade failed is because we're basically we shorted in a higher time frame discount so for your Journal make sure you know we got to be aware of the higher time frame if we're in a higher time frame discount we should not be looking to sell on the lower time
• 33:00 - 33:30 frame so let's move on to the next session so here we are heading into 930 open we do see we have some accumulation we have these equal highs we have these equal lows let's zoom in a little bit so we can see on the lower time frame we do have some more accumulation so we want to see price engage either with the sell side or run
• 33:30 - 34:00 the equal highs so let's see how price delivers heading into 930 so we have delivered buy side on this up move what have we've done we've engineered some more equal lows we are close to some of this buy side here so let's see if we can gauge with it did we sweep this buy side here we did engage with some of this lower time frame buy side again we sell up all
• 34:00 - 34:30 these equal highs we have highs here more highs more highs more highs so if I was going to look to short ideally we'd clear out more buy side here so if we zoom out to the 15 minute we can see we are currently in some higher time frame accumulation if we were to sell here we'd have to be careful because price could trade up and seek that buy
• 34:30 - 35:00 side so we can see that the cell site has been swept let's zoom out do we have a higher time frame key level yes we do we have a higher time frame bissy so we have a 1 hour a 4our for Value Gap we do have these equal highs here and we have the equal highs up
• 35:00 - 35:30 at 740 and we have the external range liquidity too so now that some erl has been swept so again we did sweep some lower time frame buy side but this was not the external range liquidity we zoom out to the 15 minute that buy side is all the way up at 740 we have though engaged with the equal lows we have swept our external range sell side so I would say I'd feel
• 35:30 - 36:00 more confident buying here for a turtle soup have a 35 Point stop loss and we are going to go for the equal highs and really the external range liquidity so we're basically risking 30 points to make over 200 which is really good this really good RR we could have a big bigger stop to really handle any draw down into
• 36:00 - 36:30 these imbalances but again remember for your turtle soup it should be a fast move it should be an inducement if this is a soup we really shouldn't see price start flushing all the way down we we really shouldn't see it we it should be a fast energetic move this should be a short inducement yeah we clear out the cell side it should be an inducement lower to trap traders to trap anyone who shorted and we should see this placement higher so so again with your turtle soup what I
• 36:30 - 37:00 like to do we can see price has delivered 30 points into this pool liquidity plus a 30 point stop loss we really shouldn't be trading through it so we're going to enter into this trade here I'd consider this to be an A+ setup we swept our external range liquidity we traded into a higher time frame key level we have a bunch of equal highs we have a bunch of Bight that's been engineered
• 37:00 - 37:30 that has not been engaged with so let's see how price delivers so we can see we have delivered some buy side here we do have a change in the save delivery so we're going to Trail our stop loss up basically to break even we want to see these equal High swept and we really want to see that external range buy side engaged with
• 37:30 - 38:00 so far so good we're holding these down closed candles as support so there we just engage with this buy side yes we did so we're going
• 38:00 - 38:30 to secure some profit here I'm going to take off half and we're going to Trail our stop- loss into profit so now we want to see that external range bide engaged with so I'm going to tr my stop loss up into
• 38:30 - 39:00 profit we're so close to that external range buy side we should see it swept now I don't want to see price deliver lower and there we go our external range liquidity was swept so this was another really really good setup again if we zoom out what
• 39:00 - 39:30 were we really waiting for we were waiting for price to engage with one side of the external range liquidity that is going to be your highest probability turtle soup is when the erl is swept not the internal range liquidity if we would have shorted after that high was swept it would have delivered on the lower time frame we could have aimed for those equal lows but we just have to be careful because price could have continued to pump up if we short this price could have pumped up and sought the external
• 39:30 - 40:00 range liquidity so this is a good example of why we should wait for the erl to be swept when hunting for a trade so now we're going to go on to our next trading session so here we are heading into 930 open we do have some accumulation here we have buy side and we have this sell side let's see how price still is heading into 9:30 open so we can see price has engaged
• 40:00 - 40:30 with this buy side let's zoom out to the higher time frame we are trading within this higher time frame premium aray let's take a look at the hourly oh we're real close to that 1 hour CBI so what I would look for right now if we're going to Short here we need to see a lower time frame CSD if not price is going to seek this 1 hour
• 40:30 - 41:00 imbalance right here so let's drop back down to the lower time frame we need to see an ivg in order block form in order for us to short because if not we're going to trade up into that higher time frame imbalance so we can see we have traded up we've delivered higher we do have this imbalance right here so I want to see this imbalance violated if we're going to
• 41:00 - 41:30 short so we can see price bounced up off of it and continue to deliver buy side this is letting us know that the order flow is currently bullish so the whole purpose of this up move is to rebalance the down move that occurred a few sessions ago so this is understandable looks like we have no trade today so we will focus on the next trading
• 41:30 - 42:00 session so here we are heading into 9:30 open we do see we have some lower time frame accumulation here let's see how price deliver is heading into open so here at 9:30 open we have delivered some buy side did we sweep this High here no so we have engineered
• 42:00 - 42:30 some equal highs we also have these equal lows here so we want to see one side swept we can see price swept the sell side big reaction up taking a look at the one minute chart we do have an ivg so let let's see if we were to buy here on a
• 42:30 - 43:00 retracement this is about 1.7 R so we are close to 2 R we're going to enter into a buy position here if price can retrace into these imbalances we just engaged with the sell side we see a big reaction up so this is our turtle soup so we did miss our first
• 43:00 - 43:30 entry because I was on the five minute it was going a little bit too fast but let's zoom out we have higher time frame discount arates here 4our bissy 1 hour bissy lower time frame accumulation this is our manipulation here so we should see these equal highs swept let's see if we can get entry for this long
• 43:30 - 44:00 so we can see we just got fills here on the retracement into these imbalances we want to see price bounce up off of them here we just engaged with that by side so we're going to take some profit here and we're going to Trail our stop loss to break even
• 44:00 - 44:30 so we can see how price has really dug up into that buy side so another good setup we accumulated here on the lower time frame we were waiting for these equal highs to be swept or the equal lows price engaged with the sell side first we then have had a change in the state of delivery so we got the second entry since we're on the 5 minute and
• 44:30 - 45:00 this back testing tool was going a little too fast we missed the soup so our first entry would have been so this would have been our first trade enter on the stop raid we can to have a hard stop of 20 30 handles we see delivered really well since we missed that entry on the 5 minute we waited for a retracement back down into these lower time frame inbalance B es we have our ifg and this is after a lower time frame
• 45:00 - 45:30 change in the state of delivery and a bullish Market structure shift formed so we had our stop just at the low of the imbalances targeting the equal highs and we see price delivered so this one was close to 2 R made about 80 handles while risking 40 so good trade now we're going to move on to the next one so we can see heading into 9:30 open we have some equal highs we have this
• 45:30 - 46:00 sell site here let's see how price delivers so we can see here on the one minute we have just engaged with this sell side let's zoom out a little bit we're trading back in this higher time
• 46:00 - 46:30 frame discount array the higher time frame bisses so this could be a potential long here and we can Target these equal highs so we want to see a change in the state of delivery form so we can see price has delivered
• 46:30 - 47:00 lower this could be our higher time frame manipulation so we do see on the higher time frame all this accumulation here this could be our manipulation down we're currently rebalancing those higher time frame imbalances look at the 4 Hour we see price is trading in these imbalances down close candles take a look at the hourly chart same thing so this could be our higher time frame manipulation we want to see a change in the state of delivery
• 47:00 - 47:30 form so price is still delivering lower here so right now price has really dug down into that sell side you have all this buy side that price formed
• 47:30 - 48:00 so we see here on the lower time frame price has been accumulating we have these equal highs we have the
• 48:00 - 48:30 sell side so we may have a lower time frame entry model again we are trading in higher time frame discount in the higher time frame the 4H hour order block the 4H hour imbalances so we have accumulation forming within potential higher time for manipulation so let's see how this goes
• 48:30 - 49:00 so we can see the cellsite has just been swept I want to see a change in the state of delivery form before I'm just entering because we do have to be careful again if we zoom out to the higher time frame price has delivered a bunch of sell side we are trading in the higher time frame inbalance though so we do have higher time frame support which is good we Dro down to the lower time frame we can see that this could
• 49:00 - 49:30 be higher time frame manipulation for distribution up and then if we drop down to the lower time frame to the 1 minute we see we have the exact same setup forming we've accumulated we have equal highs equal lows price is currently engaging with the sell side and we are trading within that 4H hour bissy so we're trading in discount arate which is good which means the lower time frame and higher time frame are currently aligned for
• 49:30 - 50:00 Longs but for extra confirmation right now I'd want to see a change in the state of delivery form so now price is start to displace higher we do have this down Clos candle so if price can ret Trace into these down close candles we can look to take a buy
• 50:00 - 50:30 position price has just traded down into it right now so we're going to enter into Longs here we're going to be targeting the equal highs our stop loss could be placed right at the swing low we're going to give us a little bit more breathing [Music] room so we are currently in Longs we want to see these down close candles hold if we Wick below that's okay we just do not want to see candle closures
• 50:30 - 51:00 below so again we have our lower time frame AMD with a potential higher time frame manipulation and we're also trading in a higher time frame discount arate so right now we do have some good alignment we got to see delivery higher here so we see the reaction up off of these down closed Cal this is good remember we waited for a lower time frame change in save delivery we also have a lower time frame bullish Market structure shift I'm going to Trill my stop loss up just a little bit reduce some of the risk
• 51:00 - 51:30 here but we want to see price attack the equal highs that were engineered so price has traded all the way back down to this last down Clos candle if price is going to deliver higher this needs to be acting as support
• 51:30 - 52:00 we're going to speed it up a little bit so we do see pric is now delivering higher we do have some lower time frame buy side right here price just swept it so we're going to take off we're going to take off half here and we're going to Trail our stop loss to break even we don't want this trade to go red so let's see if price can pump up to the lower time frame equal highs
• 52:00 - 52:30 and there we go so this is really good delivery so we can see price accumulated we engaged with the sell side keep in mind we're trading in a 4H hour bissy a higher time frame for Value app which is acting as our Confluence instead of just entering into a soup here because we did sell off quite a bit from 9:30 open we sold off quite a bit we wanted to see a lower time frame change in the state of delivery so this
• 52:30 - 53:00 up move right here formed a bullish Market structure shift it also formed your bullish CSD so once price retraced down into these down closed candles we entered into a long our OG stop loss was like 35 points so we basically secured 3.5 arm once price started displacing higher we traed our stop to the swing low price should not trade below this candle and we see that delivery really good stuff so we're now going to focus on the next trading
• 53:00 - 53:30 session so here we are heading into 930 I was going to say we did have some accumulation here but look how much price sold off right at 7:30 so there must have been some news we did just engage with some of the sell site here we are trading in a 4our bsy as [Music]
• 53:30 - 54:00 well so let's see how price delivers at 930 so price has continued to sell off if we're going to get delivery higher we really want to see a CSD we see how price is rejecting these imbalances let's drop down to the 5 minute we see the same thing so let's see if price can displace up higher here if we violate some of these cbies we can look at taking a long
• 54:00 - 54:30 position so we can see price has traded up through this on the five minute let's take a look at the 15 minute because that is a 15minute CBI we do have an ivg here so here let's zoom out again so what is price done we got a little reaction off of this 4H hour order
• 54:30 - 55:00 block so that could be acting as our higher time frame key level we do have this Sate right here price could seek that hourly imbalance let's go back to the 15minute so this could be our accumulation our manipulation down into the 4-Hour order block and then we could distribute
• 55:00 - 55:30 higher here so we're going to take a long off of this imbalance off of this ivg we're going to Target these equal highs and our stop loss is going to be placed at the close of the down close candle so let's see how this plays out we're going to get a limit order in so ideally we see price bounce up off of these imbalances here off of these
• 55:30 - 56:00 down Clos candles for delivery higher so price pumped up without giving us any entry we did trade up into this imbalance since it's been rebalance price could sell off here so I'm going to cancel this limit order so let's see price traded back down into
• 56:00 - 56:30 the imbalance let's see if the trade plays out or if we continue lower here so we can see price did deliver lower so here's another tip prior to this up move what do we have we had this balance that was unfilled remember price is doing one and
• 56:30 - 57:00 two things seeking liquidity or rebalancing imbalances and inefficiencies the fact that we have equal highs the fact that we have imbalances that have not been filled led me to believe that we can see some delivery higher into the imbalance into the equal highs we formed this ivg here so I wanted to see price retrace in and then deliver up the fact that we traded up into the imbalance and rejected it this does not
• 57:00 - 57:30 become this is not A+ setup no more this would have been like a c a c tier because we see price had already delivered up 200 points the fact that we've come back down we've rejected the cibi the higher time frame has been bearish really good we sat out so I want you to write down in your notes unfilled imbalances imbalances that have not been re balanced we can use those as a Target we
• 57:30 - 58:00 can use that as a draw liquidity if price rebalances them if price has filled it in your trade becomes a lower probability because now on this retracement lower price basically rejected the Cy it rejected the imbalance we can reject this and we can deliver lower so your high probability setups for your turtle soup it's when price has not yet rebalanced the imbalances take a look at the lower time frame let's take a look at the 5
• 58:00 - 58:30 minute so we could have had a potential entry off of this down Clos candle take a look at the one minute so here in the one minute we did have a change in state of delivery a lower time frame bullish Market structure shift we have our imbalances and Order blocks so for this trade we probably should have taken a look at the one minute because we do see it did deliver again we have our accumulation our manipulation down into
• 58:30 - 59:00 the higher time frame fair value Gap and then on the one minute we do see that we had a lower time frame bullish Market structure shift right here so we could have entered Longs within this bissy stop at the low of day and we could have targeted that 15-minute inbalance so the trade did deled but we were not part of it so no big deal we're going to focus on the next
• 59:00 - 59:30 session so here we are heading into 9:30 open we do see price is accumulating here we do have some accumulation take a look at the five minute we have some more accumulation so let's see how price delivers heading into open
• 59:30 - 60:00 so we do see so let's see what price has done so far price has engineered some sell side price has also engineered some buy side did we sweep any of this buy side here no let's take a look at the 15 minute we haven't swept any buy side yet so let's see if price can engage with some of the liquidity
• 60:00 - 60:30 here so we can see really price has just been accumulating we now engage with this sell side we could see a potential Turtle Soup long play out here and we can Target those equal highs so let's drop down to the lower time frame let's see if price can form a lower time frame CSD
• 60:30 - 61:00 here so we've engaged with more cide we have a bunch of equal highs that have been engineered let's take a look at the higher time frame we are trading in this 4our busy here so if we can pop up if we can form a CSD here I may look to enter into a long so we have a lower time frame bissy so we're going to enter into a
• 61:00 - 61:30 long here we're going to Target the equal highs and our stop loss is going to be placed at the swing low so we have some higher time frame accumulation this is all accumulation here price has now engaged with one side which is our sell side we swept it we're trading in a higher time frame per value Gap I would say the only concern with buying right here is if price delivers more
• 61:30 - 62:00 sell s side into this liquidity pool we can see that price delivered 16 points so this is a pretty shallow stop hunt price could potentially deliver more sell side I would say that's really the only thing we have to be concerned about but let's see how this plays out so we're going to enter into our long so let's see else goes so we just got filled we want to see price seek these
• 62:00 - 62:30 equal highs seek to rebalance this down move so we can see price has traded back up we're going to reduce some of our risk here we don't want to see price trade below the down close candle so our stop is now getting trailed up reducing some risk we are trading in this Cy here so we're going to want to see price trade up through
• 62:30 - 63:00 it so we can see we were just stopped out let's see if we CH our stop loss too early
• 63:00 - 63:30 so we can see price did [Music] deliver over 100 points so for this trade it looks like our analysis played out I just trailed my stop loss a little bit too early so this should have honestly been a win here this should have counted as a win but my stop- loss placement led us to getting stopped out a little too early I should have kept my stop loss at the swing low we see price never violated it and
• 63:30 - 64:00 we ended up delivering 100 handles price has traded up let's see did price trade up into 50% of this range yep again price is always moving from a premium to a discount from a discount to a premium for your turtle soup you always want to Target 50% of the range as well so we do see it did deliver so this trade was good again we had our accumulation we can zoom out here we had our accumulation here on the higher time frame we then
• 64:00 - 64:30 manipulated lower we engage with the sell side we traded into a higher time frame fair value gap on the one minute we waited for a lower time frame CSD so everything was perfect except I should have left my stop loss where where it was originally placed by me trailing my stop loss before I took any partials off that's what that's what hurt us in this trade so IID write that in our notes don't Trail stop until partials have been secured cuz if I would have left
• 64:30 - 65:00 our OG stop we would have never been stopped out we would have made 100 points on this trade so it is a little unfortunate because this trade should have counted as a win if my stop- loss placement was a little bit better maybe it's because we've been doing this for over an hour now feels like it's been over an hour so we'll do maybe one or two more trades and then we'll go over our stats so we can see here on the 15minute we do have some accumulation here price has just engaged with the buy
• 65:00 - 65:30 side so we want to see if price can form a lower time frame change in the state of delivery we can see that price has continued to deliver higher right at 9:30 we may seek that buy side we do have the CBI here
• 65:30 - 66:00 so we have equal highs this could be our manipulation I'm not going to take this trade but let's see if it does play out if we end up engaging with that lower time frame if we end up I'm not going to take this trade simply because we have too many equal highs here we have the equal highs and we have our external range liquidity but let's see if this does uh play out here so it's really good we did not take
• 66:00 - 66:30 this trade because we have these equal highs resting just above and we have the external range liquidity which was our original Target for our previous trade so we do see wow so our previous trade if we did not Trail our stop loss if I did not Trail my stop loss incorrectly we would have risked 60 points to make 400 that would have been 7R secured but no big deal it's good we set out we're going to focus on the next session
• 66:30 - 67:00 now so here we are we can see the price has delivered some buy side we've engineered some buy side we've engineered sell side so we have some lower time frame accumulation here it is pretty clear and obvious here on the 5 minute so we have this buy side and we also have some more lower time frame accumulation right here so we can see price is about to engage with this buy
• 67:00 - 67:30 side so we've engineered some equal highs so once price engages with this buy side we could look at taking a potential short here so we're real close to it so we can see that price swept this buy side we've delivered [Music] lower we see the one minute is selling off here we have all these equal lows here that have been engineered zoom out to the
• 67:30 - 68:00 higher time frame price is trading in that higher time frame cibi so we have higher time frame support so let's see if price can retrace up into these up Clos candles and we can look to enter into our short position so we can see price has retraced up here we did
• 68:00 - 68:30 engage with all this sell side here we did form some more equal lows so this short becomes a little bit more risky now because we have already engaged with some of the cell site that was engineered during the accumulation so I'm not going to take this trade we'll just for test it let's see if it delivers here and it did deliver so we see the
• 68:30 - 69:00 delivery price swept the buy side we then had a bearish market structure shift bearish change in the state of delivery price retraced up into these up closed candles which is our bearish order block and we see it did deliver 90 points so this is a three R trade 2.5r I was just a little concerned because we do see on this down move we swept all this sell side here you see all these lows price engaged with it so we engage with 1 2 3 4 5 six lower time
• 69:00 - 69:30 frame pulls the sell side so we could have traded up swept stops once more and then delivered lower but no big deal we do see the trade did deliver and I can tell that being in front of the screen for this long is affecting me a little bit so we're going to do one more we're going to do one more session and then we're going to call it a day but we do see again the trade did deliver so we can see heading into 9:30 open we do have some sside that's been engineered we also have some more equal
• 69:30 - 70:00 lows just to our left and we see all the equal highs that have been formed so we can see the price has delivered lower we did do a sweep here as well so we do see the reaction after engaging with some of these equal highs here I thought price could potentially trade it up a little bit higher but we do see our accumulation manipulation price has done some distribution
• 70:00 - 70:30 lower but the fact that price has left all these equal lows alone tells me that we may see some delivery lower here and we could actually hunt for a short targeting all the sell side that has been engineered so we've just engaged with the buy side so this is what we're going to do we're going to enter into a short here we're going to Target all these equal lows again pric has engineered a bunch of sell side and our stop loss is going to be
• 70:30 - 71:00 placed yeah right above the swing high so that's good so this is about this is a 4r trade basically 50 point stop to make 200 handles let's zoom out price is trading in a 15-minute civvy we do already have some accumulation manipulation so this could just be a retracement up into the C4 delivery lower we also have an hourly Cy price is trading in so we have some higher time frame support as well so right now everything looks good we
• 71:00 - 71:30 accumulated right now price is just engaged with that buy side and keep in mind we have all these equal lows that have been engineered so we're in the short we want to see price reacts lower since we just swept this buy set
• 71:30 - 72:00 and again if we zoom out to the higher time frame we see price is currently trading in this 15-minute Ciy so let's see how price delivers so we see price is delivering lower this is that reaction off of the higher time
• 72:00 - 72:30 frame CBI and a lower time frame raid so we accumulated here we formed a bunch of equal lows which is our main drawn liquidity this is what we're going to do we are going to secure some profit here we're going to take off half our position and we're going to tr our stop loss to break even so let's see if we can attack those equal lows
• 72:30 - 73:00 now and our full take profit was hit so we had a 50 point stop loss we zoom out to the higher time frame it's basically just above the first C that formed this 15-minute ciby we dropped down to the lower time frame we see we had our accumulation here price engaged with some of the liquidity that was engineered that was our potential manipulation we entered off with the soup on the lower time frame and the higher time frame cby and we targeted all the equal
• 73:00 - 73:30 loads that were engineered the fact that we formed all that cell side without engaging with it lets us know that we could potentially seek it so again we secured basically 4 r on that trade we're going to call it a session here if I keep on trading I feel like I might lose my Edge I might uh do some things that I want it if I'm more focused I've been looking at the charts for I don't know it's been like an hour and a half 2 hours hours I don't know um so we're going to call it a session but let's go review our stats right now so we're here
• 73:30 - 74:00 on the stats page we can see that we took 11 trades we won nine we lost two and technically one of those losers shouldn't have even counted if I had proper stop placement so that was my fault it should be 10 wins one loss 90% win rate but this okay we see that the account is up 72% so we made $36,000 on that 50k we have our Equity curve here and then we can see that from the trades we had an average RR of 3.5 that means we risked one to make 3.5 which is really good so if we scroll down to some of the analytics we can see that a majority of
• 74:00 - 74:30 our trades occurred between 9:00 to 11:00 a.m. we had two trades at 9:00 a.m. five trades at 10: we had one loss at 10 and we had another win at 11 so basically we had two 7 8 n so we had nine trades from 9 to 11 that presented themselves and this is one of the main reasons why I tell you guys we should be focusing primarily from 9: to 11:00 a.m. and with that being said if you guys have any questions please feel free to ask I'd
• 74:30 - 75:00 love to help answer any questions and until next time good luck and good Trading