If I Had To Restart As A Trader, At 20 Years Old?

Summary

In this engaging video, The Inner Circle Trader delves into the mindset and strategies he would adopt if he were to restart his trading journey at 20. He emphasizes the importance of focus, patience, and understanding market dynamics over chasing quick profits or mimicking others. The video is a treasure of wisdom for both new and experienced traders, offering insights into the seasonal tendencies of markets, the pitfalls of popular trading myths, and the value of back-testing and focused learning.

Highlights

• Starting over, the trader emphasizes foundational strategies over quick riches. 💼
• Avoid distractions and focusing on one market or two is key to mastery. 🕵️‍♂️
• Importance of understanding market offers rather than just buying pressure. 📈
• Emphasis on learning why traders fail to build resilience and strategy. 🛠
• Traders are urged to study seasonal tendencies for pattern recognition. 📊
• The long-term value of patience and persistence in trading success is highlighted. 🚀

Key Takeaways

• Focus on building a strong foundation rather than trying to master everything at once. 🎯
• Understand the importance of time and patience in achieving trading success. ⏳
• Ignore Instagram hype; real success isn't instantly glamorous. 🕶
• Buy fewer courses and truly understand one effective strategy. 📚
• Learn from failures, both yours and others', to forge resilience. 💪

Overview

Imagine being 20 years old with the opportunity to restart your trading career. The Inner Circle Trader, a seasoned market expert, discusses how he would approach this hypothetical scenario. Instead of rushing to riches, he emphasizes building a solid foundation, focusing on a few key markets, and resisting the allure of glamorous trading setups or social media indicators. It's about patience, dedication, and understanding market fundamentals.

One of the core lessons is understanding that trading is less about buying pressures and more about where prices are being offered. The trader dives into why studying the reasons behind traders' failures is essential, as this builds resilience and helps one steer clear of common pitfalls. This wisdom is invaluable for new traders seeking to avoid the traps set by the seemingly straightforward advice prevalent online.

The video also deepens into the world of seasonal tendencies, illustrating how understanding these patterns can guide traders to better predict market movements and avoid unnecessary risks. With over 29 years of experience, his insights transform complex concepts into accessible strategies, reminding traders that success is a journey of learning and perseverance, not overnight success.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:00: Introduction to the Series The first chapter introduces the series and its overarching themes. It provides a foundational understanding of the key characters and the initial setting that will be explored throughout the narrative. Additionally, the chapter sets the tone for the series, hinting at both major conflicts and the intricate relationships between characters. Through an engaging prose, readers are invited to immerse themselves into a world that is both new and intriguing, as they begin their journey through the series. Key questions and themes are posed, creating anticipation for what is to come.
• 01:00 - 03:00: Reflection and Premise of the Series The chapter introduces a multi-part series that the speaker is embarking on, although the exact number of installments is yet to be determined - it will be at least three, but potentially more. The speaker commits to being concise but acknowledges this initial part might be the least favored among the audience. The chapter focuses on setting expectations and establishing the foundational tone for the series.
• 03:00 - 05:30: The Importance of Attention and Time The chapter titled 'The Importance of Attention and Time' explores the hypothetical scenario of the speaker going back in time to advise their 20-year-old self. Focusing on the premise of offering guidance to their younger self as a trader, the speaker aims to refine strategies and emphasize the crucial aspects of attention and time in this revised series.
• 05:30 - 10:00: Avoiding Multiple Sources of Information In this chapter titled 'Avoiding Multiple Sources of Information', the speaker reflects on the differences between two series of content: one focused on practical trading advice, and the other on mental and psychological persuasion. The speaker expresses a preference to limit the latter in the current series, acknowledging its necessity in the initial video but promising more practical value in subsequent ones. The speaker imagines being 20 years old again and highlights the importance of utilizing the information available on the YouTube channel to benefit potential young traders.
• 10:00 - 15:00: The Reality of Losing and Failure The chapter reflects on the journey of starting from scratch and learning from past experiences. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the marketplace as a novice and developing strategies based on shared knowledge and insights. Instead of repeating mistakes, the focus is on progressing methodically through acquired information, much like revisiting foundational lessons and implementing them progressively. The chapter conveys themes of resilience, learning from failure, and strategic growth.
• 15:00 - 20:00: The Mindset for Long-term Success The chapter emphasizes the mindset necessary for achieving long-term success, particularly in the context of trading and financial markets. It highlights a common mistake among newcomers: trying to achieve everything at once and seeking quick riches. Drawing a parallel with his younger self, the author notes how many young men and women entering the trading industry make similar errors, such as looking for rapid exits from traditional employment without considering the need for a sustainable, long-term approach.
• 20:00 - 31:00: The Importance of Back Testing The chapter titled 'The Importance of Back Testing' provides insights into the speaker's personal reflections on work and motivation. At the age of 20, the speaker was driven by a desire to avoid making others wealthy at the expense of their own time. They emphasize the importance of focusing on certain lessons learned from past experiences, particularly if given the chance to redo them.
• 31:00 - 39:00: Focusing on a Single Market or Strategy This chapter discusses the importance of focusing on a single market or strategy when trading. The speaker reflects on their initial approach, where they attempted to trade as many asset classes and setups as possible to avoid missing any market movements. However, they emphasize that trying to be involved in everything can lead to scattered attention and reduced effectiveness. Instead, they suggest concentrating on one strategy or market to enhance trading success.
• 39:00 - 60:00: The Benefit of Seasonal Tendencies The chapter discusses the importance of maintaining a limited perspective at the start of any venture to avoid wasting time. Specifically, in the context of social media in 2021, the chapter critiques the overwhelming influence of Instagram culture and discourages engagement with idolization or fan culture on the platform.

If I Had To Restart As A Trader, At 20 Years Old? Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30
• 00:30 - 01:00 all right folks welcome back it's going to be a multi-part series i don't exactly know how many videos it will be i know it'll at least be three but it could go on a little bit longer than that i promise not to be too long-winded but this is probably gonna be the one that isn't liked the most if we were going to be honest up front because i like to
• 01:00 - 01:30 lay down a foundation and the premise behind this series was that if i could go back and start all over again at 20 you've already seen my video series if not it's on this youtube channel uh what i would tell myself i'd go back and speak to my younger self as a trader things i would counsel myself to do and not to do this is a little bit more refined of a series on what it is i would be doing
• 01:30 - 02:00 trade wise whereas the other series was more along the lines of mental and psychological persuasion i just don't want that much of that in this series but there has to be a little bit of it in the first video obviously but i promise i'll give you something in this one that'll be useful 20 years old if i could go back knowing what i have available to me on this youtube channel say i was someone else not ict and i was 20
• 02:00 - 02:30 years old what would i be taking from this youtube channel and implementing it first okay and what direction would i go in if i were starting all the way back to square one knowing nothing about the marketplace how would i progress through everything i've put on this youtube channel and not trying to do
• 02:30 - 03:00 everything at one time obviously it's the mistake all of my students that come through this youtube channel try to make but 20 year old michael it was very similar to what you see today the young men and women that get involved in this industry trading not specifically just forex uh they want to get rich real quick and i was looking for an off ramp to nine to five i hated working i didn't
• 03:00 - 03:30 want to work and it's not because i'm lazy but i did not want to spend my life in my time making someone else rich and i didn't need books and self-help books and motivating speakers to tell me all this stuff to get me all hyped up i just hated it so at 20 years old the things that i would focus on primarily and some of these things i learned through pain but if i could go back in time this is what i would do i would take
• 03:30 - 04:00 control of my attention because when i first started i was trying to do everything i could possibly get my hands on in terms of a trading account a trading asset class to be traded i wanted to be in everything at all times i didn't want to miss any moves and i wanted to be able to trade every possible setup if there was a system that said it was a buy if it did this or if it was a cell if it did that i wanted to be able to do all those things so you have to ring in your attention
• 04:00 - 04:30 and you also have to keep your perspective limited in the beginning because you can waste a lot of time if you don't now obviously today 2021 the instagram phase is still hot and heavy i would not be doing any instagram or worshiping anyone on instagram or joining any of their fan clubs
• 04:30 - 05:00 i would do everything i could to accept the submission to time and i would try to do that as early as possible i had to learn that lesson hard and painfully in my early stages as a 20 year old i didn't have a lot of mentorship people okay around me to be able to tell me this is normal that's not normal this is what you should be doing this what you should not be doing so i would remind myself initially like i
• 05:00 - 05:30 did in the beginning that it's probably gonna take me a long time to get wealthy to get money to get a different lifestyle and i submitted to a 20-year plan now i know some of you are shaking your head saying ain't no way i'm going to submit to a 20-year plan but in this regard i was somewhat of a realist i didn't consider myself a mental giant i did not consider myself a lucky person but i knew if i put the work effort behind it and giving myself a time horizon that
• 05:30 - 06:00 was well beyond reasonable 20 years so i didn't want to work for someone else in my 40s and if i can get there sooner than obviously that's better but you have to accept the submission to time you don't know how long it's going to take for you to get consistently profitable or even to understand what it is that you're going to be doing as a trading model you don't know how long it's going to take you don't know what your personal psychological makeup is going to match up with for a specific style of trading
• 06:00 - 06:30 you don't know if you're going to be a day trader you don't know if you're going to be a swing trader you don't know if you're gonna be a short-term trader you don't even know if you're gonna be trading forex you may end up trading futures or crypto or stocks you don't know that right now and you have to be submissive to time to allow that to materialize in your development avoid multiple sources of information now what does that mean i would not be going into chat rooms
• 06:30 - 07:00 asking other people's advice i would not be trying to dabble into other systems trying to get a little bit of this and a little bit of that and come up with a frankenstein system i wasted money time and peace of mind doing all that stuff settle in on the study of price action that's all that matters you need to understand what price action moves generally repeat
• 07:00 - 07:30 which are very generic that happen consistently on a weekly basis on a daily basis a time and day sensitivity like what moves typically form in the london session what moves typically form in the new york session what ends the day this is all basically my ict kill zones and you can learn all that stuff on this channel avoid all indicator based theories i wasted a lot of time initially with that focusing just on price action alone
• 07:30 - 08:00 at 20 years old you want to feel like you're smarter than you really are and it looks technical with all these lines on your graphs and charts but they're distraction they're only measuring what's already happened there is no prognostication value associated to any of it it's just measuring the past it's all it is it's twisting and beating the math and data into submission and showing you a line or a graphic that has absolutely no bearing on what
• 08:00 - 08:30 price is going to do in the future i would study why traders fail not why they win you can get lucky and win and have really no real reason as to why that trade panned out for you now you can attribute all these factors to well you know the last time my elbow ached on a rainy day you know crypto went up something to that effect
• 08:30 - 09:00 and people will swear by that and i'm not interested in why a trader makes money i don't care about that because what they do to make money or find profitability doesn't necessarily mean that's going to be the thing that works for me that means every winning system out there is a religion it's an individual religion for that particular person and my alignment to those things that
• 09:00 - 09:30 that winning trader may subscribe to may not be something i'm comfortable with or willing to submit to it may be their belief in an indicator that got them to that winning trade or trades that would not jive with me because i don't believe in indicators not because they aren't cool looking on their charts because i had a lot of indicators on my charts when i was 20. but it doesn't mean that that's going to tell you what the price is going to do okay they're distraction i would be
• 09:30 - 10:00 focusing on why traders are losing now how do you get that information i liked the market wizards book volume one and two after that the rest of the series was in my opinion not worth opening up those two books the gems that were in them why they were losing the hardships they encountered and how they weathered that adversity that's what you're going to need you're going to need that type of
• 10:00 - 10:30 reassurance that when you go through these tail spins every time you make a single step forward in progress you end up going backwards 5 10 15 20 steps and it's really easy to talk yourself completely out of this industry before you give yourself a chance you want to be reminded and you never see this on instagram this is number one reason why i said you can control your attention and don't go to social media accounts because 99.99999999 of them are fake they don't make money trading they make money selling courses
• 10:30 - 11:00 how do i know they make money selling courses because i've made a lot of money selling courses i've made millions of dollars selling courses it's a good living if you want to keep doing it i'm retiring from it those individuals that are on social media they're never going to tell you how they fail because if they tell you how they fail you aren't going to subscribe to them you're not going to buy their courses and guess what it'll make you think wow they said they failed so why is it any different now
• 11:00 - 11:30 let them prove that they're now profitable they won't do that that litmus test goes unasked it doesn't get answered either by instagram traders it doesn't get answered by facebook traders you know youtube people they ignore it they hide from that so my whole image is in this channel framed on how i started as average joe i came from nothing and i developed all these things over the course of what
• 11:30 - 12:00 would be 29 years november 5th of 2021. so knowing why traders fail and what they did to get through that is important because those are the things that i took away from the market wizards books not because they said they made billions of dollars doing this and doing that that was of no interest to me because that number was so far out of my reach at the time as a 20 year old
• 12:00 - 12:30 i couldn't connect with that but what it did allow me to resonate with is they had hardships and if you buy a book or you buy a course most most of the time you're gonna never see any discussion of losing weathering a series of losing trades the psychology that is required to weather that type of thing because this is an individual sport and because it's an individual sport it's
• 12:30 - 13:00 very very painful and you can't just go on your spouse's shoulder you can't go to your friends unless they're a trader and they're not going to understand what you're feeling you feel like you're a failure if you have a series of losing trades five six seven trades in a row that you did not find profitable results in so it's going to feel like a need for you to go to join a team okay there is no team in trading it's you you're a one-person
• 13:00 - 13:30 army and you are against everyone else me included and i'm not in this game to give you my money neither is anyone else no one's gonna say well you know i feel sorry for robin today she's not been doing well she's had six losing trades in a row so let's you know let's all do a charitable act and let us take a losing trade for her that's not how this game works everybody wants everyone else's head on a block that's how we get paid that's what you
• 13:30 - 14:00 subscribe to i know it sounds graphic but that's what it is it's war you against me me against you all of you are against me and i'm against all of you in these videos i'm doing my best to try to help you but once i enter the market if you're the unfortunate person that's on the other side of my trade well you're just gonna have to deal with it and that's the mindset you have to go through knowing that you're going to lose and
• 14:00 - 14:30 how you get through that are you going to quit because you had adversity if you fail in the short term that's not retirement and you need to understand that this is going to be a lifelong thing i have losing trades i get it wrong i miss moves that is not entirely equivalent to failure it just means you have speed bumps you're getting in the right direction
• 14:30 - 15:00 but you're not getting there at the pace you probably would rather go to it expect it to be challenging but worth it just like working out it doesn't feel good you know to be sore the next day or two but you know that that's progress and continuously doing the same thing and being consistent with it over time remember that submission to time you will see results weight loss tone muscles more aesthetic
• 15:00 - 15:30 look healthy all those attributes will be a result later down the road it isn't instant gratification it isn't i'm going to open up an account with 500 bucks and then all of a sudden i'm quitting you know 60 90 days later it doesn't work that way folks okay as good as i am and as good as my concepts are you will be working your job if you just started 90 days from now you're probably gonna be working a year from now okay i'm i'm real okay i'm not gonna lie to
• 15:30 - 16:00 you i'm not gonna sugarcoat it okay but can you be entirely absolutely self-sufficient in under five years yes it's like anything else you go to college you go in there to learn a skill or a a profession like a lawyer or a doctor you have to submit to things you have to learn things and it doesn't come just because you enrolled in college doesn't mean you get
• 16:00 - 16:30 to go out and be a doctor okay it doesn't work that way and same as this just because you're watching my videos or anybody else's course it doesn't immediately give you the skill set to be able to do what you hope to do over time so expect it to be challenging like anything else anything worth learning or doing or having comes with a cost not necessarily financial cost but it's going to cost you in time energy effort and many times in the beginning
• 16:30 - 17:00 it's going to feel like you're doing everything backwards and going nowhere and that is normal that's normal no one told me that was normal in the beginning and i quit dozens of times which was really just me putting the books aside for a couple weeks and then coming back to it because i hated my job okay that is what this is gonna feel like for the first year or two it's gonna feel like you're wasting your time it's gonna feel like you're never gonna get it but expect
• 17:00 - 17:30 that and every time it happens you just talk to yourself and say i got into this for a career and a lifestyle and it doesn't come to me overnight and if everybody else that works these high-paying jobs and they have to go into school for multiple years four years six years to get that certification to be able to be equipped to get the jobs and careers that pay extremely well why should you think that this is going to be any
• 17:30 - 18:00 less difficult because you're competing with the hardest people to overcome the banks if they're not in the business to give away their money and they're not in the business to help you okay they didn't create these markets and say hey look you know michael's uh fresh out of school he's going through college and he's you know he's working on you know good career let's help him out and build up some of his nest egg and give him some winning trades yeah i
• 18:00 - 18:30 don't feel i don't feel good for him right no that didn't happen for me it's not going to happen for you so just expect it to be challenging but i promise you i promise you there is no words to describe the feeling once you have this skill set it's something that can't be articulated not by me not by any author because it's yours and no one can take it from you it's a skill set that you can walk into any asset class
• 18:30 - 19:00 and find income doesn't mean you're going to go through it 100 when no you're going to lose trades you're going to have losing trades but you're going to be able to find a niche in this so that way you can carve out a career or an income don't buy every course you see now that's the biggest thing going on right now and it's going to sound hypocritical because i sell or i sold rather i don't do it
• 19:00 - 19:30 anymore all my students that i have under my wing right now for mentorship that's all they'll ever be there is no future mentorship there is no 2022 no 2023 mentorship i'm coming back to this channel next march in 2022 to be a little bit more frequent with teaching and videos and such but until then my focus is on my mentorship group there is a lot of folks out there that are taking the things that i teach here and what they've learned from
• 19:30 - 20:00 mentorship and they're creating courses of their own these same people aren't equipped with experience they have no idea what i'm going to teach later on and many times they parrot other people out there that aren't even profitable traders either it just sounds good it they package it up they put themselves in front of cars they don't own they go on trips with money from subscribers and believe me if i were to spend just one quarter of what i make a week from
• 20:00 - 20:30 mentorship subscriptions i would put everybody else on instagram on welfare that's the contrast and you still don't see me doing those things because it doesn't do anything but build a false image don't buy every course you see because 90 of the time the people that are selling that course don't make money do not try to mimic someone else regardless of image now i get a lot of folks that come to me it's usually the young men they'll come
• 20:30 - 21:00 in and i'll watch my videos they'll hear how i talk and it feels cool to them okay and they want to talk like me they want to sound like me they want to pretend to be just like me and that is something that you should avoid doing you need to find your own character your own persona your own approach to this now obviously i have fingerprints of my own mentors as
• 21:00 - 21:30 i came up like larry williams there's a lot of things that he pressed upon me in 1995 when i was first introduced to his works and those things okay are going to find its way in this video because it's important for you to understand the main takeaway from this volume in this series and we'll get to that in a minute but the things that larry does as a trader i don't necessarily do
• 21:30 - 22:00 but i'm going to teach you one of the biggest lessons i learned from him in 1995 and it still holds true today i'm going to show you how to get a hold of the information i use to get this information and it's a resource that i think that every trader should have i don't care if you are a stock trader i don't care if you are a forex trader or a futures trader i don't care this concept is crucial in my opinion
• 22:00 - 22:30 to having consistency and longevity and where your analysis begins when you're first starting out and if i were starting all over again i would be focusing on why a market trades higher or lower what makes it trade higher and lower and it's not buying and selling pressure okay markets don't go up because buyers
• 22:30 - 23:00 are pushing it up before a buyer can pay for the asset class at a higher price it has to be offered at a higher price there's this disconnect between what people think the markets are doing and how they book in the reality buying pressure is not offering that higher price because if that's the case why is it
• 23:00 - 23:30 that there's markets that go from one price and i'll use a commodity as an example okay there's buying buying buying and moves going up and all of a sudden the market just opens up the next day limit up so what you're saying is is everybody bought at the same time and pushed price to that opening price that doesn't go anywhere this is that was the trigger for me to understand that it's not buying pressure it's not buyers
• 23:30 - 24:00 that make that price go up it's the sellers that are offering the commodity or price on that asset now if we're talking about forex who is the holder producer controller of the currency the central bank so prices go up because they're offered at a higher price and there's no limit to how high that price can be offered up it doesn't make a difference if there is a
• 24:00 - 24:30 lack of buying the market will still keep going up if they want to go up that's a hard thing for many traders to get it through their head but that's exactly what goes on it's not the buying that pushes it up there it's the offering always it's the offering and when the price goes down it's the same thing they keep offering it lower and lower and lower and lower it's not the sellers that drove it down there or a lack of buyers it's the offering of that price at that
• 24:30 - 25:00 price because they want that price the banks own it it's their commodity it's their product so it may be in their interest for a country to have its currency devalued to a certain degree it won't make a difference how many people come in and think it's cheap and buy it up if they want it to go lower it's going to go lower and it's not because a lack of buyers or more sellers than there was buyers it's
• 25:00 - 25:30 control they control their storehouse inside their storehouse their good or product is the currency price that's the way it is that's market making folks it's not the guy that sits at a desk and deals through that specific bank or brokerage that's a dealer that's not a market maker okay a market maker starts with the price they control the price they control that assets
• 25:30 - 26:00 cost and where it's gonna go just like if you owned a shoe store your product or commodity is the shoe who sets the price on that pair of shoes you you own the store if you want to keep the price higher and no one's buying it and you want to keep raising the price up what's what's preventing you nothing you can set the price to whatever you want it to be why is it so hard for people to understand this the central bank is in control period they don't care if you're buying
• 26:00 - 26:30 the currency and they don't care if you're selling short they're doing what they're going to do because it's their prerogative and how's that for logic but you have to understand what makes these markets go up and go down they're interest rate central and there are certain factors that push price from a monetary policy stance that is useful but not always a panacea it doesn't always equate just as simple as that it's not a
• 26:30 - 27:00 black and white type thing there has to be some logic and narrative understood so you have to go into that and i would be spending my time if i start all over again i'll be focusing primarily on what makes a market trade higher and lower and actually i'm gonna teach that in this video and you'll be studying where a market is likely to trade to it's not important for you to know where the beginning of a move is you just need to know that okay a move is underway
• 27:00 - 27:30 and where is it likely going because if you can figure that out you don't need to be in the beginning of every move you don't need to be in at the best entry on buys or the best entry on shorts you don't need that but every book every instagram guy every person on youtube and maybe even maybe my videos sometimes give that impression that you have to do that no if you are focusing on precision then it becomes an issue where you're pursuing that but you don't
• 27:30 - 28:00 necessarily need that i would be spending and you should be spending time in past price action most of the time in other words back testing seeing what patterns occur on specific days of the week how the weekly range expands up or down and how those individual days deliver price and work with an economic calendar to pair that idea with the underlying narrative
• 28:00 - 28:30 and what do i mean by that if you think that the market's primarily bullish and you go back through the last several weeks or a couple months and you study how price was going up on monday tuesday and wednesday okay what time of day on monday tuesday and wednesday was the best optimal trade entry forming and which day of that week on monday tuesday or wednesday was there a medium or high impact news event and you'll start seeing these patterns have very similar
• 28:30 - 29:00 recurring signatures that just keep recurring over and over and over again that is where i would be pouring myself into to get that experience even though i can't technically trade those moves in the past it gives me pseudo experience that helps me identify a pattern because of multiple times throughout my study time whether it be an hour each day or two hours a day in the evening time after you come home from work or after
• 29:00 - 29:30 school or whatever you pour through a chart and you really study it well now if you're doing back testing you can do as many markets as you want because you're just back testing but you want to pour yourself into that looking for reoccurring patterns and what it does is it change your brain to see these things as an example and over time how they look like one another but they're not exactly the same but they have very similar characteristics that is the beginning foundation to you being
• 29:30 - 30:00 able to see them form before they actually start moving in your favor on the hard right edge of every chart everybody wants to kind of cut that part out but back testing and studying hindsight is absolutely crucial nobody not one profitable trader that makes money or made wealth out of trading ever ever skipped this part it's always there that characteristic is synonymous with a successful consistently
• 30:00 - 30:30 profitable trader i would start a study journal which would be very easy because i've been journaling since i was a teenager so i would keep a study journal and record your observations and much like what i just said here in the number three bullet point was in past price action i would be recording examples of my observations and how often a specific phenomenon repeats
• 30:30 - 31:00 try to keep your study as simplified as possible try not to have too many moving parts now obviously if you come to my youtube channel it looks like i have a thousand different things and i have a myriad of different ways of going through and looking for this pattern and this approach and you don't need every one of the things that i teach you just need one of them and you want to try to keep it very simple learn when markets are likely to behave a certain way now what do i mean by that well there's a phenomenon called seasonal tendencies okay and i wasn't
• 31:00 - 31:30 aware of what that was until i got exposed to it through larry williams course it's on four vhs tapes and you've probably heard me talk about it many times if you're a constant reader or viewer of my youtube channel it's the future managers confidential trading course by larry williams and he introduced the idea of seasonal tendencies and he mentioned his long time friend jake bernstein and i
• 31:30 - 32:00 have purchased and used everything from jake bernstein and lost money every single time so that is not a guy you want to go to for seasonal tendencies no offense intended but just avoid that okay the gentleman that larry williams referenced in that course this was in year 1995 was steve moore and actually i'll show you a sample chart in this recording and show you what it
• 32:00 - 32:30 is a seasonal tendency is and what it's useful for and i'll show you how to get in touch with him so that way you can subscribe to his service i do not get anything for it so this is not a product placement i'm not getting money from anybody subscribing he doesn't even know who i am i've never made any reference to hey you know i'm gonna advertise your stuff he has no idea i'm even mentioning him in this video there is no affiliation none whatsoever okay i'm only telling you what i have faith in that has served me well
• 32:30 - 33:00 since 1995. these seasonal tendencies are highly highly influential in my decision-making and i think you'll see why as we go forward i would be and i suggest that you also to be a specialist a single market or two at most i was a 20 year old i was trading commodities and i wanted to be in every possible commodity there was and i
• 33:00 - 33:30 didn't have a big account but there was mid-am contracts which is like a mini of a full uh commodity account for instance if you were trading soybeans okay or corn or or wheat they traded in 5 000 bushel contracts and you can do mid-ams which were like a thousand bushels and it was one quarter of the margin that was required or they're real close to it and i was trying to be in every possible
• 33:30 - 34:00 move there was and my attention was so diluted by looking at multiple things i found that i ended up getting scared of being in the moves like i didn't want to be in the mood even if i was seeing the moves moving in my favor i just couldn't stand the pressure of being able to be babysitting all these moves so i learned through hardship to be a specialist i focused primarily on the s p and i focused on the bond market those two markets were my pets just like
• 34:00 - 34:30 today it is the british pound versus us dollar and euro usd those are my two primary markets i can find a move every single week in one or the other of that pair and that's all i'm concerned about i'm not trying to trade every single day even though i can trade every day i don't want to trade every day and i want to be a specialist that means i'm looking for a specific move within a framework on a particular day that there's likely a move going to happen because of volatility which would be
• 34:30 - 35:00 associated with the economic counter having a medium impact or a high impact news event that's central to that currency so if i know that there's going to be a medium impact or high impact news event on tuesday for euro or in germany then it's also during the new york session between say you know 8 30 more until 11 o'clock in the morning new york local time then i know that there is something that i want to be focusing my attention on and that's the only market i'm concerned
• 35:00 - 35:30 about i don't care what the s p's doing today i don't care what gold's doing i don't care what crypto's doing i'm focusing on that particular market i'm a specialist there's an opportunity making itself available and i want to be there present and not have my attention diluted because i'm doing other things in other markets i don't care about all those other things i want something that is as sure as i possibly can be is it likely to be high probability that's what i'm looking for and i want as many things in my favor
• 35:30 - 36:00 to do that and that's a specialist one market or two that's closely correlated and that way you are limiting your focus there you're controlling your attention remember the first thing i talked about in the beginning this video that is an important thing you're not being distracted with other things you don't care what everybody else is doing you're not even going to know what everybody else is doing because you're not on social media you're not in these chat rooms you're not in telegrams you're not in there you know holding your hands out hoping someone spoon feeds you something you're focusing on your task
• 36:00 - 36:30 your development because everyone else and me too i can't get you to that next level without you putting your focus and your effort in what it is you're trying to do and if you ask other people if you're spending time look at what everybody else is doing that's time that you should be taking and applying it to your back testing and your personal development you're cheating yourself you're stealing
• 36:30 - 37:00 from your future self every single time you give your attention or your time worship when someone else on instagram someone else on youtube even me you should budget your time i mean watch a video at most one or two a day or every other day and don't binge watch even though you might be fascinated as a young person i'm not necessarily an older person too i mean you can come here and fall into a real deep rabbit hole and go through all kinds of videos and learn a lot but not retain a lot so
• 37:00 - 37:30 you have to budget that but be a specialist go in pick a series in this youtube channel and go through it make a plan that okay this video series has eight videos or whatever i'm gonna do one every other day i'm gonna take notes and i'm gonna really think about what it is that i've learned and you're being a specialist you're focusing with a intended result in mind but you're not expecting it to come real quick you're not expecting it to be easy and you're not expecting it to entice you to go out there and trade
• 37:30 - 38:00 28 pairs in the forex market because you just watched the video centralize your efforts on a single model now what's a model uh trading plan or a script that you follow as a routine what's your process okay but in short what's your trading plan uh trading plan to me just sounds like [Music] it's too big you know everybody has a
• 38:00 - 38:30 trading plan until the market hour starts and they abandon it i have a model i have multiple trading models they are very specific they are very articulate they don't speak in vague terms it's very binary if this happens i'm looking to do this if this hasn't provided the information for that to be true then i wait or then i do this um is a very specific recipe okay that i follow which is an algorithm that algorithmic
• 38:30 - 39:00 theory helps me go in and make decisions and tells me when to wait for more information and not execute yet or now is the time to execute where does my stop go when do i move my stop when do i take partials that's your model okay but you should be centralizing all of your efforts initially with framing one simple single model one approach not an approach that catches every move
• 39:00 - 39:30 that doesn't exist i don't have one model that catches everything i have unique models for specific market conditions so while it's probably not beneficial for you to think that way but i want to make a distinction between having the expectation as a young person coming into this industry where you think well i'm going to have this fishing net approach where i'll just cast the net and i'll catch everything you know that's that's foolishness you can't do that okay and i'm not saying you can't do
• 39:30 - 40:00 that so you can feel challenged and i'm gonna prove ict wrong because that was the mindset i had when i was younger i was seeing my own failures trying to do that and i would tell myself well i was at work i mean i'm not going to fail this i'm going to do it and i'm going to do it even more and i waste the money wasted time and drill myself nuts centralize your efforts on doing one thing now what's the one thing what's the suggested single model the optimal trade entry that i teach you on this channel
• 40:00 - 40:30 it's a very simple pattern it repeats multiple times every single week in every single market it occurs there isn't a market out there that you cannot find this pattern for me at least one time each week when it's highly probable to form you can't ask for anything better than that it's simply one of the most easy approaches to trading there is develop a framework for a market based
• 40:30 - 41:00 on high time frame bias now what does that mean daily chart weekly chart something to that effect nothing less than a four hour okay and i'm not really trying to entice you to look below the daily chart but if you do nothing less than a four hours perspective so whatever you think the market's likely to do whether it be bullish or bearish on a four hour or daily preferably that is the framework you should be focusing on so all your trades should be formed on with that daily chart and if it needs to be referred to on the four-hour chart for further
• 41:00 - 41:30 refinement or maybe confirmation then so be it but we're not trying to frame a one minute bias we're not trying to find a five minute or an hourly chart bias we're trying to frame it on a higher time frame now why is that important because the thing i'm going to talk about in this video is central to a higher time frame bias in fact it's closer to a weekly chart
• 41:30 - 42:00 and finally find one setup determine an easy low effort target now what does that mean find a way that when you get into your pattern you know where you're getting out at and fall in love with that simplicity avoid trying to get the best r the highest r so that way you can go on social media and say yeah i had a 200 the one r that does not repeat over and over and over again the folks
• 42:00 - 42:30 that parrot that stuff and go out there and say they do it they would all be billionaires by now okay and they're still only repping an account with a couple thousand dollars so if they're getting these 200 350r trades all the time why is it their account only shows at best a couple thousand dollars think about it folks that's not the way this game's won it's consistently finding one repeating pattern knowing when to get in it where to put
• 42:30 - 43:00 your stop loss at and where you're taking your profits and getting to the sidelines so that way you can think clearly relax enjoy what you're doing and then wait for the next setup you're not going to turn every single trade into 30r and nobody even myself i have no way of knowing with any assurity that a trade is going to move 200 to 1. no one knows that but if you watch these instagramers use youtubers these discord rooms
• 43:00 - 43:30 telegram channels they're all going to tell you they're doing it and i've put real money on the line and i said listen if that's true and you're able to do it show that you made a hundred thousand dollars profitable they don't do it not even for a half a million dollars they couldn't do it for a million dollars and i offered it with real money and not one person on instagram stepped forward and took that up not one none of them okay i make lots of money
• 43:30 - 44:00 real money now i perform in front of you all as a demo baller for compliance reasons i have made literally millions of dollars of real currency and these folks know i have real hard currency and when i put it up there and said here should you make a hundred thousand dollars they can't do it but they're quick to show you their 100 000 cars that they're leasing showing you all the things they spend
• 44:00 - 44:30 money on with the currency that comes to them through their payments of their courses i'm not lying to you i make millions of dollars doing that but you don't see my stuff you see me trading but they're trying to do things that they cannot do with their delivery and their packaging in other words they're promising you something they can't themselves do i don't do that i've proven multiple
• 44:30 - 45:00 times over and over and over again that this stuff works and my challenge to you is for you to go through this content and see for yourself if it doesn't find consistency there's nothing close to this there's nothing out there except for people that rip it off and copy it but that's gonna happen when you have something that's hot and it's works and it's unrivaled everybody wants a piece of that train okay they want to get on it and they
• 45:00 - 45:30 want to ride it but none of these other folks out there can do what i can do and they have no idea the things i've held back still on these concepts they all talk the language but they are unable to do it you need to just do one simple thing determine a bias know when it's high probability to enter it how to frame it for risk where your stop loss is going to go and where you're going to get out at in the most
• 45:30 - 46:00 simplest approach is getting out at the top of the optimal trade entry when you're buying or the low of the optimal entry when you're selling short if you just did that consistently over and over and over again that's profitable you don't need high multiples of reward to risk to make money you don't need that and you don't need more than one to one to make money you can do one to one
• 46:00 - 46:30 over and over and over again if you have the signatures behind the trade you start with one to one don't listen to these yahoos out here saying yeah you have to have five to one three to one four to one twenty to one ten to one to survive no you don't no you don't you can go in there and put the same risk on that you have expected as a result for profitability and if you are framing the trades with
• 46:30 - 47:00 one of the signatures i'm going to show you here you have the odds stacked in your favor far more than if you didn't use this information i'm going to show you all right we finally got to it probably board the socks off of most of you all right so what we're looking at here this is a seasonal tendency okay this is a seasonal tendency of the
• 47:00 - 47:30 canadian dollar futures market now for some of you that are familiar with futures trading this might be very fascinating for you for everyone else that's getting involved with forex you're familiar with the dollar cad pair okay but this is actually showing you the seasonal tendency for the canadian dollar futures i want you to see this area right here between march and april okay notice this red line here the red line is the 15-year average of what the canadian dollar did
• 47:30 - 48:00 for the last 15 years or when this chart was actually created the blue line is a 40-year average of what the canadian futures market does as a whole now this is a product that is put out by steve moore and his website is down here in the lower left hand corner it's www.mrci.com so you're welcome to go there and
• 48:00 - 48:30 subscribe and get information you can't really find anywhere else it's he is in my opinion the absolute best when it comes to seasonal tendencies uh larry williams subscribed to him prior to 1995 and he swore that you know he felt confident that he had the best product for seasonal tendencies and i have monitored and kept up with steve moore's research since 1995 and here we are in 2021 and
• 48:30 - 49:00 it is so unbelievably consistent now how do you use it what i would go into the marketplace looking for these periods of the of the year and i would focus primarily on these times only and if it wasn't a time like this i would not be trading or worrying about that market any other time now what am i talking about notice between march and april that the
• 49:00 - 49:30 red line and the blue line these are not indicators folks all this is is number crunching real data and showing you the average over 15 years on the red line and 40 years so it's really giving you a clean approach to measuring the seasonal tendencies or the effects of seasonal over this particular currency so what what i'm saying to you isn't suggesting also is that at this time both the red and the
• 49:30 - 50:00 blue line starts going up in march so it goes up until around may okay and it may usually see something of a little bit of correction in both the 40-year blue line and in the red 15-year average so we have a real strong impulse or tendency to occur in march up to may so canadian dollar when these conditions are noticeable
• 50:00 - 50:30 okay in other words if the market is likely to go higher in other words it's been a bullish trend it's been going up maybe the dollar is about to go down or it's been going down the canadian dollar futures market is likely to go up from march into may that's a seasonal tendency how do you use this information well if we go to a chart this is the actual canadian futures you can see here march 2020 the market creates a run higher just
• 50:30 - 51:00 like the seasonal tenancy we can see here on march of 2021 same thing the market creates a low and starts trading higher too so the seasonal tenancy is in fact something that you can see visually does it mean that every single year canadian dollar futures is going to rally march to may no because if the market's bearish i don't expect this seasonal tendency to form now if we compare and contrast the
• 51:00 - 51:30 orange line here that is the dollar cad forex pair and i'm showing you the data from forex.com here's that canadian futures contract price and then as you would expect the dollar cad pair is a mirror image of that so we have the high trading down lower so everything we see canadian futures going up and the seasonal tenancy is measuring that particular market well but because the pair in this name
• 51:30 - 52:00 is dollar cad this is showing the relationship of the dollar versus the canadian dollar so dollar would be going down versus canadian dollar you can see the canadian futures price is going up the dollar is going to be moving opposite so since it's going lower the first currency in the paired dollar cad is the us dollar so that's why we're seeing this going lower so with that in mind let's go over to the actual chart of dollar cad and you can see the mirror image of that
• 52:00 - 52:30 and between march we create a high and it starts to go lower and again here march we create a high and starts to trade lower so you can see the effects of the seasonal tendency in the forex pair but it's linked directly to the futures contract of the canadian dollar now again back to the seasonal tenancy here we can see a strong bearish
• 52:30 - 53:00 seasonal tendency in the month of october going down into december so we'll do the same thing we just did we're going to pull out the canadian dollar futures and when it's bearish okay the seasonal tendency is for what october november look at the high between october and november forming what was the market prior to that high bearish so a strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go lower begins in october to november
• 53:00 - 53:30 and i'll be looking for shorts all the way into december now here's what i would suggest you do i want you to go through here and count how many times you see an optimal trade entry forming just on the daily chart see how many times they form now you probably don't know what an optimal trade entry is unless you've gone through the youtube videos here but there is a optimal trade entry primer video and then i do a pattern recognition series for optimal trade entry which is like 20 videos where it's just showing you every single day
• 53:30 - 54:00 an optimal trade entry forming well you can see a lot of that forming in here so what i'm showing you is that there is a way to see these seasonal tendencies as a road map okay if you buy a map you go to the truck stop or you go to a bookstore and you buy a map of your local area and you open up the map to your local area and you see where you are and where you want to go to a point of interest okay somewhere in your vicinity
• 54:00 - 54:30 if you go through the multiple ways of getting between where you are or home to that point of interest you have multiple choices to get there but once you figure out the shortest easiest route with no tolls is that route going to change the next time you open up the map no but you may encounter detours that you don't really see on the map once you get after you start driving that's what the seasonal tenancy is okay sometimes the market will change
• 54:30 - 55:00 gears and the seasonal tenancy that may shift from a bullish time period may actually develop into a bearish market and the seasonal tendency will evaporate that's the inherent risk to this but i want you to understand that these seasonal tendencies when you know what the higher time frame bias is if it's bullish or bearish they have a high probability of paying out which is the benefit of seeing that 15
• 55:00 - 55:30 year average and 40 years folks 40 years that's longer than i've been trading but if you can see these seasonal tendencies are in agreement with the 15-year average and a 40-year average you really have a way of showing and proving statistically that there is an edge to working on that side of the marketplace if you are in a bearish or bullish market so it allows you to go in with that mindset this is the number one reason why my trading when i
• 55:30 - 56:00 sit down and start doing these public displays of you know running up accounts and doing this and doing that i'm trading with these things in mind because i know there's a high degree of probability on my side in favor of what i'm trying to do because i'm looking for the best of the best of the best not just saying well let's see if the moving averages cross over well this looks like it's a demand zone or a supply zone i don't do that stuff folks i don't look at supply and demand
• 56:00 - 56:30 i don't look at elliott waves i don't look at anything harmonic i don't put trend lines on my chart and look for them to be parallel okay i don't look for channels i don't look for any of those types of things i look for order flow i look for liquidity and i look for this hallmark signature that i learned in 1995 from larry williams there's so much more to this obviously but i want you to understand that this is something that if you don't have it
• 56:30 - 57:00 in your trading you're really missing out because it gives you a road map of what's likely to occur why would you want to trade long in an instance like this where the market's already proven itself bearish and if you know there's a seasonal tendency between october november for it to start trading lower into the december why would you look at anything in here as a buy when everybody else in retail is going to see okay we we bounced here so next time it goes down here it's probably going to go up didn't respect
• 57:00 - 57:30 it okay it wasn't this low it's this low now so we'll draw a line out here if it goes down there it's going to go up and when someone buys it here and goes up here they feel smart and then the inevitable happens smash and goes through okay before it gets to this low here they'll start thinking well this is the real low this is the one that's really going to be the one to be a buyer at and then they'll draw it out in time and when the market gets down here and they try to buy it well there you go it's over it gets smashed again
• 57:30 - 58:00 whereas if you would look at the overall direction of the trend what's the order flow bearish what's the seasonal tendency between october and december on canadian dollar bearish okay now look at all the short-term lows as areas of resistance i'm just going to strip it down to simple retail logic i can take retail logic when it's used like this and it suddenly works
• 58:00 - 58:30 that's the part that all the retail traders and educators don't do they don't tell you when the times are ideal for you to use the swing lows as resistance so we have this low once it breaks through that you want to see that as resistance okay it trades through it and comes back up from this high to that low that's an optimal trade entry and it's lining up with that low notice i'm not demanding that it goes right to that low and stop because that's unreasonable
• 58:30 - 59:00 same thing with this low right here it trades through it now it comes right back up in it's coming back up into this low but i don't look at it support resistance as it has to go right to that low and stop i'm looking for it to trade back into this swing down which would be what optimal trade entry then it goes lower same thing with this low here there it trades through it once more then comes right back up for another optimal trade entry from this high through that low back up in
• 59:00 - 59:30 62 to 79 tracement level retracement that's optimal tradition it's very simple very very simple process this low here once it trades through it it does here trades down through it optimal trade entry sells off same here this low it trades through it okay find the the high it moved through it from this high down retraces back up optimal trade entry down into the december low how many trades is that
• 59:30 - 60:00 obviously i have the benefit of hindsight i'm not going to fancy dance around that okay but my students know that this is a seasonal tendency my students also know the logic and i shared that with you here there is so many other trades that are available inside this price swing i'm only teaching you optimal trade entry i'm not going to go in there and teach mentorship i'm not going to do that but i talked about seasonal tendencies on this youtube channel before i even started a
• 60:00 - 60:30 mentorship so i don't want anybody in my mentorship group getting hurt feelings or anything like that because i'm not going to go nowhere near the level that i'm doing in mentorship but this is something i believe that is useful information and i showed you where to get the information from yes you have to spend a little bit of money i don't get anything for it but i promise you it is well worth it it's a resource that steve moore's been doing for a long time it's very very consistent you will lose
• 60:30 - 61:00 money okay don't let me uh make it seem like this is the uh panacea to uh winning every single trade it's not a be all end all it's not a magic bullet it's just a way of framing out a logical expectation that has statistical information supporting it in hindsight through 40 years of data what he's done is taken 40 years of data and compiled it to show the average movement
• 61:00 - 61:30 over 40 years and he shows it to you also which i'm not showing you here because i'm not trying to put everything that he has out but this is certainly enough i think because if i would have saw this the first time like many of you probably are i would be subscribing to his stuff and you know being a client or a customer and being happy about it i put this seasonal tendency idea on the back burner when i first was introduced
• 61:30 - 62:00 to it by leah williams because it didn't make sense to me like it felt like you know well that was after it happened and i just don't know if it's going to happen again because i didn't understand what i was looking at i didn't understand how to read a market and i'm suggesting to you that you probably are going to be in that same position i can show you where it's good because i'm showing it to you in hindsight but my students have also seen me talk about seasonal tendencies and in fact i made it public knowledge on youtube in my community tab where i've literally called
• 62:00 - 62:30 the big grain market run that we've been seeing in soybeans corn and wheat and their moves that are fifteen thousand dollars per contract and higher and it's all based on this idea right here that nobody really is introduced to unless you've been a student of larry williams like i was in 1995 or you've been watching my stuff because larry larry williams doesn't get a lot of attention anymore
• 62:30 - 63:00 and steve moore doesn't get a lot of attention as a whole but he deserves it because he puts an amazing product out it's not expensive and for you to spend a little bit of money that you end up spending to be a customer of his to get this information to me it's a bargain it's my opinion it's worth way more than he sells it for but i got to give credit where it's due
• 63:00 - 63:30 this is one of the tools and who i got the information from so that way you know i'm not claiming authorship it's not mine i told you where i learned it from how i was introduced to it and who does it there are lots of seasonal tendency products out there and some of the most recent ones are just basically making very close similar lines to what steve moore has been putting out but nobody comes through like he does like he gives you supporting uh factors and
• 63:30 - 64:00 and information about these individual markets he does it for all the currencies as a futures market he does it as a commodity like if you're a trader for like coffee and gold and silver he has all those seasonal tendencies he's them all so to close this video and summarize basically what it is i've mentioned here if i was 20 years old all over again how would i go into the marketplace and how would i focus on learning developing and
• 64:00 - 64:30 developing a specific price action model that would know when i'm trading what market and how i would be trading it well this is it i would look for these types of moves when it's bearish and i would be a specialist between october and december on the canadian dollar i'd be looking to go short canadian dollar which would be going long dollar cad if we look at that relationship in comparison the orange line is the
• 64:30 - 65:00 dollar cad pair so here's the futures market for canadian dollars going lower right just like the seasonal tenancy says it should when it's bearish if it's a bullish canadian dollar would you expect this type of move no can it form yes but is it likely to probably not but the opposite is seen here in the orange line which is what the dollar cad so this is going up exactly the opposite of what you see here on the canadian futures and if you look at the dollar cad pair
• 65:00 - 65:30 october up into december boom there you go that price run in 2018 was a phenomenal price run and it's all linked to that seasonal tendency this simply means and what i'm showcasing here is that there are underlying seasonal tendencies that the banks usually follow and because these are currencies don't think for a moment that they don't have seasonal tendencies that are
• 65:30 - 66:00 just as strong as a grain market like corn and soybeans or even live cattle or lean hogs as a commodity these currencies have cyclical factors and you can ferret out that cyclical factor with seasonal tendency charts that are reliable and there is no one else in this industry in my opinion it has better data better product better statistical probabilities with seasonal tendencies than that of steve moore and the website i gave you earlier in
• 66:00 - 66:30 the video so hopefully you've got something out of this and hopefully you've been inspired to dig into it and if you're a 20 year old or a 50 year old or a 40 year old with a 20 year old heart you can go into the marketplace with a fresh perspective and a new outlook for finding these little treasure hunts because that's how i look at it i look at these market moves as treasure hunts and what do you have with the treasure hunt usually have a map right well seasonal tendencies are my treasure maps
• 66:30 - 67:00 so i'll talk to you next time wish you good luck and good trading