Prof. Mohammad Marandi: IDF Defeated by Hezbollah Hands Down - Tensions in Syria Growing

Summary

In this insightful dialogue, Prof. Mohammad Marandi discusses the complex situation in the Middle East, focusing on the recent ceasefire between Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel. He elaborates on the strategic maneuvers in Syria and the potential implications of the U.S. political dynamics on regional conflicts. Prof. Marandi underscores Hezbollah's strategic victory over Israel, despite the severe humanitarian cost in Lebanon, and analyzes the geopolitical chess game involving key players like Iran, Russia, and the U.S. The conversation delves into the interconnectedness of global conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East, highlighting the growing challenges for Western powers.

Highlights

• Hezbollah managed to strategically weaken Israel's northern defenses, drawing their military focus away from Gaza. ⚔️
• The ceasefire in Lebanon has not been formally accepted by Hezbollah, keeping tensions high and uncertain. 🚦
• Iran's involvement in supporting resistance movements across the region underscores its critical role in Middle Eastern geopolitics. 🛡️
• The Syrian conflict remains a pivot for regional power dynamics, with Turkey playing a complex and contentious role. 🇹🇷
• Speculation around U.S. politics, particularly with Trump's potential policies, could redefine interactions in the region. 🇺🇸

Key Takeaways

• Hezbollah's tactical maneuvers led to a significant disruption of Israeli military plans, marking a strategic win despite high costs. 🎯
• The interplay of regional and international politics is crucial, with Iran and Russia potentially strengthening ties against Western influences. 🌐
• Turkey's involvement in Syria reflects a broader geopolitical strategy, complicating relationships with Russia and the West. 🧩
• The potential impact of U.S. political changes, especially with Trump's return, could reshape strategies in the Middle East. 🔄
• The Israeli regime faces internal and external pressures, impacting its military and political strategies. 🛡️

Overview

Prof. Mohammad Marandi offers a comprehensive analysis of the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape following the temporary ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. He explains that this ceasefire, while reducing immediate hostilities, has not been accepted by Hezbollah, maintaining a strategic stalemate with Israel. The conversation reveals Hezbollah's adept use of regional tensions to its advantage, even at significant cost.

Furthermore, Marandi explores the geopolitics involving Syria and Turkey, noting Turkey's role in supporting militant activities and influencing Syrian dynamics. This interconnection highlights a larger chessboard where alliances and enmities are tested, especially in light of Russia and Iran's growing cooperation.

Lastly, the discussion anticipates potential shifts with U.S. political changes, particularly with Trump possibly eyeing significant policy re-alignments. The implications for Middle Eastern diplomacy and conflict management are vast, as new strategies might emerge with global ripple effects.

Prof. Mohammad Marandi: IDF Defeated by Hezbollah Hands Down - Tensions in Syria Growing Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 hi everybody today is Thursday November 28th 2024 and Professor mirandi is here with us welcome back Professor thank you very much for inviting me again let's get started with this ceasefire between temporary ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel many people are asking right now why
• 00:30 - 01:00 they have decided to go after a ceasefire when we're having a difficult situation in Gaza and the situation in Gaza is not so what would be your response to that to this question well the resistance in Lebanon they began as we all know on October the 8th last year
• 01:00 - 01:30 uh shelling and striking border positions between Palestine and Lebanon in order to pull part of the Israeli uh military to the north and to prevent them from all going to Gaza because we all recall at that time the genocidal intent of the Israeli regime had become clear they were calling Palestinians amalec
• 01:30 - 02:00 uh they uh the minister of defense or minister of genocide uh said that they're going to cut off water medicine fuel electricity food everything from Gaza in other words they wanted to starve the population and the uh the president of the regime said that there are no in innocence in Gaza and thus condemning everyone to to
• 02:00 - 02:30 death and starvation so Hezbollah in order to prevent that from happening and to help the resistance in Gaza uh it began this conflict it was a limited conflict of course and it continued and it had huge impact uh the Israeli regime was very angry the it displaced their different estimates but uh probably somewhere between 80 to 150 ,000 people from uh Northern
• 02:30 - 03:00 Palestine and uh that made things very difficult for the regime then of course we had the assassinations the uh pager terror attack which also injured the Iranian Ambassador and uh we also had the assassination of Sayad Hassan nah and uh Mr
• 03:00 - 03:30 safine and uh then the the the onslaught the regime began an invasion of Lebanon which failed Israeli regime failed on all accounts however we have to keep into account that the price that Lebanon has paid over especially the last two months is very high Hezbollah from the very beginning kept the people of Lebanon out of this fight for over 11 months for almost a year uh they kept this as a
• 03:30 - 04:00 border conflict and as a result they gave more martys than they would have ordinarily because they had to keep their Fighters near the border giving the Israeli regime greater opportunity to hit Hezbollah uh Commandos and and soldiers and that was because Lebanon is a very complicated country uh there are different religions different sects uh
• 04:00 - 04:30 all these Western em Beirut is full of Western embassies that are constantly conspiring against the resistance you have lots of Western Nos and W Western institutions all conspiring against the resistance and you have militias or former militias that are still armed uh such as the Lebanese forces and others which um
• 04:30 - 05:00 uh always conspire against Hezbollah uh the head of the Lebanese forces and the Lebanese forces that the leaders itself were among the people who carry out carried out the Sabra and shatila Massacre killing 3,500 Palestinians and Lebanese Shia in 1982 when the Israeli regime invaded the country and captured Beirut They carried out this Massacre with the Israelis and these Mass murderers are allies of Western Ember
• 05:00 - 05:30 es so heah has to fight knowing that there's a bag a dagger back there and that they have to be careful not to be stabbed in the back so it's not like Gaza where at least in Gaza Hamas and its allies they have control of Gaza itself in Lebanon that's not the case they are both external players and internal players and so when the Israeli Invasion
• 05:30 - 06:00 began Hezbollah was in a very difficult position it senior commanders and and of course say Hassan was martyred they were martyred and uh the Israelis as in Gaza they were targeting civilians they were bombing cities carpet bombing cities towns Villages especially communities that are supporters of the resistance and those communities that were help helping the
• 06:00 - 06:30 refugees you know it's the Israelis seem to be looking for ways to carry out crimes in a new way they're being Innovative in their evilness it's unbelievable the sort of things that they they would hunt down uh Medics across Lebanon they'd be searching for Medics to to kill them and ambulance drivers uh not just you know bombing one if they happen to be there they they hunt for them across the country
• 06:30 - 07:00 so the people were under a great deal of pressure and also during these two months there was a a a major conspiracy they were conspiring against Hezbollah the Western embassies these NOS these institutions these uh militias uh they were working hard to undermine the resistance they failed fortunately but uh this this sort of pressure existed so
• 07:00 - 07:30 ultimately uh I think heah accepted uh well actually Hezbollah has not accepted the ceire Hezbollah has NE neither accepted or rejected the ceasefire but the a ceasefire has been accepted by the Lebanese side which effectively means things are as they were uh before the 8th of October last year now there's some small changes [Music]
• 07:30 - 08:00 but it's all manageable uh to the south of the uh Lani River Hezbollah never had arms before it there always was the Army and there was unifo hezbollah's presence to the south of the river was always underground and to the north just like it is now uh their presence was more uh open
• 08:00 - 08:30 so uh but even to the north of the river it's basically their key assets are all underground so the Israeli regime has gained absolutely nothing they've had some token changes in the agreements simply to say that we got something so that they could convince their people that uh they got something but um but we have to keep in mind uh so when it comes to Lebanon and the Israeli regime
• 08:30 - 09:00 it's a victory for Hezbollah hands down no doubt but despite the fact that they slaughtered civilians and that the hez also gave uh Martyrs but they won because the regime failed despite Western support despite the fact that you had American and German and British uh spies and ships and drones and planes uh working 24 hours a day the five eyes all you know everyone working with the Israel regime despite all that hean hands
• 09:00 - 09:30 down but obviously it's not ideal there are those who raised the question about the um uh the the the um the linking let's say of the battle in Lebanon and Gaza there are couple of things that can be said one is that Hezbollah has not accepted the ceasefire as I said it is NE e accepted or
• 09:30 - 10:00 rejected it it's NE done either why is that significant because the Israeli regime will have to keep a very significant number of troops on the border and especially during the next couple of months but even afterwards because Hezbollah has not taken a stance and there's always a chance that the ceasefire will collapse or it won't be extended and as we speak Hezbollah is preparing
• 10:00 - 10:30 it is rearming itself it's building UT tunnels it's working very swiftly to uh make up for any shortcomings it had and to meet the needs of the this type of warfare that they experienced over the last couple of months and the Israeli regime knows that so they're going to have to keep large amounts of uh their forces in the North in addition to that the Israeli
• 10:30 - 11:00 regime uh and uh heah both of them U are uh constantly going to be uh cons you know looking to the sky because within uh I think the next during Biden's presidency and this is my own interpretation this is my analysis it's not based on evidence but the Iranian operation against Israel
• 11:00 - 11:30 will be carried out Iran will not wait for a new president it this genocide and these attacks were carried out during uh the Biden years the attack on on Iran the attacks on Iran the violation of Iranian sovereignty were carried out during the Biden presidency so my belief is that the Iranian strike will be soon and it will be very significant it will be much more significant than the
• 11:30 - 12:00 previous strike and I think the impact of it will have it will be greater than uh the battles that we've seen so far and uh also uh I think in addition to to that is the fact that um the Israeli regime uh I in again in my opinion will still be under well not
• 12:00 - 12:30 in my opinion it will still be directly in conflict with the other members of the axis not just Iran which will carry out the U uh the operation against the Israeli regime but also the resistance in Iraq and the resistance in Yemen in other words the gates to the Red Sea will remain closed and drone and missile strikes from Yemen and Iraq will continue perhaps they will even increase
• 12:30 - 13:00 but we'll have to see so this is something that the uh regime will have to take into uh consideration during the coming weeks uh if they want to intensify their attacks on Gaza and I Al should also add that I have no doubt that the Iranians will continue to supply the resistance in Gaza in any way or form possible and that is what they are doing uh they have their ways and I
• 13:00 - 13:30 don't know how it's done but they have they continue to support Hamas Islamic Jihad and their allies uh wherever they may be You' mentioned the way that Hezbollah and Iranians and the people on the part of gazans are thinking of this ceasefire and how about the other part the Israelis why have they decided to go with a ceasefire
• 13:30 - 14:00 what's the situation for them how do you find their current state of their army their political parties their their political attitude toward it Lebanon I think there are number a number of issues here one is I think that the that Biden is putting pressure on the Israeli regime uh although I don't think everyone would agree with that and I do think that Biden is angry
• 14:00 - 14:30 uh with Netanyahu and so is much of the deep State uh and that deepens state that deep state in the United States includ includes many Zionist uh I think they're angry because they Netanyahu was a reason for their defeat in the presidential election and in Congress and in the Senate uh to what degree did it have an impact on their defeat that is I think
• 14:30 - 15:00 somewhat subjective there are ways to to to figure that out to a degree but uh what can be said is that it was a significant reason for their defeat there are other reasons but that this was one and so I think some of them wanted to to uh to punish him I think they they they would like to see him fall they would like to see the regime preserve but I think there are many people who would like to see him fall and Netanyahu is under a lot of
• 15:00 - 15:30 criticism because the channel 13 poll in Israel which I I tweeted uh in that poll 61% of those polls believed that Israelis didn't win only 26% believe that they won that's a that's very significant and Netanyahu has been attacked from people across the board very severely so it's it's hurt Netanyahu and that's why think that this
• 15:30 - 16:00 may have something to do with it but also the regime is overextended it's the the the arm the the military is very tired they're overextended true the Americans are covering all their costs uh they're um giving them whatever uh needs they have whether you know whether it's ammunition or weapons or Aid or loans or uh whether it's political cover I mean even
• 16:00 - 16:30 after the arrest warrants were issued the ICC warrants no one has been sanctioned no one has stopped supplying Israel the West is carrying up business as usual and Netanyahu is carrying out a genocide not on his own it's you know the whole the the political apparatus it's the military and the West continues to work with him the military and the
• 16:30 - 17:00 political apparatus so but despite all that uh the the regime is exhausted people are exhausted the economy has collapsed Israel is hated across the world uh it's image has been tarnished and and Hezbollah has done an extraordinary job on the battlefield after two months the Israelis really got nowhere and the deeper they would go in the more dangerous it became for them because what h hezbollah's biggest
• 17:00 - 17:30 strength would be to would be to constantly Ambush the Israeli soldiers once they're in deep inside Lebanon that is what all these networks of tunnels are for the Israelis never really got that far to get the real punishment so they're exhausted they were humiliated on the battlefield ordinary Israelis don't know this because uh they are fed regime propaganda and Western media uh simply
• 17:30 - 18:00 repeats Israeli propaganda uh I was speaking to a very wellknown journalist just yesterday a western journalist who Jewish but critical of Israel um someone who you would know and he was telling me that um in in in London in Washington everyone believes the narrative that the Israelis destroyed Iran's air defenses and destroyed Iran's missile defense
• 18:00 - 18:30 capabilities and that Iran really is is completely vulnerable now and that we should go in and strike and take care of Iran despite the fact that the air assault was a failure anyone who you know studies the situation or's been in Iran or just a witness in tan itself would recognize that their main objective was part ofin and nothing happened but uh in the West they believe the propaganda and of course Israelis
• 18:30 - 19:00 believe their own propaganda even though they're giving casualties and and uh life is getting difficult but at least for now they're still under the influence but the Armed Forces is exhausted and people across the world were watching the Israelis fail you know those countries that would purchase Israeli weapons those those people in the region who who thought that is the Israeli regime was invincible and of course the Israelis
• 19:00 - 19:30 would bomb apartment blocks Slaughter ordinary families and that would outrage people create outrage across the world just like in Gaza but then they'd see them be defeated on the battlefield and they would see them still stuck on the border and that was humiliating for the regime and the less the more damaged their image becomes uh the more vulnerable the regime becomes because people across the region then start asking questions people in Turkey say Mr
• 19:30 - 20:00 erdogan why are you not doing anything this is not a regime that's as strong as you thought or that we thought or you know why does Abdullah King Abdullah of Jordan do nothing when the re the regime is uh failing in Lebanon and so on so it it uh it creates uh a lot of damage for the regime and I think they needed this this ceasefire so in sense
• 20:00 - 20:30 Hezbollah because of the complexities of Lebanon they remain silent right now again they haven't accepted or rejected the ceasefire but the Israelis did need it because of their own problems do you think that right after this when when they were talking in Israel about the ceasefire with Lebanon netn was something different that they're they
• 20:30 - 21:00 want to focus on Iran and how we can interpret the way that he's talking right now about Iran is that related to what's going on right now in Syria or it's something beyond that well that is a an important Point um it is very interesting that a major attack has been carried out in Syria and obviously there is coordination between erdogan and Netanyahu because this
• 21:00 - 21:30 attack is in interest of Netanyahu to weaken Syria to weaken the bridge for the axis of resistance and uh erdogan has shown that he is no enemy of Netanyahu he has refused to Halt the uh Baku Baku oil from going to Israel uh those who say it's the oil of
• 21:30 - 22:00 azaran he has more than enough influence over Alf to make him stop there's no doubt about that and um and after Netanyahu was uh declared to be a war criminal carrying out crimes against humanity by the IC he had that excuse to Halt the flow of oil but he refused to do so trade continues despite uh claims otherwise
• 22:00 - 22:30 there's very strong evidence of that and uh the political relationship exists so the timing of the uh the the terrorists the these Terror groups in it live the to restart this dirty war against Syria is uh is very significant it's very important so that is a part of it I think that uh the the Israelis want to
• 22:30 - 23:00 weaken Syria so that if there is conflict again in uh Lebanon that it would be more difficult for the resistance and also Syria is supporting the Palestinians in the West Bank that would make it all the more difficult for them as well there's no doubt that that's true with regards to a direct attack between Israel and Iran Hezbollah really doesn't
• 23:00 - 23:30 play a role because these would be air strikes and missile strikes that Iran would carry out with the Israeli regime would carry out and that has nothing to do with what is going on in what was going on on the border between pales sign in Lebanon so I think that this is quite probable it is quite probable that what is going on in Syria is linked to what Netanyahu was saying I think what's going on in Syria is so important and significant because
• 23:30 - 24:00 you look at these people who are we we call it je je no something like this and that's right and the way that you see the people these are not syrians most of them coming from we we've learn I saw a video that they were talking in tajic in in Persian and these are the same people if you're remember the that terrorist attack in
• 24:00 - 24:30 crocus Town Hall in Russia they were TS and they did that terrorist attack these are people who are who have been used by they said in those day they said it was Isis K and right now in EDB in Aleppo and they're doing the same thing these are not syrians they have syrians in their group but other nationalities as well and it's not a coincidence right
• 24:30 - 25:00 after in the day that they have announced this a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and we're having a new conflict a new tension coming up in Syria how do you see because right now I think what's happening between Iran and Russia is so important in terms of what's going on in Syria in terms of what's happening right now in Syria do you think that Iran and Russia would cooperate even
• 25:00 - 25:30 closer with what considering what's going on there um you are absolutely correct this is a multinational terrorist organization or series of terrorist organizations you have which was je you have a coalition of different groups large numbers of Chinese Nationals large numbers of people from Central Asia including the tajiks that you were speaking about large numbers of uh people from uh countries u in North
• 25:30 - 26:00 Africa and uh and and Asia in general and these are the people that Mr ardogan has been supporting for um 12 13 years now the rise of alq or alqaeda in Syria was uh beginning of the dirty war that the Americans went NATO and erdogan and oil and gas rich
• 26:00 - 26:30 countries in the Persian Gulf and Jordan and Israel were carried out they began uh it in 2011 and it reached uh its height in after 2013 where they brought in tens of thousands of foreign Fighters uh they were funded and they were their travel to Syria was facilitated by turkey and Jordan but turkey mostly many of the came from Europe as well and Western intelligence
• 26:30 - 27:00 agencies let them go uh and the same thing happened by the way in Libya um you know in 2011 but in Syria it was a very long-term project so these people have been uh some of them have been in Syria for well over a decade now and uh Mogan has they these different groups often clash with each other they kill each other they fight in itl but it's clear that Mr arogan has organized them
• 27:00 - 27:30 and now they've carried out this major assault and the timing is extraordinary without a doubt it will uh anger the Russians because the area which they attacked was uh was controlled by the Syrian Army and it was also a place where Russian forces were also based and a number of Russians apparently have been murdered uh the Iranian supported groups or the Iranians they are not in that region but I think
• 27:30 - 28:00 Hezbollah is going to send some of its troops there uh from what I've heard and uh probably others will to there will be reinforcements right now the Russians are heavily bombing uh those areas and so are the syrians uh but yes I think it will be another reason for the Russians and Iranians to work more closely with with each other and I think it further exposes um the the the true nature of
• 28:00 - 28:30 the dirty war in Syria because in the during the previous years there was a lot of misinformation and disinformation about Syria and uh most people were very hostile Ordinary People very hostile towards Syria because they didn't see the nature of the the Dirty War the Western media was never telling the truth if someone said something about it on in Western media they would be uh no longer invited uh I remember uh Professor saaks I think once went on
• 28:30 - 29:00 MSNBC and explained that this is a dirty war and but these were very rare occasions when people would come and tell the truth in 20134 uh and of course the media in our part of the world the Arabic media is controlled by these dictatorships and they were uh you know promoting sectarian uh language and sectarianism in order to undermine the Syrian government because the Syrian government was the only government that was
• 29:00 - 29:30 resisting Israel all of these regimes were moving closer to Israel turkey had normalized with Israel and uh so so the media was very hostile towards the Syrian government all of the lies about chemical weapons they were universally accepted in the media but what happened over the last year has exposed everything unless people are you know hellbent on
• 29:30 - 30:00 preserving their old views everyone sees that those people who carried out the Dirty War in s are the ones who are supporting Israel and they are the ones who are unwilling to do anything against the Israeli regime and uh whereas the syrians are supporting the resistance whether in Palestine or in Lebanon and this attack I think reinforces that the timing is stunning literally hours after
• 30:00 - 30:30 the battle begins or ends in Lebanon or at least we have a ceasefire or at least a cessation of hostilities because again Hezbollah has not accepted anything at the moment then then we have this huge battle it's obvious that Mr erdogan and whoever's helping him uh in the region that they've been preparing for a very long time to carry out this major assault what are the main differences between
• 30:30 - 31:00 Bashar alassad and erdogan why they couldn't achieve any sort of agreement so far well first of all erdogan is a part of NATO and he's kept turkey in NATO and he has no intention of leaving the Western Camp he speaks about uh bricks and uh maybe yeah and also the Shanghai cooperation organization and you know independent policies but he hasn't really moved moved in that direction his support for Palestine is
• 31:00 - 31:30 basically giving some Palestinian scholarships uh and letting them study in Turkish universities and to allow some of the uh Hamas officials to stay in their country which benefits him more than it benefits them because this is basically what the West also does they they they they give scholarships they use that soft power to strengthen their their hand they they create a good environment for people but when Hamas
• 31:30 - 32:00 needs their help in Gaza you know he's still selling the oil and doing business and preserving ties in erdogan has Ambitions over Syria you know Syria and much of the region used to be a part of the Ottoman Empire and the ottoman sphere of influence and erdogan would like to see a Revival of that and his allies in Syria uh were a tool for that and erdogan did expect
• 32:00 - 32:30 that Syria would collapse with all the foreign Fighters that he brought in and all the weapons that he was sending in through countries with a with a funding from the Persian Gulf region with NATO support he expected to win and and he failed and now he he has a problem on the one hand this is has caused a burden because there are many refugees also these extremists are dangerous they're dangerous for turkey uh in Istanbul they have a presence and
• 32:30 - 33:00 my Turkish friends always always express concern about these groups and what they could possibly do inside turkey or tur and uh but also so he he he has a problem on the one hand he can't get rid of them because if he does it could it'll cause trouble at home and on the other hand um they are they can be a useful tool for him to gain concessions from the Syrian government because Sy
• 33:00 - 33:30 the Syrian government wants turkey to withdraw uh its troops in order to normalize which is a a very reasonable uh condition uh Mr arogan wants to normalize without withdrawing his troops and without withdrawing those Terror organizations that he supports so uh while turkey needs to have normalization um it want it's erdogan is imposing conditions that are simply
• 33:30 - 34:00 unacceptable for Syria and by carrying out this assault he hopes to put pressure on the Syrian government so that it would uh change its terms for negotiations and on the other hand Israelis have their own reasons to do this so their interests coincide with one another and of course other countries in the region that have hisor have have been half supported these extremists have their their their own
• 34:00 - 34:30 reasons as well the very fact that the axis of resistance has succeeded so far despite all the genocide has hurt these regimes in the region that are pro Western among their own people and in the eyes of the regional re in the eyes of regional public opinion and in the eyes of people across the world who are opposed to genocide so they would like to see Syria undermined and H and punished for the role that it
• 34:30 - 35:00 played which caused them all to look very bad I think one of the main question right now would be why now why are they trying to attack Syria right now and we have to come back to the conflict in the southern Lebanon and the way that the Syrian government was helping lebanes people and Hezbollah it seems that in the eyes of Israelis as long as the Syrian government is helping Hezbollah they're not capable of just destroying
• 35:00 - 35:30 or damaging or making some sort of defeat and inflicting some sort of defeat on Hezbollah that's why it seems to me that right after this is where they're going after the government in Syria and it's so unbelievable and how as you mentioned erdogan just talking he's not happy with the situation in Lebanon in Gaza but at the end of the
• 35:30 - 36:00 day what he's doing right now is in favor of Israel because he knows how important Syria is for heel and it's not just Lebanon the Israeli regime wants to Annex the the occupied West Bank and while King Abdullah Jordan like erdogan is cooperating very closely with Israeli regime um Syria is
• 36:00 - 36:30 helping the occupied West Bank despite efforts at least through Syria I should say uh the Palestinians in the West Bank are receiving support despite the efforts of the Jordanian regime to be uh Israel's Border guard and so if the regime wants to Annex the West Bank and Carry Out major
• 36:30 - 37:00 assaults they would want to see Palestinians in the West Bank in a much weaker position so that I think is also true Mr erdogan just as he in the north has been basically helping the Israeli regime he hasn't send sent a single bullet to Gaza nor to Lebanon but he is arming these terrorists to carry out assaults in Syria with the most advanced technology
• 37:00 - 37:30 but in a sense the same is happening in Jordan Jordan when the Israelis want to bomb Iran they uh they facilitate their uh air campaign they allow the Americans to use their airspace they allow the British to use their air space but also and when the Iranians want to strike back they facilitate the Western uh governments in their defense of the Israeli regime but also a lot of the Israeli air strikes on Syria go through Le go through Jordan
• 37:30 - 38:00 they fly through Jordan and then go over the area occupied by the Americans and then they go towards aleo the place which is under attack a lot of the air strikes that the Israeli regime carries out against Syria and are very far from the border area they are near Aleppo and uh and now we know and now we see that the the attacks being carried out by m Mr
• 38:00 - 38:30 erdogan's groups and militias are in are towards Leo yeah and how do you see the role of Russia right now in terms of the way because they have some sort of relationship and different relationship because it's it's it's somehow strange between Russia and Turkey because the way that turkey was helping Ukraine during this conflict in Ukraine and Russia tried to keep the relationship
• 38:30 - 39:00 between the two countries but right now in Syria they're against each other they're literally against each other and do you find do you see any sort of political movement on the part of Russia to convince erdogan and his party and his people to just not attacking the way that they're trying to do it right now we we know how the timeing is important right now
• 39:00 - 39:30 and and everything it seems it the way that erdogan is playing as you mentioned is in favor of Israel but how Russia can play a significant role in your opinion I think this is going to definitely hurt the relationship because because Russian soldiers have been killed and they've been humiliated online and I think they've also taken prisoners although I haven't seen the
• 39:30 - 40:00 footage myself so uh this is Mr responsibility these militia groups these and the others all of these groups can only get their logistical support through turkey because there you know to the southeast and West is Syria and Syrian forces everything comes from Turkey so turkey military the Turkish intelligence they do
• 40:00 - 40:30 everything and so this is a Turkish government issue this is Mr erdogan's little army that's fighting in Syria so they can't escape responsibility but also the footage that has come out including footage of Chinese Nationals Central Asian CH Nationals these are not going to help turkey because because people in these countries are going to to look and say Mr erdogan
• 40:30 - 41:00 is creating extremism with our Nationals with our Nationals and these people can come back home to our country to create death and destruction so across Central Asia governments will be concerned the Chinese government will be concerned the Russian government not just because of the murder of Russian soldiers but because of the possibility of ter attacks being carried out in Russia by these people they are
• 41:00 - 41:30 concerned one of the problems that Mr erdogan has morality aside uh which he doesn't seem to have uh any he doesn't seem to have any moral compass but many people used to praise him and say that eron plays it very smart he he he tilts to the east he tilts to the West one day he's with the Americans and the next day he's with the Russians and he does a deal with the Iranians and he's with his Isis but in the long run this creates
• 41:30 - 42:00 distrust no one is going to trust you one reason why the axis of resistance is so effective is because they trust each other Iran will never forsake Hamas Iran will never forsake Anar Iran will never forsake hasah or Islamic Jihad or the hashid Iran is Will help them under you know all different cons uh situations
• 42:00 - 42:30 Iran is arming them as we speak I say this of course as a person who doesn't have any confidential information but it's clear so uh and that is a huge burden for Iran Iran will not back down Iran will not sacrifice them uh and um and this coming strike against the Israeli regime although it will be a retaliation for Israeli aggression but it will be to help the Palestinians it will be to help the resistance uh and it it is costly for Iran so one
• 42:30 - 43:00 reason why the access of resistance is so strong is because they trust each other is because they have faith in each other they won't they but no one is going to trust Mr ardogan Russia will never trust him Iran cannot trust him Syria cannot trust him the Europeans cannot trust him no one can trust him and that I think is very hurtful for turkey and I think that uh while he was an effective leader during his first decade in power after that I think
• 43:00 - 43:30 things have changed in the sit and for turkey and uh not just economically but uh socially and also for the image of turkey because of Mr ardogan ordinary Turks are very supportive of the Palestinian cause very supportive from all political Persuasions but uh their government does not perfect their sentiments as we talk we've learned that
• 43:30 - 44:00 an Egyptian delegation arrives in Israel today to talk about the Ceasar in Gaza and how do you see the possibility of having a cisar and Gaza and what would that mean because as you mentioned the situation with the West Bank in with the northern part of Gaza is critical right now because we know that the Israeli government wants Annex these two parts and how do you see the move on the
• 44:00 - 44:30 part of the Egyptian government and are they connected with Hamas or they're doing it on them because on the basis of their policy I I don't know uh at all if they are in contact with Hamas at the moment but I did forget to mention something which was very important and uh uh and that is that uh Trump is coming to power
• 44:30 - 45:00 and Trump has already said as we all know that he told Netanyahu or it has been said you know that has been said that he has told Netanyahu to end this uh so Netanyahu I think is in my opinion again I think that U the outgoing uh Biden regime is probably not happy with him and would like to see
• 45:00 - 45:30 Netanyahu hurt and the incoming uh Trump regime they want to see this problem off their plate they don't want to see it the problem in in front of them when they come to power so that I think does put pressure on Netanyahu to accept some sort of ceasefire I have no idea if that will happen uh Hamas uh they are are continuing to uh fight against the
• 45:30 - 46:00 Israeli regime in uh in Gaza so is the Islamic Jihad the Israeli regime constantly attacks the West Bank and kills people there something that the Western media never talks about but uh in the West Bank Islamic Jihad in Hamas I think it's fair to I think that Islamic Jihad has a stronger presence in the West Bank than it does in Gaza but these these groups as well as other groups they are all um uh they all have
• 46:00 - 46:30 they're all power they're they're very effective and Powerful so the Israelis are tired uh they're isolated they're despised uh and uh they're also Under Pressure to end this for I think Biden would like to see Netanyahu I think I I think his people at least would like to see Netanyahu humiliated uh and to a degree not not Israel but him uh and Trump just wants
• 46:30 - 47:00 uh not to have this problem and it seems that the conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East are connected much more than we have expected to be because we see the role of Russia and in the Middle East and the way that they're talking about it in Ukraine but how do you see even on the Russian part we had some sort of Hope with the Trump
• 47:00 - 47:30 Administration to make some sort of changes to make some sort of new political movements toward Russia maybe closer to Russia right now with the new appointments with new people coming to the Trump Administration it's every time we hear someone new is coming to the administration is getting worse it's not getting better and and here comes the question are Iran and Russia getting to the point
• 47:30 - 48:00 that they they're just giving up on the United States and their policy because they've been betrayed by the United States and their policy makers so many I think yeah I think it's very fair to say that Iranians and Russians are skeptical highly skeptical to say the least and I I think there is a a strong link between what is going on in Ukraine and what is going on in Palestine in Lebanon and in West Asia in general and
• 48:00 - 48:30 I think the more the West escalates the closer the relationship becomes between uh the Russian government and those forces in West Asia that are opposed to the United States and the same is true with China as well I think I think this it causes them to tilt further away from the west and to support uh non-western actors because uh
• 48:30 - 49:00 they see the United States is becoming increasingly aggressive and it's dangerous for them a weak Iran is not good for China a weak Russia is not good for China a weak a weak Russia is not good for Iran and a weak weak Iran is not good for Russia so I think that these are all important elements that are taken into account there are for there are THB reports that for example the Russians are giving weapons to Yemen I I don't know if that's really true uh
• 49:00 - 49:30 but I I I think that the Russians would probably be um helping Iran more Iran helps Russia more the the the Iranian and Russian military military uh cooperation has expanded dramatically over the past few years and uh their political cooperation that the Americans uh the more therefore that they escalate and the more the Europeans escalate the greater the incentiv is for the Russians to get to retaliate their retaliation can come in the form of
• 49:30 - 50:00 hypersonic missiles but it can also come in the form of Greater cooperation with the axis of resistance and and the Islamic Republic of Iran uh where they could hurt the Americans and their allies in a different way so in general uh there is it's it's very uh the link is very strong and I think that although you cannot really be 100% sure about what is going to happen in in the United States some would some say that Trump is
• 50:00 - 50:30 appointing these uh these Mad Men uh in order to be the bad cop and then Trump would be the good cop it doesn't sound like a reasonable way to do diplomacy but you know that is a theory but I think the the skepticism is is enormous and uh these people are going have a very negative influence and they're going to create
• 50:30 - 51:00 mistrust and so um you know Russia is not going to after all the gains that it has made especially in recent months they're not going to relinquish those gains and G give up the momentum because of Donald Trump they've made too many sacrifices and uh they have expectations and therefore the the Gap that exists between the United States and Russia now or under Trump is going to be enormous if Trump
• 51:00 - 51:30 capitulates or if Trump gives what the Russians want and demand then he will be seen as a traitor by his opponents and his opponents hate him and even in our region I imagine that many of those people who are silent over the Holocaust in Gaza and the genocidal attacks in Lebanon because they wanted Biden or Harris to come into power they would like to hammer Trump with genocide and and and even though they most of them
• 51:30 - 52:00 you know you know even though in the Democratic party uh the leites fully support the Israeli regime but the the the ordinary people they are very critical of the regime so I'm sure that many people who are quiet until now they will start going to the streets and protesting life you know Trump cannot concede too much in in in Ukraine without being humiliated at
• 52:00 - 52:30 home by his enemies and they hate him even though he won big but I think the hatred for him is probably even greater than in 2016 and 2020 from what I'm see and in our region also Trump um if he escalates too much alongside the Israelis the uh opposition at home I think will become very difficult for him to manage especially since he said that that you know he he's against the wars
• 52:30 - 53:00 and of course he's a Serial liar there's no doubt about that but it does make it all the more difficult for him because he said look I want to make America great again and then he starts off with escalation in in Palestine or with Iran or with Russia uh I think it's going to hurt him especially with the US economy doing so poorly and according to many headache towards a a very major crisis so that the link is very strong that the link is there between the events in
• 53:00 - 53:30 Europe and in West Asia that has caused a a strengthening of ties between Iran and Russia and I think the events in Syria are only going to make it uh stronger and the the the foolishness of killing Russian soldiers uh in the area between uh edli and uh Aleppo uh I think is uh only going to complicate matters further and uh push
• 53:30 - 54:00 Iran and Russia towards even further cooperation on this particular front as well as you know the Russian army has used a new Hypersonic missile called oresnik in Ukraine and which many people that I've talked with they're believing that it's a game Cher in terms of military advancement before that we had Iranian officials before before all of these happening one of the Iranian officials
• 54:00 - 54:30 said that we don't need nuclear bombs we have something much more powerful and many people are asking in the west that what does it mean and what's your interpretation of this the this statement on the part of Iranian officials well I don't know uh any military secrets in this country but there are a few things that I can say and it's information that you know as
• 54:30 - 55:00 well as I first of all uh we should wait for the Iranian strike on Israel and I think we'll better understand how powerful Iran's missile capabilities are and also Iran's defense capabilities which have shown themselves to be pretty impressive when the Israeli regime tried to strike Iran but that's another issue so that's something that we will be seeing soon but I think the most
• 55:00 - 55:30 important thing that in the west that they should consider or the two things that they should always keep in mind is a if there's any attack on Iran's nuclear program Iran's nuclear posture will change or if there's some sort of threat to Iran's existence Iran's nuclear posture will change that has been said repeatedly by Dr Hari who is uh the leader's U foreign policy adviser and obviously ly he since he said it repeatedly over the last year year and a
• 55:30 - 56:00 half uh that means he has the authority to say that it's not something that he said and it was a mistake or he retracted or he didn't repeat second is that Iran is a nuclear threshold State its nuclear program is peaceful has always been peaceful there's NE no real evidence that Iran even before uh even two decades ago was really pursuing the nuclear weapon there's no evidence
• 56:00 - 56:30 that but uh but Iran is a nuclear threshold State and it's one of the test 10 most developed countries in the world when it comes to nuclear technology Iran's missile technology is clear for everyone to see and we will see more of it in shortly so they should put two and two together I remember I was on Al jazer once very years ago when Iran said that it's going to um enrich uranium at
• 56:30 - 57:00 20% and I was on with a western nuclear scientist and he he started explaining how it would take months for Iran to do this and I know knowing very little about the most basic elements of of physics uh only what I read in high school and I don't remember that either I said that Iran will enrich uranium at 20% very swiftly because they said
• 57:00 - 57:30 they'll do it hours later Iran did it hours later so the West likes to underestimate Iran and that is a part of this orientalist you know top to bottom world view that they have uh underestimating the you know brown people and the other and so on they should not underestimate the capabilities and when Iran says that this nuclear program is well protected
• 57:30 - 58:00 Israelis won't be able to destroy it it is deep underground I don't think the Americans could destroy it even if they wanted to and Iran would definitely quickly leave the npt and do what it feels it needs to do wherever it has where wherever it will do it so the West should not push Iran for a nuclear weapon the West make sure that Iran does not go in that direction the way to do it is to yank on the leash of
• 58:00 - 58:30 those who want to uh push things in the wrong direction Iran does not want a nuclear weapon the reason is because it creates instability across the region if Iran develops nuclear weapon and other countries want to develop nuclear weapons then you're going to have lots of countries with nuclear weapons and many of them are run by dictators family dictatorships many of these regimes are unstable uh Saudi Arabia is a is a
• 58:30 - 59:00 country which is named after a family you know it's a tribal country a lot of these countries could go grow unstable look at what happened to Libya after the Americans destroyed the government the the the country fell apart so imagine in Libya if some Rogue ele elements have obtained a nuclear weapon let's see if there were nuclear weapons there at the time so Iran doesn't want to create this environment in West Asia or Central Asia where
• 59:00 - 59:30 countries all have nuclear weapons because it's a horrible thing remember during the Iran Iraq war when the West was giving Saddam Hussein to use they were giving him chemical weapons they gave the military intelligence to use it they gave him the political cover Iran did not choose to create nuclear weapons uh chemical weapons the leader back in then said no it's forbidden these are these are horrible weapons I was injured twice with
• 59:30 - 60:00 chemical weapons one uh once I was injured the first time I was injured with a a nerve agent um among friends they we were all injured and the second which was more uh in my opinion more a more terrifying weapon uh it was mustard gas near the end of the war many died many even now continue to slowly die over many years they can't breathe you know but in any case the Irani has refused to produce those chemical
• 60:00 - 60:30 weapons and so I understand Iran's position but if Iran is forced to have nuclear weapons they will get them very quickly and they should remember what I was saying about the 20% they should not underestimate Iran and Iran's capabilities the second is that if there is a conflict if if the because Israel is too weak to to fight any war with Iran they will lose and so its only hope is that the Americans would get involved if the
• 60:30 - 61:00 Americans get involved they should keep in mind that Iran has hundreds of thousands of missiles and drones underground in countless underground missile and drone bases and uh American bases in the Persian Gulf and the region would be destroyed but far more important than the American bases is the fact that those countries that host them or those regimes that them they they will be seen as aggressors they will be seen as a part of the aggression their
• 61:00 - 61:30 infrastructure will be destroyed that would mean no more gas that would be no more oil even if the Americans carry out a small strike and the Iran is retaliate in a limited way that would drive up the price of oil and gas ex you know enormously and if it's a full-blown War then there will be no more oil and gas coming from this region and that will destroy the global economy so uh there is a balance of Terror between Iran and the United States in that regard so I think uh the West should re
• 61:30 - 62:00 you know rethink their policies the world has changed the West is not the power that it was before it it created this situation especially with its foolish economic policies you know from the 1980s and the 19 especially the 1990s the deindustrialization of much of the West and then um you know the the change and and laws
• 62:00 - 62:30 and the consolidation of wealth and the the collapse of the middle class and the endless Wars that began after 911 and they brought it upon themselves but the world today is a very different world than in 199 one when the United States came in and created a huge coalition uh to fight against Saddam Hussein and there is reason to believe there is
• 62:30 - 63:00 evidence that actually Saddam Hussein in Kuwait did not fire because there was a deal between him and the west where uh he would be his forces would be expelled from Kuwait and he would not be overthrown and when their forces were expelled when there was an uprising in Ira in Iraq the Americans uh allowed him to use his helicopters to crush the protesters and and the people who wanted to overthrow him so there is reason to believe that there was a a deal struck
• 63:00 - 63:30 between Saddam Hussein and the west back then but that aside this is not 1991 the United States is not that power and Iran axis of I mean when Yemen despite the B52 and B2 bombers uh and other bombers striking Yemen they've shut the gates to the Red Sea Iran is infinitely more powerful so the West should rethink its policies instead of trying to be the masters of
• 63:30 - 64:00 the earth uh like they used to be they should recognize that this 500 years of domination is very very rapidly coming to an end yeah thank you so much Professor mirandi for being with us today great pleasure as always thank you very much for having me