Everything You Know About Overpopulation Is Wrong | Stephen Shaw

Summary

In this compelling talk, Stephen Shaw challenges the common perceptions surrounding overpopulation, arguing that the real crisis lies in declining birth rates and increasing childlessness worldwide. He highlights the demographic challenges faced by industrialized nations and points to a significant 'birth gap' affecting countries like Italy, Japan, and South Korea. Shaw emphasizes that efforts to empower women in education and the workforce have inadvertently contributed to delayed parenting, which poses a threat to societal structures as populations age. The talk concludes with a call for policies that support younger parenthood to ensure the continuation of civilizations.

Highlights

• Stephen Shaw debunks common overpopulation myths, asserting the real crisis is declining birth rates 🌟
• A significant 'birth gap' affects many countries, leading to concerns about future workforce and economic stability 🤔
• Childlessness is on the rise globally, with many people delaying or opting out of parenthood altogether 🚫
• Countries like Italy face a looming demographic crisis with insufficient births to replace the aging workforce 📊
• Societal structures are threatened as aging populations increase, impacting pensions and healthcare systems 🚑

Key Takeaways

• Overpopulation myths: The real issue is declining birth rates, not overpopulation 🌍
• Birth Gap crisis: Countries face declining birth rates, leading to demographic challenges 📉
• Childlessness on the rise: A growing number of people are delaying or choosing not to have children 🚼
• Societal impact: Aging populations strain economic structures and social systems ⚠️
• Solutions needed: Support for younger parenthood can counteract demographic decline 🆕

Overview

In a world where overpopulation is often touted as a pressing concern, Stephen Shaw flips the narrative, highlighting that the real issue is declining birth rates. Through recent data and trends, Shaw reveals the complex demographic challenges facing countries worldwide, stressing that this trend is leading to a 'birth gap' that complicates societal and economic structures.

The talk sheds light on how increasing childlessness and delayed parenting are contributing to this demographic decline. Efforts to empower individuals in education and careers have inadvertently shifted priorities away from early parenthood, leading to an aging population and societal challenges these shifts bring. Shaw warns that many regions face severe economic and social repercussions if current trends persist.

To counteract these trends, Shaw calls for proactive policies that promote and support younger parenthood, drawing on successful examples like Hungary's incentives for early family planning. As he closes, Shaw emphasizes that without addressing these declining birth rates, civilizations risk dwindling under the weight of aging populations and reduced workforce capabilities.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:00: Introduction and Personal Reflection The chapter begins with a young Cambridge University student's personal reflection after being deeply impacted by a documentary. Haunting thoughts about the future prompted her to reach out, highlighting the emotional influence and personal resonance the film had. The narrative suggests themes of uncertainty and introspection, setting the stage for further exploration of the student's journey and the broader implications of the documentary's message.
• 01:00 - 02:30: Challenges of Modern Family Planning The chapter titled 'Challenges of Modern Family Planning' explores the emotional response of a woman who learns that a significant number of women turning 30 without children may never become mothers. The revelation angers her for two weeks, prompting reflective walks as she questions why she was unaware of this reality. She had always assumed that her life would follow a traditional path: meeting the right partner, starting a family around age 35, and having multiple children before reaching 40. The chapter delves into her grappling with this unexpected information and the societal expectations surrounding motherhood.
• 02:30 - 05:00: Global Population Trends The chapter discusses the global strides made in education and workforce empowerment over the past 50 years, highlighting the emphasis on equal educational opportunities for all, including daughters as much as sons. Despite these successes, the chapter suggests that there are significant areas where global society has not performed as well.
• 05:00 - 08:00: Birth Rates and Social Half Lives This chapter discusses societal shortcomings in preparing young adults for the balance between career establishment and family life. It highlights the issue of low birth rates and suggests this is partly due to society failing to guide young people on finding a life partner and beginning a family amid educational and career pursuits.
• 08:00 - 10:00: Current and Future Consequences of Declining Birth Rates The chapter dives into the critical issue of declining birth rates and its current and future implications on society. It begins with the author recounting an event at a Tokyo university where a British professor interrupted a lecture, raising the question of whether discussing population concerns with young people is appropriate. This incident underpins the broader societal debate on the topic.
• 10:00 - 15:00: Factors Contributing to Childlessness The chapter discusses the factors contributing to childlessness in modern societies. It starts by addressing common concerns about overpopulation, acknowledging that many people worry there are too many people in the world. The narrative sets the stage for a broader understanding of the demographic challenges facing nations and civilizations. The discussion is grounded in the current state of the world and its capacity to support a growing or declining population. While not delving into the debate about overpopulation directly, the chapter implies a connection between societal concerns about population size and personal decisions regarding childbearing.
• 15:00 - 18:00: Symmetrical Curve of Parenthood Age The chapter begins with an acknowledgment that the speaker is not an expert on the topic of population but notes that the Earth is dynamic and constantly changing. The discussion shifts to concerns about the population in India, highlighting that India has recently surpassed China as the world's most populous nation. Despite this, the speaker points to birth rate data in India, suggesting that births have actually peaked, indicating a potential stabilization or decrease in future population growth. This challenges some of the common fears associated with India's growing population.
• 18:00 - 20:00: Conclusion and Call to Action The chapter discusses India's demographic transformation over the past 25 years, highlighting a significant decline in birth rates. Specifically, births in India have decreased by 20%, and the country has become an aging nation. The majority of Indian states (32 out of 36) have a fertility rate below 2 children per woman, aligning with the global trend where 75% of countries are below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. The chapter emphasizes the rarity of reversing low fertility rates once they fall below replacement level, indicating a potential demographic shift with long-term implications.

Everything You Know About Overpopulation Is Wrong | Stephen Shaw Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 [Applause] I was haunted by the future I might not have those were the words from a young 25-year-old Cambridge University student after watching this documentary she contacted me a few weeks later
• 00:30 - 01:00 to explain that after hearing that no more than half of women turning 30 without a child ever become mothers she was angry for 2 weeks she went for walks thinking about why she didn't know this having plotted her entire life around assuming she' meet the right man or around age 35 and have a child or two or maybe three Before 40
• 01:00 - 01:30 we have done a great job about many things in our society and powerment of education for all my daughter's in the room I put as much effort into her education as her brothers empowerment in the workforce it's incredible what's happened over the last 50 years but we've been absolutely terrible at something
• 01:30 - 02:00 terrible societies as parents I'm putting my hand up terrible about explaining to young people that as they try to get the best Education and Training possible as they try to get established in their careers that somewhere along the way they also need to find the right person settle down and start a family there are a lot of question question about
• 02:00 - 02:30 population I get it all I was in a university in Tokyo two weeks ago lecturing to young Japanese students when a British Professor came in and heckled me saying we should not be talking to young people about population at all why is it that this topic has been become something that we should be guilty of in some context no this topic is destroying us destroying us as individuals as community ities and his
• 02:30 - 03:00 Nations oh and the civilizations too let's go through some questions that I get but aren't there too many people in the world some of you here today I know we thinking that maybe you're right to in a certain context I'm not here to debate that but let's look first what's actually happening in the world here it is our planet can it support the
• 03:00 - 03:30 people that are here today that's not my expertise but I know this planet isn't static this is a moving planet and things are changing very fast take India for example people are worried about population in India it overtook China recently to become the most populous nation on Earth and that worries people but let's look at the data births peaked in India
• 03:30 - 04:00 nearly 25 years ago births are down in India by 20% India has become an aging country 32 of 36 states in India are below 2.0 children per woman just like 75% of us live in countries below this replacement level and no country has ever been known to move the other way we use these numbers birth rates total fertility rates there are obscure numbers 1.6 sounds like 1.5
• 04:00 - 04:30 like 1.4 but no these numbers tell us how quickly births are going to half and then half again and then half again because this is exponential I like to convert these numbers into what I call social Half Lives you probably haven't seen this before but I think it's quite simple if we're just below replacement level which is around 2.1 children per women first would half every 800 years one notch
• 04:30 - 05:00 lower and that's down to 300 years one notch lower again 150 years well let's now look at where we are most industrialized nations are somewhere around 1.5 1.6 birs halfing schools happing every 50 years Japan China every 40 years and South Korea Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong births are happening every 20 years at current rates
• 05:00 - 05:30 but look how quickly this transformation can happen 35 years ago South Korea was at replacement level two children per woman in 35 years look what happened I'm going to try and pause it here because I want to explain for a moment the only way out of this birth rate crisis is to go back up that curve and you won't see a lot of benefit in the early days going from 1.2 to 1.3
• 05:30 - 06:00 won't change things a lot to 1.4 it's progress but unless you get back up to 1.8 1.92 your societies are fading away and that's mathematical let's look now at maybe the current consequences because this is still looking a little bit into into the future um if we look at for example countries like Italy
• 06:00 - 06:30 um one of the countries that worries me most in Europe today in Italy there are around 1 million people age 50 those people will will be retiring in around 20 years time who's going to replace them in the workforce yeah the economics comes into this it's important because our pensions are linked to it our healthare systems are linked to it when I created this chart there were around 500,000 births in in Italy to replace those people in
• 06:30 - 07:00 20 years time today it's less than 400,000 this is what I call the birth Gap the gap between the number of people to replace the workers to keep our societies functioning but this is Italy overall what I wanted to show was what's happening at a much more Regional level but 30 years ago green areas meant more babies than 50-year olds Germany had a problem Italy too at that time but look how it spread relentlessly across all of Europe very different
• 07:00 - 07:30 cultures but still in terms of different cultures Japan at the same time in the same time period over 30 years every prefecture in Japan now has what they call a birth Gap and South Korea the country I worry about most has a birth gap of 70% I have to say you know my thoughts are with Korea these days looking at the regional level parts of Italy Germany Spain have over 60% birth gaps and
• 07:30 - 08:00 people talk of Scandinavia having some great Solutions no this was 30 years ago even Scandinavia with its great policies for family and gender and whatever else look Denmark's got a 30% birth Gap this is global so the question I get aren't there too many people in the world that was yesterday's question it's not a good question because we're on the way down we're spiraling down as a planet and even in Africa mothers are having one
• 08:00 - 08:30 fewer child every 10 to 15 years this is global but why this is the next question but why are people having so few children why this is also another very good question because of course if overall not other not all mothers have two children some have one some have three and four some have 10 as we just found out from cathlyn Noak and some have none for differing reasons the only
• 08:30 - 09:00 way you can get a birth rate of less than two the only way is if those having zero or one outnumber those having more than two it's mathematical so if birth rates go down to 1.5 we must see some shift either to smaller families or to a larger number of childless people there's no other way it can be done as birth rates go down even further that ratio must shift further that's what I started to look at
• 09:00 - 09:30 and I started to look at the number of one child families across the world turns out they haven't changed very much in decades there's no real increase in most countries in one child families this is our world family structure stayed the same the only thing that changed is rapidly increasing childlessness 6% of mothers in Japan in 1970 were having four more children it's the same today mothers in the UK are having the same number of mothers
• 09:30 - 10:00 as 1970 this is what happened all apparently it seems linked to financial crisis in Europe the oil shock sudden high high childlessness in Italy and Japan South Korea the end crisis suddenly people delay parent was my thinking in the mortgage crisis in the US and many other countries suddenly we see this huge triggering of childlessness but the childlessness never goes back we get these spikes in childlessness so for me the question why
• 10:00 - 10:30 are birth rates falling you know well let me just say this has now reached quarters of the world that we wouldn't have imagine 5 years ago the US low birth rates Canada birth gaps Australia birth gaps opening and just to show you Russia it's not just the Western world Russia has big big demographic problems and these are the results these are the women I met telling me how they plan to have a child one day but not now one day but not now and now they're
• 10:30 - 11:00 grieving for the families they don't have but is it just women no women are open to talking about this more I found but I find this chat group for childless man and I find these gentlemen's Story the most harrowing of all truly so this is everybody we talk too much about women this is as much men as it is women leading their lives hoping to family delaying childlessness so the question here what's the reason for childlessness
• 11:00 - 11:30 what's the reason for low birth rates comes down to childlessness so the question becomes why are we as Society seeking so much childlessness and I want to show you finally just one chart because this chart is to me something that explains everything I haven't shown it publicly before but it's based on 8 months of research I'm calling it The Vitality curve because what surprised me when you look at data going back to say the 70s
• 11:30 - 12:00 was how symmetrical the curve is of the age that women become mothers so in the past a large number of people were becoming parents when the average age was say around 24 look how symmetrical it is that's unusual in demographics so I was curious to see what might have happened since the 70s and across all of these countries to my amazement this curve shrank and shrank and
• 12:00 - 12:30 shrank but it's still there I can tell you in your country that you will find this curve if you have a cohesive population can I also tell you in your town you will have this curve Vitality so let me just sum up what's happening on our planet for me it's quite clear and I'll be talking a lot more about this in the weeks and months ahead we have stretched the timing of
• 12:30 - 13:00 Parenthood but as we stretched the years there's less energy the timing is off we're not on the same page at the same time it was easy when everybody was thinking Parenthood early 20s in the past it's become stretched now here's the challenge and I'll leave you with this how do we ever get the curve to go back when time goes forwards it's easy to stretch this curve
• 13:00 - 13:30 that's our challenge I believe I wouldn't be here if I wasn't somewhat optimistic I believe there are policies we've seen in hungry under President Novak policies where there was a bubble of young people having children in their 20s that gives me hope we need framework we need an understanding that civilizations will end if we don't find a way for younger people to have the children they want to have at a younger age thank you very much