Trump, US decline, and global chaos - Robert D Kaplan interview | US politics | The New Statesman

Summary

Highlights

• US influence has waned, as China now dominates the Asia-Pacific. 🇨🇳🇺🇸
• Presidential instincts have diminished in quality since the Cold War era. 📉
• The American bureaucracy under Trump declined, and more chaos is predicted in future governance. 🏢
• Economic decline is showcased by the US's reduced share of world manufacturing from post-WWII highs. 🏭
• America's debt crisis is mirroring the downfall of past empires, threatening future stability. 📉💰
• With Russia and China also on a decline, a power vacuum might give rise to global chaos. 🌐
• The role of elite decision-making in politics has been lost, leading to extreme political candidates. 🎭
• Kaplan suggests radical leadership could potentially reverse America's decline. 🔄

Key Takeaways

• The US's ability to shape global events has weakened significantly, marking a decline in global influence. 🌍
• The decline in presidential quality has impacted American foreign policy decision-making. 🤔
• Under Trump, the government's bureaucracy saw a deterioration in quality and experience. 🏛️
• America's economic position has significantly shifted since World War II, impacting global power dynamics. 💸
• Despite America's decline, other global powers like China and Russia are also experiencing their own declines. 📉
• The potential for chaos increases without dominant global powers to stabilize international relations. ⚠️
• The decline of American power may open paths to radical leadership, possibly reigniting American democracy. 🔄

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 03:00: Introduction and America's Decline The chapter titled 'Introduction and America's Decline' discusses the notion of the United States being in a state of decline by the start of 2025. It highlights how the U.S. can no longer dictate or organize global events as it once did. The text specifically mentions the Middle East, which remained relatively peaceful for decades under American influence, with the U.S. quickly intervening in conflicts such as the Arab-Israeli wars to bring them to a close. The chapter suggests that this capability is diminishing or no longer present.
• 03:00 - 05:00: Presidential Instincts and Quality The chapter discusses the shift in global power dynamics, particularly focusing on how America, once dominant in the Asia-Pacific region, has seen its influence wane as China rises. It highlights America's weakened global position, economic challenges, and societal decadence compared to its past. The narrative underscores that American power has historically been rooted in two main aspects, one of which is often overlooked: presidential instincts. These instincts and the decisions made by a president play a crucial role in shaping American power and policy.
• 05:00 - 07:00: Bureaucracy and Empire The chapter discusses the decision-making process in the context of major issues such as war and peace, specifically focusing on the Cold War era. It highlights the role of bureaucracy in handling these matters and how certain decisions are deferred to higher authorities, such as the White House, when they cannot be settled at lower levels. The National Security Advisor plays a pivotal role by presenting the President with various options for decision-making.
• 07:00 - 10:00: Trump's Second Term and Bureaucratic Decline The chapter discusses the decline in the quality of U.S. presidential leadership since the Cold War, despite having a number of excellent presidents from Harry Truman to George H.W. Bush. It notes Jimmy Carter as one of the weaker presidents in terms of foreign policy instinct, challenging recent positive retrospectives about him. The narrative suggests a downward trend in presidential aptitude, particularly in foreign policy, citing figures like Clinton and George W. Bush.
• 10:00 - 14:00: Economic Decline and Debt The chapter titled 'Economic Decline and Debt' begins by critiquing the caliber of recent U.S. presidents, labeling Obama and Clinton as mediocre. In contrast, Trump is portrayed as a world historical figure due to his uniqueness compared to previous leaders. The discussion suggests a decline in the quality of presidential instincts over recent decades. Additionally, the text hints at an overlooked aspect of foreign policy that constitutes a significant portion of it, though this is not elaborated on in the provided excerpt.
• 14:00 - 17:00: Decline of Global Powers and Consequences The chapter discusses the extensive bureaucracy of the United States, especially in the context of its role as a global power since 1945. It elaborates on the various levels of administration, ranging from secretaries of state and defense to numerous deputies and assistants, highlighting the complexity and depth of the American bureaucratic system.
• 17:00 - 21:00: Chaos and Anarchy in a Leaderless World The chapter discusses the decline in the quality of the bureaucratic structure running the Empire, particularly during Trump's administration (2017-2021), and anticipates a further decline. The narrative contrasts Trump's appointments with those of previous presidents, including Biden, implying they were of lesser quality with the exception of an unspecified period.
• 21:00 - 27:00: Solutions and Historical Parallels In this chapter titled 'Solutions and Historical Parallels,' there is a discussion about Donald Trump's perspective and potential differences in a hypothetical second term as President of the United States. The narrative highlights Trump's initial lack of experience with government processes and personnel despite having served as President for four years. It mentions his expectation of quick results through simple actions and acknowledges a learning curve from his first term.

Trump, US decline, and global chaos - Robert D Kaplan interview | US politics | The New Statesman Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 you write of America in Decline can you set out  for us why this the start of 2025 is such an   important moment in that story the United States  cannot order events in the world the way it used   to the Middle East was very was relatively quiet  for decades under American tutelage when there was   an Arab Israeli War was the Americans who quickly  ended it essentially that's no longer the cas
• 00:30 - 01:00 case the Americans used to dominate the Asia  Pacific now China does so America's place in   the world is weaker uh than it used to be  America is poorer than it used to be and   America is more decadent than it used to be  I think as American power or the exercise of   American power is based on two things one which  most people grasp but not enough which is it's   B based on presidential Instinct the president  makes choices a number of choices a day on issues
• 01:00 - 01:30 that of great issues of War and Peace and also  many issues that the bureaucracy cannot decide   upon and gets kicked up to the White House when  the National Security advisor says Mr President   here we've got like four choices to make on  this and you make it now during the Cold War
• 01:30 - 02:00 we had a number of excellent presidents from  Harry Truman to George HW Bush Jimmy Carter who   just died it was actually the weakest of those  presidents in terms of presidential Instinct on   foreign policy despite all the great things that  have been written about him in the past two weeks   he was the weakest um since the end of the Cold  War um the pre the quality of the presidency has   declined in terms of presidential Instinct we've  had Clinton George W bush who may have been the
• 02:00 - 02:30 worst president of the last few decades um Obama  who was a mediocrity Clinton was a mediocrity and   then there's Trump you know who is a world  historical figure because he's so different   than anyone else so the quality of presidential  Instinct has gone down significantly then there's   the other thing that nobody writes about or talks  about but which is 80% of foreign policy and
• 02:30 - 03:00 that's the bureaucracy not just the secretaries  of state and defense but the uh the deputy   secretaries the under secretaries the assistant  secretaries of which there are many the deputy   assistant secretaries America has been an Empire  since 1945 and it's this layered bureaucracy
• 03:00 - 03:30 that runs the Empire and under Trump as I argue  in the piece this bureaucracy had went downhill   dramatically between 2017 and 2021 and is and  is set to go down dramatically again because   the quality of people that Trump appoints whatever  you may think of the quality under Biden another   mediocrity and others was much higher under under  all the previous presidents with the exception of
• 03:30 - 04:00 trump yeah what's the difference in Trump's second  term between I mean he's already been president   for four years what's different this time around  well he's he's got some experience he knows that   he because when he came in the first time not only  had he no experience with the presidency but he   didn't even know anybody who is in government  essentially you know he had no knowledge he   thought he could press a button and things would  happen and that's not how it works uh what's
• 04:00 - 04:30 amazing is how weak the presidency is as a general  institution I mean it's made for weak managers not   for uh World historical figures like Roosevelt  and Lincoln who are the exceptions to the rule so   Trump didn't know that Trump and this time around  Trump is more experienced he's more vindictive um   and he you know he's got people around him many  of whom have no experience in the bureaucracy
• 04:30 - 05:00 many of whom hate the very bureaucracies they've  beeno they've been empowered to run um and so uh   we're going to see a decline in American power in  the 80% that's run by the bureaucracy as far as   the presidential Instinct decisions that could  go in either way Trump is very unpredictable   because he has no well-thought out world viw I  mean you talk about the political power but you're
• 05:00 - 05:30 also right about the economics in America at the  moment and and how that's in Decline tell us about   that well in 1945 when World War II ended half  of the world's manufacturing capacity was in the   United States um and that lasted for decades it  it declined very gradually one of the reasons why   why you know Kissinger and Nixon could do so much  is because America was much more powerful then you
• 05:30 - 06:00 know now Amer America accounts for only 16% of the  world's manufacturing capacity then there's the   debt uh which is about $ 36 trillion and growing  dramatically at about a trillion dollars a year   and this and neither party neither the Republicans  nor the Dem Democrats have anywhere near the
• 06:00 - 06:30 maturity and fiscal discipline to deal with the  debt it's it's amazing I mean when you watch   Congress debate the budget it's like the last  days of ancient Rome I mean there is nobody in   the room who's even remotely responsible they just  want to spend and spend and spend um each party on   different things and this debt accumulates and  takes up more of the budget and there's less
• 06:30 - 07:00 money to spend on defense on social issues it's  like a building problem and as I lay out in the   peace this is how Empires decline over history  you know it's not you you know it's not just   ancient Rome it's you know most Empires throughout  history have decline because of economic reasons   and because of reasons related indirectly to  economic reasons if we're talking about about
• 07:00 - 07:30 an Empire falling you said that the US has been an  Empire since 1945 is its decline inevitable can it   be stopped if someone decided to it's absolutely  not inevitable I make two points in the piece that   America definitely is in Decline but also I point  out that China is in a steeper Decline and that   Russia is in an even steeper decline so decline is  relative America could Decline and yet its power
• 07:30 - 08:00 Visa Russia and China even under terrible  leadership could increase because it's   all relative there is no absolute here so we're  really facing a world where all the great powers   are declining and that as I point out at the end  of the piece will lead not to a fairer world a   better world but to more chaos I was interested  that you wrote that the US could be left in an   era of oil and gas of print and the typewriter are  you suggesting that there's sort of a sciance on
• 08:00 - 08:30 fossil fuels the resources that US the US has  that means that they can't get ahead of future   manufacturing these sort of new America was a  great um printon typewriter age Empire because   most of its history was under what I call the  greater print and typewriter age from the founding   fathers all the way to take a take a pick 1960s  1970s 1980s essentially then something happened
• 08:30 - 09:00 America became a pure democracy the founding  fathers were actually afraid of pure democracy   Madison was against it he wanted a republic not  a democracy all right what's the difference the   difference is in a republic the elites decide but  the people get to change the elites every four   years for decades the party leaders in so-called  Smoke Filled rooms behind the scenes decided   who would be the candidates for president and  though that was undemocratic and sleazy it
• 09:00 - 09:30 actually worked very well had the party leaders  made those still been in power in 2017 in 2016   Trump never would have been the Republican nominee  Jeb Bush would have been the Republican nominee   and he would have go gone on to be a a very good  president like his father not like his brother um   essentially see people forget all of this and  so now we have a pure democracy with primaries
• 09:30 - 10:00 for each state which means that the most extreme  person wins uh uh essentially because primaries   draw out the most extreme voters and so instead  of Elites deciding the two candidates um we have   pure democracy deciding it and the result has been  worse we've talked about the decline economically
• 10:00 - 10:30 the decline politically if we put that together  what does it mean for the US's place on the   world stage uh because China and Russia are also  declining and faster I think the US's place on the   world's stage will still be very very significant  but but not as significant as it used to be you   can say what you want about great Powers you can  hate them all this but a world of great Powers is   is a more stable world than a world where there's  no no great powers or very weaken great Powers
• 10:30 - 11:00 you'd have more for instance W without the United  States Navy over the last few decades you probably   would have had more Wars between India and China  because with the American Navy in the Indian Ocean   and the Western Pacific it essentially stabilized  the situation in many ways a lot of things like   this just wouldn't happen it's not a matter of  doing good it's a matter of preventing worse
• 11:00 - 11:30 things from happening let's say there is no other  country poised to take over from the US which   means that we end up I mean is there any chance  that you could end up with a more equal world   order if there's not one dominant power it could  be more equal but also more ineffectual I mean the   UN is equal and it's totally ineffectual I mean  that's the world you know um you the problem with   the UN is not the UN per se it's that it's you  know it's the fact that um France is a member
• 11:30 - 12:00 of the security Council and India which is much  more powerful and consequential than France is   not you know um but you know equality doesn't  lead to to capability necessarily so what does   a world without one dominant great power look  like a world of more chaos and Anarchy a world   of more Wars let's look at the Middle East for  for the past even before October 7th 2023 the
• 12:00 - 12:30 real problem in the Middle East is that it was  the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and there's   been no solution found to that collapse and  and without any Imperial overriding Force the   Americans are weaker less respected in the Middle  East the Russians are weaker you know than they   used to be in the Middle East China is interested  in terms of trade and economics but so far not in   great power military um political means the Middle  East has been on its own without great powers to
• 12:30 - 13:00 oversee the situation so to speak and that has  led to Warfare tremendous Warfare one thing we're   going to see probably I've been saying this for 20  years now everybody's saying it um which is that   we'll probably see a new regime in Iran uh so and  maybe even in 2025 certainly in the next few years
• 13:00 - 13:30 you you talk of a world of more more chaos is  this something that one of our listeners in the UK   should be worried about should should think about  the consequences in the future if if the US loses   its dominance yeah see chaos or Anarchy are words  that are overused in the media I mean the you know   if there's a crisis at 10 Downing Street there's  chaos that's all nonsense it's utter nonsense when   I mean chaos I I mean driving outside the capital  of kinaza and the Congo and there's no government
• 13:30 - 14:00 there are just militias with guns and roadblocks  I'm talking about the kind of chaos where people   don't worry about politics they just worry about  the safety of themselves and their children and   we'll see more of that I think we there's already  a lot of it but it's not written about because   it's beyond the radar screen you know essentially  you know it's almost a normal way of doing things
• 14:00 - 14:30 like Haiti is an extreme example so we read  about it but only occasionally what needs to   change to avoid that situation you said that this  decline wasn't inevitable that that it could be   corrected is there something that either the  Democrats or the Republicans have any interest   in changing no because uh Washington is in a  very decadent state it's controlled by money
• 14:30 - 15:00 and in Trump's second Administration proximity to  power proximity to the president will determine   how much money B multi-billionaires make they  won't have to go through the bureaucracy which   is how stable states do it you you know you have  to apply for permits you know there's a Security   and Exchange Commission one of the threats of  a second Trump term is that money has taken   over the presidency and all about it look at  Elon Musk I I mean you know it's not enough
• 15:00 - 15:30 that he's worth $50 billion or so but he has to  determine policy as well um so that's what I worry   about it's it's it's the effect of money in um in  Congress in the White House ironically the people   who are the most honest and the least wealthy and  the most hardworking are the very deep state that
• 15:30 - 16:00 everybody attacks you know um the Deep state is  actually very good it's made of clean cut people   earning regular salaries not from wealthy parents  and uh and often have extremely good judgment on   the parts of the world that they're experts on  the Deep state has been used to define people   who nobody knows who they are who are really  running things behind the scenes and that's true   because uh you know a great power needs a great  bureaucracy so what needs to change to avoid that
• 16:00 - 16:30 fate that you've laid out that possibility  when you get a slide like this where you can   identify the problems but you don't know what  to do about it um what needs to change is some   radical new leadership um and it's possible I'm  not discounting it completely that that you know   that the upheaval under Trump could give America a  new start because remember if you look at American
• 16:30 - 17:00 history we had the founders who were basic and  their sons who were the first six presidents   then there was a dramatic change with the seventh  president when Andrew Jackson replaced John Quincy   Adams and you CA you got in all these corrupt  ruun characters from the frontier which was   then Tennessee Kentucky and places like that  and the founders were absolutely shocked just
• 17:00 - 17:30 like the elite today is shocked at Trump you know  when they lost these Virginians and uh bostonians   lost control to these ruffe corrupt people from  the Appalachians essentially and it was corrupt   and it was free willing but over time it led to a  more Democratic Society and then we had other in   es I won't go into where um you had other  upheavals that were seen as the end of the
• 17:30 - 18:00 world at the time but in fact led to a rebirth  of American statehood so I don't discount the   possibility that just the very shock of trumpism  could lead to a new birth of American democracy