Charles Hall Our Energy Future

Summary

This insightful webinar by the Canadian Association for the Club of Rome explores the complex interplay between energy consumption, economic growth, and sustainability. During the discussion with Charles Hall, we delve into the pivotal concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the impacts of energy efficiency, and the challenges of transitioning to renewable resources. Highlighting the balance between technological advancement and sustainable living, Hall emphasizes the necessity for global cooperation and a shift in societal behavior to mitigate climate change impacts.

Highlights

• Charles Hall introduced the profound concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) during his trout fishing days. 🎣
• The discussion underscores a critical need for political will to harness technology for climate benefits. ✊
• The webinar highlights the paradox of energy efficiency leading to increased consumption through Jevon's Paradox. 🔄
• There's a pressing concern about the rising energy consumption by data centers and its impact on meeting renewable energy goals. 🏭
• Collaboration between indigenous knowledge and modern technology presents new pathways to sustainability. 💡

Key Takeaways

• Charles Hall pioneered the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested—essential for understanding energy efficiency. 🐟
• Balancing technology and behavioral change is crucial for reducing atmospheric carbon. 🌍
• Political will and societal changes are as vital as technological advances in tackling climate change. 🗳️
• Increasing demand for energy, notably from data centers, challenges our transition to renewables. 📈
• Economic growth and environmental sustainability often clash; finding a middle ground is urgent. 🌱

Overview

In this engaging webinar by the Canadian Association for the Club of Rome, Charles Hall explores the intertwining of energy, economy, and environment, stressing the critical concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI). Hall, known for his systems thinking, draws comparisons from nature, illustrating energy balance with anecdotes from his trout fishing days. His insights illuminate how this concept shapes our understanding of energy efficiency and consumption.

The conversation transitions into the broader implications of energy usage, reflecting on the essential need for both technological advancements and behavioral changes. The panel underlines the role of political will and societal shifts in combating climate change, portraying a cooperative global narrative. Mention of Jevon's Paradox highlights the complexities of efficiency efforts resulting in greater overall consumption, a cautionary tale for renewable energy strategies.

Highlighting the session, there's a pressing discourse on the impacts of burgeoning data center energy demands and how they pose significant challenges to sustainable practices. The multifaceted discussion delves into the potential of indigenous knowledge collaborating with modern solutions, presenting a hopeful yet pragmatic outlook towards achieving environmental sustainability. This insightful exchange underscores the urgent need for a balanced approach that integrates economic, environmental, and social dimensions to secure our energy future.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:00: Introduction and Charles Hall's Background The introduction emphasizes the importance of a particular weekly webinar held in Canada, described as the most significant one in the country. The webinar is suggested as a crucial resource for understanding the complex and intricate issues currently being faced. The speaker expresses personal excitement and a sense of connection to the topic or the event.
• 01:00 - 02:00: Concept of Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) The chapter introduces Charles Hall, affectionately called Charlie, who once lived in Montana. It mentions that Charlie was a trout fisherman, a hobby shared by the narrator who lives in Alberta. The narrator reflects on the similar landscapes of Montana and Alberta, which likely influenced their shared passion for trout fishing. The chapter sets the stage for discussing Charlie's significant contributions to the understanding of Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI).
• 02:00 - 03:00: Impact of Peak Oil and Industrial Society The chapter discusses the concept of energy return on energy invested, illustrated through the metaphor of trout fishing. It reflects on how trout need to consume more energy than they expend in their activities, drawing parallels to the broader implications on peak oil and industrial society.
• 03:00 - 04:00: PBS Series: Energy Horizons Chapter Title: PBS Series: Energy Horizons Summary: This chapter discusses Alberta's significance as the oil capital of Canada, emphasizing the frequent reference to Charlie Hall's work, often unknowingly. Charlie Hall is noted for his large-scale systems thinking, particularly concerning the role of energy across human cultures and civilization.
• 04:00 - 05:00: Challenges of Technology and Political Will The chapter discusses a paper from 15 years ago by an unnamed author and John Daly that captured significant attention at the time by appearing in the American Scientist. The author highlights that the main issue discussed in the paper, which pertains to peak oil and its potential realities and implications, is still not fully understood or addressed today.
• 05:00 - 06:00: Dependency on Technology and Societal Changes The chapter explores the dependency of modern society on technology and the profound implications it has, especially in terms of potential failures that such an interdependent system might face. There is a particular focus on the disconnect between scientific discourse and societal preparedness, noting that leaders are often ill-prepared for large-scale technological failures. The challenge lies in the fact that the possibility of significant technological system failures is not sufficiently acknowledged or understood by those in power. This lack of understanding raises concerns about our capability to respond effectively to such crises. The narrative transitions from a direct lecture by Charlie to a different format of discussion, indicating a shift in how the subject is approached.
• 06:00 - 07:00: Energy Efficiency Measures The chapter discusses a PBS series called 'Energy Horizons' focusing on energy in Oregon, particularly featuring Charlie. The specific episode being watched is the sixth in the series, which originally aired on November 21 of the current year.
• 07:00 - 08:00: Demand Side Management Programs This chapter introduces the topic of 'Demand Side Management Programs' with a particular focus on the energy sector. It includes a presentation titled 'The Long Game Energy and the Future' which aims to explore the feasibility and implications of energy management. Viewers are encouraged to watch the presentation and actively participate by posing questions and comments in the chat. A discussion with a guest named Charlie is scheduled to follow the presentation, providing an interactive element to the session.
• 08:00 - 09:00: Jevons Paradox and Energy Use The chapter titled 'Jevons Paradox and Energy Use' discusses how addressing energy and environmental challenges requires more than just technological solutions. It emphasizes the need to also address lifestyle changes and the importance of humility in our approach to living on the planet. The discussion highlights that technological advancements must be complemented by behavioral changes to effectively reduce atmospheric carbon levels. Furthermore, the chapter stresses the necessity for global cooperation and the strength of a networked approach to tackle these issues.
• 09:00 - 10:00: Societal Consumption of Energy The chapter discusses the potential for society to transition to 100% renewable energy. It highlights that the necessary technology is already available, including wave energy, which was developed 20 years ago. The primary obstacle to achieving this shift is financial, as renewable energy sources are currently more expensive than traditional forms. However, with the right investment and commitment, a complete transition to renewable energy is possible within 20 years.
• 10:00 - 11:00: Future Energy Challenges and Data Center Impact The chapter discusses the importance of political will in addressing future energy challenges, particularly in relation to the impact on data centers. It emphasizes that the availability of technology is not the issue; rather, the challenge lies in garnering political support and public awareness for tech integration. The chapter concludes that with sufficient political will and community understanding of the technological benefits, technological challenges can be overcome.
• 11:00 - 12:00: Economic Systems and Energy Dependency This chapter delves into the interplay between economic systems and energy dependency. It highlights the differences in energy consumption behaviors and reliance on technology across countries. For instance, in the United States, there is a tendency to depend heavily on technology. In contrast, countries with a central government focus may have more coordinated behavior in changing power consumption patterns, facilitating a communal approach to energy use.
• 12:00 - 13:00: Importance of Sustainable Energy Transition The chapter discusses the global discourse on achieving climate reductions, which is segmented into three primary approaches: existing technology, emerging technology, and societal change. By 2040 or 2050, it is estimated that 60% of climate mitigation will rely on current technology, 20% on forthcoming technology, and the remaining 20% on shifts in societal energy consumption behaviors. The chapter emphasizes the pivotal role consumption plays in driving broader systemic changes.
• 13:00 - 14:00: Science Fiction vs. Reality of Energy Future The chapter discusses the growing dependence on technology in society and the unlikely prospect of significant societal changes to reduce this reliance. It highlights the importance of following a technology-driven path while remaining open to the potential for societal change. The speaker believes that by investing in both technology and societal transformation, we can avoid an unfavorable outcome in the future.
• 14:00 - 15:30: Educational Outreach and Public Understanding This chapter discusses the role of technology as a tool towards achieving certain objectives, specifically in the context of climate change. It emphasizes the importance of human awareness and action in addressing the issue. Technology alone isn't enough; it requires a collective effort from people recognizing the urgency and making conscious choices. The text also touches on the increased rate at which human beings consume resources, highlighting a need for change in behavior and understanding.
• 15:30 - 16:40: Challenges of Teaching Economics and Energy Policy The chapter discusses the challenges associated with teaching economics and energy policy, particularly in the context of energy efficiency and renewable energy development. It highlights various pathways for individuals and businesses to enhance energy efficiency, such as installing electric heat pumps and ensuring windows are efficient. The emphasis is on improvements that do not necessarily require the development of new renewable energy sources, thereby promoting more sustainable practices.
• 16:40 - 18:20: The Need for Fracking and Energy Independence This chapter discusses the importance of fracking and energy independence. It highlights the efforts being made to individually reduce per capita energy use through various energy efficiency projects. These projects include installing insulation, new windows, and weather stripping doors. Furthermore, there is a focus on building new, energy-efficient buildings and retrofitting older ones to meet contemporary energy standards, all while ensuring the cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency measures.
• 18:20 - 20:00: Role of Energy in Economic Development Efficiency measures, such as using LED lights and energy-efficient appliances, are vital for achieving environmental goals and minimizing costs. Energy efficiency has historically been, and remains, both economically beneficial and environmentally friendly, commonly reducing costs, unlike most utility solutions which increase them.
• 20:00 - 21:40: Consumption vs. Production in Energy Industry This chapter explores the concept of energy efficiency in the energy industry, emphasizing how reducing energy consumption can negate the need for constructing additional transmission lines. It discusses demand-side management programs implemented by utilities, which consist of technologies and initiatives aimed at facilitating more efficient energy usage among consumers. This includes the adoption of more efficient appliances, especially in energy-intensive operations, with a particular focus on air conditioning and refrigeration systems.
• 21:40 - 23:20: The Debate on Renewable Energy Transitions The chapter titled 'The Debate on Renewable Energy Transitions' discusses the importance of energy-efficient appliances and systems. By using less energy in appliances such as washers and dryers, the freed-up capacity can be utilized elsewhere. The text mentions the provision of financial incentives to encourage customers to buy energy-efficient devices. Additionally, there is a mention of efforts to enhance irrigation systems with efficient and mostly electric solutions, backed by incentives for upgrades.
• 23:20 - 25:00: The Role of ERoEI in National Policies The chapter discusses the use of motors for pumping water and collaborations with heavy industry to manage power usage. It describes 'Interruption contracts' where industries agree to specific terms allowing their operations to be temporarily shut down during high demand periods in exchange for a reduced power rate. This allows the freed-up capacity to be redistributed as needed, contributing to energy management and resource allocation.
• 25:00 - 26:40: Discussion on Future Energy Constraints and Resources The chapter discusses PGE's demand reduction program as a solution to manage energy constraints and customer demand. The program involves paying participants to be on standby and, if necessary, to reduce their energy usage upon PGE's request. This approach is presented as a more cost-effective alternative compared to constructing new peaking power plants to accommodate peak demand periods.
• 26:40 - 28:20: Impact of Population on Energy Resources The chapter discusses the impact of population on energy resources, emphasizing the challenges of managing energy demand in a market-driven environment.
• 28:20 - 30:00: The Relationship Between Economics and Energy Use The chapter delves into the intricate relationship between economics and energy use. It touches upon the concept of efficiency, highlighting its dual nature as both beneficial and potentially problematic. The discussion references William Stanley Jevons, a noted polymath and advisor to Queen Victoria, underscoring his recognition of the omnipresent role of coal during his era.
• 30:00 - 31:40: Technology's Role in Energy Use and Climate Change Technology plays a pivotal role in energy use and addressing climate change.
• 31:40 - 33:20: Cultural Shifts in Energy Consumption The chapter discusses the exponential growth in coal consumption in England and the consequent concerns about how long coal reserves will last. A plot indicates that coal usage seems to be growing exponentially, prompting concerns about resource longevity, estimating that coal would last no more than 200 years if consumption continued to grow at the same rate. This situation emphasizes the need for more efficient engines to use coal more effectively. The narrative includes a historical exploration, where an individual consults the Royal Library and discovers three previous studies that reflect similar concerns and analysis.
• 33:20 - 35:00: Integration of Traditional Knowledge with Science This chapter discusses innovations in engine technology, focusing on the transition from earlier steam engines to more efficient models like the Watt steam engine. It highlights how increased efficiency in engines contributed to their affordability and the subsequent increase in coal usage. The chapter underscores the relationship between technological advancements and increased resource consumption due to broader applications and accessibility.
• 35:00 - 36:40: Personal Reflections and Health Metaphors for Energy Crisis In this chapter, the concept of Jevons' Paradox is explored in relation to energy consumption. The paradox is illustrated with examples such as the introduction of smaller, more fuel-efficient Japanese cars in the US during the 1970s. While these cars doubled fuel efficiency, people ended up driving them more, negating the environmental benefits. Similarly, as appliances like refrigerators and lighting become more efficient, their usage tends to increase, such as larger refrigerators and more lighting being consumed. The chapter hints at the apparent contradiction of increased efficiency leading to increased usage, especially emphasized by the example of large billboards in Las Vegas.

Charles Hall Our Energy Future Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 hello and welcome this is Kor live in my view it's the most significant weekly webinar that's being done in Canada it's the place you want to come if you want to understand the multiple dimensions of the mess of wicked messes that we now find ourselves in today is a special treat at least for me because I feel a particular Affinity
• 00:30 - 01:00 to Charles Hall known by his to his friends as Charlie at one stage in his life he lived in Montana and I learned later that he was a trout fisherman well I live just north of Montana in Alberta and trout fishing was part of my youth and the Landscapes of Montana where he would fish and my Landscapes were remarkably similar
• 01:00 - 01:30 and while he was trout fishing he thought that the thought occurred to him that the trout would need to eat more energy and secure more energy than they expended swimming around trying to avoid his hook and trying to find the energy and that that was the source of what became extraordinarily well known as a concept of energy returned on energy invested
• 01:30 - 02:00 and of course Alberta is the oil capital of Canada and therefore you can't go a week in my part of the world without somebody quoting Charlie Hall although of course they don't know they are Charlie is a large-scale systems thinker so he thinks about the role of energy not just in trout but in the whole of human cultures and civilization
• 02:00 - 02:30 and so I want to read you a quote from a paper that he wrote 15 years ago that appeared in the American scientist uh at the time it caught my eye he wrote it with John Daly because it's a it's a point that we're still in the process of not understanding they said the failure today to bring the potential reality and implications of peak oil indeed Peak
• 02:30 - 03:00 everything into scientific discourse and teaching is a grave thre to industrial society the concept of the possibility of a huge multifaceted failure of some substantial part of industrial civilization is so completely outside the understanding of our leaders that we are totally unprepared what we're going to do today is a little different rather than Charlie talking to us directly we're
• 03:00 - 03:30 going to be watching the sixth in a series that was developed by PBS called Energy Horizons it was about energy in Oregon and Charlie was in that series he's particularly featured in the sixth which is what we're watching today it was first broadcast on PBS the 21st of uh November this year and
• 03:30 - 04:00 the title is the long game energy and the future can we do this what does it take and what does it mean and so we'll watch that together as you watch it please put your questions and comments in the chat and then afterwards uh we will engage Charlie in a conversation thank you
• 04:00 - 04:30 we're not going to be able to just get ourselves out of this mess with technology we've also got to address the roots of the problem which I think have to do with lifestyle and a lack of humility about how we live on the planet it's both technology and and behavior without those things together it's going to be very difficult to reduce the amount of atmospheric carbon it's going to require cooperation on a global scale strength of our program is really really the networked nature of it
• 04:30 - 05:00 I want to go ahead and invite the next panel before lunch for all its failures humanity is pretty impressive sometimes we are occasionally able to step up and do impressive things the technolog is already there we could be 100% renewable if we wanted to spend the money if we wanted to make it happen we could do it in 20 years it already exists wave energy was around 20 years ago the machines worked it's just they cost more than other forms of
• 05:00 - 05:30 generation technology isn't the problem it's will it's political will so political will is going to be huge and and that's going to depend on who gets elected it's going to depend on how we tell the story about what we're trying to do it's going to depend on individuals and legislators people communities seeing benefit into this shift of Technology directly if we can do that if we have the political will we can overcome all of the technology challenges
• 05:30 - 06:00 so I would say in a country like the us we like to depend on technology in countries where there's more Reliance or more trust in central government they can change Behavior more so they might change the way people consume power and and work in as a cohesive unit more whereas I'd say in the US we're very much more technology focused if we look at what some of the
• 06:00 - 06:30 greatest minds are saying around the world where are we going to get climate reductions from and they sort of break it up between technology that we have technology that we need and what societal change by 2040 2050 we can sort of rely maybe 60% on technology we have maybe 20% on technology that's coming and 20% on society changing its ways of consuming power because ultimately it's consumption that drives everything else
• 06:30 - 07:00 I think in the context of our again I think we for better for worse are going to be pretty technology dependent I would love to say we're going to see significant societal change to reduce that demand but I just don't see evidence of it to give me a lot of confidence in that and I don't see any detriment in following a technology path while believing in the fact that there could be societal change because I think if we believe in one and we don't invest in both we could end up in an end game
• 07:00 - 07:30 where we go nowhere technology is going to be an asset towards an objective but where I place my faith in or the people that begin to see the importance of addressing it it is not doing one thing that affects the climate change or not obviously we as human beings are beginning to consume a lot of resources at a much higher rate but it is not only
• 07:30 - 08:00 creating new sources of energy to offset it it is also how do you bring about efficiencies and what you do there are lots of Pathways for those of us who have homes or businesses to approach Energy Efficiency to put in electric heat pumps make sure that our windows are as efficient as possible so a lot of this work we can also do with Energy Efficiency which doesn't actually require development of more renewable energy we have been doing a really good
• 08:00 - 08:30 job of individually reducing our per capita use of energy and that's because we've been doing a lot of Energy Efficiency projects so we're putting insulation in our walls we're putting new windows we're weather stripping our doors and so we're doing all those weatherization things and we're building new buildings that are substantially better energy-wise than the ones that were built 1990 and before we have to go back and retrofit all those but the new ones are very efficient making sure that we do all those cost effective Energy
• 08:30 - 09:00 Efficiency measures that we can do putting in LED lights energy efficient appliances all those things really help create a system that works better achieves our greenes G goals and keeps costs as low as possible Energy Efficiency for the longest time and still is was the least environmentally impactful resource but also the least cost it actually was one of the only things that utilities can do that actually lowered people's cost everything else we do raises beable cost
• 09:00 - 09:30 Energy Efficiency also means that if you're using less energy you don't have to build as many transmission lines you can add capacity by having less energy used for a long time we have operated what utilities call demand side management programs and these are mostly various kinds of Technologies and programs to help customers use energy more efficiently more efficient appliances particularly in energy intensive Operations Air conditioning systems principally Refrigeration large
• 09:30 - 10:00 appliances like washers and dryers if those operations are using less energy that is capacity that we can use somewhere else we actually provide cash incentives to help customers purchase those devices another area that we worked on is uh efficient irrigation systems you know again incentives to upgrade to more modern mostly electric
• 10:00 - 10:30 motors for pumping and water uh but also we have worked with heavy industry on Interruption contracts for a break on the power rate that they pay they agree to certain Interruption parameters so if we're face with a problem on our system or a huge spike in demand we can go to that customer and say we need to take advantage of your Interruption parameters so if you'll shut down certain amount of your operation that's capacity that we can then use elsewhere
• 10:30 - 11:00 to deal with the dynamic EB and flow of customer demand across our system PGE has a demand Reduction Program where they actually pay people to stand by and they pay them on a monthly basis and they pay them to stand by in case they need them to drop load and then they've signed up that if PGE says we need you to drop load they'll drop you know half their load and they'll shut off all this stuff that's way cheaper than building a peing plant for that particular time or
• 11:00 - 11:30 going out onto the market when everybody else is on the market and the price went up it's really expensive to do that so being able to manage that Demand with computers to control the equipment is already valuable and we do it quite often and we're going to do more of it and people can out if they want to here's a high-end uh heat exchanger and so we don't have a furnace uh we we just use this thing which is pretty
• 11:30 - 12:00 efficient at turning electricity into heat in the house yes efficiency is a good thing but it's a twoed sword and I'm sure lots of people you've interviewed are going to talk about efficiency William Stanley jevons is one of my heroes he was a polymath a very smart guy Queen Victoria's advisor say you know the coal is all around us all the time what's happening
• 12:00 - 12:30 I think we need to understand this so they said who's the smartest guy around and they went to jvon and they said uh Stanley here's a grant for two years go find out about coal they said okay he wrote this all up in a book called the coal question all economic activity goes back to Coal he goes through all kinds of examples fisheries and and farming and that all went back to Coal he was amazed at that so England's using a lot
• 12:30 - 13:00 of coal how much Cal are they using well he plotted it it seem to be growing exponentially okay England's been here a long time how long will the coal last and E said well no more than 200 years and less if we keep growing exponentially we got to build more efficient engines use that call more efficiently so it goes to the Royal Library and looks things up and he founds out that there had been three previous studies similar to him
• 13:00 - 13:30 on the sav engine the new colan engine the earlier steam engine before the watt steam engine and they all concluded the same thing we needed to make our engines more efficient and they did and the one engine was much more efficient but it made it cheaper and by making it cheaper people found more uses for it and it actually contributed to the increase in the use of coal
• 13:30 - 14:00 and this javon's Paradox comes up again and again in the 1970s when smaller Japanese cars came into the us we doubled our fuel efficiency and people drove the cars twice as much we make refrigerators more efficient so they they're bigger we've made lighting more efficient so people use more of it I guess that ultimate example some big billboard in Las V Vegas jeevan's Paradox doesn't always
• 14:00 - 14:30 happen but it often or mostly happens so it's good to be more efficient but you have to cap the use you have to talk about the total use first one of the things that I would observe though in our company's experience is that the advances in lighting efficiency the move from incandescent lighting to compact fluoresence to LEDs a huge energy saver because the
• 14:30 - 15:00 light output has remained essentially the same the amount of electricity consumed is significantly less so even though people are using more lighting than they might otherwise have the overall demand from Lighting systems has really gone down people could do what's called take back when their bill goes down because they got more energy efficient house they turn it from 68 to 70 and they use more energy but the net effect overall is that that the Energy Efficiency saves a lot of energy and we
• 15:00 - 15:30 use a lot less energy but also the quality of life is an important factor energy is a means to an end right so it's what we're using it for so quality of life is actually a big important part of what's happening in that Paradigm as well technology is one essential component it's it's it's it's essential but it's insufficient and it's insufficient for the simple fact that if you look at the Historical energy use every time we
• 15:30 - 16:00 bring new ways to convert and use energy we use more energy you know when we started as an example using oil instead of just coal did we stop using coal no we just started using oil also we just started using natural gas also we just started using nuclear also so our energy use is continuing to go up our CO2 emissions is continuing to go up so imagine a future in 30 years where we've solved 90% of the problem with emissions
• 16:00 - 16:30 that would be a remarkable achievement technologically infrastructure 90% carbon free but we've increased our energy consumption globally by a factor of five say we still have half the emissions we have today that's untenable this is one of our biggest vulnerabilities moving forward honestly we know that electricity demand is going to increase because we're going going to have more Eves on the road and we're going to have more electric heat pumps in our homes but in the past we' we've been able to largely use Energy
• 16:30 - 17:00 Efficiency and keep up with increased demand although you know we we we're going to have to work at it but now we're starting to understand and this is a nationwide issue the impact of data centers data centers now use 4% of the nation's electricity the estimates are that it could go up as much as 6% that 2% means everything their needs are going to be exacerbated by Ai and cloud computing when we are working really hard to get to non-fossil fuel energy sources and really building up the non
• 17:00 - 17:30 fossil fuel energy sources and you have these huge demand entities come in there is a real question about how we are going to be able to stretch what we're already doing on the ground well enough to incorporate data centers Oregon is currently home to over 100 data centers many of which were built in just the last few years with more on the way certain parts of Oregon have become data center hotspots due to to local tax policies which incentivize companies
• 17:30 - 18:00 like Amazon and Google to build in their communities Hillsboro the Dows and Umatilla County have all seen extensive data center development the Umatilla Electric Cooperative is among the smallest Utilities in Oregon with only 16,000 customers who were mostly provided for by nearby renewable hydropower the utility now now has the third largest carbon footprint in the
• 18:00 - 18:30 state after PGE and Pacific Corp because the energy demand of data centers exceeds what the consumer-owned Electric Cooperative can provide with renewable energy when the data centers are located in consumer owned utilities those utilities largely get their energy from bonaval Power Administration which gives them a contracted amount if they use all of their contracted energy that they're getting from BPA they need to go to the
• 18:30 - 19:00 energy Market in the case of um matella a lot of the energy that's been bought on the market is not clean energy and so that's how you really start to see both the exponential use of energy and the exponential use of dirty fuel coming into the state I think the good news here is that the companies largely that run these data centers we know who they are the Amazon Google apples of the world I don't think they want to be seen as the guy who sent the nation back to
• 19:00 - 19:30 Coal so they are working hard to try to develop renewable energy sources independently so that they can say that their data centers hold renewable energy in 2023 we tried to run a bill in my committee it was actually my bill that would have required data centers that are located in the consumer-owned utility parts of the state to meet the state's clean energy goals that is 80% clean by 2030 100% % by 2040 we got a
• 19:30 - 20:00 lot of push back um on that and we set the bill aside since then we've really developed I think a very positive uh working relationship with Amazon in particular that was at the issue in that case and we've started to realize that this is not just an issue in consumer owned utility areas it is an issue of the quantity of energy we are going to have available so you've got PGE and pack scrambling to meet our 2030 goals and all of a sudden you have you know if
• 20:00 - 20:30 one data center uses as much power as 85,000 homes that's the size of Medford right so what are you going to do then you know the need to replace or replenish that clean energy is is really tremendous we have clean energy goals they're working hard to develop clean energy but just the data center demand is going to be very difficult for us to keep up with it's a big conundrum we're just starting to understand what the implications may be because energy demand is rapidly increasing there's a
• 20:30 - 21:00 risk that the current rate of renewable expansion will not keep Pace in a way which addresses our climate issues or the looming depletion of economically accessible fossil fuel resources energy like any commodity has its price driven by procurement costs and Market forces human economic systems uh are similar to Natural system I mean you know we're
• 21:00 - 21:30 natural we're organisms we're animals and so we had to have a continual influx of energy to maintain ourselves maintain our cultures early economists in one group for example called the physiocrats Ken and others who are writing in 1750 in France especially and they thought all value came from the land energy came from the Sun and was captured by forests
• 21:30 - 22:00 and by agriculture F the animals and so forth so it was all about the land more land you had like in Jane Austin novels more land you had the more wealth you had then the classical economists Adam Smith and up to KL Marx thought that value came from labor people concentrated in factories with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution you know physically putting things together neoclassical Economist today
• 22:00 - 22:30 solo for example in the 1950s wrote about this thought that value came from Capital we were using oil basically to run the economy to make things and we did that with machines which are capital so each of them are actually talking about the energy sources of their time but they didn't have this synthetic overview to understand they're all about energy here's a dollar a dollar is worth a whole lot less than when I was doing a paper root as a kid money used to be
• 22:30 - 23:00 backed by gold and it's thought that gold is some kind of standard of value but when the Spaniards brought back the gold from the new world to the old world they doubled almost tripled the amount of gold in the old world but they haveed its value the energy at that time that was running the economy solar energy that was running Agri culture and Forestry that was growing the fuel and
• 23:00 - 23:30 the energy of the people to chop the food and the draft animals to plow the land whatever all of that energy had not changed that's true today this should say on it pay to the bearer five megajoules of energy which is you know half a coffee cup worth of oil that's about five megga there more or less if you buy a bagel how does it Bagel get there well here's what happens
• 23:30 - 24:00 fertilizer is put in a bag and barged up the Mississippi River using diesel and then taken to Farmers with diesel trucks and spread on the ground with diesel tractors then wheat is harvested using diesel and then using oil or electricity ground up put in a bag put on a train shipped across from Nebraska I suppose to Oregon or New York City as a bag of flour and then mixed using energy in the
• 24:00 - 24:30 baker's shop and put into an oven fired to natural gas in other words there all these energy steps no energy no bagel no energy no economy and that applies Everywhere You Look So for every dollar you spend that's five megajoules or half a coffee cups worth of oil and if you buy a new car well you think about it quite a lot of energy that goes in there we have to use the
• 24:30 - 25:00 oil that we use wisely next 50 years is going to be really really difficult because we're going to have to replace the cheap and abundant oil and gas with something else which will be very energy intensive to do as you mine more and more of either oil or coal or copper or 100 other materials that we use we always use the best stuff first
• 25:00 - 25:30 that's Ricardo's principle from economics always use the best stuff first so that means over time we have to use poorer and poorer grade resources that means it's taking more and more energy to get your next ton of copper if we go to a renewable World we're going to have to use more and more materials common ones like copper and exotic ones like indium and who knows Cobalt and what else and so we have to to grind up 10 times more stuff than we did in 1920
• 25:30 - 26:00 this is happening to everything that we're dealing with is the energy cost of depletion oil is going to cost more in the future because you have to use more energy to get it everything we have in our economy is based on oil if the future of oil is how I think it will be you know we're up the stream in our canoe without a paddle and the waterfall is below nor we got to do something
• 26:00 - 26:30 so I think shifting to Renewables is the only option and I don't know if we can do it I don't know if we have the materials I don't know if we have the oil to make and move around machines if as I think oil becomes more expensive there's going to be less and less energy available for the rest of society and people are going to demand
• 26:30 - 27:00 that that they maintain their salaries their retirement benefits their healthc care you got to squeeze all of that out of a smaller and smaller energy resource every time a politician says that he's going to make your life better by having more of this or more of that think each time well how much energy is that how much energy is that and that to me makes the question of distribution I Rich versus poor much more important how much
• 27:00 - 27:30 energy are we going to have in the future and who gets it and what it means politically as we see in the United States today is that it makes the country harder and harder to govern you know politicians may not help but the left thinks it's the right and the right thinks it's the left there nothing to do with that has to do with resources people get used to this they get used to the increase used to say in America you're going to
• 27:30 - 28:00 be richer than your parents remember that not true anymore it's possible that economic downturns centered on energy lie in our future even with the adoption of Renewables we see today decreased access to cheap fossil fuels early in this transitional period may also ironically impact our ability to address the symptoms of climate change the ocean is rising things are getting
• 28:00 - 28:30 warmer well they're trying to fix that sear rise with what what do you think they use to try to fix it oil to make barriers to make levies to keep the levies working thank God every time I see a war and and all this infrastructure destroyed by idiots with with hoers and I'm thinking my God how much precious and embodied energy are we
• 28:30 - 29:00 destroying if we're going to make some transition to A Brave New World of renewable energy because we're going to run out of the high-grade fossil fuels then uh how are we going to do that to imagine how much energy is harnessed in there imagination is not necessary the scale is readily quantifiable we are presently generating
• 29:00 - 29:30 12.75 billion GW in science fiction we're often presented with high energy depictions of the future energize teleporters replicators phasers and warp drives facilitate space fairing Adventures through a populous Galaxy full of New Life and new civilizations
• 29:30 - 30:00 to boldly go where no one has gone before this is a hopeful exciting vision for our future but there's a problem if it were possible to achieve these aspirations wouldn't there be others in the universe who already advanced past energy scarcity into long lived and prosperous civilizations that spread throughout the
• 30:00 - 30:30 cosmos live long and prosper despite the size and age of the universe we see no conclusive evidence of this a problem known as the fery Paradox I got a great graph and it shows from 10,000 years in the past to 10,000 in the future and here you've got a guy a caveman walking along and then you have this big spike and up here there's
• 30:30 - 31:00 a guy in a space suit and then it comes down the other side this is the history of our fossil fuels and there you have a same caveman more or less walking along except he's got a bow and arrow yeah you might have only this window of a hundred years that you would be able to send out spacecraft with signals or send out radio waves that somebody might be able to uh intercept somewhere else who know know I think
• 31:00 - 31:30 it's a helpful reminder that Humanity has only been around in a sort of modern form for around 2,000 years and in that time we spent uh you know 70 80% of that basically doing about the same thing and then the last two 300 years we're an entirely new world you even my own parents right Dad was born in 27 everything about modern world is just different than what he experienced growing up and that's going to be exact the same thing for the Next
• 31:30 - 32:00 Generation so if you think of humanity and sort of the beginning of of civilization down here and know here we are today and nine billion of us on the planet there's a sense that we're at we're at the end of something and it's possible but if we aren't and we make good decisions then we're actually at the beginning of a history that will include innumerable people whom our decisions today will affect
• 32:00 - 32:30 there may never be nine billion people ever again alive at one time but the total number of people over the next 100 200 500,000 years is enormous we're just the beginning of humanity if we leave them a planet that is depleted of resources um that the environment is unhabitable climate has gotten to the point where it's not conducive to human flourishing what what have we left what will we do in the short term to shorten or minimize what those impacts will be
• 32:30 - 33:00 and so there's two schools of thought when it comes to how do we deal with climate change a completely engineered solution or stop doing what we're doing and perhaps Mother Nature will fix it on our own there is this idea that you can completely engineer a climate change solution along the lines of like terraforming I'm not saying it's impossible it just you have to violate the rules that we already have create your own rules and at that
• 33:00 - 33:30 point you're going to be making your own rules and creating engineered solution in a Cascade effect it would be simpler cheaper and easier if we just backed off our CO2 emissions and see how that works and then potentially look at other more radical engineered Solutions part of the issue too is the value system of the society right consumerism if the goal is to make money
• 33:30 - 34:00 by selling as much as possible then you have to continually make or or create need and you create need and then you generate more production which is more extractive and has more consequences on the disposal end so there are these treadmills right of production and consumption that speed up and you've got companies that are competing with each other to sell more faster and to create more and more needs so that whole way of
• 34:00 - 34:30 thinking that whole economic mindset I think has to be rethought and and altered how do we solve this problem well with less fewer humans less economics less everything and work on quality of life I mean families and friends and nature take a walk in nature and don't think you have to have a better car than your your neighbor and show off your wealth all of that stuff
• 34:30 - 35:00 it's just stupid so you're talking about kind of um a scaling back of human civilization over time I think that's the only way we're going to make it certainly not by growth there's a degrowth society that's out there and all kinds of similar organizations but a lot of people understand this if not exactly the way I do I certainly have no magic answer that will allow us to continue to and that's for sure and I don't even
• 35:00 - 35:30 know if I have an answer that will allow us to continue at the level where we're at and we have to look into constraints on our own behavior as being probably the most important knowledge that we need for the future what other option have you got all these people you've interviewed do they have any option to replace oil have you looked at the numbers do they give you the
• 35:30 - 36:00 numbers conversely do you ever think about or hear about um degrowth as a concept I think de um yes and it's not very popular I don't talk about degrowth um you know there are absolutely people who are looking at where we are and what the planet needs and very much affirm the idea that we have to take a big step back I don't think that is a pathway that's going to get you the public will that you're going to need to move forward you can't stop growth and have a
• 36:00 - 36:30 quality of life I don't understand that philosophy I don't you know most of people in the building and the farming and the ranching and the fishing you know 95% of them they just want to be productive they want to pay their bills they obey the law they want to leave something good for their kids that brings a better quality of life does it need to be managed well does government have a role there absolutely but the role is not to shut everybody down and make everybody's life strictly on
• 36:30 - 37:00 government dependency because it cannot be sustained I'll give you an example you know I uh will be over the course of the next few days uh talking to battery facilities you know we've got you know tremendous growth in the battery space and you know that's an opportunity for really good clean energy jobs I do think it's a trap to think that we can just scale back our standard of living I just don't believe that that is a productive disc discussion because I don't think we will have that kind of
• 37:00 - 37:30 consensus that I alluded to before for that transformational change if we start saying well you need to change your standard of living I don't think that ultimately would be successful so I'm not an advocate for that I can see the temptation to do that because the loads are skyrocketing I mean they are getting much larger and they're shifting in time and it's it's kind of like hitting a curveball that's speeding up so this is a big issue so I see this as a fundamental change the way we think about economic growth growth we essentially need a economic growth model
• 37:30 - 38:00 a way for people to make money let's be honest a way for people to get rich you know that fits our model that doesn't rely on continually increasing both emissions and population and energy use so this is a hard challenge a social challenge there are extremists one people say we don't have to do anything as LPS and then there's other people that say we have to shut down everything and and go back to the Renaissance and so there's the EXT ex polarizing viewpoints in some cases people adopt
• 38:00 - 38:30 those to kind of like pull people towards their areas but it's that area in the middle that is really where I think most of the action really happens and where actually most of the progress happens so it's the people that say yeah but and then they figure it out we've been doing that for decades and decades centuries actually where we've been dealing with the extremes and saying that's nice but we need to actually solve this practical about it so I'm a pragmatist I think shutting down
• 38:30 - 39:00 everything and going back to the Renaissance or just sticking our head in the ground and just saying it doesn't even exist are not really viable Solutions at all look at the Clean Water Act and the Clean Air Act in the 60s this clean water and clean air were a disaster I mean you could light the pomac on fire and now there is lots of clean water and and lots of clean air and we've actually changed the way we do things we instituted better technology we changed the way we formulate our fuels and we change the way that we do
• 39:00 - 39:30 exhausts a lot of that has to do with regulation and smart regulation that actually gets us there what I think is important to emphasize is that effectively addressing climate change does not mean that we will not have a robust economy it does not mean that you're going to have to sit at home because you can't get in your car and go any place I mean what we've really demonstrated in the last decade is that we can move much more to renewable energy and still have robust economies and still have you know people who who live rich lives there's no reason to
• 39:30 - 40:00 think that this should undermine or significantly depress the way we want to live our lives the Oregon Department of energy along with the Oregon climate Action Agency ocac recently developed a project called the tiger project transformational integrated greenhouse gas emission reduction project Tigger and the tiger project assessed if we have all these numerous programs and regulations that we have in the state can we meet our greenhouse gas emission C goals and what we found was yes the
• 40:00 - 40:30 the programs and regulations we already have in place have established the policy framework to get us to our goals but that only happens if they're fully implemented as planned and fully funded and so that has to play out so we can meet our goals we have the policy framework to get there and we know how to do it another thing we looked at in the tiger project was what if we accelerated our goals can we do that and what we found was yes we can do that that's very possible very doable and not only that it's cost effective to do that
• 40:30 - 41:00 over a 25 year period through 2050 if we do Accelerate from 2035 to 2030 was a total of $47 billion to oregonians and then if you add in the net benefit of the increased health benefits that we get from that new system it's another $73 billion for a total of about $120 billion cumulated by 2050 if we just accelerate our goals that's pretty significant the extremes people are not going to help us get
• 41:00 - 41:30 there I don't think back to the Renaissance I me you know my cameraman here is a diabetic that that's not GNA work for you yeah I don't like that yeah yeah right yeah a friend of mine is too he's on a little pump that would be bad his technology saves his life every day gonna need some electricity and some plastic to uh kind of keep that going you know it's a combination of all these things being conscious about our choices adopting new technologies investing where we can and being very cognizant all the time of how much work we have to do the larger
• 41:30 - 42:00 society is brilliant in many ways you know we can go to the Moon split atoms do all kinds of of things that uh other cultures and societies haven't been able to do but not always with a lot of Forward Thinking so now we've gotten ourselves into a very large mess I think it would help if they would listen to tribes you know I think tribes have a really really good understanding of our homelands and how the ecosystems
• 42:00 - 42:30 function but also have the humility to try to think ahead right and to not move too quickly because it's monetarily rewarding or because it's expedient in terms of you know the solving a problem that's plaguing us right now I'm not a scientist as I said before however I suppose that technology could be part of that solution but not the sole component I mean we
• 42:30 - 43:00 have to figure out a way to work together you know and tribes have a lot of indigenous knowledge you know we've lived in these areas for thousands of years you know we are stewards of this land and um whether it's on true tribal land it's all it's all uh ancestral territory something like 6 million Acres right so we feel we are still stewards of all of that land and we want to try to protect that land we want to work
• 43:00 - 43:30 together combine our indigenous knowledge and along with our professional staff to make that happen cultures before settlement were incredibly dependent on the land those that were closest and understood how these systems work had a bounty so I can never discount the knowledge that is passed on and is known
• 43:30 - 44:00 as something we call traditional knowledge and if you really want to talk about climate change you have to understand Baseline conditions before climate change incorporating traditional knowledge into traditional Western science I think is imperative to understand exactly how things have changed or the magnitude of change we've seen over time I'd like to think I'd like to work with the rules that the planet has set forth as opposed to I
• 44:00 - 44:30 taking a more radical science fiction completely engineered solution everything's conrete and we have oxygen scrubbers I like plants short answer we need both and a lot of Hope years ago I went through an exper ience which kind of woke me up in terms
• 44:30 - 45:00 of probabilities of ongoing existence and that was a I was diagnosed with acute myoid leukemia absent treatment I was given two months to live but he said if we can give you an aggressive round of chemotherapy and get you into remission your chance of being alive in two years is 20% if we can get you through two three and four rounds of chemotherapy plus total body radiation and a bone marrow transplant your chance of being
• 45:00 - 45:30 alive in 2 years is 50% now when somebody says to you your chance of being alive in 2 years is 50% most people will say what gez that sucks but when the choice is dead in two months it looks pretty good and so not surprisingly I opted to take the treatment so I liken that to our situation with climate change I don't know what our chance es of diverting that trajectory to one that with which
• 45:30 - 46:00 we can live I don't know what the probability is but I am pretty confident if we do nothing the outcome will be disastrous I liken it if if you like to existential assertives if we do nothing we know what the outcome is so let's assert we have a chance of diverting that trajectory and let's do the best we
• 46:00 - 46:30 can do you believe that this is a problem that we can solve that do you think that one day we'll be looking back at this period of history and seeing it as that was a challenge among all the other challenges of history that humans suffered through and ultimately prevailed over when I first started this business I would came in thinking about the Environmental impacts of energy and and I value energy because it's impacts
• 46:30 - 47:00 everything we do on a daily basis but I thought we could do it better and more effectively more efficiently and less polluting I was the president of the solar energy Association of Oregon and I started the renewable Northwest project to help get these things going and when I was doing that 30 years ago they were like nowhere this wasn't happening and slowly but surely it has increased and then in the last like five five seven years it has taken
• 47:00 - 47:30 off Nature has been here you you know people worry about nature I don't worry about nature Nature's going to continue Mother Nature bats last if we understand her rules we have a chance of making this transition we will be living with the effects of climate change there's no doubt about that the science tells us that right we we already in a different world than I grew up in and I think about my kids and what
• 47:30 - 48:00 world they're going to have and their kids so I think we will eventually arrest what's going on will it happen in my lifetime I'm not sure as long as we are good to each other and we we focus on what technology can do and what it can't do we are cognizant what it cannot do which is it cannot make an agreement with your neighbor you know it cannot really build up community right if there's one thing that gives me concern it's it's that in
• 48:00 - 48:30 this year of 2024 can we talk to our neighbors can we talk to our fellow citizens don't chew from the hip don't be overreactive don't tell you if you don't believe exactly what I believe you're an idiot I am optimistic I have to be you know this is a time when you pull everybody together and you stop talking about unifying and you say okay here's my philosophic on political views here's why I believe this if they'll
• 48:30 - 49:00 listen and then you likewise listen there can be a great joy in actually solving problems our country is always had to overcome big problem big issue so so the original idea uh was to give a talk on what really concerns me but I I'm going to set to one sentence because this PBS thing came up
• 49:00 - 49:30 and I thought it was more valuable um to have that view of the different perspectives um so I want to um make the point that what really concerns me is that Eary declines as we use up the best fossil fuels um which we have certainly already doing in Canada for example then the price of oil will have to increase and and everything is made with oil uh everything in our
• 49:30 - 50:00 society um and so the price of everything goes up so we get that as inflation and people blame inflation on their leaders we've just seen that in the United States big time and so I think what we're doing is making the world increasingly difficult or impossible to govern certainly with Democratic processes because the public doesn't understand the consequences of depletion um so let's just leave that as a main
• 50:00 - 50:30 point there um and I'll take uh I'll now try to take some questions and I have one more point to make but I'll do it later uh the film has avoided the p word completely well Charlie if you you'll let me I'll we have a way of dealing with questions and I'll field them for you oh yeah please do oh you can you you can
• 50:30 - 51:00 just ignore what's in the chat um okay and as the host I get the privilege of asking uh the first question um thank you for your clarification one of the things that uh jumped out for me H and so in that sense this series is the this bits you chose were very helpful because it's clear that the vast majority of people uh that
• 51:00 - 51:30 you're an outlier to them the the views that you hold that my wife would say that even those who uh you are in the energy business and claim that they understand and whatever else they don't have I mean not only the politicians and and um I'm what I'm wondering about is that when you you were teaching and regularly engaged with students and when you would get to the point in the class of making the kinds
• 51:30 - 52:00 of points that you were making in this program what kind of responses were you finding from the young adults by and large that you were teaching were they able to uh to understand that that this is a profound shift in the their anticipations of the future were they there ahead of you you uh can you talk about that a bit okay two points one
• 52:00 - 52:30 I've taught economics to thousands of students in the ivy league in the State University of New York and University of Montana and uh I would say of all the students that have taken my courses in biophysical economics uh to my knowledge and I that I kind of know not a single one of them has not accepted biophysical economics once they
• 52:30 - 53:00 understood it and and repudiated uh conventional economics and we have a book on that and so forth so uh but to me it's terrible that we teach economics as we do instead of from a biophysical perspective so that's but all the students I've had have not had a problem there where I have had a problem is that many of my students have told me
• 53:00 - 53:30 over you know 50 years nearly of college teaching you know more about energy than anybody else why don't you suggest policy and you know my easy out answer is well I'm a scientist I'm not a policy person um but I'm horn because as any of you will see if
• 53:30 - 54:00 you choose to read the paper that uh art is making available to all of you by myself and the philosopher mcquerter um there's also something called the maximum power principle which says throughout evolutionary time there's been natural selection for power for organisms to gain power and it's a little bit more complicated than what I say you can read the article and then you can can send me an email and ask me how to further
• 54:00 - 54:30 questions on that but for example I'm in favor of fracking here I am an ecologist I'm in favor of fracking because it saved the United States ass and if and if we did not have fracking we our oil production would be only 30% of what it is now and our gas production would be 20% fracking has saved the United States ass in international circumstances which is especially important with what Russia is doing in
• 54:30 - 55:00 Ukraine and might do otherwise uh under these circumstances and you can just see the impact in Europe which has far less energy than the United States so uh fracking has high energy return on investment it we were wrong we we did not see fracking coming we thought PE oil would be here and indeed without fracking we would be in terrible situation in the United States but with fracking uh we are the world's largest oil producer under
• 55:00 - 55:30 Biden and we can only hope that um we've reached the end of the sweet spots that's very clear and that decline will set in while Donald Trump is President that's a political statement I suppose which I don't usually make well we'll let it stand there thank you uh Paul Beckwith if you would turn on your camera uh you can ask your question and John Holland you will be
• 55:30 - 56:00 next is Paul still with us well let's take the second while we're waiting for the first so John uh your question and following John uh if Paul doesn't show up we'll be
• 56:00 - 56:30 Richard thank you um am I coming through am I on the screen yes okay look uh th this was a wonderful talk wonderful video um there was a statement made fairly early on I don't remember who made it just seven words Al ultimately it's our consumption that drives
• 56:30 - 57:00 everything I have been engaged in Energy Systems analysis with computers of all kinds starting with an IBM 370 in 1980s um and that's the that captures the fundamental lesson of that kind of study it's not well known in Kor uh we have quite a few
• 57:00 - 57:30 people who have fossil fuel companies in their Gun Site okay I understand that but in the final analysis fossil fuel companies would not be producing fossil fuels if it had no Market to sell it into and I know there's more than we citizens that make the market but we're an important part so many of our Kor
• 57:30 - 58:00 members have already going down that track they've purchased electric vehicles which are fueled from essentially renewable sources and so uh I would encourage folks who are on the track of the fossil fuel companies to Simply look more broadly so thanks very much Ruben okay and and I could just note that
• 58:00 - 58:30 yours will be the last comment without a question if not have a question do not thank you um because we want to take advantage of Charlie being here so Richard thank you I I one of the things I wanted to pick up on uh Charlie you mentioned earlier on that um yes we need move to Renewables but we may not have the resources needed to um to supply the
• 58:30 - 59:00 renewable energy and I'm wondering do you have data to support that because there are a lot of countries that have moved to the renewable energy very successfully um that's my first question and the second one was about fracking but I'll let's answer the first question first well first I don't know about the countries that have because I don't believe that's true I just heard a very negative thing about Australia's problems but the fossil fuel use is
• 59:00 - 59:30 still increasing and and the Renewables are just a new wedge on top of it uh we are not decreasing we're not displacing fossil fuels we're just adding to the mix maybe slowing down the growth of fossil fuel globally and in my country um us but um I we could talk about individual companies the person for you to check with that I particularly think is understands it is Simon micho he's in however you spell
• 59:30 - 60:00 that French wise um Mi iux and he's in uh Finland uh the Finland Geo something survey and he's really he's got a huge report where he goes element by element and so for example an electric car has three times more copper than a internal combustion uh car of the same type so uh I worry
• 60:00 - 60:30 about copper it's not that we're going to run out of copper we can always grind up more of very poor ore and get a little bit of copper it's just the total environmental impact and the total energy cost of getting the next uh kilogram of copper and let's not get into neodymium and indium and 100 other elements so but check out Simon I was going to say for instance if you just take Norway for instance I mean 98.8 98.3% of its energy comes from
• 60:30 - 61:00 renewable resources that's good Norway's got lots of mountains in very few people and they have a lot of oil and they they certainly could you know for their industry for so creating a lot of econ economic reasons they could say well gee we could use our oil because they have tons of oil but um they're not I don't believe they're saying gee the frocking is pardon the paraphrasing but saved our ass like I I really that statement that
• 61:00 - 61:30 you made of you know the fracking saving the US that's the kind of statement that gets people going saying we need to have fracking in order to have the oil flowing and uh and we all know the environmental detriment that fracking creates so I just I don't understand how you could say yes we need to go renewable but at the same time we have to have proing so I'm trying to
• 61:30 - 62:00 understand your statement I'm ambiguous ambivalent or whatever the word is both are correct these are simply facts I'm saying um I think the United States now with 30% the oil that it had uh 20 years ago would be in a very very tough situation um and Canada would probably suffer accordingly and so um that you know the problem is this here's
• 62:00 - 62:30 the real problem um is is that uh the only thing worse than running out of oil is not running out of oil um I don't think we can probably run a big turning the world upside down environmentally uh e industrial economy on Renewables I just don't think we can do it but let's say we can um to me always I look forward as an ecologist as
• 62:30 - 63:00 let's say as an environmentalist ecologist I don't care but as an environmentalist which is a public private citizen I am uh I thought the only way we're going to be able to stop the destruction of the earth is running out of oil and gas and um I was expecting that to happen about 2005 and uh or the beginning peak oil now it's taken a little
• 63:00 - 63:30 longer now that is both bad for the environment because we continue growth and we continue grinding up everything else and over fishing our fisheries and so forth and so on how can you overfish Fisheries if you don't have any oil um so but what would that do for our 8 billion humans it would be a pretty difficult transition uh so I don't have a position like my
• 63:30 - 64:00 students say why don't you take a position and tell us what we should do I'm not going to do that I'm just pointing out as a scientist and that's my main hat um what I think I understand about the world then other people aren't talking about now we will run out of fract oil I don't know how fast but art Burman who knows more about it than anybody says pretty soon or at least reach Peak fra oil and and uh Jean L's
• 64:00 - 64:30 analysis indicate pretty soon and then that's a whole new ball game and we're totally unprepared for it and it's going to be very very difficult because every politician in my country and I suspect yours too runs on policies of more and more means more oil and more health care more houses more for the homeless more money for everybody more trinkets
• 64:30 - 65:00 under the Christmas tree whatever it is the politicians are promising every single one of those things requires more oil more education more Health Care More all the good things and all the bad things more rocket ships for Elon Musk whatever more Wars all of that requires more oil um and how are we going to do that if we have less oil you've got a bigger
• 65:00 - 65:30 problem in Canada because you you're running out of conventional oil but you got all this huge very environmentally bad low ERI tar sends and I I would put my money on I bet you're going to use it [Music] yep thank you we're now um John Meyer and you'll be followed uh by Steve yeah okay hi Charlie good to see you John uh
• 65:30 - 66:00 ERI I I pushed this uh lever before but e ERI is a critical National societal well-being overview metric as far as I'm concerned but it should be uh made more relevant finally tuned to Regional realities and in the north because of the uh very heavy demands of energy that we have to live here it's not all massive of SUVs it's uh heating systems and insulated houses and increased cost
• 66:00 - 66:30 of Transport etc etc we simply need more energy and uh compared to some place uh down south which doesn't need a heating system uh and I I mean basically it works out if you take the extreme of Inuvik uh and running on a solar system and batteries uh compared to uh uh the uh uh system uh Energy System you'd have to have in guad laara Mexico uh it's almost
• 66:30 - 67:00 a thousand times uh more expensive to set up the infrastructure uh for life in the extreme north than it is in uh very uh very moderate very warm constantly warm temperatures where you don't need storage of any kind really uh and so is anyone working on this uh besides me uh with a some kind of unified metric
• 67:00 - 67:30 that's going to illustrate uh the different circumstances of different uh uh uh different areas of the the globe well first of all I'm in Los Angeles right now visiting relatives and I don't believe that we use less energy per capita than in Los Angeles and innovic I mean I just terrifies me to get on the road here uh and and I came down from Southern Oregon where I live
• 67:30 - 68:00 on a four-lane highway six Lane off and and it was just like a parking lot the whole way absolutely Bumper to Bumper with cars over our Thanksgiving so I do I believe that voluntary shrinkage is likely I don't see any signs of that uh absolutely not and I and read the jet read the U maximum power piece that John Ruben or whoever art will be sending out uh and that's a whole another argument
• 68:00 - 68:30 that comes from an evolutionary perspective which is my main perspective is as a biologist as an ecologist but um and I've I'm working now with people in guadalahara uh and that's the last foreign travel I took I don't like to travel anymore since I'm 81 but um the it's it's practic it's doing its has to be Los Angeles and building as much uh there's Ford plants and whatever else
• 68:30 - 69:00 down there um all these American uh Kimberly Clark and making our diapers and whatever down there and so in guadalahara and all I see is expansion um and so I don't know what the the Inuits are doing but uh you know they did okay on solar energy for a long time yeah that's right solar embodied in fish but and seals but the uh the the basis of my figures is the U of the
• 69:00 - 69:30 house uh and the uh the figure I use I I know you hate kilowatt hours but that's the real world figure not the scientific beloved figure of jewels uh but I'll stick despite all the you know the uh disparaging comments you might throw at me I'll stick with kilowatt hours uh because that's what you fill your car up with uh but in the in the north uh the budget uh is probably about 60 kilowatt hours per day that's a very mild figure
• 69:30 - 70:00 very conservative figure in the north and electricity I use at my house yeah and and maybe two versus one or two kilowatt hours a day in guadalahara Plus in the north you need uh three or four a month storage which is immensely expensive into the millions of dollars so that's that's the the figure the storage is a killer in the north well that's why you need seals
• 70:00 - 70:30 that that's right in Wales big things big things are in the north because the surface volume ratio is favorable yeah that's right big oily things but anyway okay good thank great Charlie bye H Steve CTS are you still here I I think Steve had to go and so he's got a question that you've touched on Charlie but uh you may want to add to uh and
• 70:30 - 71:00 that is Steve question is is it the case it sounds as if you see at some point that this culture is going to simplify one way or another and that it will likely be involuntary rather than voluntary well that I would I that you know and the this being the I think sixth time I've seen that film the thing
• 71:00 - 71:30 that impressed me this time was all the politicians think it's their choice whatever it is that we're going to do and I don't think it's our choice you know in nature and depletion and disease and whatever the hell is is probably going to decide our future um and do you know I don't think there's all kinds of uh we had uh uh Brian cheze was here earlier he's got a degrowth society but you know I think
• 71:30 - 72:00 the progrowth society is a thousand times more people in it than the de Society so I think we're just going to keep doing our damnedest to to get as much energy as possible now the one good thing and somebody said I didn't talk about the PW the population now I figured this all out when I was 20 22 years old and I had no children as a consequence and that's the only environmentally virtuous thing I think
• 72:00 - 72:30 that I've particularly done I've used as much jet fuel as probably most people on this uh meeting but in the name of ecology of course or whatever the hell it was but um the uh that's the only good news but you know we maybe will stabilize but you know I think the world has maybe 10 or 20 times more people than it can Poss long-term sustain at today's level um let alone uh let alone any
• 72:30 - 73:00 possible increase so um I so there I mentioned population I think is really important I don't think any of the REM if you reduce the population what that means is that there's more resources left per capita and they'll probably use more per capita so that that at least and I think uh Richard or somebody made a good point that uh um you know you can have a
• 73:00 - 73:30 better quality of life in which we'd like to have a reasonable quality of life um it was some oilman who made the point that uh you know I have so many xdx billion dollars that I make from oil but my lifestyle is no different from somebody who makes 200,000 a year you don't get anything you can't eat anymore or any better or whatever with with and
• 73:30 - 74:00 it's just vanity of of people like Elon Musk and whoever the Canadian equivalent is and whatever that that's driving so much of this it's just stupid it so we got to have a big antiv vanity campaign but I'm not going to do it I don't know if I answered that anything but any anybody have a better question than I coming up with we'll we'll carry on uh recck
• 74:00 - 74:30 Monroe are you still here and if so would you yeah hi um yeah thank you Charlie um a pretty quick question um are you aware of any um study by your government by the US federal government or or a state government for that matter which examines what I would or we think we would all view as the contradiction between the the goals of economic growth
• 74:30 - 75:00 as opposed to biophysical limits and the goal of preserving the environment and I don't mean sort of the usual government blather about the need for sustainable development what I'm wondering is whether anybody that you're aware of has ever done an in-depth analysis of uh consumption and how we push consumption and the generation of waste and the long-term implications of that are you aware of any study well unfortunately Bill Reese
• 75:00 - 75:30 isn't here but I just I'm answering your question indirectly then I'm gonna answer it directly um I just spent on my way down here spent the night with uh Mattis Walker Nagle who was Bill Reese's colleague and they developed the ecological footprint and he just got a Nobel Prize equivalent and welld deserved for all the work he's done on ecological Footprints and uh but he and
• 75:30 - 76:00 I and we're thinking of writing a paper on this uh have both said you know all the work I've done on Footprints all the work you've done in energy return on investment in biophysical economics has not changed the course of the Queen Mary one inch um we we both we we both said you know that all the work that we've done and all the acceptance especially
• 76:00 - 76:30 he's had uh on footprint he and Reese um all of this work has made zero as far as we can tell impact on anything except for you know each other and scientists and you know maybe a few thousand people are interested in these things so so to am I aware of any study well I mean there's all these footprint studies is all kinds of studies that
• 76:30 - 77:00 show that there's a tradeoff between growth and environmental policy and every time I hear the word green I cringe Run for Cover because if you follow the energy you're it's like people who talk about taking carbon out of the air with machines now the machines always emit more carbon than the carbon you take out of the air you've got to do a systems analysis of whatever it is that you're talking about
• 77:00 - 77:30 and I hardly know you know green growth is an oxymoron etc etc so to answer your question yes I know lots of studies that have shown there's a tradeoff between um economic activity and the use of resources and and maybe the maybe the footprint analyses are as good as any um but I don't know any that have made any difference in policy or in especially
• 77:30 - 78:00 implementation now I say to the world prove me wrong and I'd be happy to be proven wrong um but I know I don't have an answer for you okay no and I I mean I'm aware of all sorts of studies including your work and so on and Bill ree's but I meant a government study like a presidential Council some um Department of energy and commerce getting together to do a joint study analyzing the the effects
• 78:00 - 78:30 the long-term effects of pursuing economic growth have you ever heard of such a study by anybody by at the government da Commission in 1950 be looked at it uh the py commission um but you know they looked at will there be enough energy in the future Admiral Heyman Rick over is a real smart guy he understood that in Oregon where I live uh Governor McCall did uh and tried to implement
• 78:30 - 79:00 various changes he was way ahead at the time and he was a republican too um but uh you listen how do you run for for a political party in your country or mind on a policy of restricted growth everything is more and and what's killing me about my countrymen in in this year I mean we're
• 79:00 - 79:30 doing better than almost everywhere in the world in terms of inflation in terms of growth of uh paychecks growth of paychecks relative to inflation uh all kinds of indices now it's true you're go in the grocery store it's shocking but you know when I was a kid doing my paper root an ice cream cone was was 5 cents and um people talk about inflation
• 79:30 - 80:00 you know come on get over here inflation's always here and uh it will get worse real inflation is likely to get a lot worse as depletion becomes ever more important so um do I have an answer for you um I'm glad you mentioned Rick over I'd forgotten about him he was wonderful yeah yeah yeah he he really understood energy and he wrote about it in a very
• 80:00 - 80:30 very good way back in 1950s and so I mean it's bloody obvious it's you know you don't to understand the things that I'm talking about you can explain it to somebody in the fifth grade um you know if you if you eat up your um candies uh this morning you won't have them this afternoon in the fast you eat them the faster you're gonna run out unless daddy comes in with some
• 80:30 - 81:00 more thank you here's a movie star my dog has come to visit me well hey you 40 dogs have been part of the picture um yeah we've already had them okay is um I don't see another hand I want to ask you and uh it it may just return in a sense to the same
• 81:00 - 81:30 place um that what I hear you saying is that uh you don't see any way that what our modern if we characterize what what our modern consumption based culture uh can continue uh on its present basis and that limits are necessary and you said particularly
• 81:30 - 82:00 self-restraint and I'm wondering whether you've done any work or know of people who've done work literally asking it as an empirical question is it possible to develop a societal wide basis for self-restraint in a modern consumer culture the work I've done suggest the answer to that is no but I'm wondering what you've done in that space or no of
• 82:00 - 82:30 other people well first of all as a scientist I have to say I don't know I I mean if you if you watch this whole energy Horizon thing and please everybody I recommend you watch it and I recommend that you ask your local what is it CBC um to your local Canadian to to play it um that would [Music] be there's a lot of optimistic people
• 82:30 - 83:00 there now but when you got what the killer turned out to be is not in my backyard and it turned out that I thought the most optimistic energy thing was offshore wind and I was getting excited that's I think the third or something presentation and and I think they slipped this in right at the end that since they recorded it the uh the tribes where the cable was coming on Shore nixed it and so it's dead all the
• 83:00 - 83:30 investors have left so what I thought was maybe the most promising uh because the offshore winds are relatively constant um has been nixed so uh but you know as a scientist I don't know whether we can do that or not and there's so many imponderables in the future and so many as an ecologist so so
• 83:30 - 84:00 many things that we don't understand about you know decreasing biodiversity and plagues and God knows whatever else that that's might be sitting around the corner so um not to mention you know horrible Wars and whatever so uh there's a lot of hands going up so get some more speakers in here what I I need to ask um uh Raymond if if you could ask a question it may be the last question but then uh after the
• 84:00 - 84:30 the the formal recording stops we'll be into uh a more informal conversation so if you don't get to ask your question uh while the recording's on um we'll hang around and you'll get a chance to do it um soond fire away thanks Ruben I actually posted the question in the chat but uh so uh so Charlie um and we've had
• 84:30 - 85:00 the discussions about this before but I I'd like to get your your feedback on it so you know if you look at transmission lines we use aluminum uh even though copper would be better why do we use aluminum it's because overall it's cheaper for us to do it that way right uh same thing with electric motors the windings could be done with aluminum and not copper so yes there's an issue with extra use of copper but there's ways to work around that uh so what are your thoughts about our ability to do that with with all of the other uh critical
• 85:00 - 85:30 materials that we have uh that that are essential for the um you know these green technologies well everybody asks about technology as if it's always goes forward but for example one thing I like about ERI is it's a balance between technological progress and depletion that that you understand that in in for oil in the United States except for fracking the the answer is that that depletion is winning relative
• 85:30 - 86:00 to technology and that applies Ray to to everything that you ask you can do it but can you do it with the net energy delivered to society as much as we have from oil and the an and gas and the answer is I don't know um but we don't have anybody thinking this way we don't have any government agencies modeling this way in the United States we don't even get the
• 86:00 - 86:30 quality of the data but at all anything like we were getting in 1970 when I started doing Roi you could get beautiful data from the bureau census that would allow us to do I think and very good studies and they'd even have you know plus or minus values for what they had they even had statistical estimates and now you can't you can't even get drilling records you can't you can't get how much easily at least I
• 86:30 - 87:00 can't get the energy that's being used um by the energy society and not in a way that makes sense to how I need to use it and so I I don't have a good ERI now for the US oil industry Adam brand at Stanford's doing some good stuff I'm not quite sure how he pulls it off and I'd like to say in Praise of Canada statistics Canada which I from South of the Border looks much
• 87:00 - 87:30 better than ours um is that they have what's called IO analyses that's what we really need energy IO analyses and Canada does it uh or you was doing it very recently when the US was not so uh where am I going with this answer Ray yeah well part of part of the thing I've been saying is uh as technology progresses the return on energy gets better for wind and solar right so um so
• 87:30 - 88:00 you know all maybe there's a beautiful study by David Murphy and Jed dorer um that's at the the biophysical economics Institute BP go go www.bp institute.org and and uh or just email me C Hall cf.edu and I'll send it to you a very
• 88:00 - 88:30 good analysis of what happens when you when renewable penetration is greater than 5% into electrical um systems it it it sends the balancing of load uh Haywire just screws it up completely and when you're talking about these AI machines artificial intelligence machine their their use of energy is increasing exponentially javon's Paradox and
• 88:30 - 89:00 they're they're moving it to mon to Oregon because we've got this cheap Columbia River electricity um it's crazy so the answer is Ray the the first 5% of putting electricity into your renewable I'm sorry yes renewable electricity into your grid is easy but when it gets up to 15% you can't the man the electrical
• 89:00 - 89:30 load managers can't deal with it and it just knocks everything Haywire okay thanks so watch that and then we'll talk yeah I will follow up with you after okay thanks I'm sure you will right and that will finish the Q&A Charlie I'm sure there'll be lots of questions and comments if you can hang around for a while that would be great uh our chairman Ted Manning uh to have
• 89:30 - 90:00 the last word I'm not sure it's possible to have the last word Charlie you're a tough act to follow uh but yes these issues are ones that have kept everybody interested and definitely uh anxious to answer questions uh I would answer very quickly one uh aspect of what you talked about which is can you make people actually try to live within the limits of their
• 90:00 - 90:30 availability of energy and we are collecting success stories from a few places around the world and most are very tiny and most of them have avoided nimi and gone for it uh places like an island in the canaries which is 100% off grid and won't even let anybody bring a battery into the island uh there uh there is a community that we we know of uh locally in uh in the Mediterranean
• 90:30 - 91:00 that is trying to do the same thing people are prepared to try and change Lifestyles to achieve a sense of well-being that is perhaps different from a from one country to another because people think different things and have different values and some of you know we've been doing this thing with the club of Rome with a a joint group of about 25 around the world just documenting what works and what do do which may eventually become fodder for answering some of the questions that you've been able to raise so I would
• 91:00 - 91:30 thank you very much for this it fits right in with what we're trying to shake and make happen and I would therefore thank you very much for talking to us and we definitely are going to ask you back again so that said uh we are now moving on to uh we're actually going into a new physical year here and just to warn those of you now we are going to a little get a little more pushy with regarding to get get people paying for
• 91:30 - 92:00 access to this we're over 220 things put out there free that our members have all bought into uh and we know that some of you have not been paying because we really have not been managing it well enough that will be changing in future for those of you are going to come to more than one of these please join us because that pays for it and it's about the only way of where we remain in business it's not free but it
• 92:00 - 92:30 is very effective and we are now up to several hundred people watching most of them once they get on onto YouTube so thank you all very much for coming and uh we're going to say uh please join us please subscribe and that will help us keep this happening we are the only uh debating Club in a sense on this stuff that's available and open to the widest
• 92:30 - 93:00 range of people in Canada and some of our guests from overseas so thank you again for coming and we will now turn off the recording and we can talk to each other and we can say the things that we might not have been able to say in front of the government