JOHN FENECK | The Sell-Off Will Feel Way WORSE!

Summary

In this insightful interview with John Feneck, the discussion delves into the anticipated sell-off in 2025 or 2026, which is expected to be more severe due to increased market speculation. John Feneck, an experienced consultant in the metals and mining sector, shares his views on the current market conditions, predicting volatility and uncertainty, particularly with key elements like gold, silver, and other critical minerals. The conversation also covers the influence of geopolitical factors on commodities and offers strategic advice for navigating these turbulent economic times.

Highlights

• John Feneck highlights a potential major market sell-off predicted to occur in 2025 or 2026, accentuated by heightened market speculation. 📉
• The metals and mining sectors are expected to benefit from market uncertainties, making gold and silver attractive investments. ⛏️
• John does not anticipate a significant decline in the Dollar, which may parallel the performance of gold in upcoming years. 💵
• The video suggests a strategic pivot towards more secure investment opportunities amidst impending market volatilities. 📈
• Geopolitical factors, especially the dynamics between the US and China, are poised to influence commodity markets substantially. 🌍

Key Takeaways

• Prepare for a significant market sell-off in the upcoming years due to speculative investing turning markets into casino-like environments. 🎲
• Gold and silver are positioned for potential positive movements amid economic uncertainty, making them reliable safe havens. 🛡️
• The uranium sector may face a challenging period but holds long-term potential, particularly with geopolitical instabilities. ☢️
• Diversification in commodities including critical minerals is crucial for investors seeking to capitalize on market volatilities. 🌐
• Expect market volatility with potential political impacts on fiscal policies, notably with a Trump administration's influence. 🏛️

Overview

In this engaging interview hosted by Gary from Metals and Miners, John Feneck delves into the future economic landscape, predicting a severe sell-off in 2025 or 2026. With a focus on speculative behaviors turning the stock market into a casino-like domain, he anticipates intensified market volatility, urging listeners to stay prepared.

Highlighting the resilience of gold and silver, Feneck explains their expected growth backed by geopolitical tensions and market instability. As inflationary fears loom with potential policy shifts in a Trump administration, precious metals are likely to remain investor favorites.

John Feneck also sheds light on critical minerals and uranium, advocating for diversity in commodity investments. Discussing geopolitical developments, he warns investors about the impending uncertainties and advises them to position themselves strategically across various market sectors.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:30: Introduction The introduction hints at a future financial downturn, predicted to feel worse in 2025 or 2026 compared to the selloff in 2008-2009. This is attributed to the current trend of more people treating the stock market like a casino rather than a traditional investment avenue. The chapter also introduces the host, Gary Bom, of 'Medals and Miners'.
• 01:30 - 02:30: Guest Introduction In this chapter, the speaker introduces John Fenick as a guest. John has an extensive career starting as an equity analyst for Merrill Lynch in 1992. From 1993 to 2019, he served as a senior executive at both Merrill Lynch Funds and Morgan Chase Funds. John is recognized for sharing his insights and expertise through well-known industry platforms like Sprat Kito. In September 2019, he founded Fen. This sets the stage for a promising discussion with him in this session.
• 02:30 - 05:30: Economic and Market Perspective of 2024 The chapter begins with a welcome note to John, a representative from a consulting group focused on the demand from commodity companies, especially in the metals and mining sector.
• 05:30 - 09:00: Gold and Copper Analysis The speaker discusses the unexpected performance of copper in the market, highlighting that despite widespread positive predictions from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, copper hasn't yielded the expected returns. The commodity remains popular and tradable, with an implication that there could be trading strategies worth discussing either in the current conversation or in a future discussion. The dialogue suggests a focus on the year 2024 concerning copper investments.
• 09:00 - 13:30: Dollar and Stock Market Discussion The chapter discusses the performance of investments over a year, specifically in the context of trading equities and metals. It highlights that no significant profit was made within the year, and previously, there was a financial loss. The chapter suggests that trading these investments frequently, instead of a buy-and-hold strategy, could have been more profitable given the price fluctuations from five to four dollars. It emphasizes the importance of regularly evaluating the investments rather than holding them long-term without active management.
• 13:30 - 18:00: Impact of the US Treasury and Federal Decisions The chapter discusses the impact of US Treasury and Federal decisions on investments, emphasizing the necessity for active participation in the sector. It highlights gold’s breakout year attributed to technical resistance levels being surpassed, such as breaking above 1575 and maintaining a strong position around 1900, which was a key indicator of its significant performance.
• 18:00 - 23:00: Stock Market Valuation and Possible Corrections The chapter discusses the resilience of the stock market, particularly noting a consistent performance over five months. It emphasizes the significance of breaking above the 2000 mark and now sees 2,300 as a support level. The chapter also comments on the market's performance post-election on November 5th, noting an even higher touch point of 2500. A surprising point raised is the underperformance of gold equities, with only a few like Alamos and AGI performing well.
• 23:00 - 27:00: Nvidia's Influence and Market Dynamics The chapter discusses the surprising market behavior and influence of major companies, specifically highlighting Newmont Corp, often abbreviated as 'Newan.' Newmont is identified as the largest holding within the GDX, a prominent exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the mining sector. This ETF represents over $15 billion in assets. The chapter then examines the impact of Newmont's performance on the sector, noting that being the biggest holding in the largest mining sector ETF means its underperformance can significantly affect the market. Additionally, the chapter touches on the strength of the US dollar, noting that the Dollar Index recently surpassed 109, which is a significant marker, although the current value wasn't specified in the excerpt. The discussion implies a correlation between strong dollar performance and market dynamics in sectors like mining that can be impacted by currency fluctuations.
• 27:00 - 31:00: Federal Reserve's Potential Actions The chapter discusses the potential global impact of a stronger US dollar, particularly on Mexico and Japan, and explores expectations and possible reasons for a weaker dollar by 2025.
• 31:00 - 38:00: Gold and Silver Market Predictions The chapter explores the relationship between the gold market and the strength of the US dollar. It discusses the historical patterns observed since the 1970s, where both the dollar and gold can simultaneously rise. Unlike some predictions that the dollar will devalue significantly, this view is not supported by current facts. The emphasis is on dealing with realities rather than speculative predictions.
• 38:00 - 46:00: Uranium and Critical Minerals Investment The chapter discusses strategies for making money in the uranium and critical minerals sector. The speaker emphasizes the importance of dealing in facts rather than hypothetical scenarios like catastrophic global events. Decisions should be based on actual market actions rather than predictions about the dollar's future value. The speaker believes that gold and silver can perform well without a collapse in the dollar, as market trends are indicative of potential growth in these commodities.
• 46:00 - 55:00: Conclusion and Investment Philosophy The chapter discusses the contrasting investment philosophies of safety versus high-risk investments. One side advocates for the inclusion of stable assets such as the dollar and precious metals like gold and silver as safe holdings in a portfolio. The other side tends to treat market investments with a high-risk, high-reward approach, akin to gambling, which the speaker does not subscribe to. The speaker distances themselves from investing in technology stocks or sectors at their peak market value, specifically indicating their avoidance of buying Nvidia at its highest price. The speaker expresses a concern that much of the aggressive investment behavior is still prevalent in that tech sector.

JOHN FENECK | The Sell-Off Will Feel Way WORSE! Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 and so the selloff will feel way worse I think in 2025 or 2026 than it did in 089 because you've got a lot more people you know gambling in the stock market now right this is more like a casino like environment than an investing environment to [Music] me welcome back to medals and miners I'm its founder and its host Gary bom today
• 00:30 - 01:00 we have a fantastic discussion lined up and we're fortunate to have with us John fenick John began his career in 1992 as an equity analyst for meil Lynch from 93 to 2019 he was a senior executive for both meril Lynch funds and Morgan Chase funds John shares his expertise regularly through featured articles and interviews with well-known industry resources such as Sprat Kito and others and September of 2019 John started Fen
• 01:00 - 01:30 Consulting Group based on demand from commodity companies especially those in the metals and Mining sector John thank you so much for joining us today my pleasure Gary nice to be here for the first time well let's begin with a look back on 2024 from an economic and market perspective what surprised and shocked you what fell right in line with expectations and what are you expecting moving into 2025 in no particular order
• 01:30 - 02:00 um copper surprised me again in that it could not produce return yet everyone and their mother loves copper right uh all the big Banks Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley have all been talking about higher copper prices now for two years yet we haven't seen anything uh now it's been very tradable right which is something that we can talk about either today or on another podcast but we will trade right we you know if you look at Copper in 2024 and you bought an held
• 02:00 - 02:30 for one year meaning Jan 1 to December 31 you made hardly any money um the previous year you actually lost money so so if you traded it you would have made a lot of money right because it went from five bucks down to four bucks and uh there was a lot of tradeable opportunities in there both for the equities and for the metal but we are not of the mindset that metals and Mining is is a Buy and Hold and cross your fingers and put it away for five years you have to be looking at this stuff on at least a monthly basis
• 02:30 - 03:00 because things change and you have to be an active person or else the sector is probably not for you as an investor um what what did not surprise me is gold you know gold uh had a breakout year that was due because we saw technically last year at holding certain levels right we saw it break up of 1575 a couple of years ago which was former resistance we then saw 1900 hold last year for months and months like never closed above 1900 and ounce ever for
• 03:00 - 03:30 like five months plus in a row um that's very good technically and then it broke above that big round number 2000 and now we see 2,300 as support really I mean it it you know it touched around 2500 after the election November 5th but it's been extremely resilient as I'm sure you can agree and you know what's really interest what really surprised me uh from last year is that gold equities have done virtually nothing I mean you have to really look for winners ago was a win winner a Alamos was a winner AGI
• 03:30 - 04:00 but you know there's there's many many stories that surprised people like newon NM Newan is the largest holding in GDX which is the largest product in the mining space with over 15 billion dollars in it right so when you're the biggest holding and the biggest ETF and you're underperforming it's a problem for the sector in general major yes so John the dollar Index it's been super strong and yesterday crossed over 109 I didn't see what it was today
• 04:00 - 04:30 if the Dixie gets much stronger things could start you know as they say blowing up around the world um I did hear uh that the magic numers around 111 for Mexico 112 for uh another country 113 for Japan Etc that said if if you had to make the case for it why must the dollar weaken and is that what you expect to happen in 20125 so we uh are independent thinkers at F A Consulting we haven't been
• 04:30 - 05:00 falling The Herd on the dollar you know getting blown up like so many of my peers have said for the last one two three four five years you name it like we've just said look there's periods of time since the 1970s if you go back and look at history where the dollar can run alongside gold that's what's happening and so I'm not one of these that you know people that are going to tell you or your listeners hey the Dollar's going down Dollar's going down 30% here's why it's just it's just not happened yet we we deal in facts you know that's how you
• 05:00 - 05:30 make money in the any sector I think you deal in facts you don't deal in wh ifs I mean yes there's an element to to Black Swan events and you know World War III and the different things that are on the table right now but but I don't wake up every morning investing like the dollar is going to go to X price right like I look at the action the tape so to speak and I make decisions based on what the Market's telling me um so I I'm not in the camp that the dollar has to Crater for gold and silver to do weal the market is telling you that there's two
• 05:30 - 06:00 camps Gary there's a person like myself that believes that safety has a place in a portfolio that would be the dollar that would be gold right silver um then there's the other contingent that is like hey I'm going to put my money into the market like it's a casino and that's not me right like I'm not buying Nvidia at all-time highs I'm not buying Tech as a sector in general I I think the most of the the the hot money is still in that sector and I think a lot of of The
• 06:00 - 06:30 Upside gains um have been made and in 2025 we're going to see more volatility I do have some questions on the market there in general and Nidia but I'll get to that in a moment uh recently outgoing US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen she said that on January 14th the treasury is going to run out of money and according to her comments last week Extraordinary Measures will be necessary what kind of measures would you expect to see taken and what type of impacts will these Extraordinary Measures have
• 06:30 - 07:00 um so just historically every time we hear about these measures having to be taken place if you look at recent history one three five years something always happens where someone steps in and fixes it right like this is this is the truth again we're dealing in facts um and and it's a good question however I don't think anyone knows what's happening after January 20th right now I mean there is a lot on the table with Trump coming into office and I think he's going to surprise people that's why
• 07:00 - 07:30 we were cashing up in September October pre-election to make sure that we didn't get surprised and we did get a surprise in the mining sector November 5th to December 31st it was pretty brutal price action I mean even producers that our larger cap were down 30 to 40% in less than two months right that's brutal so you have to know when to step aside in markets right now um if you're a money manager out there uh if you got you know them behind closed doors I bet a lot of
• 07:30 - 08:00 big money managers tell you they're really nervous going into January 20th and into 2025 in general because they just don't know what to expect and markets don't like uncertainty so uncertainty is what you're calling for and volatility in 2025 versus like the same levels that we've seen in years like 23 and 24 where it was just basically a party right I mean yeah no one can disagree that the NASDAQ the the S&P enjoyed amazing years right good for good for you if you've
• 08:00 - 08:30 participated in that but I think it's prudent to look at your 401k from March of 09 to now and realize that you're not the best investor you got lucky part of the time and you have to be able to take some of that money off the table right now and rotate it into things like Newmont that are going to produce tremendous free cash flow as one of the largest you know gold stocks out there that are shedding assets that are cleaning up the balance sheet that are trading at under a 30 RSI a relative strength index it's like crazy uh you know and and so I don't think we're
• 08:30 - 09:00 there yet I think we're we're still in this kind of party mode but I'm just saying that you need to be cognizant as an investor that January 20th and Beyond is going to be different than what we saw over the last number of years yeah and I think it's challenging because people have been so disappointed you know they were expecting with the uh major cash flow that numont was earning that they the stock was going to pop and then it didn't and uh so you I think they're going to have to get over that as well uh John interest payments on the
• 09:00 - 09:30 federal debt pile has jumped from 225 billion in 2020 to 1 trillion in 2024 and based on the current debt path the interest rates and the deficit run rate it's projected to jump to 1.5 trillion this year in 2025 and then 2.1 trillion in 2026 how sustainable is this do you think it's more likely that the FED will take some pressure off of the
• 09:30 - 10:00 by lowering rates much deeper uh you know than they've been saying they would despite the rhetoric that they definitely wouldn't do that yeah so that's a great question I don't know the answer um I'm never going to tell you and your listeners something that I you know if I don't know the answer I just don't know the answer I don't think many people really know the answer there I I know that the the pattern is is headed up of course in terms of you know clipping higher amounts of debt that's going to be
• 10:00 - 10:30 problematic for our economy however like I look at the fed and I look at what the FED is saying and what the FED said PRI and what and and and try to like most people read the tea leaves to understand where things are headed I think the FED is in a corner they've been saying you know four Cuts four Cuts all fall and now in December 18th they say you know sorry just kidding two cuts um I don't believe that for a minute I think that Trump will come in and force situations that people can't for see happening
• 10:30 - 11:00 right now with the FED just as he did with the Supreme Court no one thought that that would you know end up the way it did under his direction did and so I think the FED is going to have more members that are Trump like thinking in terms of you know lower rates for this year because look Trump has an agenda Trump is a real estate mobile he needs lower rates and I think that that's you know despite what pal has said vehemently uh in November and December that there's absolutely no way Trump can get involved I disagree you know and I think that uh
• 11:00 - 11:30 the FED is going to play ball and I don't know what that looks like I just know that we're going to have to have some type of comeuppance in 2025 and that will be positive for gold and silver in general because it's precious metals again the metals love uncertainty and volatility and I think we're just going to see more of that in general I I appreciate that take I I if you look at the five most famous stock market crashes the wall Street crash of 1929
• 11:30 - 12:00 the 1987 Black Monday the 2000.com bubble burst the 20089 global financial crisis and the pandemic crash of 2020 every single one occurred when the stock market was at or near its all-time high the S&P 500 recently crossed 6,000 the highest it's ever been in stock market history how overvalued are stocks right now or are they not and what is your analysis pointing to for the market mve moving forward this
• 12:00 - 12:30 year we are uh very overvalued as a broad Market um I will caution people that want to get short that markets tend to head higher than you think and run longer than you think and they also stay down long or or or drop more sharply than you think right I wouldn't say they stay down longer than you think now because when you look at those five instances that you just highlighted Gary let's look at the last three so 2000 to 2003 that was a brutal
• 12:30 - 13:00 painful long selloff that took years not months right but then in0 yeah 0809 took nine months so much more compressed time period 2020 in the pandemic it was less than two months things are happening much more quickly because you you have algorithmic buying and selling in 2020 that didn't exist in 2000 right like you're you're going to see things drop faster than you expect
• 13:00 - 13:30 and I think one of the biggest problems that that has been talked about on many shows like yours is the mag 7 is driving performance within the S&P 500 so when you look at your S&P 500 return on your 401k statement you're very excited about what happened in 2024 but then you take a deeper look and you realize that seven of those 500 stocks added most of the alpha to that return and you have to be wondering what happens in a selloff if every mutual fund Vanguard Fidelity Black Rock all own the same stuff
• 13:30 - 14:00 exactly and look at 0809 Washington Mutual City Bank this is what happened like they all owned the same I don't mean to interrupt but now of course you know this has been being said for the last two to three years very true and I've said it too by the way like I've been wrong about this uh just continuing as it has but every quarter that you keep going where things just are like a party-like environment add you know it UPS the ante to a larger selloff so instead of a 8 to 10% correction I'm
• 14:00 - 14:30 expecting more of like a 12 to 15% correction minimum and a 20% correction on stuff like the S&P is considered you know a a major correction so I I think that's on the table for 2025 okay so John earlier you brought up Nvidia their market cap is currently 11.7% of US GDP it's more than double the market cap of Cisco at its peak during the Doom bubble which was 5 a half% of USG DP is their CEO Jensen hang
• 14:30 - 15:00 is he the most important person in 2025 for everyone's investment returns I mean given the unprecedented concentration in stocks that you just talked about isn't it so goes Nvidia so goes your year um it really is those seven stocks to me because again like a Fidelity of vanard of Black Rock these were all very successful institutions in ' 089 right they were but now they're much much more
• 15:00 - 15:30 successful so the assets that they're managing are much much greater and so the selloff will feel way worse I think in 2025 or 2026 than it did in 0809 because you've got a lot more people you know gambling in the stock market now right this is more like a casino like environment than an investing environment to me so if we do have the sharp selloff like you're you know envisioning is there a point is it 10% 15 20% in this
• 15:30 - 16:00 compressed period of time where you believe okay the fed's going to step in they just they have to yeah I mean they're they're telegraphing two 25 basis point Cuts in 2025 as we sit here right now um let's just see how things unfold I mean uh inflation is going to be big for them right CPI um I I I don't believe CPI is headed in the direction they want you
• 16:00 - 16:30 know I mean it got close to 2% barely if you want to be like fair about it um and then it just went the other way right so like I think Trump is going to be inflationary for the US market um and uh that is something that is sort of helping gold right now I believe right as we speak that you know that 2629 an ounce resistance kind of flipped the support this week um which is really bullish for gold if it holds because
• 16:30 - 17:00 you'll take another run of 2,800 at some point next year or excuse me later this year and then I think that big round number 3000 is going to get hit this year which would imply a nice return here from 2625 or 2610 yeah there's a lot of folks in your Camp I saw a um an image today online there was about 20 to 25 different analysts and Banks and 75% of them are predicting 3,000 Plus for for this year so speaking of gold it got off to the
• 17:00 - 17:30 great start in 2024 around March and except for the last two months it continued Rising throughout the year though with high volatility the net result the metal ended the year at around 2600 per ounce up 26% that was the best performance since 2010 what are you expecting are we seeing another 26% are we seeing 10% you know what are you envisioning this year for gold we don't look out a year on anything I don't think in this market you really can um I
• 17:30 - 18:00 I would say that we'll touch 3,000 this year which would imply what is that a uh you know 10% you know kind of 10 12% kind of return on gold uh at least touching 3,000 um that's not really exciting to me as a portfolio manager I want to make a lot more money than that right so like I'm telling people you have to look at gold stocks right now um there's three types of mining stocks right there's producers there's developers and there's explorers and you
• 18:00 - 18:30 know we own all three types of gold stocks um ones that are nearing production like Daenerys Metals DN rsf you have to buy a stock like that here at 44 cents and hold your nose like I mean that's going to go into production this quarter so you know I believe guys like sarafino are going to get it done because of 20 years experience at a company like ays right where he killed it there in the same country you look for these kind of opportunities and say
• 18:30 - 19:00 why is this stock so undervalued it's because people um because of Victoria gold and other things that didn't go well kind of wait to see how things start off right and then they B they buy that's a that's a mistake you need to pick up the phone and and talk to people like you know sarapo or Mike at the company and say tell me about your experience with you know mining in Colombia tell me about your overall experience what hurdles have you faced in building this mind that you didn't think you were going to face are those overcomable what kind of money do you
• 19:00 - 19:30 need for this year right like these are just logical questions anyone can ask a CEO but if they don't feel comfortable doing that then partner with a service like ours that does that every single week so speaking of I understand that you beat the GDX in 2024 by about 16% what's your investment philosophy how do you you know how would you explain uh why your gains were so much better it's really that our firsten screen is is people Gary like people
• 19:30 - 20:00 that have experience we rarely will buy anything with someone that has minimal experience at the helm uh there's just too many things that can go wrong in mining so even if the project is awesome and you have a really inexperience CEO uh we're just not interested you know we we we gravitate towards 20 plus years of experience because those CEOs have seen Cycles like we talked about right they've they've seen uh 20 a 2000 a 2008 2020 and they know how to manage
• 20:00 - 20:30 Capital through times like that if we run into another rough patch um so we split we don't say hey we want this much gold exposure this much silver this much in critical minerals we just look at the entire Commodities universe and then try to find good companies within each of the metals um one of the themes that we played last year that helped our outperformance was critical minerals um I was part of the DC conf conference for critical minerals um in April and we had
• 20:30 - 21:00 about 55 companies there that were from every Walk of Life not not just copper uranium you know like more mainstream but you know tarium uh antimony uh tungston and so when you get to know some of these stories you know they can add a lot of value to your overall portfolio because they don't have analyst coverage and the average person's totally confused when it comes to some of these metals and how they work right but just taking antimony for an example Morgan Stanley wrote up
• 21:00 - 21:30 antimony in April with perpetual resources PPA and that to me was huge because coming from that world for 25 years Morgan Stanley doesn't write up mining stocks much so to me that was like a big deal and we got behind perpetu there that you know helped our return but also we looked at what other medals would be considered uh you know um really produced heavily in China which is a a country that you know clearly Trump doesn't like if Trump wins
• 21:30 - 22:00 this is going to be frictional for 2025 and Beyond and I think that's exactly the environment we're in right now um you know something like tungsten was produced 91% I think in combination of Russia and China last year the US produced zero% of tungsten um and what does tungsten do well it's used in body armor it's used in ammunition it's used in things that as we fight these wars or fund Wars um tungsten is going to become much more critical as a mineral going forward we
• 22:00 - 22:30 think the Department of Defense is going to start recognizing this kind of thing and if you don't believe me look at fire weed Metals news uh FW EDF on December 16th just two weeks ago they got a $35 million Grant from the government to help fund efforts in a mine uh that has tungsten in it right so like there's not a lot of these out there and and so like free money is very very good right it's non-dilutive to you and me as shareholders and so so we're looking for other companies like Guardian metal
• 22:30 - 23:00 resources GMT LF dzn uh dmrf these are both us-based tungsten plays and we're saying why wouldn't that you know follow suit if they're going to get a grant why wouldn't these other companies get a grants and if you talk to the CEOs at both of these companies they're both saying yeah that's that's that's smart of you to think that way because we're in better jurisdictions than Canada and rvw we're in Idaho and Nevada and um Trump's going to have our back right like this is this is the kind of
• 23:00 - 23:30 environment we're moving into so I think as an investor you always have to think about okay if I made mistakes in the past take a loss right or get get out flat and then put money into sectors like this that will actually have you you know get a a good return and and make up for those losses that's really good advice and there's a lot of interesting information you just shared there staying on the miners for one moment here what John what is your view on why the miners can be making so much money like the gold miners and be so
• 23:30 - 24:00 cheap at the same time um that's a great question if you look at the last couple of quarters um The Big Three within GDX The Big Three Holdings are Newmont NM ago am and baric G um if you look at the earnings of these companies over the last few quarters they've been putting putting up some great free cash flow numbers um they're not yielding the best new month probably got the best yield of the three but they're still paying some type of
• 24:00 - 24:30 dividend and I think that'll be more attractive as we move from a growth oriented Market to a value oriented Market you know value managers like to see coupons out there um they like to see some sort of yields associated with the stock they're buying um I think part of the problem Gary is that you know energy costs are if you're a producer are you know how much is diesel going to cost in a trump presidency right that's a concern like diesel is going up oil's going up in our view so as you're
• 24:30 - 25:00 producing your costs are going up too so let's say your costs are going up and gold levels off here at 2600 and drops to say 2,300 well that 10% haircut in the price is going to you know decrease your Mar your profit margins because these companies are producing gold at between 14 and 1650 an ounce right so very healthy margins as we sit here right now but if Energy prices go up and gold prices go down then you know you got a bit of a problem and I think the
• 25:00 - 25:30 market is kind of handicapping that which I think isn't a concern because I I see like you said like most banks that gold is going to 3,000 at some point next year and these margins are going to get better not worse so in essence you're it sounds like you're saying and I'm not saying you believe it 100% but you're saying that the market is essentially saying they don't believe the higher gold price and the lower oil price they believe the oil is going to go higher and the and the and Gold's coming down some so margins are going to
• 25:30 - 26:00 compress right right and and and and if again if you don't believe me look at new month's last quarters you know their costs are continuing to go up that's why the stock can't catch a bid is that they're they're Asic they're all sustaining cost right now per ounce is around 1650 which is quite high for a major and um the market wants to see you know 14 1500 I think they're but you do believe you believe it's actually going to go in the opposite direction that the market are even though the market currently is believing in com in
• 26:00 - 26:30 compressing margins it's actually going to expand yeah I mean like if they don't get to 14 or500 an ounce what's going to help them is the higher gold price right so like if gold goes from 26 to 200 to 3,000 then then they're they're still even at 1650 going to make a much larger margin per ounce than they are right now and so I just don't see oil like running out of control like some people do um I think will head higher but I don't think that's going to cut into earnings as
• 26:30 - 27:00 much as people think so UBS uh Bank recently put out a report on Silver that they're they have a very bullish Outlook they're saying $38 per ounce by the end of the year is that in line with your analysis yeah so your major resistance uh points on Silver are obviously 30 30 was 11 years resistance um we're right under 30 right now I think we'll break through that literally this month um 32 to 33 which has been problematic for
• 27:00 - 27:30 silver last year 35 which was obviously the the big Line in the Sand last year and then 38 so we see those as sort of rather than saying we think this is going to happen you know we always give give investors like resistance levels so that they can kind of look at things and not get frustrated right getting derailed in this sector is super easy so you have to look at it and say okay great we took at that first resistance Point John was talking about 30 now let's focus on 32 33 if 32 to 33 breaks
• 27:30 - 28:00 you're going to test 35 again which it did last year it ran up to 34 to 35 and failed so that's really what my eyes are on more than 38 because there's not a ton of resistance Gary between 35 and 50 really um historically you know we've hit $50 an ounce twice in history so I think you can make another run at 50 um over the next 12 days he months which would mean these silver equities are going to fly so as long as long as they it bust through the 35 resistance level
• 28:00 - 28:30 yeah 35 is you know making a higher high than 2024 would be very bullish for the metal okay so you know John you talked about uranium before uh earlier there's been incredible amounts of bullish news over the last 12 to 18 months I can go through the it's a Litany of it but why haven't these catalysts really had an immediate positive impact on uranium stock prices and uh uranium prices in general and do you see the most recent news from the other day of the split
• 28:30 - 29:00 between kazad and prom and camoo over a joint venture that they had uh being kind of like a cigar Lake moment where we could see a significant price surge here in the metal and the equities moving forward so this time last year I was at vck in Vancouver and I met with probably seven or eight different uranium CEOs uh in three days and the the sentiment was so so good uh and it is now so bad from
• 29:00 - 29:30 those same people uh so that that should tell you something about mining again if you don't have the stomach to last in in in sectors like uranium you should probably invest in something else it's very difficult that said uranium is going to have a really good couple of years whether it's this year I don't know I think that um the price getting above 100 bucks last year was extremely bullish we saw a lot of the Juniors explode on that the majors did really really well but interestingly the majors
• 29:30 - 30:00 meaning like Cho like you mentioned ccj Dennis and DNN they all did really well even later in the year and made higher highs in some cases so that's really bullish so if you wanted to play the big cap stuff which has been working in my opinion then you buy Ur which is you know an ETF out there you can purchase that encompasses like GDX a lot of the larger uranium stocks but we play a lot in the small stuff because the small
• 30:00 - 30:30 stuff has literally been thrown out the window like it's never going to work again and that's just completely ridiculous right I mean if you believe in uranium in general you have to believe in the small guys that are going to be gobbled up by the big guys so you saw Peninsula energy just went into production in December last month um it's in Wyoming it's not in the Congo right like this is Wyoming like these guys have done a good job of getting to production and yet the market is doesn't even care it's it's unbelievable um Forum energy you know I talked to Rick
• 30:30 - 31:00 merer who's been doing uranium for 41 years and we were talking about this rookie Trader that was blowing his stock out from four and a half cents down to three cents in one trade in less than one minute um and I said you know three million shares cross the tape what the heck happened and Rick was like look that I you know we'll find out and he did find out who it was and you know it was it was a one-time event during tax loss season so thank God we were on the bid at three cents one of the other things Gary to you know answer your question about what we do is we don't we
• 31:00 - 31:30 don't um we don't enter one buy order we enter two at least all the time one is going to be closer to the action one is going to be away from the action like that was in case something crazy happens like that so we can capture that um that upside and now the Stock's at you know 043 it's like up over 50% or about 50% from that which was less than a month ago um so the the volatility in these things are uh uh astronomical and I
• 31:30 - 32:00 think that the real upside is buying the small and mid-tier stuff right now the big stuff is going to make you money like we still own Dennison and some other names but I think that the real big money is going to be made in the small stuff as we move forward well this has been a fantastic conversation before we wrap up here and I asked John the final question I want to point everyone over to our substack go to medals and minors. substack consumer economy markets artificial
• 32:00 - 32:30 intelligence individual metals and Miners and all the expert interviews that we conduct just like this one they are all up there and when you subscribe we want to give you a free gift it's a report that we wrote it's based on the important Ray doio foundational premise it's titled if you don't own gold you know neither history nor economics it's a free gift and it's a must-read for everyone on why we all should own gold so head over to medals and minor. substack put in your email address to subscribe
• 32:30 - 33:00 and receive the free gift on us also positive you've enjoyed the conversation with John as much as I have please let him know hit the like And subscribe button and leave a comment below the video all right John it's time for a lightning round moment here okay I'm GNA ask you to rank a few assets as a buy or a sell by you giving it a score of 1 to 100 with 100 being an extreme buy and one being an extreme sell and then giving just one sentence as to why you
• 33:00 - 33:30 take that position okay you ready yeah just in full disclosure though I'm not uh licensed anymore so saying buy and sell is a little rough for me I'll just give a number um and happy to add some sentences or yeah yeah one to 100 uh just for reference for those listening 100 would be yeah that's something I would definitely buy all right so on a scale one to 100 gold for next year for 2025 yeah so uh
• 33:30 - 34:00 I'd say a 90 okay and why do you take that position uh just a lot of uncertainty in 2025 and a great 2024 technically that it's building off of uh silver Silver's uh 95 um this gold to Silver ratio right now which is dividing an ounce of gold by an ounce of silver is literally at 90 if you go back to 1980 and look uh gold is over ratio every time it hits 90 is a buy every
• 34:00 - 34:30 single time except two times since 1980 copper oh man I want to give it a higher grade I'm gonna say 60 because I just I have to see the price action to believe in it because I see the big institutions loving it and I'm not seeing it in the price action yet do you have any speculation as to why uh yeah I mean I I think China you know uh and the us are going to Duke it out this year so I I don't know how that
• 34:30 - 35:00 ends for China and China is the biggest consum consumer of copper so that's Weighing on people's minds I think for now and uranium uranium I'd say like a 75 uh to 80 and um I think you know again building on a really goodlook chart for the uranium price equities will catch up well I want to have you back on where we can go deeper into some of these individual equities but John thank you for coming on to medals and Miners and
• 35:00 - 35:30 for being so generous with your time your analysis and ideas it's really been a lot of fun to spend the time with you would you please summarize your views that you covered today and let those know that are tuning in where they could learn more about your work and how they can connect directly with you yeah so I'm an independent thinker we don't as you can tell buy stuff that has a ton of analyst coverage I think that's where you make the most of your money we we we as I mentioned buy all types of stocks
• 35:30 - 36:00 in the commodity space we buy the producers we buy the developers we buy the Explorers we also buy royalties you know we we don't uh we don't discriminate um so we're we're buying a bunch of different things and that appeals to a lot of investors because not all investors want to buy just one type of anything so um the name of the game for us is making clients money you know if if you can make money I think people will continue to follow you if you're underperforming they won't and so
• 36:00 - 36:30 you know we grind every single day to try to make performance happen in in the portfolio um people can find our performance we were very transparent with it for the last nine plus years on fenic consulting.com uh we'll have our 10e history December 31st of this year and we're very pleased uh about that uh it's been it's been a grind but I think that when that number comes out we'll we'll be top desile probably globally um and you know to get there makes me feel really good that's wonderful John I've
• 36:30 - 37:00 been following you for a couple of years and so I really appreciate you coming on here I look forward to having you back on sometime soon everybody if you're not following John you got to follow John go check out his website check out his work dig under the covers there under the hood have a look and I'm sure you're going to enjoy what you see there so thank you for being here with us and everybody else thank you for watching I want to point everyone over to our
• 37:00 - 37:30 substack go to medals and minor. substack docomond the consumer economy markets artificial intelligence individual medals and Miners and all the expert interviews that we conduct just like this one they are all up there and when you subscribe we want to give you a free gift it's a report that we wrote it's based on the important Ray Delo foundational premise it's titled if you don't own gold you know neither history nor economics it's a free gift and it's a must-read for everyone on why we all
• 37:30 - 38:00 should own gold so head over to medals and minor. substack doccom put in your email address to subscribe and receive the free gift on us [Music]