Change and climate change: New flagship lecture from Lord Browne of Madingley FREng FRS

Summary

Highlights

• Lord Browne emphasizes the urgent reality of climate change and the critical role of engineering in finding solutions. ✨
• Despite progress, fossil fuel use remains high, accounting for over 80% of energy demands. ⛽
• The importance of deploying current technologies while investing in new innovations is highlighted. 🌐
• Browne stresses the need for resilience in the face of extreme weather events and global cooperation. 🌪️
• Optimism is key; there is potential for significant progress through engineering and innovation. 🌟

Key Takeaways

• Climate change is an undeniable reality, requiring immediate attention and action. 🌍
• The role of engineering is vital in finding practical solutions to mitigate climate change. 🔧
• There are four key imperatives: technology deployment, innovation investment, resilience building, and addressing human impacts. 🚀
• Despite challenges, progress in renewable energy is promising, but reliance on fossil fuels remains high. 🌞
• Lord Browne's optimism is rooted in the belief that innovation and engineering can turn the tide on climate change. 🌈

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction by John Lazar, President of the Royal Academy of Engineering John Lazar, the President of the Royal Academy of Engineering, welcomes guests, fellows, and friends to an important evening event. He acknowledges both attendees present at Prince Philip House and those online. He then begins with several housekeeping announcements, indicating no scheduled fire drills, suggesting a preparation for the event to proceed smoothly.
• 00:07 - 00:14: Video Title The chapter provides instructions to the audience at an Academy event. Attendees are advised to follow staff directions in case of an emergency exit and ensure their mobile phones are on silent during the lecture and Q&A session. They are encouraged to engage by scanning a QR code to post questions on Slido for the Q&A session and share their experience on social media using the event's hashtags.
• 00:15 - 00:59: Transcript The chapter 'Transcript' discusses the role of engineering in developing sustainable solutions to global and national challenges. It highlights the contributions of experts in providing advice to government on future energy policy and climate change responses, utilizing extensive engineering expertise.
• 00:01 - 00:02: Housekeeping and Event Context The chapter introduces Lord Brown of Madingley, emphasizing his significant contributions to the energy sector and long-term sustainability. He is noted for challenging traditional thinking and advocating for advancements beyond fossil fuels as a leading industrialist and former CEO of a major energy company.
• 00:03 - 00:05: Introduction to Lord Browne The chapter introduces Lord Browne's tenure as the president of the Academy from 2006 to 2011, highlighting his role in transforming it from a reputable national institution to a globally-focused, goal-oriented organization. His efforts in expanding international outreach and establishing a new home at Prince Philip House are also noted.
• 00:06 - 00:08: Lord Browne's Lecture Introduction The chapter introduces Lord Browne's lecture, focusing on promoting excellence in engineering through the Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering. The prize aims to inspire young individuals to consider engineering careers and encourages engineers to challenge the limits of innovation. During a time of global uncertainty and change, Lord Browne's lecture forms part of a worldwide tour sharing fresh perspectives on engineering's role and potential.
• 00:09 - 00:12: Facts about Climate Change In this chapter titled "Facts about Climate Change," Lord Brown delivers a lecture at the Royal Academy of Engineering, a place he refers to as one of his homes. The lecture sets the stage by emphasizing the significance of the venue and hints at the insights that will be shared regarding climate change.
• 00:13 - 00:15: Climate Change Mitigation Progress The chapter titled 'Climate Change Mitigation Progress' highlights the use of facts and practical solutions over slogans and rhetoric in addressing climate change. It underscores the role of engineering and commerce in finding realistic solutions by starting from reality rather than ideology or politics.
• 00:16 - 00:20: Long-term Sustainability and Engineering The chapter titled 'Long-term Sustainability and Engineering' emphasizes the crucial role of society in addressing climate change. It begins by reaffirming the reality of climate change, highlighting its current occurrence and impacts. It attributes climate change to greenhouse gases resulting from human activities, and warns of the ongoing rise in emissions leading to gradual increases in environmental and climatic challenges.
• 00:21 - 00:24: Call to Action and Engineering's Role This chapter discusses the urgent calls for action in the face of climate change, highlighting the critical role engineering plays in addressing related challenges. It underscores the unpredictability yet undeniable escalation of extreme weather events and their serious impacts on global temperatures, water supplies, health, disease spread, and food security.
• 00:25 - 00:59: Q&A Session with Lord Browne The chapter titled 'Q&A Session with Lord Browne' discusses the ongoing issue of climate change, emphasizing that despite being 40 years since the first IPCC report, progress in addressing climate change remains insufficient. Although there has been an increase in low-carbon energy supplies, such as wind and solar, the use of fossil fuels has not decreased. The chapter suggests that the situation may continue to worsen according to serious studies.

Change and climate change: New flagship lecture from Lord Browne of Madingley FREng FRS Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 good evening everybody uh for those of you who don't know me uh I'm John Lazar I'm president of the Royal Academy of engineering and I want to welcome guests fellows and friends to our very important evening um this uh tonight and there quite a few people online so welcome to them as well before we begin I'd like to go through a few housekeeping notices for the audience here with us at Prince Philip house we haven't been informed of any scheduled F drills that they along goes please
• 00:30 - 01:00 follow Academy staf who will direct you to the nearest exit um as for other surprise noises please make sure your mobile phones are on silent for the duration of the lecture and the Q&A session but um please feel free to scan the QR code to post questions on slido for the Q&A session and to post about the event on social media using the hashtags on the scen on the screen many of you will that the academy
• 01:00 - 01:30 has played a leading role in the debate about to how to engineer Sustainable Solutions to the challenges faced by Humanity both in a national and a global context indeed I'm looking around the room many of you have been deeply involved in this work we provided advice to government over several decades on Future Energy policy and how to respond to climate change drawing on the deep and very broad engineering expertise in
• 01:30 - 02:00 our fellowship few people have done more to challenge and Advance the professions thinking on long-term sustainability than our speaker this evening Lord Brown of madingley as a leading industrialist and CEO of the world's first super major Energy company he was way ahead of his time in urging the energy sector to develop Technologies for a future Beyond fossil fuels
• 02:00 - 02:30 as president of our Academy from 26 20 2006 to 2011 he oversaw a step change in achievement and in ambition from a respected National Academy to a goal orientated organization with a global vision and as we were just talking also a new home here at Prince Philip house he went on to expand this International Outreach as the founding
• 02:30 - 03:00 chair of the Queen Elizabeth prize for engineering the KE prize aims to promote excellence in engineering inspiring young minds to consider engineering as a career choice and encouraging Engineers to push the boundaries of what is possible we are going to explore some of those boundaries tonight at what seems like a time of great uncertainty and change for the world we are delighted that Lord Brown has made the academy one of his stops on a worldwide lecture T taking a fresh
• 03:00 - 03:30 look at climate change Lord Brown please um join us to deliver your lecture hello ladies and gentlemen good evening uh it really is a very great pleasure to be back here uh at um dare I say one of my homes uh which is uh the Royal Academy of engineering it really is the most appropriate place that I can
• 03:30 - 04:00 think of uh to discuss the unresolved challenge of climate change today it's appropriate because uh this organization is a fellowship of people who work to solve problems using facts not slogans not rhetoric because engineering is grounded not in ideology or politics but in practicality and commerce as engineer is we start from reality and look for
• 04:00 - 04:30 practical answers and that's our role in society and it's a crucial role so let me start if I may with the facts about climate change climate change is real and it is happening now the impact of a changing climate caused by greenhouse gases from human activity is not a hoax the level of emissions continues to rise and the result is a gradual increase in
• 04:30 - 05:00 global temperatures and a growing incidence of extreme weather events we can't predict what those events will bring or where they'll occur but the evidence around their frequency and seriousness is inescapable the impact of climate change is evident uh on Water Supplies Health the spread of diseases and disrupted fuel food
• 05:00 - 05:30 supplies all serious studies suggest that this situation is likely to get worse we're now 40 years on from the first ipcc report and the progress in dealing with climate change on the basis of that report is inadequate we have added more low carbon energy supplies from wind and solar but we haven't yet reduced the use of fossil
• 05:30 - 06:00 fuels across the world we use 50% more oil gas and coal than we did 40 years ago fossil fuels still meet more than 80% of final energy demand and Renewables only meet just over 4% as a result we're passing the 1 and 1/2 Dee Target and heading steadily towards something like 3°
• 06:00 - 06:30 we don't know whether there are tipping points at which point climate disruption will become an accelerating and irreversible process but we certainly can't rule that out it would be a foolish experiment to wait to find out the search for a globally agreed process to manage the climate through the UN FC and other organizations has failed and it's failed at many private
• 06:30 - 07:00 sector corporations who are now walking away from their unrealistic goals public and political attention has moved away away from climate change to new issues of concern the cost of living and broken public finances more significantly it now seems that there's a fundamental reshaping of the pattern of international relations that we've relied upon through throughout my entire lifetime the risks
• 07:00 - 07:30 of War will draw strained public finances into defense that shift of attention is not surprising what has happened in the last few weeks represents a wrenching change in geopolitics nationalism is the predominant ideology of the moment international relations are tense dominated by a cloud of fear about what could happen happen next facts matter
• 07:30 - 08:00 less less than assertions of strength and will we could devote a long discussion to the causes of what has happened but the simple reality is that the prospect of a global deal on climate change with a necessary ambition is now an extremely remote possibility but of course climate change continues completely oblivious to changes in politic iCal Direction and
• 08:00 - 08:30 oblivious to National borders the risks are all too easily ignored or left for another day ignorant ignored but ever present ask the people of Los Angeles or the victims of the floods in Germany or Pakistan these are the facts but they are not and must not become a council of Despair fatalism is the real enemy the
• 08:30 - 09:00 countervailing fact is that we're making some serious progress towards mitigating climate change over the last decade we've seen a dramatic growth in the use of Renewables as sources of electricity driven by a very sharp fall in costs across the world wind and solar are becoming the first choice for New Power Generation more commercially competitive and deliverable than than all other
• 09:00 - 09:30 available sources of energy including natural gas we are using energy more efficiently the correlation between growth in GDP and growth in demand has radically altered it used to be 1: one now energy Demand only Grows by 7 for every 1% increase in GDP we've begun to develop more efficient ways of producing using oil
• 09:30 - 10:00 and gas thereby significantly reducing the greenhouse gases related to their production including the powerful greenhouse gas methane this achievement is attributable to the larger oil and gas companies so often painted as villains we've begun to apply commercially viable ways to reduce greenhouse gases when we use energy in home heating steel and cement production transportation and many other sectors
• 10:00 - 10:30 and I believe there's much more awareness of the importance of protecting the environment on which we depend climate change may not be at the top of the news agenda but people are aware of the risks and are looking for constructive Solutions so from these facts some negative some positive we need to find a way forward we can see that the transformation of an energy system in
• 10:30 - 11:00 which hydrocarbons are embedded in this country and around the whole world cannot be delivered overnight or without costs some of the national and corporate targets for achieving Net Zero are not realistic some of the potential Solutions are presently too expensive but to say that we cannot achieve everything is not to say that we can achieve nothing so what can be done
• 11:00 - 11:30 there are four imperatives first we must continue to deploy the many Technologies which are already commercially available for example wind solar nuclear Hydro reuse of materials and systems to improve Energy Efficiency investing in these will make a difference and will slow down any further climate deterioration secondly we need to invest in the next generation
• 11:30 - 12:00 of low carbon Technologies the recurring challenge is to scale them up and to reduce their costs to make the decarbonization of electricity industrial heat systems and Industrial processes practical and affordable the to-do list is long reduce the costs of ccs and CDR develop long duration energy storage make lower cost nuclear a real
• 12:00 - 12:30 proposition and develop applications of AI which could radically improve the efficiency of energy cities and land use systems we need to develop processes that will speed up Nature's natural way of absorbing carbon in oceans and plants and we need to find new enzymes that could make fuels from plant matter
• 12:30 - 13:00 we're clearly not investing enough in this country or globally and the money we are investing is probably too scattered creating a host of fragmented projects which don't offer material Solutions energy research funding needs to be focused behind a small number of core objectives and of course we should do that through cooperation I think the phrase of the moment is a coalition of the
• 13:00 - 13:30 willing at home we must recognize that the UK government can't fund everything covid fundamentally damaged the public finances and there are clearly both multiple legitimate demands for public spending including defense and unavoidable limits on borrowing that makes the role of the private sector private corporations crucial they clearly need incentives which which one way or another value the
• 13:30 - 14:00 greenhouse gases avoided for example with carbon credits or penalties on methane emissions to generate appropriate Returns the energy companies must be at the heart of that the world will need oil and gas for some time to come the oil and gas companies should focus on things that they can do now capturing all methane leaks and implementing geologic carbon capture and storage but
• 14:00 - 14:30 I believe that there is also scope for the development quite separately of a distinct lowc carbon business which looks to the Future a new super major which is beyond petroleum those are two different growth and return propositions which will attract two different sets of investors it would be great to see such a low carbon business developed here in the UK pulling together and focusing
• 14:30 - 15:00 what is happening working with governments to undertake focused research and build low carbon companies which can serve the world and the transformation in global politics makes it even more important that we do take a lead here in the UK I was in the US a few weeks ago low carbon activity is being cut back funding is being reduced I find that regrettable but I
• 15:00 - 15:30 also find it the strongest possible reason for us in the UK in our universities and in the corporate sector to step up the work which needs to be done the opportunity for Global Leadership in this area is ours to seize the third imperative is to build resilience we've not solved climate change and we don't know what will happen next extreme weather can destroy
• 15:30 - 16:00 whole communities we now have available systems that use both physical models and AI to predict local occurrences of wildfires and floods and to lay out actions to mitigate the consequent damage these provide essential protection in some the UN in some US states uh of the electric grid we must ensure that this and other infrastructure is appropriately prepared
• 16:00 - 16:30 against the risks of serious disruption in addition we must examine and develop the options which come under the broad Banner of geoengineering such as solar radiation management numerous Technologies are being promoted and they'll need to be tested to confirm their safety and Effectiveness and to manage their impact and that will particularly apply to the use of fine particles or aerosols in the atmosphere the key to both these
• 16:30 - 17:00 imperatives is targeted investment neither can be regarded as commercial or cost-free but the investment should be seen as an essential insurance policy fourthly I believe we must never forget the human impact of climate change that will affect everyone rich or poor north or south and the most Vivid example of it is the
• 17:00 - 17:30 acceleration of human migration if temperatures rise and Water Supplies fall large parts of the world will become uninhabitable as the latest studies show average temperature increases are not uniform across the world the greatest impact is likely to be felt in the band of countries just north of the equator if areas are un inhabitable if
• 17:30 - 18:00 even basic agriculture is impossible people will leave if that happens the flow of people from areas such as North Africa will outstrip anything we have seen so far I vividly remember when in 2010 I'd invited uh the late James Lovelock of the Gaia Theory Fame to talk to a group of eminent Business Leaders
• 18:00 - 18:30 at the end of his talk one man asked about actions to save planet Earth from climate change his answer was very short and very sharp acting will not save the planet the Earth will look after herself the action we need to take is to save humanity and to avoid degrading human life and that answer has shaped my thinking ever
• 18:30 - 19:00 since so four imperatives deployment research resilience and human impact and in each case the work of Engineers is crucial Engineers can turn ideas and aspirations into practical working reality so let's not accept the F fa fashionable fatalistic view often based on ignorance about the realities of in action that the climate agenda is
• 19:00 - 19:30 dead we're probably at least 25 years behind where we should be but we've begun to see some genuine possibilities for constructive progress rather than being fatalistic we should deploy the Technologies which are already available and develop the next generation of solutions which are within reach those steps depend on engineers because no one else can deliver the
• 19:30 - 20:00 answers not politicians not commentators not protesters I can think of a time I cannot think of a time when the work of Engineers has been more important so ladies and gentlemen I was actually going to stop the talk just here but I wanted to add something if I may about my own beliefs about our responsibility to humanity I've worked uh to mitigate climate
• 20:00 - 20:30 change for nearly 30 years over that time the politics have altered dramatically but my own principles values and convictions have remained constant Beyond petroleum which was the strap line we used it for BP back in the 1990s wasn't an accidental phrase and it wasn't a PR slogan it expressed a long-term View the change is actually essential a necessary
• 20:30 - 21:00 change spelt out by the ipcc and in the groundbreaking Stone report that change has begun too slowly and too often without caring enough about people and without carrying them along with the change that change must continue and must now accelerate because the the alternative is to give in ignorance and
• 21:00 - 21:30 to abandon our responsibility to Future generations to humanity the world faces many challenges but climate change is probably the most fundamental of all this is the clear and present danger of our times it's crucial to explain what's happening the risks entailed and the potential practical Solutions and I'm committed to doing that and that's why I'm in the process
• 21:30 - 22:00 of establishing with Lord Nick Stern a new group of policy experts economists engineers and scientists to ensure that the arguments are made and repeated again and again and the cause is not lost in the noise and confusion of the moment there is so much we can do simultaneously to cut emissions build resilience and make our world much healthier and safer by investing to
• 22:00 - 22:30 create new a new prosperity for ourselves and those who follow I'm delighted to have found great support for the idea from a group of people who share my fundamental belief that we can't be the generation which have given up the future thank you well thank thank you so much Lord Brown for what I'm sure all of those
• 22:30 - 23:00 listening will agree was a very stimulating and if you excuse upon upon energizing lecture um I am for those who don't know me hi Alon Sim I'm the CEO here at the Royal Academy of engineering and the Queen Elizabeth prize for engineering foundation and it's my pleasure to be uh hosting the discussion session so I know that you have all now uh been informed that we are taking questions through slido please do add your questions at any time and use the up function to let us know which
• 23:00 - 23:30 questions you're most interested in hearing the answer to but I'm going to kick things off with a couple of questions of my own Lord Brown the first question is I think it was 2006 wasn't it that you started here as president at the Academy and already at that time you were very active in championing uh awareness of climate change so we're nearly 20 years on from that and I'm interested to know whether we are further ahead further behind or about
• 23:30 - 24:00 where you would have predicted we might be at this point so I I I said in my talk that I think we're about 25 years behind where we should be roughly if you look at where uh things were lined out uh in uh you know the Rio meeting in the mid90s uh to today it's very clear that a lot of slippage but interestingly I I kind of went back to the year 2000 when I I was talking a lot about this when I
• 24:00 - 24:30 was running BP the uh at that time you couldn't uh ring someone up and say could I build a solar farm or could I build a wind farm actually it was not possible uh the stuff didn't exist and and actually BP to its Eternal Credit in this way uh rather than realizing you can't get solar panels decide to build solar panels themselves which is not what oil and gas company should be doing uh but
• 24:30 - 25:00 nonetheless it was a brave experiment so uh it lot of things has therefore changed I think uh what is very exciting is the number of people of great Merit who've come into the activity of doing something to change the way in which industrial processes business processes and energy uh uh work in the world to
• 25:00 - 25:30 make them make make sure that we can reduce greenhouse gases so all of that is I think a big change what hasn't changed is the up and down nature of the commitment of the public interest um to this activity it goes up and comes down I've been through plenty of waves of this plenty of waves uh in the last 30 years well I'm pretty sure someone's going to ask ask us a question about that so I I'll park that one for a
• 25:30 - 26:00 minute but actually maybe building out from there my my second question before I get onto the um slideer questions which I can see are coming through thick and fast now um is about optimism so I think your talk was a welcome injection of optimism at a time when the world is quite confusing and as you pointed out some of us perhaps have succumbed to the dangers of fatalism and I'm interested as to what fuels your optimism and whether you think optimism is important for tackling climate change
• 26:00 - 26:30 well I suppose part of it's my fundamental natural makeup uh which almost certainly I credit to my mother who having amazingly survived the hoc course and never look back but only looks forward and I think that's a very important point I I've been through a couple of changes myself uh one I guess is realizing that energy isn't just a about oil and gas it's about everything
• 26:30 - 27:00 and when I started talking about that I would say with the single exception of one other well-known company located in London in the oil and gas business uh it um the the criticism was gigantic and and that was no good and you know I I came out as gay late in my life and and and I I thought that was the end of the world and I realized very very quickly no it's not there's always
• 27:00 - 27:30 a great new chapter of things because the human condition is to build for the future it's just there it just needs to be led in the right direction otherwise people look at their shoes and say gosh what am I going to do next what next but actually there's tons to do and of course uh things that you do don't necessarily have to be applied immediately and maybe the missing ingredient to get things applied is some
• 27:30 - 28:00 political action that's missing today but why not get ready for tomorrow because sure as anything happens there will be a wave it'll be a change there'll be something that happens that makes what you do highly relevant for the future and if you and and something also that we can't tell happens I always remind myself that in science and engineering uh the unexpected is the normal you know there are things that happen
• 28:00 - 28:30 outside that we can't possibly uh understand uh and you see every day little things like uh not so little uh a change in the way we want to use AI models uh smaller models less energy uh absorbing very different ways of doing it deep seek came along uh and everyone was shocked now of course they're going to be lots of deep seeks and better deep seeks uh and our view of what sort of
• 28:30 - 29:00 energy balance we need to drive data centers will continuously change and you know that because there's a an a big if if I look at this very simply I say that when there's such a big gap between what you need and what you've got to supply and demand something happens to bring them together it just always happens it may not happen immediately and so
• 29:00 - 29:30 that but it happens sometime that's why I'm an optimist what a wonderful answer uh ranging from the personal to to the global in scale and probably what we all needed on a day when some of us are grappling with the news um I'm going to move on to audience questions there's some great questions coming in and I'm I'm taking my steer from the ones which are being upvoted uh as being the ones that are most interesting to the audience at large so um first question is from azim how can we make the economics of climate change more compelling I firmly believe that without Financial incentives businesses will not
• 29:30 - 30:00 be motivated to take action well you're partly right I mean industry needs if if things aren't economic it need they need some help to make them work but if things are economic then industry doesn't hold back yeah there's either someone who's going to do it or someone's going to create something uh that uh will use whatever we find so in in my book I think the single most
• 30:00 - 30:30 important thing we have to do is to work on processes that reduce cost we have to do that it it this is no exception this is like any other piece of uh Innovation and business we have to reduce costs so there are plenty of things we can do the use of energy around the world is remains very inefficient uh and I've found in my and experience plenty of businesses to go
• 30:30 - 31:00 and invest in and change and grow that simply improve efficiency think about it as productivity and productivity reduces greenhouse gas emissions like one one thing follows the other so this can be done and there's plenty to do the SEC you just got to find it and sometimes it's just looking at a business that's working today and saying actually my view of it is different I can look at it
• 31:00 - 31:30 differently and I can make it work much more efficiently secondly we uh as a human beings we're not very good at conserving materials you know we we tend to use things and throw them away so there are some things that are too valuable to throw away um I picked an obvious example tires I think everybody knows that there's a mountain of used tires
• 31:30 - 32:00 that's growing every day and it grows partly because uh e electric vehicles uh have higher acceleration and they when the rubber hits the road it leaves the rubber on the road so the question is what to do and the answer has often been put them in a landfill or burn them neither of these is appropriate for for for the environment but you can actually
• 32:00 - 32:30 reprocess them and with the right type of IP you can create things that definitely avoid a large amount of carbon and produce wonderful things like the flooring of great baseball courts or huge uh stadiums and I'm talking directly about what a business that I have does uh so it's very clear you can do it um so I think you know that's what
• 32:30 - 33:00 I call Effectiveness the other thing is I I mentioned it in my talk if you can stop some things happening and you can do it for with with profit for somebody then it's really good for the environment one of which might be how do you stop a wildfire happening how do you stop a wildfire happening and it's quite by analyzing what actually starts a wildfire and then looking at them all over the world and then trying to
• 33:00 - 33:30 understand what it is we need what data we need to work out when a wildfire happens it's amazing what you can do nowadays with these are definitely uh inference models in AI based on a lot of data and some physical modeling uh that allows you to work out when a WiFi could happen and then taking PR of steps to stop it so if imagine applying that to all over the world that that would be
• 33:30 - 34:00 marvelous you won't stop them all uh but you can stop an awful lot because there's a pattern of activity some great examples there I'm going to move us on to the next question uh Jackie has asked which I'm sure is on many people's minds following the recent adjustment of many oil and gas major strategies some say that oil and gas companies have lost their credibility in terms of their role in making progress towards the energy transition what's your perspective on this so I I
• 34:00 - 34:30 think i' I'd like to uh think about it slightly differently uh it would be great if every company did what they could to reduce greenhouse gases in a rational way with a great Target that they could actually meet not many companies can get to that point and when you look at what companies have been saying around the world uh a lot of them can't do what they say they're going to do that's not true everywhere and some very great companies are doing just
• 34:30 - 35:00 exactly what they said they're going to do and it tends to be the larger companies well the smaller companies that are actually doing sort of getting to Target so oil and gas companies so oil and gas companies are by Nature uh producers of oil and gas and sales fed toy but it's sort of true uh it's a bit like you know a a a company that uh makes nails or screws is a company that
• 35:00 - 35:30 makes nails or screws and it should do it better and better every day so oring gas companies will continue to produce oing gas and we will consume it until we find other ways of powering the world uh and and I mean now a global problem but oil and gas companies if they're performing very well in their base business are permitted by investors to
• 35:30 - 36:00 diversify a bit or a lot but some experiment to see what you can do and see if you can provide something that maybe someone else can take on for the future the moment your base business is imperiled all all bets are off uh and and it's true about almost any company that wants to diversify uh and and diversifying out of oil and gas into different forms of
• 36:00 - 36:30 energy notably electricity is really a diversification and it takes a lot of new skills a new consistency and that business generally has lower returns sometimes lower risk not always uh than oil and gas and so difficult to fit two things into one vehicle I'm afraid I years ago I was asked by the Ft when I thought I
• 36:30 - 37:00 summarized as saying either um non fossil fuel parts of oil and gas companies will succeed in which case they should be spun off or they will fail in which case they should be closed down uh but they can't really stay where they are and I think that's what we're seeing at the moment thank you it's an interesting perspective and maybe just um slightly different angle looking at what's happening in the US where clearly
• 37:00 - 37:30 there's a wholesale shift going on in terms of uh the targets and narrative that companies are perhaps able to use in relation to climate do you see a fundamental shift in their strategy on depending that or do you think it's more about the presentational dimension so first I think in the oil and gas companies I think there really is a big difference between big companies and small companies small companies have very few degrees of freedom big companies tend to to be represented around the world so there I like I'd
• 37:30 - 38:00 like to say to my American friends that you know when I was working in the US everyone referred to the US and then the rest of the world today I think we should think about as most of the world and the US there's a there's a quite a big difference which has happened here so I think a lot of people say well we're over the world I I think the large companies as far as I can tell in the oil and gas business are doing exactly what they said they were going to do and they're carrying on and they're doing
• 38:00 - 38:30 things like how do you cut cut down the emissions of methane it's one of the most powerful levers people could pull and still continuing to work on what a very very expensive um processes to store carbon dioxide through geologic storage and it's another story I think there'll be other techniques to do that but I think the other company I think are you know very sensitive to their
• 38:30 - 39:00 customer base people want people people want companies to be responsible they want them to be in tune with nature they don't want to pay for it but they do want them to be uh doing just that so every company is trying to figure out how to do that and do it at a lower cost so that it doesn't actually increase the cost of goods to the uh to the consumer and I I think that is very possible
• 39:00 - 39:30 thank you I'm going to move the focus now to sentiment again there's a question from Nick here uh that's talking about the sense of um overwhelm that young people can feel and the fact that young people may have a sort of emotional desire to make a contribution to reduce climate change but won't necessarily know where to begin and I suppose I'd add to that this sort of uh you know the the the the tendency for some of the tion around climate change to leave people feeling scared rather
• 39:30 - 40:00 than empowered so what would you like to see in terms of the advice that young people are getting well first I and actually I seen this I I speak to a lot of um Family offices you know these are groups of people who have money from a a family that they have to invest and so they're not uh you know they're not big investment companies like Fidelity and you know LG and people like that welcome and it's quite surprising how uh the level of
• 40:00 - 40:30 understanding of climate change is reasonably superficial MH uh which uh and it can boil down to okay well we can't make one and a half degrees can make three it's going to get hotter uh and either you know we're all going to be fine in the US you know we've got lots of air conditioning um or else uh it's going to happen elsewhere and right now you know it could be banned had and there's no solution in some ways they
• 40:30 - 41:00 look at this and say I think we figure out that we agree with climate change and but we we don't know what to do next so I think breaking it down into bite-size pieces which is let's think about how we can deploy more of what we know Works commercially today and and that will improve secondly deploy people into creating something
• 41:00 - 41:30 for the future creating something of the future it's not as if in the rest of the world uh money from Phil Phil philanthropic organizations and governments has stopped going into universities uh for research quite the reverse there are some exceptions but maybe they'll be worked out eventually so I think secondly there's an area to work there thirdly I think to think about how we
• 41:30 - 42:00 can educate people that can educate other people I think that's really important uh my answer to everyone is try and find something to do something very practical to do I'd say that as an engineer but it certainly does change sentiment if you can actually do something really do something join a business that is recycling something join a business that's improving efficiency uh there's just so much that
• 42:00 - 42:30 could be done so much that could be done very helpful I'm I'm going to now move to a topic which I think is um getting a lot of airtime for good reason which is the interaction between Ai and climate change so the specific question here is what are your thoughts on the energy consumption of training large AI models versus the benefits they bring in addressing climate problems so first I think the most important thing is they they will bring huge benefits uh because
• 42:30 - 43:00 we'll be able to basically see things that we could not we can see further faster M uh and that's what we've all tried to do all the time and that's what AI allows us to do and I have plenty of examples of how that's actually working in business today uh really producing results now the question of data centers so I I I think we um there's certainly
• 43:00 - 43:30 been an awful lot in the Press uh from Microsoft wanting to restart an old nuclear uh um set of nuclear reactors uh through to people saying build more gas fired power generation probably neither is going to really work that way in my my judgment as a matter of example if you wanted to build a gas fired power station in the
• 43:30 - 44:00 United States today uh it would take you a little while to build and I'm not talking about permits it's just actually finding a gas turbine to put into it uh I think many o have been building gas turbines in the past and they've been burnt badly they've seen this movie before and they're saying I'm not sure we want to do this this time so there are lots of issues so I think what what me I've seen companies so this requires
• 44:00 - 44:30 cooporation I've seen companies Clearly say if we could only put all the servers in liquid 100% liquid then we could transfer the heat much faster and indeed that can be done and there's lots of liquids you could use and it's a pretty straightforward piece of chemical engineering to do and you can transfer the heat very very effectively rather better than with gases um the problem is you need cooperation of the people who
• 44:30 - 45:00 make servers to make sure that the glue doesn't come undone uh if it's exposed to liquids and it's basically as simple as that um so that's one point get rid of some heat secondly uh how about researching the whole time to get the right processor for the right activity don't use one size fits all use different processes less heat and thirdly how about use use this is where
• 45:00 - 45:30 I think uh uh deep seek uh made the point that we don't all need to do what we're doing today there's a much more sophisticated way breaking the problem down using different vehicles for different things for training for inference small models large models uh it's always the case and constraints make people will think how to use it uh
• 45:30 - 46:00 well when I did Hands-On work in this area a long long time ago I did um finite difference modeling on a very big scale and uh the computers were awful they were terrible uh and this was in 1972 uh where the biggest computers there were very few of them uh and uh even BP didn't have one we had to go down and Ed one at Nasa as in
• 46:00 - 46:30 California and uh the reason I I say this is we fitted the problem what we had and so we used small models we figured out what to do so that we could actually get something done and I think we'll see some of that happening it's not to say we won't need more power we will I was speaking to the head of a very important utility in the United States a couple of weeks ago who turned to me and said you know we were talk listening to a lot of you said
• 46:30 - 47:00 he said again we can increase the efficiency of the grid hugely and we have ways of doing that combination of sensors and simulation a digital twin of the of the the grid itself uh this will make a very big difference and I think it will not to say there are no problems but I think the the the demand and Supply will converge
• 47:00 - 47:30 they have to converge that's what life is about supply and demand have to converge so slowly that will happen I believe thank you very much Lord Brown I can't resist giving a plug to our recent report on responsible AI which looks at those sort of specific examples of how we do improve the sustainability of AI and there are many design choices available to us so um very helpful I'm now going to try and turn our attention to the global picture and um um there's a question here that's been operated by
• 47:30 - 48:00 many people says given the rise of nationalism in various countries How likely is it that one nation's climate actions will significantly impact Global progress and how might this affect International cooperation on climate goals well in it's it's obviously very high chance because there are no walls around uh any any country and this is a single climate and what one country does will affect affect another uh but it will also affect the
• 48:00 - 48:30 country that affects the other people so the good news is that everybody will be in it together they may just be out of sync with each other I think if you look at China you know China always gets a bad rap on so many things nowadays but actually their five-year plans and what they're doing about emissions basically they kind of hit every time they publish and so they're in a stately progress uh
• 48:30 - 49:00 to get emissions down it doesn't look like it because coal is still being burnt there but actually I think there are plenty of things going on and the same is true with India you know India's big coal burn but you know they their target is to build 20 gaw of Renewables a year they're 12 at the moment which is not bad just a start and I'm sure they'll get that and they'll get there inantly by building all by making almost all the
• 49:00 - 49:30 equipment they need to get there in India I've seen that as I've been to several of these uh sites already so I think there will be ups and downs um and then I think people will begin to incentivize by putting in some form of carbon uh adjustment at the border and that will push people this uh on a day like today I I hate to say it it's it's
• 49:30 - 50:00 an addition to tariffs uh but we have to see how all that works out at the moment uh but uh you know bringing other people's carbon into your country is not what should happen and so I think there will be uh something which will happen do I think there'll be a some Universal solution to this and one price for carbon globally absolutely not well we managed to get 49 minutes in without mentioning the t word so that
• 50:00 - 50:30 that's an achievement of sorts um I'm going to quickly add on Malcolm's question uh sort of as an extension to what we're discussing which is what should be done to improve the chances of success in international collaboration on the unfc process given its vital role in addressing climate change well you can do what you can do I mean I literally I hate to say that but I think more work the work on the technical panel must continue even though some people won't
• 50:30 - 51:00 be there not everyone was there at the beginning anyway and so I think we just got to make do what we shouldn't do is Nash our teeth and say gosh we can't do anything because Joe isn't there or Sue isn't there or not to mention any Nations but it's it's just we just shouldn't do it we just got to carry on um and uh and I think we should carry on I think we might want to think about simply ifying some of the international processes I have in mind cop I I think
• 51:00 - 51:30 it's it probably lost a bit of its total Point here and I think it could be you know if I were running it which I'm not I would suggest we rationalize the activity and focus it to some specific deliverables every year not try and do everything at once but I would say that as a businessman well I'm going to Tagle one more question on a similar theme which is are the sdgs now essentially
• 51:30 - 52:00 discredited and should we be attempting to have a new iteration of um globally agreed climate missions so I think the SGS are fine uh uh but they it's very difficult I think for someone to take keep keep in their head getting on for 20 different objectives so some are good for one set of people other goods for other people uh they really shouldn't be regarded I think as uh uh you know as a whole
• 52:00 - 52:30 basket for everybody I I can't remember them all I have to say I I like to think that people focus on one or two things um certainly businesses need to focus on one of two things I've focused my businesses on to two things one is making money for investors the second one is reducing and they're both equal uh reducing greenhouse gases in line with actually exceeding science-based
• 52:30 - 53:00 targets always exceeding science based targets so these two things I think keep you on point and focused on what you do so I do think uh you know we we tend I remember I still have plenty of businesses I chair and I notice occasionally CEOs getting a bit of push back from their team when there are 18 objectives uh because people will
• 53:00 - 53:30 correctly say well CEO what else can I do other than look at these objectives I've got a business to run as well so keeping the most important things in focus is the way to go and it may well be that the changes we're seeing happening in the world today might actually make us focus a bit more on the things that really really matter and of course the big thing that really matters is about climate change is Humanity you
• 53:30 - 54:00 know how are we doing are we still taking people out of poverty 50 million a year are we keeping them out of poverty are we keeping them healthy are we stopping diseases which are e exist in the rest of the world coming back into Europe which is happening uh are we stopping uh people uh wanting to leave land because it's no longer productive Etc ET Etc thank you and I feel that since we're at the Royal Academy
• 54:00 - 54:30 engineering we should have the final questions focused on engineers and Engineering so um we're coming towards the end of our time so we're going to need to be um relatively concise but the first question is from Michael who's asking do you consider a lack of Engineers and technologists to be a significant risk to achieving Net Zero uh I do but I also think that we can generate lots of uh engineers and technologists I I really do um so I've never believed that Supply is
• 54:30 - 55:00 fixed when demand goes up uh the supply increases and we just got to get round to it well and just for reassurance the academy is very much committed to being part of that effort I gave you that line I yes I was it was received gratefully Lord Brown and then can I just say these also to be fit for purpose for the future you know so are clearly things going on we lack uh enough nuclear Engineers we need
• 55:00 - 55:30 more nuclear Engineers we need uh people who actually understand the engineering of things like electrochemistry so big if big changes we need to understand Engineers that can apply AI to both uh things which live like proteins and enzymes but then take them into the lab to test them out I pick a few things like this these are really important areas and we also need uh sustainability literacy embedded in our engineering education uh the last question is from
• 55:30 - 56:00 Tony who says how can Engineers overcome the barriers we face in getting our message across for example to policy makers and funders and investors about what really works and what does not and I can't think of a better person to ask than you bearing in mind you straddle all these worlds so I want to this doesn't sound GL I really want everyone to support the Royal Academy of engineering because one of the most powerful and it should remain even more powerful uh focal point for saying what
• 56:00 - 56:30 engineering can actually do for society I I think at every point it's worth just demonstrating what engineering is doing today and asking the question of everybody you know whether you're in Discovery Science in Translation or in commercialization how do you actually apply engineering to get from one from disc recovery to translation and from translation to
• 56:30 - 57:00 application it doesn't matter what you're doing whether that is um at the Crick Institute where we do just that uh or whether it is in a business that is taking a better way of making cement and actually commercializing it at the same price and getting it out to the market so it's all about engine it's certainly engineering thinking and chances are it's almost well it's almost certainly engineering
• 57:00 - 57:30 application well Lord Brown I have to thank you on behalf of our audience for an incredibly powerful and empowering talk and discussion this evening we have ranged far and wide from uh technology to tariffs from the personal to the politics um from the local to the global uh and at the heart of all of that you keep reminding us that this is really about humanity and that is an unbelievably important and galvanizing point for us to focus our attention on
• 57:30 - 58:00 as we think about where we go from here with your call to action reminding us that we all have agency and we all can deploy that in support of this most important cause I would like to thank Lord Brown for um such an insightful lecture for being so generous and ask answering so many questions and most of all to thank you for your leadership on this issue of our time can we thank Lord Brown in the usual
• 58:00 - 58:30 way and I would also like to thank everyone who's joined us both in the room and online your questions were excellent they made my job incredibly easy and uh made sure that Lord Brown got his money worth from this evening um so thank you all for engaging with us tonight uh for those of you join join us online we we bid you good evening and for those of you in the room you're most
• 58:30 - 59:00 welcome to come and join us for a drink in the eay foundation room where you gathered before the event so thank you again and we look forward to welcoming you at a future Academy event in the new future good evening everyone [Applause]