Bitcoin [BTC]: The Final Wave Is Here.

Summary

Highlights

• Bitcoin's bull phase is winding down, but the peak's precise timing remains uncertain. 🕰️
• Checking historical Bitcoin 'seasons' offers insights into current market positions. 🌿
• Current cycle corrections mimic past patterns, hinting at upcoming changes. 🔄
• Market analysis using Elliot waves suggests a wave five extension might occur. 🌊
• Low trade volume during highs suggests caution; market actions may show early reversal signs. ⚠️

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin is nearing the end of its bull cycle; stay alert for signs of the peak. 📈
• Understanding Bitcoin seasons helps predict market phases. 🍂
• Short sharp corrections could signal an upcoming cycle top. 📉
• Volume indicators and sentiment indices are key to assessing market health. 🔍
• Bitcoin's accessibility through ETFs marks it as a mainstream adoption phase. 🌐

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction to the Final Bull Phase The chapter titled 'Introduction to the Final Bull Phase' discusses the approaching end of the final bull phase in the cryptocurrency market. Despite its nearing end, for many, it seems the phase barely began. The chapter delves into the lingering question of how much longer this cycle will last. By examining Bitcoin's market symmetry, some estimates can be made, though no cycle mirrors another completely. The chapter emphasizes creating roadmaps for understanding market direction, which the video aims to provide by exploring both macro and short-term perspectives. A disclaimer is included, noting that the narrator is not a financial adviser, and advises personal research.
• 00:30 - 01:00: Investor Accelerator and Macro Charts Overview In this chapter, the focus is on the importance of having a plan for the end stages of a market cycle and the upcoming bear market. There's an invitation to join the Investor Accelerator for more insights and strategies, with a link provided for further information. The chapter transitions into a detailed analysis of macro charts, starting with Bitcoin's seasonal trends. The speaker aims to clarify that these trends are not related to calendar dates.
• 01:00 - 01:30: Bitcoin Seasons and Market Cycles The chapter discusses the analogy of Bitcoin seasons and market cycles, comparing them to natural seasons. The speaker highlights how Bitcoin follows these seasonal patterns over time. It emphasizes that the ideal time to invest in a market cycle is during its 'springtime.'
• 01:30 - 02:00: Timing and Cycle Peaks in Bitcoin's Market The chapter discusses the seasonal cycles in Bitcoin's market, comparing them to the four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and autumn. Winter represents a period of stagnation where recovery seems unlikely, spring marks a strong recovery phase, and summer is the final bull phase. Historically, Bitcoin cycles have typically peaked during the autumn, signaling the end of the bull run.
• 02:00 - 02:30: Corrections and Market Signals In this chapter titled 'Corrections and Market Signals', the discussion revolves around the seasonal patterns and cycles of Bitcoin, focusing on the timing and maturity of these cycles. The chapter highlights historical peaks during autumn in the Bitcoin market, referencing specific years like 2013. There's an emphasis on the importance of understanding these cycles as the market approaches the end stages of the cycle. The speaker refers to a significant chart that is crucial for analyzing Bitcoin cycles, signaling the importance of market signals and timing in Bitcoin trading and investment strategies.
• 02:30 - 03:00: Elliot Wave Analysis and Market Structure This chapter discusses Elliot Wave Analysis and Bitcoin's market structure. It highlights different cycles of Bitcoin including the Genesis cycle, early adopter cycle, mainstream awareness cycle, and the current mainstream adoption cycle. Each cycle represents a phase in the adoption and market behavior of Bitcoin. The focus is on the mainstream adoption cycle, emphasizing that the presenter has extensively covered Bitcoin's cycles in other discussions, hence a brief overview is provided here.
• 03:00 - 03:30: Market Data and Volume Analysis The chapter titled 'Market Data and Volume Analysis' discusses the ongoing adoption cycle of Bitcoin and the significant progress it has made in terms of accessibility to the general public. The availability of Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) has simplified exposure to Bitcoin for average investors through their regular trading platforms. This has marked a new phase in Bitcoin's adoption cycle. Additionally, the chapter analyzes numerical data from the market, specifically examining the transition from market lows to all-time highs. The current cycle, at 912 days, is compared to previous cycles to gain insight into its progression. The chapter provides valuable analysis of market trends and the implications for future cycles, highlighting the importance of market data and volume analysis in understanding cryptocurrency trends.
• 03:30 - 04:00: Daily and 4-hour Chart Analysis The chapter titled 'Daily and 4-hour Chart Analysis' delves into time analysis and cycle evaluation in financial charts. It mentions specific time points, such as 1143, 068, and 1061, to discuss their relation to cycle peaks. The chapter clarifies that two cycles have been combined for analysis purposes, which is explained in previous videos. Though approaching a cycle peak in timing, the chapter emphasizes that a peak has not yet been reached.
• 04:00 - 04:30: Conclusion and Future Insights The chapter 'Conclusion and Future Insights' delves into the analysis of Bitcoin's market cycle, emphasizing the impressive symmetry across different cycles. It discusses the predictability of corrections within these cycles, which often last one to three months before reaching new all-time highs. The text reflects on past predictions about these cycles, highlighting the consistency of these patterns over time.

Bitcoin [BTC]: The Final Wave Is Here. Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 The final bull phase is fast coming to an end, but for most it barely feels like it has begun. How long the cycle has left is the billiond dollar question. And while nobody knows for sure, we can make some estimates based on Bitcoin's market symmetry. No two cycles are ever identical. But as the long-term viewers of the channel will know, we can put together some road maps to guide us along the way, which is what we'll be doing in this video. We will be diving into the macro and short term so that we can stay one step ahead. Before we do, quick disclaimer that I'm not a financial adviser. Always do your own
• 00:30 - 01:00 due diligence and research and past results are not indicative of future performance. Now, if you don't yet have a plan to take advantage of the end stages of this cycle and the coming bare market, then there's never been a better time to join us in the investor accelerator. I'll leave a link in the description below where you can learn more about us in TIA crypto and what we have to offer. But without further ado, let's just dive on into the video where I will be starting out with the macro charts first and then zooming down into those lower term time frames. First up, we'll take a look at Bitcoin's seasons. Now, let me be very clear. These seasons have nothing to do with the dates of the
• 01:00 - 01:30 season in whichever hemisphere of the world you are in. These are Bitcoin seasons. And I am using the seasons in nature as an analogy for market cycles and market seasons. Now, I first shared this chart back in the winter period for Bitcoin, not knowing what was coming up next. Now, these colors and seasons have not changed since I did share this chart, and you can just see how nicely Bitcoin is conforming to its seasons and what it's typically done in the past. Now, just as a quick refresher on this here, the best time to be buying in any market cycle is in its springtime. It's
• 01:30 - 02:00 when the market is winding up for a big move. That's the time to be making the most of the cycle. Whereas, unfortunately, prior to spring is, of course, winter where everything's freezing over. And when it comes to Bitcoin or financial assets, most people think it's never going to recover. But nevertheless, we've got through the springtime in very strong fashion. We're now still within the summertime, which is the final bull phase. But if we look back to past Bitcoin cycles or Bitcoin seasons, it's in the autumn time that the cycle does top out. And we're
• 02:00 - 02:30 getting very close to this in terms of timing. You can go back and look at the previous Bitcoin seasons where we had the autumn peak. We had an autumn peak and of course back in 2013, we also had an autumn peak. So we are heading into the final end stages of the cycle when it comes to Bitcoin seasons. So make no mistake, we are extremely mature, which is even more obvious when we look at the timing of the Bitcoin cycle. This chart here is probably my favorite chart and the most important chart when it comes to analyzing Bitcoin cycles. Now, if this is brand new to you, all the
• 02:30 - 03:00 numbers on the chart are time frames looking at days from top to bottom and bottom to top. Now, in addition, what I've marked up on this chart are the different cycles for Bitcoin. What I've called them. We have the Bitcoin Genesis cycle being of course Bitcoin's very first cycle, the early adopter cycle, the mainstream awareness cycle, and now we are currently in the mainstream adoption cycle. I've covered this many times on the channel before, so I'm not going to go into too much detail, but just to kind of sum up the cycle we are currently in right now, the mainstream
• 03:00 - 03:30 adoption cycle. I can promise you that almost everyone has heard of Bitcoin. They're aware of it, which is what came the cycle before. But now we have the easiest access ever to Bitcoin with ETFs. Basically anyone can get exposure through their regular trading platform. So it is most certainly the adoption cycle at least as I see it. Now what we can also pull apart from this chart here are the numbers from bottom to top. So this is bare market low measured to the all-time high. We are now 912 days into this cycle. If we look back at what previous cycles had done they all topped
• 03:30 - 04:00 out around,00 days. It was 1143,068 and 1,061. Now, before you tell me that this was a cycle top and I've kind of mashed two cycles together, you can go back and watch my previous videos where I explain what I'm doing with this particular cycle here. But when it comes to time analysis, this is most certainly valid time analysis and we are now getting very close to being within tolerance for a cycle peak in terms of timing. Now, I am not saying we are at a cycle peak right now. Let me be very
• 04:00 - 04:30 clear. I am just looking at time analysis and now we are getting very close to being within tolerance for a cycle peak in terms of time. Bitcoin's market symmetry is actually quite astounding with how similar each cycle has played out. Now, many of you will recall how I've pulled apart the corrections within Bitcoin cycles and how we were very likely going to be getting a correction lasting one to 3 months before breaking back into fresh all-time highs. I've been talking about that for years since around this period here. I shared with you guys how every
• 04:30 - 05:00 single time in Bitcoin cycles, we'd broken into all-time highs. We put in a correction lasting 1 to 3 months and then there was another move higher and this time has been exactly the same. We saw a correction lasting 77 days and here we are now breaking back into fresh cycle highs. What's of most importance now is looking out for short sharp corrections before we get to a final peak. In every single cycle we have seen corrections lasting one week or less which is also coupled with fast acceleration to the north side. Now, it
• 05:00 - 05:30 might be a little bit hard to see, but you can see that previous cycle top, we had two corrections lasting two weeks or less. The cycle before that, we had a number of corrections only lasting 2 to 4 days before getting to the peak. And the cycle before that, we had some sizable corrections which only lasted 1 day. It's a little bit difficult to see on this chart here because we are on the weekly time frame, but you can go back and look for yourself on the BLX chart on the daily time frame to see what I'm talking about when it comes to short sharp corrections into the peak. So this is going to be one of the telltale signs
• 05:30 - 06:00 that we are almost at the cycle top. So stay very close to what those corrections do. I will of course cover them for you on the channel. So stand by for more on this. But if we start seeing short sharp corrections with a lot of volatility, then there's a good chance the cycle peak is only weeks away. Now the good news is if we just continue to march on up in very steady fashion without a lot of volatility, which will be much more clear on the daily and even weekly time frame as well, that would suggest there's still plenty of time to go. So, this analysis helps us on both sides of the market and gives us clues
• 06:00 - 06:30 as to whether we're close to a peak or if there's still more time to go. So, I will have more for you in future videos when it comes to Bitcoin's time analysis. But, it's just lovely to see this play out basically to perfection yet again. And we were well prepared for this years in advance. When it comes to the overall cycles market structure, that's where I come back to Elliot wave. And when it comes to Elliot wave, there are multiple wave counts which can be valid according to Elliot wave rules and the Elliot wave principle. So, I am tracking a couple of different counts here, but as long-term viewers of the channel will know, I have been leaning
• 06:30 - 07:00 on the more bullish count, which is suggesting we'll be seeing a wave five extension. Now, this is the total market cap chart. It's a little bit different to Bitcoins, and I will actually share my Bitcoin Elliot wave count in future videos, but as you will have seen, this count here has been holding us in very goodstead throughout not only the bare market, where we got very close to the bare market bottom, but also the entire bull market so far. So, what we yet to see for the total market cap market structure is a wave 2 correction on our short-term count, which will still be getting this chart here to new all-time highs. And I do believe even when we get
• 07:00 - 07:30 that correction followed by confirmation, which will be a break of wave 1 and holding above that wave 1, this is the time altcoins going to come back alive. So, we have not seen that yet. It's basically just been a fullyfledged Bitcoin cycle with only a few altcoins popping off. So, I am on red alert for something like this to happen, which will be continuing in this macro bull market structure. When it comes to Bitcoin on the weekly time frame, we are just seeing it go from strength to strength. We are now six consecutive weeks up into this move. And what we really would like to see here for a stronger market is a correction to
• 07:30 - 08:00 take place of some sort because markets do need corrections to maintain a healthy balanced uptrend. Now, it doesn't mean we have to see a correction starting right now or anything like that, but ideally, we don't extend too far and we don't see too much acceleration because it would just get Bitcoin into some overbought territory and when the market does move into an overbought picture, it can snap back relatively easily. But for now, we are just seeing a relatively balanced uptrend. And in terms of support zones on the underside, the most important level does remain to be around that $92,000. So, price is a long way away from there right now, which is why we
• 08:00 - 08:30 come down to some lower-term time frames to give us a lead on the bigger picture. So, we will be taking a look at the daily chart and 4hour time frame as well. But before that, we'll jump over into the market data, which is painting a pretty interesting picture because we are seeing new highs on very low volume and we are still seeing this chart actually drop off, which is not what we want to be seeing. We want to be seeing some higher lows in our daily exchange volume, which would be suggesting liquidity is sticking around cryptocurrency. So, that still does remain to be seen, and it is a slight cause for concern, but we do know that price action is king and at least when
• 08:30 - 09:00 it comes to Bitcoin, we are sitting in price discovery. Our traditional sentiment reading for Bitcoin's fear and greed index is sitting in greed. No surprises there. When it comes to our FOMO finder, we are still seeing a balanced market. So, if we do start to tick up on our FOMO finder and see a consistent period of greed, then look out for a top of some significance to be in because almost always we will see extended periods of orange followed by a large correction and we're not seeing that yet. So, this is going to be one to watch and of course something I'll continue to cover for you guys on the channel. When it comes to our daily exchange volume, we are ticking up very
• 09:00 - 09:30 healthily at $451 billion, up by about 54%. So, I do suspect if we can see some healthy levels of volume stick around in the next 48 to 72 hours, that will be enough to get this chart here also ticking back up. When it comes to our long short ratio, we're still not seeing any big imbalances. So, that's a very positive sign for the uptrend. When we start to see the long side get favored by a differential of around 3% or more, that can lead to fast snapback south and also vice versa in a downtrend. But we are of course not in a downtrend right now. Our
• 09:30 - 10:00 24-hour liquidations are sitting at about $45 million. So also nothing too extreme, especially with the high prices. If we start to see this tick up to closer to $1 billion, then look out for a top to not be too far away or at least the trend to slow down considerably. We have seen some more consistent Bitcoin spot ETF buying which you can see on the right hand column here to do with our inflows but still no major spikes in the grand scheme of things. If we do start to see a huge green bar which is indicative of a lot of retail buying and just I guess spot
• 10:00 - 10:30 ETF buying in general that would be suggesting that people are fomoing into the market and getting greedy and that would also be indicative of a potential top or a slowdown in the trend. So we are not getting any warning signs in our data here. So it's very positive for the current uptrend we're seeing. The only slight cause for concern at the moment is our volume chart, but there's a lag on this one here, and we may very well still see this tick back up to print a higher low. But that's it for the market data. Let's now jump over into the chart. Starting with the daily time frame, where we had that nice clean break into all-time highs and even a close above that previous top. The
• 10:30 - 11:00 breakout was on some pretty significant volume, almost getting into abnormal territory, and we don't like seeing abnormal moves because that also can lead to a fast snap back south. But in terms of support and resistance and breakout zones and all the rest of it, we are sitting in that new all-time high territory. And many of you will recall that I was talking about this 107 level at length. And when we could see a breakout above that, I was actually anticipating new all-time highs as opposed to a fake out. And here we are. So, we're seeing that nice price action take place. There's really not too much more to add here on the daily chart because the bulls just keep control. But
• 11:00 - 11:30 if we do happen to see a break down now beneath that breakout zone and also dropping back beneath this trend line I started sharing with you guys a couple of days ago that would be suggesting a fake out on our hands but failure to see that take place. We just have to anticipate the trend is going to continue up on the 4hour chart. I have been tracking a shorterterm Elliot wave count which is suggesting we're within the later stages of a wave five. But I do not use this to pinpoint tops and bottoms. It's about looking at market structure and the most important thing are the trends. And while the trends are up, you just have to anticipate they're going to continue until it does change
• 11:30 - 12:00 state. First from green to blank and then red. And this is using the TIA GAN swing pro. There is a link for it in the description below. But it's mathematically impossible for us to see lower prices while this is flashing green. So just to keep it really simple now, which is important to do in steady uptrends, just look out for the trends to continue until we break back beneath breakout zones followed by closed and lower highs. that will be the earliest lead that the higher time frame trend is going to be taking a breather and potentially reversing. But until that comes about, you just have to keep going with the trends because the trend is
• 12:00 - 12:30 your friend until the end when it bends and it's certainly not bending at the moment. Now, if you would like to take advantage of the trends both up and down, just a quick reminder to take a look at the link in the description below where you can learn more about us in TIA crypto. I'll have more for you in future videos where we analyze the charts, trends, data, time frames, and market cycles. But that's all I've got for you in today's market update. wishing you more health, wealth, and happiness. And until next time, I'll catch you then.