Matthew Piepenburg, Henrik Zeberg, Francis Hunt: Hyperinflation, stagflation or massive recession?

Summary

This video features a discussion between Matthew Piepenburg, Henrik Zeberg, and Francis Hunt on the current financial climate and future economic prospects. They delve into the expectations of a possible economic downturn, whether it will evolve into hyperinflation, stagflation, or a massive recession. The experts analyze the repercussions of excessive debt, money printing, and the impact on markets like gold. These speakers emphasize widespread speculation, distrust in global financial systems, and the increasing relevance of gold as a safeguarding asset. They debate the potential onset of a recession with comparisons to previous financial crises, reflecting on geo-political dynamics and currency evaluations.

Highlights

• Matthew Piepenburg sees the rise in distrust in global financial systems and emphasizes the role of gold. 🪙
• Henrik Zeberg suggests we are nearing the end of a super cycle, hinting at an impending economic downturn. 🔄
• Francis Hunt highlights the geopolitical and financial shifts, especially concerning the US dollar's role. 🌐
• Trends like deglobalization and the resurgence of manufacturing are forecasted to impact the global economy significantly. 🏭
• The discussion underscores how central banks and nations are gravitating towards gold in response to fiat currency challenges. 🏦

Key Takeaways

• Global markets are on edge, with experts predicting a possible massive recession. 📉
• The panel discusses hyperinflation, stagflation, and recession as potential outcomes of the current economic situation. 🤔
• There's significant concern about the impact of excessive debt and the sustainability of continuous money printing policies. 💰
• Gold is gaining attention as a hedge against economic uncertainty and is seen as a vital asset amidst widespread financial distrust. 🪙
• Geopolitical tensions and shifts in financial hegemony, such as movements within the BRICS nations, are pivotal in shaping the future economic landscape. 🌍

Overview

In a riveting discussion, financial experts Matthew Piepenburg, Henrik Zeberg, and Francis Hunt explore the complexities and uncertainties surrounding the current global economic environment. The conversation navigates through the possibility of a major recession looming on the horizon, evaluating varied outcomes like hyperinflation, stagflation, or a severe downturn akin to the Great Depression.

The dialogue delves into important indicators such as excessive money printing, the alarming levels of debt, and systemic financial vulnerabilities, which all point toward an increasingly unstable economic climate. These financial gurus shed light on the geopolitical undercurrents, especially the rise of economic collaborations outside the traditional Western alliance, notably the BRICS nations.

With a focus on gold, both as an asset and symbol of stability in turbulent times, the experts dissect why gold is re-emerging as a crucial element in portfolios worldwide. They highlight how global markets see gold as a means to preserve wealth amidst growing distrust in fiat currencies, reflecting an era of anticipated profound financial transformations.

Chapters

• 03:00 - 05:30: Introduction to the panelists and setup The chapter introduces the panelists who discuss current economic conditions and speculations around a potential recession. One panelist expresses the belief that we're nearing the end of a super economic cycle, referring to widespread speculation, global money printing, and the potential for a final strong market move in the US before a severe recession occurs. This recession is predicted to be the worst since 1929. The conversation also includes mentions of the rising gold price and its driving factors.
• 04:00 - 06:30: Matthew's background and views on gold In this chapter, the discussion revolves around Matthew's perspective on the current financial climate, focusing on the role of gold. He suggests that the distrust and fear among major financial entities such as central banks, sovereign funds, and high-net-worth individuals are rising. Drawing an analogy to the Titanic, he implies that people see gold as a life preserver amid economic uncertainty. The chapter also hints at the UK's questionable decision-making regarding their gold reserves.
• 09:00 - 14:30: Henrik's background and economic outlook In this chapter, the focus is on Henrik's perspective on the global economic landscape. He references countries like the Cayman Islands, Belgium, and Luxembourg, suggesting they might be significant players in what he describes as a 'Ponzi scheme' potentially on the verge of collapse. There is an implication of an impending economic reset, and the chapter seems to raise questions on what form such a reset might take. Furthermore, there is a call to action for readers to stay informed on financial developments through exclusive content and updates, encouraging them to subscribe via a QR code or a link.
• 15:00 - 21:00: Francis Hunt's background and market perspective The chapter introduces the topic as a special edition recording of 'The Future of Finance' in English. The narrator expresses pride in assembling an excellent team for this venture. This sets the scene for an interview or discussion with Francis Hunt, focusing on his background and his perspectives on the market.
• 22:30 - 26:00: Current economic status and predictions of a recession The chapter explores the current economic climate and examines potential indicators of an upcoming recession. It touches on the international perspectives, including viewpoints from individuals who have lived in different parts of the world. The discussion seems to have taken place soon after a significant event, possibly related to photography or media. Despite the global insights, the narrative is casual, marked by personal anecdotes and linguistic challenges faced by non-native English speakers.
• 35:00 - 38:00: Counterparty risk and trust issues in the global market This chapter discusses the dynamics of counterparty risk and trust in the global market. It highlights a conversation between participants who met through social media, emphasizing the spontaneous and positive outcomes of their interactions. The chapter illustrates how such connections can lead to collaborative opportunities and ventures, despite the global concerns of counterparty risk. It portrays a real-world example of how trust can be established, even in a digital environment, promoting further engagements and meetings.
• 41:00 - 45:30: Perspective on the future of finance The chapter explores the anticipated trends and possibilities shaping the future of finance. The dialogue is facilitated by Gold Republic and OKX, aiming to bring together thought leaders in finance to deliberate on various pertinent topics. Discussions will encompass macroeconomics, gold, cryptocurrencies, different asset classes, and financial markets. Strategies for hedging in volatile environments are highlighted, with a particular focus on gold set for upcoming sessions. Notable speakers such as Olaf Dirkmat and Roy Fan Krimpen will be contributing insights in future discussions. Additionally, there is a promotional element involving a giveaway.
• 45:30 - 52:00: Debt cycles and economic challenges The chapter begins with a promotional segment where the speaker mentions a giveaway involving gold. Participants are required to comment 'gold' and have accounts with OKX and Gold Republic to be eligible. Following the promotional details, the speaker transitions to the main topic of the chapter which involves introductions and presumably a discussion on debt cycles and economic challenges.
• 55:00 - 60:00: Impact of tariffs and global trade dynamics The chapter discusses the impact of tariffs and global trade dynamics, featuring insights from Matthew Peepenberg, a well-regarded figure in the gold industry. Peepenberg shares his journey to valuing gold as a high-conviction asset, influenced by his experiences in risk asset spaces during events like the dotcom bubble. The chapter sets the stage for in-depth explorations of these topics over the following days.
• 64:00 - 69:00: Military-industrial complex and geopolitical implications The chapter reflects on experiences in the financial sector during the 1990s, highlighting the extreme volatility and unpredictability of the market during that time, characterized by bubbles and distortions in asset classes. The narrator recounts a personal success story of profiting from a pre-IPO investment and transitioning to managing a family office. In this role, they gained insight into evaluating various portfolio managers and assessing investment strategies, focusing on preserving the wealth they had accrued through fortunate investments.
• 73:00 - 80:00: Economic downturns and potential opportunities The chapter discusses market risks, currency risks, and banking risks that are becoming more prevalent. It highlights the speaker's transition from simply understanding gold to actively investing in it, specifically in Switzerland. The speaker formed a relationship with Egon, not just as a client but also as part of a group interested in gold and risk assets. Overall, the speaker reflects on the nature of risks, investment strategies, and the cyclical nature of the market, emphasizing a background as a fortunate trader.
• 83:00 - 91:00: Future of global currencies and gold standard potential The chapter discusses the potential future of global currencies and the role of the gold standard. It includes insights from a high conviction gold investor who views gold as a wealth preservation asset rather than a speculative one. The chapter also introduces Henrik Zeber, a macroeconomist and advisor to Swiss Block, who shares his transition from a consulting background to the finance industry.
• 145:00 - 147:00: Session closure and promotion The chapter titled 'Session closure and promotion' features a macroeconomist from the University of Copenhagen, who discusses their professional background. Originally a consultant, they focused on AI in recent years before pivoting to the financial industry, spurred by the financial crisis. Reflecting on this personal and professional shift, they acknowledge being caught off guard by the crisis, a sentiment shared by many in the field.

Matthew Piepenburg, Henrik Zeberg, Francis Hunt: Hyperinflation, stagflation or massive recession? Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 is there a recession is it postponed what does that mean we are at the end of a u of a super cycle we have some widespread speculation we have money printing uh around the world i think there is a final move in it i have tried to promote this the blowoff top i still still think there is a one very strong move in the in the us market at least but you know after that i think things can develop rather fast actually and i think we will see a a terrible recession i think it's going to be the worst we've seen since 1929 i think we're already in recession on the gold price what's driving it higher talk to the gold
• 00:30 - 01:00 retailers it's not the consumer they are wrecked it is as said by matthew central banks hedges billionaires semi-millionaires big money nation states sovereign funds there is a lot of distrust and i think fear and it's just like as the water rises on the titanic's bow and it's no longer just a question of maybe we need to change our tuxedos into a warmer jacket everyone's looking for that life preserver now uk who just sent them all their gold it's like the uk wants to be bankrupt the united
• 01:00 - 01:30 kingdom is the grower cayman islands belgium and luxembourg if you don't think these are proxies for sustaining the final hour or two of a ponzi scheme in a state of collapse and how does that reset look to you guys how does that reset look to you what is that in the form of want to stay updated on the future of finance with exclusive content giveaways events and more scan the qr code or click the link in the description and leave your email address behind
• 01:30 - 02:00 [Music] welcome to this very special uh edition recording of the future of finance english edition it's actually the first time we're doing this and i have to say i'm really proud of myself for having been able to pull an avagant team that
• 02:00 - 02:30 assembled here within a month literally some of you and there serendipitous re serendipitous serendipitous i'm always like there's a few words that as a french man it's it's it's a bit tough to to get um and francis you actually live a couple of months a year here you're actually south african uh believe it or not um you were uh a week ago at the photo event uh up
• 02:30 - 03:00 joeberg near well in the high about three hour three and a half hours from johannesburg exactly so that was also perfect timing and henrik who i wrote and i we basically never talked to each other before and i wrote you on twitter on x and i told you about this and you were like hooked you like yeah absolutely yeah why not why not why not come they're shavier than this right so uh yeah sir mostly to meet francis and i i think but this isn't bad yeah exactly yeah so that's beautiful and to give a bit of context to the viewer uh so the
• 03:00 - 03:30 future of finance is organized and enabled by gold republic and okx um we've been doing this to well gather like thought leaders and finance discuss different topics we'll be talking about macro gold crypto all kinds of assets uh financial markets how to hedge yourself uh we'll also have deep dive in gold specifically in a few days and we'll have also olaf dirkmat and roy fan krimpen who are not in this session but will be in the next ones and a bit of promotion as well we uh give away five
• 03:30 - 04:00 times 1 g of gold so that's worth about 90 i don't know how many pounds quick calculation here 70 i would say uh for one gram of gold um away so you just have to comment gold g o l d in the comment section and we'll be choosing a winner but the only condition is that you need to have an account at okx and gold republic that's the only condition so now that we have like all the promotional stuff out of the way i would like to actually start with a small round uh of introductions of this
• 04:00 - 04:30 beautiful avenger team we have here starting from my left matthew peepenberg you're a partner at fun griats you're a very respected voice in the golden industry i have to say people love your views you were very spot on but maybe you want to give a a short a short introduction yeah i mean obviously u i've come to gold as a high conviction asset for um many different reasons which we'll all share on the next few days my background originally um real quickly was in the risk asset space during the dotcom bubble of my
• 04:30 - 05:00 generation the 90s which was a crazy time everything um it was an interesting lesson in highs and lows and and bubbles and asset class kind of perversions and then i went from really winning a lottery ticket in a very lucky trade an ipo a preipo to running a family office and i was on the buy side for many years allocating to other portfolio managers and kind of smell testing the good the bad and the ugly in that space and i was more interested at that point in my life and how to preserve what i was lucky enough to have and then i looked at um
• 05:00 - 05:30 you know where do you go in times of not just of market risk or market hedges but currency risk and banking risk which are all creeping up on us now and i didn't become a gold bug i just became gold uh informed and then i i was looking to allocate some money into gold in switzerland i met egon we we got along very well and i decided not just to be a client but be a a member of the group and so we'll have a lot to discuss about gold and risk assets and cycles but uh i was basically a very lucky trader uh and
• 05:30 - 06:00 then an allocator and now i'm a very high conviction gold investor as wealth preservation more than a speculation asset and a long-term thinker on gold so that's my quick background yeah thank you and we have also henrik zeber you're also a macro uh economist and you're also an adviser to swiss block maybe you want to say a few words also about your journey and what brought you in finance yeah sure uh so i um i actually come from not from the financial industry i come from a consulting um background so
• 06:00 - 06:30 um and i'm a macroeconomist as from from the university of copenhagen but uh for many years i i i worked as a consultant with um with also with ai in the later years and uh and then uh well over the last uh 16 17 years i i then started to to dive more into the financial uh industry uh very much triggered by the the financial crisis where i probably was a victim of uh kind of didn't see what was coming like so many others and then uh woke up and uh kind
• 06:30 - 07:00 looked at myself and say how could it be that it could go so wrong so from that on started out my own journey on in the financial industry building my my own um model my my way of looking at things which combines you would say um different techniques and some will be more technical some are more fundamental uh basing it on a uh on a understanding of the business cycle the way that i how i see it so i i kind of like to to look at myself like a uh a bruce lee of the financial world uh pulling in the different kind of martial arts or
• 07:00 - 07:30 financial uh you know analysis and then using it in in in a in a kind of a combined way um i hope it works um it it seems to work and there are some things that are that are yeah going going well uh when it comes to gold well i'm you know maybe different from what most people think i'm also in the long term you seeing gold as a u as the asset uh as for wealth preservation um i think there is uh a lot of speculation these days in the world that is actually the very problem of the world at this point and i think gold again will come to to
• 07:30 - 08:00 shine um and it's more about you know when or where are we in that in that in that uh cycle and so will we have a a pull uh pull back first in in gold and uh but but come after that well you know being in gold is absolutely a must we'll keep all the juicy details about that for later in the conversation and last but not least francis hunt or de facto actually country host because this is your country this beautiful country and i i want to take this moment to actually just share how how well we we talked
• 08:00 - 08:30 about this before but i want to say it on camera as well how i love this country i mean look at the views the people uh the food uh everyone is super kind to you service for a fraction of a cost of what you would be able to buy in copenhagen or in amsterdam and uh with those beautiful sceneries i mean i i mean i hope the cameras can actually really uh catch this depth of view but you have the mountains we're here in constansia um where we able to uh to uh yeah host you and record like those uh
• 08:30 - 09:00 those conversations um what about uh your journey you've been 30 years in the markets uh you have your youtube channel called the market sniper uh where you share all those uh insights that you have and you also interview quite a lot of very interesting guests would you like to share a few words about that sure yeah uh well firstly thank you for picking to uh use our country uh for this event and we're delighted to have you and we welcome you to africa um and and i
• 09:00 - 09:30 enjoyed the great guests as well that i'm enjoying to share time with i love the bruce lee i was a massive fan of bruce lee uh my only concern is i while i start aspire to be the bruce lee of finance i probably turn into the forest gump of uh finance uh i step in the brown stuff and uh things just tend to happen uh around me but yeah my history short uh short take on my history is essentially um i preferred the idea out of inherent laziness to see how money works for you rather than work for money
• 09:30 - 10:00 um and i noticed you know when my parents were working that they had investments during the 87 stock market boom that were going up whilst my father was going and toiling for a very long time in the day and i wondered i thought well that's the more interesting side than the work side so i was uh inherently lazy inherently greedy and desperate to get social standing that a fast car and uh nice stuff would acquire for you as a as a young teenage male yeah um but that grew and developed and uh i recognized patterns and i started
• 10:00 - 10:30 to try seek to understand the macro fundamentals of how the systems worked so i started interviewing and talking to some of the people you've referenced um and i learned a lot and i developed a unique methodology about how i look at charts and why targets are targets and how best to participate in the market so that you can get asymmetric rewards with limited properly managed risk because i failed horribly in that in the my early endeavors in trading and investing um so
• 10:30 - 11:00 that's kind of my history that brings me uh largely to today we've been lucky enough we've been able to call for big macro moves i especially like these kind of discussions where we we zoom right out we we we've got a beautiful aspect here we're looking at the whole lie of the land and i like being that eagle in the sky you know call it a bald eagle i suppose you have to go with that one um but overseeing the whole lie of the land and understanding and then you're a futurist of what comes next that's the big answer look at all the information
• 11:00 - 11:30 because the seeds of uh you know the outcomes of tomorrow are in the seeds of today so inherently there are things that we can actively recognize um and exploit in advance of them happening and that's where you get those asymmetric rewards uh with super tight risk for investment and careful judicious use of leverage so that's my story beautiful um so talking about actually just that because that's exactly how i think we should start this conversation is lay
• 11:30 - 12:00 the foundation of understanding where are we now and maybe also give a bit of context but not stretch it maybe too far because we only have a certain amount of time we can cover things um so where would you say that in terms of foundation and uh where we at now in time and looking at maybe the depth cycle or different uh frameworks uh we are now and maybe henrik you might you might start sharing uh your views on that well i think we are um we are at
• 12:00 - 12:30 the end of a u of a super cycle i would say i think it's uh when again also both of and i look at it in a technical perspective if you look at it in a historic historical perspective uh and uh yeah then then i think we are at a time where where we are i don't want to say it i don't want to sound like some doomsday kind of you know but but we are at the end of of of you know of a big thing here um we have widespread speculation uh we have uh money printing uh around the world uh it's like you know everything can be sold by by just
• 12:30 - 13:00 printing money so every time you suggest that you can have a a decline you'll say yeah but they'll just throw money at it and we know that that can continue we are actually starting to see inflation is moving up uh around the world and uh and i think we have uh for for the least for the last 16 17 years here since 2008 been living in a world where we we solve problems by kicking the can and i think there is only so much you know kicking that can be done before you actually get to the point where where you actually have to you know pick it up or do something about it and we and that's
• 13:00 - 13:30 that's the place we are at so i'm not saying we are we are there just yet i think there is a final move in it i have tried to promote this the blowoff top i still still think there is a one very strong move in the in the in the us market at least but but you know after that i think things can develop rather fast actually and i think we will see a um a terrible recession actually as i said also on on on in other interviews i think it's going to be the worst we've seen since 1929 not if uh not worse then but since because i think we're probably
• 13:30 - 14:00 a little more equipped today than we were back then but um but it's going to be bad because we have been blowing up valuation values uh in in all sorts of assets and uh and that's that's what has been driving growth also and um and so i i don't see a good end to it i think that we will finally see that you know that the the water will will start to move out inflation will come in it will actually you know limit the effect of what the fed and and other central banks can do and then you will see the effect of that so uh so i think there will be a
• 14:00 - 14:30 um a bad recession ahead of us but again i still see that we have a new very strong uh bull rally going from around these levels here mhm and i think also you've been uh saying that or sharing that view since a few years right if i look at some interviews you've been announcing that there's deflation that is uh coming ahead and obviously that's that's always the trillion quadrillion quazillion dollar question is when right uh and it's i think maybe more
• 14:30 - 15:00 interesting than to see what are the indicators what is are the data sets telling us what should we what should we be looking at uh in terms of those warning flags um that announce this recession well i i i for me i mean i i think for the first for that we we as as you also mentioned and uh that we are um that we are now finally starting to see yields are are moving up i mean for the last 40 some years we haven't seen we have seen
• 15:00 - 15:30 yields just moving down and you know keep moving down because we actually you know the popular saying is that folkar killed inflation and uh and i think it's more about the cyclical nature natur nature we have of you know debt and uh and yields and how they move up and down but you actually see that we i think we've come to the end of that that doesn't mean that yields are going straight higher from here and i know drton miller and others are talking about shorting the bond markets i think that the recession that i think we're heading into uh will actually push shields lower but i don't think we're going to get a new low on that and this
• 15:30 - 16:00 is the the thing that is this is one of the indicators that we are actually getting to a point here where there will be no free lunch any longer i mean then in 2008 you had the opportunity of actually starting to print money the japanese have done that or japan has central bank of japan japan has done that many years and you can create a sensation of wealth or you know the illusion of wealth but it's not the same as wealth you can create a bubble moving on into various assets i mean you can't tell me that many of the meme coins or cryptos that we we see that they are actually an you know real value so and
• 16:00 - 16:30 there will be a lot of other things also you've seen private equity companies around the world just you know scoop scooping up everything they can just to to find that yield the return for their investors and i think that that is going to come bite us now and uh that's why i so so what we really should be looking at now is for for the recessions the the start of the recession for me that's the short-term yields that's one of the indicators that tell me that we're getting there so the the 2-year yields when they start to decline i think we're getting closer to that moment and there
• 16:30 - 17:00 are certain levels i think we will we'll start an especially the momentum of it that's one of the things where i use techniques for the macro indicators when we start to see a certain momentum to the downside on the 2-year yields that's a pretty good time to see the the uh the recession starting and then i have a lot of leading indicators in my business cycle that tells me that we are we are getting to to that point so the only thing that's standing between that now is is the us labor market and if that is uh is failing us and i think it will at some point because also what we see in the housing market then i think it's the
• 17:00 - 17:30 onset of things and the free lunch is not there any longer you cannot just print print the you know print wealth again as as as some has tried in in the last 16 years do you have anything to add to that francis yes a lot of good points uh made there uh my my my framing is this is a debt based collapse that in 2020 the august call that we made that was the end of the 40-year bull market in bonds has far more long other um knock-on effects uh
• 17:30 - 18:00 as a as a call it's probably the most significant event on account that it's going to be the right sizing of america and i think by association the west that means the uk europe and the commonwealth nations as well and it just means america's bottomless overdraft credit card has been pulled and we're seeing this politically everything that you're seeing that's current narrative and twitter wars with doggy elon and trump that brings everybody into the more superficial realm is actually about
• 18:00 - 18:30 right sizing this is the elimination of waste this is the the downsizing of the american civil service um i see the military-industrial complex at 1/10enth of its size when this is entirely done so that means an immense amount of cutting and reduction including the new defense minister even said uh people that are noncore are going to be let go and all of this so actually what's happened is this is the first government it's kind of the the the oil tanker is almost on the lighthouse it's 200 m away
• 18:30 - 19:00 and the first time the captain is saying we really should try turn this oil tanker around um it's too little and it's too late and the repercussions of the withdrawal of that state expenditure is going to deliver the unemployment that um henrik is looking for in fact if you superimpose the yield curve inversion and the unemployment chart i'm visualizing it in my brain it would be great to give it to you to insert at this point um you actually see that the yield curve has reverted which is the key event that is normally associated
• 19:00 - 19:30 with eventual triggering of what we call a demand destroying event which will be what some people call disinflation or deflation in various forms uh and only thing i would so much in common with henrik but the only thing i'd say is i'd say it's closer and this is a dangerous call but it's closer than many realize the final unemployment shoe to drop is going to come around on the right sizing of the american state departments and there's going to be knock-on effects in that that's unemployment people who can't make mortgage payments anymore
• 19:30 - 20:00 that's going to have we're already seeing the consumer in great stress at the moment we're seeing ppi prices going up so you're seeing the inputs on production getting higher that's going to push the cpi uh up as well you've got the manufacturers expecting to have to raise prices but seeing weak demand at the same time you can't define stagflation any better than all these consumerbased indicators and the long run notion that mag 7 survives this if amazon still gets over 50% of its
• 20:00 - 20:30 revenue from uh online purchases not all aws to the militaryindustrial complex um it gets it from consumers buying books and you know uh weed trimmers and everything else people buy on the one world internet company uh and they they're going to see off understandably a major downturn and you have a hypervalued stock market because you were introduced into a binary world where there was two asset classes the 60/40 portfolio debt and equity and as debt has failed falling 50% since that
• 20:30 - 21:00 turning point you've seen hypervaluation the liquidity sloshing into the equity market that has led to a overvalued stock market so neither are attractive i will point out um that the tlt which is a long-term etf has record shorts now and usually that tells me it's too crowded a trade a little bit you know we were four years ago in our call and we took we took puts right up at 160 it's now at about 80 on the tlt uh ducken miller and paul tuda jones confirmed
• 21:00 - 21:30 their shorts only the back end of last year um i do think that will win and we will see a full contagion in debt but i first see a little bit of a rally and just recently again henrik is right about the rates getting higher but just recently we've seen a little bit of a slip back on rates so i already feel a little bit of riskoff vibes so i'm not sure we even get the blowoff that's the only differential i would add to henrik otherwise i concur with a lot of his views um it's also like really hard to keep it focused because there's like so many
• 21:30 - 22:00 aspects to it and maybe the blowoff on top is also kind of like what i'm feeling as the sentiment at the moment is did we reach um uh that moment but then that should actually be a moment of euphoria when there's like so much euphoric feeling about the the bull market that then it blows off which is maybe something we'll actually keep for for later but maybe uh back on on matt matthew um what you and when we talked before on the phone you were saying i see really like there's a big problem and it's like third party risk what do you mean by that i was think about
• 22:00 - 22:30 counterparty risk which sorry counterparty yeah which is we're tied to everything we're talking about um and it's as i was listening again we we we're going to agree and disagree for example i think we're already in recession i can go into that but um and i've been arguing that actually for a couple years some say it's postponed and we can look at some of the indicators and i was watching a movie that i love it's an american classic because it's a baseball movie it's called moneyball it's based on a true story book and billy bean the coach of this great team says "how can you not be romantic about baseball?" and as i look at debt how can
• 22:30 - 23:00 you not be perplexed by debt because everything starts there whether we talk about the bond markets yields recession indicators counterparty risk currency risk precious metals you know crypto whatever we're going to talk about including counterparty risk and distrust right now in a world kind of no longer waiting to be theoretically in a problem but in a problem now um it's fascinating and it all starts from the debt and this notion that you can solve a debt crisis with more debt this fantasy is no longer holding true it's amazing that it was even acceptable when it was working it's
• 23:00 - 23:30 again like saying a martini works and it's healthy until you have 15 and it still works until you have a bloody mary and three more but to think that that's not bad for your liver or the morning after is naive and yet we've been selling this for for so long and that goes to your question about this counterparty risk that's been on my mind because i think there was a trust in fantasy post 2008 post bernanki that we can solve a debt crisis with a little magic button at the fed and add a zero to a balance sheet every now and then to buy our unloved unwanted ius from
• 23:30 - 24:00 sovereign country x sovereign bond y absolutely a martini effect a steroid effect a dopamine rush absolutely great for risk assets in the top 10% of every country's you know ultra wealthy very bad for the middle class but this idea that this this lie this fantasy was credible that this fantasy modern monetary theory is neither modern nor monetary nor theory it's failed since the ancient rome through weimar through yugoslavia to south america to today so there's there's distrust now in the
• 24:00 - 24:30 official narrative there's distrust between the east and the west since we weaponized the us treasury in the in in in 2022 we're not going to the rabbit hole of whether zalinsky is george washington or putin is hitler 2.0 it's irrelevant the weaponization of world reserve currency was a mistake i think i think that had massive ramifications on the trust in this supposedly neutral world reserve asset the obvious ripple effects of that from the bricks 45 countries now trading outside the us dollar 30 countries repatriating their gold outside of into their own borders
• 24:30 - 25:00 now again you can say that bricks is sensational dolorization sensational we can talk about that all day long there's some truth and falsess to that but there's rapid changes what's happening in the petro dollar market oil sold outside of the petro dollar there's 20% global oil outside the petro dollar what's happening in the comics do you trust your gold in a new york warehouse or a london warehouse or do you want to bring it in all of these things we could spend an hour on each of these silos have to do with no one trusting each other or these other currencies or other bonds or ius or or or even risk assets
• 25:00 - 25:30 in the same way and because of that everyone is now looking for that life preserver because they don't trust each other geopolitically we have all kinds of issues whether you think of trump even there's a concern about is this guy he's refreshingly blunt he's refreshingly active but he's a bull in a china shop what's he going to do how much of what he says does he mean we're all trying to interpret his trump speak there is a lot of distrust and i think fear and it's just like as the water rises on the titanic's bow and it's no
• 25:30 - 26:00 longer just a question of maybe we need to change our tuxedos into a warmer jacket everyone's looking for that life preserver now and i hate to say this but of course we all agreed somewhat on gold is one of those life preservers we want something we can trust more than an iou from uncle sam we want something we can hold ourselves within our own jurisdiction we want what the bis is calling a new tier one asset instead of that risk-free return which is now return free risk based on inflation of the 10-year so it's not a gold bug argument it's history in motion there's distrust geopolitically there's distrust
• 26:00 - 26:30 financially there's distrust within our own government that's why us aid and doge are making headlines there's distrust between cryptos and gold there's distrust with cryptos themselves there's distrust with politicians within their own country all this distrust everyone's looking for that life preserver and one thing that people are looking to as they're worried about their currency their politician their counterparty their comics exchange whether it's london or new york their private versus banking vault their etf versus their old asset is ironically
• 26:30 - 27:00 this pet rock this analog joke that everyone's been ignoring for years and that a few sophisticated investors have been tracking for generations is now making the headlines again i don't think it's gold bug i think it's history so again all of this comes down to these counterparty concerns it doesn't mean that gold's the only asset it doesn't mean that gold only goes in a straight line that'll be something henrik has really fascinating points on that we should discuss really carefully but the very fact that gold is getting attention that's always kind of a bad sign actually that means trust in just about everything else is falling and i think that's that counterparty risk it's all
• 27:00 - 27:30 about trust and where do you look right now trust is falling in a lot of different levels and you can unpack that at just about any asset class but that's what how can you not be romantic about debt how can you not be romantic about gold right now how can we not be romantic in a in a kind of shoden freud way about what's going on in the world and it's fascinating to see play out and also like you're all familiar with ray dalio right he wrote a couple of books and he described this al as well like in terms of empires when we look at the way the world is um well ruled by the
• 27:30 - 28:00 us ruled system which was you could say in the financial system started with breton woods uh it's kind of starting with all also what you mentioned before start to crumble and trump might also be the the pin that actually either accelerates it or maybe like deviates it but the direction is pretty clear it is uh it is actually going downwards how do you think that this uh like what are the indicators to that i think also that if you you talked about this with the
• 28:00 - 28:30 weaponization of the us treasury and i think there is absolutely something to that and that's why we we're also seeing that response in the and you see the bricks and they started to move on that and i think that the the the whole um umbrella the the pax americana that we have been living under has been due to the fact that you had a reserve currency you had the us dollar he uh and we could you know the us could actually be spending all this money because we all supported that and i think with all the dis you know distrust coming into the
• 28:30 - 29:00 system now also you know cross you will probably see that there'll be a shakeup of all of that and i i think that is why i absolutely agree with you also and i think we all do and that gold will have a central place here with that uh i don't think like many people seem to believe these days that crypto or bitcoin will be the um it's simply unsafe i mean again it's down to there's a reason why the the the central banks of the world they they have their gold and they re you know taking it back home also and uh you want to hold it because
• 29:00 - 29:30 um you know by the end of the day it's about show me yours and i i'll show you you know then i'll show you mine and then we'll see who has the biggest one when it comes to gold is actually size that matters right and it's uh and and that will be also in the new world where we will see some kind of a new britain woods i think i think i've talked about the the um the the new uh the new deal in in just in the in the new monetized um world so we we will get a um monetized reset there monetary reset is what i'm trying to say monetary reset where where we simply we need to get the
• 29:30 - 30:00 uh the trust back into the into the uh the currency of the world and there is not a lot of trust in that right now it's been weaponized it has been over printed even though people call it's not printed but you can just look at the balance sheet of the u of the of the fed and uh so so it there is not that trust any longer and i think that is needed and and i think there is actually now a vacant place in the world i mean i put on twitter the other day i say well why you know europe we need to you know why don't we get the euro actually to to start you know build you know gold
• 30:00 - 30:30 positions in in the central banks of europe and and starting having a you know let's focus on getting a strong currency here that's some because then you'll have capital coming into that that was what you saw after the the breton woods also that the us obviously had central place in the world back then half the production of the world half the the amount of gold in the world at that point and then uh you know taking that position right now it's up for up for grasp i would say because it's been misused and i don't want to you know tread on anybody's toes here but it is actually what's been happening and that's why so i think there there needs
• 30:30 - 31:00 to be some kind of revitalization of things uh and obviously it was done in in the in the early '7s also with kissinger and the petra doll and all that that created that demand for the go for for for the dollar but even then that can can come to an end but right now i mean i don't see the i mean the dollar is strong so we don't see that dolorization we we we but we see the the ripple effects of a um of distrust in the in society and the in the economy and i think actually that is probably
• 31:00 - 31:30 where crypto can come in and the whole blockchain and that that you can have the the checks and balances on on on ownership and it's like that will probably in that new monetary that monetary reset maybe become something and i know people don't like when you talk about central bank digital currencies but but i could definitely see something of that with with a gold you know backing to it as a solution but for me we are further down the road there and and that's where i'm i'm absolutely also agreeing that that we we're i mean we are closer to it but
• 31:30 - 32:00 it's more the sequencing of things and i think that what we're going to see first is that the extreme valuations levels that we have now will will come crumbling down you're going to see a lot of you know um yeah misery or a lot of pain when when uh when you actually see the the deflationary effects coming out of when when people start to lose their jobs unfortunately and uh and crypto is not what people think and you'll start to see that the the you know um also stocks coming down which are at extreme levels i mean if you look at the uh market capitalization to gdp we we have
• 32:00 - 32:30 you know an extreme level on on the on the us u equity market there right so so i think you will see that effect first and then you think i i think that the geniuses of the central banks will come back in again with their guns blazing really quick that's what people are saying to me also but they will not allow a decline they will not allow u you know the economy to fall into a recession i think they will they will h it will start to happen it will begin to happen because nobody can prevent it it's part the cyclical nature to the economy but then they will come in and do it again and that i think is what
• 32:30 - 33:00 will onset offset the whole thing the stackflationary development so i think that that's where i'm i'm standing the camp of deflation first because you're going to see the economy start to develop and they will be late to the party like just like they were late also you know in hiking rates and also in bringing it down because they focus on on inflation as a uh one of their um yeah but i think that uh this idea that you can solve the economy or solve the
• 33:00 - 33:30 markets like a thermostat whether you're hawkish or doubbish with rates or balance balance sheet expansion of the money supply or uh the cost of money through rates or fed funds rates is just i think that's losing its bite and this question of the civil war you know this kind of nonviolent civil war this dichotomy in america as the american in the room i'll say this goes back to your actual first question our discussion on is there a recession or is it postponed what does that mean are we waiting for the nber to tell us there's one what are the indicators of a recession you know
• 33:30 - 34:00 look you can look at yield curves as you mentioned francis that kind of inversion then re-up and then what that indicates historically since world war ii that always indicates recession shifts in the m2 money supply the conference board lean indicators always right and then there's other things that are just less sexy wall street there's things like 13-year pinks and peaks and small business bankruptcies in the us right now the credit card delinquencies in the us are reaching where they were pre during the 2008 crisis car loans that are failing that's also a graph you can
• 34:00 - 34:30 put up this is what's bothering me the most about the recession waiting for the official notion because if you're in the top 10% of the us which frankly i am and i didn't grow up that way i was born in the bottom 10% but when you're in the top 10% you forget you know that that 90% of that inflated wealth which is directly correlated to the fed's easing and the pavlovian dovish fed since the great financial crisis where many millionaires became multi-millionaires and then some billionaires well they're doing just fine and the other thing that
• 34:30 - 35:00 i doubted about the other day is at the bottom 10% whether you're really poor or you're a legal illegal immigrant or asylum seeker you're doing fine too between hands out and welfare the ones that are getting crushed right now is the middle class they're in a recession by every metric and by every experience there's a great singer in virginia named oliver anthony wrote a song hit millions hundreds of millions of hits because he's speaking to the american experience from virginia but that's true in texas iowa michigan ohio everyone there who's struggling to beat inflation which we all know is a fiction misreported by
• 35:00 - 35:30 probably double digits they're not breaking even they're in a recession they have 20% of americans in the middle class have one job that pays pays for just their rent so then they have to get a second job to have anything else now that may not be 50 or 60% of americans in fact that's 20% of americans is appalling so you can look at the graphs the details the percentages but then also as you get the chance and we all have drive through tennessee michigan ohio drive through the outer parts of
• 35:30 - 36:00 philadelphia drive through not palm beach not park avenue not madison avenue not martha's vineyard or not even nantucket go into the real america where the middle class who walt whitman always said is the backbone of every nation and they are in a recession again using fancy wall street jargon using credit cards using business bankruptcies using car repossessions these are horrible things for the average person so that creates a civil tension that creates two americas that creates more counterparty
• 36:00 - 36:30 risk with each other and ironically trump the billionaire spoke to that middle class in a better way than the traditional parties did that were supposed to represent them again i'm not getting pro or negative on trump or pro or negative on the democrats but the ironies do abound again it goes back to this counterparty risk trying to find a new fantasy or a new solution to a problem that is not solvable now the titanic will sink there are some lifeboats not everyone gets to survive this there will be another day there will be another voyage it's not the end
• 36:30 - 37:00 of the dollar to your point on a relative basis i'd still prefer that over a lera peso and it doesn't mean that gold will save all these problems either but there is clear counterparty risk within our own society on a class level on a political level and then and then you get into the market level it's not going to be solved easily with more qe it's not going to be solved easily with more delutions anyway so i had to throw in my american perspective on that but and and it's again it's the financialization of everything cycle that needs to end so the the
• 37:00 - 37:30 counterparty risk is based on again the debt and the debt is based on everything because it's in cars it's in homes it's in hypervaluations not just in the stock market in property as well it's in uh commercial property residential property everything is overextended so the reason why i'm such a a doomer in terms of a downdraft to the point that i actually say most citizens should leave western world and see this out somewhere else because it's going to be so dark it's
• 37:30 - 38:00 going to be grim and a lot of the talent will leave once they see it happen you see being successful in investing is often the recognition of the future environment and then some your personal positioning therein it doesn't mean you have to be a brilliant executor i can be a brilliant surfer but you put me on a flat sea i ain't scoring any points for surfing but if i can position where there's going to be a great rip uh i know uh we have a surfer in the house uh and the conditions are going to be right and i'm
• 38:00 - 38:30 a moderately decent operator of my surfing technique i'm going to have a great ride on account of positioning and my my view is you need to sit this out and i want to tell a story about 2008 i had a friend who said you know throughout the the business cycle when they bottomed out they spent all their money that they'd made in the good times they marketed like hell they grafted like hell they lost money like hell he said in if we just shut the business for 5 years gone on holiday to thailand and come back and kickstarted it and said
• 38:30 - 39:00 "listen we're taking a you know a long work what do you call it sbatical uh and done that they would have had a better time they would have come back healthier fitter well-rested they were thrashed they were exhausted and then they had to deal with this really limp recovery uh and i'm saying to you you're going to face that in the nation state where you are there's better places to see this out because the undoing of a financialization of everything has multiple cuts and repercussions it's like that company that's failing that
• 39:00 - 39:30 has one set of layoffs and then comes and does another set of layoffs the morale gets destroyed there's another set of layoffs then they sell off one of the core businesses and they try cuddle around the one they think is the best only that then has reduced demand and they're no longer seen as a scale provider so they have another set of layoffs and i mean it is just morbidity it is just it's like watching people friends die in an economic sense and i my my argument is that extreme that i actually say watch this from a distance
• 39:30 - 40:00 rather because to unwind the debt at a consumer level a business level a municipal level you've got to talk about the states you got to talk about the municipalities california's bust a state level uh and then the governmental level every single one is now being unwind and it's being led by the new leaders that are doing this uh efficiency that i referred to when i first spoke so when you delever a system that is hyper overleveraged this is a net drain of all forms of liquidity so that means
• 40:00 - 40:30 hypervaluations crash i mean you want to buy a ferrari that most americans have got finance on it wait till this unwinds and they'll be going for a third of what they go but when you look at the prices of that fancy sports cars i watch them every now and then you know there's a 4x4 that it costs over 500,000 before you spec it in dollars for a 4x4 i think you'll pick that up for 140 in three or four years time maybe the mileage will be a bit higher because it isn't an asset it's con it's conspicuous
• 40:30 - 41:00 consumption and we we went into this whole world where we threw everything away and we just kept buying because we had the goldilocks period of offshoring our workshop the biggest failure of the western nations is letting their manufacturing sector die we offshored walk workshop to thailand china etc etc uh you take the uk and europe particularly uk is one of the worst lost all its manufacturing in essence became a financial service sector solely so now
• 41:00 - 41:30 you have more lawyers telling you how you can do a fancy derivative on a market that's no longer probably even going to be run because it's got to be deleveraged and flattened they're in the wrong game they're in the wrong wrong game the us they're too much manufacturing and if we look at the current political uh spectrum i actually think trump wants a weaker dollar but he'll never say that because he's bullish and he's pro-american and that's dollar strong he wants to bring manufacturing back that's why he's looking for resources in greenland he wants to make canada the 51st state and
• 41:30 - 42:00 all these funny stories he's realizing he needs resources he needs mining he needs manufacturing he's talking about oil dig dig dig or what is it drill drill drill uh whatever the thing all of these aspects are it's time to have resources under your own control it's time to get back to base level manufacturing which is mining and more sophisticated production um and you look at the car makers the car industry is a wreck it's a mess the us doesn't export if they lose their financial engineering ford gm they go bust you know it it it
• 42:00 - 42:30 you can't sustain it they've got pension pots too big you look at what the chinese are doing with the battery cars so everything i see is a huge downdraft you know my father was a glider pilot and you get into thermals and you get free lift and then there's downdrafts where you can be smashed into the the cliff face and we've got a nice big mountain here with helicopters putting fires out as well don't be get caught on the downdraft you could be the best pilot in the world you can be the best 747 pilot in the world if i hand over the cockpit to you when we're in a
• 42:30 - 43:00 45°ree dive into the side of that mountain with half a second to go it doesn't matter how good a pilot you are so my whole view to everyone watching this is recognize the environment think about your positioning you don't have to take the punch that's being thrown your way you can rather sit in the back row and watch the boxing match from behind you don't have to take on mike tyson and in terms of what's coming macroeconomically it's going to be a battering and it's western world particularly and the us is going to feel
• 43:00 - 43:30 it and if you just want to understand the british had was the sick man of europe for two decades and that was a friendly handover of power between the pound to the dollar this is going from a uniolar world of dollar heedgeimonyy to a multipolar world of antagonism and we are deloblobalizing that gift that gave us that low consumer expenditure that pushed the consumer culture and the throwaway society is being reigned back
• 43:30 - 44:00 we want to reshore manufacturing all the scale benefits that we got are now going to be coming back and going to be unwound at the same time as you're deleveraging how does that not turn out into an absolute brawl where the only thing that happens to you is you get beaten over the head with a pan and then get arrested for causing a fight later on i don't want to be in that party i'd rather go somewhere else and watch it as a movie from a safe seat and that's where i stand but there's if there's one thing central bankers fear then it's deflation and
• 44:00 - 44:30 that kind of unwinding that you're talking about there and i i completely see it as well i think it's it's absolutely right the analysis is right i think there's just a factor of that the there will be a fighting back and i think that that that's what they're going to try so at the end of it i'm not sure that they have that kind of understanding that they actually will not be able to win that fight because you're going to see that we are now at a completely different point than we were in 2008 where there was there was a an ability to create a free lunch i i think that that that's that's where i think the deflationary pressures is not going
• 44:30 - 45:00 to come out fully i think there will be a part of the deflationary period of that but then they there will be a fighting back and the fighting back will be more printing mhm and i think that is actually where i think the the stlflation is going to come from did you also mention key with more printing is who's going to buy the debt now that the cycle's turned that's why i say the credit card has been pulled the asset category is being devastated and it is the main driver by gold can i make one extra point sorry for intervening though is on the gold price what's driving it
• 45:00 - 45:30 higher talk to the gold retailers it's not the consumer they are wrecked it is as said by matthew central banks hedges billionaires big money nation states sovereign funds that's what's driving it it's the nations that are doing it we have erect consumer and it's on account of not wanting to hold who is buying the us debt today have a look at the numbers china is down even japan is down uk who
• 45:30 - 46:00 just sent them all their gold it's like the uk wants to be bankrupt the united kingdom is the grower cayman islands belgium and luxembourg if you don't think these are proxies for sustaining the final hour or two of uh a ponzi scheme in a state of collapse uh and and by the way and there's some guys that tweet oh look everyone asks who will buy the debt foreign holders are up of course it's up there's ever more debt coming there's 9 trillion in rollovers due this year on top of the excessive
• 46:00 - 46:30 spend there is no space to put all this stuff you can't have value if there's so much of it about to this this point we're already at that gettysburg waterlue stalingrad moment the war is not over but we know how it's going to end and i think the idea that the fed can fix this or a central banker can fix this with qe i don't think they no i don't i think i'm the idea that qe will work that's like saying that one more martini is going to make you feel better actually it's going to make you throw up and i think that's the real interesting reality we're hitting now is the old
• 46:30 - 47:00 tools aren't really working the same function even the the the the the man on the street is starting to figure that out for a lot of different reasons they're figuring that out and that's this fascination moment can come in two forms right um and and you're you're eloquent about this in the markets too and you guys track it momentum wise technical-wise i look at it more historical wise but it's all saying the same ending you know bob frell wrote about this it's the most ignored force in the markets is the power of mean reversion we are so far from the mean now of what a normal market and you can
• 47:00 - 47:30 get into the buffet indicators you can look at ballinger bands and kelner bands and you can look at rot and all the things you guys are eloquent and fluent in that i used to remember but we all can you know if it looks like it tastes like it smells like it it's a duck and this is a massively mean reverting timing that's going to be very hard the other thing that's very deflationary is raising rates to fight inflation which we can't ironically ever do and can i say one thing on top of your mean reversion before handing back to you the greater you extend above you don't
• 47:30 - 48:00 revert to the mean you overshoot to the underside ever more violently which is why i'm saying you're going to watch one of the worst downdrafts that even if you're the best pilot you're smashing exactly and that's and and so the idea of what's going to fix it next time won't be let's try a little more qe let's try a little more steroids let's try a little more lance armstrong let's try a little more dopamine the debt market falls to zero and the interest rate spikes you get a short absolute spike in the dollar um that crushes all the offshore uh dollar debt markets that you know the economic hitman nations
• 48:00 - 48:30 that have all borrowed in the dollar and it's contagion and we get our reset the next time how does that reset look to you guys how does that reset look to you what does that in the social mayhem and pure bedum grid downs and major distraction events would be my who's going to be the hero of the new brett and woods 2.0 so it won't be the us post world war ii multipolar it has to be multi-disfunctional it will be dysfunctional for a long long time but there will be numerous nations and they will probably be haggling for a leading role it won't be you know you
• 48:30 - 49:00 america was recognized last time as okay you're the big guy in the room now no it'll be there'll be a basket it'll be multi but it will be there will be two sides to it i think it'll be the the brick side to it and there will be the the western the western world side to it and there will be who was going to win there i mean and that's again i think you know back to sound money back to gold back to having some kind of support there maybe some kind of digital element to a to a uh a new global currency something that will you know also help
• 49:00 - 49:30 erase that kind of debt i i completely agree with you we are in that point with the with the debt in the debt cycle absolutely and uh and some will be deflated away some will be um yeah forgiven some will be bank you know be uh inflated away as well and i think the inflationary part of it also that they're going to see for an extended period that inflation go going to run higher i don't see hyperinflation i do see that you can have a period of stackflation that where you know all these things starts to come you know come out after you see the fed or whatever come back in try to save the
• 49:30 - 50:00 day again with the the same kind of tools and not really understanding that they're going to create another kind of um outcome this time and then you will see the the bad things in the societal uh in in society as well but that is the moment i i i think that is what i i fear the most about the whole thing here is that it needs some time for realization there and and what are the fallouts going to be of that before you get to that point how bad will the societal uh consequences going to be before you actually see that we need to sit down
• 50:00 - 50:30 they need to come together and realize we have to have you know sound money again and that's where it all starts because if they don't we will have a you know societal decline want to stay updated on the future of finance with exclusive content giveaways events and more scan the qr code or click the link in the description and leave your email address behind [Music] yeah i always compare to a bit the moment of the matrix when you have neo
• 50:30 - 51:00 that uh is walking on that street i'm not sure if you remember that scene and then there's protagonist now the protagonist starting to basically like his shoulder because the matrix feels that you're about to act against it and now the matrix could be maybe the dollar system right and now this dollar system is screaming right because um it's basically being disentangled from where it basically had its roots and all that but the big question and that's kind of like also what the bricks is
• 51:00 - 51:30 trying to answer but not always in a maybe good fashion maybe because there's maybe lots of intricacies and details about it is which will be the currency or currencies because the remn is pretty trapped in its own jurisdiction will it be the ruble it's kind of the same problem right the yen well it hasn't been doing well i don't think it's got to be one exactly the basket so but but uh uh so then the question is then how will the system look like and what will be needed to actually even
• 51:30 - 52:00 come to that step it's it's it's i can't imagine it'll be smooth and transparent and eloquent and cooperative in a john nash beautiful mind kind of way there was a great book that came out in 1911 by the president of cornell university this school was founded in 1865 after the us civil war and it was it was about this notion that what if we had a central bank like the french did in the 1780s the national assembly that printed millions of acons to get out of debt
• 52:00 - 52:30 what if america was ever that stupid and he showed how the french tried qe1 23 and four in the 1880s or 1780s and he showed that this led to temporary euphoria then permanent ruin which henryway later described in the exact same way he gave an historical example of something so absurd and then what did that lead to it led to extreme centralization the deluge napoleon control and a false savior but and and war and that was something he wrote in 1911 two years later the fed was created
• 52:30 - 53:00 and and then and then you journey ever since and fast forward a century later to where we are today and this is this thesis and it goes it does come back to how to invest because i have said without exception throughout history from ancient rome to 1789 to today there is no exception when a country's got its back against debt wall that leads to a financial crisis a currency crisis an inflation crisis and then centralization that's how we can slow drip into crypto tomorrow and stable coins and cbdc but it also has an effect on gold and it also has an effect on how things transition from the sublime ridiculous
• 53:00 - 53:30 how it becomes messy first napoleon made things clean but also very messy and there was mess before that what we're seeing now i think is more centralization hiding a sheep in wolf's clothing or a wolf in sheep's clothing excuse me with these new technologies these new solutions these new fantasies these new um you know digital highways and these new technologies are going to save us and these new uh tokenization of things which is just crap most of it and
• 53:30 - 54:00 yet it's definitely more transparent and more efficient and yet it has a lot to do with our privacy and our efficiency that goes back to what assets are yours where you have less counterparty risk more trust in your own control over that if your fed or your central bank won't go back your currency what can you do what other assets hard assets can you buy to protect yourself if your government won't how do you become semi autonomous within your own country code or zip code regardless of what the banks do or the politicians do or the parliaments do or god forbid your private adviser tells you to do it i
• 54:00 - 54:30 there's something kenny said there's something immoral about abandoning your own courage when you become informed about these cycles the history and the math and the signals again it doesn't mean gold's the only thing but they all lead to these kind of barbaric analog pet rock assets that hold their value better than paper money and that you know again i have clients from 90 countries they're not they're not tin foilheaded cooks we have very high minimums they're fairly sophisticated some of them are bankers and hedge fund managers can't give their names it's very ironic when a major banker from a
• 54:30 - 55:00 major city holds more than $5 million of his money in our vaults instead of at jp morgan or morgan stanley but again these are just all anecdotal examples of what it's going to be messy the fiat system is failing that's why gold's rising not because it's gotten shinier it's because paper money because of debt again that major ripple effect starts there everything ripples out from that people don't trust their currency they don't trust their government they don't trust their counterparties they're outside of their or within their country and they don't trust their money and so they're
• 55:00 - 55:30 repatriating to physical gold whether they're doing it from the comx from gld and slv which is now run by jp morgan another irony of ironies and they're doing that with their own physical gold it's not on a blockchain ledger it's just in a private vault somewhere yeah and that's uh that's also fascinating to see also like the way uh there was alo already the trend before this del globalization and this more localization of the economy which i think is also maybe interesting that we address and also with on top of that the layer of the trump factor who is basically slapping around over tariffs which one
• 55:30 - 56:00 could argue as a nothing burger because it's just basically his way of the art of the deal or to get basically what he wants um how do you see this how do you see this projection because you mentioned that inflationary periods are ahead of time i think we can all agree on that uh but how will the economy change and its dna globally how will world trade be affected by that as a result of tariffs u tariffs is one factor obviously that i would say propelled this but i'd like to address
• 56:00 - 56:30 the tariffs because i'm seeing a lot of headlines and i don't know if it's particularly leftwing media but the oh consumer is is nervous because of tariffs oh the consumer is not doing this because of tariffs and those are nonsense headlines this is a recent policy that he's put in i'm not coming in to bat for trump at all um in fact i think tariffs are going to be inflationary um inherently you're making and the lowest cost producer to your imported the goods that you need that you are importing more expensive so that government one of the least efficient
• 56:30 - 57:00 expenditures uh spenders of capital now has an extra cream scoop uh and they're going to take it and what if the chinese responded they're going to tariff american energy so if any energy that comes from america goes into the production as part of a production input it's going to be more expensive going in the chinese will take 10% so that product then gets manufactured using let's say some gas from houston or some oil from uh wherever um that component is going to have higher production
• 57:00 - 57:30 inputs and the government in china is taking an input it's actually a taxation of your own citizens a tariff um the goal though or supposedly the the the the noble use of tariffs was a counter to somebody was doing what was called dumping which is where they were stealing market share selling at a not for profofit basis and that was the only justifiable means for tariffs an equalizer china isn't dumping walmart has been fooled with goods they're making normal profits but if you if you're going to make them more expensive
• 57:30 - 58:00 um they're not going to squeeze their margins for you that just the tariff goes straight onto your consumer so it's actually a tax because the consumer will pay more at the store and the government has the flow and in the chinese sense the chinese government has a flow so the american consumer will have then been taxed by the chinese government and the american government and pay for that good with all these extra tariffs filtered in so you're going to see further stagflation their disposable income will go down further and you're going to get your second wave
• 58:00 - 58:30 inflationary effects as a result of this and at the same time the only noble thing you could say potentially comes out of that is if you make it so expensive uh for those chinese imported goods you might be able to get american workers to produce that same good at a similar price level or quality so you could reshore some manufacturing and i think that's a little bit about reshoring manufacturing i made the case for you should never lose all forms of a manufacturing base so there's a bit of
• 58:30 - 59:00 that and it's a tax take for a government that's running out of income it's important to remember and has to cut expenditure on account of the debt market's rejection of sorry you can't put that amount of money on your credit card anymore i i i align myself pretty much with what you're saying here i think there is a um i mean the primary isolated effect of a tariff is inflation obviously and i think that you will see then that that will bring upon a downward pressure on consumption because as you say prices
• 59:00 - 59:30 will go up there'll be things that we have to produce ourselves or us or wherever whoever it will be that'll have to produce themselves and they'll be at higher prices a higher cost and that will bring on a uh a lower demand simply so it by the end of the day whether it's higher prices or it's a you know lower value for the for the consumer you will see that that will be bring some you know bad things to the consumer and you will also if we learn from history we saw what happened in the 30s also we'll see that if we are heading into a recession also and you put this on i mean there can be good reasons why you
• 59:30 - 60:00 want to put tariffs on things that you you want to protect certain areas of your of your um of your economy of your of your industries but if you do it on a more broad scale basis that will put a lot of pressure on the on on the economy and and i think that can exacerbate the the kind of effects that you will already see from the deflationary uh bust that you can you can see we we saw that in the 30s we saw hoover coming out doing exactly the same uh putting it on i think it was sort of 20,000 products or something like that and uh and it actually created a lower income for the federal government by the end of the day
• 60:00 - 60:30 um so you know this about that it creates an immediate effect but it's not you know there is we live in a dynamic world and people will start to substitute these things away from you know okay then i can buy can't buy avocados from mexico i'll buy something else because the the american ones are just it's too expensive so we'll start eating i don't know what else so i i i think the the the long-term effects of this will be bad if we look at it in a general just you know just just put uh tariffs on because we want to get some income for the for the government i think that was going to backfire and
• 60:30 - 61:00 it's going to backfire on the consumers i agree with you there but obviously yes there there will be reasons why you can you can you know tariff certain industries and there will also be reasons why you should just outright block certain industries industries from especially a place like in the us from the tech industry and and not doing what had been done for so many years simply almost you know letting the chinese steal the industry so the technologies that they uh not just from the us but from the rest of the world i mean you had to the the the the policies there
• 61:00 - 61:30 are absolutely not um not acceptable so so i think there you know i understand that kind of the dynamics and um but i don't think tariff is the right way to do it and i think also as i try to say i also have a a deficit a trade deficit with my local grocery shop right i go there buy groceries but i do it because i think it's easier to go buy the the the eggs there and the and the milk there than having my own cow and having my own chickens and and producing it i'm just saying it's i mean i could do could do that but i'm using my time on actually doing what i think is the best
• 61:30 - 62:00 at earning some extra money there because i have to focus on that and then i go spend my money there will it create a deficit for me yes is it a problem no not as long as i got you know a decent income on what i do and that's where i think the us situation is that the dollar is so strong so why would you want to put yourself in a place where you are having the strongest currency in the world you can go buy cheap stuff out there and then you can actually you know produce it uh whatever you're good at
• 62:00 - 62:30 back home i know it's a theoretical thing but it's also why what you want to protect industries that may not have you know uh be the the capac the the ability to survive by themselves you know typically you you have tariffs to protect your manufacturing but we don't have manufacturing countries offshore that that's an irony so it looks more like a weaponization or a desperation than actual protective tariff and that's the great irony too i mean john deere i'm from the midwest those are the famous tractors for our for our farmers they're made in mexico many of them are made in
• 62:30 - 63:00 mexico our iphones are made in china the components that's a very big apple product so who are we really you know what's the real incentive here i i agree that the tariffs history does rhyme hoover mckin i mean mckinley tried it in the earlier century smoot holly that tariff act both of those senators lost their seat hoover didn't get reelected we lost on exports it was a failure now that doesn't mean this is but i think it will but is it what is it really about and i'm not trying to uh apologize for trump but i think the real motive on
• 63:00 - 63:30 these tariffs um is reshoring of jobs because who he's really punishing are the are the executives of the american sea suite who did offshore labor to central america and asia all right guys if you want those products to be sold in our walmarts you better move labor back and you're going to have to pay more i'm all in favor of that the problem is that's extremely expensive that's going to short term and it's short term because if you look at the ai development that we see right now a lot of these jobs that you're trying to maybe insource will you know be taken anyway so it's like doing globalization
• 63:30 - 64:00 which means globalization gave us this golden era under greenspan of incredibly low inflation and asset price hyperinflation we got a super pumped stock market because everything was cheap and everyone had investable now you that's the daytime the inverse is the night time you you have incredibly expensive relatively everyday goods and your hyper overvalued assets come way way down because there's not the same disposable to support those asset valuations that's your night for your
• 64:00 - 64:30 day in fact if i can add an extra element that might take the the discussion a little further the interesting thing is how do you profit from this and how do you trade it and i'm sitting here and i'm saying the military-industrial complex for me in america is a short and i've been a 20 almost 25 years but a 20 o i stood in the master investor in 20 bull sorry on the military-industrial complex you've seen loheed martin it's it's next to the mag 7 in how much they've gone up um i
• 64:30 - 65:00 even gave in europe bae which was uh an uk one i stood on a stage and gave that as a trade and someone in the back said i know people in bae it's a shambles it's run terribly and all of this i said it's not a comment on how well it's run it's about the wall of money that is being thrown at it uh it's not about their competence this is not a comp necessarily a competence company this is an industrywide that is having surveillance finance world prepared for us through the military-industrial
• 65:00 - 65:30 complex and is getting statism money an inefficient bureaucracy is giving money to a near similar inefficient bureaucracy that is the military-industrial complex if you go into a cycle where trump is now suddenly talking to russia and uh china and saying "hey we should spend half on what we do in the own military." why is he doing that because he understands the credit cards being pulled point number one point number two he spends way too much on defense much more so than china and russia do proportionately to their gdps and he knows he has to do it anyway
• 65:30 - 66:00 so he's trying to secure a deal that makes him look good for being a peace guy meanwhile it's only now that you can't spend that that you found your principles of peace it's pragmatism it's not that's what he was always about in 2016 it wasn't his message so you've got to look at hallebertton loheed martin ba we did a list of them and we seeing the technical verification also coming these guys are going to get right side and if you're china you're not going to start buying loheed martin product they have
• 66:00 - 66:30 their own champions they don't want some sleeper chip that's reporting in and can be switched off or overridden when it comes to such a sensitive product it's only allies that buy in loheed martin um or made stuff china's not going to be a supporter of it so if you think they're going to be bigger buyer or a bigger expendit spender in the future these companies can't be providers because they are nation state compromised inside that silo what happens to the military-industrial complex when america
• 66:30 - 67:00 goes through the right sizing process it can only go down and we've watched those same incompetence that i was being told by the guy at the back of the room now start working against them and they get the money withdrawn that they're no longer used to having you're talking about a right sizing of a a modly coddled industry that i'm going to be as happy as a clam to short um to the downside uh and there you're going to find the inefficiencies and i remind everybody of the f-35 fighter which is for 10 fight uh 10 planes 1.1 billion
• 67:00 - 67:30 and you get 9 hours of maintenance for every hour of flight you actually get out of this damn thing and you have super specialist and that's not even the aircraft going aircraft carrier going version of it um so when you see what's been sold and bled on and what the american taxpayer has paid for and you recognize that that party is ending for those people think of all the consultancies booze allen and all of them that uh that that deal with the american that you should be looking for
• 67:30 - 68:00 shorts uh in you have your gold as your perpetual long and you have other shorts oil the consumer is wrecked i'm i'm getting alpha today on being short oil uh we've got a gold long short oil it's a delta commodity neutral trade uh and it keeps paying so this is some of the stuff i'm hoping the audience watching this will be interested to hear there are things you can do to build alpha and wealth uh and we love talking about that aspect about it and um that's kind of i
• 68:00 - 68:30 i thought i'd just escalate the macros we were almost all in agreement broadly in where things are going how do people react and what should they do there's some ideas for them to play around with mhm and uh you also mentioned the the the so that's the military-industrial complex and it's also maybe tied to the us uh hegemony right that we see now trump wants to basically as you said cut cost make everything smaller the us army is pretty much 150 bases bases spread across 150 countries in the world and
• 68:30 - 69:00 that's very expensive just fuel to keep it afloat so obviously like now we see that trump wants to make the war in ukraine the the ukrainian russian war put to an end but in the meantime we've seen like just a tanker chinese tanker cut some to the communication cables near taiwan and we might actually smell flare okay there's something that might happen on the chinese front the chinese themselves have been trying to cope with quite a downside economy where they've
• 69:00 - 69:30 been putting the semi machine like on on high turns but hasn't created anything um hugh hendry which was supposed to by the way be here with us today but it was a 36-hour flight for him could not make it maybe next time he was telling me like i if i see something with his beautiful scottish accent it's going to be a deflationary shock coming from china what what do you think well i know henrik you've got a very strong deflation view you know um so i mean we'll start with you but i'll i'll give you my thoughts but well i i think you
• 69:30 - 70:00 know um whether it has something to do with with china and russia and the dragon bear the whole discussion there i'm not so so sure so sure i think it's actually has to more to do with the the whole yeah the explosion in valuations that we have seen over the last many years and what you know again mean reversion and all that and it will come back to ground it needs to um so i think that is the part that we'll see there uh so so talking about you know russia and and uh and china there um i i think they're sitting and waiting for what what is actually happening right now and
• 70:00 - 70:30 they are i mean they they love the kind of you know discussions we now have in the western western block right and that we are not we can't you know seem to be agreeing on everything right now so i think that uh and they are i think that there have been many meetings between you know putin and c and then it seems like they they were also you know potentially expecting something like this to develop that we will get into a situation where commodities again will be important maybe gold will be important and they there's something these two uh countries have they have
• 70:30 - 71:00 you know a lot of commodities and i think that can be in the next phase here actually very important and the brics countries in in general will be very important because if we get into a cycle here like what we were talking about an inflationary i i i see that we the whole we come to the next phase we come into an inflationary uh regime now in the world we can actually show that in the in the yields levels uh working with momentum um that you know this will actually be a winning strategy so if they continue i mean focusing on this and maybe even establish you know
• 71:00 - 71:30 whatever kind of trade networks around the world and whatever they they they they try to figure out while the western block really can't figure it out then i i think they they can gain some ground and uh and you will see then that there will be some i think politically geopolitically moves from some of these players here the dragon bear they're going to move in on the areas that where they have you know interest we know taiwan we know ukraine we know elsewhere in europe and i think that is that is the power play that is at stake right here that if we if we don't get this
• 71:30 - 72:00 right and we have a a deflationary bust and we see some kind of fallouts from that we we need to get together really quick and understand that it's a bigger thing than us versus europe or whatever it's going to be it's actually the the culture the way we've been living for so many years against something quite different that i want that i personally don't want to trade for i think the the the geopolitical speculation um is very difficult especially in a nuclear era about when you talk about
• 72:00 - 72:30 conflict and war and again going back to a simple example of hemiway who said when you get into a debt crisis when you have this kind of orgy of debt that's is very classic of every kind of empire democracy monarchy whatever you want to call it throughout history you get that temporary prosperity you get the permanent ruin of currency debasement and war well that was said in 1940s we're now in a nuclear era where clausowitz who said that war is an extension of politics by other means that's a little more difficult when
• 72:30 - 73:00 you've got nuclear warhead submarines and different types of technologies that i'm not an expert in but i think playing saber rattling with china and russia financially makes sense but doing that militarily is not really an option to me as a non-military expert the question though is um is that even an option you know we are at that latest stage empire we have a debt to gdp of 120% every mathematician from business school to grad school can tell you and this again goes back to david hume in the 1750s
• 73:00 - 73:30 reinhardt and rogoff today you cannot grow once you cross that rubicon of that mathematically there's nothing you can say or do politically left or right in front of mara largo or on a beach whatever you want to say whatever you want to wear you're not going to grow until you get that debt to gdp down and and part of our biggest debt part of our biggest expense is our military our entitlements and our interest on our debt so that's 140% of tax receipts that's just simple math we can speculate on war speculate on this and that we are
• 73:30 - 74:00 not going to grow and we can talk about the difference between our economy and the s&p and the nasdaq but as an economy we're not going to grow until we cut that debt to gdp down first and what do we have to cut are we going to cut how can we can we cut our interest rates can we cut can we stop issuing ius no can we cut our military and stay elected can we cut social security and stay popular who's going to make the decision that if we were in a family with our wives and one of us just lost a job and our kids are at harvard and one just wants to go
• 74:00 - 74:30 to you know wants to buy a new sports car and wants to take a vacation to miami beach we're say well we have to say no to that honey can't do that we got to we got to get more productivity i mean the kind of common sense things you do in a family when hits the fan politicians can't seem to do that they can't seem to get or stay elected by telling the truth that we got to be we've got to go through austerity ed doubts if you want to see if trump's really gonna help make america great we better hope for recession that means he's doing the right thing because we're going to have to have austerity like a family would we're going to have to face some pain and talk about honestly where
• 74:30 - 75:00 are we going to cut where are we going to solve this debt to gdp so that we can grow as an economy so that when our market does rebound after a mean reversion it's based on fundamentals as opposed to just dopamine from the fed agreed uh because another dopamine rush by the fed isn't going to be supported by the rest of the world anymore they're not going to want our diluted ius and our diluted dollar and you see it also in us treasuries right the chinese have been selling them off the even the japanese have been doing that russia already since 2014 our biggest buyers traditionally the markets are actually
• 75:00 - 75:30 saying out loud what no one wants to say in a way or like basically are correcting what the us government or in that case the very obvious proxies like cayman island the chinese have a same and saying you know um wait long enough on the banks of the river and your enemies will come washing by and the truth of the matter is china doesn't need and i'm not putting forward china i'm not cheering for china uh it's not my guy in this race i'm just saying they've got the patience and they're on the better side of the mathematics
• 75:30 - 76:00 russia is definitely on the better side of the mathematics after it debt uh after its debt write offs and america is the one now looking at the parisa glasnost uh experience um and they're going to get ever more frantic trying to do things and the others just have to step back and let it all play out because no matter what you do whether you turn left or turn right on this oil tanker it's too late you're already in the shallow water you're going to hit something the minute you change course you almost may as well leave it to go to
• 76:00 - 76:30 go straight and you hit it do you think there's risk of using war as a distraction to blame that tanker hitting the ground instead of blaming on your own there will be distractions i can see the distraction narratives playing out there might be a temptation to use the military while it's still big to try to get a better outcome um as part of the distraction uh aspect but at the moment he's talking peace with ukraine i fear for iran a little bit uh i have my own views about who's you know under whose influence trump might fall under before that and so i would be worried if i was
• 76:30 - 77:00 an iranian but uh if if they don't do anything now they're going to be a smaller military power and the last thing always was they could assert their dominance on account of military power but if you corrupt and you rot the financial you lose that in the end too and that's where we are and that's why this cycle is better and and henrik used the phrase of super cycle this is a macro ending super cycle and it's not just the 40-year from for high rates
• 77:00 - 77:30 debt cycle this is right back you know breton woods and i think this is the largest synchronized because what we've actually done is you know you had the the the great depression of the 30s but largely different nations were to a degree insulated to some element of this you now have a totally interlin worldwide synchronized collapse where there is no western nation led by a nation led by a nation is economically lipstick on a pig because let's think about this i'm curious what you guys
• 77:30 - 78:00 think let's just even assume a magic wand we have world peace from gaza to the east to the south china sea to to kiev that's gone world peace even between americans i mean uh democrats and republicans even even kumbaya love fest in dc where there's a big barbecue in the front of the white house lawn and that's also we don't even have a recession yeah fantastic and even our market never mean reverts again just kind of hovers along at an annualized you know jeremy seagull 8% a year who's going to buy our us treasuries the way we spend so take everything else out and
• 78:00 - 78:30 just look at this simple reality who's going to buy uncle sam's ius and if he doesn't if no one else does just by world peace and love in the world who wants an iou from an overindebed issuer well that's martin monetary's theory i mean they gave bernani a uh nobel prize for that so why are you even asking that question so exactly exactly so how do we get out of this we're not going to cut spending we're not going to quit spending more than we earn we're we're we're going to go to treasury auctions soon with trillions that have to be
• 78:30 - 79:00 rolled over and there's less buyers from china and japan at all so who's it going to be but but it is a situation like after the second world war i mean where where you know the monetary system was just in a complete mess and i think that's that's why the the the monetary reset at some point where but it needs to there needs to be a crisis for that you don't get them to sit down and say that because we live in this this kind of regime that we have now brings the crisis the actual recognition of the problem and the reaction is the final thing it's almost like a an old man who's got used to smoking 40 a day and
• 79:00 - 79:30 is suitably toxified but his system has got used to it and he's 87 93 whatever the hell it is and you show up and you take his away from him and you say "we're doing detox here's your green smoothie in uh in replacement of your cigarette." you're about to kill him actually because what happens with the cuts is just think about the military-industrial complex you start cutting they'll never do the full cut in first wing this will be five or six swings of the bat people are going to over time realize it it's how you
• 79:30 - 80:00 introduce poison into a thing you don't give the whole shot you drip feed it in what's going to end up happening who's going to employ soldiers who's going to employ all the the captain who flew an an f-35 um who's on a on the payment that he was probably getting who's going to employ all these people are going to flood in then you talk about other status uh jobs you talk about all the consultancies between the military industrial you have all of this uh skill base coming in what do they go do they
• 80:00 - 80:30 they aren't all coders and going to start writing you ai um and i'm sorry it's it's going to happen and then at the same time they all going to go on welfare just when you least need it so the minute you start doing the cuts you need to do you actually add to your welfare bill you make it worse because you're taking douff jobs out of the system when you take the transgender consultant and the person who teaches uh certain people how to put condoms on and all of these people on 60,000 years salary and all this cultural marxism all of those get washed out they go on
• 80:30 - 81:00 welfare they're not going to start a corporation a small business in a corporation and that that's going to lead to the contagion that's your smoker dying because you took his cigarettes away because his body had become systematically functional as a a a 20 cigarettes a day guy and now you've just freaked it out when it just had its cool little groove that it would found a way to run on and would have run on until he died uh you just knocked him over and that's why i can't see a way out of this um and it sounds doomer but actually
• 81:00 - 81:30 there's great opportunities to build wealth in it there's great opportunities to save your family members and friends by not riding the downdraft the break of the wave and getting dumped and having your head smashed into the coral don't do it um step back uh and i think that's such an important message but i don't hear it being put out um and i'd love to have criticism of my hypothesis but every time i stress test it it feels right to me the problem is that it's been said for so long so you have had jim richards
• 81:30 - 82:00 writing the book since i don't know how long about you know the end of you know and and it and it's it hasn't been happening so when you look at people and they say why why isn't it happening i mean i've said it told my my people are neat is what you're saying by the cry wolf multitudes cry wolf enough times and then you'll okay so and and that's why i think the most you know people will not realize that this is going to but the shoes are really dropping now that's the real difference but yeah but then again if you have a as i say blowoff top then they'll say well they didn't happen this time i mean if blowoff for me cannot last for 3 months so it's not like it's going to last for
• 82:00 - 82:30 years but you will still see that you know people will think well again doomsday doomsday and it's not coming uh so why what are we afraid of so i think we the crisis there needs to be something that is so recognizable to people that will say okay now we really see it before you actually will you know you get them to move because wind off his opium right now yeah yeah and that's happening and you've got this trump elon doggy is the first political recognition that you can't spend anymore
• 82:30 - 83:00 and that literally is taking the cigarettes away from the old man and the heroin from the the junkie without substitution he hangs himself in depression to conclude because you also have your own interview to record a few minutes so you'll have to decide as well like when you want to make a call out but we'll run off anyways and i think on that note that's also a very good bridge for the next session is about the gold revaluation thesis about when we listen to scott besson's words a few weeks ago saying that they will look at the books
• 83:00 - 83:30 of reevaluating the asset side of the united states which is pretty much just gold uh this the 7,000 tons that allegedly are in the about to be audited fort knox 8,000 tons or 8,000 thank you for that precision um that actually gives a bit of a of a of a pretaste of what actually comes next some speculate like vil middle which i i i i saw a few weeks ago was actually saying this is the beginning of the uh un invisible ink writing of the gold standard that
• 83:30 - 84:00 reemerges in this system so what are your thoughts on this and maybe just keep it short for everyone and then we as a gold buckets you think of re-evaluation i think desperate times require desperate measures we if you look at the $421 certificate value of gold if we if we have the 8,100 tons that's a it's 11 billion based on the $42 price if we went to market mark to market we're looking at 757 billion chicken feet still chicken feet against 37 trillion in public debt so again is that mean we're going to a gold we'll talk more
• 84:00 - 84:30 about this tomorrow i'm saying that is desperate too that's just that's just qe with gold it's just okay and that's kind of i understand that's not going to solve the problem even that even if we revalued gold to market then you could then you could say okay we had 757 billion that's just a few months of qe during the great financial crisis that's just 2020 in the first few quarters of unlimited qe that didn't really change the needle much so even that uh i don't think is going to solve the problem when we get to whether we'll have a gold back world reserve currency and that's a much more nuance question but i'm saying the
• 84:30 - 85:00 very fact that we're looking at auditing gold and revaluing gold shows how broke we are the very fact that we have a bitcoin stockpile is a proof of how broke we are the very fact that the comx is a revolving door of stanford for delivery get it out because the comx isn't even a physical market it's a credit market but now the counterparties want physical gold that shows how bad things are the very fact that jp morgan is running slv and gld after being fined for fixing that market shows how bad how bad things are so again these are all
• 85:00 - 85:30 desperate things there is no easy solution to 120% debt to gdp 8% deficit to gdp and a country that cannot stop spending beyond its means it is a it is a meth addict with debt and it cannot get fixed easily it is going to need some serious detox some serious tremors months and months of pain some real dietary restrictions and hopefully no fatal reactions but again it's not it's not gloom and doom it's math it's history we cannot avoid it to your point crywolf yeah we've been crying wolf but
• 85:30 - 86:00 the dollar's been losing against gold steadily since 1971 every year the dollar the gold up 44% year-over-year from february silver 48% are you not entertained what more do we have to do for you it's not being discussed it's not a gold bug case i was a risk asset guy i was stocks and bonds i was a total dot millionaire i mean i want to say millionaire yeah but i was a lottery ticket an idiot and that was easy but gold is even simpler and it's not gold bugging and i don't know why this is so hard and why it's so deliberately
• 86:00 - 86:30 misunderstood by the wall street industrial complex and the registered adisement industrial complex it's it's fascinating to me you're just a boomer that's what everybody will be saying right you have to understand it's bitcoin bitcoin and you're just a question because gold is an anti- fiat by definition also an anti- debt based instrument and the whole system that these people all live in and profit from is the debt based system yeah so you're talking about truth when people are living a lie they deliberately hate to see gold rise that's why they
• 86:30 - 87:00 deliberately misunderstand it and ignore it 100% and that's that's why it's being treated like that and there's no one who profits you see to to sell it you know it's not that insurance breaker is earning a commission check to sell you a fancy product with an etf and a policy and an endowment and it is there's no there's no gold board that markets it and runs ad billboards on the highway like you get buy your i drive in florida 7 years mortgage to pay off of a f-150
• 87:00 - 87:30 truck and you then still owe 40% balloon payments that that's what i see on the freeway i don't go hey you should be buying gold you know um that and you know so that's why um because it doesn't enrich the participants um in the in the game yeah so i would call it a session uh packed uh i think we talked about a lot of things i hope for the viewers as well that you had a lot of things that you could take away from this session thanks
• 87:30 - 88:00 a lot um we'll be recording uh tomorrow morning a session exclusively about more like asset based gold crypto commodities we your housing all we'll talk all about assets thanks a lot and uh thanks for watching and don't forget if you want to uh win one free gram of gold uh that is uh well putting you one step closer to uh away from fiat debasement just comment g gold in the comment section thanks for watching
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