ICT Concepts - FOMC Decoded 🌐

Summary

In RealTraderTim's latest video, he unravels the intricacies of FOMC day, guiding viewers through the methodology behind understanding market trends and price movements. The focus is on simplification, helping traders make sense of seemingly complex data. The lesson emphasizes identifying liquidity pools and reading price narratives built from higher to lower time frames. Throughout, he stresses the importance of patience and discipline in mastering these trading strategies. This comprehensive session endeavors to bolster traders' confidence in navigating market fluctuations effectively.

Highlights

• Learn how to simplify complex market data for better comprehension and strategy formulation 🎯.
• Understand the significance of liquidity pools and price narratives in setting a directional bias 📈.
• Embrace patience and discipline as core components of a successful trading mindset 🤔.
• Discover strategies to interpret price actions during FOMC days to enhance trade outcomes 💡.
• Explore the benefits of analyzing overlapping time frames to predict market moves effectively 📊.

Key Takeaways

• Tim emphasizes the value of simplifying complex trading concepts for more effective understanding and application 🎯.
• Recognizing liquidity pools and crafting a price narrative are crucial steps in defining a directional bias 📈.
• Tim reveals the importance of patience and discipline in executing successful trades within volatile markets 🤔.
• The session decodes how price action on FOMC day impacts trading strategies and decision-making 💡.
• Understanding the overlap of time frames and price patterns essential for mastering market behavior 📊.

Overview

In this insightful session with RealTraderTim, traders dive deep into the dynamics of FOMC day. Tim demystifies the concept of simplifying complex market strategies, stressing the significance of identifying clear liquidity pools and interpreting price narratives to build a directional bias from higher to lower time frames.

The video highlights the necessity of coupling patience and discipline with technical analysis. By pacing through various time frames, Tim illustrates how traders can align their strategies with market movements, especially during significant events like FOMC announcements. He emphasizes the importance of waiting for confirmatory signals before jumping into trades.

Towards the end, RealTraderTim underlines the critical role of understanding overlapping time frames and price action patterns to navigate market fluctuations confidently. This session is crafted not just to provide clarity but also to equip traders with the mindset necessary for sustained success.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Overview of FOMC Day analysis This chapter introduces the focus on FOMC Day analysis, highlighting the goal to decode key takeaways and maintain simplicity in trading.
• 00:30 - 01:30: Drawing on Liquidity and Identifying High Probability Liquidity Pools The chapter titled 'Drawing on Liquidity and Identifying High Probability Liquidity Pools' focuses on the strategies for identifying liquidity within financial markets. The discussion emphasizes the need for a clear draw on liquidity as the primary consideration. It explains the importance of identifying high-probability liquidity pools, which are areas in the market where significant trading activity can be expected. The process involves recognizing specific market signatures to construct a narrative that helps traders establish a directional bias, starting from a higher time frame and narrowing down. This foundational strategy is intended to guide traders in making informed decisions based on market liquidity movements.
• 01:30 - 02:30: Understanding Price Signatures and Directional Bias The chapter explores the concept of price signatures and their impact on market direction. It emphasizes the importance of waiting for order flow to support trading models once a price signature is identified. It highlights the significance of understanding 'power of three' and how most candles have wicks on both sides, indicating potential market moves. The concept applies to all significant timeframes, suggesting a universal approach to reading market signs.
• 02:30 - 03:30: Analysis of Candle Wicks and Building a Narrative The chapter 'Analysis of Candle Wicks and Building a Narrative' explores how the presence of a wick on one side of a candle can be used to develop a narrative about price movement. The text explains that when the wick indicates a certain direction, and this indication is coupled with other signals pointing in the same direction, it gives a strong suggestion of where the price will likely head. The importance of considering multiple time frames, such as weekly ones, in forming a strong directional bias is also noted in the discussion.
• 03:30 - 04:30: The Importance of Bottomless Candles The chapter titled 'The Importance of Bottomless Candles' discusses the significance of daily candles in trading, particularly focusing on instances where the daily candle does not have a bottom wick before the market opens. This is exemplified using the ES (E-mini S&P 500) candle, which had no bottom wick prior to the 9:30 am session start, contrasting with NASDAQ which did have a small wick. The transcript highlights the relevance of these bottomless candles across different time frames, such as 4-hour and 1-hour, although the primary focus remains on the daily candle. The importance and implications of these market conditions are likely explored further in the context of trading strategies or market analysis.
• 04:30 - 05:30: Dissecting May 7th's Price Action in the 1-hour Time Frame The chapter focuses on analyzing the NASDAQ 1-hour time frame, specifically the price action on May 7th. The discussion is centered around the events occurring right after the New Day open at 6 p.m. Eastern time on May 6th, leading into May 7th.
• 05:30 - 06:30: Sellside Delivery and Bearish Order Flow The chapter discusses the concept of sellside delivery and bearish order flow, focusing on how certain chart patterns and candlestick wicks indicate potential market movements. The presence or absence of wicks, particularly in daily candles, is emphasized. The example given describes how the lack of a wick on the ES daily candle suggests a likelihood of price moving downward. This information is utilized to identify signatures in charts that support sellside delivery and bearish order flow trends.
• 06:30 - 07:30: 4-hour Time Frame Analysis and False SMT Discussion The chapter delves into analysis on the 4-hour time frame, emphasizing the observation of a specific 4-hour candle, which corresponds to the new day's hourly open. The analysis highlights the absence of a lower wick on this candle, indicating a lack of manipulation below the new day open, suggesting a potential draw on liquidity. This observation is pivotal for understanding market behavior within this time frame.
• 07:30 - 08:30: High-Time Frame Trend and Correction Movements This chapter focuses on the analysis of high-time frame trends and the movements that correct these trends, specifically through the lens of chart analysis. The discussion revolves around identifying patterns and adding to the narrative of technical chart interpretations. It highlights the concept of a 'false SMT' (Smart Money Trap), a pattern observed since the weekly market open. The analysis is not overcomplicated but grounded in observing delivery patterns over time. By examining charts, especially with reference to notable features like a 'bottomless wick' seen in previous slides, the chapter enriches understanding of trend formations and potential corrections.
• 08:30 - 09:30: Analyzing Equilibrium and Previous Day Low This chapter discusses the importance of analyzing equilibrium and the previous day's low in a bullish market trend. It explains the concept of downside manipulation, which tends to occur below old lows within a discount. The chapter uses the example of an SMT (Smart Money Technique) that, upon forming, led to a significant upward push. However, it is noted that on days with substantial economic events, such as an FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, market volatility is likely, which could disrupt this pattern.
• 09:30 - 10:30: Directional Bias and Probabilities In this chapter titled 'Directional Bias and Probabilities,' the focus is on market behavior and potential price movements. The discussion revolves around the idea that the market may move lower before resuming an upward trend. There is an analysis of certain candlestick patterns, such as a bottomless candle and the absence of a lower wick, suggesting the possibility of a false bullish signal. The chapter emphasizes understanding the market's dealing range and connecting various indicators to anticipate the direction of price movements.
• 10:30 - 11:30: Intraday Market Dynamics and Rejection Signs The chapter titled 'Intraday Market Dynamics and Rejection Signs' delves into understanding directional bias in trading. It emphasizes the importance of positioning after establishing a clear directional bias. The chapter also examines the transition from an overnight trading session into the New York session, focusing on a one-hour time frame analysis. The concept of equilibrium and the significance of the previous day's low are highlighted, particularly in contexts where specific market tools or indicators (like SMT) may not be available.
• 11:30 - 12:30: Using Quadrants on Charts for Analysis The chapter 'Using Quadrants on Charts for Analysis' discusses the identification of high probability sellside liquidity pools on charts. It explains that such liquidity pools often appear as daily lows right above the equilibrium or discount line of a dealing range in a bullish higher time frame trend. The chapter further discusses the concept of SMT (Smart Money Technique) suggesting that once SMT has moved to a discount and reversal signs are observed, it indicates a protected low, which aligns with a bullish day and narrative.
• 12:30 - 13:30: New Day Opening Gap and Rejection Signatures The chapter 'New Day Opening Gap and Rejection Signatures' discusses market behavior related to equilibrium and price movements, particularly focusing on how a price that falls short of equilibrium can be suspect and might predict further decline. It explores the likelihood of price moving to a 'bottomless candle' level, emphasizing thinking in terms of probabilities and anticipating movements towards discount levels using specific tools.
• 13:30 - 14:30: Bearish SMT and Directional Bias Confirmation In the chapter titled 'Bearish SMT and Directional Bias Confirmation', the focus is on understanding market behavior through the lens of probability. The discussion revolves around analyzing the hourly chart to identify significant gaps and inefficiencies in price movement. Key observations are made around the 'new day open' levels, highlighting their importance in tracking market conditions. The narrative emphasizes that certain sell-side objectives remain unfulfilled, suggesting continued attention to these indicators for a comprehensive market analysis.
• 14:30 - 15:30: Positioning with a Bearish Order Flow The chapter 'Positioning with a Bearish Order Flow' discusses the concept of bearish order flow in trading, focusing on identifying and evaluating market patterns that suggest a decline in asset value. It explores the significance of weekly candle manipulations and underscores the importance of opening gaps. The chapter highlights the inability of market bodies to close inside certain gaps, indicating resistance levels or psychological barriers. Furthermore, the discussion includes the examination of a bearish SMT (Smart Money Technique) where an index, NASDAQ, fails to achieve higher highs, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Through these observations, traders can better understand market behaviors and align their trading strategies accordingly.
• 15:30 - 16:30: Progressing Further into Lower Time Frames The chapter delves into the analysis of lower time frames, specifically focusing on an hourly chart at midnight. It examines the S&P 500 and highlights a bearish signal related to price action occurring above the midnight opening price within a significant inefficiency – the new day opening gap from the previous day. Discussions up to this point have been about weighing probabilities and building strategies based on these observations.
• 16:30 - 17:30: Analyzing Morning and Opening Range Dynamics In this chapter titled 'Analyzing Morning and Opening Range Dynamics', the focus is on understanding market movements at the beginning of the trading day. The narrative suggests a potential need for price correction or discounting, targeting specific market levels such as the current day's opening gap, lows, and the previous day's low in equilibrium. The chapter emphasizes constructing a coherent narrative to anticipate market trends and validate directional biases, particularly towards sell-side activity. It involves identifying market 'signatures' that align with the established analysis to support and further justify trading decisions.
• 25:30 - 26:30: Understanding FOMC Day Profiles and Stages This chapter delves into the concept of FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) day profiles and the different stages involved. It discusses trading strategies involving bearish order flow and analysis of chart patterns, particularly focusing on a one-minute chart during a trading session. The importance of identifying significant market levels, such as the London high, is emphasized as a part of the trading strategy. There is mention of SMT (Smart Money Technique) as a tool for analysis.
• 26:30 - 27:30: Higher Time Frame Perspective and Trend Analysis during FOMC This chapter discusses the higher time frame perspective and trend analysis in the context of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. It highlights an instance where the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) was surpassing its 1-hour midnight high, while the NASDAQ struggled to do the same. The chapter emphasizes the importance of recognizing a bearish narrative, particularly when discrepancies like a SMT (Smart Money Technique) appear within significant market inefficiencies, such as the new day opening gap. The focus is on understanding the interactions and implications of these events in market analysis.
• 27:30 - 28:30: Intraday Analysis and Protection of Key Levels The chapter discusses the importance of using quadrants on a trading chart to better understand market movements, particularly when dealing with large opening gaps. It emphasizes that quadrants are only applied in circumstances of significant market activity and are crucial for identifying bearish patterns, reversal points, and potential highs. The chapter underscores the benefit of these tools in gaining deeper insights into the market dynamics and decision-making.
• 28:30 - 29:30: Afternoon Stage of FOMC Day The chapter titled 'Afternoon Stage of FOMC Day' discusses the concept of new day opening gaps and their implications on market trends. It highlights the significance of these gaps in indicating potential bearish trends. The narrative elaborates on how the failure to reach the high or even the upper quadrant of a new day opening gap after a reversal confirmation signals market weakness. This foundational understanding underscores the importance of identifying fair value gaps and inefficiencies to anticipate lower prices effectively. The chapter emphasizes the analytical approach needed to interpret these market signals during the Afternoon Stage of FOMC Day.
• 29:30 - 30:00: Conclusion and Final Thoughts on FOMC Analysis The conclusion chapter focuses on analyzing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and the implications of price movements in the market. It discusses the indicators of market strength or weakness in relation to directional bias, specifically within a bearish perspective. The emphasis is on identifying signs of weakness, particularly if prices fail to reach expected levels and then reverse. This analysis is key to understanding potential market movements and making informed trading decisions.

ICT Concepts - FOMC Decoded 🌐 Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 Hello everybody and welcome back to another video. So as you can see here, this lesson is going to be on FOMC day. We're going to decode some of the delivery that occurred today. There's a lot of key takeaways blending together all the concepts that we always utilize and our goal always in our trading and when I'm speaking to you guys as well is to keep it as simple as possible. So that's going to be the goal here. Okay. So getting right into it, I
• 00:30 - 01:00 want to talk about what we see here on this slide. Okay, our priority is a clear draw on liquidity. Then we utilize our knowledge of and I should say our ability to identify a high probability liquidity pool and we look for these little signatures to start to build a narrative and by extension build a directional bias from the higher time frame down. And the most important thing, okay, so when I see this
• 01:00 - 01:30 signature, this is a strong strong sign to me that price is likely to gravitate down here at some point. I just need to wait for order flow to support that and ultimately again my model. So notable time frames where I look for this signature. It really applies to all because you know you guys understand power of three and if you look at the majority of candles there's wicks on both sides. Okay. And if we don't see a
• 01:30 - 02:00 wick on one side of the candle we can start to build a narrative for price getting back down to that wick. Now having this understanding coupling it with other ways to build a directional bias. When we have those other waves that are in the same direction as where this bottomless wick is, bottomless candle I should say, we really get a strong idea of where price is likely to head towards. Okay, so not uh notable, excuse me, time frames as you see here, weekly,
• 02:00 - 02:30 daily, 4 hour, 1 hour. That being said, typically they will be um you know the same thing. So this example is going to portray that. So imagine this is the daily candle and this is what the daily candle on ES looked like today um with absolutely no bottom wick to start uh the day session prior to 9:30 open. NASDAQ did have a small little wick and this is NASDAQ on the right
• 02:30 - 03:00 side. Okay, but as you see here um NASDAQ this is the 1 hour time frame we're going to be dissecting. This is actually should be saying um May 7th's delivery. That's the price action we're going to be dissecting. So today, Wednesday, May 7th. So that's just a little typo there, just so we're clear. And QM2025. So here, this is the New Day open. So this is the hourly chart right after the new day open. So yesterday at 6 p.m. Eastern time, we zoomed right up.
• 03:00 - 03:30 We do have a little wick here, but coupling the fact um with it's not that much of a prominent wick, but really understanding that ES also had no wick at the bottom of its respective daily candle at all gives us a strong idea that price is likely to get down here. And once we've established this, we just look for other signatures in the chart that supports what? Sellside delivery, bearish order flow. Okay. So,
• 03:30 - 04:00 progressing forward, now we are on the 4hour time frame. Okay. What else do we see? So, right here, see this 4hour candle? That's the same thing as if I go back one slide this hourly open, the new day open, right? See how there's virtually back on the 4 hour right here, no lower wick, right? So, there's been no manipulation below that new day open. So that's already a likely draw on liquidity right now.
• 04:00 - 04:30 What else do we notice from this chart and what else can we add to that narrative from the previous slide with the bottomless wick? Okay, this here we discussed in the weekly outlook or really I should say actually um today's preparation this being a false SMT, right? And it's not some complicated signature. It's just the fact that we're looking at delivery since weekly open, right? Higher time
• 04:30 - 05:00 frame trend has been bullish. So, if we're going to see that higher time frame trend continue, what do we want to see first? Downside manipulation. So, where is that downside manipulation likely to occur? Below old lows, but in a discount. Okay, so when we formed this SMT, we did see a decent push up, but recall again today's FOMC, which is a highly volatile um event news release. So, it's likely that even if we're going
• 05:00 - 05:30 to continue higher, you know, it's not a crazy idea that we're going to come down here to discount first and then resume higher. Okay, so already we're stacking what we discussed with this bottomless candle here, this lack of a lower wick with the new day open and the likelihood that this is a false bullish SMT because we're still just right above discount of this clear dealing range. Okay, and coupling these things and and what we'll
• 05:30 - 06:00 continue to talk about, we get a really good idea of directional bias. Then we just have to find our positioning. Okay, next slide here. What do we see from the overnight session as it progresses and will progress into the New York session of course. So now we've moved down into the one hour time frame. So at the bottom of the chart here, what do you see? Equilibrium and this is previous day low. So again, if we didn't have knowledge of this SMT and we were
• 06:00 - 06:30 just looking at this chart here, this is a high probability sellside liquidity pool. A daily low right above equilibrium or discount of a dealing range when higher time frame trend has been bullish. Again, if we had this SMT already delivered to a discount and then start to see reversal signatures, I would have more confidence in this being a protected low or in other words, a bullish day, bullish narrative and us
• 06:30 - 07:00 not coming down here. But since it fell short of that equilibrium, that tells me it's a little suspect. And again, let's imagine that price is going to come down to this bottomless candle where we don't have this wick. At that point, think in terms of probabilities. Isn't it likely that's probably just going to come down here anyways? Yes. So, if that's likely, what is it probably going to do anyways? Go down to discount. Right? So, see how we're utilizing these tools to build a
• 07:00 - 07:30 narrative thinking in terms of probability. Okay. Now, back to the hourly chart. What do we see again? And look how right at yesterday's new day open, we zoomed back up. So this is today's new day opening gap. And above here, this is previous day new day opening gap. So it's still a significant inefficiency. It's still important to watch these levels. Okay, we get above this new day opening gap and then we get back below and look what we start to see, right? We still have sellside objectives that are not completed
• 07:30 - 08:00 because we haven't seen manipulation for the weekly candle. Okay, we're getting below this new day opening gap. delivering to it here. Bodies are respecting it. We can't even close inside of it here. Again, trying here. Can't reach the top. And even look at this push down. We can't even close inside of it there. Again, rejection. Again, rejection again. Again. And once more right here, we see a bearish SMT where NASDAQ, as you can see, is failing to take this higher high that formed
• 08:00 - 08:30 here on this hourly chart right at midnight. Okay. while S&P did in fact take that. Okay. And where is that occurring above midnight opening price inside of a significant inefficiency which is the new day opening gap from yesterday. Okay. So this is a strong bearish signature. Right? So the slides and charts and everything we've discussed up until this point were weighing probabilities and building the
• 08:30 - 09:00 likelihood that we probably need to go lower to discount here and by extension to these lows to this new day opening gap from today this low here previous day low in equilibrium. Right? So, we're establishing a narrative, putting the pieces of the puzzle together, and then looking for signatures going further to not only support our directional bias of, you know, sellside delivery here, but to find
• 09:00 - 09:30 trades and find uh, you know, position ourselves in line with that narrative, in line with that bearish order flow. So, if we progress lower, this is now the one minute chart, and we're looking at what occurred right around 7:30 today. So, it's not on this chart, and this can be a little homework. It's not uh too complicated, but go look at where London high is. NASDAQ is coming to sweep London high here. And this light bulb again, a couple things. We're seeing this SMT
• 09:30 - 10:00 occur. So, at this moment, ES was taking out this 1 hour midnight high. NASDAQ is failing to right here. Right? So this one minute fractal is just this high depicted on the one minute time frame. Okay. So understanding the bearish narrative we have built understanding we're seeing a SMT within a significant inefficiency the new day opening gap. when we have a
• 10:00 - 10:30 large more prominent new day opening gap like this. This is why I put the quadrants on the chart and why we include them in the indicator so it plots it for us. Right now, if it's a smaller new day opening gap, I won't put the quadrants on because I won't need them and I don't want to overanalyze. But to get a more precise idea of bearish signatures, where we are reversing from, and just more insight relative to a potential high and a potential turning point, I want these levels on the chart. So, as you can see here, two
• 10:30 - 11:00 things. Foundational understanding of fair value gaps in general, inefficiencies, but a new day opening gap. If we're bearish and we come up into a new day opening gap, we still have reason to expect lower prices as we've painted this whole lesson here. Failure to reach the high of the new day opening gap when we get our reversal confirmation is a signature of weakness. Take that one step further. Failure to reach the upper quadrant of the new day opening gap is a I should say heavier
• 11:00 - 11:30 signature, right? A more prominent sign of weakness, right? I'm trying not to say stronger weakness, you know, it's it's a contradicts itself. So here again, if we were to fail to reach CE and then reverse, that's a a more prominent sign of weakness, right? But now price is still allowed to come up here. It's just about gauging strength or gauging weakness depending on directional bias. So we're bearish, right? If and when price comes up here,
• 11:30 - 12:00 I want to see the initial signs of rejection. And what is that? Price is delivering to 50% or consequent encroachment of the new day opening gap. But look at this strong wick away. And what do you notice? The body's respecting because the bodies tell the story. Not only 50% of the new day opening gap, but look at the lower quadrant. We wicked up there, which is allowed and that's fine. But right here, we can't close above the lower quadrant. Neither can we here. Neither can we
• 12:00 - 12:30 here. And neither can we here where this high is made. Even when we have this larger wick up to CE, we come right back down and reject. So when we start to see these rejection signatures along with the narrative we've painted up to this point looking at the higher time frames understanding weekly manipulation distribution trend everything high probability sellside liquidity pools we can get a really really good idea of what the market is
• 12:30 - 13:00 telling us right after we see this rejection we're just waiting for confirmation that bullish order flow on this lower time frame is breaking down. And there's a ton of that seen here in this whole buy side of the curve. I just didn't want to include it all because the chart would look like a mess with all these annotations and drawings on it. Right? But again, the key the the most simple understanding is that we have reason to
• 13:00 - 13:30 be bearish. This is a strong the significant inefficiency is a you know likely place that we could reverse from. Add in the bearish SMT on the one hour chart that we saw and identified. Then we just wait for these lower time frame reversal signatures if you want to keep it simple. And we have these consecutive bissies right here with this cibby passing through. So this is a balanced price range. But even again as I mentioned I didn't want to put too much on the chart. We have a little bissy right here. Right. We have look at these
• 13:30 - 14:00 two consecutive bissies here sent us higher. You guys know once we close below that what is that high probability bearish inversion. What did it do here? Closed below came up into it sent us to these sellside objectives. Okay. And note where all of this is occurring inside the new day opening gap but above midnight opening price. Okay. So you guys know that I'm big on macros. I've mentioned this before, but I'll reiterate it. If we're operating between
• 14:00 - 14:30 macro windows, I typically will require an SMT a clear depiction on what's occurring. I don't want to rush in rush into, excuse me, any trade in general, but especially if I'm operating between those macro windows because I understand and you guys understand how powerful macros are and the macro power of three model. Okay, so we're seeing that SMT with the hourly chart rejection off of a clear significant inefficiency, clear bearish
• 14:30 - 15:00 order flow and bullish order flow here on the lower time frame start to break down. We have relative equal lows here, another low here and this is the conservative targeting. We still have all the overarching sell side we mentioned from the new day opening gap from today, previous day low, further below market price. what you see here that we will get to of course um and equilibrium of the large dealing range on the higher time frame that we discussed right so we can use all this to build a narrative of
• 15:00 - 15:30 sellside delivery of favoring shorts and then we can take conservative more this is still a great move but to be a consistent profitable trader we don't need to catch the whole entire move all the way down we need to build our narrative identify a reversal like this find our entry and get our piece right of Of course, we can hold runners and stuff, but the point is repeatable logic, repeatable moves in paying the trader. Okay, so moving forward, we're
• 15:30 - 16:00 going to actually go back up to the hourly chart. So, this candle right here is the 9:00 a.m. hourly candle. So, just to talk about our perspective prior to 9:30 open and upon 9:30 open, right? This is the hourly candle. This is right at 10 a.m. close technically. So, what else can we take away from this? Well, we did see lower prices not only in the previous slide rejection off of what we saw right here. But,
• 16:00 - 16:30 additionally, we still have dealing range equilibrium that we did not deliver to. Additionally, we still have previous day low that we didn't deliver to. And now what do we see they did with the opening range low, a session low? They brought it just short of today's new day opening gap, which we know is a bias footprint, a high probability sellside liquidity pool. Okay. Now, looking at where manipulation could occur if we're looking for shorts, what
• 16:30 - 17:00 do we want to see? We don't want to see it just dump right down there, right? We want to see manipulation in a premium, okay? running buy side liquidity internally which we we will see right if we have this SMT up here which is a strong bearish signature okay and we still have not met our sellside objectives this should function as a protected high take that one step further we can utilize this for our refined hourly
• 17:00 - 17:30 dealing range high okay to gauge premium and discount and if we're short and we're expecting sellside objectives to be met. We want to see price reach up for a premium and look for short setups, bearish confirmation within this premium. Now, what else do you notice about what's residing in this premium? This 1 hour cibby, this 1 hour bearish fair value gap. And if this is a protected high, we've already delivered
• 17:30 - 18:00 to the new day opening gap. I don't want to see us get this high. This is the only place that it's likely for us to reject from. Right? If we are true in our assumption that this move lower is going to occur. Okay, so this is quite a large hourly cibby. Okay, so we can just like we did with the new day opening gaps in the previous slide, measure the quadrants of this to get a more precise idea of how price is delivering relative to this hourly cibby. Get more insight
• 18:00 - 18:30 on, okay, we're seeing rejection off this level. everything that we've talked about relative to quadrants on this channel before and that we're going to break down right here. Okay, so again, as I've discussed narrative leading into 9:30 New York open, right? Why? Let me back up for a second. Why we're not just saying, okay, we dump lower, we're just going to fade it all the way back to the high, right? Because we still have sellside objectives, right? So, this isn't one of those moments where it's Asia or London um accumulation 9:30 open manipulation then
• 18:30 - 19:00 reversal because we still haven't had the weekly delivery to discount here and we still have a bunch of sellside objectives and then taking what the market gives us upon 9:30 open with the opening range. We're seeing more engineered sellside short of this new day opening gap, right? So, we still have reason to be continually bearish until those sellside objectives are met. So, key signatures, understanding narrative, the the picture we've painted ahead of 9:30
• 19:00 - 19:30 open. Number one, we're still lacking that weekly sellside manipulation. Number two, we have that bottomless daily candle. Number three, we have bearish order flow overnight. So, that SMT, the protected high. And then upon opening range, as we've discussed, we have that engineered sellside liquidity falling short right above today's new day opening gap. Right? So, we still have clear reasons to be bearish. Okay. Now, let's go to the one minute time frame and look at what did occur. As you
• 19:30 - 20:00 can see, I have copied and pasted that one hour cibby to this one minute time frame to see how price delivered relative to this inefficiency. Okay. So let's talk about where we delivered from. So the time axis is down here. So 9:30 open was right around here. And what did we see occur? Okay, we went up, came down, and we formed this low, the opening range low that we mentioned is falling just short of today's new day opening gap. So on top of the
• 20:00 - 20:30 overarching narrative of us not reaching down for discount yet having previous day low right above equilibrium of the higher time frame range. This is a signature that shows me this is likely to just be engineered built up sellside liquidity that's going to be returned to later after the manipulation. We're just waiting for clear manipulation and clear reversal signatures. Okay. So we are seeing higher prices. Okay. So, if I've built that bearish narrative, just because I see the market go up, am I just going to chase it? No, I'm not.
• 20:30 - 21:00 Right? We've established a narrative. I don't want to be a buyer. Right? We enter this CBI and what do we see? Again, price is reaching into premium of the overnight range. Again, to reiterate, this range here into this hourly cibby. Now, we're looking for any signs of reversal. Okay? Okay, we're reaching for this bottom yellow line is the quad the lower quadrant. So bottom quadrant 50%, upper quadrant of course
• 21:00 - 21:30 low and high of the civi. Okay. Did price reach the top of the cibby? No. Did it reach the upper quadrant of the cibby? No. Did it reach 50%? Yes. Now it's important to see what occurs here. We're coming down here and leaving engineered sellside, right? Smooth edges here. We're leaving this low right on the top of the 9:30 first presentation fair value gap. We have the opening range low just above the new day opening gap. We're in a higher time frame in efficiency that it's likely we are going
• 21:30 - 22:00 to reject from. We're above 10 a.m. opening price. We're above 9:30 opening price. Everything's checking out. We're just waiting for reversal signatures. Okay. Now, right here, this high to this high is an SMT, right? It's just dragged out for a little more clarity because if I just anchored it to those two, it it's not clear. Um, but we're seeing that crack in correlation. And where is it occurring? And what happens after we take out this high ES fails to
• 22:00 - 22:30 okay, that's occurring right at CE of the 1 hour civi right here. We close below this up close candle after an SMT. How do you guys know in RTO we classify this a high probability bearish order block and cherry on top it's right at consequent encroachment right at 50% of the hourly cibby okay and with these high probability PD rays high probability
• 22:30 - 23:00 order blocks in this case this white line is what mean threshold or 50%. If we deliver to that, we want to see price reject off of that when we're bearish, like it does here, like it does here, like it does here, once more into the lower portion of the order block, then displaces away. Okay, taking a step further again for clarity, I didn't include it because I wanted to include the totality of this fractal of price zoomed out like you see here. But if you look at this little cibby right here, we close below that after an SMT and that
• 23:00 - 23:30 sends us lower as well. additional confirmation and again with smart money handshaking I've discussed before what do we see a close above CE what should have happened if we were going to see continued bullish delivery we should have came into this order block nested in this bissy and went higher right but what occurs instead high probability bearish order block with the SMT closed back below the lower quadrant closed back below the bottom of
• 23:30 - 24:00 the hourly cibby and What occurs here? Open into the bottom of that CBI. There's nothing left for price to do up here. Displace lower. Okay. What's in the way of the entry when when price was up here? The order block while we were on route to sell side the 930 first presentation fair value gap. So that's a roadblock. We want to see price close below that for confirmation we're on side. And then technically if sellside objectives aren't met, which they still haven't been, we want to see it do what? Push
• 24:00 - 24:30 price lower. So this is why it's important to have this level on your chart. And again, this is plotted for you with the indicator just like the opening range low, just like the new day opening gap, right? And macro windows. But again, what did I mention um in the previous example when we were looking at pre-market delivery? If we're in between macro windows, what do I typically require in SMT? Do we see that here? Yep. Okay. And we see delivery lower. So
• 24:30 - 25:00 if we want to see this 930 fair value gap push price lower and we have two cibbies above that best case what do these get classified as and remain as while we are completing sellside objectives breakaway gaps price comes up into it right it's not getting up there so it's showing us it's prioritizing sellside objectives over premium one minute inefficiencies in our understanding of smoke screens with high probability inversions macro inversions first presentation fair value gap
• 25:00 - 25:30 all significant inefficiencies as we've discussed gives us insight on how we can anticipate breakaway gaps. Okay, so really really nice delivery here. Okay, so that was the morning um up until this point. Now we're going to talk about the afternoon and the FOMC delivery. So with any profile, not just FOMC, we have these likely scenarios
• 25:30 - 26:00 that typically occur. Right? So with FOMC, as you see here, it's it's a two-stage event. stage one, stage two, and I'm going to continue into this where at 2 p.m. this data release first will likely serve as the fake move and then at 2:30 p.m. when the chairman speaks, it'll be the stage two event where price will likely serve as the quote real move or reversal. Okay? Now, these profiles, they're not guaranteed and they don't apply to every news release, every FOMC
• 26:00 - 26:30 release, right? We have an understanding that this is likely but then we need order flow to support this profile when it makes sense. So another thing that comes to mind is the profile of lunch macro is or lunch session I should say is likely to run against profitable AM session traders. Now does every lunch session reverse against the AM session trends?
• 26:30 - 27:00 No. Right? But if we have reason to expect a reversal, looking at the charts, understanding order flow is supporting that profile, that's just when we get a really good idea of what is occurring and how we can position ourselves well. So the same thing with FOMC. We can have this understanding of this two-stage delivery, but we need to see it supported by price, right? Why should stage one be the manipulation, the fake move, and why should we expect
• 27:00 - 27:30 stage two to be a reversal? Okay, so we're going to talk about this. So, back up to the 4our time frame. You can see what occurred here. 2 p.m. um new hourly candle on the 4 hour came down, went up. Okay, so recall we said this on stream this morning and what we discuss here in the review here. This is likely to be a false SMT, right? Price is likely to seek discount first and by extension invalidating that. Now, does that mean
• 27:30 - 28:00 I'm just automatically bearish on the higher time frame? No. It's just saying I'm prioritizing discount in this case over this SMT, right? and a expecting manipulation there and b this is a place that we can expect to bounce from. Okay, so let's copy this level 19690.25 down to the one minute time frame and dissect this FOMC delivery. So again, this was a day where
• 28:00 - 28:30 FOMC understanding the stage one and stage two profile did pan out because it was supported by order flow, right? higher time frame trend has been bullish. And what do we see? Price is going lower, leaving behind clear engineered buyside liquidity, trend line liquidity here. That's what we want to see. And we're running manipulation. So running, excuse me, during manipulation, we're running sellside. So this is 2 p.m. Eastern time open. We're running what? A session low. The AM session low. And we're continuing
• 28:30 - 29:00 lower to run previous day low. Now look at where we're stopping. the dealing range equilibrium pasted from the higher time frame. This is a one minute chart. Look at the bodies respecting this once, twice, three, four, five times. Right? Those are the signatures we look for from key reference points from higher time frame levels. Additionally, what else do we see? There's an SMT occurring at this
• 29:00 - 29:30 level, right? So this is a strong strong signature just looking at order flow of a reversal and then also our understanding of a likely FOMC profile the two-stage delivery where stage one is fake, stage two is a real move reversal. We're getting a really good idea of what's occurring. Okay. So, we progress higher and we see 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. The beginning of
• 29:30 - 30:00 stage two, we go higher, we come lower, higher again, and then we retrace. But stage one, what did it do? Manipulate. And this is a protected low respect of a higher time frame level in line with the higher time frame trend with an SMT. So, if I want to see higher prices and buy side objectives get met, lunch high, AM session high, and if you're looking at your own charts, there's much more above this that we should deliver to, um, those buy side objectives haven't been
• 30:00 - 30:30 met. So, if I want to see that bullish order flow continue, I want to see this remain protected. So, using that logic again, this is our dealing range low and whatever high we're using is going to be our dealing range high. Okay? So, we retrace here, get another push up, and then still using this high to this low. Now, we're leaving behind clear engineered buyside here, short of lunch. Lunch high short of AM session high. Clear buy side targets. But we've had manipulation. That's the important thing. During the 3:15 p.m. macro, we go
• 30:30 - 31:00 below macro opening price. So, we're seeing macro power three running sellside liquidity here. We have a cibby overlapping with a bissy balance price range. Close above. Come down into it. Boom. FC. Okay. So again, this can seem if you're you're newer in your trading journey overwhelming, right? And it's supposed to feel that way if you're newer in your trading journey.
• 31:00 - 31:30 Okay? You'll start to see over time how these concepts blend together, time and price, our understanding and utilization of macro windows and the macro power of three highly precise model. But our first priority before patterns on whatever model it is, but even with macro power of three, our first priority is to understand the higher time frame narrative to build the directional bias. So we can clearly say, okay, it's clear
• 31:30 - 32:00 that I should be a seller or it's clear that I should be a buyer. And once I've established that clear directional bias, I need to see clear manipulation, then entry confirmation. That's it. So, when we have that higher time frame narrative and then we see a clear A+ macro power of three setup, really good things start to happen. And I always harp on it, but it's just about being patient during the
• 32:00 - 32:30 in between because an A+ setup is right around the corner. A handful of A+ setups are right around the corner. Okay? You just have to wait and implement that patience. That's the that's the holy grail as I've said the patience, the self-management, the discipline. That is the final piece of the puzzle, right? So through experience, you start to get a better understanding of what the higher time frame charts are telling us and by
• 32:30 - 33:00 extension, how we can utilize those signatures in higher time frame order flow, what we see to build our directional bias all the way down to a one minute trade execution. Okay, so again to reiterate, we're not introducing a bunch of new concepts. These are the same tools. Time and price, key inefficiencies, session liquidity, SMTs, dealing ranges, everything that we
• 33:00 - 33:30 utilize. Now, our job again is just to figure out what the higher time frame is telling us, our directional bias. Okay, so I hope you guys enjoyed this video and I will talk with everybody soon.