Shifting powers - NATO and the Global South | DW Documentary

Summary

Highlights

• In West Africa, a series of coups in Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali, and Guinea saw military juntas rising to power, with Russian flags waved in support. 🌍
• NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary amidst differing views on its expansion, with some seeing it as a provocation to Russia. 🎉
• India, sticking to its multi-alignment policy, maintains ties with Russia while exercising with the US military, showcasing its balanced international relationships. 🇮🇳🤝
• BRICS, now representing 45% of the world's population, offers a platform for countries like India and South Africa to have a larger voice on the global stage. 🌏🔊

Key Takeaways

• NATO's global influence is met with skepticism in various regions, particularly in the Global South, where its motives are questioned. 🤔
• Russia expands its influence in Africa and Asia, capitalizing on anti-West sentiment and historical alliances. 🐻
• Countries like India and South Africa seek a balanced diplomatic approach, engaging both Western and Eastern alliances for strategic benefits. ⚖️
• The rise of BRICS highlights a shift in global power dynamics, challenging Western dominance. 🌐
• The US's role in NATO is under scrutiny, with potential policy shifts posing threats to the alliance's future. 🇺🇸🧐

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:30: Introduction of NATO's Perception The chapter discusses NATO's self-perception as the world's strongest defense alliance and a community of shared values aimed at conflict prevention, rather than provocation. However, this perception is not universally held. Skepticism and distrust towards NATO are prevalent in various African and Asian nations, where there is a belief that they might be unwitting participants in a future cold war scenario.
• 01:30 - 03:00: Burkina Faso Coup The chapter discusses a coup in Burkina Faso, highlighting a disconnect between NATO countries and the Global South, influenced by the war in Ukraine.
• 03:00 - 04:30: Russian Influence in Africa In Burkina Faso, West Africa, a coup took place in September 2022 where mutinous soldiers detained the president, accusing the government of failing to effectively combat an ongoing Islamist insurgency.
• 04:30 - 06:00: Russia's Global Reach Russia's influence and involvement in global geopolitics are highlighted through the events in Burkina Faso. The country witnessed its second coup within a year, with supporters taking to the streets. These supporters, carrying Russian flags, demonstrated a call for peace and support for the military, emphasizing their commitment to combating terrorism. The chapter delves into Russia's impact and reach in international matters, particularly in regions facing instability.
• 06:00 - 09:00: NATO's Strategic Shift and Challenges The chapter discusses the attack on the French embassy by individuals dissatisfied with French and Western influence, leading them to seek military assistance from Russia after a coup. It raises the question of whether Moscow instigated the uprising, highlighting the complicated geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel region where Russian interests are evident.
• 09:00 - 12:00: Eastern European Concerns This chapter discusses the concerns in Eastern Europe related to Russian disinformation campaigns and military unrest in West Africa.
• 12:00 - 17:00: Global South's Skepticism of NATO The chapter discusses the geopolitical dynamics involving the Global South's perspective towards NATO. Amidst a legal geopolitical vacuum, Russia's strategic movements are highlighted, especially its aggressive expansion into Africa to forge military cooperation and garner support. The narrative underscores the importance of acknowledging the competitive international arena where various global players, including Russia, are prioritizing their interests and strategies. It emphasizes the necessity for nations to make choices rooted in their unique needs and perceptions.
• 17:00 - 21:00: South Africa's Position The chapter discusses South Africa's stance of at least neutrality concerning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While in various parts of the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin faces unwelcoming sentiments, in South Africa, he is perceived as a friend by some. Despite the Western countries' attempts to form a global coalition to denounce and isolate Moscow's regime, Russia endeavors to propagate its narrative. The chapter emphasizes the narrator's belief in truth and counters disinformation with the truth.
• 21:00 - 25:00: Historical Context and Global South's Perception The chapter provides an overview of NATO's stance on global issues, emphasizing the importance of public debate and the rule of law. The focus is directed towards Russia's use of military force, which NATO explicitly opposes. The setting is at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.
• 25:00 - 31:00: India's Neutrality and Stance The chapter discusses Jens Stoltenberg's tenure as Secretary General, highlighting his efforts in managing the organization during challenging periods such as Russia's invasion. Stoltenberg is recognized for unifying allies in support of Ukraine and expanding NATO's global partnerships, emphasizing the worldwide nature of security.
• 31:00 - 37:00: BRICS as a Counterbalance The chapter titled 'BRICS as a Counterbalance' discusses the global implications of security and geopolitical events. It highlights the interconnectedness of global regions, illustrating that events in Ukraine, such as Russia's actions led by President Putin, have a significant impact on Asian regions like the South China Sea. The chapter notes the celebration of NATO's birthday on April 4th, acknowledging the historical bond between Europe and the US post-World War II, but also reflects on the somber mood in Brussels, despite emotionally charged speeches. This suggests a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions and the role of alliances like NATO in maintaining global balance.
• 37:00 - 43:00: China's Growing Influence This chapter discusses the 75th anniversary of NATO, highlighting the alliance's strength and success over the years. It touches on the varying relationships NATO members have had with Russia before the war. Countries like Hungary and Germany had close ties with Russia, while Eastern European nations have historically been more cautious about the Kremlin.
• 43:00 - 46:00: US Domestic Sentiments and Trump's Influence The chapter discusses NATO's military drills in Western Poland, emphasizing the readiness of troops from diverse countries to fight collaboratively in case of conflict. There is a palpable fear among Poland and other nations bordering Ukraine or Russia regarding potential attacks, especially if Ukraine were to fall. This chapter highlights how these countries, having experienced Soviet domination, have been forewarning about Russia's aggressive intentions.
• 46:00 - 49:30: Future of NATO and Europe's Role In this chapter, the speaker reflects on the past experiences of dealing with Russia and the lessons learned. They point out that despite warnings and shared experiences, others did not believe or heed their advice. Previous attempts to engage in 'business as usual' have now been proven misguided as the threat remains. The speaker underscores the notion that while engaging in business is possible, there needs to be preparedness against potential aggression. The sentiment expressed is one of historical consistency, noting that Russia's approach hasn't changed over centuries.

Shifting powers - NATO and the Global South | DW Documentary Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 NATO calls itself the strongest defense alliance in the world. And a community of values. Not to provoke a conflict, to prevent a conflict. But this view is not shared by everyone. You don’t have a preordained right to be in charge. In many countries in Africa and Asia, the military alliance is regarded with skepticism and distrust. We can’t help but be suspicious that we’re being set up for a future cold war.
• 00:30 - 01:00 There is some hypocrisy there. The war in Ukraine has further divided the world and revealed a deep disconnect between NATO countries and the Global South. We don’t believe in taking sides. The West also needs to recalibrate their approach. So, what does this mean for NATO and the future of the alliance? We cannot expect that all countries have the same view of this world as we do. NATO should expand on a global basis.
• 01:00 - 01:30 Burkina Faso in West Africa. In September 2022, mutinous soldiers detained the president and seized power, accusing the government of failing to fight an Islamist insurgency.
• 01:30 - 02:00 It was the second coup within a year. Supporters of the coup took to the streets, waving Russian flags. All we want is peace. Burkina Faso, land of our ancestors, will never give up the fight. We are here to support the military in order to pacify our country which has suffered so much from terrorism.
• 02:00 - 02:30 The embassy of former colonial ruler France came under attack. Dissatisfied with French influence, and the West in general, the orchestrators of the coup turned to Russia for military assistance. We are asking France to get out, to leave, to leave us in peace because they are taking us centuries back. Did Moscow instigate the uprising? It’s not clear. But the Sahel region has been in the crosshairs of Russian
• 02:30 - 03:00 disinformation campaigns for years. The coup in Burkina Faso was just one in a series of military takeovers in West Africa since 2020 that have toppled governments in Niger, Mali and Guinea, and where military juntas ordered Western troops to leave, inviting Russian mercenaries in instead. Russia wants to show that the West is failing.
• 03:00 - 03:30 So, of course, when there is a legal geopolitical vacuum, Russia moves in. Everybody's in the game. We're just one of the players now. That’s what I think we have to understand and integrate into our thinking. People are looking after their own interests and making a choice based on what they see and what they need. The Kremlin has aggressively expanded its footprint in Africa, offering military cooperation and seeking support,
• 03:30 - 04:00 or at least neutrality, over its invasion of Ukraine. In some parts of the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin is no longer welcome but here, he is seen by some as a friend. And all of this despite the West’s efforts to build a global coalition to condemn and isolate the regime in Moscow. Russia tries in a way to of course spread their false narrative. And, of course, I believe in truth. Also, I believe that the best answer to disinformation is the truth,
• 04:00 - 04:30 and, of course, NATO's always ready to be part of an open public debate about the situation in Europe, in Africa and we will continue to appeal to everyone that believes in the rule of law that we should not allow a country like Russia to use military force to get their will We are at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. After a decade in office,
• 04:30 - 05:00 Jens Stoltenberg is about to step down as Secretary General. He has navigated the organization through difficult times. Since the start of Russia’s invasion, he has been trying to keep the alliance together. Rallying allies behind Ukraine. He has also intensified NATO’s outreach to global partners. Our security is not regional.
• 05:00 - 05:30 Our security is global. What happens in Ukraine matters for Asia. The more successful Putin is in Ukraine, the more likely it is that we can see something similar happen in the South China Sea On April fourth, Nato celebrated its birthday and the strong bond forged between Europe and the US in the aftermath of World War Two. But there was no real party mood in Brussels in spite of speeches full of strong emotions.
• 05:30 - 06:00 Today, we celebrate the 75th anniversary of the strongest, most enduring and most successful alliance in history. Some NATO members like Hungary and Germany used to have very close ties with Russia before the war. Others especially those in Eastern Europe have always been wary of the Kremlin.
• 06:00 - 06:30 We visit a military drill in Western Poland, where NATO high readiness troops from different countries are exercising how to fight side by side should the need arise. Like other countries that share a border with Ukraine or Russia and that used to live under the thumb of the Soviet Union, the Poles now fear they are at risk of being attacked, too, if Ukraine falls. They had been warning of Russia’s true intentions for years.
• 06:30 - 07:00 It’s a little bit sad for us that we were aware of the situation. We were warning the others, we were showing them our experience of many years of cooperation with Russia. They did not believe us. They wanted to make business as usual. Now, they can see we were right. We can make business, but we have to be ready for any threat of aggression. Because Russia is Russia, they have not changed for centuries.
• 07:00 - 07:30 Helping Ukraine fight against Russia has so far united NATO countries. Even though Kyiv is not a member of the alliance. Jens Stoltenberg and fellow NATO leaders believe their cause is a righteous one, that Russia’s war on Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law. These are the two competing narratives which have been central to Russia’s long-standing dispute with NATO: Moscow says that the alliance has been encroaching
• 07:30 - 08:00 on Russia’s borders for years. NATO says it’s the other way around: Central and Eastern European countries were afraid of Russia and wanted to join the organization. The claims that the Russians and some others make about what they called NATO's expansion to the east after the end of the Cold War are really badly misplaced and don't at all describe what happened. I was in the George HW Bush administration,
• 08:00 - 08:30 I remember that countries like Hungary came to us as the Berlin Wall was falling and were knocking on NATO's door because they had been through World War Two, they had been through the post World War 2, basically Soviet occupation, and they wanted defense. They wanted to be in an alliance that would protect their sovereignty. The way the West sees it, every country should have the right
• 08:30 - 09:00 to choose its own allies and not bow to global powers seeking to maintain spheres of interest. But this narrative doesn’t seem to convince the Global South. What we cannot understand is why do you want to expand it? Why would you want to enlarge the footprint of NATO in a world where we should be decelerating the centers of conflict,
• 09:00 - 09:30 especially when all of us see globalization and the world being increasingly integrated. From NATO’s perspective, military support from its members is badly needed for Ukraine to survive as a sovereign nation. But the allies are also struggling economically and have problems producing enough ammunition and weapons for both Ukraine’s and their own protection. Russia meanwhile has so far defied Western sanctions
• 09:30 - 10:00 and completed the transition to a full war economy. So, the supporters of Ukraine understand they need the international community to help them contain Russia. And they want countries in the Global South to also believe this is for their own good. If you validate the principle that unprovoked aggression goes unanswered, it's going to be the small defenseless countries who are going to face the risk. The United States doesn't face the risk of unprovoked attack as long as we remain strong.
• 10:00 - 10:30 We have to open up to dialogue, to other perspectives, and we have to make it clear to the countries in the global south which are not all the same, everyone has their interests that we are interested in dialogue. We are interested in this strategic partnership, which is all about protecting the rules-based international order. But is this the kind of partnership the countries in the Global South
• 10:30 - 11:00 are looking for? We travel to South Africa to find out. The country has emerged as one of the driving forces on the continent. South Africa does not see the war in Ukraine in the same light as the West The government in Pretoria has refused to join the Western coalition against the Kremlin. Instead, South Africa conducted military drills with Russia and abstained on every resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly.
• 11:00 - 11:30 We join a rally in Soshanguve near Pretoria, one of the most notorious townships in the area. Supporters of the governing African National Congress have come together here to protest gang violence. Crime, unemployment, corruption these are the issues South Africa is currently grappling with. But in spite of all that, they are proud of their country, and of their successful struggle for freedom and independence.
• 11:30 - 12:00 We want to be treated as equals. Because we’re living in a continent called Africa doesn’t make us different from people who are living in Europe, from people who are living in the Americas. We’ve got our own destiny. We want to go to that destiny using our own way of doing things. We cannot be told. Because the very same people who want to tell us what to do, they get resources from the same Africa, they want to undermine today.
• 12:00 - 12:30 We support everyone who is a victim of neo-colonialism, who is a victim of imperialism. We are going to support them without even flinching. There is a historical legacy that might partly explain South Africa’s political choices. After all, it was the United States and other Western countries that supported the apartheid regime for decades, while the Soviet Union provided money and weapons for the fight against white dominance in the region. The weapons are still on display.
• 12:30 - 13:00 Symbols of old alliances and partnerships. When NATO or the West goes to countries like India, China now of course, but also in Africa, Latin America to come and join them in sanctions against Russia or in condemnation of Russia, they forget that these countries have historical relations with Russia, that some of them have been helped by Russia in their liberation struggles, and they forget that these countries are also deciding on the basis of their national interests.
• 13:00 - 13:30 A community center near Pretoria. Maropene Ramokgopa is the VIP visitor here today. The politician has served in different positions in the government including as a foreign policy advisor to President Ramaphosa. The center has been financed by Qatar. Just one example of the many partnerships South Africa has forged since its independence. Here, NATO is viewed with distrust.
• 13:30 - 14:00 There is a war happening right here in our own continent. No one is talking about what is happening in Western Sahara. No one is talking about even what is happening in the Middle East. There’s many places where we believe that intervention is needed, not only in Gaza. And we believe that they have really been some kind of discrimination against other races as it relates to conflict that are happening and it’s only important if it is happening in a certain geographic area and certain race.
• 14:00 - 14:30 That is what we are seeing. That is how people seem to perceive NATO here in South Africa, and also in other parts of the world as a western club characterized by double standards. When we see NATO, we often can’t help but be a little bit suspicious that we are being set up for a future Cold War based on a trade war, based on historical aggression.
• 14:30 - 15:00 NATO has never been aggressive. No one in the Global South has to worry about that. And it will stay that way because the member states of NATO are all Western democracies that feel clearly anchored in the values that are at stake and that also have a clear moral concept. Whenever NATO went global, you know, it did Iraq and Afghanistan. And if you talk about countries that are called the global South or countries that are not Western, I think for them it's that memory which perhaps takes the center stage,
• 15:00 - 15:30 which is that every time NATO goes global, it does an Iraq and Afghanistan. So, NATO's blunders in Iraq and Afghanistan are something by which we have a perception. And I think it's a correct, valid perception, because there's no other way under the sun that you can justify what NATO did in Iraq and Afghanistan. NATO allies went into Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the US to ensure, they said, that the country would never again become a safe haven for terrorists.
• 15:30 - 16:00 The invasion of Iraq was launched in 2003 under what turned out to be a false pretext. It was conducted by a US-led coalition of countries, which included some other NATO members. The conduct of the West in both operations undermined its claims that it wants to protect a rules-based global order. The suffering of the civilian populations in Iraq and Afghanistan; and eventually the humiliating retreat from Afghanistan,
• 16:00 - 16:30 weakened the reputation of the West’s leading power, the US. One thing we should do as NATO is to draw lessons from the Afghanistan episode because it was heartbreaking to see while NATO troops were leaving, the panic and disorderly behavior on the part of Afghanis.
• 16:30 - 17:00 For thirty years, the United States has bent the world to its will. It has taken us into one adventure after the other and therefore has forfeited the right for morally leading. New emerging powers like India are eager to step in to fill the void. We are in New Delhi, India’s capital. The country of 1.4 billion people has aspirations
• 17:00 - 17:30 to become a top global power. Faithful to the cornerstone of its foreign policy, multi-alignment, India has refused to sacrifice its ties with Russia over the war in Ukraine. Instead, it has taken advantage of Western sanctions on Russia by purchasing cheap oil in bulk. NATO seems to be seen here as the party mainly responsible for the war in Ukraine. Two factors – one the growing conflict between the two superpowers
• 17:30 - 18:00 that is the US and Russia. But more specifically, it’s NATO itself and the kind of provocation that NATO has done regularly on the Eastern border of Russia. The purpose of NATO is to help the US sell arms. It’s merely a quest by the US to find new markets for its weaponry, nothing more. I particularly don’t feel that there is a cold war, or any such type of war, is happening where NATO is needed.
• 18:00 - 18:30 Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s refusal to break with Russia seemed to surprise many Europeans who assumed that India, being a democratic country, would side with other democracies. Does this mean India is indifferent to the violence in Ukraine? A fair question should be: what really has India done? India takes a lot of pride in saying that yes, we are neutral, but at the same time we do not support the war in any way.
• 18:30 - 19:00 We have also sent 15 consignments of aid to Ukraine. We are also perhaps one of the most vocal supporters of mediation and peace building. You know, India has a particular relationship with Russia and it has a particular relationship with Europe. And these are both constructive partnerships. They have different elements there. The relationship with Russia still remains important for a number of reasons: defense, energy security, food security and strategic relations in Eurasia.
• 19:00 - 19:30 Russia has long been India’s largest arms supplier But the war in Ukraine has hastened New Delhi’s impetus to diversify its weapons base. Modi’s government has turned its focus to domestic production with Western technology: This guided missile destroyer – locally made by India is a recent example of that. A military drill in the Himalayas near India’s disputed border with China.
• 19:30 - 20:00 Indian and American troops are training together here, as both countries try to manage rising tensions with Beijing. Exercises like this one reflect the budding defense ties between India and the US. But the mistrust of NATO appears to be deeply rooted. I think NATO and its member states and other European institutions do suffer from charges of double standards or hypocrisy
• 20:00 - 20:30 when it comes to universalizing their mission and the feeling in many parts of the Global South is that those standards only apply when European security or NATO interests are at stake but are conveniently set aside when other countries share similar concerns about things happening in their regions and their countries. So, countries like India and South Africa are aspiring
• 20:30 - 21:00 to take on a bigger role on the world’s stage. Their platform is BRICS an informal club initiated by Russia in 2009 to counter-balance the G7. It has recently welcomed new members. The group now represents 45% of the world's population. Excellencies, India fully supports the expansion of BRICS membership. BRICS members have differing interests.
• 21:00 - 21:30 There is competition. There are disputes among them. But what unites them is the urge to challenge a world order dominated by the West. The GDP of the BRICS is larger than G7. So, you need to recognize the reality that BRICS countries Global South countries are rising. We do believe that we will stay in the BRICS and strengthen the BRICS and let the voice of the African nations to actually be heard. BRICS is definitely a good forum to actually do that because
• 21:30 - 22:00 it is taking away the power of the West. We look at BRICS and when we are there in BRICS, I think we want to retain the non-Western nature and the flavor of BRICS, because if we are not there, then actually it becomes anti-Western. BRICS is about geopolitics and economic cooperation. It is not a military alliance. NATO countries collectively spend much more on defense. But BRICS nations are catching up especially China.
• 22:00 - 22:30 It already has the second-biggest economy in the world, and in numbers the biggest army and navy in the world. For the last few years, China has been asserting its power in its neighborhood in particular towards Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province, but also towards Japan and, increasingly, in the South China Sea. A region of strategic importance for NATO countries as well, as one third of global trade is shipped through the area.
• 22:30 - 23:00 This is a very volatile region, we know that. But there are no wars. I mean, there are no hot, hot wars at the moment. And most of the countries that I speak to, whether it's Indonesia or Malaysia or even the Indians who are quite pro-Western at the moment, don't want this foreign power, this foreign thinking power to come to the region and perhaps make things worse. So far, it is mainly the US that is boosting smaller countries
• 23:00 - 23:30 in their efforts to contest Beijing’s claims in the region. But could NATO play a role there too? After all, in its new strategic concept, the alliance describes China’s ambitions as a challenge to its security. Well, my own personal view is that NATO should expand on a global basis, not for offensive purposes or just out of naive idealism, but because the world has entered, I think, a new period of foreign policy.
• 23:30 - 24:00 You could take 2023 as the year that happened with the visible formation of the China-Russia axis. And if you ask countries along China's periphery Japan, South Korea and India they will say they're very worried about what the implications of this are. I have my doubts about whether we need to become more global. It matters whether a conflict is three hours away from you or 30 hours.
• 24:00 - 24:30 We have to deal with it differently, and I don't think that's the future. But that doesn’t rule out NATO becoming larger. But the future of NATO will also depend on its most powerful member the United States. We are in Washington DC, where those voices doubting the value of the transatlantic bond have been growing louder and louder in recent years. The money could be spent elsewhere to do like better infrastructure or like better politics in America first and yes, I think money be spent to other resources.
• 24:30 - 25:00 I mean we do have the largest portion of the contributions to NATO. We’ve asking them for years our country partners to contribute more. Contribute more or we are going to kind of loosen up our ties. But we have the responsibility. I think it ensures that others feel safe in the world. And I think without it, you have outside actors like Russia and China. They are going to feel emboldened. He has been fueling anti-NATO sentiments.
• 25:00 - 25:30 When Donald Trump was President of the United States, he described the European Union as a foe and threatened to make Europeans pay for “US protection.” Now, on the campaign trail, he is doing it again. One of the presidents of the big countries stood up, said: Oh sir, if we don't pay and we are attacked by Russia, will you protect us from Russia? I said no, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.
• 25:30 - 26:00 You got to pay. So, could a second Trump presidency mean the end of NATO? I do think that it's highly likely Trump will withdraw from NATO if he's elected, and I think that would be a catastrophic decision for the United States. It would have negative consequences all over the world because the countries of Asia would say, look, if the United States is leaving the most successful military alliance in history, why do we think they would defend us?
• 26:00 - 26:30 We need to look at the factual elements and also the very recent development that the Senate has enacted a bill to prohibit any future US President to withdraw the United States from NATO is a good safeguard measure, I think. In May 2024, NATO completed its largest exercise since the Cold War,
• 26:30 - 27:00 involving thousands of troops from Europe and North America. Regardless of who wins the race to the White House, many here expect that US support for NATO will decline anyway, and that Europe will have to do more for its own defense. Some see it as a chance for the continent to emancipate itself from the US and re-calibrate its approach to the Global South. I believe very much that Europe has an important experience to share with the world: Countries coming together after a war,
• 27:00 - 27:30 coming together, setting up structures. This is an inspirational, really an inspirational story. It inspires me as a European, but I can tell you it inspires many people in Asia, Africa and Latin America. I think instead of talking at each other and always sort of exemplifying all the divergences and the problems, I mean, divergences are there everywhere, but I think we should be talking to each other much more, and the geopolitical moment is perhaps right for it.
• 27:30 - 28:00 We need to get off our high horse, finally meet on an equal footing and accept that there are no longer any blocks in the world. That’s the decisive factor. A coalition of all those who support the rules-based international order because in the end it protects everyone For now, Europe is occupied with the war raging on its doorstep. But it’s this war that has shown the Europeans that little can be achieved alone in an emerging multipolar world. Changing perspectives may be an important step towards
• 28:00 - 28:30 a more peaceful future.