Examining Assad's Fall and Its Implications for Russia

Fareed Zakaria on what Assad's fall says about Russia

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Summary

In a discussion led by Fareed Zakaria on CNN, the fall of Assad's regime in Syria is analyzed for its broader geopolitical implications, particularly concerning Russia. The conversation outlines how Syria's situation highlights the underlying weaknesses of adversary nations like Russia. Although appearing assertive abroad, Russia struggles with economic challenges and military difficulties, leading to a broader questioning of its global power status. The complexities of Syria's post-Assad scenario are explored, raising concerns about potential regional instability and the emergence of new power dynamics among various factions. Emphasis is placed on ensuring that Russia faces continued pressure to prevent further aggressive expansionism under Putin.

Highlights

The fall of Syria's Assad highlights the underlying weaknesses in adversary nations like Russia. 💥
Despite being assertive internationally, Russia's economic condition is deteriorating, marking a parallel to the Soviet Union's decline. 📉
Russia faces military pressures and economic challenges, notably in Ukraine and due to defense spending. 🛡️
Assad's fall suggests a possible shift in Syria's power dynamics, posing new challenges for the region. 🎭

Key Takeaways

Syria's Assad regime collapse exposes weaknesses, particularly in its foreign ally, Russia. 🌍
Russia's economy and military face challenges, despite its assertive global stance. 💪
Post-Assad Syria is a complex mosaic of power dynamics, needing careful global attention. 🧩
Ongoing economic pressure on Russia could curb further aggressive moves by Putin. 🔥

Overview

When Bashar al-Assad's regime crumbled in Syria, it served as a glaring reminder that the perceived strength of adversary nations is often a facade. Fareed Zakaria, in his CNN segment, discusses how the fall unveils Russia's waning power, despite being Syria's long-time ally. Like a Soviet ghost echoing in modern times, Russia's economy is taking hits, particularly with its overreliance on military operations seeming more of a hollow threat than a solid strategy.

Syria now stands at a crossroads, a theatre of potential chaos and new beginnings. With Assad gone, the country is a maze of competing interests and factions. The Kurds, Turks, and pockets of remaining Syrian armies play out a complex game of political chess, while foreign powers like Russia hold on to their strategic bases cautiously. Syria’s landscape echoes the patchwork history of places like the Balkans, where division could easily turn into a series of mini-conflicts.

Economically pressured and militarily strained, Russia must now face increasing fiscal strains and military losses, a consequence of its expansive posturing. With its resources funneled towards an aggressive frontline in Ukraine, Russia seems reminiscent of the old Soviet state before its downfall. Fareed Zakaria, in his analysis, suggests that persistent western pressure could potentially steer Russia away from a path of further destructive expansionism. Meanwhile, Syria's next chapter is anticipated with much apprehension and hope.

Fareed Zakaria on what Assad's fall says about Russia Transcription

00:00 - 00:30 Here's my take. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria should be a reminder of a general truth that often gets obscured in the blizzard of conflicting and contradictory news that absorbs us day to day. The West's adversaries are often weaker than we think. Recall how, for decades, the US overestimated the strength of the Soviet economy and armed forces, the surety with which it claimed that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction
00:30 - 01:00 and the frequency scares around Islamic militant groups like qaida and more recently, Hezbollah. And yet, over time, what often becomes apparent is that these governments and groups are repressive, corrupt and dysfunctional, not attributes that help them thrive in the modern world. Assad's fall points to a direct lesson Russia's growing weakness. Moscow has been serious patron for over half a century. Syria was Russia's
01:00 - 01:30 last major client state in the Middle East. Moscow had spent huge amounts of blood and treasure supporting Assad over the last decade. To lose that position is to become what Barack Obama dismissively called Russia. A regional power is threatening, in fact, even in its own region. Russia's relations have deteriorated, with Armenia, a longtime ally that Russia failed to defend from Azerbaijani aggression as it was bogged down in Ukraine. Russian forces in Africa
01:30 - 02:00 are also increasingly facing pressures from a variety of militant groups. Putin's Russia now resembles the Soviet Union in the 1970s, while it is still assertive and interventionist abroad. Its economy at home is increasingly weak and distorted by its conversion into a wartime operation. But just as the external expansionism and internal mobilization could not mask Soviet decay forever, so today Putin's bravado
02:00 - 02:30 should not scare us. Think about it. If Russia were winning in Ukraine, would he threatened to use nuclear weapons? Two scholars, Mark Dever and Alexander Martnez, note in foreign policy that Russia is losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month and producing only 20. Citing open sources, they note that Russia has lost almost 5000 infantry fighting vehicles since invading Ukraine.
02:30 - 03:00 Russian defense contractors can only make around 200 a year. Its labor shortages are acute in virtually every sector, something even Putin has acknowledged in the military. The starkest sign is that the Russian army has had to invite North Korea to send in troops to help it out. No. Foster of the Naval War College writes that Moscow's desperation can be seen in the rising salaries and bonuses it has to offer to new recruits.
03:00 - 03:30 As of July 2024, recruits from Moscow received a $21,000 enlisting bonus and wages amounting in total to just under $60,000 in their first year of service, effectively earning more per month than privates. Enlisting in the U.S. Army at the same time. Keep in mind that average Russian income is roughly one fifth that of America's. All these weaknesses are obscured for now by a massive wartime
03:30 - 04:00 transformation of the Russian economy. Defense spending is projected to be about 40% of the Russian federal budget next year. In addition, another 30% will be spent on various national security and classified mattress. Inflation is now around 9%. Perhaps most telling, its main sources of revenue are under severe pressure. Gazprom, the natural gas giant that in 2022 provided about $40 billion
04:00 - 04:30 to Russian state coffers, announced a $6.9 billion loss in 2023, its first in more than 20 years. Now is not the time to ease up on the pressure on Russia. In fact, in an essay on foreign affairs Theater, Bunzl and Elina Rybak point out that there are many ways to tighten the economic screws going forward. In a social media post after Assad's fall, Donald Trump said that Russia was in a weakened state
04:30 - 05:00 because of Ukraine and a bad economy, noting that 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead in a war that should never have started. That is exactly right. He also wrote that it was time for Putin to act, implying that the problem with getting a ceasefire or peace deal is Russia, not Ukraine. This is a refreshing shift from what had seemed in the past his tendency to blame Ukraine
05:00 - 05:30 for getting invaded. In that post, Trump also said that he knew Vladimir well. Then, he surely knows that on this issue, the chief challenge that he will face once back in the white House is getting Vladimir to abandon his dream of reconstructing Russia's Tsarist empire. Putin has pursued that vision since his first days in office, launching a savage war in Chechnya soon after coming to power.
05:30 - 06:00 Invading Georgia in 2008, annexing Crimea in 2014 and attempting to conquer all of Ukraine in 2022. If Trump can convince Vladimir, his friend, of that, he will be able to do what he has always said was his goal end the war in Ukraine? Go to CNN. Slash freed for a link to my Washington Post column this week, and let's get started.
06:00 - 06:30 Syrians flooded the streets after prayers on Friday to celebrate the ouster of the brutal dictator, Bashar al-Assad. It was a moving spectacle, showing the joy and relief of people free at last from one tyrannical regime. But it stands in stark contrast to the potential dangers that the new Syria might face balkanized rule, attacks on minorities,
06:30 - 07:00 perhaps a resurgence of ISIS. As secretary of State Blinken told reporters Friday. Having put ISIS back in its box, we cannot let it out. Joining me now are Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. And Kim got us a long time foreign correspondent. Richard, talk a little bit about what you think in Sydney in the next few weeks and months is likely to happen because people forget, you know, Syria? Yes. You have this group
07:00 - 07:30 that has taken over what Assad controlled. But there are places that ISIS controls very small pockets. There's a large part of Syria that the Kurds control, but the Turks are now moving in on that area. And presumably there are some places where the old Syrian army still has some control. And the Russians have a naval base. So it's a fairly complicated jigsaw puzzle. No. Absolutely right. What comes to mind a little bit, Fareed, is the Balkans. You know, we tend to think of countries as singular entities.
07:30 - 08:00 That's a possibility for sure. Ultimately, though, we also have to be wary that there are, shall we say, malign singular entities. We could have a Taliban like, future for for sure. But I think the more likely one for the foreseeable future is what you've suggested more of a patchwork quilt of fiefdoms of sort the Kurds here, Turkish backed groups in parts of the country. The Israelis have moved in in a limited preventive way along, their border. This principal group that led to the overthrow the Turks will have their areas.
08:00 - 08:30 And that's right. There could be pockets of Alawites and so forth. So we should expect and I think the real question is how long does that last? How violent might it might it be? And ultimately, was it lead to, I think, all of this, as hard as it is to oust a regime, it's even harder to build a functioning country. Kim, when you look at the other complexity here is this is, this is the end of a civil war that has been going on for 13 years. What does that mean?
08:30 - 09:00 Fareed, I think it means that Syrians have gone through, the pain and hard work of understanding what it means to be in a civil war, fighting each other, fighting the regime. And I think that that should give us some hope that they will know how to lead this process forward. Having gone through the infighting. And I don't think it's about being naive, but about making sure that we're not fatalistic about the potential chaos that could unfold in Syria.
09:00 - 09:30 I think Syrians deserve support. They deserve encouragement, and they deserve, for us to have faith in them after what they achieved, pretty much on their own. This was the Syrians who started in in 2011, and it was the Syrians who ended up bringing down Bashar al Assad in such a rapid way over the last two weeks or so. And they deserve credit for that, because this means that this is not Iraq,
09:30 - 10:00 where there was a U.S. invasion that deposed, Saddam Hussein. And this is not Libya, where there was a UN led, intervention. This is a Syrian led process. And I think that's why we should be a little bit more optimistic and supportive of Syrian efforts to make sure they can take that path forward now towards stability, even though, yes, there will be chaos in the short term as they figure this out. And it is possible that the country ends up being divided, but I think we should be more hopeful than fatalistic.