Strategic Positions Fall - Critical Mine Closes | U.S. Wants Change: Is It Enough? - Ukraine Update

Summary

In this Ukraine update, key strategic areas are being lost and critical resources are impacted by Russia's strategic advancements. The halt in the extraction of coke and coal near Pavlovsk highlights economic challenges. Resistance persists despite manpower issues, and geopolitical tensions rise as both Ukraine and Russia grapple with the long-term implications of territorial control and resource access. Tensions with Slovakia over gas supplies emphasize the interconnectedness of military and economic strategies. Meanwhile, the U.S.'s position and future decisions loom large, potentially influenced by incoming American leadership. This complex scenario underscores the intricate balance of military strategy, economic resilience, and international diplomacy in the ongoing conflict.

Highlights

• Russia's strategic positions are expanding, reclaiming areas lost to Ukraine's counter-offensive earlier this year 🌍.
• Ukraine halts critical coke and coal production due to territorial threats, impacting the steel industry's future 💼.
• Slovakia's Prime Minister labels Ukraine as an unreliable partner over gas disputes, pointing to a fracturing alliance 🤝.
• Speculation around North Korean troops fighting for Russia, raising questions about international military alliances 🧐.
• Potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy under new administration could alter the conflict's trajectory dramatically 🔄.

Key Takeaways

• Ukraine's 2023 counter-offensive gains are being reversed in some areas; Russia is making strategic advancements 🚀.
• The halt in coke and coal extraction near Pavlovsk threatens Ukraine's steel industry, a major export sector 🏭.
• Diplomatic tensions rise as Slovakia accuses Ukraine of disrupting gas transit, hinting at broader geopolitical shifts 🌍.
• North Korean soldiers allegedly fighting in Ukraine, further complicating the international involvement in the conflict ⚔️.
• U.S. and potential Trump administration's decisions may significantly influence the strategic and geopolitical landscape 🇺🇸.

Overview

In the latest Ukraine conflict update, Russia is making strategic strides, reclaiming areas that Ukraine had previously captured during their 2023 counter-offensive. These advances are not only reversing Ukraine's hard-won gains but also threaten critical economic resources, with the suspension of key industries such as coke and coal mining near Pavlovsk. This has severe implications for Ukraine's steel production capabilities, a major pillar of its economy.

Diplomatic tensions are heightening, especially between Ukraine and Slovakia. Slovakia's accusations of Ukraine's unreliability in gas transit agreements have added fuel to the fire, raising questions about the cohesion and future of European alliances. This situation underscores how intertwined military and economic strategies have become, as Europe grapples with energy dependencies and political allegiances.

The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the alleged presence of North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine, alongside speculations that U.S. policy shifts under a potential Trump administration could reshape strategic alliances and conflict dynamics. These multifaceted developments highlight the dynamic and precarious nature of international relations amid ongoing military confrontations.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Overview The presenter starts by expressing good wishes to the audience and mentions feeling better than the previous day. They hint at important upcoming weeks with Trump entering the White House soon. The chapter outlines various topics that will be covered, including recent news on strikes, maps, and catching up on missed content from the previous day due to an unexpected interruption.
• 00:30 - 01:30: Gas and Economics Discussion The chapter discusses recent developments regarding gas supply to the EU, featuring statements from Slovakian leader Robert Fico and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. Additionally, the chapter includes insights from an interview with Richard Connelly concerning the economic conditions in Eastern European countries.
• 01:30 - 03:00: Ukraine-Russia Conflict Updates In the chapter titled 'Ukraine-Russia Conflict Updates', the discussion revolves around recent developments in the ongoing conflict. The focus is initially on the pipeline into Slovakia that Ukraine has recently cut off, exploring its implications for Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union, including potential long-term effects. The conversation also delves into the presence of North Korean operatives involved in the conflict, particularly in the context of KK maps and strikes. The intention is to provide a broader perspective on certain areas while discussing these developments, starting with the strikes instead of the maps.
• 03:00 - 04:30: Discussion on Drones and Technological Impact The chapter discusses recent drone and missile attacks carried out by Ukraine into multiple regions of Russia, including places like Tula, where successful interceptions were recorded.
• 04:30 - 06:00: Russian Strikes and Effects This chapter discusses the strategy and effects of Russian missile and drone attacks. It explains how drones are used to distract defense systems, allowing cruise missiles to be more effective. The immediate impact of these strikes is observed overnight, but the real consequences, such as shortages of petroleum products and weapons, become evident weeks or months later.
• 06:00 - 07:30: Maps and Strategic Positions This chapter discusses the impact of artillery and munitions on front lines, emphasizing the significance of monitoring the aftermath of large explosions to assess their influence. It also highlights the role of fiber optically controlled drones in modern and future battlefields, suggesting their growing impact based on observations from a Russian source.
• 07:30 - 09:00: Ukrainian Military Strategy The chapter discusses the Ukrainian military strategy, highlighting the importance of technological advancements in warfare. It mentions the use of thermal images and fiber optic drones by Russian forces, which are effectively used for targeted strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles. The author stresses the urgency for Ukraine to acquire similar drone technology to counteract these successful Russian operations, emphasizing the significant role technology plays on the modern battlefield.
• 09:00 - 10:30: Manpower Issues and Mobilization The chapter discusses the challenges and limitations of using radio control drones in environments like underground areas or large buildings. It highlights the advantages of fiber optic drones over radio control drones in such scenarios due to the ability to maintain control and communication without signal interruptions.
• 10:30 - 12:00: Poov Mine and Economic Impact The chapter discusses the use of advanced technology like fiber optic-controlled drones in areas with significant underground infrastructure, such as Odessa and Poov. These drones are advantageous because they do not lose control or feed due to radio frequency disruptions when navigating underground environments. The discussion highlights the strategic importance of these drones in regions with vast underground networks.
• 12:00 - 13:30: European Political Tensions The chapter titled 'European Political Tensions' discusses advancements in drone technology as evidenced in recent footage. The footage features both standard and thermal video showing fiber-optically controlled drones impacting vehicles. The discussion emphasizes that these drones have practical implications in real-world scenarios, indicating a shift in technological capabilities and strategy. Following the footage discussion, the narrative transitions to exploring changes observed on maps, suggesting a broader geopolitical context.
• 13:30 - 15:00: Gas Transit and Geopolitical Implications The chapter 'Gas Transit and Geopolitical Implications' highlights the ongoing conflict and territorial changes involving Ukraine and Russia. Key locations include the Ukrainian capital and areas under Russian occupation since 2014. Recent developments show Russia gaining ground, with Suriak Maps indicating that NES Kuni has effectively come under Russian control. This underscores the fluid and dynamic nature of territorial control in the region.
• 15:00 - 16:30: Slovakia-Ukraine Dispute The chapter titled 'Slovakia-Ukraine Dispute' discusses a map showing the current status of Ukraine's territorial gains from their 2023 counter-offensive. The speaker points out that certain areas are marked in red, indicating recent changes or gains. However, there's uncertainty about the accuracy of these indications, suggesting it might be a coincidence. The speaker leaves it up to the audience to draw their conclusions and references a previous discussion on the topic from an earlier video.
• 16:30 - 18:00: Reflections on European Union Harmonies The chapter titled 'Reflections on European Union Harmonies' discusses the presence of Russians in a specific area, evidenced by footage of a Russian national flag in a region that has experienced consistent conflict and destruction. The narrative includes mapping references and updates from previous observations, contributing to the understanding of territorial changes and tensions.
• 18:00 - 19:30: North Korean Soldiers in Ukraine The chapter discusses the current situation in Ukraine, focusing on the area of Surak in the north where two critical roads have been cut off. The Russians have made a significant push from Novar, marked by movements on the map and red checks. This is a critical area to monitor as Vova Sila is at risk of being enveloped, aligning with Russian military tactics, while Ukraine is determined to maintain its hold.
• 19:30 - 21:00: Discussion on Captives and Geopolitical Nuances The chapter focuses on the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the southern region, highlighting the strategic importance of controlling this area. There is a significant discussion on the attritional nature of war and the protracted strategies used. A noteworthy point is the decision made by Ukraine, as reported by journalist Yuri Bsov, where President Zelinsky has allegedly taken decisive action, although the specifics of this decision are not detailed in the transcript.
• 21:00 - 21:30: Conclusion and Closing Remarks The chapter titled 'Conclusion and Closing Remarks' reflects on strategic decisions regarding military personnel deployment, particularly the decision to direct new recruits to brigades instead of seasoned combat units, emphasizing the value of public discourse. The speaker echoes sentiments expressed by 'tagam UA,' underlining the necessity for transparency and open dialogue to drive change, drawing on the metaphor 'sunlight is the best disinfectant,' to highlight the importance of bringing issues to light. The overall tone is one of optimism and acknowledgment of successful positive changes brought about by such transparency and dialogue.

Strategic Positions Fall - Critical Mine Closes | U.S. Wants Change: Is It Enough? - Ukraine Update Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 ghetto Legends I hope that you're having a fantastic day and I will say today I'm feeling a fair bit better than I did yesterday and hopefully this trajectory keeps going and we get better and better for the next few weeks it's going to be a big couple of weeks as Mr Trump of course comes into the White House this time next week but of course today we have a lot to catch up on uh not only from today's news about strikes and Maps but of course what we missed yesterday because I had to run off camera and maybe stick my head in the toilet bowl
• 00:30 - 01:00 so we'll go over of course the gas and of one good thing that has delayed us till today is there's been more come from Robert fito the leader of course of Slovakia and the leader of Ukraine President Vladimir zalinski about gas into the EU but I'm also going to share with you from uh our do Richard Connelly of course who the interview about economics and Eastern European economies uh was with which will be linked below
• 01:00 - 01:30 you'd like to see that it's only a couple of weeks old but I've asked him about the pipeline that Ukraine has cut off running into Slovakia and what effect this will have on Russia on Ukraine and the EU and potential long-term effects too so we'll go over that we'll go over more evidence of North Koreans operating in KK maps and Strikes as we normally do but with the maps I want to add a little bit of perspective to a couple of areas also and we're going to start with the strikes it's going to say we start with the map but we'll start with the strikes
• 01:30 - 02:00 now Ukraine has had large missile and drone attacks into multiple regions of Russia overnight so there was drones go into Tula overnight and this is just a video of one of them being successfully intercepted but there were multiple strikes there's also strikes on oil facilities around angles as well and in Brians a chemical plant has gone up in flames and this is reportedly from attacks storm Shadows with a mixture of
• 02:00 - 02:30 drones and we will see this the same as how Russia does missile and drone attacks drone waves to come in distract some of the ad and then you send your cruise missiles in so we've seen multiple strikes overnight what is the effect of these well over the next couple of days if we do see large effects I will share that with you but the real effect of strikes comes in the weeks or months after when we get an idea of are there shortages of petroleum products are there shortages of weapon
• 02:30 - 03:00 systems like when we saw those massive spectacular bangs of artillery uh Munitions and other sorts of Munitions going up we said well we see the spectacular massive explosion wait a few weeks and we'll get an idea if it's going to affect the front lines that's the best way to measure this but I talk a lot about fiber optically controlled drones and how they are having a large influence on the battlefield and battlefields in the future so this came out from a Russian page and I'll show
• 03:00 - 03:30 the footage in a sec second thermal images with the ability to switch to daytime camera were delivered to fiber optic drones uh from this not exactly new technology but for this drone of course it is a novelty expect full more full high definition footage of strikes on then Ukrainian armored vehicles it's from a Russian page remember Russians are operating the most amount of fiber optic drones on the battlefield at this point in time and I think it is in Ukraine's interest to try and get that as soon as possible seeing how many successful strikes we are seeing with the
• 03:30 - 04:00 but this isn't just novelty this ability to switch between I think this is going to be more of an effect on a fiber optic drone than it may be on a radi control drone radio control drones if you're flying along and you choose to go into a large um say uh underground area whether you're down into a mine you're into a building radio controls that's where you have a lot of limitations not just in a little bit but I'm meaning like a long way in a building you have Li itations
• 04:00 - 04:30 there because of radio frequencies and the power of it where fiber optic control drones do not have that and I've spoken about the amount of underground areas in areas like say uh Odessa we know that there's massive underground areas underground areas we saw in marap in Buck moot in a divka the mine sitting around poov that the ability to switch between this could be very effective when going underground where a fiber optic control drone will not lose uh its feed and and you can see this footage
• 04:30 - 05:00 isn't fantastic of this but you can get a somewhat of an idea it hits this loaf vehicle here but and on the footage you can see both the uh like normal video very dark and then the thermal video too and you can tell the typical outline here of the fiber optically controlled drones you can see this footage being shared so I think that's not just novelty I think that has real world effect now let's go onto the maps and have a look at what is is changing so of
• 05:00 - 05:30 course we have Ukraine the Santa the capital of ke red Aries occupied since 22 the purple occupied since 2014 the red check indicating Russia a ground that Russia has made in the past 24 hours but all but one area and this is a little bit cheeky so we come down VI NOA Sila now what did we share yesterday suriak map said Surak Maps has said that NES Kuni in here has effectively come under Russian occup
• 05:30 - 06:00 and we said this map may not want to show this because this is turning back the gains that Ukraine made the costly gains in their 2023 counter offensive now you can see the other gains here are in red check there's another red gain in here but it's not indicated if we step back and then to today buy red check which should indicate a today's game could this be incorrect could it just be a coincidence well I don't know I'll leave that up to you we did say that yesterday go back on the video so let's
• 06:00 - 06:30 have a look at this and how do we know that the Russians are there well we have this footage here of a Russian national flag being flown in the destroyed area here of course there's been fights all through these both ways that is right down in here again it's not marked in check and we have thein of Sila Surak map today of course this is in this exact area see where this Cuts back in on this road and up around so he showed that yesterday so he's not showing it
• 06:30 - 07:00 today but Surak is showing in the north further down where these two roads have been cut off here showing that the Russians have had a suly push in this direction from Novar which we see on this map there is some red check today so this is an area that we really really do need to keep an eye on as vova Sila is currently getting enveloped we know that's the way Russians like to fight but also Ukraine will not want to leave
• 07:00 - 07:30 this Regional hub for the south at this point in time so there'll be a real battle over this we believe so just keep that in mind but before we move on to the maps I want to talk about one great decision that Ukraine has made we talk a lot about attritional war and attritional War protracted War Doctrine on this channel and tarami UA I think one of the best um bloggers throughout this entire conflict has said according to Ukrainian journalist Yuri bsov president zalinsky has reportedly halted
• 07:30 - 08:00 sending people to new brigades redirecting recruits instead of experienced combat units if true this is an excellent decision it is an excellent decision uh a good reminder why public discussion was necessary and tagam UA brings up the same point I do if you want to have change it needs to come to the Forefront and there's no better disinfected than sunlight or sunlight is the best disinfectant however the quote goes and I believe this is true and I would say that he has been very success uccessful in this positive change
• 08:00 - 08:30 because this change is in line with the tral Warfare Doctrine because what you want to do is let experience proliferate through out units so you put new guys in experienced units that unit should never drop below the quoted 70% strength should never drop below that because if it does you're just losing experience you have new recruits go in there new conscripts go in there and experience is allowed to proliferate and grow rather than pulling guys out of units and just re-raising completely new brigades which we have seen the failure of like the
• 08:30 - 09:00 155th with 1500 plus guys walking literally walking out of the unit but one thing this doesn't solve is it doesn't solve the Manpower problems that Ukraine is having so National Security advisor under Biden of course Jake Sullivan who people believe honestly believe he's working for the Kremlin and that's just ridiculous but because if you have any criticism that's apparently what you're doing but he says we have to recognize that Manpower issues has become more acute over the past year we didn't hi hide our position on that but
• 09:00 - 09:30 let's see what happens in the future we've made it clear that Manpower is indeed a concern in Ukraine which they will have to address but in the end it's their Sovereign decision now of course this is talking about very low recruitment numbers uh difficulty conscripting mobilizing and of course that that age of mobilization is at 25 not at what the US would like to see drop down to 18 but there are acute Manpower issues this isn't just caused by weapons not being deled it can be
• 09:30 - 10:00 caused by poor outcomes on the front line as we see that moving further and further we can see also the attitude of some of the recruiters uh and some of the territorial guards who go and grab these guys literally off the street can all of this has an effect on this so it's not just the US to blame so let's talk further about then mobilization ages and recruitment problems Mark Waltz former Greenbay and combat veteran in Afghanistan who he's going to be then uh under Trump as National Security advisor
• 10:00 - 10:30 so similarly I'm showing you from Biden and now from the Trump uh Administration suggested the expanded draft eligibility would help Ukraine overcome a shortage of troops Ukraine has persistently struggled with Manpower while fighting The full-scale Invasion saying one of the things that we'll be asking of the ukrainians is they have real Manpower issues their draft age right now is 26 not 18 he's somewhat incorrect because it's down at 25 but it's just a it it people get things wrong all the time I
• 10:30 - 11:00 don't think a lot of people realize that they could generate hundreds of thousands of new Soldiers the thing is with this and he knows this is that this is still going to take in my opinion a minimum of 12 to 18 months and I think General jalus who is incredibly popular um was completely correct when over a year ago he said we need to mobilize 500,000 now or at least it was rumored that he had said that then he goes it's about seeing the front lines stabilized so that we can enter into some type of
• 11:00 - 11:30 deal and I say the reason in this is because if the front isn't stabilized and the front is moving in Russia's favor why at this point would Putin negotiate and if he did come to the table to negotiate why would it be the front line sitting right now whilst he's still advancing so these are all things that need to come into consideration there's a hell of a lot of considerations here and you can't just have your own considerations so we have of course not a war mapper but we have deep State up until the 14th of January
• 11:30 - 12:00 they have occupied a further 123 km squares now one thing I want to say in this is I think there's this idea that these advances are just through open paddocks a couple of tree lines and some Villages these kilometers are not just through open paddocks and no man's land this is through fortified defensive areas through incredibly important areas every meter every kilometer here the gains we saw that went from ad Diva to
• 12:00 - 12:30 now where the front line is currently at this point this is not just through paddocks this is some 55 km minimum of advancement through multiple defensive lines this isn't just through nothing as some would like to paint the picture of this and this is further going to be seen when we zoom in now on CA Cove and add some further perspective to the map so what we can see here chevchenko there is then a Russian advancement from s to all the way toward enia now before we
• 12:30 - 13:00 get into what a video I want to show here deep state did report that Ukraine did take back some of the ground here being shown by this movement on the map today okay ignore just north of here for a second and what I say about this advancement is not just through Open Fields we get footage like this this is coming out from Russian soldiers said to be on the andri front which andrika is this next major town here of course coming from chevchenko at this point and
• 13:00 - 13:30 you can see that these aren't just Open Fields this is Major fortified dug in reinforced positions that are being taken underground this is not nothing this is very significant and it's areas like this that are coming under control and the problem is now that they're under control if and when Ukraine can launch a Counterattack they're going to have to go back through those positions that now Russia is occupying yes they may be facing in not the best Direction for things but it may
• 13:30 - 14:00 lower its efficiency and Effectiveness but it's not going to then be zero so let's have a look on this today and of course we have dashn now this movement up here was being shown a couple of days ago by Surak and it's just saying M ground out dashn just to the south of where we see where that Dam went down and of course just north of here in slovianka deep State Ukrainian map is showing that there is Russian advancement in this direction also now we'll further move up poov we can see on
• 14:00 - 14:30 five different axes here where Russia has made an advancement I believe it's one axis there not going to be soldiers remaining down in here at this point in time if there are they have been surrounded so this is probably one axis it's probably four so yes no salonia Pani and zeleni now showing that Russia has successfully then taken over the rail and roadway one of these into bov I've seen many people saying Russia's not going to fight through poov they're going to bypass it and force
• 14:30 - 15:00 Ukraine to withdraw out of here because as soon as you C get caught in an urban fight you're going to have significant losses so maybe that is the plan on this front but there are some important updates right on this area now we have said for a few months now this coal plant is incredibly important and so are you can see the dirt spoils some of like up here some in poov itself these are incredibly important but I believe it is
• 15:00 - 15:30 this one right here which is incredibly important to uh the Ukrainian economy of its coking coal the ability to produce steel and we get this today from the KE independent quoting Reuters Russian troops continue approaching the city of poov Ukraine halts the extraction of coke and coal near the city they've all stopped working now there's no production there they're only working on the surface the mine produces Coke for oh sorry coal for Coke production needed
• 15:30 - 16:00 in steel making which is Ukraine's second largest export after agriculture it's owned by this steel maker here and was the only one in Ukraine producing coking coal so it's the only one producing cing coal but it's the second largest export which is steel after agriculture this is incredibly significant according to trade data export of Steel uh products totaled nearly 2 billion in the first 8 months of 2024 Ukrainian steel makers could
• 16:00 - 16:30 have produced up to 7.5 million metric tons of steel by the end of 2024 losing poov C could set back production to 2 to 3 million tons a year so taking that down to a third to a quarter of what it may be that is very significant when it's your second largest export and is also critical if the line gets drawn the the Border Gets redrawn behind this this at some point that Russia will occupy of
• 16:30 - 17:00 course this incredibly important area and the um resources that are there so Russia will gain that and Ukraine will lose that if they can occupy it and this is why I've said Ukraine may choose to collapse this mine on withdrawal if they withdraw out of here so that is important to take into account and this goes back to my thing of these are not just open empty fields that are moving it's fortified positions it's critical resour ources and of course it's less
• 17:00 - 17:30 and less leverage if there is negotiations in a week's time which I don't think there's going to be because I just don't believe either side is ready to come to the table and I think that there's not enough cards on Ukraine's side to get a decent even a reasonable deal at this point in time and I don't think Trump will settle that but the alternative is years more fighting tens if not hundreds of thousands more killed and no guarantee there is no guarantee that things are going to improve I think likely things
• 17:30 - 18:00 are going to actually deteriorate so maybe Trump's advisor are pushing him in that direction we'll know in about a week we can see Surak Maps look he's showing a lot of similar updates here but he's not showing that this road and train have come under control I will say if the Deep stat is saying it I agree that it has but here is another critical update so towards malania we've spoken about right where my cursor is there is a major intersection where does this intersection go well it comes from poov mad all the way that that leads then through constantina and down to toret
• 18:00 - 18:30 and this has shown just some advancement in this axis but on the suriak maps and I'll say suriak is very reliable and corrects mistakes when he's incorrect he's shown this that the Russians have had advancement down this secondary Road here to this intersection effectively cutting it off Russian army one of the livestock complexes in Northeast that they have after 48 Hours reached this road it's not confirmed the Russian for were able to fully establish themselves there is
• 18:30 - 19:00 certain they are still operating which confirms that Ukrainian Army is no longer present in this section so the connection between pop constan has been cut through this road this is very very important that this is cut and I believe if Russia do choose to bypass poov that udash is the first area which they'll want to get and of course cutting off these roads and push on here and this road being one of those other critical ones but I don't believe there'll be any push to further go around poov until toret completely comes under Russian
• 19:00 - 19:30 control which depending on the map may have come under control today so let's have a look at this before we move up into the north so we see tette so what we can confirm is was there Russian advancement in this direction absolutely yes seen by this map now soldiers operating down in here likely that this has closed up now what we see by surric Maps situation today front during the last two days Russian army took full control over the district fora and the
• 19:30 - 20:00 adjacent tacon 98% of the city is now under Russian control he is showing basically what the gray Zone shows here as red zone so again we'll wait for this to be confirmed but can we confirm those advancement in then the North and the South well we know in the north potentially in the South so this could be the kicker for further movements in and around poos so tetk by Surak Maps which the the um uh how reliable Surak
• 20:00 - 20:30 has been I well I don't believe anything to there's multiple sources on it or photographic jaoc evidence but it's looking that way move up into chiv y now no changes shown on this map of course there was map changes shown on yesterday's map some important things in here though is many different pages are reporting that shv y's defenses are currently crumbling remember this is the last of the high ground and it leads in into lower ground down into areas like
• 20:30 - 21:00 Kos Bak Chas that's where those Rolling Hills helps your artillery this is a very critical area so wait out on this axis we may see more um assets deployed in to further push on this front line CH after 8 days of combats Russian army took control over the refactory plant near the center of the city so down in this area now I should say they took control back over it I believe this was under control at some one point then came under the ukrainians had a
• 21:00 - 21:30 successful push there had it back under control so I think this is going back and forward but this again is one of those areas this isn't just Open Fields if you look at the lay of the ground here this is an incredibly important area now no changes up in the Northeast on any of the maps then I want to come into V chance and show just the sheer level of Destruction up in here but this tells us something as well that one of my uh followers one of my friends on telegram all my friends and my followers who has pointed out so we see this
• 21:30 - 22:00 footage of V CH and this is what you get when you're firing to and 3,000 kg bombs fighting everywhere from hammers to everything like um hammer missiles to Fabs is just complete Devastation absolutely nothing standing and this is what we have said about areas like Cel do these don't look like this where we saw that grind through everything was looking like this at one point and we get an idea of how fast things have moved through areas down in the South and the east because it's not looking like this compared to then a year ago in
• 22:00 - 22:30 the East and things all looked like this or up in the north where things are further but this is what verun here has pointed out why are people surprised this is how Russians fights they don't have to fight an Insurgency and this is one thing we have said is a pro if you will about protracted attritional war is then it moves so slowly that those who will push back are either killed or leave so when you occupy an area the
• 22:30 - 23:00 amount of behind the lines insurgencies uh or um um people that may act as like uh provocators behind the front line to Target or call in targets or blow things up is greatly limited and that's why we've seen much less of that later in the war in occupied territories than we saw in the beginning around hon and this is why it may actually be easier for Russia to occupy these areas than if
• 23:00 - 23:30 they took an area very quickly and everyone was remaining there you've basically killed everyone physically or spiritually to people have left because this I can't stay and leave or physically or the people remaining are on your side so that's just what I wanted to point out there in VCH so let's go over the gas and of course we have yesterday and today and between days it's even got a little bit more crazy we'll just add some more to this
• 23:30 - 24:00 and we'll go over what Richard has said but there's basically been a lot of online arguments between Robert fito of course the prime minister of Slovakia and president zalinsky from Ukraine that Slovakian president called the unreliable called Ukraine an unreliable partner and accused president zinsky of blackmailing European leaders for support at a parliamentary meeting on January the 10th he said zalinsky goes around Europe just begging and blackmailing others asking for money and many see that there's a lot of blackmail going on with turning off some of these
• 24:00 - 24:30 Taps and as well asking for a lot of money while we see the situation that is then deteriorating F fito my God claimed that zinski disrupted gas Transit agreement between Russia and aaban that would have benefited Slovakia ke terminated Russian gas Transit on January the 1st as we saw that's when those contracts finished F said Slovakia could hold its humanitarian Aid to Ukraine cut or cancel social benefits for Ukrainian refugees and cease emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine he also suggested using
• 24:30 - 25:00 Slovakia's veto power over EU decisions as leverage against ke it has to stop he added the was sometimes fed up with zinski and this is one of the things is of course Slovakia hold EU and NATO veto powers that said the majority of the other NATO and EU countries are not with slak in this so just because theoretically they can doesn't mean that practically they can also but they still hold a lot of power here and there's sort of this blackmail going both ways
• 25:00 - 25:30 or at least holding things hostage for Ukraine holding then gas hostage for Foo holding further support hostage as well oh my God I keep saying fito fito I keep reading it that's the problem he then described Russia as a reliable energy planner stating Russia has never deceived us unlike Ukraine he also recalled a 2009 incident where he claimed Ukraine's leadership refused to supply Zak with gas during a crisis referring to it as quote typical ukrainians so let's go over a little bit
• 25:30 - 26:00 more here and this is one person from foo's party which is the young social Democrats and an open letter to zalinski zinsky selfless assistance does not mean in any case that the state which is linked to this Aid has the right to take action against the state which has shown willingness to help Ukraine is not only criticizing Slovakia but the whole political West including the US the US is the is at the level of about 180 B in Aid uh zinsky says that only half was
• 26:00 - 26:30 directed to Ukraine the rest was used differently imagine the audacity that they got directly almost $100 billion so he's saying that the audacity to call on this and say what is happening and criticize it when you've already got handed $100 billion he even had the courage in the subject podcast in this context he pointed pointed out corruption on the part of his current most important partner so pointing at corruption in the US slovar has been helping Ukraine during the last year in accordance with the valid program declaration the government in practice this means that only humanitarian and
• 26:30 - 27:00 non-military and other non-military Aid was directed to Ukraine however any help is expression of selfless and voluntary solidarity because we nor any other country in the EU or NATO actually has any obligation to help Ukraine from membership in these International organizations remember Ukraine is not in NATO the EU are they on a path to membership potentially they say irreversible path I don't think there's irreversible path to anything unless anything is signed the argument that a smaller volume of Aid to Ukraine means
• 27:00 - 27:30 denial of our membership was simply invented by opposition politicians seski can thank Slovakia Us and other states of the political West for any volume of assistance provided to Ukraine I refuse to be part of a contest in which states um to see who deserve due sorry see who donates more I refuse to see Ukraine take any aid for granted or for something that does not deserve any gratitude and this is something we've seen the UK and Germany point at as well is you still need to take not stuff for granted and show some gratitude as well
• 27:30 - 28:00 I forgot I think it was I think it was um who's the knobhead with the hair from the UK my mind is failing me you know exactly who I'm talking about uh who even he said we've just handed you this money you can't just move on and ask then for more I I have said that I think at this point in time zinski is actually having a net negative effect on the informational space than a net positive maybe amongst you know in uh Echo Chambers but I think both in
• 28:00 - 28:30 Ukraine and around the world actually at this point was net positive massively for the first few years now I think people are actually finding it really really difficult with the constant of this and this is where it's springing up in more conservative countries like Slovakia or conservative compared to some of the other states in the EU uh I refuse to let Ukraine take steps against the states that help is it a reward for help so you help us and it's like a reward this procedure in gas Transit was agreed uh with Ukraine at the highest level thanks to this
• 28:30 - 29:00 agreement no Russian but Slovakian gas would pass through Ukraine so yeah somewhat um if Ukraine ever wants to be part of the EU we will demand reliability and adherence to agreements it's not meant either wrong or good it's thought to be rational again this you'll hear holding EU and NATO being like we have V if you want to be part of this you have to be a good partner and sort of bend the knee to a degree and that's happening both ways will not change opposition artificially created
• 29:00 - 29:30 politicians journalist or actors Slovakia will continue to have a balanced approach on foreign policy no member of the EU and NATO can do whatever they want if someone wants to be part of this Society he must follow the basic formal and informal rules otherwise he's not ready full stop and wherever and whenever this war ends the EU and NATO is going to have a lot of friction and a lot more friction I believe than before it if there is division or even at worst breakup this is huge win for x and Putin and some of
• 29:30 - 30:00 these countries May then fall into the orbit of say Russia in my opinion in the modern times you cannot be an independent sovereign country unless you're a major nuclear power you have to be part of some Alliance like NATO or Pricks both economically and or militarily and if these countries divide off who is going to be the most likely geographically located partner that could Supply some security both economically energy and militarily of
• 30:00 - 30:30 course zalinsky has pushed back on this and there's a bit of like Twitter beef going on of course uh Foo is all on Facebook it's good that the's prime minister FICO has finally returned from his vacation at luxuous hotel in Vietnam uh and is now in Bratislava for him personally it must be challenging switching from living in luxury to now trying to fix his own mistakes so put a personal de here what I'll say seninsky you live in a bit of luxury as well it was an obvious mistake for fso to believe that his shadowy schemes with
• 30:30 - 31:00 Moscow could go on indefinitely we offered our assistance to the people of Slovakia during their adaption to the absence of Russian gas Transit what we don't know the exact numbers on this it was rumored to be 500 million but uh there has been Slovakian numbers coming in say but it's going to cost in the billions but fzo arrogantly refused many in Europe warned him that doing nothing and waiting was not an option now he's resorting to PR lies and Loud accusations to shift blame away from himself onto someone else what I'll say with this line living in Glass Houses massively the
• 31:00 - 31:30 real problem is that he bet on Moscow not his own country not United Europe and certainly not on Common Sense from the beginning it was a losing bet I don't think this I I don't see fito or Orban as these buddy buddies with Moscow I think that they are nationalists they want the best and the cheapest for their energy and their ability to remain competitive but furthermore that they don't want to ruin that relationship there with Moscow because where do you think that energy comes across from but
• 31:30 - 32:00 I also think and this is going to become more and more relevant to the Future that they go we we put traditionals values very highly and we are more in line with those values maybe of the Kremlin around Society than maybe that we're seeing in Western Europe and we will turn maybe a blind eye to things if we have an energy and competitiveness around the world that's how at least I see it we hope that further diversification of energy sources in Europe cooperation with the European commission and the implementation of
• 32:00 - 32:30 President Trump's policy to increase American gas supplies to the continent will help address the challenges caused by the short sidess of certain European figures but what we know is LNG that has to be put on a ship pressurized bought over then un liquified or what however you do that is significantly more expensive than just pushed across but what this does is it makes Donald Trump very very happy and what does zinsky need to do he TR needs to try and make Donald Trump as happy as possible especially when he's asking for more
• 32:30 - 33:00 support So before we go over what has become new of this let's go over what of course Dr Connelly has sent me across now I've blanked out some of this but it was just a personal message here on the gas cut off my brief thoughts are as follows one it was expected that both Moscow and ke had been pretty clear for well over a year that the deal wouldn't be extended they gave both sides time to plan uh with Ukraine having to plan for Less Transit fees approximately 1 to2 billion annually which will will be
• 33:00 - 33:30 replaced by Rising taxes in Ukraine and foreign aid and Russia has been had time to think about how it would transport gas to central European markets and still buy pipeline gas such as Austria Slovakia and Hungary two for Russia if the gas does not find another way to mark it it could lose around $6 to8 billion in export revenues annually that's export revenues not taxes so the pain will be felt by
• 33:30 - 34:00 gazprom rather than the Russian Ministry of Finance this won't have much of an impact on Russia's ability to finance the war so saying it's going to be more the private company one of the biggest companies in the world of gazprom not the Ministry of Finance itself although these are somewhat interl I believe number three but Russia will be looking to get its gas to Market and is exploring other routes options include Slovakia buying gas in Russia then sending it through Ukraine this way it
• 34:00 - 34:30 would get the gas to it could get the gas and Ukraine could say that it was Slovakian gas transiting Ukraine not Russian and this is exactly what then one of the people in um Robert fito's uh party had said that it is Slovakian gas so if it's bought there it's only piped across no no no it's Slovakian gas or not then Russian gas so it's bought in so the sakin are buying it that moving it across not buying it at the other end
• 34:30 - 35:00 does that make sense in a similar vein the Ce Central and C Central and Eastern Europe countries could buy aabani gas which is then sent through Ukraine via Russia in practice it would be Russian molecules but the contract between the Cee and aan with Baku then form an agreement of its own with Moscow these are effectively swap agreements if no swap agreement is reached expect tensions between Ukraine and the central European uh what was it Central and
• 35:00 - 35:30 Eastern European countries to rise there are big changes in the Austrian government taking place and a lot of pro-russian sentiments there the same is true in Slovakia and Hungary that's three EU states where clear shifts towards Moscow underway well Hungary has been in that position from the start Slovakia has already warned that it will cut electricity supplies to supplies to Ukraine a serious threat given the destruction of the Ukrainian energy greed by Russian attacks of of course Slovakia would lose some export revenues
• 35:30 - 36:00 uh but might see it as a price worth paying five Russian gas still flows to Europe through the Turk stream a pipeline across the Black Sea through Southeastern Europe and in the form of LNG of course in ships Russian exports of which to Europe reached record levels in 2024 number six European spot Market Gas Prices rose in the first few days reaching their highest level in 2 years before dropping a little over the past uh last few days a long way of 2022
• 36:00 - 36:30 Highs but it's still much higher than the pre-war average a prolonged cold snap could drive these prices higher hope that all makes sense the en energy Dimension is always is very interesting as the West has tried to hit Russia there but with mixed success happy discuss in Greater detail a later Point Shadow Fleet LG product projects nuclear power plants Etc so if you'd like me to go over this at length with Dr Colony himself please let me know and the full podcast to this will be below but like we have shared before that long shortterm this may have an effect
• 36:30 - 37:00 longterm it could actually backfire on Ukraine because if the northstream was to open up back up if the pipelines that have been turned off running through Poland open back up if turkstream can increase their abil their flow capacity and all that gas still flows into eastern central western Europe that all flows through but what it has done is it has forced now a bypass of Ukraine and that Transit is gone so short term
• 37:00 - 37:30 it may be positive longterm many have said Ukraine has actually shot thems in the foot here and has forced themselves into buying then uh LG at a much inflated price after the war and I speak about this and we have seen this from the German afd party Alice wadell sorry if that's incorrect the afd has it own candidate for Chancellor for the first time in its history now we don't know if the afd will get back in but we are seeing it sort of seems like is getting the old crew back together now what I
• 37:30 - 38:00 will say not bad 45 but this is why you don't watch mainstream you watch Willie she has said we will put nordstream back into operation with which was met with Applause he also said when we're at the helm we will tear down all the wind turbines down with these windmills of Shame which Rin turbines if you actually look at from the beginning resources to the energy out and then then being then bought down and bloody disposed of
• 38:00 - 38:30 they're not green energy at all it's a scam she's correct about this um and of course put functioning nuclear power plants back online of course Germany has turned off their nuclear power plants so this as we're seeing with many conservative governments that go away from what is seen as green energy of windmills of Shame as she says and resort to nuclear power but also of course buying gas back from Russia through the destroyed nordstream pipeline that was BL up by we don't know who but we would know who if it wasn't
• 38:30 - 39:00 who we know it was you know I think I know that you know um she also threatened to restrict academic freedom should I say what we will do when we are charge we'll close all gender studies and throughout all these professors uh she she complained at University in Germany where being turned into a queer woke training grounds again this resonates with a shitload of people that share this idea about universities and how Academia here is getting just watered and watered and watered down
• 39:00 - 39:30 could be very very popular but let's focus on the gas nordstream back opens Turk stream Ukraine could be left in the middle buying much more expensive LNG or buying Russian gas after the war piped back in because I don't know if Russia's going to sign a deal but we have some further developments on this Robert fzza again on Facebook and open letter to President Vladimir zalinski your decision to stop Transit of gas through Ukraine towards Slovakia and other subscrib causes extensive damage to Ukraine itself Slovakia especially to the EU it
• 39:30 - 40:00 provokes diverse reactions which contributes neither to bilateral or multilateral raise ships division here I do not intend to respond to your statement on Sunday the 12th because I am not escalating the tension anymore I want to concentrate fully on solving the situation related to gas Transit stop as the Prime Minister I have different opinions in several areas as you as you presently above all I do not believe in the strategy that the continuation of mutual Bloodshed in the war in Ukraine
• 40:00 - 40:30 leads to strengthening the position of Ukraine in possible peace negotiations so basically saying is continuing this war strengthening Ukraine's position at this point in time and he's saying he doesn't agree with this in all my foreign travels I emphasize the need for an immediate end to fighting I support existing peace plans and suggest that peace negotiations take place at any level in Slovakia I also have a different opinion about your's decision to stop the transit of gas through Ukraine my attitude is not alone in Europe although there may be some silent
• 40:30 - 41:00 Partners on this too cuz if you stick your head up if a nail sticks his head up it'll get hammered back down that's what we have seen of Robert fito although I don't consider it completely decisive that the Slovak Republic loses by stopping gas Transit annually about 500 Mi uh the EU and most decisive influence on your decision about the competitiv of the European Union the organization you are applying for so Ukraine is saying Ukraine you're applying for the you and you are directly affecting our competitiveness
• 41:00 - 41:30 that we can veto this and it may not make people happy but what does this do it makes Trump very happy because they have to buy LNG the price of gas has risen therefore more cash flow and I believe a lot of this is being done to impress Trump but again if gas is significant expensive more energy then businesses can move offshore out of the EU where labor is already very expensive in spirit I discussed with the relevant member of the European commission Commissioner of energy I won't try to
• 41:30 - 42:00 pronounce this and his team decisions at this meeting confirm the seriousness of the situation and for this I appeal to Ukrainian side to actively participate in further negotiations in the work of separate working group created for this purpose and in my opinion though the EU the majority EU are way further on Ukraine side than their own member than Slovakia or Robert fito's side theoretically fito may be able to cut some of this but on in real life the pressure that the other states can put on him is immense zalinsky has responded
• 42:00 - 42:30 back to this okay come to keave on Friday so again yes 34,000 likes reached 1.8 million people I don't know here I I think many many people are getting turned away from this and I think from reading through the comments on fito's post and how others are feeling about this I think a lot of people are agreeing with fito about this and it's not that all the lakian people agree with with um zinsky
• 42:30 - 43:00 and they're all against fito in a democratic country yeah it's awfully unpopular okay so we will see where remember the front line is only one war here you have the Frontline War you have the hybrid War which everyone is participating in even though say we're not participating in the war everyone is involved in the hybrid War we have the energy War uh and then we have even the informational war and all of these are incredibly important for winning a war or having a better outcome in the war I
• 43:00 - 43:30 don't think we'll see a winner if that makes sense if the EU were to divide even if one country leaves the EU and NATO I would see that as a huge Victory further than even occupying territory because it weakens the state of these now North Korean troops something we have spoken about something we have said we think it's very likely but as far as concrete evidence it's been very very limited and Ukraine has said zinski has said that over 3,800 have been killed or wounded in action we have said well where is the evidence of this this and it was very convenient when it was said no no one was then alive of that amount
• 43:30 - 44:00 even if 1% was then of course captured PW it would still be large numbers is in the 10 still Ukrainian Defense Force have captured the first North Korean servicemen who fight for the Russ in K region this is from the sbu we've received indisputable evidence the dprk's participation in Russia's war against our country we're talking about two North Korean soldiers one of whom was captured on the ninth uh by Special Operations and another by paratroopers immediately after being captured the
• 44:00 - 44:30 foreigners provided with necessary care and stipulated by the Geneva Convention remember Geneva Convention is very specific about then looking after PWS but also it's a little bit more gray around posting photographs and of course there's interviews with these PWS which in my reading of the of the Geneva Convention PWS cannot be used for any sort of propaganda now is this in public where this gets great in this is is this in public interest of information or is this propaganda and it's a bit of column A a bit of column B so it's hard to know
• 44:30 - 45:00 if this is seen completely to Geneva or just the medical care as Geneva it's hard to know what we do know is both sides use PWS massively as propaganda tools the PW is not speak Ukrainian English or Russian no Capital here the communication with them is carried out through interpreters of Korean cooperation with South Korean n their intelligence service to capture the foreigners had Russian military ID issued the time of another person with the registration of Republic of tuva in the Russian Federation the other had no
• 45:00 - 45:30 documents at all so this is one of the things the ID given is from the Republic of Tua who are very Asian well they are Asian people they they look Asian too that's why it's so hard so why many are saying that this is still at this point in time I don't know with the amount that claimed to been killed wound there should be massively indisputable evidence of this I think it's very likely the fighting I think it's very likely these North Koreans is it Beyond Reasonable Doubt is it Beyond
• 45:30 - 46:00 some doubt I'll leave that up to you now the prisoner W confirmed the testimony of the fellow Soldier he gave some of the answers in writing because he had an injured jaw so he had an injured jaw couldn't speak so he had to then deliver the answers in writing of course this is all convenient it's it's hard to know but I'll share from one of my guys and of course we see this image here communication carried out through interpreters in green cooperation with South Korean intelligence services but one of my guys said quick thoughts on the ghosts of Pon Yang of course the
• 46:00 - 46:30 North Korean soldiers I refused to listen to the rumors until I heard about dprk PWS through my own network if they're providing intelligence about Russia or North Korea and frankly I expect a lot of interested parties a cutting them some pretty sweet deals for intelligence we have never seen their faces for obvious reasons until maybe this and while I'm not certain on their return policy for North Korean captives I remember the USSR was quite harsh on his own who ended up in Nazi PW camps a
• 46:30 - 47:00 lack of patriotism or other offenses saw them knocked off sent to labor against or otherwise punished I can imagine a similar outcome for North Korean PWS so I imagine those in captivities are aware of this and cutting deals and of course South Koreans Americans ukrainians many many parties here as my contact here points out are very interested in the intelligence that they could be given but with their face being known or even a swap back that limits all of this and going back to North Korea so we don't know and I
• 47:00 - 47:30 don't believe these guys would want to show their faces for their families and what may happen in a military dictatorship like North Korea so again this is all still up in the air but it will become more and more known over time legends you have a fantastic day look after yourselves and I'll speak to you tomorrow thank you bye-bye