"BE CAREFUL! This Is Serious..." | Michael Saylor's Last WARNING

Summary

Highlights

• Saylor turned a $50M investment in Apple and Amazon into $500M by anticipating digital shifts. 💡
• The volatility of Bitcoin is likened to a growing phase, much like LeBron James' early career. 🏀
• Bitcoin is expected to surpass gold's market value, aiming for a $100 trillion market cap in the future. 💰
• A survey shows 49% of funds entering Bitcoin come from stocks, highlighting a shift in asset allocation. 📊
• Saylor believes Bitcoin's growth will mirror tech stocks like Google and Amazon, growing consistently over time. 📈
• The emphasis is on investing in scarce, valuable assets that hold their worth over time. 🌟
• Predictability in business allows investors to make rational, confident decisions. 🎯
• The anticipation of regulatory frameworks could spur Bitcoin growth while challenging other cryptos. ⚖️

Key Takeaways

• Saylor's investment strategy involves recognizing 'unstoppable' digital networks early, like Apple and Amazon, and now Bitcoin. 📈
• Bitcoin is evolving into an institutional asset class—a transition witnessed since March 2020. 🏦
• Bonds, stocks, and real estate may not serve as reliable stores of value in the face of monetary inflation. 🔄
• Investing in 'scarce assets' like Bitcoin is becoming imperative as it emerges as a superior treasury asset. 💎
• The unpredictability of the crypto market requires a long-term strategic focus rather than short-term trading. ⏳
• Regulatory clarity could accelerate Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption, despite tumult for other cryptocurrencies. 📜

Overview

"BE CAREFUL! This Is Serious..." | Michael Saylor's Last WARNING Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 I invested $50 million in apple and Amazon nine years ago I made 500 million off of it you know it's a 10 bagger not that hard I'm not proud of it all I did was buy these digital networks when 99% of the people didn't agree with me when they were Unstoppable and I waited and I swore to myself if I ever saw another one I wouldn't just do it personally I would put my company into it I think the people that lived the last decade the
• 00:30 - 01:00 first decade of Bitcoin have been scarred by their experiences because they had a very volatile first decade but I think that those are misleading because the system is evolved institutions have come into the marketplace and since March of 2020 it's totally different asset class if you look at the chart since March it goes up 50% down 25% up 50 retraces 20 up 60 retraces 2530 up 50 retraces is 25 and so it's actually simply growing the way
• 01:00 - 01:30 I explain it to people is if you studied LeBron James's career from age 9 to 18 he was talented but volatile but it would be a mistake to extrapolate from the first nine years or first 10 years to the next 10 years from age 18 to age 28 LeBron James was the greatest athlete in the sport and not volatile at all except in a good way if you're staring at a basketball court watching stuff move he's actually making everything happen he's the volatile game maker maker that's destroying everybody but
• 01:30 - 02:00 it's not a bad volatility you know you want to get rid of volatility put a lump of rocks on the basketball court you have no volatility so I'm not terribly concerned with the volatility I think there'll be accelerations and pullbacks but the institutions are cering it on both sides the capital is not consumer leverage Capital day Traders the capital right now is insurance companies big public companies we're coming in to buy it forever like ask me when I'm going to sell it never I'm not going to sell it
• 02:00 - 02:30 ever and so the narrative has rotated long-term institutional Deep Pockets and the asset class is matured and of course the law of large numbers say a trillion dollar entity has more nura to it than a hundred billion dollar entity and what do I expect to happen I expect it will grow aggressively toward gold and it will flip gold and then it will demonetize gold and subsume gold and probably it'll be first 10 trillion and
• 02:30 - 03:00 gold is 10 trillion then it'll be 20 trillion and gold will be 5 trillion or four and gold will eventually become an ornamental medal Bitcoin is going to suck the monetary energy off of negative yielding bonds I ran a survey on my Twitter I got 65,000 responses two days ago I asked people where did the money come from used to buy Bitcoin 49% is stocks 20% is gold 10% is bonds 19% is property basically stocks are going going to be negative yielding if your
• 03:00 - 03:30 value stocks because they can't keep up with the rate of monetary expansion everybody knows bonds are destroyed ra Delo just told the world they're all negative yielding by the way he thinks they're negative yielding versus CPI the real point is they're negative yielding versus the cost of capital or the rate of the monetary Supply expansion which is like 15 to 25% a year they're screaming value destroyers so I think that Bitcoin goes to 10 trillion and
• 03:30 - 04:00 it's it goes as fast as it can and then it grows 50 60% a year toward 100 trillion and it slows down from 200 to 150 to 100 to 80 to 60 to 40 you know you saw Google and Amazon growing at 20% a year off of large numbers consistently for the past five years I think when it gets that big it'll be growing 20% a year and eventually it'll subsume the total addressable market for treasury assets and then it will growing at an
• 04:00 - 04:30 organic rate 5 6 7% a fair cost of capital I think the single most important thing you can do is estimate the annual rate of money supply expansion every year for the next eight years and if you think of that's 15% going to 10 going to five going to two going to zero then you're going to be more you're going to stick toward a traditional portfolio but if you think that money supply expansion is going to be 15% consistent then you got to go to scarce assets bottom line is I don't think bonds are real estate work as a
• 04:30 - 05:00 store of value in a monetary inflation environment because they're both one them's a coupon and the other one's pegged to CPI or CA at CPI I think that value stocks are you know you've basically got to invest in an index of equities that are going to grow or you got to invest in scarce assets and uh if the growth rate of the money supply is 15% you better find a portfolio of equity that's going to grow 15% or better if you're going to store value in
• 05:00 - 05:30 it otherwise I would uh invest in Trophy assets buy your house on the beach that you want to live in the rest of your life because that'll always be valuable to you with leverage I think you buy scarce digital probably like Bitcoin you buy things that are Absolut buy something that a rich person is going to want to buy from you in a decade ask yourself that question I'm not buying your New York municipal bonds yielding 2% in a decade and you're going to get a negative 15% real yield so I would think
• 05:30 - 06:00 in terms of that trophies equities and then scarce assets and obviously I'm biased I think Bitcoin is the best property in the world figure out what your risk tolerance is for it buy that much of it and then diversify the rest across other things you know and you're comfortable with Bitcoin is the world's best treasury asset it's like 100x bigger than the next thing the risk is a thousand times less than the next thing the addressable Market is 100 times bigger than it is right now it's its own thing everything else in the crypto
• 06:00 - 06:30 universe is Venture Capital if you have a venture capital portfolio if you have the wherewithal to invest in crypto Ventures and you want to study it well in my opinion they have a 100x less addressable market and they're 100 times more complicated but if you want to do that and you have the capital to do it have at it if what you want to do is just buy a bar of digital gold and wait I mean Bitcoin is better gold than gold on a big Tech Network right you just buy a bunch and you wait like we're not cra CRA the point is it's the world's first
• 06:30 - 07:00 digital treasury asset there's A1 trillion dollar worth of Treasury assets they're are negative yielding debt or zero yielding debt or cash and that's like in essence minus 15% real yield all the bonds are broken all the treasury strategies are broken this is the solution to $400 trillion worth of investors problems they've all got the problem it's the solution to 7.8 billion people's problems they're all generating
• 07:00 - 07:30 salaries in cash which is debasing at 15% a year and it's the most disruptive technology in our lifetime and you know I've been on your show you had me talking to you about eight years ago we're talking about Apple and Amazon if you recall you probably pull the clip I invested $50 million in apple and Amazon nine years ago I made 500 million off of it you know as a 10 bagger not that hard I'm not proud of it all I did was Buy these digital networks when 99% of the
• 07:30 - 08:00 people didn't agree with me when they were Unstoppable and I waited and I swore to myself if I ever saw another one I wouldn't just do it personally I would put my company into it so we ran into the biggest crisis of our career in 2020 I had 500 million in capital I saw digital Network which I think is a hundred times better than Google or Facebook it's Facebook for money when rert Murdoch goes to Facebook he doesn't bring a billion friends he's not paying
• 08:00 - 08:30 $100 million a month to watch Netflix okay when a billionaire shows up to bitcoin they buy a billion dollars of Bitcoin it's a bank in cyberace it's self- monetizing and so I saw that we bought some it's working there's an Institutional rotation all the institutions have the problem they're all buying it that's why it's gone from $400,000 a coin to $60,000 a coin in 12 months and quite frankly I think it's the biggest thing of our lifetime for
• 08:30 - 09:00 example if you'd ask the same question to Jeff Bezos in 2003 and said you know like you just had an 80% loss in Amazon do you ever wish you sold Amazon in the year 2001 yeah you know Jeff beos could have sold Amazon in the year 2000 and avoided a 95% loss do you wish he did that's true but you see how foolish that is right for example Mark Zuckerberg you know could have also sold Facebook just before just after the IPO and avoided a 50% loss you know in fact Jeff Bezos
• 09:00 - 09:30 could have sold Amazon five different times and avoided an 80% loss and if he'd sold at any one of those five times he wouldn't be one of the richest people in the world so I think that trying to time the market is a Trader mentality but if you look at all the richest people in the world they're not Traders I mean Bill Gates Steve Balmer Jeff Bezos Elon Musk Mark Zuckerberg Larry pagee name the person that traded their
• 09:30 - 10:00 way to that situation is you can't really do it like trying to time the market is ridiculous if you look at statistical analysis of Bitcoin or the S&P I think the conclusion generally is that like 80% of your Returns come in like 1% of the days so if you miss the top three days of a year you might lose 80% of your return if you miss the top six days you lose it all so the way this is going to work is it's going to look like you're not
• 10:00 - 10:30 making a lot of money 98% of the time and then you're going to wake up one day and you're going to find out that the Sovereign wealth fund of some Middle Eastern country just bought $10 billion of Bitcoin it's going to double or it's going to triple and then you're going to be kicking yourself and screaming saying oh well I could have bought it at blank and I didn't buy it at blank you'll be angry I think that trading mentality is just really an an awful mentality for
• 10:30 - 11:00 anyone that if you're not running proprietary algorithms on high-speed computers like I get it if you're a high-speed computer Trader and you're like slicing a tenth of a penny a billion times an hour like I get that that kind of trading but but for 98% of the population people don't have any proprietary Edge to trade and so generally they all get beat by the market trading people want to invest in something that they understand that they
• 11:00 - 11:30 can trust so if you're going to be a theme par company that's what you should do if you're going to be a movie company if you're going to be an oil company you should be a pure play and you should focus you know in a laser-like way on that because that allows a rational investor to put you in their portfolio for example maybe you hate Bitcoin if micro strategy has a strategy which is we're long Bitcoin we're leverage long Bitcoin
• 11:30 - 12:00 well then that's good right because now you can short us it's not a bad thing for people to short your stock because if they short your stock eventually they're going to have to cover on the other hand maybe they like Bitcoin but they think it's 99% likely to fail think about it you have a100 million so you put 1% of your portfolio in it and you want to find someone that actually is pure long Bitcoin you see so if we're transparent and predictable then we
• 12:00 - 12:30 allow a rational investor to allocate their portfolio rationally and they just don't want us to be unpredictable what happens if we become unpredictable if I'm predictable you might meet with me understand what I'm going to do and say I wanted to put 5% of my portfolio into Bitcoin and you might actually invest $5 million after a 1hour meeting right but if you met with me and I said I'm a genius and I can trade everything and I when to sell and
• 12:30 - 13:00 I know when to buy and I'm going to time the market and I have all these algorithms you're like well maybe you do maybe you don't but 95% of the time those things don't work and the point is I have just you know if you're the investor you want to hedge the risk you don't want the management team to hedge the risk I'm a black box so after you meet with someone that says they've got some wacky complicated trading algorithm instead of actually investing $5 million you invest zero and you study it for 500 hours and so let me put it a different
• 13:00 - 13:30 way you could probably raise a billion dollars in one day if you're predictable even from people that don't even like Bitcoin whereas if you're unpredictable you could work for a thousand days and raise nothing the world wants certainty it wants Clarity it wants conviction and it wants you to execute with Focus so it happens that we believe in Bitcoin but there are plenty of people that trade our stock you could buy our stock and go long our stock and
• 13:30 - 14:00 short Bitcoin you see this crash is going to cause a lot of clarity to form there first the communi is getting educated right I bet you everybody in the crypto Community today knows the difference between a dollar in the bank and us and I bet you they have an intelligent conversation about the difference between Circle and us and the business model of the two and we saw last week uh tether had to redeem billions and billions of dollars of tether and they could right so they could but if you had
• 14:00 - 14:30 actually tried to redeem $7 billion of us in a couple of days while people tried to do that and they couldn't so I think the industry got educated but also I think that there's a lot of people that would like to issue stable coins like Caitlyn Long's bank would like to issue stable coins and if you look at the banks like silvergate and signature their FDIC insured Banks but they can't issue stable coins so and if you look at JP Morgan and Goldman sax and C group
• 14:30 - 15:00 they can't issue stable coin now if you roll the clock back 6 months the president's working group put out a memo on stable coins and when they put out the memo they said we'd like for FDIC institutions to issue stable coin now putting aside whether you agree with that or not there's been a regulatory deadlock on Capitol Hill I think that most regulation is going to create turmoil for the 19,500 cryptos there's G to be a ShakeOut so regulation generally is good for Bitcoin and it's difficult
• 15:00 - 15:30 for the rest of the cryptos they're on the opposite side but it is possible to construct a very profitable crypto exchange and a very profitable crypto currency a stable coin business and a very profitable set of crypto Securities with regulation it's just that's going to be a lot more work I think that generally just about all regulation that's contemplated anywhere in the western world is going to accelerate mainstream adoption of Bitcoin Bitcoin should get 10x bigger and then 100x bigger and thing holding it back is the
• 15:30 - 16:00 fact that there's no regulatory Clarity in the crypto industry so yeah I'm not really concerned about the regulation