Insurgents in Syria advance towards Damascus | Power & Politics

Summary

Rebel forces in Syria are advancing rapidly towards Damascus, signaling a significant threat to the Assad regime. The swift movement follows the capture of Aleppo and close proximity to Homs, which is crucial due to its location on the main highway to the capital. The main rebel group, HTS, led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has Islamist roots but is attempting to portray a moderate front. The situation presents uncertainty as to whether the Syrian army, struggling with dysfunction and lacking Russian support due to its involvement in Ukraine, can hold its ground. The rebels' advances could prompt a change in international dynamics, with Turkey supporting them while the West remains cautious, particularly due to Assad's previous ties with Russia and Iran.

Highlights

• Rebels capture key cities and set sights on Damascus, rattling Assad's regime. 🏙️
• HTS, a group with a complex history, emerges as a potential game-changer in Syria. 🕊️
• Erdogan supports rebel advancement, reflecting shifting regional alliances. 🇹🇷
• Western skepticism looms large as Syria's fate hangs in the balance. 🌍
• Assad's military weakened, facing relentless pressure from Israel and economic constraints. 💥

Key Takeaways

• Rebels in Syria are closing in on Damascus, posing a major challenge to the Assad regime.
• The main rebel group, HTS, led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, claims to have shifted from jihadist roots to a nationalist stance.
• There's uncertainty about the rebels' intentions and how pluralist their future governance will be.
• Rebel victory could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics, especially with Turkish support for the opposition.
• Western nations remain wary due to Assad's past alliances with Russia and Iran, complicating potential support for the rebels.
• The ongoing conflict may continue to affect millions of displaced Syrians and could influence international refugee policies.

Overview

Rebel forces are making significant strides in Syria, marking a turning point in the country's long-standing conflict. After capturing strategic locations, they're now positioned near Homs, a pivotal city on the route to Damascus. This fast-paced movement highlights the fragile state of the Assad regime, particularly as it struggles to retain control amidst diminishing military strength and lack of external support from traditional allies like Russia, busy with its own conflicts.

Amidst this upheaval, HTS, the main rebel group, is making headlines not just for its military maneuvers but also its leader’s apparent transformation. Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, previously linked with jihadist networks, is now promoting a moderate, nationalist image. However, skepticism remains, with many questioning the sincerity of this rebrand, especially given the group’s complex past and controversial actions.

International dynamics are equally fluid, with Turkey openly backing the rebels while Western countries navigate the uncertainties of supporting a regime change that might not align with their long-term goals. Meanwhile, the Syrian population continues to endure hardship, with countless individuals displaced and yearning for stability as the international community watches closely, contemplating its next move in this evolving geopolitical puzzle.

Insurgents in Syria advance towards Damascus | Power & Politics Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 in the Middle East Rebel forces are now just outside of Syria's thirdd largest city the last government stronghold on the road to the capital Damascus Margaret Evans brings us up to date on the lightning offensive the legacy of Syria's alassad Dynasty being dragged through the streets of hamama the head all that's left of a statue of former president Haas alassad who son Bashar now faces A Renewed Insurgency spreading across the land
• 00:30 - 01:00 land from Hammer the rebel groups who last week captured Aleppo are on the March South towards homes the next city on the road to Damascus the Turkish president Reb tab erdogan has wished them well saying the Syrian president had rejected a conversation with him ID hmer I would say we hope for this advance to continue without any issues he said although he
• 01:00 - 01:30 cautioned against terrorist elements in their midst turkey is home to 4 million Syrian refugees displaced during the long Civil War and a stable Aleppo could allow many to return that's where the main Rebel leader has been making himself known Abu Muhammad Al jalani is an islamist with ties to al-Qaeda in the past trying to moderate His Image pledging to rebuild Syria
• 01:30 - 02:00 displaced individuals scattered across the world those drowning in the seas and those living in tents on the borders of other countries what kind of Victory are we talking about Russian war planes bombed a bridge between hamama and Holmes in support of Damascus but many analysts are still waiting to see what kind of fightback the Syrian regime might be capable of bringing the level of dysfunction in the
• 02:00 - 02:30 Syrian regime forces is astounding hio vien is with the international crisis group in neighboring Lebanon if they manage to take hums then I think uh it's then think many things that nobody thought possible could become possible that would cut Damascus off from the Syrian Coastline Al Assad's alawite minority stronghold and there are other key developments Syrian Birds taking control
• 02:30 - 03:00 of a government City in the Eastern desert and in the South Rebels claiming to control one of the border crossings with Jordan that Frontier reportedly now closed Margaret Evans CBC News Beirut for more on the situation in Syria we've reached Joshua Landis the director for the center for Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma Joshua Landis is good to see you thanks for being here today pleasure uh the rebels are moving fast there's a report from Reuters that Rebels have taken the
• 03:00 - 03:30 southern city of Dara under a deal with the Army to secure the Army's orderly withdrawal what does it say about Bashar al-assad's ability to hold on if his army is negotiating the Handover of towns to Rebels uh well it looks really bad the the Syrian Army doesn't have much fight left in it and it has been melting away in front of these cities Aleppo Hama humps now is um the big Battlefront and that is the key city as your journalist
• 03:30 - 04:00 said uh the main highway from Damascus to Tartus the coastal cities which is the stronghold of the alawites runs right south of of humps whoever owns humps is going to be able to cut that off and if the rebels take humps they'll cut Damascus off and Damascus is an overwhelmingly Sunni city as as are the various Villages around it and uh that it won't be long before that would fall
• 04:00 - 04:30 if humps is taken we have to see if there's any fight left in the Syrian Army and that the Battle of humps will show that you know these Rebel forces they've moved at lightning Pace like this is the the territory they've taken the areas they've taken but you have this islamist Rebel group with ties to Al-Qaeda trying to take out a dictator with ties to Russia and other Bad actors I I mean who are these Rebels that that are un potentially forcing out the Syrian dictator well it's many militias but the
• 04:30 - 05:00 major militia Isam HTS which is led by Abu Muhammad jolani and as your commentator said jolani worked for both Isis and Al-Qaeda was sent by kaleth bagdadi to open a chapter of al-Qaeda in Syria and uh he did that with extraordinary success he has remade himself in the last um number of years into a non- Jihadi uh claiming to be a nationalist now he's given up and
• 05:00 - 05:30 suppressed those elements within uh elra he who who were hoping to fight Europeans and Americans and be an internationalist and so he's he's really remade himself and has set up a really professional not only professional military but a professional media outfit that has reassured Christians that they are not going to chop heads or take it or attack them and has been reaching out
• 05:30 - 06:00 to all sorts of syrians saying we're going to take over the country don't fight us we will treat you well the big question mark is how he will treat the alawites and they have been fleeing in front of his forces uh to the Coastland and that that will be the big battle is taking the coastal areas where most of the alawites live and they're 12% of the Syrian population is this conversion from Isis and Al-Qaeda to a Syrian
• 06:00 - 06:30 nationalist is there evidence that that is sincere and real you know because you looking at it from a western point of view when you see Isis and al-Qaeda in the history you get anxious how how should we view this well there are many syrians who are anxious as well and and we just don't know you know the Taliban when they retook the capital carala I mean the capital of Afghanistan they they promised that they would not they would treat women well that they had learned a
• 06:30 - 07:00 lot and changed uh and of course they forbid women after sixth grade from going to school so we don't and this group haam looks at the Taliban as a uh as a model in many ways so it it's unclear how much their spots have changed but they are in a big Coalition of other syrians and as they conquer these major cities there are a lot of secular syrians there are a lot of Christians there's a lot of aloes
• 07:00 - 07:30 ismaelis other minorities and they're you know Syria is 10% Kurdish as well so they're not going to want to be led by a Taliban light or uh heavily islamist governments but we've seen video that not controlled by the government or by the the new Rebels come out of them toping Christmas trees smashing up liquor stores and doing other things that islamists do so the the
• 07:30 - 08:00 it's unclear what the long-term effects of this will be on the Syrian people so it's a massive Coalition of different militias coming together with a common goal of taking out the al-assad regime he has been an ally of Vladimir Putin and relied on Russia in the past Russia's military assets are very heavily occupied right now in Ukraine so I if Russia can't come to his Aid I mean what do we know about the Assad regime's ability to hold on to defend itself here
• 08:00 - 08:30 well you're absolutely right and Israel has just destroyed heah largely and as well as attacked Iran and it's been pounding the Syrian Army for a year at least three times a week it's been bombing military manufacturing sites uh important parts of the military it's killed most of the top Iranians in Syria in a number of operations so it has really weakened the Syrian Army and there isn't a lot of fight left in it uh
• 08:30 - 09:00 the Syrian people are fed up with this regime by and large and many were hoping for a peace dividend When The War sort of petered out in 2000 it never came there heavy American sanctions on this America owns all the oil and gas so that's not coming to the to the um to the Syrian government and so Assad has not been able to rebuild he hasn't been been able to bring back electricity many of the schools repair so it's a bleak future with Assad and people don't want
• 09:00 - 09:30 to fight and die for this government we'll have to see what the new one brings and whether America will lift those sanctions return oil and gas to the Damascus or keep it for the Kurds uh these are going to be big questions and the government if the Rebels win they're going to look to the International Community to lift those sanctions and to renew relations and help Syria rebuild okay I I literally have 60 seconds left so maybe it's unfair for me to ask you this question but we see President ERD a NATO Ally in Turkey cheering on the
• 09:30 - 10:00 rebels how do you expect the West to respond to this because there is a lot of uncertainty and difficulty on either side of it well I think they'll give him some grace period but uh it'll be there'll be tremendous pressure to lift the sanctions and to let them rebuild and to lift this terrorist designation and jolani has just jettison today he has changed his name back to his childhood name he's given up this n dear jolani because
• 10:00 - 10:30 it sounds El it sounds shih yes so he's changing his name he's doing everything he can and there going to be a lot of countries that are going to try to help him get back in the good graces of the West uh fascinating stuff on on a fast moving story Joshua Landis the director for the C Center for Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma it's good to meet you sir thank you for being here today pleasure being with you David