Finance Bros got PLAYED By Trump! Wall Street Feeling MAJOR REGRETS! (w/ Stephanie Ruhle)

Summary

In this enlightening episode from The Bulwark, host Tim Miller chats with Stephanie Ruhle to dissect how Wall Street's initial enthusiasm for Donald Trump has turned into regret. Once supportive of his promises of deregulation and tax cuts, investors are now reeling from his unpredictable policies and volatile decisions. Ruhle, a seasoned business correspondent, brings her expertise to the discussion, highlighting the challenges faced by investors who underestimated Trump's impact on the economy and the distress Wall Street is experiencing due to the unexpected fallout of these policies.

Highlights

• Investors initially supported Trump hoping for economic growth but have since felt misled. 📈🤯
• Stephanie Ruhle reveals the chaotic reactions on Wall Street post-Trump's policy announcements. 🔄
• The longing for past economic predictability highlights current frustrations. 🕰️
• Investment confidence has been shaken, leading to reassessment of financial strategies. 💡
• The podcast reveals insider perspectives on how Wall Street is managing Trump's decisions. 🗝️

Key Takeaways

• Wall Street initially backed Trump for deregulation and tax cuts but regrets have mounted due to chaotic policies. 📉
• Trump's actions have led to economic instability, leaving investors confused and concerned. 🤔
• The disconnect between Wall Street's expectations and the reality of Trump's governance is widening. 📊
• Investors long for the stability of previous administrations that had more predictable economic policies. ⏳
• Stephanie Ruhle provides insights into how Wall Street is reacting and adapting to Trump's erratic moves. 💼

Overview

Stephanie Ruhle joins The Bulwark's podcast to discuss the rocky road Wall Street faces following Trump's unpredictable policies. Initially, investors were hopeful for deregulation and tax benefits, but that excitement has shifted to a sobering reality check. Ruhle, with her extensive financial background, sheds light on the broader consequences of Trump's governance on the financial world.

The conversation delves into the core of investor regret, as many are struck by the contrast between Trump's promises and the current economic turmoil. Wall Street's initial optimism has been replaced by confusion and concern over erratic policy decisions that deviate from traditional economic stability. The podcast offers a candid exploration of the investment world's challenges under Trump's administration.

Listeners are offered a peek into the mindsets of influential investors and business leaders who are navigating these turbulent times. There's a consensus of missing the stability from previous administrations and the realization that expectations of Trump's economic promises were inflated. Ruhle's insights add depth to understanding the financial sector's current dynamics amidst political unpredictability.

Chapters

• 00:30 - 01:00: Introduction and Podcast Overview The chapter 'Introduction and Podcast Overview' kicks off with a discussion about certain individuals' expectations that political changes under Trump would lead to significant economic prosperity. Contrary to these expectations, the discourse highlights concerns about detrimental economic practices and misguided investments that have undermined America's economic strength, likening the country's state to a 'mattress on the floor of a crack house' within a short time frame.
• 01:00 - 02:00: Guest Introduction - Stephanie Ruhle In this chapter titled 'Guest Introduction - Stephanie Ruhle,' Tim Miller welcomes listeners to the Bull Work Podcast. He mentions the focus of today's episode on the economy and Wall Street, hinting at some turbulent events. Tim also notes a shift to legal issues in Ukraine in the upcoming episode. He encourages listeners to subscribe to another podcast for discussions on politics and threats. Additionally, Tim introduces today's guest, Stephanie Ruhle, who is known for her engaging presence as the host of 'The 11th'.
• 02:00 - 05:00: Discussion on Economic Impacts and Globalization The chapter features a discussion on economic impacts and globalization, with guest appearances from notable figures such as Stephanie Rule. Stephanie, who has experience as a senior business correspondent for NBC News and a former managing director at Deutsche Bank, shares her insights. The conversation includes informal exchanges and light-hearted moments, such as dance moves and references to popular culture, indicating a relaxed and engaging discussion atmosphere.
• 05:00 - 10:00: The Vibe Shift Among Business Leaders The chapter titled 'The Vibe Shift Among Business Leaders' discusses the challenges and observations related to time zone differences and media appearances. It highlights how despite being a routine segment on giving summer travel tips, issues like tariff and international concerns are still on the minds of people, with specific mention of decreased Canadian travel to certain regions.
• 10:00 - 15:00: Finance and Wall Street Reactions This chapter discusses the reduced travel across the border in March compared to the previous year. It mentions the potential impact on hotel occupancy in popular travel destinations like the UP and Michigan. The larger issue highlighted is a global crisis of confidence, shaped by decades of developments, and illustrated by people's hesitancy to travel.
• 15:00 - 20:00: Crypto Influence and Controversies The chapter delves into the concept of globalization and its impact on global relationships and trust. It highlights the benefits globalization has brought to the world, even though certain areas and economies have struggled. The focus is on the worry surrounding the breakdown of globalization and its implications. The discussion sets the stage for an in-depth analysis of these breaking points and their repercussions.
• 20:00 - 25:00: Shifts in Political Allegiances and Economic Policies The chapter discusses the changes in political allegiances and economic policies following a recent inauguration. The speaker reflects on a previous conversation held shortly after the inauguration, noting a significant change in the business world's attitude towards the new administration. Initially, there was a shift in the business sector towards support for Trump, indicating a broader trend of adapting to the new political climate.
• 25:00 - 30:00: Impact of Tariffs and Trade on Economy The chapter discusses the impact of tariffs and trade on the economy, focusing on the changes in regulatory and tax cuts as well as stock market movements. It also considers the rapid shift in perception and sentiment over a short period, questioning the underlying reasons for this change.
• 30:00 - 35:00: Role of Science and Education Funding The chapter opens with a discussion on the core responsibilities of Wall Street investors, which primarily involve risk assessment. Investors are keen on evaluating future risks to make informed investment decisions.
• 35:00 - 40:00: Democratic Strategies and Family Values The chapter discusses the Democratic party's strategies and priorities, contrasting them with the promises and viewpoints held by Donald Trump over the years. There is a focus on the absence of key figures from Trump's first administration, like Steve Mnuchin, Gary Cohn, and Jared Kushner, who were pivotal in influencing Trump's decisions. The narrative reflects on the impact of their absence and the changes in political dynamics.
• 40:00 - 45:00: IRS and Tax Policies The chapter discusses the widespread disapproval among investors and business leaders, both domestically and internationally, regarding the execution and rollout of Trump's tariffs. Despite some support for the general concept of tariffs, there is a unanimous dissatisfaction with their implementation, with the exception of two unidentified groups who seem to be in favor.
• 45:00 - 50:00: Cultural and Political Commentary The chapter delves into the dynamics within Donald Trump's inner circle, highlighting two main groups: individuals who flatter him to gain influence and businessmen receiving economic benefits. The first group, likened to historical advisors, believes they can subtly sway Trump through constant praise and proximity, whereas the second group is depicted as opportunistic, seeking personal gain through their association with him. The chapter suggests a complex interplay of power, manipulation, and personal interest within Trump's advisory network.
• 50:00 - 53:00: Closing Remarks and Guest Departure This chapter delves into the dynamics of the American oligarchy, particularly focusing on individuals or entities profiting from policies under Trump's administration. It explores the concept of a powerful inner circle: one that believes it can influence or alter Trump's decisions, and another composed of those who, having achieved substantial financial gains, choose to support and shield current policies for personal benefit. The discussion highlights the motivations and strategies of wealthy individuals in preserving their economic interests, even if it means sidelining other issues.

Finance Bros got PLAYED By Trump! Wall Street Feeling MAJOR REGRETS! (w/ Stephanie Ruhle) Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 [Music] so I hear these guys that thought Trump was going to be this springboard for them to like massive economic prosperity and and what they're doing is slashing all the things that made America you know economically unique and powerful and great and like investing in scams and they like they've turned it us into like the mattress on the floor of a crack house in 3 months it's like unbelievable [Music] [Applause]
• 00:30 - 01:00 hello and welcome to the Bull Work Podcast i'm your host Tim Miller quick scheduling note we're digging in again on the economy and Wall Street's around and find out moment on this pod today tomorrow we're pivoting to legal issues in Ukraine if you're looking for fascism watch and a little politics talk it's Wednesday so Sarah JVL and I break that threat assessment down on the next level podcast let's go subscribe to that but on today's show she's already making me giggle she's the host of the 11th
• 01:00 - 01:30 hour on MSNBC uh she also is senior business correspondent for NBC News she was formerly managing director at Deutsche Bank and she's doing I Dream of Genie dance moves right now it's Stephanie Rule what is up girl hey is that right hey uh yeah all of all of those things are right but uh today with you Pulp Fiction or I Dream of Genie what was the dance move there just a little just a little bit of me this morning just find enjoy wherever we can steph was she has the show as I mentioned the 11th hour
• 01:30 - 02:00 which is on 11:00 p.m to midnight which is a struggle for me it's on central time but she's doing it on Eastern time and uh and then she was on the Today's Show this morning what were you doing giving people giving people coupon uh no uh the summer ahead summer travel tips and you know it's so funny even in sort of like the most basic safe place that you're talking people are looking at the tariff situation they're looking at the the international situation and they're worried yeah I saw an article right now that 900,000 fewer Canadians came across
• 02:00 - 02:30 the border in in March than of March last year I believe it so I don't maybe for some people that'll mean more hotel rooms open in in hot Canadian travel spots like the UP and Michigan but I I don't I don't know if that's great for the the locals what's happening on a global scale as soon as you see people just stopping travel it's just another window into what I think is the biggest problem here and it's this crisis of confidence and what we've spent decades and decades and
• 02:30 - 03:00 decades building our relationship and our trust around the world right globalization while it was really tough for parts of this country for parts of our economy globalization is also why in large part we as a globe have prospered and the fact that we're seeing bits of it and chunks of it break down that's the most worrisome thing it is we're going to break it all down and and she's going to be a little punchy you know we're on we're on like four hours of sleep maybe for Steph so um I want to start here which is uh how much
• 03:00 - 03:30 difference a fiscal quarter makes because I relisted this morning to the podcast we did together where you were bucking me up i was in a dark place it was I think like two days after the inauguration maybe three and um it's funny to listen to it because it's like the environment is so different from now like we were mostly t talking about like this vibe shift among the business world and how they're getting on board with Trump and they're like "Yeah we have our
• 03:30 - 04:00 doubts but at least we can say again and we're going to get our tax cuts and our regulation cuts and our stock number is going to go up and and we're kind of you know navigating that and why that was and why it happened." And here we are three months later we have a total reverse vibe shift they have around they found out quicker than anybody maybe in human history and I'm wondering you know what you're hearing with your people now the absurdity about the vibe shift is
• 04:00 - 04:30 this wall Street investors core responsibility is to assess risk that's what you do in finance you figure out what is the risk ahead and how do I place a bet how do I make an investment based on that and what we saw after the inaugur inauguration was this enthusiasm around a vibe that we're going to get no regulation that we're going to get tax cuts and yeah you know DEI and all that nonsense that was strangling our productivity and profitability we're
• 04:30 - 05:00 going to rip through that well that's what they made the priority and they ignored the the promises and pledges and point of view that Donald Trump has had for decades and decades and now we're seeing it play out the funniest thing I think we're seeing right now is just this longing this this missing of a of a Steve Minutuchin a Gary Conn a Jared Kushner who in the first administration held Donald Trump in and and and the thing that that concerns me so much right now Tim I can tell you I speak to
• 05:00 - 05:30 investors here abroad business leaders here and abroad right now I cannot find one single smart serious person voice of influence Even those who like the general idea of Trump's tariffs not one single person who is on board or happy with the execution and the roll out of what has happened over the last two weeks save two groups there are two people that are okay with it and those are people that
• 05:30 - 06:00 are deep in Trump's inner circle who are convincing themselves if they keep French braiding his hair and telling him he's the greatest master super leader ever then they'll be able to gently push back on him they're fancying themselves a Gary Con a Steve the two people Howard Lenick and Scott Basser those the two Yeah put that over there and then the other group of people who are business people who are specifically on the take who are getting some sort of carveouts
• 06:00 - 06:30 whether because of an exemption whether they own a private prison whether they're in crypto where they're in a space where they are making so much money because of what Trump's doing they're willing to ignore all the rest that he's doing and that I is is when you say oh that when we people talk about American oligarchy that's right there so those two categories of people on the inner circle who believe they can convince him otherwise or those who are personally banking so much money they're just going to build a moat around their
• 06:30 - 07:00 castle and say damn the rest of us you know what's kind of funny is uh again back in January wary when we were talking we had these masters of the universe that were all around him sundar was there and Elon and Tim Cook and and Zuckerberg and they were all thinking they were gonna get theirs and you know I mean they're all still fine but all their ind industries there's some shaky stuff happening i love how you're like the hot industries now the people that are feeling good are private prisons and crypto that's that's a first world economy that's really what you want to base a first world e economy on
• 07:00 - 07:30 imprisoning people and fake money yes 100% and when you when you think about what o over the weekend when when when we thought you know suddenly uh Apple and um these other tech businesses are going to get the exemption when I talked to other business people immediately they're like damn who are our lobbyists how do we get to Mara Lago and as as confusing as Trump's messaging has been he had one consistent message Tim i've got my views but I'm flexible come on
• 07:30 - 08:00 down to Mara Lago and maybe we can make a deal and that's what it is right we and I have talked about this before the $5 million one-on-one meeting you can have with him the one-on-one uh uh um candlelight dinner you can go to at Mara Lago and each of those people in the tech universe are buy vying to stay closer and closer to him you know people have said like why does Jeff Bezos excuse me why does Jeff Bezos even want to own the Washington Post he's not interested in it jeff Bezos own the owning the Washington Post is the most
• 08:00 - 08:30 valuable thing he can do to stay close to Trump because as much as Trump likes lining his pockets with money which tons of people are willing to do for him he cares so so much about the press he cares so so much about what the Washington Post has to say about him and Jeff Bezos having any ability or an outsiz ability to influence that media outlet that's a huge value to Trump and we see Trump is about what is in it how how does this advantage him and that's
• 08:30 - 09:00 how he makes decisions you that is 100% true about Trump the thing that is also true about Trump though is that you can't trust any of the deals right i mean like Zuckerberg for example prime example I think thought he was getting in on the inside i he put Dana White on his board they're hanging out at at MMA together he's at the he's in the front he's ahead of Marco and the inauguration seating chart and like again 3 months later uh JD Vance is like no I we're
• 09:00 - 09:30 still into the you know antitrust stuff and you thought you got rid of Lena Khan but we're going to start looking into this stuff all that's moving forward and so again I just wonder these guys like these guy you know what though Tim shame on them especially Wall Street guys they knew him so anybody when when we've had to watched um Howard Lutnik say "Let Trump be the business guy that he is." Art of the deal yeah that's what he's doing and any person who works at any
• 09:30 - 10:00 investment bank in New York knows exactly the business guy that he was right when he was in business when he was in business JP Morgan didn't do business with him goldman Sachs didn't do business with him morgan Stanley didn't my bank Deutsche Bank that that that was compared to those banks is like the dog track of banks they were willing to do business with him and and find a contractor find a counterparty he never stood up to his deals right never i remember years ago talking to a hedge
• 10:00 - 10:30 fund manager who he entered he he he did some kind of deal with Trump i don't remember what it was and the day after the deal closed I remember telling me the story trump said to let's say this guy was making 50 million and Trump was making 10 trump said "Can we reverse those numbers for the New York Post?" And the guy's like "What all Trump cared about was the headline." And the other guy was like "Uh yeah as long as I'm getting the money as long as you're getting diluted." And most of the companies that Trump ran at the end of the day he was diluted down to only
• 10:30 - 11:00 owning 2% and having his name on the door but he didn't actually own any of them it was all about bluster and show and so now here you have a person the leader of the free world you know negotiating these deals just yesterday he said like we want China to make a deal with us if you're the person with the strong hand why are you begging the other one to come to the table and this is what has people so worried can they trust what he's saying for Wall Street you can actually make a ton of money in volatile markets right you can buy and
• 11:00 - 11:30 sell no sweat uh in a recession you can bet against the market but Tim if you ran any sort of business how on earth would you plan today United Airlines put forward guidance two separate lanes here's what guidance would look like if we face the tariffs here's what it would look like if we won't because under what Trump is doing we actually have a strong stable economy it's why things have moved so much because they're like "If only he would just get back in the ring we could be okay." But there's no sign of him doing that do you remember what
• 11:30 - 12:00 the difference was in the United thing because I think that's another thing that that people who do not like watch the finance news um it hasn't sunk in like we're coming up on earnings right and so like all like all a lot of big businesses are going to have to do something like that right and and I think that the like the outlook is going to get like really kind of dire here in the next month companies are either pulling guidance entirely because they don't know what's ahead or now we're seeing like United they're they're
• 12:00 - 12:30 giving two outlooks but think about the last week Jamie Diamond said you know we got a rocky road ahead larry Frink said we may already be in a recession goldman has adjusted their GDP outlook to basically zero for 2025 and all of that falls squarely on Donald Trump and something I would connect this to you talk about young voters all the time think about all the support Donald Trump had especially from young man men we've seen that support plummet and you know why cuz Yeah they wanted to end wokeness
• 12:30 - 13:00 and they wanted to be the men that they were again until they realized oh no the most important thing is the economy and suddenly with rates where they are if I got to if I need almost 500 grand to for for my first home I don't have money like that if suddenly all the businesses I want to work at the graduate degree I want to get the research job I want to get is gone suddenly they don't care so much about Trump ending woke wokeness half of which wasn't even true because you're actually seeing our concrete
• 13:00 - 13:30 economy our place in the world as a superpower start to be in question yeah it's funny you say that young man because I was looking at a poll just kind of just clicked as you said that yesterday um for the Gen Z show FY pod everybody go check that out um and it was like the 18 to 21 year old boys are still solid you know and like the 22 to 28 year old boys you've seen the number plummet right since January and I was kind of trying to think about like why that is and and the economy is maybe not
• 13:30 - 14:00 the entire element of it but it is a big part of it and and part of it is like what is trendy in this like you know they do the kind of bar stool day trading stuff and the crypto stuff and they expected like big returns right to happen they they bought the con let's just be honest of Trump and like thought it was all was no rules let's let it rip but we're getting the opposite because tariffs especially in the way that he's rolling them out are the most restrictive rules and every a and when
• 14:00 - 14:30 you've got a White House that does not have a unified message i mean let's just be honest you've got Scott Bessant saying something different from Howard Lutnick you've got Trump saying on Sunday right when everybody was like couldn't wait to go buy tech stocks and like "Oh my goodness the exemption parade is coming." Howard Lutnik goes on television and says "Oh those tech exemptions they're probably going to only last a month." When that happened my phone was ringing off the hook from guys like "He's Lutnik's going to get fired right he's off the rails he's not
• 14:30 - 15:00 our message." And then two hours later Trump's like "Nobody's off the hook." And and so this has people with their heads just spinning like pick a lane bro and go with it i mean with all these people that are calling you have is there any self-reflection that maybe they they made a bad bet on this one maybe it was safer to go with the black lady or are we not quite we need a little more pain before we get there so I will say I don't have those conversations by design right if I'm speaking to sources I want to learn everything I can and me saying "Well didn't you learn your lesson is a waste
• 15:00 - 15:30 of time." Something that I've actually heard in the last two days was something I hadn't thought about but I'm hearing more and more guys talk about is Trump's um leaning toward uh authoritarianism a huge investor called me just yesterday just based on these rumors that the White House has denied about them potentially having a military parade mhm you know if if we were to have a military parade in in honor of our
• 15:30 - 16:00 president if that were to happen that should rock us to our core because that's what Kim Jong-un does right that's what we see in dictatorships pair that with ignoring a Supreme Court ruling right lots of folks out there would say you know oh my goodness like just get rid of those illegal immigrants they're all criminals we make them if we make a few mistakes so be it i'm glad with what Trump is doing there's a group of people who say that but there are is a group of
• 16:00 - 16:30 surprising people in the investor class who are paying super close attention to this Maryland man who has been detained who's in an Al Salvador prison and the reason they're so concerned about it is because Trump is openly and brazenly ignoring a Supreme Court ruling and one of the main reasons that people invest in America and believe in America a core tenant of American exceptionalism is that we follow the rule of law we have
• 16:30 - 17:00 three separate but equal branches of government congress does their job we follow the rule of law we invest in science we back our universities when we don't do that that breaks down the foundation of American exceptionalism so it was interesting to me uh calls that I was surprised to get from investors who are so focused on this idea could we have a military parade and is Trump going to continue to ignore a Supreme Court ruling and and and hide behind
• 17:00 - 17:30 this sort of well I'd bring him home if it wasn't for the president of El Salvador explain to me on one hand you're the strongest of the strong men right who thinks you rule the world but now you're going to hide behind the president of El Salvador no one believes that and it's interesting to me that that has so many in the investor community concerned that is it's interesting to me too um my dad mentioned who's in the investor community mentioned to me the Vgo Garcia thing last night too and he's just like why not just bring him back like what is the the deal you know have just not um
• 17:30 - 18:00 you know kind of like like just being aware of like what the potential systemic like risk is of all this like this just feels like over one guy like a not worthwhile fight to like these rational like finance type people and it's interesting like I I also find it interesting because there was this poll yesterday that came out about some of the immigration stuff and like if you actually look at the details on it like Trump is still like barely over water
• 18:00 - 18:30 depends on what poll you look at on on his overall immigration uh policy but you know like deport undocumented immigrants who have not broken laws in the US except for immigration laws like I would have thought that was maybe a positive i I don't you know not having looked at it it's minus 18 like like a significant majority of Americans don't think we should deport people who have not committed other crimes besides cross because a significant portion of
• 18:30 - 19:00 Americans understand the contributions these immigrants make to our country right let's go to the state of Florida Donald Trump's adopted home state so we're going to mass deport the people who pick our fruits and vegetables okay the people responsible for the produce at your grocery store and in your kitchen and what are we doing to to to counter that well we're lowering the regulations in Florida so children up to
• 19:00 - 19:30 uh to the age of 14 can now work I think until 900 p.m at night okay so again we're talking about denting American exceptionalism we're gonna remove immigrants who came here for a better life who are willing to take those low-wage intensely uh laborious jobs so what our kids can do those jobs and this goes right back to if Donald Trump wanted to say dasselin is back baby we're going to be That's for my Iowa
• 19:30 - 20:00 people i if Donald Trump wanted to say China is a bad actor in terms of trade and they are and if you wanted to get together with our allies which we wanted to do at the end of the Obama administration with the Trans-Pacific Partnership and take them on have at it or if he wanted to say "We're really going to tariff them." But this idea that Howard Lutnik pushed and we're going to start making iPhones here we don't want that for our kids we want to invest in education we want to improve education so our kids can have higher skill jobs so they're designing the next
• 20:00 - 20:30 iPhone so they're designing the next car not so they're assembling every piece of it it just makes absolutely no sense well I mean there's some Now Scott I'll speak of carveouts that we're going to carve out farm workers and and then bail out the farmers so it's it's just a great policy a great coherent policy chaos yeah so so we're going to bail out the farmers we know when Donald Trump first announced the tariffs and wasn't mentioning bailing out any farmers he
• 20:30 - 21:00 said this is going going to be great for farmers have fun guys never realizing that we as a country produce more food than we could ever consume right they need to export so now we're going to write these giant checks to farmers because we want to save the American farmer aren't we supposed to care about debt and deficits aren't we supposed to care about government spending so on the left hand you have Doge taking a a a rhinestone bedazzled um chainsaw to vital parts of the government and now on the other side we have to write a check
• 21:00 - 21:30 to to American farmers to make sure they can stay in business because of the tariffs we've imposed the problem is there's no logical strategy behind any of this this episode is sponsored by BetterHelp uh look you know I'm I I'm not shy about talking about therapy i love therapy uh and uh this day and age who doesn't need a little therapy lots lots happening out there in the world and it's important to
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• 22:00 - 22:30 a little while though you know some days when I'm scrolling on X for the seventh hour I'm like maybe I should reassess that uh but you know back uh a few years ago you know for me it was important to kind of get my mind right and my internal thinking about how how I process my own self right i had this great therapist that helped me process like you know how I felt about my own personal failings and
• 22:30 - 23:00 what I could do to feel better about my own self and not you know let the world uh get me down and you know and not let uh the world's perception get you down and in this day and age I don't know if there's anything that could be more useful for anybody than that so uh with only over 30,000 therapists BetterHelp can help you find somebody like that it's the world's our largest online
• 23:00 - 23:30 therapy platform having served over 5 million people globally your wellbeing is worth it so visit betterhelp.com/thebullwork to get 10% off your first month that's betterhelp [Music] hp.com/thebullwork there really isn't i want to do a couple of other economic things uh for you with with you um just just on some of the details because you mentioned this in passing but I think it's worth kind of digging in on um
• 23:30 - 24:00 right now 30-year mortgages cost 7 and a half% again it's pretty high i bet like probably 95% of the listeners here have a lower mortgage rate than that so getting a new house or refinancing is going to be very hard pressure on PAL is coming but like there's a lot of signs that that might not even work for the longer term mortgages so I just want to hear your take on on that so so here's why this matters and people like to like gaze off when you talk about bonds but I'm just going to I'm going to lay it out just
• 24:00 - 24:30 for a second normally when the stock market goes down people rush to bonds and when we say what are bonds that's US treasuries and you know a few weeks ago uh ear early tariff talk when the stock market started to go down we saw the likes of Scott Bessa and others say well this is good because we are going to see rates go down and this will help us because we have a huge amount of government debt that is coming due $6 trillion in June that has to get
• 24:30 - 25:00 refinanced so they had this idea well the stock market will go down and we are going to see uh people rush to buy treasuries so people rush to buy treasuries that means the price goes up and the yield goes down but what's happening in my opinion is the scariest thing normally stocks go down and you see people rush to buy treasuries they're not they're not rushing to buy treasuries because they're not trusting the US dollar they're not trusting gold the US exactly they're going for the
• 25:00 - 25:30 gold not Olympic style they're going for the gold because it's the only trusted asset so so for people who aren't even invested in the markets already you're you're hazing over you're right when when those rates go up that means your credit card is going to cost more to pay that's your mortgage any sort of loan so tariffs are going to make everything cost more and now what it costs you to borrow is going up as well and that's a perfect storm and the question will be will Jay Powell and the Fed have to step in and buy bonds which is crazy that they should oh so that's the
• 25:30 - 26:00 solution because like lowering the rate wouldn't actually help the long term the 30 year but buying bonds will no it's it's will the Fed come in and start buying up treasuries because as long as we're talking trade war and I I promise I won't get that nerdy one of the problems is some of the largest holders the people who own the most treasuries are other countries china is one of the biggest holders of US treasuries and if they decide to dump them or not show up
• 26:00 - 26:30 for our next treasury auction that's what a nasty trade war looks like and they have the ability to do that they've been quietly buying up and publicly buying up US treasuries for years and years and years and they've got us by the bond balls um one other you'll kind of see where I'm going with this on the uh on the trend here but another uh area that that I wanted to focus on is the manufacturing uh your man Joe Weisenthal posted this yesterday it was a chart with that had the uh new orders for New
• 26:30 - 27:00 York Fed regional manufacturers and they hit the lowest level in the history of the survey so uh investment in manufacturing is way down that seems to be the opposite of what the stated goal was of the program but I don't what what do you make of it in part because it's ignoring the fact that even if you are in manufacturing we have a global supply chain okay so take autos for a second it's not that we don't build cars here we do we efficiently build cars here
• 27:00 - 27:30 parts of it we build here parts of it we build in Mexico some parts of it we build in Canada or even if you wanted to build a whole new plant the pieces you need the parts you need come from abroad so this notion of this manufacturing renaissance that's coming back was completely illconceived because there was no strategic planning around it and that's why you're seeing yes even manufacturing get hurt so I guess the point I was trying to make here is we have you know interest rates for
• 27:30 - 28:00 everybody way up like uh inflation is persistent manufacturing down stocks down crypto down like who is even has they have they done anything to help anybody right like that's like the the mo the craziest thing about about all of this like not only has it been chaos not only has there been some authoritarian light authoritarianism but they're not even keeping the trains running on time they're not even serving their own people like is who's happy well I would
• 28:00 - 28:30 say Donald Trump is most definitely happy the Trump family is happy donald Trump is wealthier than he's ever been when he was actually a businessman in real estate he inherited a a huge New York real estate portfolio where he lost an enormous amount of money but finally as president of the United States in 2025 he and his family are wealthier beyond their wildest dreams and where has he made money in in businesses that many people believe are Ponziike crypto in his massive crypto exchange and Truth
• 28:30 - 29:00 Social which is a social media platform that doesn't actually make any significant money but trades at a huge huge multiple because whether it's Trump's memecoin or his crypto exchange or Truth Social the greatest way you can get something from Trump and Curry a favor is to give him money if you ask me what business has been spending the most amount of time down at Mara Lago it's crypto guys right right you're seeing Justin Sun who is being investigated by the government and his company this is
• 29:00 - 29:30 the guy who uh bought a piece of art it was a it was a banana duct tape for $6.5 million he put $75 million into Trump's business and that investigation into him poof it went away last week the Department of Justice announced they are going to end prosecuting and investigating crypto as an industry they are only going to look at it if the crypto is being spent on terrorism or trafficking or real real bad crimes so
• 29:30 - 30:00 Donald Trump himself is making a killing right while everybody was spinning panicked over what to do with tariffs he was at Mara Lago for the Liv golf tournament making an enormous amount of money and so I would say I I I would compare where we are to Russia in the 1990s as they were breaking down their government and their economy to the studs and privatizing it that's where we're headed yeah you you hit all of my my crypto points i'm obsessed with with the crypto stuff i'm like the the guy
• 30:00 - 30:30 from Always Sunny in P or Alway Sunny in Philadelphia with the yarn on the wall when it comes to Justin Sun and all these guys but the one the only one you didn't mention that I wanted to just bring up really quick was this the Binance story uh which it's it's like the these guys that their their billionaire CEO Xiao I'm not going to try to pronounce his first name is also seeking a pardon he did he had a guilty plea on anti-money moneyaundering laws is the DOJ's like "We're not gonna investigate any of this stuff." Binance
• 30:30 - 31:00 is now going in and saying "Also could you not investigate money laundering?" And in exchange they're talking with the Trump family about a like I guess taking a stake in Binance this is a Wall Street Journal story from earlier in the week and that is like wild how is that that makes me think about Eric Trump who has repeatedly said "I'm a private businessman i have nothing to do with the government." What are you kidding me this is a person who just weeks ago said you know buy crypto it looks cheap when
• 31:00 - 31:30 there was a dip and then just a couple days later the White House announces oh we may be putting together a crypto reserve and when I talk to some of the biggest names in finance something that is just making their head spin just think about this the government is defunding science to buy crypto right if that doesn't warn you if that doesn't concern you and put you in a panic it should and and and and this is a business that has no transparency i
• 31:30 - 32:00 remember Eric Trump saying you know we learned about crypto we got involved in crypto after January 6 when no one would do business with us red flag if no one will do business with you but crypto has its arms open wide and ready to embrace you then there's something up with crypto and I actually know some really smart sophisticated crypto investors who hate what Trump is doing in the crypto space because even though in the short term it's great for them it delegitimizes it because if you believe in the legitimacy of crypto what he's
• 32:00 - 32:30 doing right now just makes it look like legal you know crimes that they've legalized right your the uh the science versus for crypto trade uh brought to me brought to mind one of my favorite quotes that I have bookmarked for for the Trump era uh which is Mark Andre one of these guys really smart guy invented the web browser like very well read but sometimes smart people can be very unsavvy uh he got fully in with Trump and he put this I think this was a day or two after the election America is an
• 32:30 - 33:00 economic coiled spring we should be growing at at least 4% annually and ideally 6.8% growth has been brutally suppressed since before I was born so here are these guys that thought Trump was going to be this springboard for them to like massive economic prosperity and and what they're doing is slashing all the things that made America you know economically unique and powerful and great and like investing in scams i mean they like they've turned it us into
• 33:00 - 33:30 like the mattress on the floor of a crack house in three months well that spring that spring we're now you know the Statue of Liberty is now wrapped and tangled into that into that spring and that goes right back to what he's doing with Harvard donald Trump and Steven Miller love this this fight with Harvard because they want to present this as their war against sort of liberalism and universities sort of but but where it's so misguided and where the American
• 33:30 - 34:00 people should understand it this is not about anti-semitism and just the notion that like they are taking money from the likes of Harvard and they want you to close your eyes and think that you know there's a professor somewhere smoking a pipe who's panicked that they're going to lose their tenure and they're not going to be able to to go on a reading tour this summer no if you looked at the humanities budget at Harvard or Yale or any of these schools it's a rounding error when Donald Trump pulls two billion dollars from Harvard and
• 34:00 - 34:30 threatens their tax exempt status the only thing I want you to think about is Harvard's medical research the work that they do for decades and decades i'm going to get choked up thinking about it and the millions of lives that it saves right our medical research the kind of research that the government funds is the research that private industry won't because there's not going to be a vaccine right away and they they can't turn it around and make money off of it
• 34:30 - 35:00 but we've got people that are plagued with terminal diseases and illnesses that you've got our bestincclass worldrenowned medical centers researching and studying scientists who devote their lives to it who could work in private industry but they don't and and so this idea that we're pulling from Harvard it it's it's such a a an a an attack on us and and so much misinformation that people don't understand that like these aren't people
• 35:00 - 35:30 in in at at the at the Harvard club or people like you know suddenly you know at at at Skull and Bones at Yale like they'll be so no these are career researchers who are trying to save lives and they're going to be missing out and by them missing out we're going to miss out yeah I'm glad you bring it up because I always think in this situation about my friend who has a kid that has this very rare disease that like three people have a year it's like three k three kids have it a year so it's like the pharma companies are not investing
• 35:30 - 36:00 in finding a solution to something like that you know because it's just there's no scale right there's not there's no business interest in it there so like that you know and and really even the big charitable foundations aren't right because they want money from people that you know what I mean it's like this is the only way to do it or charitable foundations are going to give money where there's scale where there's lots and lots of people suffering but for your friend and his or her daughter or son that's who I I fear for
• 36:00 - 36:30 yeah woof um Okay i was going to bring it to a silly topic next but I can't do it okay we'll do one more i'm sorry for that should we do a silly top okay one more we'll do a transition to the silly topic i just want I was watching your show last night so I want to do uh um it was tax day yesterday you know I'll tell you on a silly topic every time I keep talking about Harvard and their endowment i have guest I had a guest last night who said well endowed and then of course like I fell off my chair because then I I can't pay attention anymore you know like and I'm like and
• 36:30 - 37:00 I'm like why why like didn't you know I was the host couldn't you just say big endowment like why'd you have to say well endowed now I've lost the whole segment girthy Endowment okay fine we're going to silly talk we'll end with the taxes did you know Fast Growing Trees is the biggest online nursery in the US with thousands of different plants and over 2 million happy customers they have all the plants your yard needs like fruit trees privacy trees shrubs and so much more whatever plants you're interested in Fast Growing Trees has you covered
• 37:00 - 37:30 find the perfect fit for your climate and space their live and thrive guarantee ensures your plants arrive happy and healthy plus you can get support from trained plant experts on call to help you plan your landscape choose the right plants and learn how to care for them um as I've mentioned my husband's a plant gay in the family uh but uh you know in this case with the fast growing trees I decided to get my daughter on board and have her kind of look through all the options on the website chose an olive tree uh because
• 37:30 - 38:00 she really likes to eat olives don't think she realizes that you can't really pick the olive from the tree and eat it right away but it's going to be a good learning experience maybe we'll do some canning too who knows and um you know the uh the the wonderful thing about it is you know you can watch it all grow in real time come straight to your house it's easy and we've been gone for a week uh and just yesterday I received a text from my buddy uh who had his three-year-old out there watering my
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• 38:30 - 39:00 now is the perfect time to plant use the bullwork to save today offer is valid for a limited time terms and conditions may apply hey YouTube fam if you want to support the bull work the best way to do it is by becoming a YouTube bullwork plus member the bull work is truly independent we have no corporate overlords we're not settling any dumb lawsuits with Trump by joining you help support our work and you can get a bunch of perks right here on this platform adree content bonus videos live streams
• 39:00 - 39:30 and some emojis of me which I guess some people want so come join come hang out become a Bull Work YouTube Plus member and I'll be seeing you in the comments so behave um speaking of not wellendowed um the the shadow president uh I don't know if you saw the Wall Street Journal story about uh about Elon Musk oh um and how he wants to have a legion of children uh I would recommend people read the whole story but a couple of highlights multiple sources believe the number of
• 39:30 - 40:00 children he has is much higher than 14 he has been DMing random ladies on X asking to use their wombs for his children um according to and including one on there source uh he's tried to create a Mormon polyamorous compound in Austin but only one of the baby mamas lives there uh so far um he's cutting alimony to the moms not participating he cut Twitter engagement to one of the women that wouldn't let him impregnate them
• 40:00 - 40:30 okay here's my take my take on Elon Musk and remember I mean his father has many many many many children uh I think his last two are with his stepdaughter when I hear about Elon Musk when I read about Elon Musk when I watch him in his his paternity spats on Twitter with his most recent mother of his child you know what i actually think about Democrats and here's why if Democrats they're fertile if
• 40:30 - 41:00 Democrats cannot successfully peel any family values voters okay and I thought of this because a couple weeks ago I was speaking to Art Cullen from Iowa and I was asking "What would it take for Iowa to not be a deep red state?" And he said "Nothing democrats have lost us forever you know we're a family value state blah blah blah." And I've been thinking you've got a current president who has been married four times who blah blah blah we know how he talks about women all all of that we have a shadow
• 41:00 - 41:30 president with at least 13 children and the story that you just laid out sights on a legion of children by many many many women how is it that Democrats can't take this reality and make some sort of inroads with family values voters when the idea of of family is inclusion is to love thy neighbor i I is to accept people for exactly who they are and take them in and love them forever if Democrats
• 41:30 - 42:00 cannot successfully peel any portion of family values voters away from a Donald Trump and a shadow Elon Musk and his legion of offspring then I don't know what to tell you Democrats you need some new strategy what do you think about that yeah um I do think the Democrats um should make a more conservative effort and I've talked about this before like of just trying to peel off some minor percentage of Christian evangelical daily churchgoing or weekly
• 42:00 - 42:30 churchgoing voters just in the same way like almost in a shameless way in the same way that Trump did with black voters right cuz like cuz you're my initial reaction from people which I think is right and and I don't I'm kind of overdue to have Russell Moore back on the pod we could we could kind of talk about this it's like man there's actually some problems in the church and you know I was just looking at this tweet from this Republican congressman Riley Moore who's like doing this snuff selfie from the El Salvador prison and it's like it's like the least Christian thing you could possibly do some
• 42:30 - 43:00 Christian but obviously it's has an appeal among among these voters and so some Democrats when they hear your rant will say "This is broken the church is broken these people aren't getable." you know and like there's some deep fundamental sickness that's going to take a generation to change and there may be some truth to that but like you could peel off some that's what I mean the black voters so that's why to me it's more analogous to the black voters did Trump win 50% of black voters no but did he increase by 8% by doing some
• 43:00 - 43:30 gimmicks and some lies let's be honest but actually trying by trying by trying he he peeled off some black voters you know lots of it was meaningful and Democrats should could learn from that they could just try lots of people were offended and a gasast when Trump first time I believe went to a black church in Chicago or Michigan and said "Vote for me what do you have to lose look at your situation." Right and people were offended but there were some people who said like "Yeah my situation isn't
• 43:30 - 44:00 getting any better." Democrats can do the same thing with family values voters they can do the same thing donald Trump look how well he's done with Latino voters given what's happening in terms of illegal deportations can't Democrats take that one on as well not everybody but how about some yeah I agree i think that there's a way to to peel off some but it's going to take a really a concerted effort to do it and it's recognizing that you're you know it's still in the in the aggregate a losing battle like you're probably not going to win the Iowa governor race next time
• 44:00 - 44:30 could you win two of the congressional districts maybe could you win one definitely you know what I mean and that's what you're talking about yeah it's worth it it's it's worth trying it was interesting i I'll put in the show notes people should watch it it was like it's kind of hard to hear i was thinking about playing a clip from it on the show but since you brought it up there is a like a a grassly town hall yesterday oh my god I'm so glad you brought this up i'm so glad you brought this up he is like getting really railed and to be fair it's like hard to know based on a video you know maybe those maybe it's
• 44:30 - 45:00 the 15 libs in the town that are in the thing that are asking these questions but they're framing the questions in the right way right like their questions to Grassly are very like what happened to love your neighbor like what happened to feed and home you know clothe the stranger what happened to the Declaration of Independence right like the questions to him were framed from a very kind of traditionalist American Christian perspective rather than you know like what you might imagine like
• 45:00 - 45:30 somebody from Brooklyn shouting at him you know when I first saw that I had to listen to it three times first of all because I give Chuck Grassley credit for being a 91year-old who actually is standing up and having a town hall but I was like "Hold on a minute this is the question he's being asked at an Iowa town hall i was I was surprised by it but it is also a reminder that Iowa has a huge immigrant population because of all the meat processing plants
• 45:30 - 46:00 yes right and this was an issue with Nunez remember because Nunez had that farm up in northwest Iowa that had you know undocumented immigrant workers and then there was like there was that whole community I'm blanking on the name of that town in northwest Iowa that just had a lot of immigrants because that's they needed it for the farm work and you know they went to church and like they're just part of a huge amount of immigrants and and I remember Art Cullen saying to me once and I was like why and he said because if the last place you
• 46:00 - 46:30 were living was a Somalian refugee camp then you don't mind coming here and and sweeping pig blood and cutting the hind off a pig every Like that's the comparison between the two a lot of people come from rural like the the the um when back when I was in Oakland I did this like um volunteer thing for asyles coming from Guatemala most of them came from rural Guatemala right because it was like they that's where they were fleeing right like there was no money and and like the gangs were that were you know doing the drug trade were kind
• 46:30 - 47:00 of taking over these communities yeah in the rural Yeah the Right and so it makes sense that they would go to a farm part of America right so just the idea that those are unggetable voters I don't believe that's true um I agree not ungettable winning the whole state of Iowa it's a long but you never know they got to be on you got to be on the field to win I guess is the uh is the first piece of evidence for it let Donald Trump be every person with polic political aspirations model did
• 47:00 - 47:30 anyone on planet Earth think he was going to be president once actually twice no and so like this idea it's not worth it don't try every vote counts try i agree with that run for something people run for something all right uh let's get back to tax day and disclose on that because I was interested in your conversation about it last night um and you know everybody's got it on their mind right now listening to this having been stressed doing their you know tax you know filling out their PDFs last night um but uh what you know I I was
• 47:30 - 48:00 interested in your conversation because like the gutting of the IRS that Doge has done right how to make how this come right we're sitting here saying we we we're going to bring money in this country through tariffs we're going to get rid of all these workers that's how we're going to improve things no if we just collected our taxes right we leave so much money on the floor and the way we won't do that is if we have employed tax
• 48:00 - 48:30 professionals but instead we're gutting the IRS we're having thousands of people opt in for the you know the layoffs the early retirement which is crazy because if people aren't working at the IRS they're not going to collect their taxes and the people they're not going to collect their taxes from are from the wealthiest people who know how to you know who aren't just making a regular paycheck you know the people who can put trusts here there and everywhere they can avoid paying taxes and and if if you really wanted to improve the IRS or
• 48:30 - 49:00 improve our tax system what I would love to see is the great minds of Doge those great tech leaders that surrounded Donald Trump at the inauguration I would love for them to come into the government volunteer their brain power and their effort and improve our system okay the the computer system that the IRS works on is called Cobalt it is so old that when there are kinks and problems with it there aren't even humans alive who know that system to fix
• 49:00 - 49:30 it so you've got the IRS the most important agency in the government that brings in the tax dollars that we need to service this country working with one hand tied behind their back and now 20 plus percent of them are potentially out the door this to me is such a grave mistake and oversight and it shows that is the government is this administration really looking to tighten up the screws and and bring things in that's not the case given how they're treating the IRS right now yeah it's funny how out of
• 49:30 - 50:00 vogue that has come in like 20 like the Obama administration that's was something they tried to do and just didn't really take that well was right like bring in these tech like and technocratic folks to update the way the government does things and it's just like that isn't even in the discussion with all these guys like you have all these Silicon Valley guys coming in I know it's so absurd with like what we now have in this bro wokeness of like Trump wins and it's like electric cars forget them big cole bring it on back like who is who is Big coal going to
• 50:00 - 50:30 help like you want to help us Virginia let's bring industry there let's bring new jobs there nobody should be looking to bring back the black lung all right I lied i have one last topic because it's too funny not to mention i was on blue sky mark Cuban bullied me into getting on blue sky and uh here we go i I got my payoff this guy John Keenan Keegan excuse me uh you have you noticed those ornate gold medallions that are now up in the Oval Office they're kind of the the goaudy Trump tower type things you know I've also noticed some members in
• 50:30 - 51:00 the administration are wearing these gold buttons that are Trump's face that's classy um well John John Keegan found those medallions on Alibaba uh they are high density home decoration poly urethane ple ornament PU foam veneer accessories from a seller in Guanghou so it's lucky they got them in before the terrorists listen that that's the forever reminder that every product Donald Trump has ever made has been
• 51:00 - 51:30 produced overseas and and this idea right if you and I wanted to end this podcast and go walk through the garment district of New York or or take a deep look at at at clothing and home design and furniture manufacturing in the United States we have some furniture manufacturing but apparel mo home decor we don't do that here and so it's absurd and and the thing is Trump knows that his families know that go to any of his homes go to Mara Lago like if people wanted if they truly wanted to buy in
• 51:30 - 52:00 the USA to buy from made in the USA we would be there but our president along with the American people made a decision years ago that wasn't a priority for us and that's why the gold medallions in the White House and probably the ones in yours are made overseas thanks to the maker of Gu in Guanghou though for fancying up our White House um Steph Rule thank you for your passion thanks for coming back on we'll do it again soon i'll see you on the 11th hour i don't know next week or in a week or two welcome back from Coachella oh it's
• 52:00 - 52:30 so great i'm finally at 100 i had some comments from people that said I I was not looking that good the last two days and you know people I don't need that all right i I I you think I don't know that I was looking a little worn out but I was here i was grinding i was podcasting and that's just part of the deal i mean I love when people rail on what I look like especially like when I go on podcast like what does she look like and I'm like you know what i'm so I I was unaware that this was that you and I were here competing for Mr and Miss
• 52:30 - 53:00 Universe but I saw you getting your party on at Coachella and I just thought I mean I just thought it was amazing who was your favorite performer i'm guessing Gaga gaga is obviously my favorite of the of the subperformers that maybe people haven't heard of amare was my favorite and uh she is like a Ghan R&B like a little EDM kind of a little rock it's just it's a it's it's very it's very very good uh there you go well welcome home thank you Steph we'll see you soon we'll see you back here
• 53:00 - 53:30 tomorrow peace see you [Music]