Dan Ives on PLTR, Elon Musk and "The Trade of 2025"

Summary

Highlights

• Dan Ives's consistent bullish view on tech stocks, including Tesla and Palantir, has proven successful. 📈
• The widespread adoption of AI and cloud computing is setting the stage for a global tech transformation. ☁️
• Regulatory adjustments, including potential legislative shifts, could significantly impact tech giants. 📜
• Tesla's integration into regulatory and political spaces could cement its position in the tech ecosystem. 🔗
• Advancements in AI products are expected to be transformative, affecting both consumer and enterprise sectors. 🤖

Key Takeaways

• Dan Ives remains bullish on Tesla and Palantir, emphasizing their potential despite Wall Street skepticism. 🚀
• The shift to AI and cloud technologies marks the beginning of a fourth industrial revolution, promising vast opportunities. 🤖
• Regulatory changes in the US, with potential policy shifts, could further propel big tech companies. 🏛️
• Tesla's strategic moves in politics may offer it a significant edge amid changing regulatory environments. ⚡
• AI and blockchain developments are expected to create substantial market shifts and investment opportunities. 📈

Overview

Dan Ives on PLTR, Elon Musk and "The Trade of 2025" Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 [Music] welcome to Market overtime I'm Oliver renck today's guest has been covering tech for over two decades but since the co area he's become a Bastion of unwavering bull market confidence of the 40 stocks he covers not a single has a sell rating you might call him a Perma bull but if you've faded his analysis you'd be Perma broke his staunch support for controversial Tech trades like Tesla
• 00:30 - 01:00 and paler despite an Entourage of haters has delivered an average 16% excess return over his peers according to Bloomberg data he's been so right that not only does he get away with the most flamboyant wardrobe on TV he's been lotted for it as wall Street's bestdressed man none other than Dan Ives is here with us from Market overtime the global head of Technology research at wed Bush Securities Dan great to have some of your time sir oh great to be here and thanks for the inurance appreciate it absolutely I wore my most extravagant pocket square for you I'm
• 01:00 - 01:30 touched seriously that is like that and but look I can't even pull off a pocket square so like but you but you but you can uh well we appreciate the time we've got a lot of good stuff to talk about uh you got a new role too uh so Global I mean you're moving around the world too right now so how does it change the way you view things or any additional scope for how we should think about your coverage yeah I think it's more scope I mean in terms of coverage I mean expands a little but I think the big thing is is just having more coverage especially
• 01:30 - 02:00 when it comes to Asia China and some of the other parts of of the world we along with our team here at web Bush does uh do those markets stand any chance next to us big Tech Dan uh how much real kind of potential variance arises between the US leadership versus the rest of the world in the new Administration yeah let's go look I mean us I think strong get stronger so I I actually think that's something that's even just more of an accelerate but but but I do think
• 02:00 - 02:30 those markets it's enabled us to maybe get an edge when it comes to supply chain and just brought some of the demand that's going on within Tech you know when you think about what's happening across Asia across Vietnam Malaysia and others but look I think under Trump I mean this is a Cinderella story for big Tech regulation essentially gets defanged more deal making musk with a you know Big C at the table it's very very bullish a big Tech
• 02:30 - 03:00 uh how much of it is new narrative how much of is just kind of a cherry on top if we stretch the timeline back basically it seems like uh for a proper big Tech conversation we got to go back to basically covid it seems like kind of the fertile soil that began a lot of this latest uh thematic movement uh take me through that Dan because it feels like if we rewind the clock a little bit we get some answers as to when this started which is when we're dumping money and cutting rates basically right
• 03:00 - 03:30 well no I mean like and look me and you talked you know throughout many of the years and I think it was the start of a cenal a New Foundation you know when you think about what happened in Tech you could say some of them like zoom and and and some of the sort of covid names that obviously started to come down you know once lockdowns and everything came out but from a from a shift to the cloud hyperscale foundational I mean that's really the start of what I view is almost a 10 year cycle and I think we're
• 03:30 - 04:00 only kind of 3 four years into it and then I think what changed everything was the combination of what we've seen from Godfather of AI Jensen Nidia gpus going back 2022 what we saw from open Ai and of course Microsoft and that combined is essentially creating a fourth Industrial Revolution when you think about AI how much do you think about CO as a catalyst uh in the way it forced businesses to adopt technology at the time and my
• 04:00 - 04:30 newsletter I wrote it as a time machine that Co basically sort of opened a portal if you will to this future demand that was going to get there eventually but kind of fast forward it to your point about some of the one-off things that fizzled but then it also did uh really Usher us into this new age it seems like oh no doubt I mean I think that I think that that Nails it in terms of what It ultimately did because it accelerated the ship to the cloud I mean like when you start Co let's call March 2020 you had about 30% of workloads in
• 04:30 - 05:00 the cloud today we're about almost 50% and going to 75% so it just shows what ultimately happened there aliver is that the we're talking about the beginning of what was ultimately now trillion of capex dollars toward Tech that's why big Tech continues to get bigger mag 7 everything else and that's not stopping especially with regulatory essentially defang you know Trump Administration
• 05:00 - 05:30 Khan will be out at the FTC and others so this is going to be a really golden age for for big Tech uh I do want to talk about how things are changing on the margin and at the risk of zooming out too far but kind of the one other point there uh Dan on the origins of this is how much do you think kind of the just whole system was proven out the way we lowered rates we put money into Capital markets for anyone who kind of doubts that uh Prosperity stems from innov
• 05:30 - 06:00 can we attribute some of this to the money that was injected into the economy to get these ideas flowing right isn't that like how Tech revolutions happen of course that's how that's how revolutions happen I mean it goes back no different than you could go back to when I covered Tex out financial crisis and tarp and everything else that created the next level of innovation from 2010 to probably 2016 2017 that's how the system works how it should work and I think when you look at
• 06:00 - 06:30 essentially you know fed engineering Pillsbury d boy soft landing and that's why a lot of times the Bears you know they sound smart with their spreadsheets and valuations but they've missed every transformational Techni in the last 15 years uh okay so then where we're at right now do we need any additional economic stimuli or are the wheels and the gears kind of turning them elves now that we've had the AI and
• 06:30 - 07:00 the uh breakthrough from Nvidia particularly on powering all this stuff uh how much is kind of self-moving now Dan I think 50% self-moving 50% you still need and that's why like lowering of taxes deregulation essentially when you know when it comes to KH FTC Gan and others I think when it comes to where money is being spent inflation reduction act that's going to be massively shifted I think musk is going to play a huge
• 07:00 - 07:30 role there it's not necessarily kind of like the red tape poster Childs like in Intel it's going to be much more focused on the AI I think hyperscale is going to benefit the likes Amazon Microsoft Google paler and others look I think the reality is is that we are on the cusp of really an unprecedented Revolution but that's what when you combine that with Trump getting in a red sweep It's A Cinderella Story for big Tech
• 07:30 - 08:00 and I think that's why we've even seen that significant rally since Trump got in Dan how would you score the current AI product offerings we obviously know there's all this trillion doll CeX happening in terms of consumer product and I I guess business product too would be a fine answer but when I think about like the existing consumer stuff uh Google Gemini on on Google phones Apple Intelligence coming Microsoft co-pilot obviously the chat PT functions and such
• 08:00 - 08:30 that some are uh now generating Revenue how would you score the quality of our AI output so far in terms of product I think it's jaw dropp I mean I see more from the likes of pound tier we see from Oracle Microsoft I think enterprise Enterprise now Enterprise is where consumer get the popcorn out I mean the point is like this has just started the consumer Revolution will ultimately go through Apple iPhone 16 iPhone 17 everything that we're seeing with Apple elligence
• 08:30 - 09:00 but that's why it's not just about mag 7 this is the second third fourth derivatives about to play out across software across cyber security across infrastructure across consumer Tech and I think that's where now it's setting up for you know over the coming years uh the hardware versus software trade-off has been so Stark uh but it seems like now that has shifted a little bit to your point in the last couple months Salesforce breaking out to highs the
• 09:00 - 09:30 cloud complex coming back a group that had been lagging significantly compared to all the big Hardware build out is that going to be uh as broad of an AI lift or will we see again winners uh and disruptors in the space uh how specific do you think that gets like business to business I think 2025 software is going to be the trade because the second third derivatives of everything playing out
• 09:30 - 10:00 Styles Force service now Oracle workday and other Adobe now the use case starts to play out that's why paler is clearly the mess of AI which been early sort of leader there so I think now as it goes from kind of the capex build out now we start see use cases and that's going to benefit software the other thing is deal making is going to accelerate with cond dun so that's going to be also bullish for software SASS and a lot of these
• 10:00 - 10:30 names that maybe have underperformed MH that one's a big one I mean if there was one real economic or policy Hallmark of this Administration it's probably the FTC and the antitrust stuff so I mean that's got to be a huge one removed already for at least a premium applied to some of these stocks if you know to your point KH is removed oh I mean there I think there's a better chance of me playing in in the NFL than her not uh you know not being removed at the FTC and I think ultimately look that's what big Tech
• 10:30 - 11:00 needs to see you can't have this spiderweb of regulatory as we're going through a fourth Industrial Revolution Trump comes in red sweep now you see all those agencies essentially defang from crypto you know to obviously FTC and others and that look if you're a tech bull that's drinking Rosé you know lopster one of the areas as you mentioned it uh as a brief aside before I come back to some of the uh a big overarching stuff is in your coverage
• 11:00 - 11:30 there's not a lot of like blockchain crypto related stuff uh and generally you haven't spoken too much on that compared to the equities I know part of that is just your background in equities but what is your feeling on that as uh as I mentioned obviously you know a stalwart of bullish themes in general sure yeah and obviously like you know and Tom Lee and others have talked about from a Bitcoin perspective I think now regulatory that gets thrown out you have to be bullish on bitcoin and overall
• 11:30 - 12:00 crypto because I think the other that's going to happen over the next three six nine months I think a big thing that you're going to see more and more companies that maybe were not going to invest in Bitcoin or crypto now will you're going to see more and more of their cash going toward that given the regulatory framework has dramatically changed so I think that's something that just speaks to just a broader view of where we're heading that's good for crypto it's good for big Tech and I
• 12:00 - 12:30 think we're you know we're in our opinion going into what's probably going to be a bull market that lasts through the end of 2026 Dan what do you see as uh having greater technical prowess or productivity prowess the blockchain or the AI stuff how do you compare those two look I think blockchain is still more of a derivative of cloud and as we see in software and then that's all going to play and and that's probably
• 12:30 - 13:00 going to be a maybe like a slower build out but still very strong in ter from a blockchain perspective AI is gonna be it's parabolic like if you if you looked at an AI versus a blockchain I mean AI is meteor yeah because because of the cap back because remember you had 500 billion of cap back just related to tax that's not even related to sovereigns other companies and everyone else starting to play and you could say
• 13:00 - 13:30 together that could be trillion and a half two trillion of cap backs just for AI yeah uh then again I don't want to get too far outside your coverage because I you don't cover like the fintech stuff at least some you know the the crypto heavy ones uh but it just kind of seems like when we've gone through this investment cycle in the last uh you know we we had sort of this blockchain investment cycle when you think about allocators like these big tech companies I imagine it's going to skew super hard to AI or is there a feedback mechanism of crypto price that
• 13:30 - 14:00 just uh you know brings interest or all these big tech companies just full on AI I think full on AI but crypto I mean I'm not not necessarily A S as dramatic as that but you will start to see crypto start to become you know more in the vocabulary especially as the regulatory environment is so dramatically changed and these companies say look you have over a trillion dollars of cash from Big Tech you know in terms of where that all
• 14:00 - 14:30 sits uh thinking about the big hyperscalers that have led us Dan what do they need to show here over the next couple months uh how their Investments are paying off uh can they get a free because I think about Microsoft last quarter it looked like it stopped kind of getting a free pass a little bit by the market on the C back stuff but then obviously you've got others that are closer to highs um but then you've got like a kind of spread opening up a little bit where alphabet Microsoft seem like uh the market now maybe needs some
• 14:30 - 15:00 fresh justification well I think the difference is is that it's not just about Microsoft look at we've talked about Google some of the parts I mean the Google clouds I think now accelerating that's a huge part of the alphet story at AWS as well but it's not a zero some game I if you look at Microsoft Azure growth is I believe it trops out and then actually accelerates by mid 30% so as this all plays out this
• 15:00 - 15:30 is just the start of the hyperscalers showing the growth that I think actually most of that is ahead of us not behind us I think on Microsoft investors maybe the stock got a little tired we'll call it like that little hyperfocus lot of downgrades but Microsoft we're we're only halfway through this cycle in Redman uh what type of valuations do you think are possible here Dan I mean Microsoft and Apple both trading above 30 times
• 15:30 - 16:00 forward for very profitable businesses that is an expensive valuation uh granted the quality of these stocks is like you know has always been there valuation wise we're up there like at the highest of highs sure and I think I continue to say the Bears when they're in their caves and hibernation mode they can't find in their spreadsheets Ai and I think the difference is is that you have to sum of the parts these names in terms of ultimately what will Microsoft
• 16:00 - 16:30 look like as AI scales over the next two three four years what does oracle look like what is the Google piece from some of the parts I'd argue the same for Apple in terms of what that AI piece is that's been my argument with Tesla as well you have to factor the AI and look out next three five years what the valuation is there and I I like look my whole thing is just covering Tech 25 years so many investors that I've talked to have missed every trans AAL Trend every transformational big Tech name
• 16:30 - 17:00 because they're laser focus in the 10th FL New York city office building in their spreadsheets part of For Me 3 million air miles 20 years later by seeing the world you have a different perspective where a lot of investors they don't see that they they can find AI in in those spreadsheets uh some I guess it's like trying to find a God uh tell me Dan what you're like you know that Meme where it's says if something would have changed uh this is what
• 17:00 - 17:30 Society could be like and it's like a vision of like this future you know Metropolis this incredible Society what's the uh what's the Dan Ives uh Vision what does it look like so I think um called five seven years so let's just call it toward the end of the decade I think 10 to 15% of ride Shares are autonomous I think you're going to have flying taxis so in other words I think you'll I mean we'll start to see some of that demo Joby and others 2028 La
• 17:30 - 18:00 Olympics but I think you're going to transportation's going to massively change I think you're going to have think about Vision Pro today but almost as sunglasses similar as meta so I think you're going to see people will be walking around with doing with sunglasses where their their phones they'll be able to actually see as they're actually walking I'm just trying to give you like some I also think robotics I think many households are going to
• 18:00 - 18:30 have robots that are AI driven robots in their house now if you about Optimus and others I that's just the sneak peek to where I see it where you're at work right now and you're robot is home walking the dog doing the wash I like it so it's like it's pretty much Jetson's right like we're gonna that's our basine we need to go through there and just invest no no no I but I I don't think we're way off like if you
• 18:30 - 19:00 talk about Jetson from a Jetson's type at least the early parts of it starting to form over the next like five seven I also think like you're gonna have things like space travel obviously so expensive today I think as you look out next five 10 years like that's going to be something that will actually start to be affordable where you could go to space for a day or two and it's not going to be just for like the Uber wealing Dana is there a um way to when you talk
• 19:00 - 19:30 about the global side of before we bring it back home I think the two most important stocks you cover from the global side is there an underappreciated way to play this or how much does that depend on the policy stuff we started talking about at the beginning I think it's policy Stu I mean to me I'm still more a Believer like I stick with my winners the names that we do all the work on those continue to be the ways to play it I do think that from a policy perspective the China tarff that would clearly you know be a sort of
• 19:30 - 20:00 noisy issue but I think when it's all said and done musk is going to have a huge seat at that table and there's probably likely going to be carve outs for Tesla apple and probably a lot of the supply chain players like canid okay so Tesla uh look no question foot in the door at the White House I mean more than a foot obviously is a big deal an office at the White House exactly right yeah actual role uh is worth premium in a stock it seems without question
• 20:00 - 20:30 especially for a stock whose premium was eroded based on Persona and character so first take the Victory lap I guess real quick on defending musk's uh multitasking skills yeah look um this was the a bet for the ages for musk I mean musk betting on Trump is going to change the whole landscape for Tesa autonomous AI regulatory I think while that gets m accelerated EV tax credits get pulled
• 20:30 - 21:00 probably in January that's negative for the industry negative for Detroit remember mus when it came to Biden Administration even Obama on the outside looking in right now Trump Administration huge SE at the table going to be very important when it comes to China tariffs lot of those discussions almost an AI Ambassador look I believe AI alone the autonomous piece is worth a trillion dollars alone Tesla stock mhm to my mind it's not it's um
• 21:00 - 21:30 something that feels like an inevitability uh the self-driving cars So like um and I don't dispute that at all or or you know your market cap assessment that's that's you what I'm one thing I'm thinking about now Dan though is is there any worry in your mind that it gets sketchy at all if Elon starts self-dealing in a way from the White House like I mean I guess he's got the Mandate right now which is fine but does any of that backfire open him up at all you know if he starts giving himself
• 21:30 - 22:00 or removing credits Etc like or is the market not just thinking that anybody's going to check them on that stuff look I think it's a new world right and I think um you know the rules that may I mean I I they must goes to a different set of rules and I think as it all plays out as we're seeing this is going to it could have some bumps in the road but I don't see how this is all going to change there I think autonomous is going to get
• 22:00 - 22:30 significantly FASTT tracked the AI piece is going to get fast tracked and that's bullet look the poster Tri who's going to benefit here is going to be is going to be musk cont Tessa what about um the angle uh from Tesla with the credits one thing I've heard is that if they remove credits then the Lesser peers uh struggle more and that I mean that one seems like there's a few leaps of logic there well removing the the credits is negative for the EV industry negative
• 22:30 - 23:00 for Detroit 313 ARA could bullish for Tesla because they have the scale and scope that's unmatched they make profits on a $335,000 car $110,000 you look at the the tax credits was essentially given even playing field to give affordable cars to some of these new entrance that's out yeah that's bullish for Tesla okay so you're saying basically like AR rivan I don't know the name names or I mean like some the companies they're losing a ton on their vehicles basically will have to like cease operations but also rivan's a
• 23:00 - 23:30 high-end consumer they're not focused on tax credits like we're talking about you're talking have vehicles in the 35 40,000 hour range look at GM for GM has 10 12 Vehicles come out you take the you take the credit out it's a game changer and guess what musk musk is almost like wasn't invited to the party for eight years that being the White House party it's all about Detroit bar GM totally
• 23:30 - 24:00 Biden UAW now all of a sudden they come to his house and he's sitting there in marago that's not a good situation for uh for GM but GM and Ford they can still afford me I don't know about Ford GM seems like in a good position to generally still be able to produce the cars they'll just do them in a lesser margin though so it's not like the cars come off the market by the way one of your best calls has been bullish on GM and we're bullish on GM and look I could argue you investors almost want to see
• 24:00 - 24:30 that they want to see GM be like hey why you tone down with all the EV you know the EV sort of transformation go toward hybrid so the irony is that this almost gives GM a excuse toas maybe tone it down which is bullish for the stock all right fair enough uh hey uh Dan let's talk palen here I think this one's uh arguably the most interesting of all of them kind of a stock that was early on shrouded in
• 24:30 - 25:00 mystery apart from those sort of in the no and it feels like Wall Street is distinctly still out of the no because uh the rating coverage on this is I've never really seen anything like it uh not only just the bearishness and the neutrality which generally is not the way Wall Street analysts work they're generally more positive than than neutral or negative but the fact that the stock has been making highs breaking out trending higher for months uh it's like some of these people don't have charts what's going on uh and by the way
• 25:00 - 25:30 I think this is your biggest outperformance even more so than Tesla according to how long you've been bullish in your price targets look uh the analyst if you don't spoon feed them and they don't put you know karp is not someone and in the paler story they're focused on their Vision the a the analysts I think institutions have gotten this so wrong like I would actually say in 25 years I've seen many names that were kind of mischaracterized right maybe the streak got wrong I think
• 25:30 - 26:00 this is probably I've never seen a name more misunderstood by the street and probably you know one of the biggest misses than the messy of AI pound here because look I just think many viewed as Government three wter agency it's car the reality is that it's some of the most Innovative technology in the world in terms of what paler done it was just a matter of them starting to take that from government focused toward
• 26:00 - 26:30 Enterprise and now what you look what they've done they've essentially they've become the artery for Enterprise Ai and I I think this is another one where retail just like Tesla was way ahead of institutional when it came to pounder and that's how the stock went from a junior it went from a Junior High School uh you know individual to a senior citizen as a
• 26:30 - 27:00 stock uh but it's uh it's it's we're not putting it out to pasture this has just begun yeah we are we are in it's 10 pm in the AI party that goes to 400 a.m. and right in the middle of that dance for it's carp and paler all right uh it's like that Meme again of uh you know everybody dancing and the uh paler analysts in the Corner nobody knows my cash flow analysis you know
• 27:00 - 27:30 like but actually again no because like they're they're sitting there and they're like I where's the AI can't find it on my spreadsheet it's the problem uh the stock uh has been doing it on huge Revenue growth valuations obviously Skyhigh um do they need to deliver any more to the bottom line than they already are because the free cash flow is picking up free cash flow is the key because now you're going to look billion and free C when does that be three four billion P teers one you have to look out
• 27:30 - 28:00 next four or five years I mean Albert this is essentially this is a new story being built when it comes to AIP and it comes to the paler Enterprise piece that's not being factored into the stock now it's started to get factor in but I could argue like when you look at half a billion you know like you know in terms like where we've kind of gone you ultimately look at like the trajectory here I mean we could start to be looking at 4 billion 400 billion 500 billion
• 28:00 - 28:30 could this be a trillion dollar valuation if they continue to execute that's not out of the realm right good stuff uh love the vision of the future Dan thanks for your time fun stuff glad we got through a lot and like to uh back it up to figure out the sources of uh this big theme and congrats on uh being W and ahead of uh the vast majority too no thanks for being here and you do such a great job it's so awesome to be here with you thank you Dan appreciate that very much thanks Dan IES managing director Global head of Technology
• 28:30 - 29:00 research at wedbush Securities on the future of the Jetson's economy thanks for joining Market overtime don't forget to subscribe to us on YouTube watch other episodes of overtime and 24/7 of course at Schwab network.com [Music]