Weekly ASX Trades - 14th May2025

Summary

In this week's video, ASX Trader shares insights and strategies for trading stocks, commodities, and crypto. Emphasizing the importance of risk and reward, ASX Trader discusses the significance of choosing the right broker and leveraging market trends. Strategies such as capital rotation and evaluating market structure are highlighted, showcasing how to maximize profit by entering and exiting trades based on probability. ASX Trader also covers specific trades, like DIY and South 32, examining market indicators and technical analysis. The video concludes with tips on maintaining an optimal portfolio and insights into potential energy market reversals.

Highlights

• ASX Trader emphasizes picking brokers with low fees and CHESS sponsorship for asset safety 💰
• Capital rotation strategy showcased with DIY and South 32, explaining gains and avoided losses 🚀
• Importance of understanding market structure changes, like entering at bullish formations and exiting when risks outweigh rewards 📉
• Using market data over emotions to predict market changes and ensure profitable trades 📈
• South 32 trade setup detailed, highlighting undervaluation and market movement predictions 🔍
• Insights into diversifying portfolios and learning through community discussions 🗣️
• Energy markets potentially setting up for bullish turns, watch for confirmations 🔄

Key Takeaways

• Choose your broker wisely to save on fees and ensure asset protection 🔑
• Always weigh risk versus reward before trading ⚖️
• Use market structure changes to determine when to enter or exit trades 🎯
• Capitate rotation helps dodge losses and seize new opportunities 🔄
• Don't get sentimental about trades; move on if they don't meet your criteria 💔
• Consider both technical and fundamental analysis for insights 📊
• Weekly reviews and learning from experienced traders can enhance strategies 👨‍🏫
• Energy markets might be setting up for a bullish reversal 💡

Overview

In the latest ASX Trader session, the savvy strategist dives into effective trading techniques across stocks, commodities, and crypto markets. Emphasizing the importance of selecting cost-effective and secure brokers, he offers a glimpse into his personal criteria for choosing the best platforms to trade. His partner, Mumu, provides affordable fees that appeal to seasoned traders looking to capitalize on their investments without unnecessary expenses.

Throughout the exciting deep dive into trade tactics, ASX Trader shares real-life examples from his portfolio, like the DIY and South 32 trades. His approach to capital rotation illustrates how to maximize returns by shifting investments based on market dynamics. By focusing on when to enter and exit trades, he ensures that his strategy always favors the trader, likening it to playing the odds intelligently like a casino.

The session wraps up with a look at potential market shifts, particularly in the energy sector. ASX Trader explains the signs of a possible bullish reversal, urging investors to keep an eye on structural and volume cues that could indicate market readiness for a rebound. Engaging with community insights, he showcases the value of learning from seasoned players and maintaining flexibility in portfolio management for ongoing success.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Disclaimer and Introduction The chapter starts with a disclaimer emphasizing that the content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. The speaker is introduced as a certified financial technician and an elotician, with a background in education, preparing to discuss market-related content.
• 00:30 - 01:00: Sponsored Segment: Partnership with Mumu This chapter introduces a sponsored segment, announcing a partnership with Mumu. The speaker emphasizes the affordability and value of Mumu's brokerage services, highlighting features such as $3 Australian trades and 99 cent US trades. The speaker also alludes to additional important features they seek in a broker, such as whether they are 'chess,' though the transcript cuts off before completing the thought.
• 01:00 - 02:00: Criteria for Choosing a Broker This chapter discusses important criteria for selecting a broker. When choosing a broker, it is crucial to ensure that they are sponsored for asset protection, which allows the investor to transfer assets easily if the broker fails. A good broker should offer both Australian and international shares, as emphasized by the mention of Mima, a broker that meets these criteria. Additional considerations include the platform's ease of use. The chapter also briefly mentions a promotional offer for the academy involving Boomu.
• 02:00 - 02:30: Academy Launch Offer The chapter titled 'Academy Launch Offer' discusses a promotional offer for access to an academy for one month. It highlights the contents of the academy, including real-time examples of trade entries and insights into what others in the community are observing. Additionally, there is an option to join a free section of the academy, which provides access to various traders' charts and exclusive content.
• 02:30 - 06:30: Trading DIY: Analysis and Strategy The chapter titled 'Trading DIY: Analysis and Strategy' discusses various aspects of trading using a DIY approach. It begins by encouraging users to sign up for a free service offering a 7-day trial, which is suggested to be very engaging. The discussion then transitions to analyzing charts, with a specific focus on the concept of DIY within trading. The chapter is likely centered around empowering traders to conduct their own analysis and develop strategies independently, leveraging available tools and resources.
• 06:30 - 10:00: Capital Rotation Strategy The chapter discusses a capital rotation strategy involving Microsoft and uranium investments. It highlights a YouTube video and social media posts made by the speaker about their strategy. This strategy involved entering Microsoft at a specific point and seeing a significant increase from a dollar to A140. The speaker shares insights on when to sell, emphasizing transparency by sharing information on public platforms like ASX Trader.
• 10:00 - 15:00: Case Study: DY and NEM Trades In this chapter titled 'Case Study: DY and NEM Trades,' the instructor discusses the importance of staying updated with their social media posts related to ASX Trader Charts. They explain how to enable in-app notifications to receive real-time updates and never miss a post again. The use of an application to get these notifications is highlighted as a beneficial tool for keeping up with market trends and the instructor's insights.
• 15:00 - 20:00: Portfolio Strategy: Evaluating Opportunities The chapter titled 'Portfolio Strategy: Evaluating Opportunities' discusses the decision-making process involved in selling a stock. The speaker explains their rationale for exiting a position, particularly when a stock has grown significantly, in this case, by 40%. The key point highlighted is the increased risk versus reward once a stock has appreciated, leading to the decision to lock in profits. The chapter emphasizes the importance of evaluating the balance between potential risks and rewards when managing a portfolio.
• 20:00 - 25:00: Analysis of South 32 This chapter revolves around the analysis of South 32 and uses a trading metaphor to explain decision-making in investments. The main idea is comparing trading decisions to a balance scale, where reasons for buying or selling are 'weights' on the scale. If there are more bullish reasons (reasons to buy) than bearish reasons (reasons to sell), it tilts the balance in favor of buying. Conversely, if the bearish reasons outweigh the bullish ones, the decision is tilted towards selling. The summary concludes with a personal reflection about a recent exit from a trade.
• 25:00 - 35:00: SYR and NVX Analysis The chapter titled 'SYR and NVX Analysis' discusses the speaker's evaluation of reasons for shorting a particular position. Initially, reasons supporting the trade started to disappear, influencing the decision to reassess the position as it shifted away from being favorable. The speaker emphasizes the importance of stacking probabilities in one's favor, akin to being the casino, and notes that despite changes, the probabilities are no longer as advantageous at the current position as they were initially.
• 35:00 - 45:00: LYC Trade Insights This chapter discusses the fundamentals of trading, emphasizing the importance of probability in making trading decisions. The approach centers around entering and exiting trades based on favorable conditions, and the dynamic nature of supply and demand in markets. The chapter illustrates how demand influences trading decisions, particularly when prices are low. It also touches upon reasons for entering short positions and how both bullish and bearish market factors influence supply dynamics, drawing parallels to mining operations.
• 45:00 - 50:00: Portfolio Evaluation Strategy The chapter titled 'Portfolio Evaluation Strategy' discusses the mindset that every day you hold a portfolio, it's as if you are deciding to buy it anew. It emphasizes the importance of evaluating holdings as a trader, rather than a retailer. The chapter suggests questioning whether you would buy the current portfolio without existing attachments, focusing on where the stop loss would be placed and assessing the risk against potential rewards. The narrative advises that if buying now doesn’t align with your strategy, holding might not be wise either. The key takeaway is to always evaluate positions based on current market conditions and expected movement, ensuring that risks are worth the potential rewards.
• 50:00 - 55:00: Energy Sector Analysis: Oil and BPT The chapter discusses the future potential of the energy sector, specifically focusing on oil and BPT (British Petroleum). The speaker argues that there is a higher probability of the oil price facing resistance between the current price and $150, suggesting that it's more likely to reject and fall back. They analyze a hypothetical investment scenario where buying at $140 could risk a 26% loss if prices drop to the 'zag zone.' The chapter concludes that from this point forward, the risks seem to outweigh the benefits, as the situation shows more signs of potential decline (red) than growth (green), thus not fitting the speaker's trading strategy anymore.
• 55:00 - 57:00: Conclusion and Call to Action This chapter provides a conclusion to the previous discussions, followed by a call to action. The speaker demonstrates tactical planning through a real-life example, emphasizing its successful execution. Furthermore, they illustrate how to search for relevant information using specific keywords, which helps to locate prior mentions and discussions about the subject matter, thus reinforcing the chapter's main points.

Weekly ASX Trades - 14th May2025 Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 Quick disclaimer before we kick off guys. So, Master of the Markets and ASX Shadow myself is a corporate authorized representative of Sher Australia. And this information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Little bit about me. I've got a bachelor of education. I'm a certified financial technician and a certified level one elotician. All right, let's get into it.
• 00:30 - 01:00 Hi everyone, thanks for tuning in. Today's video is proudly sponsored by Mumu. Just a reminder from last week, we have now partnered with Mumu. Reasons for it being there's three major things I always look for in a broker to buy and sell my shares when I'm trading and that is affordability. Mimu offers $3 Australian trades and as little as 99 cents for US trades. So nice and cheap to get in and out. The other really important thing I always look for is are they chess
• 01:00 - 01:30 sponsored? That is for asset protection. So if for whatever reason the broker went down, I know the assets are in my name, so I can just transfer them somewhere else. And I look for that they have Australian and international shares as well. And Mima has both of that. So it covers all three major things that I look for in a broker. Uh and and most importantly, ease of use of the platform and things like that as well. So, we have our launch offer for academy. If you sign up to Boomu and fund your
• 01:30 - 02:00 account, you'll get access for a month to our academy. Uh, then within there, I'll be drawing from all things today around that. So, you can see why I entered trades and things like that and you can see firsthand what other people are seeing in there. Okay. So, the options are if you don't want to then do that one, make sure you do sign up to join free academy as well. So, in that free academy, you'll get access to charts of lots of traders and things like that as well. And we do offer a lot of exclusive things in that free section
• 02:00 - 02:30 as well. So, worst case scenario, make sure you sign up for free. Uh, and if you really want to, once you sign up for free, we do offer a 7-day trial as well, so you can test it out, and I guarantee you after 7 days, you'll be hooked. Uh, then after the 7-day trial, you can then sign up to the the Mumu Mumu offer as well. All righty. So anyway, let's dive into the charts and see what we've been looking at. So the first one I want to talk about is DIY. Okay? Because DIY was one
• 02:30 - 03:00 that you guys know I did a YouTube video about it a few weeks ago. I plastered all over social media around uranium and in particular why I went on DIL. Okay, so DL was here and entered once we changed Microsoft back up through here. Okay, we had a nice run from a like a dollar to a dollar and went up to A140 yesterday and that's when I said I was going to sell. So, this is the free section here, ASX Trader Public. Anything I post on social
• 03:00 - 03:30 media, I put in here, okay? And this is where I talked about this one. Good thing about this is if you ever miss any of my posts or anything like that, you can actually come up to the notifications up here, turn on settings, come down to ASX Trader Charts, and turn on the inapp notifications. So, if you download the app, get the notifications, you'll never miss one of my social media post again. You can actually get it in real time
• 03:30 - 04:00 because even something like that do I sell at $140, it's now $133. Um, so just reasons why and you can see and I'm going to explain those reasons why I exited today. Okay. Um, so hang on back to I guess trader public here. So in at a dollar. So 40% growth. Okay. One of the biggest things people I'm up 40%. From here the risk is now greater than my rewards. I'm locking in profits. One of the things I always look
• 04:00 - 04:30 for is when I buy it, there's more bull reasons than bare reasons. When I sell it, it's the opposite. There's more bare reasons than bull reasons. And it's really that that easy. What you've got to do is think of trading very much like a balance scale. So, think of it like having a scale like this. And you've got and you've got your weights, I mean your buckets on on each side. So, when I took the trade, there was so many bull reasons over here that it weighted this thing like that. Okay. However, when I just exited, I then was
• 04:30 - 05:00 able to then start to build up a case why I should short it here. So then a couple of these reasons here started to to disappear and then this started to build up and it started to then tip it a little bit more in this side than that. Doesn't mean it can't keep going up. But what it does mean is the probabilities are no longer stacked in my favor like they were when I took the trade and held on to it until it hit to 140. Okay? And that's all you do. You always become the casino and you always just stack the probabilities in your favor. You enter a
• 05:00 - 05:30 trade because the probabilities are in your favor. You exit a trade when the probabilities are no longer in your favor. Okay? When it starts hitting zones and you can justify a short position because you've got to remember markets move on supply and demand. There were a lot of reasons why demand would step in down here at a dollar at a dollar because there is a lot of bullish reasons here. there's going to be a lot of reasons why people will start to sell which means that there will be a lot of supply coming online just like mine came
• 05:30 - 06:00 on. Okay, so that's the way you've always got to think about it cuz every day you're holding it, you're essentially saying you would buy it. So what you've got to do is pretend you don't hold dy. Would you buy dy right now as a trader, not as a retailer that knows nothing about right now where it is here right now? You wouldn't because if you were to buy it now, where's your stop loss going to go? It's got to be all the way back here. You know, the risk is not worth the reward up from here, you know. So, if you start looking at what it could do from here, um
• 06:00 - 06:30 there's a lot more reasons why it should start to reject soon anywhere from here to a $150 kind of thing than it is that. And then if you start using it as if you would buy it today, that's me buying at a $140. And I go, well, man, the risk is maybe it even comes back down to the zag zone. You know, I'm risking 26% now for what? Another to here. Best case scenario, resistance. There's more red than green from from this point. So, this no longer fits my trade
• 06:30 - 07:00 plan. Let me show you a real life example I did a few weeks ago and how it perfectly played out. So, let me come back to here. I'm going to type in dil enter. Sorry. search enter d. All right. So when you type a search, you can pull up all the things whenever I've mentioned d you can see people have been talking about. But this is the key
• 07:00 - 07:30 one here. Capital rotation in action from them to dy. So this was as it happened again. This isn't me cherry picking stuff. So I just exited my NEM trade locking in profits from position. I'm now rotating that capital in dy. For me this decision about risk-to-reward. At this point, I see more risk than reward remaining in them in the short term. Whereas DIY presents a setup where there's more reward as So this here is April 24th. Okay. So let's go to April 24th
• 07:30 - 08:00 now. And look where that is. That's here. So this one had just changed market structure and we broken out through here back through here and we're at sitting around that you know just under a dollar. Okay. Now let's look at them during that time. then at that same diet 27th was here. Okay, we then as have sold off.
• 08:00 - 08:30 Okay, so from that point there I this is down 10%. And DO is up as you know 40% as I just showed you. So this is what people don't get. When I sold my NEM trade and on that NEM I was up 33%. I sold something I was up
• 08:30 - 09:00 33%. I locked in my gains because no longer was the reward worth the risk. I rotated into D because it was the opposite. So, going back to my my balance scales. Okay. When I entered them originally, it's because it did this. I've now exited it because it started doing this. There was more reasons for it to go down from that point forward than it was up. Doesn't mean it won't go up in the future. I'm talking about short term
• 09:00 - 09:30 over the next month. That's what this account is for about making money each month. Okay. So then my risk was higher than my reward. Whereas when I entered them, my risk I mean my risk was lower than my reward and that's what I'm looking for. Then when I entered dil there was more reward than there was risk. Okay. So rotated locked in my 33 nearly 34% gains. I then rotated it into dy at on
• 09:30 - 10:00 that date and I've made 40%. But this is the thing. I haven't just made 40%. I've also dodged a 10% pullback on them. This is the part you don't realize. So, by me holding them, essentially, I would buy it that day and I'd be down now 10%. Okay? So, I'm actually better off 50%. Because I made 40% on DY and I dodged the 10% pullback on D on on them. So,
• 10:00 - 10:30 I'm now 50% better off. So, it's actually a 50% more in my account growth now because of doing that rotation. Can you see how it makes sense? So, this is why in that post I talked about um you know, it's like an ex-girlfriend, don't look back on it. Like, who cares if it keeps going? It no longer meets my criteria, which means my criteria is that there's more reward from here than risk. Okay? And I can justify a lot of
• 10:30 - 11:00 reasons why I would sell and get out at this $140 zone. If it keeps going, so be it. I don't care. You can keep going to the moon because I'm not now going to sell that money and have it do nothing. What am I going to do? I'm going to find something bigger and better like I did when I rotated from them to DIY. So all it's about now is rotating that money into a better opportunity that has a better risk-to-reward. And there is no way I would be after locking in 40%
• 11:00 - 11:30 gains by that. Now here when we're at a major resistance, it's the decline coming down. It's the fib. It's the fib extension too. So if this is an ABC, this is where it would reject. It's also the fib 618 coming down. Let me just get off the log. It's al also the fib 618 from the rejection zone. So from the zag fib 618. It's al also the fib 2.618 off the log. So, you know, there's a lot of reasons where if this is a wave three, it's probably at its key zone. If it's a
• 11:30 - 12:00 zag, it's probably the key zone. It's the decline. You're starting to get uh really overbought. Then, when I started moving into the smaller time frames, I started to get divergence. Okay? So, that's why I was like, you know what, there's more I'm starting to see this expanded ending diagonal. Okay? So that's why when I started seeing I was like, you know what, ending diagonal into a key zone on bearish divergence. Why play with fire
• 12:00 - 12:30 when I don't have to? I'd rather sell, lock it in, and go and find a better setup. Um, I'm expecting this to probably bounce today, come up, and then we'll see if it puts in a double top or puts in a lower high. And if it does that, then, you know, you've definitely got your exit. But even now, you know, it's already down 3 or 4%, which I've already saved 4% just from that. And now again, I'm looking for the next opportunity, which I'm going to identify today because today I do my weekly trades, which is where I go through and
• 12:30 - 13:00 I unpack things. The students come through and tell me what they're looking at. And it's very, very, very rare that something doesn't come up. Oh, I want to get in that. All right. So, that's events and upcoming this one here. So, on a Wednesday at 12:00 today, I'm going to have hundreds of students coming on. And the best thing about this is these are trained students that are have been
• 13:00 - 13:30 that know my strategy and know what I look for. So, it's a 100 trained eyes out there. They go, "Hey, this one looks good. Can you can you check it out?" Then I go through and talk about the the TA on it, you know? So, it's almost like a scanner for me. And it's very very rare that I do not find something good. If anything, sometimes I might I'm already I'm already maxed out. I've got to and that's why I then have to look, okay, does this have more opportunity or does this have more opportunity? That's always what what you've got to think about, you know, does this thing that I'm seeing right now present more opportunity than something else that um
• 13:30 - 14:00 that I already own. So, a tip that uh Frank Watkins told me, so Frank Watkins, he's been trading for over over 50 years. a tip that he says that just was the biggest light bulb moment. It makes so much sense is he goes, "At the end of the month, look at what's in your portfolio and drop the worst performer." And I'm like, "Oh, wow. That actually makes lots of sense." Um, but we don't. What do we probably do? We probably ditch the best performer because we're
• 14:00 - 14:30 like, "Oh, let's lock in gains." That that kind of thing. But if you're looking at your swing account, you're trying to run. Yeah. If you were to drop your worst performer, then I guarantee that your um I can't say guarantee, but you know what I'm saying. I bet you you look back and be very happy that you probably implemented that that strategy because if it's performing well, it means it's either in a downtrend, not doing well, or it's in a sideways trend, which means how long much longer could it be in a sideways trend for? All right. Anyway, onto the next one. Another one looking at is South
• 14:30 - 15:00 32. So, we're not looking at insur. So again, this one was a beautiful change of market structure back through a support resistance. So we've got our confirmation off here after a nice leading diag going in. Um reasons why you can see when we break major support to grab liquidity or continue the trend. You can see that this one came down on lower in volume higher low in volume lower in price. But the main thing that stood out for me is we went long on this
• 15:00 - 15:30 one back here and we made a good trade and sold. I sold half here and then got out the rest to pretty much break break break even. But when we were up here, we identified Shane actually I think had identified our master elitician. He had identified another new low. So we're here going, "Oh, okay." Um, didn't expect that to play. Oh, so it wasn't there. It was this one here. Um, so when it was up here, cuz he identified this as a 1 2 3 1 2 3 and then 1 2 3 4 5 as a
• 15:30 - 16:00 expanded flat. Take out the high, take out the low, continue the trend. Whereas what we thought it was was the beginning of a new trend, your 1 2 3 4 5. And this is why it's really important to always look back. But this is, you know, the benefit of having a master certified elitician is he kind of makes you think at things that you might not think about. doesn't mean I exit if he has the opposite to me, but it just means it makes me think about okay, where would I exit? And you can see if you can see that once you change market structure,
• 16:00 - 16:30 why would you be there when you know there is a potential for another low? But anyway, back then, so we're looking at, you know, over a year ago, we identified if we'd lose this support, that 240 zone is a huge level of support. And that's what I talked about here back a few weeks ago. And then what I did was combine it with a bit of uh it's a weekly yeah here you go. So a year ago we did so April 18th which is yeah almost a month ago. So a year ago
• 16:30 - 17:00 when we when we did a deep dive in South we highlight a critical support level. We said that if it broke that that zone the 24250 region would become a major confluence. So the great thing about this is I've done all that work with no bias. If anything I had bullish bias and it actually went the other way but without emotion. It's all data driven. So I had that. So aware now. What does that mean? It means the prep work's done. Now comes the real skill. Patience and confirmation. We're not blindly buying just because the price arrived. We're watching closely for a change of
• 17:00 - 17:30 market structure. Something signals the strength. Okay. So a lot of key things. We came down at the level I identified from over a year ago. We're getting on lower volume. We're getting really oversold. So then I started doing a bit of prep work. Okay. So let's go back to what I So back to south 32. So I started not only looking at technicals, I started also looking a bit bit at the fundamentals as well. So 18th on the same day started started d diving in a bit. Um started looking at the the
• 17:30 - 18:00 fundamentals which is where again you can compare two other ones. And then I realized that South 32 was the only share in the top 50 that was trading below its book value. Book value means that if they were to sell all the assets today, it would be valued more than what it's currently trading. book value is $329. It was trading at $269. So there's a disconnect between the value of the assets to the value of the price. And if you start looking at the book value of its peers, BHP 2.2 way
• 18:00 - 18:30 off 1.72 1.86 yet it was 0.86. So book value was telling then I started looking at some other things here and yeah and it was showing that it was fundamentally undervalued. There's a few little you know possibilities of this if this this M does this or that but you know that's the kind of thing and you got to wonder is that now priced in okay so that's why then we started looking at it and that is where then once we had the change of market structure and especially here change of
• 18:30 - 19:00 market structure back through your level there then you are good to go. All right. So little things like that can be really powerful when you pre-plan the possibilities because then you can act on the data instead of emotions. What do you think people were feeling when when we bottomed out there? Extremely fearful cuz we just went from 350 down to 250. Okay, it dropped 30 40% instantly. Okay, but this is the beauty of following data. Okay, so that one's now in change of market structure back through. This
• 19:00 - 19:30 is pretty much the exact same setup as um uh DY I showed you. you know, four major support, change mark structure back through. It's one of my on bullish divergences. I love that kind of thing. So, from here now, we can just draw up a fib zones and I'm not happy to call a bottom until we get through here 330 cuz see that that could just be the zag zone. Okay. And we may just come into this zone here.
• 19:30 - 20:00 If we can get up through here, then I'm more excited because then we're breaking decline. We're ch breaking back through major support. This is where trap money will be back through the 618. Okay, so that's what I'm looking for to then be like, yep, things are looking really good, but it is giving me markings of a bottom um because I had identified that a year ago. Fundamentals are aligning with the TA and that's what I'm looking for. So, this isn't a short-term trade. I'm not looking to make money off it here. This is one that I've added into
• 20:00 - 20:30 my super, my long-term, and I it stays there while it stays strong, but I need I need to break out above here. So, what I'm hoping this is is just accumulation. Okay. So, you can see you've got resistance sellers here. You can see you've got buyers here. And then you can see I'm hoping this is the spring. All right. So, once we there, maybe you get a chance where it comes back here and go up through there. What have you moved? You've gone from your downtrend phase into your sideways phase with your spring on Lauren volume and
• 20:30 - 21:00 then boom marks the bottom. All right. So that is what I'm looking at on that one. All right. Uh talked about SYR. That one's done extremely well over the last little while. So again talked about this one here as you know this is pretty much what I'm thinking with South 32. See equal there spring and see how we got that other low. That's what I guess if you're not in South 82 you're hoping happens and then you can be like well hang on why is it buying there
• 21:00 - 21:30 again? What's that? It's your spring to grab your liquidity and then you then you break through. All right. So nice accumulation base here. It's broken through. Why aren't they selling here anymore? Really nice. It is very extended now. So if you're not in it, you've got to wait for the pullback even you could not take that breakout. Okay. And this is a really good example of even though it could have meet all your criteria, you can't actually take the trade because of the risk-to-reward. If you were to take that breakout, where's
• 21:30 - 22:00 your stop loss? It's got to be under this little pivot under here, which is too far. On top of that, I would never take a breakout if volume's not confirming it. And OBV didn't confirm the breakout, too. All right? So, whenever I take a breakout, it has to have volume confirmed the move and it has to give me a good RNR, which means I wanted to see a pivot before it went out because then I've got a good R&R. If I don't have volume confirm and I don't have a pivot, then what I do is I wait for the pullback and you know, I
• 22:00 - 22:30 saw Ben post about it. I was like, look, this kid's just turned 18. He's our charity cohort winner and like he's just absorbing information like a weapon. I'm so proud of him and he was chosen for that reason. He's been in stocks since he was 14 in there. He'd always been comment on my post. I'm like, "This guy's got energy. He's going to succeed with or without us. So, let's help him along the journey and short shortcut it, you know." But let let me show you. He he took this in. So, for those that don't know, we also have a free Facebook
• 22:30 - 23:00 group as you see 31.1 members here. It's ASX Trader for beginners. It's where I've been in. It's my group. I've been there for over 5 years. This is kind of where I started to build my reputation. um you know call in COVID bottoms, 2022 tops, lithium tops, things like that. So there's a lot of um a lot of my students from MTM are in here. So you'll see a lot of quality analysis people that have been trained properly. But I just want to show you the one that uh Ben Ben posted recently. So here it is just 15
• 23:00 - 23:30 hours ago. So Syr, there's been a lot of noise around SY. You know, everyone's going to be I'll understand the excitement. Let me be the voice of reason. Now look at this. He's already aware of emotions. Price has increased nearly 100% in less than a month. It's true. I have it. Okay. You would require to take profit 91 from the current. So what he's now seen is, you know, really overbought should have potential bearish like OBV is not confirming it. We're at the 1.618. So he's saying the same thing. We've broken this at least now wait for
• 23:30 - 24:00 the confirm the pullback into the zag zone. And then he's saying you probably get a good hidden bullish divergence or something off there off the that move off the change of market structure and then you take the breakout there. It's exact. I just couldn't be prouder, you know, like this is a 18-year-old kid on the scholarship only just finished the MTM 101 and I'm not like already seeing this quality analysis and everything that he's he's already prepared and if it goes without him, who cares? There's another one, you know? And that's the thing I was trying to sell you with D.
• 24:00 - 24:30 If it keeps going, who cares? There'll be another one. All right. These are dime a dozen. They happen all the time. If anything, they happen too often. You can't be on all of them. Um, so you don't have to be on all of them. You just got to be on a couple of winners and you just keep rotating and when those winners start potentially turning losers, you rotate into the next winner. Just rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat. All right, but this is what I'm trying to say with SYR. You could not take that breakout. You now have to wait for the pullback. Okay, another example from there was uh NVX.
• 24:30 - 25:00 So NVX got in as you guys know a couple of weeks ago on the change of market structure through here. So up 30% right now. Um we have come to a major resistance now. So if we can get as you can see here. So old support old support old support resistance we just need to get through there. I don't think it will reject here or if it does it will just be a little pivot. Okay. Um so I'm not selling just
• 25:00 - 25:30 because it's at resistance. But I am prepared that if it did do this, if it did reject here and then if we buy off here and it puts in a lower high and changes, I'm not going to be hanging around cuz that's still a three-wave move into a major resistance. It could just be a zigzag and a keep rolling over or this could turn into a double bottom or something. Um, so yeah, anyway, I'm not hanging around if it does reject here and change market structure. And it's really that that easy. Uh, another one to look at was one where, you know,
• 25:30 - 26:00 we were things were looking really good and we exited. Um, so this one here, uh, this was one that I did on that weekly trades and I talked about, you know, everyone's really bullish on LYC right now. I just want to show you the bearish scenario. So again, show you what I talked about. So these are all the reasons to be on it. So here never hold on to something that enters and exits on change of market structure. Okay. So what I mean
• 26:00 - 26:30 by that is and I'll just delete everything. Whenever you get a change of market structure, it could just be a move into the zag zone and then continue the trend. Okay. And the level I said I'm looking for to get above is 920, 930. Once we get above there, then I can sit back and relax. Anything under that could just be a zigzag in that. As you can see, we came into the zag zone and then changed market structure. Look
• 26:30 - 27:00 there. Lower high change of market structure right there. And then it's falling out. Why would you be there? Again, you got to look at this as if you would buy it today. Would you buy this today? It's in a downtrend. It's gone into a zag, fallen out. I guess your reason you could buy it today is that it's on a trend line. Um it's on a resistance support. Okay. So maybe you're looking at that. You know, you might be, you know what, I'll hold it while we're here
• 27:00 - 27:30 cuz I can justify holding it here. But if we fall through there, all of a sudden, hang on, I don't have any more bull reasons. It's broken through major resistance support. It's broken through the trend. it's, you know, still work. So then you're like, uh, that's it. So, you know, that's it. You look at it there. Yes. You know what? I kind of might buy it today. But if it falls through 720, I'm out. Me personally, I got out once it fell back back through the the zag zone because again, I don't
• 27:30 - 28:00 hold on to things because it could possibly bounce off here and go. What I do is, okay, if I still want to be back in this, if it bounces off here, comes up here and changes market structure back through, then I'll take an entry with a stop below. It's really that easy. It's not like an ex-girlfriend where you break up, then you can't go go back there again. Right now, my criteria is not met. However, it will be met if it does this again and I can get back in again. All right? So, always got to look at it like that. And I guarantee it'll stop you holding on to losers. You'll
• 28:00 - 28:30 just cut them. Something I I say to my guys is what you've got to do is open up your portfolio right now and pretend that I'm going to audit your portfolio. If I'm going to come in and go and you need to justify everything in your portfolio to me and if there is everything in your portfolio must be doing this. It must be making higher highs or higher lows. So, it's in an uptrend or it has to have one of our three major reversals. Non-failure swing, failure swing, double bottom, double top. If you can't show me on that
• 28:30 - 29:00 stock where you've got that or an uptrend, then it should not be in your portfolio. And if you a lot of people like, oh, it's like, well, if you what? Oh, because it's down so much, surely it's going to turn around. That is the mindset that gets you destroyed. And that's how you get a big loss. And that is how you get this. You're kind of like, you miss the thing. You're like, "Oh, you know what? I'll just hold because I was at 26, now I'm at 15. You know, I'm down 40%, I'm not going to
• 29:00 - 29:30 sell now. You would have wished you sold at 15, seeing where it come down to. All right. Never ever have anything in your trading account that is in a downtrend or you can't justify the reversal pattern where it means that it's just turning around. Okay? Massive, massive, massive thing. So pretend, you know, if you've got any trading buddies, get a buddy to come in, be like, "Mate, can you check out my portfolio?" Give them your whatever it is, your 10 stocks
• 29:30 - 30:00 in in your portfolio, and say, "Hey, I'm long on all these. Can you tell me why I'm wrong?" And if he doesn't agree with all of them, then you've got to then, you know, you got to pretend you're the judge. Oh, well, but but this, have you looked at this? You know, justify why. Because that's what the market's doing. That's what the market is doing just on a larger scale. instead of just one versus one, it's millions of people versus millions of people or thousands depending on the size of it. But it's thousands of people looking at that stock going, I'm buying for these reasons, I'm selling for these reasons. And there's at some point there's more
• 30:00 - 30:30 buyers and at some point there's more sellers. So you've got to do that just with a trading buddy and do think the same way. Okay. All right. And I'm just going to end with, you know, I don't know if you read got my article from two weeks ago. talked about energy. Um, energy I'm pretty sure is bottoming. We just need that official change of market structure. So, it's still going here as well. So, we just I just want to see it come up. Reject here. Put in a high like
• 30:30 - 31:00 that and do that. Once we've done that, oh, we're we're in um something I post about with oil. I just put it Where are we? Slipping through the bears. So, I have a bit of a play on words like everyone's really bearish on oil. Um, so this was May 7th, so a week ago. Um, oil setting up for potential bullish reversal. And I'm This is what I'm looking for. Come up, go and then
• 31:00 - 31:30 break. So, if we can do that and get up through that level, what is this? It's everything I've just shown you on some of my trades. Break major support, come down, liquidity grab, get back up. Okay. Um so that is let me just show you that here. So again this is your major support major major support here. Why did we break and now put in bullish
• 31:30 - 32:00 divergence lowering volume and potentially coming back up. So if we can like I said in that picture come up reject because it's put in a higher low and break up through the bottom of oil is very likely in and you probably starting to see it in some big charts like ours like Woodside has come down change market structure but again could just be an internal one here. So again we want to see it come up reject this level here put in a higher low get up. Okay. Um, so
• 32:00 - 32:30 yeah, S Santos BPT is one really that's catching my eye because look at the volume that's coming in here. So you've got a nice impulse here. ABC down. It's come down and lower in volume and look at the volume already. This buying volume is taken out the highs up here. Um, so again, I just want to see it come up, fill that gap here, put in a higher low, and get up and boom, that will be a
• 32:30 - 33:00 wicked trade there on on BPT as well. But yes, notice the the volume. This is all come down Lauren this last leg in particular. I just want to see yeah that happened this move in in confirmation as well and volume's already supporting it. So yeah, I I have taken an early entry on it which was through here support resistance. So I have taken an entry there which is something I talked about with the with the interns. So yeah, we we often talk about few
• 33:00 - 33:30 little setups and stuff like that interns here and I said BBT looks good here as well. Um and yeah, we're all talking about the volume and that and then once we got the change of structure, I like you know what, I'm willing to take a bit of a go here even though it's only a internal change of market structure. Got a lot of work to do. Um the R&R looks really good from here. Um and then oil confirming it for my indices must confirm energy looking to bottom. Um but yeah, it's too too early to know that a major bottom's in. But as you can see, the last two weeks and it has been a very good performer. Um, and we'll just have to see if that
• 33:30 - 34:00 momentum continues from here. All right, guys. I'll leave it there. But if you like the video, please like and subscribe, and I will catch you on the next one. Take care, everyone.