US-China Tariff War: What Will Southeast Asia's Manufacturers Stand To Lose? | When Titans Clash

Summary

The ongoing US-China tariff war poses significant economic challenges for Southeast Asia as Vietnamese and Indonesian industries, particularly textiles and solar, face increased competition from redirected Chinese exports. This has resulted in job losses and manufacturing disruptions across the region. ASEAN's strategy to counter these impacts involves trade diversification and strengthening local industry competitiveness. Nonetheless, the region continues to face pressure from both global superpowers, prompting further innovation and economic integration.

Highlights

• US tariffs redirect Chinese goods to Southeast Asia, impacting local industries. 📈
• Chinese technological advancements are key to their manufacturing advantage. 💡
• Indonesia's textile industry is declining due to competition with low-cost Chinese fabrics. 👗
• Malaysia's solar industry is threatened by US tariffs despite local manufacturing efforts. ☀️
• China is a major trade partner for ASEAN, offering both challenges and opportunities. 🤝

Key Takeaways

• Southeast Asia's economy is caught between the US-China tariff war, facing a flood of cheap Chinese goods. 🌊
• Chinese efficiency is driven by technological advancements and a labor force willing to work hard, not just low prices or dumping. 🤖
• Significant job losses are occurring in Southeast Asia, especially in the textile and solar industries, due to Chinese competition. 🚫
• Countries like Malaysia are being forced to reassess their manufacturing sectors in light of tariffs and global competition. 💭
• ASEAN is trying to navigate through these economic challenges by diversifying trade and enhancing local industries. 🗺️

Overview

The ongoing tariff war between the US and China is causing a significant shift in supply chains and market dynamics across Southeast Asia. Countries are feeling the pressure as Chinese goods flood their markets due to redirected exports. This scenario is creating both challenges and opportunities within the region, prompting a reevaluation of their economic strategies.

Chinese manufacturing prowess, driven by high-tech advancements and an industrious workforce, is leading to intense competition in various sectors such as textiles and solar panels. Southeast Asian manufacturers, in particular, are finding it hard to compete with the low costs and high output of Chinese-made goods. This has led to notable job losses in these industries across the region.

ASEAN countries are working to mitigate these impacts by diversifying their trade partners and enhancing the competitiveness of local industries. There is a strong focus on leveraging domestic resources and markets to sustain economic growth. Despite the challenges posed by the US-China trade policies, ASEAN strives to maintain resilience and seek new opportunities for economic development.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction: The Rising Tariff Challenges The chapter discusses the challenges posed by increasing tariffs under the Trump administration. As tariffs on Chinese exports rise, these goods are redirected to new markets. While there is concern about an influx of Chinese goods, opinions differ on whether this is beneficial or problematic for different markets.
• 00:30 - 01:00: Factory Competition and Technological Advancements The chapter discusses the intense competition faced by factories, particularly in Southeast Asia, due to China's round-the-clock operations and use of artificial intelligence. It highlights the challenges posed by Chinese exports and U.S. tariffs, which are putting pressure on these economies. The narrative also touches on the perception of foreign entities taking away jobs and exploiting factory resources, emphasizing the cycle of economic competition and technological advancements.
• 01:00 - 01:30: Impact on Malaysia's Solar Industry The chapter discusses the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on Malaysia's solar panel manufacturing industry, suggesting that it could potentially destroy the industry. It emphasizes the need for global awareness about the motivations behind the U.S.'s use of tariffs as a political tool. The chapter also questions how AEN will manage under the pressure from the world's superpowers.
• 01:30 - 02:00: Indonesia's Textile Industry Struggles The chapter discusses the challenges faced by Indonesia's textile industry. Although the sector is struggling, Asan highlights the importance of perseverance and mentions having a contingency plan (Plan B) to navigate these tough times. Despite facing adverse conditions, there is an emphasis on continuous effort and resilience, metaphorically described as swimming against the tide.
• 02:00 - 02:30: Chinese Technological Advancements in Manufacturing The chapter outlines significant technological advancements in Chinese manufacturing, highlighting key innovations and their potential impact on global industries. The narrative may focus on how these advancements position China as a leader in the manufacturing sector. Specific technologies or companies might be explored, along with the implications for competition and market dynamics.
• 02:30 - 03:00: China's Expanding Export Market The chapter discusses China's growing influence in the global export market, focusing on Streetex, a dominant textile company in Indonesia. Streetex employed 50,000 people and achieved significant financial success, with $1.3 billion in sales and an $85 million net profit in 2020.
• 03:00 - 03:30: Tensions in the Global Solar Market This chapter discusses the shifting dynamics in the global solar market, focusing on how the Chinese market has affected Indonesian suppliers. The narrative explores Tech's position as a major supplier in Indonesia and how the influx of cheaper Chinese products has influenced local businesses. Similar issues are noted among various companies navigating this evolving market landscape.
• 03:30 - 04:00: Challenges in the Automotive Industry The chapter addresses the challenges in the automotive industry by highlighting the impact of economic factors on related sectors like the textile industry. Specifically, it notes that from 2023 to the end of 2024, 60 Indonesian textile companies closed, leading to an estimated 250,000 layoffs. This context suggests broader issues affecting both the automotive industry and its associated markets.
• 04:00 - 04:30: Thailand's Automotive Sector Under Pressure The automotive sector in Thailand is currently facing significant pressure. The transcript mentions a substantial impact on the workforce, with an estimate of around 800,000 total workers being affected. Out of these, approximately 250,000 are specifically highlighted, suggesting critical challenges in employment and possibly reflecting broader issues in the industry.
• 04:30 - 05:00: The Rise of Electric Vehicles and Job Displacement The chapter discusses the rise of electric vehicles and its impact on job displacement. It highlights how companies are laying off employees, reducing work hours, and how this has become a political issue. The impact is not confined to the textile sector but extends to social and other sectors like logistics and housing.
• 05:00 - 05:30: Indonesia's Growing Nickel Industry The Indonesian nickel industry is expanding, creating opportunities for economic growth and providing competition to the textile industry, which faces challenges from cheap Chinese imports due to practices such as dumping.
• 05:30 - 06:00: ASEAN's Trade Challenges and Opportunities The chapter discusses the challenges and opportunities ASEAN faces in trade, particularly focusing on anti-dumping duties on Chinese products.
• 06:00 - 06:30: Conclusion: Strategies for Resilience and Growth The chapter discusses how new technologies within Chinese high-tech textile factories are enhancing operational efficiencies. Particularly, digital upgrades allow over 400 high-speed water jet looms to function autonomously 24/7. This automation enables quick detection of any malfunctions, supporting continuous operation and contributing to resilience and growth strategies.

US-China Tariff War: What Will Southeast Asia's Manufacturers Stand To Lose? | When Titans Clash Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 make with tariffs on the rise under Trump China exports are finding new markets we are about to be hit by a tsunami of Chinese goods when Trump does impose tariffs on Chinese exports then the goods that were originally supposed to go to the US will have to find new markets some welcome that others don't
• 00:30 - 01:00 i think it's crazy in China they do the factory 24 hours they use AI of course we cannot compete southeast Asian economies are being squeezed by China exports on the one hand and United States tariffs on the other foreign leaders have stolen our jobs foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories they do it to us and we do it
• 01:00 - 01:30 to them it will impact Malaysia solar panel manufacturing industry a lot it might kill off the whole industry mankind as a whole really need to realize the real motivation of the United States and the wrongfulness of using tariff as an instrument of political power against other countries with pressure from both the world superpowers how will AEN manage
• 01:30 - 02:00 asan's got a plan B in place we're now swimming against the tide but we've got to keep swimming
• 02:00 - 02:30 things are not looking good for one of Indonesia's largest textile companies Streetex black armbands worn by employees and management alike send a desperate plea
• 02:30 - 03:00 saveex relax at one point Streetex was the largest textile company in Indonesia employing 50,000 people directly and indirectly according to Indonesian media in 2020 the firm did nearly $1.3 billion US in sales and posted a net profit of $85
• 03:00 - 03:30 million four years later its fortunes have turned what happened tech is the biggest supplier for fabric in Indonesian market when the market uh frauding by China fabric of course it will also impact to uh site yeah so the problem in tech is almost the same with another another uh company because the
• 03:30 - 04:00 market is uh fraud by China uh fabricex is not the only Indonesian textile company in crisis according to data from the Indonesian Filament Fiber and Yarn Producers Association from 2023 to the end of 2024 60 textile companies closed and an estimated 250,000 workers were laid off
• 04:00 - 04:30 the total workers that uh impact uh we count about 800,000 250,000 workers they
• 04:30 - 05:00 lay off and the rest is they uh stay at home some people they cut the work hours some company they cut the they uh they work yeah it became to political issue yeah many many of our parliament talk about this thing yeah also because the impact is not only in textile sector the impact in social and other sector also like uh logistic also like uh housing and many
• 05:00 - 05:30 many many many sector they impact this the Indonesian textile industry is facing intense competition from China in two ways first in the domestic market the price is very cheap yeah china can sells with lowest price I think because uh the dumping we can look in US in Europe in Vietnam in India many many China product they impose the
• 05:30 - 06:00 anti-dumping duty for the China product yeah so I think all over the world is the same problem with the China dumping secondly Indonesia's textile exports are also being challenged we know that some brand like Mango Zara Nike Adidas H&M also yeah they have to cut the production in Indonesia because they have also to compete with China product in US and also in Europe yeah
• 06:00 - 06:30 inside China's high- techch textile factories new technologies are helping companies achieve greater efficiencies this company's digital upgrades enable over 400 smart high-speed water jet looms to operate automatically around the clock any malfunctions can be quickly detected and
• 06:30 - 07:00 resolved by humans using computer code instructions no mechanical tools or human hands are needed according to Chinese government data China's textile and garment exports hit
• 07:00 - 07:30 293.6 billion US in 2023 making it the world's largest garment exporter these technological innovations are now being pushed out across the
• 07:30 - 08:00 country fore speech
• 08:00 - 08:30 i think it's crazy in China they do the uh factory uh 24 hours uh they use the AI they have a black factory and of course we cannot compete but we have to try we have to try
• 08:30 - 09:00 textiles aren't the only sector Indonesia worries about as Trump imposes tariffs on China policy makers are bracing for more headwinds you wrote in an article and I I like to quote you you said "Southeast Asia is about to be hit by a tsunami of cheap Chinese goods flooding its markets." Can you explain i think we are about to be hit by a tsunami of Chinese
• 09:00 - 09:30 goods for various reasons one is the slowdown in China itself so domestic demand is slowed down but more importantly when Trump does impose tariffs uh on Chinese exports then uh the goods that were originally supposed to go to the US will have to find a new uh market new markets and uh the obvious markets are uh in this part of the world so we are afraid that this is going to
• 09:30 - 10:00 increase whether in simple toys homeware party accessories or in the high-tech arena of batteries solar panels or electric vehicles China leads in all these industries and more
• 10:00 - 10:30 let me go home at the beginning of 2025 it was reported that China's exports rose 10% in 2024 to hit a record high of over $3
• 10:30 - 11:00 trillion china's trade surplus with the world which is the amount its exports exceed its imports reached almost $1 trillion a New York Times article noted that when adjusted for inflation China's trade surplus last year far exceeded any in the world in the past century even those of export powerhouses like Germany Japan
• 11:00 - 11:30 or the United States chinese factories are dominating global manufacturing on a scale not experienced by any country since the United States after World War II china has been accused of uh over capacity which I believe is a wrong term i would say the better term is a great efficiency of the Chinese uh production especially in the manufacturing area why
• 11:30 - 12:00 because China has built up probably the best and the most extensive interconnectivity highways railways seapports you name it secondly China has built up the most efficient and the most powerful electricity generation and transmission network and thirdly I think which is rarely understood or analyzed by western
• 12:00 - 12:30 countries is that the Chinese nation in terms of the quality and the discipline of the workforce is probably the most powerful workforce in the world people in China prefer to work long hours they want to work they sometimes work more than one job for many people in China most of the people I know of have more than one job because they want to work they want to perform they want to make more money for their
• 12:30 - 13:00 family so the Chinese productivity and the efficiency are not because of what some western countries accuse China of of for example uh dumping goods to other countries etc it is because of the very unique and special combination of factors uh now available in China the United States of America countries like Great Britain for example they
• 13:00 - 13:30 deliberately choose to focus on finance rather than manufacturing industries because they thought manufacturing industry is dirty is pollutive uh is labor intensive etc etc they came up with all excuses to get rid of their own manufacturing uh industries china made the right decision to focus on manufacturing jobs to the extent that we believe without manufacturing you really cannot achieve
• 13:30 - 14:00 sustainable wealth for the nation it wasn't very long ago when Malaysia celebrated the opening of Jenko Solar one of China's leading solar
• 14:00 - 14:30 manufacturers and also one of the world's largest in 2015 Jeno Solar spent $800 million US to build a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Paneang it created over 1,000 jobs and had significant multipliers for the local economy we invested in the country and is one of the largest private investment uh in from China to one of the belt and
• 14:30 - 15:00 road regions the Malaysia factory that we have in Pinang is one of the largest in this region jenko shut down its Malaysia plant in 2024 and it isn't the only one scaling back china solar companies Risen Energy and Longi Green Energy Technology Company also shut large parts of its operations it's pretty bad uh I think uh some of
• 15:00 - 15:30 the company they just started to uh expand their Southeast Asia facilities including Malaysia uh which to actually capture US market suddenly it was hit I think in a short uh notice that the assumptions of tariff no longer uh available for Malaysia so it will impact Malaysia solar panel manufacturing industry a lot uh it might kill off the whole industry to understand how Malaysians are being impacted by American policies
• 15:30 - 16:00 we have to wind the clock back to the early 2000s the US was once a stronghold of solar module manufacturing accounting for around a quarter of global solar module shipments in the early 2000s but that all changed around 2010 when Chinese manufacturers gained comparative advantage dozens of US solar factories
• 16:00 - 16:30 shut down the Biden administration tried to rebuild the US solar industry with generous subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act which channeled $430 billion US to clean energy industries in November 2024 the same administration announced tariffs on solar imports from Southeast Asia of up to 271% citing reasons of anti-dumping and
• 16:30 - 17:00 anti-subsidity these tariffs expanded further under the Trump administration solar manufacturers in Southeast Asia are almost all from China as Chinese companies possess unrivaled technological advantage now some US politicians are saying that Chinese companies are using Malaysia as a cover to dump cheap solar panels in
• 17:00 - 17:30 the US what's your view on that i think it's quite political and there there has been always this accuse uh since the beginning the actual value that Malaysia should bring to add value into this manufacturing process is the example the silicon wafer is coming from China then you need to process it to become a final solar panel there are a lot of semiconductor process need to apply into making the wafer into the cell and then making into a assembly and test assembly
• 17:30 - 18:00 into working solar panel so there are still many processes involved that Malaysia workforce can add value i don't think it's fair to say that product is still made in China because a lot of manufacturing proc a lot of test and assembly manufacturing process are source of material already being localized these factory closures aren't just happening in Malaysia chinese solar manufacturers also announced shutdowns of their plants in Vietnam and Thailand
• 18:00 - 18:30 terrorists of solar panels started before Trump and really a tragic story in several ways one the technology actually came from America chinese have learned to do it cheaper and pretty high quality and that actually has been the formula of why the world's hits the end of cold war has gone through a boom of consumer goods america inventing China learning how to produce manufacture with other Asian countries cheaper that's
• 18:30 - 19:00 benefited so many people and solar panels of all things facing climate change don't you think the world would benefit from cheaper but good solar panels so it's a tragedy of both consumerism and for the climate experts point out that while some industries are worried that China exports are putting them out of work us tariffs have an even more detrimental impact
• 19:00 - 19:30 well people around the world are crunching numbers right now after President Donald Trump unveiled a range of tariffs on imports into the US dominating the list are many from the Indo-Pacific china faces a 34% reciprocal rate now this is on top of an existing 20% tariff taking the total to 54% in Southeast Asia Cambodia tops at 49% followed by lower rates for Thailand Indonesia Malaysia and the Philippines
• 19:30 - 20:00 while some exemptions partially shield semiconductors which is Malaysia's largest export category to the United States nevertheless these new tariffs will still adversely impact many of our Malaysian industries including textiles furniture rubber and plastics trump sees my deficit huge therefore to make America great again I've got to bring that number down this actually is
• 20:00 - 20:30 quite false thinking but we need to assuage this by having China and other Asan countries who have a surplus America start to figure out how do I buy enough American goods and they've been doing it for some time but frankly to get Boeing planes that's like a three-year wait uh armaments depends on whether you're allowed to buy araments what else does America have to sell and that's where I think fundamentally America the CEOs have looked themselves
• 20:30 - 21:00 in the face how much have they really hollowed out the industrial capacity of America rayong Thailand is known as the Detroit of Asia over the last 40 years Japanese investors have poured over 1 billion US
• 21:00 - 21:30 into the area building a formidable car export sector driven by Japanese auto brands and transforming Thailand from this to this over the course of four decades Thailand became Southeast Asia's largest car production hub and its auto industry was a key driver elevating its economy to middle income status but that once formidable engine of growth is now
• 21:30 - 22:00 under threat in 2024 a number of news headlines shows how much the sector is in trouble associate Professor Krian Kry Tetakanon has been studying the Thai auto industry for more than 24 years
• 22:00 - 22:30 in 2012 in Thailand used to produce 2.4 million but last year just 1.4 million that's a difference of about 1 million cars so it must have a lot of impact on all the different car makers sure last year Subaru Suzuki uh decide to withdraw from Thailand and this year uh Nissan will close one factory
• 22:30 - 23:00 thailand's automotive production contracted nearly 30% in 2024 there are about a million people employed either directly or indirectly in the sector making cars for markets far and wide even reaching Brazil so what happened the Toyota industry export a lot since
• 23:00 - 23:30 2004 and the export is throughout uh several regions in in in in in the world like including the big market is Australia because uh they uh we export a lot of uh pickup trucks there and then in Asia in Africa and also some portion to North and South America the entrance of the BYD and other Chinese EV makers to the world market it has become adopt by several countries so those country
• 23:30 - 24:00 are also the destination of Thai export so once those demand were fulfilled by the new type of vehicle the demand for the Thai export become smaller chinese car makers have been accused of overcapacity take the electric vehicle sector it is a crucial industry for the clean economy with a huge potential in
• 24:00 - 24:30 Europe but global markets are now flooded with cheaper Chinese electric cars thai and Japanese automakers aren't the only ones feeling the pressure china's wave of EV exports is being blamed for factory closures in Europe and for hurting the profitability of US car makers china disagrees with these views globally green capacity is not
• 24:30 - 25:00 excessive but in dire of scarcity the problem now is not over capacity but over anxiety here in Thailand as some Japanese car factories shut new ones from China have opened in business tonight Chinese automaker BYD has opened its first electric vehicle plant in Thailand as part of the company's push to expand its reach into Southeast Asian markets the $490 million
• 25:00 - 25:30 plant has the capacity to build 150,000 vehicles a year with key components such as batteries to be assembled locally byd's new plant is in Rayong Thailand's car making capital that was built with the help of Japanese official development assistance over four decades the BYD plant has a size of almost 132 football fields cars made here are for
• 25:30 - 26:00 export as well as for the Thai market
• 26:00 - 26:30 byd said their factory created 10,000 jobs in Thailand thailand hopes to build on their existing auto industry know-how and become an EV manufacturing hub this factory is an important boost to those national goals
• 26:30 - 27:00 some Japanese car factories have shut down while some Chinese car companies have opened up do these new investments bring uh enough jobs to make
• 27:00 - 27:30 up for the job losses that has occurred when the EV makers like BY and others that they want to expand and they operate in Thailand the number of job that will be created I think it's will not cover because of two reasons the first is they are just starting their production it has not yet reached its full scale so the number of employment will not be high at this stage and the second is
• 27:30 - 28:00 about that technology the operation would be more automation it requires less parts so it require less coordination with the local supplier because of this I think the number of employment that will be created maybe may not be sufficient with the job loss the nature of the EV manufacturing process is just more robotics less people less parts and processes so
• 28:00 - 28:30 there'll never be a one for one in terms of job creation over 1,700 local small medium enterprises supply the Japanese automakers in Thailand many are thinking hard about reinventing their businesses to remain relevant the car is no longer the car that we used to drive it become electronics device and also some entertainment
• 28:30 - 29:00 my son just bought a EV BY and that's uh the first time I learned the you know the how the new generation they are thinking how they view the car this completely changed and now it's like everyone is struggling how to survive they need to change their strategy in products mix and investment strategy but as we I think everyone understand this like the supply chain of
• 29:00 - 29:30 the inter internal combustion engine like other vehicles it cannot change overnight so it it takes time and in the meantime this transition is painful yes no pain no gain in a different part of Southeast Asia China's massive EV sector is facilitating job creation on a grand scale
• 29:30 - 30:00 all this used to be forest about a decade ago now Suluesi is the world's top production center for nickel that is the critical ore that goes into the making of batteries in these Chinese
• 30:00 - 30:30 EVs here in this remote part of Indonesia Chinese companies dominate teach you local employment has boomed to
• 30:30 - 31:00 support growing nickel mining operations in just one industrial park Morowi 200,000 jobs have been created according to a report from American think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace the output of the workers in Indonesia supply nine factories accounting for over 40% of the global production of EVs this puts Indonesia at the center of new global
• 31:00 - 31:30 supply chains supporting renewable energy transition growing Chinese investments in Indonesia's nickel sector bring their own set of problems there's been some high-profile workplace accidents and deaths deforestation is also a perennial concern do you think that the benefits of the nickel industry outweighs the cost of
• 31:30 - 32:00 the environmental degradation brought by that industry i think this is very important questions yeah I think uh not many people understand how the mechanism of this uh mining activity in Indonesia yeah so if they want to use the forest or they want to mine the area inside the forest they have to get a permit from the government that's first yeah the second one once they are doing this mining and it's already completed they
• 32:00 - 32:30 need to do the reclamation and this is very important so not many I would say this uh NGO yeah the environmentalist is putting uh right and objective uh criticism yeah to the government so by reclamation you mean reforestation right yes yes the Indonesian economy makes about $ 34 billion US a year from the export of nickel products the vast majority of which go to China
• 32:30 - 33:00 chinese battery and EV companies have also announced plans to invest billions in Indonesia just like they had in Thailand indonesia has its trade struggles with China but these must be viewed alongside an accompanying windfall of inbound Chinese investment we have discussed trade friction uh with China leading to job losses and we've also discussed uh China investment into
• 33:00 - 33:30 Indonesia creating jobs yeah which of the two is larger no I think uh it's very difficult yeah to say okay this one is larger uh than the others of course we want to have an equal partnership mutually beneficial and respect to each other yeah which mean that I think you need to also put uh in place yeah uh the international regulation yeah regarding this area yeah we are open to any
• 33:30 - 34:00 investment you know we are open to any trading partner but I guess you know there are rules that we have in Indonesia there are rules that we adopted based on the international consensus like WTO of course we have to uh uh follow on that yeah so if there is a unfair trade yeah uh implemented by some countries Yeah and it's create a problem job losses in Indonesia of course we have to take
• 34:00 - 34:30 action but the questions is if this is due to competitiveness issue then you know we need to do the improvement inside china is very eager to uh promote FDI into other countries and traditionally for many years in a row aan countries have always attracted the largest amount of Chinese overseas investment for a variety of reasons proximity is one reason and we have free trade agreement
• 34:30 - 35:00 between us and we have a lot of historical present relations between and among us you name it so I think in the coming decades China will be a very important trading partner and also provider of capital and also provider of new technologies technological knowhow and expertise but on the other hand between any two major economic blocks for example China
• 35:00 - 35:30 versus Azan there are always some unpleasant experiences or failures for example or lack of success disappointments etc these are natural don't be surprised if they happen but the wisdom is always try your best to come up with ways to overcome these uh negative things and focus on the mega trend focus on the positive upside and the positive upside between China and
• 35:30 - 36:00 Azan is using a traditional Chinese term unlimited there is no limit to the upside of China AAN cooperation economies in ASEAN the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are being squeezed on the one hand rising China
• 36:00 - 36:30 exports are putting pressure on some domestic producers on the other hand terrorists from the United States have caused factories to shutter china because its domestic economy isn't growing as fast as it used to it will has to export and and it's also starting to invest in our region so the relationship with China is getting thicker actually more complex
• 36:30 - 37:00 chinese customs data showed that China's largest export market in 2023 is ASEAN with an annual value reaching $523.7 billion aided by apps like Lazada which is owned by Alibaba and Chinese e-commerce giants like Timu and Sheen Southeast Asia has seen an increase in imports of all sorts
• 37:00 - 37:30 of lowcost Chinese-made goods which compete with local manufacturers vietnam suspended the operations of Teimu in December 2024 thailand meanwhile has identified 58 products including steel and furniture as targets for anti-ircumvention duties the government has also proposed imposing tariffs on Chinese steel to manage lowcost imports and
• 37:30 - 38:00 protect local manufacturers Thailand also introduced a 7% value added tax on imported goods below $40 this move led to a 20% reduction in imports in this category mostly from China malaysia is also strengthening its anti-dumping legislation china is obviously an export powerhouse we have been beneficiaries of
• 38:00 - 38:30 that in the sense that the range of products that Malaysian consumers can buy has been growing but I think the speed or the volumes that we have been seeing over the past couple of years has been increasing uh at a very significant rate and I think this is attributable to a couple of new factors uh that were not present before i think firstly we have to acknowledge that there has been a slowdown in the Chinese economy and also
• 38:30 - 39:00 Chinese consumer spending secondly I think there has also been uh challenge of overcapacity among Chinese manufacturers uh because of not just the slowing Chinese economy but because of tariffs that has been imposed on them mostly by the United States so as a result of these factors we do see uh you know that overcapacity being exported to parts of Southeast Asia including Malaysia asean's largest economy Indonesia has
• 39:00 - 39:30 also banned e-commerce firm Teimu over fears its small enterprises could be destroyed the Indonesian government has said it was looking at imposing duties of up to 200% on some Chinese imports e-commerce is the mega trend it will really change and shape and reshape the way commerce will be done in different parts of the world there will be pains many of the smaller and the
• 39:30 - 40:00 medium-sized vendors may be under a lot of pressure many people may lose their jobs manufacturers may need to be reoriented for example all these are costs that will be incurred whenever you have a huge revolution or technological uh breakthrough and for the Azan countries rather than closing the door to highly efficient e-commerce platforms
• 40:00 - 40:30 or applications maybe the better way is to understand the change in doing business in how commerce uh is being done and embrace those platforms and applications that you may eventually choose with the purpose of increasing efficiency and productivity lowering the price for the consumers and eventually making living standards more affordable and uh quality of life more prevailable
• 40:30 - 41:00 for as many people as possible i don't think it is worthwhile to pick a fight with the emerging technologies we need to uh work together with ASEAN uh to have a a dialogue or have an engagement with China uh to say that you know we are worried about this of influx of goods uh and that we should discuss it openly to see what what are the
• 41:00 - 41:30 solutions that we we need to have i mean I I remember going through this when I was minister of trade in the same issue uh we faced with the China ASEAN free trade area and the conclusion was okay we need to increase investments of Chinese China here to produce here so I still I still think that's a valid uh argument but now we have a we we should come together as ASEAN and I think the the world has changed since um 15 years ago there's now e-commerce there's a lot
• 41:30 - 42:00 more other opportunities that can actually helpmemes to be part of the of the ongoing trade and investments that are going on between ASEAN and China but I do think uh we as ASEAN need to come together to you know it's better for us to do that to face China it is not just in Southeast Asia where there are concerns around Chinese exports chile Mexico Brazil and India have all imposed anti-dumping measures
• 42:00 - 42:30 on some Chinese exports the United States of America is the biggest export market for ASEAN economies in 2024 the US overtook China as Southeast Asia's largest export market but access to that market is under threat in the current Trump administration how can Indonesia deal with an increasingly protectionist USA i would
• 42:30 - 43:00 say we have a solid plan i cannot tell you but I think um I'm I'm quite confident we have a solid plan yeah we won't go into your solid plans but can you tell us a bit more about how Indonesia is trying to diversify its trade partners and deepen its trade relationships uh with other countries we are now have a ongoing discussion with EU yeah on the comprehensive economic partnership yeah so I think this is very important part of our strategy to do a
• 43:00 - 43:30 trade diversification especially with the Europeans yeah president Trump is a businessman he likes making deals he likes discussing deals i think Malaysia and Assan has to take a more proactive approach and what does this mean i think this would entail uh Malaysia uh putting certain value propositions or preparing certain value propositions that we can put forth uh to the Trump administration so for example
• 43:30 - 44:00 to show that Malaysia uh can be a good player in the critical mineral supply chain of which there are sources in Malaysia that can be procured we already have a critical minerals processing plant in Linus we should be I think open to more investments in this area china placed export restrictions on rare earth elements on the 4th of April 2025 as part of its response to US tariffs seven categories of rare earths
• 44:00 - 44:30 were placed on an export control list these are crucial elements needed for defense and technology several countries in ASEAN have large rare earth deposits and have repeatedly said that they are open to investments from all countries in the space the commitment from Indonesia is that we want our product to be freely sold to any countries
• 44:30 - 45:00 with so much pressure from both the world's superpowers should Southeast Asia be optimistic about economic growth in 2025 i believe uh we are quite resilient in in sort of navigating uh the uh the headwinds that are a lot of it is external we we need to focus uh if we can focus on our domestic uh homework and we have the domestic market as a base for our growth and if we can use our domestic resources to increase
• 45:00 - 45:30 the efficiency and competitiveness of Indonesia and create jobs I think we will still be able to grow at 5% i'm cautiously optimistic about Malaysia and also ASEAN's growth trajectory in the next 5 to 10 years i think the China plus one strategy will continue regardless of what happens in the United States and in fact I would say that what what is happening in the United States may give even more reason for global
• 45:30 - 46:00 companies to want to invest in ASEAN because of our stability because of our growing domestic markets because of our increasing incomes per capita and also the fact that we are seen as a region that is friendly towards all parties that's why uh you know the World Bank and the IM have IMF has projected that ASEAN as a whole would probably grow faster than even China over the next 3 years asan's got a plan B in place they've got to integrate more deeply
• 46:00 - 46:30 each other not take on Trumpian views they've got to work with willing partners who see the same thing whether in Asia or with the EU who are facing certain dilemmas as well so AEN has swam with the tide when globalization was strong post cold war Asan really moved fast we're now swimming against the tide but we've got to keep swimming