Putin Takes Tough Line On Ukraine; Moscow Fears US-China War, Offers US BRICS Deal, Help With Iran

Summary

In this episode, Alexander Mercouris delves into the turbulent dynamics of international relations, focusing primarily on the conflicts involving the United States, China, and Russia. The United States has lifted some tariffs on Chinese electronics while maintaining others, a move seen as forced by market pressures and complaints from American firms like Apple. Meanwhile, Putin remains firm on Russia's demands concerning Ukraine. Additionally, discussions between the U.S. and Russia continue, with offers from Putin on cooperation in various sectors, including space and energy. The possibility of U.S.-China tension escalating into a conflict is also addressed, with some viewing current economic policies as precursors. Lastly, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran show possible avenues for resolution, though they remain complex.

Highlights

• The U.S. relaxes tariffs on Chinese electronics like smartphones and computers, impacting about 20-25% of China's exports to the U.S. 🇺🇸📱
• There's no reciprocal measure from China, leading to an anticipated rise in the U.S. trade deficit with China. 🇨🇳📊
• Russia, through Putin, offers the U.S. a deal involving BRICS cooperation, emphasizing mutual benefits in resources and diplomacy. 🌏
• The resolute Russian stance on Ukraine demands full adherence to previous conditions for any ceasefire, including cutting Western military supplies to Ukraine. 🚫
• Putin proposes collaboration in energy, space, and other areas, conditional on improving U.S.-Russia relations. 🔄

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. relaxes tariffs on certain Chinese goods, but significant tariffs remain, signaling ongoing economic tensions with China. 📈
• Russia, led by Putin, holds a steadfast position on Ukraine, demanding significant concessions before any ceasefire. 🛡️
• Talks between the U.S. and Russia reveal potential for cooperation across various sectors, contingent on resolving diplomatic tensions. 🤝
• Concerns grow over a potential U.S.-China conflict, with economic policies seen as preparatory steps. 🌐
• Negotiations with Iran highlight potential diplomatic breakthroughs, centered on nuclear program discussions. ⚛️

Overview

The geopolitical landscape remains fraught with tension as the United States, China, and Russia navigate a complex web of policies and negotiations. Recently, the U.S. chose to relax tariffs on certain Chinese electronic goods, a decision driven by internal market pressures and lobbying from major corporations like Apple. However, significant tariffs remain in place, keeping the trade climate tense and competitive.

In Russia, President Putin holds firm on his demands regarding Ukraine, emphasizing no room for compromise unless specific conditions are met. During a lengthy meeting with a U.S. envoy, Putin outlined potential areas for cooperation between the U.S. and Russia, particularly highlighting opportunities within the BRICS framework. His proposals extend across energy, space exploration, and nuclear cooperation, aiming for a broader rapprochement in international relations.

Simultaneously, the specter of conflict between the U.S. and China looms large, with current economic strategies potentially setting the stage for more than just economic rivalry. Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, tentative steps are being taken in U.S.-Iranian negotiations, primarily focused on nuclear agreements, signaling a possible thaw in relations. Despite these efforts, underlying tensions persist, underscored by strategic interests and global power plays.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Overview This chapter sets the stage by mentioning the date, Sunday 13th April 2025, and highlights the main topics that will be covered: the situation in Ukraine, the conflict between the United States and Iran, and briefly touches on the ongoing tariff war between China, which has escalated into an economic confrontation.
• 00:30 - 10:00: US Tariff Policy Changes The United States recently made an unexpected announcement regarding changes to its tariff policies. Without prior warning, the U.S. stated it would lift retaliatory and reciprocal tariffs on various goods. This includes products in the electronics sector such as chips, electronic devices, mobile phones, smartphones, and computers.
• 10:00 - 15:00: US-China Economic Relations and Trade Deficit The chapter discusses the complexity of US-China economic relations, focusing on trade and tariffs. It highlights that although a recent announcement may have been unclear, the majority of US imports from China remain subject to tariffs. These include both reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and other existing tariffs impacting trade. The chapter aims to clarify these economic dynamics and their implications for ongoing US-China relationships.
• 15:00 - 21:00: Reciprocal Tariffs and Political Impacts The chapter discusses the imposition of 20% tariffs, which followed a previous 10% tariff on other trading economies. An additional 10% was specifically directed at punishing China for its alleged fentanyl exports to the United States. This highlights the use of tariffs as a tool for political and economic pressure.
• 21:00 - 31:00: Tariffs as Preparations for US-China Conflict The chapter titled 'Tariffs as Preparations for US-China Conflict' delves into the contentious issue of trade relations between China and the United States, specifically focusing on the accusations concerning fentanyl exports. The summary highlights China's firm denial of claims regarding their involvement in fentanyl exports to the US, stating they have made efforts to cooperate with American authorities. However, they assert that any lack of effective cooperation is due to the US, not China. The narrative does not take a stand on the veracity of these claims, preserving a neutral stance on the issue.
• 31:00 - 45:00: US-Russia Relations and Putin's Proposals The chapter discusses the complex nature of US-Russia relations amidst various global challenges. It highlights the impact of tariffs on electronic goods between the United States and countries like China. The mention of China and electronic products suggests a broader discussion on international trade dynamics, where Russia might be involved indirectly. The focus is also on Vladimir Putin's proposals, although specific details about these proposals are not provided in the excerpt. The chapter seems to reflect on geopolitical strategies and economic measures affecting bilateral relations.
• 45:00 - 70:00: Ukraine Conflict and Russian Demands The chapter discusses the implications of a 20% tariff imposed on certain goods, particularly focusing on consumer goods that are highly in demand in the American market. It highlights China's role as the major supplier of these goods and the resulting impact on trade dynamics. Additionally, the chapter mentions complaints from companies like Apple regarding the challenges posed by the tariff.
• 70:00 - 93:20: US Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy Consensus The chapter discusses the implications of relocating production to the United States, highlighting how it would be time-consuming and expensive, which could lead to significant price increases for products like iPhones. The discussion also touches on the Trump administration's awareness and sensitivity to these economic pressures and potential signs of economic stress.
• 93:20 - 120:00: Iran Nuclear Discussions and Middle East Policy The chapter titled 'Iran Nuclear Discussions and Middle East Policy' revolves around recent developments in global economic policy, particularly focusing on the bond markets, treasury yields, and currency movements. It specifically highlights the relaxation of tariffs on key imports from China into the discussing country's market. These imports constitute a significant portion, approximately 20-25%, of China's total exports to this market. Such economic strategies are implicitly linked to broader geopolitical dialogues, such as those concerning Iran nuclear discussions and Middle East policy shifts.
• 120:00 - 128:00: Conclusion and Summary The United States has allowed China to resume exporting goods to the US. However, these goods will now carry a 20% tariff, resulting in higher prices for American consumers compared to earlier in the year. Nevertheless, the Chinese government has responded positively to this development.

Putin Takes Tough Line On Ukraine; Moscow Fears US-China War, Offers US BRICS Deal, Help With Iran Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 good day today is Sunday 13th April 2025 and before I get into the heart of the matters that I going to discuss in this program which again relate to the situation in Ukraine and also um in the conflict between the United States and Iran um I'm going to deal again briefly with the situation with tariffs the tariff war which is now basically an a tariff war an economic war between China
• 00:30 - 01:00 and the United States well yesterday without any prior warning as far as I can see the United States suddenly announced that it was um lifting retaliatory tariffs reciprocal tariffs on a range of goods including chips electronic devices um mobile phones smartphones computers that kind of thing the
• 01:00 - 01:30 fact that was not made clear over the course of that announcement is that um of course most of these goods that the United States imports are imported from China but these goods will not be the goods from China will not be um free of tariffs um China is still subject both to the reciprocal tariffs that President Trump has implo imposed but also to the
• 01:30 - 02:00 20% tariffs that he had imposed previously a 10% tariff which is at the same level as the tariffs he's imposed on pretty much all other trading economies plus a further 10% to apparently punish China for its alleged fentinil exports to the United States by the way a charge with relation to fentinel trade that the
• 02:00 - 02:30 Chinese heatedly denied they say that they have attempted at various times to cooperate with the United States on the question of fentinil exports or or or fentinel imports rather into the United States and that any lack of cooperation has tended to come from the American side and that China isn't responsible or play any significant role in this trade i am not going to get into the truth or
• 02:30 - 03:00 otherwise of these allegations and counter allegations in this program anyway the fact is China um is subject overall to a 145% tariff on u goods exported to the United States but these electronic goods smartphones computers chips um those kind of goods they will now only be
• 03:00 - 03:30 subject to a 20% tariff and it is likely that to a great extent that trade in these goods will resume now these are important consumer goods they are the kind of goods that um American consumers obviously want to have china is by far the biggest supplier of them at least foreign supplier of them there's apparently been complaints from Apple in particular that it would take them
• 03:30 - 04:00 years to relocate production to the United States that were they to do so it would be incredibly costly that in the meantime the cost of um iPhones for example would increase heavily in the United States donald Trump and his administration are sensitive to these price pressures and they're also sensitive to further signs of stress on
• 04:00 - 04:30 Friday in the bond markets um rises in Treasury yields falls into in the dollar that kind of thing so they have relaxed tariffs on these key imports from China and I understand that in aggregate the aggregate value of these imports accounts for something like 20 to 25% of the of China's exports to the
• 04:30 - 05:00 United States so the United States has now made it possible for China to begin to export these goods again to the United States though American consumers will pay a higher price for them than they did at the start of the year because they're now subject to a 20% tariff the Chinese government has responded positively to this move which
• 05:00 - 05:30 they say is a small step in the right direction now I'm going to make a few quick observations before turning to other topics briefly um this was in my opinion another move forced on the administration by price pressures both in the bond markets and the financial markets but also concern about what indefinite restrictions on these
• 05:30 - 06:00 imports would do to prices on the high streets um so this is a move that the United States was obliged to make but large tariffs remain and so far as of this time there has been no reciprocal measure from the Chinese so that now
• 06:00 - 06:30 means that around a fifth of China's exports to the United States will probably be able will probably now resume um so we're going to start seeing a movement of goods from China to the United States but with the whole range of American exports to China still apparently affected by China's
• 06:30 - 07:00 retaliatory 125% tariff we're not going to see a commensurate revival of American exports to China now in theory that should mean that the Chinese surplus the Chinese surplus in terms of China's exports to the United States far from diminishing
• 07:00 - 07:30 will now start to grow again uh China's trade surplus with the United States will begin to grow once again because the Chinese can export goods to the United States only a fifth of the goods that they were exporting before but by value but still significant numbers of goods well the United States cannot export back to chi to China so in light of that we were likely to see a rise
• 07:30 - 08:00 in the trade deficit the American trade deficit in trade with China which presumably is not what Donald Trump wants to see now I say I I must qualify all of this because though it's likely that we are going to start to see a resumption of exports by China to the United States there are other factors of play which are very difficult to assess
• 08:00 - 08:30 at the present time for example the United States is not exporting oil and other products to China china can find um alternative suppliers and probably quite quickly but there may be a time interval before that happens the Chinese have apparently been stockpiling oil and many other um important valuable raw materials for
• 08:30 - 09:00 some time now but it's not impossible that this could result in increased price pressures in China and who knows that may have a long-term effect or even a short-term effect on China's ability to export goods to the United States everything at the moment is up in the air and we cannot make any predictions but the fact that the United States has taken this
• 09:00 - 09:30 move to my mind points clearly to the need for some further understanding with China to try to bring the total tariffs down to try to reduce the 145% tariff the United States levies on all other Chinese goods and the 125% tariffs that China is
• 09:30 - 10:00 levying on American goods unless this happens I doubt that we will see a full return to stability in the um financial markets i suspect in fact I think it's highly likely that the financial markets will interpret this latest move by the United States as a sign that some major
• 10:00 - 10:30 deescalation and reduction of tariffs is coming and that they will respond very negatively um in a week or so if it does not just say um so I I would suggest that the United States really does now need to proceed in that direction and it needs to begin serious talks with Beijing on how
• 10:30 - 11:00 to achieve that so as to get this trade with China back on track and the United States has to some extent boxed itself into a corner here because Donald Trump apparently is waiting for the Chinese to make the first call i doubt that the Chinese will they seem increasingly confident that things are moving in their direction and the fact that the United States has just had to announce
• 11:00 - 11:30 this latest reduction in tariffs will be a further sign of this but somehow one way or the other as I said the United States despite the fact that the Chinese probably think that they're in the stronger position and don't need to make the call the first call the United States needs to get that deal with China
• 11:30 - 12:00 done to reduce the tariffs and it will have to I think be arranged through some third party singapore might be one country that might do that that might act as an honest broker here it has very important relationships with both countries with both China and the United States and it must be very concerned about the um complex and difficult situation that has arisen at this time so it has an interest in brokering a
• 12:00 - 12:30 compromise one can think of other countries but you know it's not my purpose to site to site cases um the other thing I want to say is that maybe the moment has now come for the president to reconsider the wisdom of his entire reciprocal tariff policy
• 12:30 - 13:00 my own view is that if the president decides to go back to row back to the position of 10% tariffs against most countries nearly all trading countries plus higher tariffs on certain specific types of goods motor vehicles aluminium and the rest well whether that is a economically wise policy or not my
• 13:00 - 13:30 guess is that it would be a politically sustainable position the president would be able to turn to the financial markets and say "Look most trade can continue around the world we're in a position we have a strong position with these 10% tariffs plus as I said the higher tariffs on
• 13:30 - 14:00 specific goods and I think that pressure in the markets at that point will start to lessen and I think this would be a politically defendable position the president moreover can always say that the reason he's done away with the reciprocal tariffs is because he never intended to stick with them in the first place what he wanted to do was to shock
• 14:00 - 14:30 everybody into thinking into taking him seriously about tariffs um I doubt most people would believe that but again it's the kind of argument the kind of claim that the president's supporters will probably accept or at least go along with and that will significantly limit and perhaps um contain any political damage i think
• 14:30 - 15:00 sticking with this policy of reciprocal tariffs by contrast one which to repeat again is completely contrary to the orthodoxy of the protectionists the American protectionists of the 19th century is a policy that ultimately is going to
• 15:00 - 15:30 cause more problems and is going to end in failure the president needs to think for himself to understand what his actual policy with tariffs actually is is it to protect American industry so as to rebuild manufacturing in the United
• 15:30 - 16:00 States if it is to protect American industry then having a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the United States and specific tariffs to protect particular industries may make a kind of coherent sense i am not saying it is economically correct or economically wise or that it will provide the good outcomes that the president believes but as I said it is a coherent policy by
• 16:00 - 16:30 contrast a policy of reciprocal tariffs is not so much it seems to me about protecting American industry but is about punishing other countries for their supposedly unfade unfair trade practices as the 19th century protectionists argued that is a completely pointless exercise it poisons
• 16:30 - 17:00 the relations of the United States with all of those countries and it doesn't really advance the policy of protecting American industry so I think the president needs to think this through as I said he can claim that his reciprocal tariffs were not really intended for the long term they were there they were simply brought in in order to highlight
• 17:00 - 17:30 the issue of the unfairness in trade practices of other countries so as to justify his underlying 10% tariff and as I said the higher tariffs to protect individual industries as I said maybe most people won't believe that but ultimately in the long term it really doesn't matter it I think would be politically speaking a viable policy whereas the reciprocal
• 17:30 - 18:00 tariffs at whatever level they're pitched um needs as I said is only going to create all kinds of political problems for the president going forward and is all but guaranteed to keep the financial markets unsettled who will be worried about constant movements in tariffs literally from one day to the
• 18:00 - 18:30 next and also affect business investment and business plans and all of those sort of things as I said returning to a straight policy of tariffs by contrast provides predictability high indicates predictability and stability in decision making now um the other thing the president needs to put aside is the animous that both he
• 18:30 - 19:00 and many of his supporters feel towards China now even though I don't myself go along with many of the criticisms of China and Chinese trade practices that are being made the worst that can be said about them as far as I can see is that China has taken advantages advantage of opportunities presented to it just saying
• 19:00 - 19:30 um even though I don't myself share these criticisms I understand where they're coming from i understand that in an American steel city for example um where the factories have all closed or in Detroit where the motorc cars have come under pressure and all of that i can understand that there people who've lost their jobs their livelihoods who uh see their communities die um they're
• 19:30 - 20:00 looking for a reason why that has happened and it is easy to understand why they might fix on China but the president of the United States the government of the United States cannot be guided by emotion in these kind of decisions even if it believes that the Chinese have indeed taken advantage of the United States its purpose must be
• 20:00 - 20:30 the government's purpose must be the protection of American intra in industry and of American business so again is straight tax is straight tariffs a straight 10% tariff plus higher tariffs to protect individual industries will do the job then that is enough and if it doesn't
• 20:30 - 21:00 provide the same vicarious satisfaction as punishing China does well so be it also ultimately there is never any sense in doing things that are counterproductive that will backfire and hurt you always the most important thing in decision making is to keep a clear head and a clear mind on what it is exactly that you're trying to
• 21:00 - 21:30 do going forward you may not like the Chinese you might not like the way they have acted but you must not let these feelings of dislike guide your decision makingaking so there it is that's my if you like unsolicited advice to the president and his officials now of course there is another view about the tariffs and I discussed it in a recent program i said that in the doomer uh the
• 21:30 - 22:00 Russian parliament there are discussions which um there are discussions which say that the whole purpose of the tariffs is not really about protecting American industry at all it is in fact about China it is about preparing for war with China it is about um the United States China proofing its economy if you like
• 22:00 - 22:30 by discovering where the weaknesses in the economic system of the United States are ahead of a possible allout conflict with China now that might seem rather extreme but then yesterday I read this article in the United States in in in Bloomberg an American magazine whose title reads "Trump and
• 22:30 - 23:00 sea are preparing for a war nobody wants." And then it goes on out of its way to criticize the way in which Trump has handled the tariff question by claiming that um even though this is all about preparing for some kind of a war with China um the United States Trump has alienated American allies but anyway the key point about this article as far as I'm concerned is that
• 23:00 - 23:30 it appears to acknowledge that this tariff policy has about it something of the quality of a dress rehearsal for some kind of economic mobilization in advance of some kind of conflict armed conflict with China trump
• 23:30 - 24:00 quickly moved from pitching tariffs as a way to strengthen America in a potential war with China i've not actually heard him say that but that's what Bloomberg puts it to imposing them on long-standing allies sending global markets into a tail spin and threatening a severe economic blow to nations the United States would need in any military conflict with the world's second largest
• 24:00 - 24:30 economy notice the word military conflict and um then um we go on to read that Cining appears to be thinking in terms of war to the same degree and that in both cases the United States and um China are basically making preparations economic preparations before they eventually
• 24:30 - 25:00 fight each other now whether that is true of China I I I can't myself see i mean I don't see that the Chinese have actually um taken the first step at any point so far in this tariff or economic war if you will but I do find it astonishing that Bloomberg can be talking about a future
• 25:00 - 25:30 war between the United States and China and preparations in the United States economic preparations in the United States for that war mirroring discussions about these tariff policies that have been happening in Moscow go with the Russians apparently telling each other that this is really all about the United States gearing up for a
• 25:30 - 26:00 military conflict with China i find it incredible that these discussions are taking place these articles are commenting about all of this um a possible war between China and the United States a military conflict between China and the United States without apparently giving any thought to what that means china is a military superpower it
• 26:00 - 26:30 has a large nuclear arsenal which is growing in size it absolutely has the capabilities to launch nuclear weapons against the continental United States it has growing conventional forces in the Asia-Pacific if this really was a dress rehearsal for a war with China then all I can say is God help us
• 26:30 - 27:00 all because this would be the most alarming development I can think of and I cannot to be honest believe that that is indeed what was in the president's mind um I have to say also that if this is some kind of dress rehearsal for a war with China um finding out what the weaknesses are
• 27:00 - 27:30 in the US economy um setting up so that it's to set up systems to protect the American economy from economic disturbance from economic disturbance in the event that a conflict in China begins well then there is an extraordinary degree of dishonesty and indeed even duplicity about these American moves because of course that is
• 27:30 - 28:00 nowhere admitted and um is also pointless anyway because if there is a war with China an actual military conflict with China then the economic consequences of that are unimaginable able and simply cannot be prepared for just to say anyway to repeat again I don't personally believe that that is at
• 28:00 - 28:30 the forefront of the president's mind he's been talking about tariffs since at least the mid1 1980s i think he generally believes in tariffs as I have said i think in his own mind this is ultimately about protecting US domestic industry i don't think it has any other um purpose but if I'm wrong if the people
• 28:30 - 29:00 in Moscow are right if Bloomberg is right well we are on an unbelievably dangerous path indeed anyway that's what I'm going to say about this topic i'm not going to uh bring it up again i'm going to with uh I'm going to leave the topic of tariffs now no doubt there'll be more to say about them tomorrow when the markets reopen anyway what else has been going
• 29:00 - 29:30 on well Mr wick Golf came to St petersburg he met with Putin he'd also met with Dimmitrif he had uh many hours of discussions with Putin the meeting apparently lasted for five hours so it's clearly an intense discussion and as I discussed yesterday um the Russians have not provided any um information any detailed information
• 29:30 - 30:00 about what Witgov and Putin said to each other however Peskov Putin spokesman has spoken and I have to say this and slightly to my surprise his overall tone was was actually quite positive he said everything is moving ahead very
• 30:00 - 30:30 well resurrecting relations basically from scratch is a very complicated thing to do it requires very intense diplomatic and other efforts the whole path consists of small steps to recreate an atmosphere of at least minimal mutual trust to strengthen this mutual trust this is what is being done now by the special services communications is
• 30:30 - 31:00 communication is taking place between the foreign ministry and the state department and um Pesco then went on to say that u talks between the Russia and the United States have a lot of nuances related to the resumption of normal operation of their diplomatic missions now most of these words appear to relate to the contacts between the Russian foreign ministry delegation led by Ambassador Dach and the Americans led by
• 31:00 - 31:30 Suzanne Coulter in Istanbul about reestablishing diplomatic proper full spectrum diplomatic contacts but I cannot imagine that Pescov would be talking in this positive way if there wasn't some feeling in Moscow that the meeting between Putin and Witkov had gone on
• 31:30 - 32:00 balance rather well now I have received further information about the guidance that the Kremlin has provided the Russian parliament about the meeting with Witgo and it rings true and apparently there's been a whole briefing paper um which obviously I haven't seen i suspect it's a strongly classified document but there are um
• 32:00 - 32:30 some talking points there's some particular themes which are being um apparently circulated by the Kremlin which are which were conveyed by the Kremlin to the parliament and which were set out in this briefing paper and which are being talked about inside the parliament personally on the topic of Ukraine
• 32:30 - 33:00 these the the Kremlin is telling the Russian parliament that Putin didn't give an inch that the Russians continue to insist um on their prior positions u they will not bargain on any ceasefire agreements unless all conditions are met as set out in previous meetings including obviously the conversation between the two
• 33:00 - 33:30 conversations between Putin and Trump so to repeat again the Russians before a ceasefire is agreed want a complete cessation of any military supplies by the Western powers to Ukraine and they want an end of intelligence sharing by the Western powers with Ukraine and in terms of the overall settlement of the conflict which the Russians insist must
• 33:30 - 34:00 be an integral part of any ceasefire discussions that must be on the basis of Putin's statements to the foreign ministry back in June 2024 the entirety of the of the four regions must be transferred to Ukraine um there must be cast iron guarantees provided that Ukraine will never join NATO there must also be
• 34:00 - 34:30 um significant very significant cuts in the Ukrainian armed forces there must be clear bars on the deployment of um foreign forces on Ukrainian territory and of course the deployment of NATO forces on Ukrainian territory is an absolute red line um which the Russians insist upon there must be significant
• 34:30 - 35:00 protections for Russians who find themselves living in what will be left of Ukraine their language their culture their religion must be respected and clearly also steps must be taken to eliminate the influence of those political groups in Ukraine that cling to the ideology of the 1930s the extremely objectionable
• 35:00 - 35:30 ideology of the 1930s so the Russians on the on these issues are not giving an inch they're not prepared to move and Putin made that clear to Wickoff over the course of their meeting but apparently there was an awful lot more said as well and that's what one would expect given that it was a five-hour meeting apparently Wit Putin told Wick Golf that Russia um together with the
• 35:30 - 36:00 other BRICS countries is prepared to work with the United States that say other BRICS countries of course includes China itself um that um if the United States starts to work with the bricks as a instead of against the bricks u the United States would be guaranteed access to rare earths and whatever resources it needed and in
• 36:00 - 36:30 terms of Russia it could obtain those resources at discount prices the brick states and of course Putin here is specifically talking about Russia but he apparently extended that to the rest of the brick states as well would also be there to help the United States stabilize the situation in the Middle East and elsewhere um Africa for example
• 36:30 - 37:00 the focus of course is on the Middle East and the difficult negotiations the United States is now involved in with Iran the Russians specifically would also be prepared to work with the United States in terms of energy deals to keep the situation in global energy markets stable and there could also be indeed levels of
• 37:00 - 37:30 nuclear cooperation between um the United States and Russia in nuclear power and Putin will have gone out of his way to point out to Wickoff that Russia today stands at the absolute forefront of nuclear power engineering technology um there was apparently also discussion at least the Russians appeared to have
• 37:30 - 38:00 brought up the question of Russia compensating American companies for um any lost business caused by Russian confiscations or nationalizations of American assets in Russia um following the 2022 crisis though in return the Russians
• 38:00 - 38:30 want all their assets in the west which have been fro frozen to be released to them again and lastly they were apparently proposals for cooperation in space where again obviously the Russians have a great deal to offer and the United States and Russia could work together in space in the same way that they briefly did as I well remember during the Apollo
• 38:30 - 39:00 su mission of the mid 1970s so you know a clear package of proposals made by the Russians to the Americans pointing out what the benefits for the United States of cooperation with Russia and not just Russia but the other Greek states as well would be
• 39:00 - 39:30 but ultimately on Ukraine the Russians are not prepared to give an inch it remains for them an existential question i am quite sure that the Russians do not consider Putin's proposals made in June 2024 to be maximalist proposals as they are always described in the western media on
• 39:30 - 40:00 the contrary I suspect that those proposals were discussed at very very great length within the Russian power structures before Putin made his speech to the foreign ministry in June 2024 i suspect there were probably discussions maybe even heated discussions in the Russian security council about them and other um stakeholders within the Russian system the military leadership certainly
• 40:00 - 40:30 the economic ministries were probably also involved as well and those proposals which Putin then presented to the foreign ministry probably represent a consensus reached within the Russian power structure as to what Russia could accept and it is the minimum of what Russia could accept i suspect that there
• 40:30 - 41:00 was considerable dispute and disagreement about this and I suspect that some of the more hardline elements or shall we say some of the elements that are more suspicious of the United States and of the West quite plausibly pressed for lots more um control of the whole of Ukraine's
• 41:00 - 41:30 Black Sea coast control of Adessa Kharkov maybe also that sort of thing so to repeat a point I made in the past I don't think the Russians have as much maneuver on this issue as many suppose and I don't think Putin can simply disregard the weight of opinion both within wider Russian society or
• 41:30 - 42:00 within the Russian elite simply by going back on what he said in June 2024 and um making concessions which have not been agreed by the Russian leadership in advance now when I say that obviously people will come back and say well the Russians insisting most specifically on the
• 42:00 - 42:30 transfer in their entirety of the four regions to Russia and by the way the diplomatic recognition of that fact is an unrealistic demand and insisting on it is going to extend the war with a result that many many more people are going to die well that on its in itself is true but
• 42:30 - 43:00 Russia is one of the parties to the war it made the difficult decision and I have no doubt at all that for the Russians it was a very difficult decision in February 2022 that they would have to go to war which is why they launched the special military operation in the first place and having come so far and sacrificed so much I think that they're in no mood to
• 43:00 - 43:30 compromise on um points like this it seems to me that a more realistic way of looking at this given that the Russians are winning the war and that the Ukrainians are losing the war is to look at it in reverse and to do what Wick Golf is doing and is apparently telling Trump "The Russians are implacable on this
• 43:30 - 44:00 issue they will not shift or budge from it given that this is so and given the trajectory of the war the only realistic way of ending it diplomatically is by exceeding to this Russian demand on the question of the four regions it is what is going to prolong the war
• 44:00 - 44:30 is refusing to agree to it insisting instead that the war be frozen along the existing conflict line and um expecting that the Russians will accept that they won't accept that and it is within their power to ensure that they don't have to accept it because they will gain control of the whole of
• 44:30 - 45:00 the four regions without doing so now yesterday following those extraordinary comments by um Keith Kellogg General Kellogg in which to say it straightforwardly he confirmed that he is in full support of uh the Star Mron plan to send European peacekeepers so-called peacekeepers
• 45:00 - 45:30 reassurance forces to Ukraine uh the Russians again made further statements one of their um senior diplomats Mirosnik uh made very strong statements again saying that this is completely unacceptable and he said this with specific reference to um Kellogg's words and what President Trump needs to
• 45:30 - 46:00 understand is that if he sticks to this stance if He remains determined to try to get the Kellogg plan implemented if he remains committed to the Kellogg plan then there will be no negotiated peace and the war will go on
• 46:00 - 46:30 in this respect it is Wick Goff who is by far the more realistic now Wick gooff I think personally is very open to these points which Putin would have made to him over the course of their meeting his
• 46:30 - 47:00 interview with Tucker Carlson essentially confirmed that he appears to have no fundamental objections to the points that Putin made in his June 2024 speech to the Russian Parliament and I think that uh again Witgo is a realist about this and I think he also recognizes what is by the way true that the June
• 47:00 - 47:30 2024 conditions which the Russians set do not undermine core American interests the core American interest at the moment is to end the war hopefully by a negotiation avoiding an open-ended confrontation with the Russians in Europe so as to draw down forces in
• 47:30 - 48:00 Europe perhaps redirect them to the Asia-Pacific region but also ultimately to secure peace that is the true American interest worrying about the status even of a big city like Zaporosia in a region that used to be a core area of the Soviet Union is not a core American interest though it is a
• 48:00 - 48:30 core Russian interest for the Russians this remains an existential matter it is a part of their identity it is a question it relates to a question of their fundamental security so I think Witkov understands this i'm afraid he is coming up when arguing against people like Kellogg against an American foreign
• 48:30 - 49:00 policy consensus that persists in believing that Russia is weak and can somehow be compelled into compromises that it doesn't want to make and that it can be forced to accept American terms if that were true we would not today be in the position in which we are when it is the Russians who are advancing right
• 49:00 - 49:30 across the front lines when the Ukrainian offensives and counteroffensives have all been defeated and defeated catastrophically and when the Russian economy um is steady and strong and when it is the western economies by contrast which are in increasing difficulties so there has to be an acknowledgment of
• 49:30 - 50:00 a lack of American leverage over Russia there simply isn't the leverage over Russia to get the Russians to change their positions on these fundamental questions and also a recognition of where American interests are and where Russian interests are also the Russians have defined their interests in tough but realistic terms they
• 50:00 - 50:30 are making what from their point of view are very moderate demands and these demands are not of a kind where it makes sense for the United States to refuse them i'm going to make here an observation which is that putting aside the enormous strength of the neocons in the United States in the state department in
• 50:30 - 51:00 Congress their long dominance of American for foreign policy which extends all the way back to the late 1980s the late year last years of the Reagan era the beginning of the George HW Bush era but especially the Bill Clinton era the trouble is that the entire American political system has been shaped around neocon thinking and
• 51:00 - 51:30 it seems to me as this is as if this has also proved to be true of the highest levels of America's military leadership we have all of these generals kellogg is just one but all of these generals who have risen to the levels that they have in part because they have accepted the NEON consensus it's become very clear to me from talking to American
• 51:30 - 52:00 military officers today that beyond a certain point American officers cannot achieve promotions unless the political powers are satisfied that they have what might be called conformist political ical views
• 52:00 - 52:30 and that means of course conformist political views first and foremost about foreign policy and I say this because in spite of the disastrous failure of the American military intervention in Ukraine it's quite clear to me from recent testimony that one of the major generals one of the most important generals involved in all of at military organizing and planning which
• 52:30 - 53:00 ended as I said in one failure after another general Cavolei has learned nothing from what happened what has happened in Ukraine and I haven't seen a single senior American military official above fourstar rank who seems to have any ability to rethink what happened
• 53:00 - 53:30 either they all speak from the same hymns they all you know sing from the same hymn sheet they all insist that the war is in stalemate that Ukraine is holding its own that the Russians are exhausted that their infantry is getting weaker and less well-trained and less reliable that the United States is under some kind of obligation and it's never explained what that obligation exactly
• 53:30 - 54:00 is it's certainly not a treaty obligation because Ukraine is not a formal US ally but anyway it's never fully explained what this obligation is it's moral is it economic is it political is it geostrategic anyway that the United States is under some kind of obligation to stand by Ukraine no matter what and there doesn't seem to be any willingness
• 54:00 - 54:30 to address the problem of resources or rather the lack of them to continue this conflict in Ukraine and I'm afraid that Kellogg as a general admittedly a rather older general who presumably gained much of his experience in the period before the neocon ascendancy anyway it seems to me that Kellogg is himself subject to this thinking he understands that there
• 54:30 - 55:00 were mistakes made that Putin wasn't treated with the respect that he merited as the leader of a great power that Russian interests would disregarded but he doesn't seem to be able or capable of imagining a situation where the United States must concede anything of substance to the other side in order to achieve peace a peace which is in its
• 55:00 - 55:30 own interests so Witgo who comes outside that world seems to me to have a much clearer grasp of the realities than Kellogg does and I hope that the president at some point comes to understand this now I have read over the last couple of hours that the president has made some further comments unfortunately I can't confirm whether he
• 55:30 - 56:00 has indeed made them i've gone to his truth social um um platform and I don't find these comments repeated there the president says all kinds of things all the time and I can't find them there either but it seems that he's becoming increasingly frustrated both with Russia and Ukraine he is baffled as to why this priest is proving more elusive than he expected he
• 56:00 - 56:30 doesn't understand why the Russians are sticking to the position that they are but he's also extremely agrieved with Ukraine he's very angry that the Ukrainians are holding back on the mineral rights deal that they won't hand over their pipelines to the United States and all of these things if I am correct in believing which I do that the
• 56:30 - 57:00 president has been making comments to the effect that it really is a case that neither side neither Russia nor Ukraine seem to be keen to move towards peace at the moment if that is true then I would actually suggest that that is in some ways on balance a sign that he is indeed moving in the direction that I suggested yesterday finally ending the American involvement
• 57:00 - 57:30 in the war but perhaps making a kind of parting shot at the Russians by imposing some further sanctions upon them now in light in in reference to the second if that is what the president does intend to do then I would hope that
• 57:30 - 58:00 the tariff events have taught him that excessive sanctions on the Russians at this time are not a good idea and that the sanctions that he will impose on the Russians are token ones if Pescov however is right if Witgov's optimism is what ultimately wins the day
• 58:00 - 58:30 with the president and his team and it's clear that as Reuters was reporting yesterday Witgov does have his supporters within the administration then perhaps we won't get any kind of sanctions at all maybe at that point the process that Pesco is talking about the hopeful process of simply normalizing
• 58:30 - 59:00 the relations with Russia will go ahead and then some of the ideas that Putin held out to um Wick Golf according to these reports in the Duma will be taken up in which case we might indeed see the Americans restoring ing fully relations with the Russians diplomatic relations with the Russians um agreeing with the Russians on energy
• 59:00 - 59:30 cooperation maybe accepting compensation for the loss of business that some of their businesses suffered in Russia restoring airlinks which is something that Kiriel Dimitrif and Ambassador Dach the two Russian point who have been meeting with the Americans have both been raising time and again
• 59:30 - 60:00 heirlinks restoring heirlinks would be an important first step it would go beyond symbolism it would be something tangible but it would not compromise anything fundamental and then we can get back to a situation where the Americans and the Russians are talking to each other now to be very clear this is not going to affect Russia's relations with China
• 60:00 - 60:30 there's been a number of statements including one by Alexander Shawin the head of the Industrialists Union the same union that Putin addressed on the 18th of March where he made clear that Russia stands by its determination to see the entirety of the four regions returned as he would say to it um anyway Shin has said that this tariff war between the United States and
• 60:30 - 61:00 China opens opportunities for China and Russia to deepen their relations that there is an awful lot that Russia can offer China which the Americans were previously offering China and that this um means that the Chinese can turn to the Russians whose economy in some
• 61:00 - 61:30 ways has a certain similarity to the to that of the US they're both huge continental countries with abundant natural resources and enormous reserves of energy and other resources raw materials and commodities and food all of which China needs that the Russians can persuade the Chinese to come and
• 61:30 - 62:00 invest in those things and by the way the Russians also have certain technological assets as well u China for example has been working to develop its civil aviation as by the way has Russia both China and Russia have big aircraft engine programs the Russian one that I know quite a lot about is the PD35 which contrary to some reports by
• 62:00 - 62:30 the way has not been put on hold in fact he's been given priority but I'm not going to get into that discussion today um from what I understand the Russian project is further advanced significantly further advanced and actually uses more advanced technology than the Chinese one does the Chinese have been relying heavily on the United States for aircraft engines that
• 62:30 - 63:00 is one of the areas of machinery for example which the Chinese have been importing from the United States the Russians are in a position to pro provide a large range of aircraft engines they could perhaps agree joint production with China and perhaps even return to earlier projects for joint development as well that had been floated between these two countries a few years ago but which were not then
• 63:00 - 63:30 advanced as China and Russia decided to each develop their aircraft industries their aircraft building industries independently of each other so the Russians are talking about all of that with the Chinese but that does not preclude economic cooperation at some level with the Americans
• 63:30 - 64:00 also and ultimately were that to happen as Putin apparently told Wolf Wick off it would be a stabilizing event in global affairs well I hope the Americans will heed that and will follow Putin's advice perhaps one
• 64:00 - 64:30 take of Trump's latest comments is that he is giving some thought to this one way or the other he is indeed going to have to make a decision fairly soon and there are a number of factors which I think are driving him in that direction firstly um at some point in the next few months the flow of weapons from the United States will end and at that point
• 64:30 - 65:00 as night follows day the Ukrainians are going to come back and demand more many more um the United States the president Donald Trump needs to make a decision whether he is prepared to provide more and given that we're likely coming to the end of um Joe Biden's $61 billion appropriation
• 65:00 - 65:30 made last April apparently there's $3.5 billion left um the president has to make also a further decision whether he's going to go back to Congress and ask for more i would have thought that he wouldn't want to do that that's the first thing but anyway it's that provides if you like an end point sometime in the
• 65:30 - 66:00 summer before which he has to make some kind of decision the second factor that I think the president needs to think about Donald Trump needs to think about again is the military situation on the ground now I've discussed the military situation in a certain amount of detail in my penultimate um program um there have been many more
• 66:00 - 66:30 reports over the last 24 hours and they all appear to confirm this picture of a gathering Russian wave um in the war now there's been many reports about the Russians pushing more further into Sunumi region
• 66:30 - 67:00 they seem to have crossed the border now in yet another place in Sunumi region um they've now apparently there's apparently now ongoing fighting for the it's not even a village the hamlet of which is located right on the border between Russia and Ukraine it's in K region um just inside Russia it's a tiny place um apparently the Ukrainians are making a desperate stand to try and hold
• 67:00 - 67:30 this tiny unimportant location makes absolutely no sense to me why they would do do this but um they're apparently suffering heavy losses and the Russians will gradually will certainly over the next day or so I think have brought this part of the battle of course to an end that will leave um a battle for one remaining place
• 67:30 - 68:00 which is a village to the south of Soua um um west of another village inside Russia called Pier Plur which I remember talking about quite a lot whilst the fighting in Kusk was underway anyway this village which I believe is called Gyak is still being bitterly fought over the factor that is slowing the Russians down in this area is that there is a
• 68:00 - 68:30 monastery uh uh a large Russian Orthodox monastery complex in this particular area um apparently it's quite an old building very powerfully built fortress-like in its character as many of these Russian monasteries uh are if you've ever visited them you know with walls and krenolations and all of that u there's apparently around 300 Ukrainian troops
• 68:30 - 69:00 located inside this monastery the Russians again according to Russian reports have entirely surrounded the monastery but there are inhibitions about attacking the monastery because it is a religious building and perhaps also a building of some cultural value i don't know one way or the other i've never heard of it before but anyway it is the fact that this is a
• 69:00 - 69:30 religious building that is having an effect but this battle is definitely coming to an end but the Russians are also now in Sunumi region in this area too and they are also cutting the roads and um closing in on the various supply villages just north of the city of Suni itself and it's likely that in the next
• 69:30 - 70:00 week or two they will be positioned quite close to Sunumi city and apparently the Russians control all of the roads with their drones their huge fleets of drones it's very very difficult for Ukrainian troops to engage in any movements in this area without attack being attacked by drones but in a sense this is starting to look like this
• 70:00 - 70:30 battle in Sunumi region is starting to look like only one part of the big battle that is now starting to develop in northern this northern area of northeastern area of Ukraine uh Sumi region region and Cheriggov region just to the north as well the Russians are now very strongly positioned in Kharkov
• 70:30 - 71:00 region they've crossed the Oscll River they've established a very powerful bridge head north of west of the Oscar River they've connected that bridge head with Russian territory territory inside Russia they're now re-equipping this bridge head with armored vehicles and heavy artillery all the indications are that they're preparing for a big advance from this bridge head they have all that advance could take in um
• 71:00 - 71:30 Kian which is just apparently three two or three kilometers south of the major Russian positions in fact it's been said that Kulpinsk is now all but undefendable if the Russ if or when the Russians do launch their advance against it the Russians have also effectively completed the battle for Volchansk they've established themselves
• 71:30 - 72:00 in southern Vulchans south of the Vulture River this is apparently now also widely confirmed so the Russians have very strong positions in Khakov region and there are now reports that there are Russian troops starting to assemble further north still in Cherniggo re region uh not in Tarling region itself but on the border but there are rumors of Russian
• 72:00 - 72:30 sabotage and reconnaissance groups entering Ukraine and briefly occupying positions in Charnig region all telltale signs that the Russians are scouting out the territory testing the strength of Ukrainian defenses in this area perhaps in anticipation of an offensive and way back last
• 72:30 - 73:00 year I remember being told by a source who has a great deal of information about the situation with within the Russian military that there is indeed a very very considerable um reserve of Russian forces located in north north of uh in this northern area just across the border or some distance
• 73:00 - 73:30 across the border and he put this force potentially as being as big as 200,000 men now the thing to understand is that if there is an major Russian offensive in this northern area of the battlefronts in Cherig Sumi and Haru region
• 73:30 - 74:00 and one is starting to get a sense that all of these various fronts are beginning to link up in some way and are being coordinated ated with each other well Chering region Sunumi region are close to the city of Kiev to to the capital and if there's a big offensive with the Ukrainians already overextended across the whole contact
• 74:00 - 74:30 line and with their forces becoming depleted then there could be a breakdown in Ukrainian defenses and the Russians could find themselves again very close or perhaps just outside Kiev itself now were that to happen of course that would be an enormous crisis maybe
• 74:30 - 75:00 we're going ahead of ourselves there were as I remember rumors of something similar last spring in the spring of 2024 and it didn't quite material well it didn't materialize then but perhaps this time with the Ukrainians much weaker than they were this time last year and with the Russian forces much bigger than they were this time last year maybe this time it's for real
• 75:00 - 75:30 anyway we will see but elsewhere um things are definitely now accelerating and um there's been lots of reports from the area south of Constantin u the Russians um as I discussed in my program yesterday uh are now in the last stages of clearing the Citadel of Chasy and
• 75:30 - 76:00 they appear to have built up significant forces there um it's clear that they have indeed captured significant territory and villages north of Toretsk and that they are indeed well on the way to clearing all of these villages west of Toretsk um leading all the way up to um the village of Suki Balka which is apparently the main Ukrainian defense
• 76:00 - 76:30 position south of the city of Constantinfka itself and Raovka as I discussed yesterday is talking about a mass encirclement of the Ukrainian troops in this area that may be as I said putting things too strongly but regardless it does look as if the Russians are moving and moving rapidly towards breaking Ukrainian defenses
• 76:30 - 77:00 south of Constantinfka in preparation of an attack on Constantin itself this battle has something about it which reminds me of the Russian offensive in Kusk in the autumn of 2024 before the collapse of Ukrainian defenses in Kusk in March of 2025 of
• 77:00 - 77:30 this year and it also to some extent with many different parts of the Russian army moving moving at the same time um with Russian forces in Chasar in Torres um south south of Constantinoka along the villages west of Torres in the Leman and Civer area all of them seem to be moving at the same time all of them towards ultimately the
• 77:30 - 78:00 same objective it reminds me again also of the battle that played out in southwestern Donbass in the summer of autumn and autumn of 2024 which resulted in the collapse of Ukrainian defenses in southwest Donbas with the fall of Uglad of all of these places one after the other and the establishment of very
• 78:00 - 78:30 strong Russian positions which they are now building upon so again probably one should not expect a big place like Constantin to fall immediately once the Russians reach it but it does look to me as if something big is coming in this area as well and lastly um today we have had confirmation that the Russians are
• 78:30 - 79:00 indeed in full control of Kotino southwest of Pakosk i've never myself had much doubt about this that the Russians seem to be pushing uh further west of Pakross uh that they seem to have resumed their offensive to basically encircle Bakaros even as their forces close on Novo Pavliffka and also on other places
• 79:00 - 79:30 further south i discussed this all yesterday all with the apparent intention of breaking into Nepal region i'm going to make a guess here again that at some point over the next few weeks the operation to capture Pakovsk will begin and then once Pakovsk is is captured and again I would expect this
• 79:30 - 80:00 to be a process that would last weeks rather than months it'd be more like the capture of Celidovo than the battle for Bahmad for example i would expect that thereafter we will see a Russian advance in force towards the Neper um and to the cities of Zaporosia and Nepro well the accumulative effect of
• 80:00 - 80:30 all of this especially with Russian dominance of the skies there were reports today that an F-16 another F-16 was shot down with its 26-year-old pilot the BBC is saying quite clearly that it was shot down by a Russian um missile the Ukrainians are putting out a story that it was shot down in a friendly fire incident i'm sure the BBC is correct by the way just saying um but anyway with
• 80:30 - 81:00 Russian dominance of the skies with Russian drones now increasingly interfering with Ukrainian supply lines with the weight of military power increasingly tilting in Russian favor I I I think again this has to be a pressure point on Donald Trump's ultimate decision decision
• 81:00 - 81:30 um come August it may be impossible any longer to sustain the narrative the nar the stalemate narrative and at that point maybe he will finally tilt to the position that the um conflict is being won by Russia and that
• 81:30 - 82:00 it really is the moment when the United States given that Ukraine is also proving objurate in relate in relation to the mineral rights agreements and all of that that this the moment has finally come for the United States to cut its losses and to repair its relations with Russia well we shall see um at the moment everything is in the air we see conflict in Washington the president is
• 82:00 - 82:30 probably mostly focused on his tariff policy and all of those issues um there's a battle underway clearly between Kellogg and Witgo uh the president himself has not fully made up his mind and we will see where it all goes anyway in the meantime Wick Golf is also trying to conduct negotiations in some other area as well
• 82:30 - 83:00 we've now had information coming out about the meeting that took place in Oman between the Americans and the Iranians it was not a face-to-face meeting the Iranians and the Americans didn't meet each other but discussions did took place and the American team appears to have been led by Witgo and Witgo is putting a positive spin on these discussions and
• 83:00 - 83:30 so interestingly are the Iranians as well now um I'm going to take this from the Tasmin Tasnim news agency which is an Iranian news agency it says that the uh Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmile uh Bakai said in a statement on Sunday that it Iran had retained its previous position stances in the talks that were held in Moscow um Iran had an
• 83:30 - 84:00 unchanging policy has an unchanging policy that the talks must focus on the nuclear issue and the removal of sanctions without any discussion about other topics so no discussions about ballistic missiles about the support by Iran for the Houthis and the Hezbollah and all of that no discussion about the Iranian political system um that those topics are not up for
• 84:00 - 84:30 negotiation but Iran will talk about its nuclear program and um Mr bakai then went on to say that reaffirming Iran's right to protect its nuclear science technologies industries infrastructure and achievements the Islamic Republic of Iran is prepared for dialogue in interaction to give asurances about the peaceful nature of
• 84:30 - 85:00 its nuclear program we are committed to employing all capacities to protect the legitimate and legal rights of the Iranian nation as a member of the non-prololiferation treaty and the safeguards agreement now that appears to say that Iran is still committed to the nuclear non-prololiferation treaty which means that it is not seeking a nuclear weapon the discussion is about
• 85:00 - 85:30 providing acceptable guarantees to the United States that that is not what Iran is seeking to do now there are reports in the American media that say that the Iranians came to Oman with a set of proposals this is that they would reduce the refinement level of their nuclear enrichment program or even stop it
• 85:30 - 86:00 entirely that they would dispose of their existing stockpile presumably by shipping it to Russia um that they would take steps to beef up surveillance of their nuclear sites but that in return they did expect significant sanctions relief from the United States as Alistister Crook absolutely correctly said in a program
• 86:00 - 86:30 that Glenn Diesson and I did with him um on Friday um that is essentially JCPOA 2 it's exactly the same proposal except perhaps that this time it might be um an indefinite proposal whereas as I remember the JCPOA was limited to just 10 years so that is the proposal that the
• 86:30 - 87:00 Iranians are coming back with if the Americans build on this proposal they may be able with the help of other parties to take it further i go back to that Russian report to the Doomer about um what Putin offered Wickoff when they met
• 87:00 - 87:30 in St petersburg it included uh a uh it included um offers to help stabilize the situation in the Middle East and as I said that does point to Iran and the Russians as I have discussed in program after program having themselves
• 87:30 - 88:00 just signed and ratified a security treaty a partnership treaty with Iran which includes security provisions are in a position to provide third-party guarantees that the Iranians will indeed stick by whatever pledges not to seek nuclear weapons that they make the Russians could say they
• 88:00 - 88:30 are there they're on the ground they have leverage over Iran they have surveillance capabilities with respect to Iran witkoff will have heard all of that for Putin just hours before he went to Aman himself and had his contacts with the Iranians one can almost see how the pieces are being put
• 88:30 - 89:00 together now will the Americans take this chance will they will Trump again accept this proposal netanyahu will not be happy with it there will be all sorts of people including some people in Trump's administration who won't be happy with it either they want to achieve Netanyahu's
• 89:00 - 89:30 objective of cutting off the head of the snake as is put destroying Iran as the means to stabilize the Middle East and secure Israel's indefinite dominance over it i think that is an absolutely unachievable objective i think trying to
• 89:30 - 90:00 pursue that objective is going to bring the cause the United States endless problems it will commit the United States to an indefinite war in the Middle East against Iran which would be disastrous and deeply unpopular back home it could easily be a kind of Vietnam and all over again in fact war with Iran is more like seems to me more
• 90:00 - 90:30 like a Vietnam type conflict than any of the other conflicts the United States has waged since the 1960s i think again at some basic level Donald Trump despite his obvious loathing for the Iranian regime understands this so again he has this
• 90:30 - 91:00 deal there the cont of it are clear enough all he needs to do is to put it together and pick the pieces let WitGoff do his job take the credit for what he's achieved and move move on and focus on his other matters his tariff policies his economic policies his policies of domestic reform which are enormously
• 91:00 - 91:30 ambitious will Trump do it again it depends ultimately on him the counterveiling forces in the United States are extraordinarily strong including within his own administration if I was confident that he would do it I would be saying so but
• 91:30 - 92:00 I am not i'm afraid if anything on this issue I lean somewhat in the other direction i'm more pessimistic than not but as I said it is up to him if he takes makes the right choices over the next few months or weeks with respect to Ukraine and Iran he will indeed have cleared the decks he will come in for
• 92:00 - 92:30 some domestic criticism he will make people like Lindse Graham extremely unhappy so that I would have thought was a plus if anything and he can move on if he takes the other course if he imposes massive sanctions on the Russians or worse still gets Congress to do it he's going to have a huge amount of problems on his hands he'll have killed any
• 92:30 - 93:00 prospect of a proper raproshma with the Russians if he returns to the Biden policy of support for Ukraine if he goes ahead and supports Netanyahu's policy with respect to Iran then he will simply become another NEOM it is up to him really in modern American policies politics has
• 93:00 - 93:30 so much depended on the decision of one man as I said the choice is his if he plays his cards carefully and well things could turn out well if he doesn't well I'm afraid his presidency will unravel and he will have failed well that's my program for today there'll be more from me soon let me
• 93:30 - 94:00 remind everybody again let remind you all again that you can find all our programs on our various platforms uh Locals Rumble X you can also support our work via our Patreon and Subscribe Star and by going to our shop links under this video last but not least if you've liked this program please remember to tick the like button and check your subscription to this channel that's me for today more from me soon have a very good day
• 94:00 - 94:30 [Music]