Worse & Worse - It CAN'T Go On Like This | Narrative Is Full of Holes - North Korea - Ukraine Update

Summary

Willy OAM dives into the ongoing conflicts in North Korea and Ukraine, challenging the purported narratives and strategies from both regions. He analyzes the reliance on propaganda, highlighting the discrepancies between the public discourse and on-ground realities. The podcast covers the questionable presence of North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, the supposed promises of military game-changers, and the critical shortage of men at the Ukrainian frontline. Willy also stresses the importance of understanding who benefits from these narratives, while contemplating the potential paths as the conflict appears headed toward its final stages.

Highlights

• Willy is skeptical of North Korean soldiers' involvement in Ukraine, suggesting it's part of a larger propaganda operation. 🤔
• He critiques misleading narratives spread by 'faceless' online personas that can sway public opinion. 🕵️
• The narrative around North Korea might enable strategic military movements and North-South Korean tensions. 🔄
• Key military resources and advanced Western weaponry are dwindling for Ukraine, affecting their frontline effectiveness. 🛡️
• There's a lack of cohesive and honest dialogue regarding the endgame for the Ukraine conflict. 🎯
• Propaganda is being potentially used as both a shield and a sword in information warfare tactics. 🛡️⚔️

Key Takeaways

• Propaganda is a major player on all sides, making discerning the real truth a tricky business. 🤔
• The reliability of available maps and sources is questionable, influencing public perception. 🗺️
• Alleged North Korean involvement in Ukraine remains sketchy without concrete evidence. 🚫
• Ukraine faces a dire shortage of troops and resources, raising serious concerns. 🚨
• The narrative may skew for strategic advantages on the international stage. 🌍
• Future negotiations might not play out as expected, with political and military dynamics shifting. ⚖️

Overview

In a maze of narratives, Willy OAM explores the blurred lines of truth and fiction in current global conflicts. As the tension in Ukraine and North Korea rises, the stories we hear are often shaped by strategic interests rather than reality. With sources like deep state maps and unverified images making rounds, it's a challenge to keep up with what's genuinely happening. 🤔

North Korean soldiers' alleged presence in Ukraine is under scrutiny, largely considered to be part of a strategic propaganda campaign. Willy questions the motives and fears an escalation rooted in misinformation. As long-standing engagements unfold, he emphasizes the importance of distinguishing truth from propaganda to understand who truly stands to gain. 🌍

As Ukraine struggles with manpower and equipment shortages, Willy highlights the looming crisis that could shift the balance of the ongoing war. With negotiations and possible resolutions appearing more distant, he poses questions about potential outcomes and the unpredictable nature of geopolitical conflicts. 🌐

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Overview In the introduction and overview of the podcast, the host, referred to as 'Legends', sets a positive tone by hoping the listeners are having a great day and taking time for personal and family relaxation. The host indicates the episode may run longer than usual, possibly breaking the one-hour mark, as it now resembles a solo podcast. The planned discussion will include reviewing maps and geographical locations.
• 00:30 - 03:00: Maps and Reports The chapter discusses the current situation involving deep state maps and their lack of updates. Concerns are raised about the legitimacy of these maps due to recent developments. Further discussions are called for regarding North Korean soldiers and the surrounding narratives, encouraging examination of incentives and actual occurrences, including possible casualties. The chapter stresses the need to clear up misinformation related to these topics.
• 03:00 - 06:30: Narratives and Propaganda This chapter delves into the themes of narratives and propaganda, particularly in the context of war. It addresses the issue of manpower shortage and the so-called 'wonder weapons' that were expected to be game-changers in the conflict. The chapter examines the promises made regarding these weapons and debates whether they were truly fulfilled. It also discusses the strategic military actions such as attacks, storm operations, and long-range strikes into Russia, analyzing how many of these were prepared for Ukraine, how many were executed, and the remaining arsenal. The discussion highlights the scarcity of these resources and questions the actual number of men available, underlining a critical shortage.
• 06:30 - 18:46: Strategic Discussion and Analysis The chapter titled 'Strategic Discussion and Analysis' delves into the real voices and sentiments of soldiers at the front lines, beyond the filtered narratives often found on platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Twitter. It critically addresses the issue of misinformation and exaggerated positive spins by anonymous content creators on social media, suggesting these narratives are misleading and may have more serious consequences. The discussion is aimed at uncovering the truth from propaganda and the responsibilities of those who amplify certain viewpoints without accountability.
• 18:46 - 24:00: Potential Outcomes and Future Scenarios The chapter explores the manipulation of narratives by individuals who knowingly spread misinformation because it aligns with their emotional beliefs. Jeffrey Sachs, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, highlights that journalists can often express views in private that contradict their public reporting. This observation is supported by personal experiences and accounts from industry insiders, suggesting a widespread issue of honesty and integrity in media reporting.
• 24:00 - 29:00: Military Capacity and Supply Chain Concerns The chapter titled "Military Capacity and Supply Chain Concerns" discusses various aspects related to military operations and logistics. It starts with addressing the narratives surrounding North Korean military activities, particularly highlighting the potential incentives behind these narratives. The chapter hints at discussions on the end of the war and the perspective of soldiers involved. It also briefly mentions the introduction of long-range military strategies.
• 29:00 - 43:00: Morale and the Human Factor The chapter explores the impact of advanced weapon systems, particularly with a focus on South Korea and Ukraine, and discusses the implications for future military engagement strategies.
• 43:00 - 60:00: Geopolitical Dynamics The chapter discusses the complex geopolitical situation involving Korea, Russia, and Ukraine. It raises questions about the credibility and availability of evidence regarding North Korean involvement in the conflict, particularly in terms of prisoners of war and casualties. The narrative suggests skepticism about the reported numbers of North Korean fighters, as no substantial evidence has been presented to support such claims.

Worse & Worse - It CAN'T Go On Like This | Narrative Is Full of Holes - North Korea - Ukraine Update Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 get out Legends I hope that you're having a fantastic day and so far a brilliant weekend as well you're taking some time for you and your family it's very very important to do this now Legends of course as always we have a lot to go over and looking at how much we've got maybe we will break the 1 hour mark in what has become a solo man podcast at this point in time but legends look what we're going to go over is of course we will look at the maps we'll look at some G locations of where
• 00:30 - 01:00 things are moving sadly deep state map has not updated but we have other sources I actually feel really bad for what has occurred to deep State even if they continue from here there will be questions around the legitimacy of that map we need to talk about K and North Korean soldiers and we need to talk at length about the narrative there who has the incentive for this what is actually happening are there thousands killed what actual evidence and we need to clear up some misinformation around this
• 01:00 - 01:30 as well we need to talk about a shortage of men and the promised wonder weapon game changers and people saying it was never promised this of attacks and Storm shows and longrange Strikes into Russia and how many were put on hold for Ukraine to use how many Ukraine's used and how many are left very very few numbers we'll talk about that and we need to look at the Manpower shortage and how many men are actually
• 01:30 - 02:00 in these battalions at a battalion minus it's not a full unit we'll look at what the men at the front line are actually saying not propaganda on YouTube Tik Tok and Twitter what actual guys at the front line are saying and in my honest opinion some of these hand clapping Kool-Aid drinking YouTubers Tik tokers Twitter uh Pages especially the anonymous ones CU they're doing it faceless they don't have to own up to anything they've said I think a lot of these people have absolutely blood on
• 02:00 - 02:30 their hands for sharing narratives of which they know is incorrect but pushing it because it suits what makes them emotionally happy um uh Jeffrey sack said on the in taker Carson's interview recently that he knows journalists Who Behind Closed Doors say the exact opposite of what they report online or for the papers and I can tell you from my people I know and people I've worked with and whatever before that is absolutely true many people believe
• 02:30 - 03:00 opposite to what they actually put out blood on your hands and we'll talk about the end to the war and what soldiers are for seeeing for this so look let's start with the North Koreans and as people said and I can't take um I can't take props for this but the ghost of pony and what we have been speaking about is there's huge incentive for The Narrative of North Koreans fighting it has opened up then the use of long long range
• 03:00 - 03:30 weapon systems it has potentially in the future maybe open up South Korean systems more strikes maybe uh looser rules on some of those systems as well but what it has also done is if Ukraine start losing ground in Sumi then it can be sold as well there's 60,000 Russians 12,000 North Koreans of course we had to lose some of that gr and curse back into Sumi and what you need to ask yourself this is where is the incentive for North
• 03:30 - 04:00 Koreans is it in Russia's favor or Ukraine's favor and in my opinion as soon as Ukraine get a North Korean prison of War he will be used very publicly for propaganda we're being told thousands are being killed and wounded and thrown into war why have we not seen this and why do we not have complete concrete evidence of this yet I'm yet to see anything that I consider Beyond Reasonable Doubt of North Koreans fighting especially in the numbers that are claimed in the numbers that are claimed you would see a hell of a lot
• 04:00 - 04:30 everything in this war is filmed and it is in a million per Ukraine's interest to share this again like we've been saying as we get near to the end of the war propaganda will increase massively so will the brutality of the war and ferocity as well and remember that both sides they believe that only the other side has propaganda they don't see their own and the machines both sides are running in overtime time but let's look
• 04:30 - 05:00 at what could have been some misinformation but I can't find the reverse image search because it's been reposted so many times there's like tens of thousands of these to go through but I've been sent this by many different people and even different screenshots that this image that was shared of the North Korean claimed North Korean yesterday dates back into 2022 now I can't confirm that so take that with a grain of salt but I wouldn't be surprised around if this is doctored so
• 05:00 - 05:30 let's look at the North Korean note that people are releasing today and what zinski has said about this as well as that situation in KK so let's look at the KK situation this is from Bloomberg but the screenshot I've got here is from the key of independent us officials told Bloomberg they believe Ukraine may only have a few months left in the incursion into KK oblas until Ukraine's military is forced Retreat from the region or risk being encircled by the Russian forces speaking on the condition of Amity to us officials St blueberg it was their hope that President Vladimir
• 05:30 - 06:00 zinski will Retreat from KK oblast in order to avoid suffering High casualties Amid and ongoing Russian offensive to retake the territory and about 50% has been lost here you Ukraine's general staff from Reuters they say 40% but it's somewhere in I think I have it here 4 and uh oh I had it here 482 km squares is what is remaining there we believe it was about a th000 at one point so I still thinking this though but you Retreat out of here what is then then stopping then the Russian forces just
• 06:00 - 06:30 crossing into Sumi if there's a redeployment here despite territorial losses one Us official told Bloomberg that Ukraine has managed to hold onto the territory longer than expected amid President Joe Biden's approval for cave to use longrange missiles into Russia another official told Bloomberg they believe the intention was never to hold on to K for the long term but to provide shock at Ukraine's ability to conduct the incursion in my opinion K is strategically the best thing that has happened for the Russians it has tied up
• 06:30 - 07:00 a lot of Ukrainian resources and not only resources but the best resources the Abrams The Challengers the leopards the artillery even a patriot system up in that area way away from where Russia have their priority number one and number two around that poov gik NOA silar front I believe it's strategically the best thing there in the military aspect but for Russia's informational Warfare it has been a massive hit and for Ukraine's informational Warfare it has been a massive bonus of course they
• 07:00 - 07:30 have then had the longrange strikes and the potential for North Koreans and other movements from KK but longterm I think time will tell us that this was in my opinion a huge mistake seninsky said in September Ukraine is planning to hold this indefinitely in addition claimed 60,000 Army Personnel Russians uh station in Cur and 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been fighting in my opinion from what we have seen the numbers are nowhere near this I believe that these are part of of the propaganda
• 07:30 - 08:00 here to soften the blow when Ukraine decide that they need to withdraw from the area or get pushed back they go look we had 5,000 guys in there and we're up against 72,000 men I've seen no evidence the numbers are anywhere near that large in there but I believe it's a part of the informational campaign here and I'm going to show you why I believe so much is part of informational campaign here but the worst case is this is actually true and if that is true sui is in real trouble if you could potentially have
• 08:00 - 08:30 70,000 guys then Crossing into Sumi after K why would they stop there that's a real real problem especially when we go into negotiations as we Ukrainian officials have previously said they intend to use Ukraine's incursion into KK as a leverage for possible peace negotiations following the inauguration of president-elect Donald Trump again this is 482 Square km it's Irrelevant in the grand scheme of things Trump has pledged the US to get out of Russia's War to negotiate a quick peace deal with Ukrainian officials urging the incon to take peace through strength approach in
• 08:30 - 09:00 negotiations K 480 squares if it was 2,000 squares will be a part of negotiations but it's still going to be somewhat irrelevant now we need to look at more of the evidence around North Koreans here and why I believe that this is part of a propaganda informational campaign so let's have a look at this this is from president zalinski in Ukraine of course Don directions are the toughest sap hon harke and region details about KK battles in the particip of North Korean soldiers say they have a
• 09:00 - 09:30 lot of losses very much and we see the Russian military and North Korean supervisors are not at all interested in the survival of these Koreans everything is done in such a way that it is impossible for us to capture the Koreans that's convenient I'm telling you right now if you have killed a thousand wounded another 2,000 in that 3,000 makeup something like this there will be some that are alive and able to be take P or they will defect or missing an action just statistically even if it is .5% you've got 10 guys anyway um and done in
• 09:30 - 10:00 impossible for us to capture them their own people finish them off there are such facts again everything is videoed in this we have seen cases of this previously but not here yet at least to what I've seen the Russians send them into assault so they have a minimum of protection today there are reports of several soldiers from North Korea our soldiers managed to take them prisoner but they were seriously wounded and they could not be resuscitated again this is convenient where is the evidence of this everyone has a GoPro there's drones everywhere where again it is in
• 10:00 - 10:30 Ukraine's interest to show this to prove there are North Koreans here we need more I am of the opinion I believe there are North Korean here in this many numbers no and sent in in just meat waves also no yes moving across Open Fields in nutritional Pro uh protracted War you're going to have massive losses and it can look like that but as far as just to blow the whistle over the top boys that direction I just don't see that in it doesn't make sense in any way um this is one of the manifestations of The Madness of dictatorships are
• 10:30 - 11:00 capable of the Korean people should not lose their people in battles in Europe and this can be influenced in particular by Korea's neighbors including China China is sincere about the statement is the war should not expand it needs to exert appropriate influence on Pon Yang again what I say is anyone has anything to benefit from this war it's absolutely China Russia's using a lot of their weapons America's using a shitload of weapons we see that they're basically out of attacks there's a hell of a lot of shells being used to why into reserves as well China and its two main
• 11:00 - 11:30 competitors of Russia and America China has used nothing it hasn't had economic effect like that has had nothing it's been very minimal I don't say it in China's interest to stop this war other than what they say politically but then we hear things like this North Korean divisions which a North Korean division is around 10 to 12,000 soldiers from at least my knowledge and research continue to make absolute beating in KK region front line today many were captured and agree with Mr iel lianes he saying share
• 11:30 - 12:00 one video of those captur and I'll start following you and I it is in Ukraine's interest to show this if there's divisions so multiple tens of thousands okay today many were captured well it's convenient then seninsky saying well they were could not be resuscitated therefore we have nothing to show of this and people going well what about that note I can hear people saying it right now this is where I still believe a lot of this is feeding into propaganda so let's look at this and then we'll go over that now no note and this is go
• 12:00 - 12:30 bells of course Infamous for being uh Hitler's propagandist evil evil prick but incredibly successful when you look at the spread and success success of that propaganda and influence but good propaganda need not to lie in fact it must not lie propaganda makes use of the lie cannot have success in the long run the right idea must be set forth in the appropriate way in other words secret propaganda is to tell the truth in the appropriate form so the way I'm reading into this is and I've spoken about this and I've shared this million times is
• 12:30 - 13:00 it's the truth but in the appropriate form that fits you I believe there are North Koreans operating probably soldiers in the front line in K as well almost definitely on artillery lines of North Korean caliber um SPG self-propelled guns is it though these meat waves of divisions of 10,000 guys getting mowed down and whatever no but it is you here and you pick at that thread and it comes out what you need to ask yourself if you're doubting me who stands to benefit the most from this
• 13:00 - 13:30 Russia with guys with no combat experience don't speak the language uh filled with just um uh propaganda in their head but not your propaganda running into this or Ukraine who could get South Korean weapons that would be a massive hit and of course then uh the open up of longrange strategic strikes so again I believe there's some truth in this but I believe it's being pushed out massively and this goes into what I been sharing a long time about if you see a sudden increase in propaganda in a
• 13:30 - 14:00 protracted attritional War this is what it can reveal here is you are managing your morale both internal of your population and of course your military perception of weakness a focus on propaganda could be that this site is experiencing setbacks or vulnerability and it could be a compensation to mask losses challenges or declining capacity and what you're going to see with the limited amount of attacks limited amount of Storm shows limited am of men what the guys at the front line are actually saying the you can see shaping
• 14:00 - 14:30 International opinion of course Ukraine can only continue this war as long as the International Community is supporting Ukraine their economy their military everything and it could be to trying to counteract Nar of the opponent secure more international support so your focus ships oned this if you were to Google Ukraine today everything will be about North Koreans not about just the front lines collapsing in the South and the East over many many months preemptive justification propaganda might indicate preparation for significant action either escalation Retreat or a controversial tactic so
• 14:30 - 15:00 take that as you will everything from having to withdraw in this Retreat out of K I think that I think there's pieces getting put into play for that Target opponent's morale to exploit weaknesses a shift in strategy where psychological operation becoming more Central aspect of the war effort um this might happen if direct military victories are proving elusive military victories for Ukraine are absolutely elusive for the past 18 months so you shift onto the psychological operations escalation or
• 15:00 - 15:30 desperation resource allocation indicators resources funneled into informational Warfare uh either either confidence or effec lack of capacity through other military means so as you have a lack of capacity of missiles or this or that like we said you focus down on the psychological aspect and then we go onto this about what if that propaganda is then not supporting military actions it's more of a shift to other topics out of directly the front line and we have gone through this the other day but signs of weakness shift in
• 15:30 - 16:00 public um attention uh deprioritization of military goals and a loss of strategic Focus so if people are focusing on these meat waves divisions getting mowed down of North Koreans then it may shift people looking away from what is happening with the Manpower what is happening with the longrange strikes what is happening with command and Corruption and democracy and what is happening in the South and the East so you can see in this shifting narrative from survival that is one of the main ones we have seen and of course that deflecting blame we will see more and more and more that's why I believe there are North Koreans probably participating
• 16:00 - 16:30 in here but that is a thread that's picked at and it's become a whole other thing because of the informational propaganda Warfare there's been an increase in Ukrainian propaganda due to the military losses in other areas to shift that and increase that coming into areas where we may see withdrawals or negotiations or whatever else to soften that blow so let's look over this note that I know people will be talking about so this is the note we have seen I've blurred this but there is a man of Asian
• 16:30 - 17:00 appearance then dead in the background and this note says death is not the end but the beginning of eternal glory remember Warrior remember your true fear is not death but shame before your country be captured means to betray your comrades your family and your people so this is being shared by all the pages saying they're giving these notes to North Koreans to then end their own lives instead of being captured so therefore we never see anyone captured what goes into what zalinsky has said okay then uh only those prefer honor to weakness will become an example
• 17:00 - 17:30 for the next generation your death on the battlefield will become a symbol of courage and resilience shame lasted longer than life but glory to Heroes is eternal holding grenade firmly in your hand boldly remove the safety catch and place the grenade under your chin or under your body armor at the end of the day these are still humans so don't celebrate this but also that there would just be even if there's 1% don't follow this order why are we not then seeing this and many people and this is what here saying well this how this is
• 17:30 - 18:00 written is questionable the first thing I noticed was topography the text is written in mulgan Gothic which is a default type face for South Korea beginning with Windows Vista Gothic type faces in general isn't used in North Korea again not um Beyond Reasonable Doubt but still questionable North Korean predominantly uses Sarah fonts in official documents or propaganda material closely line with a traditional calligraphic um writing called this the yon yangang type here uh the text use is
• 18:00 - 18:30 not a single word or particle uh form which would be recognizably exclusive to North Korean vocabulary where there should be so many especially in military jargon or J Tex not even a single comrade really bringing the question of how it is written the spacing is also distinctly South Korean in North Korean orthography uh dependent nouns do not use spaces and saying that where these pieces should have been written differently from what we are seeing there are more smaller Tail Signs like
• 18:30 - 19:00 the colon here Warrior remember it is small but is there North kchs do not commonly use colons they are a much more westernized addition to Korean punctuation used basically only in the South conclusion whoever wrote the test text is not at all familiar with the North Korean language a variety of writing conventions much more likely it's an online translation from another language possibly Russian so it could be Russian that they' have translated online and given to these guys so not saying it is a complete fake but it could be printed on a Windows machine or
• 19:00 - 19:30 in short it is fake so again we will see but I I think this is a lot of a small truth that is becoming something way bigger to support interests and like I've said in whose interest is it more so to have these Russians with guys who have no experience filled with propaganda don't speak the language or Ukraine who then get attack thems storm Shadows potential South Korean arms and a whole bunch of other um support from around the world because of third country has entered the war again that
• 19:30 - 20:00 is my take on KK now we're going to look at the maps before we then step into the acute shortages of men morale uh and long range strikes too and that morale that is a very important aspect but with no changes on K sadly the Deep state map has not updated for us today but to get an idea here is Ukraine the center the C capital of keave red areas occupied since 22 the purple since 2014 I'll be showing you some areas on this map just line up for suriak but German Chancellor
• 20:00 - 20:30 Olaf schules has said this in an interview the Russian army this is the question is making more territorial gains in eastern Ukraine that it has in two years and Putin will take advantage of this impossible negotiation how can Ukraine's negotiating position be strengthened sches answers let us not forget Putin has failed on all fronts in Ukraine well we don't know that until the fat lady sings and in this War I say nothing is over until he sees Linsky put on appropriate uh an appropriate outfit for speaking in the US Congress or two most powerful areas in the world anyway
• 20:30 - 21:00 he wanted to subjugate the entire of Ukraine establish a puppet regime again we don't know yet the failure here the success if Ukraine steps away from this war without joining NATO if we look at the goal of the war and what was um the same goal throughout it was that it can be sold as a success yes there's probably 100 200,000 guys dead in the dirt and another half million or more who are wounded but the goal of that has
• 21:00 - 21:30 been um the same throughout of not joining NATO that still maintains and we see Mark root now a secretary saying that Russia is going to be more powerful in a few years and has moved its economic Reliance away from Europe than to other markets this has been good for Europe as well because it has meant Europe has to move its Reliance on Russia away to other markets too but of course there is short-term problems for both Russia and Europe in this and we see the effect on the Eur and the rubal due to this he wanted to prevent further
• 21:30 - 22:00 approachment from the EU and weaken NATO as a whole and today NATO has two new members Sweden and Finland that said I think although you've got two new uh members I think the divisions in NATO and the EU are higher than ever and being tested more and more and will be really really tested whenever a negotiation process has to take place with those from like Slovakia Hungary Poland Romania and France and Germany X Y and Z especially with Trump coming in uh we're all investing heavily in defense capabilities and almost United States are achieving 2% Target Ukraine
• 22:00 - 22:30 is a stable Nation okay it's not it's a default economy and even before that had a coup so it's on its way to join the EU uh it has a strong Army equipped by us which is defending itself heroically against Putin's troops it's now a matter of laying the foundation for fair and Lasting Peace So this peace through strength argument but here again how can Ukraine's position be strengthened nothing in this says that you've said how NATO can be strengthened yes I agree maybe somewhat you've added some countries people increased spending but I think the division is there you've
• 22:30 - 23:00 said that pu that Putin and Russia has weakened and has failed here but it was filibustering around the question of but how is Ukraine going to be in the strongest possible position so uh let's look at a few areas firstly we'll come down into toret now I can't show any of the footage in this because it is brutal drone dropping footage but this footage of Ukrainian drone striking Russian troops is 350 M away from this Blue Roof we see right in here so just out about in here so we know that gray zone or Red Zone has definitely increased around uh
• 23:00 - 23:30 tetk uh and then we will push further down into poov then we'll go into the Northeast so of course this red check on this map let me turn this off because this is not today today is the 28th we have the pock offs front and Russia continuing to push on many different sectors here especially out to the South and the West so pushing out and down as well of course this is part of a larger envelopment here that will then turn into the envelopment of poov minad we
• 23:30 - 24:00 can see both pushes in the north as well so definitely making ground on these front lines at least by suriak maps and then we'll come down and I spoke about this area this is RO yesterday I spoke in the tree line down around here we saw there was a targeting of Russian forces in here showed you the GE location and this is being updated just in and around here by then the Surak map today although showing less around this
• 24:00 - 24:30 curvature of the road than deep state is showing so I'd go with deep State on this but showing in this tree line is where we spoke about yesterday as well the complete um occupation of us pania which is where that envelopment the uh Ilan nink a pocket closed up maybe 2 weeks ago is so let's just move in this sector let's talk about Kura Cove and I think this is days away from coming under complete occupation by the Russ forces so showing that from good of Cove
• 24:30 - 25:00 the South here that a lot of this is coming under control you can see this tree line here this is said tree line up to the road through here is this one so right up to where my cursor is at the moment coming under control also are these major defensive works that have been falling to the Russian forces as well again enveloping this area as you can see in the north around starty turn KN which is this red dot where that dam was this all closing up to seen by the Red Dot in there so we'll
• 25:00 - 25:30 continue moving just a little bit further west and of course we have viika Nova Silka we've said is these three roads have been cut off other maps are sharing this this map is showing it is Gray Zone I show the G location of Russian forces in the tree line Beyond this road suriak is now saying this of Sil front the Russian army cut Western Supply R Ukrainian Army in Vera and viov Sila this is a big problem because these are going to have to then move across open ground and the weather is getting
• 25:30 - 26:00 poorer and poorer there's also water Crossings in here and bridges going down but I agree with what amk mapping said Don't expect to see Ukraine pull out of here they're known for pulling out late as Mi anyway but they're known for pulling out late in other areas and getting en circled mivia is the most common of this that is what the cancellation of deep state was over and some troops getting stuck in those encirclement so watch that space that is incredibly important now this is the far Northeastern corner and this area in here at least by Surak there's a lot of
• 26:00 - 26:30 development in here in this dor inner that it is saying that Russia is right up to this intersection you can see it sort of cutting around here that they are occupying a lot of this area and then we come down into pishan front so I'm a little bit up here so we have this is the pishan front uh and let's have a look at where then deep St sorry Surak is saying the Russians are up to so if you see where this turns back around and this line that basically right across
• 26:30 - 27:00 where my cursor is here that the Russians are moving in that direction down to the South Supply Logistics to the ukrainians all the way from lazova to zarov is going to be very difficult now that that is cut off and the bridges are down in those sectors now we have some rare footage as well here of an x101 a Russian cruise missile striking a power plant in Neo this is something that we don't see that often you can see then these Trace rounds trying to intercept both missile and drones in the sky and then we get very clear footage
• 27:00 - 27:30 of a strike on the power plant here and a very very large and hot explosion then taking place in this sector so again I believe that Russia is having more success with these missiles from the degraded air defense in Ukraine and increased capacity of these missiles we've seen the missiles with flares in them we've seen Russia uh increase ice scand production I don't know how much I
• 27:30 - 28:00 think it would be like tenfold the amount of our scans we're seeing used being used basically as a disposable bloody weapon at this point but we've also seen those scaners have come under in a Polish shift under artillery so they can come on target much much faster so let's talk about long range strikes here now Tatam UA he shared uh some thoughts about this as well but he goes back to October 24 and our Frontline intelligence insight analysis showing that the limited number of remaining
• 28:00 - 28:30 attacks was unlikely to have a significant impact on the battlefield while we didn't share the exact numbers publicly they are now available in the New York Times article so basically saying agrees with these numbers they didn't put them out but this are these are the numbers so this is then the New York Times article Ukraine slows firing of missiles into Russia As Trump prepares to take office and something that you and I have observed of this war more recently as we have said we have not seen these got signed off and we expect expect to see a shitload of these being fired we haven't seen them now for
• 28:30 - 29:00 some time of these long range strikes that we're going to be taking down Su 34s and this and that we haven't seen any of that for now a couple of weeks the long-range missiles provided by the US and Britain were used to strike inside Russian territory despite concerns that their use would escalate the conflict kees stockpiles are running out um which M with much fanfare Ukraine was granted permission to fire Western longrange missiles at Russian military targets more than a month ago but after initially firing a flurry of them Ukraine has already slowed their use and
• 29:00 - 29:30 this isn't because Ukraine don't want to fire them it's because Russia's moved the targets out of range which we knew had already occurred for a lot of the targets and not only are stock piles of these for Ukraine low stock piles in the west are low and the industrial capacity to make more of this that is still very low too this is one of the primary concerns I have about if China started a war somewhere tomorrow how long of high-end ad and medium- range missiles how many do we actually have how much
• 29:30 - 30:00 has been used up and I think the uh the attitude towards another War the stockpiles at the moment both are the lowest the appetite for War I should say and the stock bars they're the lowest I think it will ever be in the west and if we saw China make a move on Taiwan militarily which I'm still not convinced we will see but if we did see that I wouldn't be surprised if we saw it around now because people especially in America are not going to want to intervene in another conflict and stockpiles this is the lowest point they
• 30:00 - 30:30 are ever going to be but the article continues here K is running out of missiles it might also be running out of time president-elect Donald Trump has publicly uh has said publicly that allowing us made long-range missiles into Russia was a big mistake so far the missiles have been effective in limited ways but they have not changed the war's trajectory and with what Trump has said here a lot of this was aimed at it was made after the Democrats lost the election so after that it happened then
• 30:30 - 31:00 they signed off being like well you deal with the problem and I agree I think these longrange stries should have been signed off a year ago and Biden deal with what became of that but it is cheap poor leadership to oh well someone else will deal with it it is in my opinion a prick act I agree with the use of this it's in a war but the way it was done is showing the absolute weakness the incompetence the lack of accountability of that administ or the current Administration I forget
• 31:00 - 31:30 that he's actually still in power him and carela who are more interested in in my opinion emotions and idealism rather than reality and how people are seeing it and the election results they prove this in my opinion the war has also not escalated some have feared first you case use ever of an IBM Tech to Iran Plus North Korea potentially China as well like I've been saying it's not escalation in Ukraine Russia can't do that other than nuclear systems or major major losses maybe peric victories but
• 31:30 - 32:00 it can escalate in other sectors just as the US turkey and Ukraine have escalated in Syria uh and a lot of that aimed at Iran and Russia in that hybrid somewhat Warfare not hybrid for turkey at least and there's been the things going on in in Syria now as we presumed are absolutely horrible let's continue on this though although Russia launched a powerful new intermediate range Hypersonic ballistic missile at TR weapons facilities after the first two
• 32:00 - 32:30 ballies of Western long-range missiles it has since responded to them with their usual mix of drones missiles and threat so we've only seen one of those odesnik being fired us officials said they believe Russia was trying to avoid escalating military operations in Ukraine especially when the election of Mr Trump a long time skiing the war and given Russia's SE recent Battlefield successes they spoke on the condition of anonymity given the political sensitiveness and I believe this is why we have not seen another aishn fight or a huge response like huge response to the lieutenant general being killed if
• 32:30 - 33:00 Russia escalate so will NATO it's that escalation ladder that gets climbed I think Russia is going we not happy with this we would like to escalate but we have to be patient do what we're doing and just grind forward slowly because that grind forward slowly is not then going to have some huge escalation and War systems or troops deployed over we grind forward slowly and that that is our way to win that is how I am reading into this and that is why I have rais concerns about false flag attacks
• 33:00 - 33:30 happening and why the propaganda what I see around North Koreans is so so pushed by every single level at the moment if Russia's just grinding forward we need reasons for more Aid to go to Ukraine it's just War it's not good or bad it's not it's just propaganda is a part of war and an incredibly important part of War uh anyway Rob Bower NATO's most senior military officer uh said recently the strikes by the long-range ballistic uh was the attacks had a Ser he had
• 33:30 - 34:00 seriously hit a number of weapons factories and ammo depos in Russia he said that that had forced Russia to move many Logistics facilities farther back from the front although the actual Frontline effect with seen of this was limited we saw big explosions we've definitely seen things move we've seen things become more difficult but as far as a game changer which people promised no they don't like the attacks coming in their own country through the air they don't because they are effective and they are effective but as we know the longer this goes on the less effective
• 34:00 - 34:30 they will become from jamming and from Air defenses as well and we've seen this particularly with the Storm Shadow that limits their ability to fight effectively at the front and that's what you want so it's a strategic system the question is then is it enough to win in my opinion no especially in the numbers given and you need serious long range not medium range cuz all the bombers all the 234s whatever are just outside of that in safety in some ways what has happened with the attack pronouncing attack m is the story of what happened
• 34:30 - 35:00 with the other Western weaper in the war Ukraine pressed for months and even years to get Western weapons himars abrs f-16s and in my opinion while ignoring the unsexy items that don't look good in photographs or in then areas of government by ignoring that and ignoring things like trenches night vision radio and men at the front line that has done this because it looks good and look at this capability rather than what is actually being asked guys I speak to and I've shared this multiple times I've said we need a night
• 35:00 - 35:30 vision on every corner of the trench we need more guys we need better radios and we need better fortifications and they're like the f-16s are doing nothing for us but we're getting overrun because we don't have that equipment and the equipment there the cost of that for the price of one of these systems can basically put a night vision at cost price through hundreds of kilometers of the front line and by the time the West granted access to these weapons Ukraine had lost even more Grand no weapon has been a silver bullet although it's been promised to be Western officials say that Ukraine is reled too much on help from the west and hasn't done enough to
• 35:30 - 36:00 bolster its own war effort especially in mobilizing enough troops or fortifications or command or corruption what has a huge effect on all of this it is not mutually exclusive the corruption the command issues that can prevent people then volunteering to fight and people hiding from mobilization so not enough has been done there but again in that propaganda what I shared in the beginning of this video that propaganda and the shift of blame that is what I predict we will see a shitload in the coming weeks or months we've already seen a lot uh in the spring President
• 36:00 - 36:30 Biden relented the administration shipped Ukraine as many as 500 missiles from Pentagon stock balls the Us official said while Ukraine couldn't use them in Russia they fired them at Targets in eastern Ukrainian territories controlled by Russia and in Crimea aimed at hardened command and control post weapon storage areas and some other bunkers with limited success on these of course us and AD officials said those strikes have been effective but also said they felt Ukraine could have been more judicious with the number of missiles used and more selective with
• 36:30 - 37:00 targeting and this is something you and I have brought up is some of the things hit was a bit like was that worth it with this but at the same time I think it's a bit Rich of the US or UK or French officials to do this because we know for a fact from the German league phone call and also how these weapon systems operate that us and Nat have a lot to do with the uh targeting Corrections and aiming of these systems so you can't blame just Ukraine with all of this you guys are absolutely on the back end and we know this Ukraine
• 37:00 - 37:30 doesn't have satellites uh in the air so there's some blame there but in my opinion with this is more selective targeting there may not have been any other targets because a lot of those have just been moved outside of that range us officials said Mr Biden had Justified granting permission on November 17th to use the missiles in Russia because Moscow brought North Korean soldiers into the war again link that back to the beginning see what I mean I I think if this war ends and we have never seen what I'd consider
• 37:30 - 38:00 concrete evidence of North Korean PWS I honestly would not be surprised I think they're there but when you line up the incentive for it questions get raised at least in my head at that point Ukraine only had tens of missiles left maybe about 50 the Us official said it had no likelihood of getting more The Limited American supplies had already been assigned for deployment in the Middle East and Asia uh officials in Britain which allowed Ukraine to longrange Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia after missp decision said recently they didn't have many more to provide and the industrial
• 38:00 - 38:30 capacity is limited on making more of these it's unlikely Trump will step in and fill the Gap here recently told Time Magazine he disagreed very vly with Ukraine's use of attacks in Russian territory and Mr Biden's decision to provide them foolish and of course this was after the loss of the election but definitely limited missiles since the US and Britain Grant permission Ukraine has launched at least half a dozen missile strikes at using at least 31 attacks and 14 storm Shadows so again not that many what have we said you need massive
• 38:30 - 39:00 attacks it has to be simultaneous and successive otherwise things can just move and tactics can change to fit around that the most damaging Attack From The Storm Shadows was on November 20th at what was said to be a Russian command bunker near Marino in KK on November 21 Russia launched a new Hypersonic um missile the oresnik so a day after this the hazelnut tree is what it stands for this was sent as a warning that Russia could hit any part of Europe with the new missile 6 days later the Russian general who the architect of Ukraine's Invasion called Mr Biden's top
• 39:00 - 39:30 military advisor to discuss concerns about escalation insisting that missile test had been long planned and we know there was notice given of a ballistic test as well after the November 27th call Ukraine didn't fire attacks or Stam Shadows for two weeks despite his public threats Mr Putin is trying to react carefully to Ukrainian operations they believe mosco will likely not respond to attack him strikes in a way that could risk drawing Washington deeper into the fight and put the new Administration in an awkward position as it comes in Putin wants to keep Trump sort of on his side
• 39:30 - 40:00 and Al doesn't want further escalation here that grind forward because I think they go well the way it's going at the moment yes if there strikes against military command and this and that but the way things are going in the front line continue this then we'll have more success or we will be in a significant position of power for negotiations Moscow could Step Up cyber sabotage attacks in Europe which we have seen carried out by the by allegedly by the FSB but it is unlikely to directly Target us interest some analysts said Ukraine had slowed its missile use because it had initially targeted
• 40:00 - 40:30 Russian facilities it had long wanted to hit uh now with new missiles remaining with few missiles remaining Ukraine is being more deliberate we decided to wait and find high value capability and that's natural uh because we need to preserve this capability and spend it judiciously and very wisely so we really haven't seen these create in the beginning yeah a bit of an effect but what then flow into be SE on the front line just because something is smoking and this and that that is tactical success Strat IC success is well how is that then affecting the troops in X spot
• 40:30 - 41:00 and what we have seen is then from curse these strikes it has not managed to slow the Russian advancement in other areas what is slowing the Russian advancement at the moment in my opinion is weather and exhaustion from these soldiers now fighting being on offensive for now basically a whole year that is slowing it I don't believe it's the resistance and the long range strikes that is an element I believe maybe 10 or 15% but I believe the other 85% of w we seeing the kilometer squares through December be
• 41:00 - 41:30 less than November and October is what we predicted months ago when Russia was moving faster as the weather comes in so people are saying that we could be 20 something days away from the end of the war if Trump is correct in saying that he can end the war in a day now I don't believe this because I don't see at this point why Putin would end the war given the situation that it's looking like across the border in Ukraine ex successes that his military is having after that initial large defeats that
• 41:30 - 42:00 were occurring uh this from The Washington Post as Ukraine marks Christmas exhausted soldiers wonder if Trump can end the war ask their thoughts about potential C for25 Ukrainian soldiers said they'd welcome a reprieve but was skeptical skeptical sorry one was coming soon and what you'll see in this is not what the propagandists say who aren't on the front line and aren't prepared to go on the front line on Twitter or telegram or Tik Tok or whatever these guys in the front who are exhausted who have been fighting and they see what is is actually happening bodol spent the rest of the day dressed
• 42:00 - 42:30 in a colorful jacket and carrying painted uh spinning star while merrily singing traditional Ukrainian carols and banging a tambourine against his thigh and what I will say is gentlemen like this in areas of the front line are an absolute blessing to bring some happiness and some morale to other soldiers his audience though thankful for the attempt at a holiday cheer was noticeably less enthused cillo said there is no good mood he's a deputy Battalion Commander so no one feels like the end is near the morale keeps sinking
• 42:30 - 43:00 lower and lower getting worse and worse morale is a huge problem desertion we know in the tens of thousands is a huge problem and then mobilization of course this is all just all Interlink becoming massive Frontline issues I'm waiting for when nefo and the tens of thousands they go and fix this cuz they could but the end of the day what's going to break first the Russian economy or the Ukrainian lines in my opinion the
• 43:00 - 43:30 Ukrainian lines and I that's why Putin may not stop he may keep going what happens what happens if the Ukrainian front line fully collapses that my question you I was thinking about this in bed last night if the Ukrainian line just fully collapses like completely and Russia's making 15ks a day 50ks a day what does NATO do at that point if Russia looks like they'll move to the border now I don't know if that will happen well at some point in a protracted attritional war that does happen uh cuz there's no energy or weapons or anything left to fight or people but then what what occurs would
• 43:30 - 44:00 Russia just take what they want or would they continue to the border of NATO and some would say they'll cross into NATO that's ridiculous the Kremlin know they don't have the power for that and the Kremlin have never said they want that even in their most radical propaganda officially you know but what happens at that point what does NATO do what what does NATO do if Putin just says no it's continuing because long range strikes this and that takes a long time it's very expensive there's not that much and mobilize man manpow is is the primary
• 44:00 - 44:30 issue any we continue this holiday season marks Ukraine's third straight since Russia's Invasion the president-elect Donald Trump's promise of negotiations to end the war has many questioning if there will be a fourth Trump is already pressuring European nations to increase Aid to Ukraine while signaling that security assistance from the US Ukraine's biggest backer will Decline and if us pull out it's over uh but he has not deos disclosed details of how he plans to forth Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and Ukrainian Russian delegates have not met since the first months of the war in
• 44:30 - 45:00 2022 you also need to bring zalinsky to the table as well in past years officials in keev and soldiers in the battlefield expressed commitment to fighting until the occupying Russian forces were defeated and pushed off Ukrainian land again that propaganda I shared in the beginning all the the elements of propaganda going from a fight of Victory to a fight of survival that is the narrative shift that we have seen very recently also now nothing left on that slide no went through it sometimes I missed the very bottoms of these uh asked for their thoughts about a potential Sease for25 soldiers in
• 45:00 - 45:30 Ukraine's 33rd Brigade said they'd welcome a reprieve but were skeptical one skeptical I can't say that word one was coming many expressed doubt that Putin would settle for peace while Russian forces have continued to make gains and maintain the offensive initiative and I agree vehemently or Trump would say very vehemently with that if Russia is continuing making gains maintaining offensive initiative they have the upper hand in the important things as Manpower Munitions um tanks shells long range
• 45:30 - 46:00 strikes why then would they stop and if they do stop what is going to be bloody asked for it's going to be in my opinion here the peace deal would probably see Moscow keep territory it has captured more than 20% of Ukraine given the acute Manpower and missile shortage in Ukraine why would Putin settle for just the 20% why would he say well I want all of the the four oblast and gr or potentially even more if it's crossed into Sumi or I will continue Ukraine's Vladimir zinski has said recently active hostilities could end next year and ke would work to diplomatically return its occupied land
• 46:00 - 46:30 at a later date in my opinion if the war settles however this is agreed to if Putin agrees to this zinski agrees to this if there's an end to this there's not going to be that is they want the end there so it doesn't start again either way that Ukraine don't try and take that back or Russia try and expand it it's going to stop dead there and in my opinion if the guns stop that land is gone that's the way I see this diplomatically that no one wants it to be is still up in the air they want a physic proper end some soldiers on
• 46:30 - 47:00 Wednesday said they fear the US would discontinue its critical weapon support if ke didn't agree to territorial concessions in the interim others acknowledged that they seating land now even as they continue to fight so we have the weap we have the US support we are fighting and we still are losing more and more land we used to talk about Victory before now it's unclear at this point in time this is what I spoke about before there was talk of Victory now there's talk of survival and can there be a survival here and this is what I
• 47:00 - 47:30 call the Manpower Paradox if you watch me you know what I'm on about where I say Ukraine's in an existential fight of its survival and I agree with this but it is not mobilizing men to survive and saying that we can't mobilize those because if we do mobilize those therefore we won't have a future generation to survive and that's what I say is the Paradox is well you need to do one or the other this Sitting In Limbo without rotational mobilization laws they're just not going to have
• 47:30 - 48:00 men Alexander 26 says I'm worried we will just be abandoned those are the thoughts that creep in that the support and deliveries from our allies the ammunition will just stop if we don't have that we won't have anything to shoot with and even with it at the moment it is moving ruds and this is probably my biggest support my biggest concern sorry biggest support my biggest concern for this war is that if the US stops support and zinski doesn't stop the
• 48:00 - 48:30 war it turns a difficult situation into an impossible situation and what will become will be absolutely horrible if the US stops support zalinski needs to stop the war or else it is going to be horrible and history will look back unkindly on Putin but also very unkindly on zinsky continuing an impossible operation at that point in time if the US pulls out you may not
• 48:30 - 49:00 like it but in my opinion that is true we have heard that opinion is built off what zalinski himself has said that if the US pull out we cannot continue but if us pull out zinski doesn't continue and this goes there I don't know what zelinsky's future holds for himself or the government or Ukraine but most Ukrainian military personnel acknowledge that Soldier shortages are now just as critical as the weapons deficits some specialized jobs in the 33rd such as driver for apcs we're down to just one person in a battalion a battalion at
• 49:00 - 49:30 least from where I was serving is just over 600 people you ENT all one driver for Logistics transport troop safely back and forth to transpositions that is unbelievable 37-year-old Dennis not the Dennis a Dennis who goes to the front line Supply uh or to serve his country and not become a multi-millionaire a drone operator here he says do do we even have infantry it's down to a couple of guys and they're over 50 years old
• 49:30 - 50:00 what are they going to do and infantry the de the demand physical on that I'm sorry but your best troops sit young 18 to 25 that's where your best troops are not your best ncos not your best commanders not your best Special Forces but your best regular infantry are there I served in the Infantry for many many years Felix 39 who is responsible for providing logistical and morale support for his unit said Fighters are simply
• 50:00 - 50:30 exhausted he hoped Trump's January inauguration would Mark a turning point in the war towards negotiations because it could provide Soldiers with a much needed break it can't go on like this we're withdrawing and they're pushing further and further what kind of Victory will happen if our officials can't put an end to it maybe Trump can and look what I'm getting out of this is a lot of guys are saying we can't win this we need to take what we can now because I agree with what professor mimer said and I've said this for a couple of years now he said the end of 22 that was the
• 50:30 - 51:00 high waterline for Ukraine after the successful hon har offensive and withdrawal and the um not defeat but the uh the position that the Russian forces in at a long time that was the that was the chance that was the chance to either either deploy nato in and push the Russians out when you had them in the back foot or the chance to go right this is the negotiation here not to let he was saying this at the time not to let the Russians go back recuperate and the
• 51:00 - 51:30 position that we are see now fighting better with higher industrial capacity than we have seen as lavro said and as many uh Russian authors and um people that study Russian culture have said it takes Russians a long time to stand up and I believe this is exactly what we're seeing in a traditional protracted War such as this Ukraine's 33rd Brigade was initially created of optimism to take back territory ahead of the highly anticipated counter offensive on the southern zapia region last year of course that now Infamous 2023 counter
• 51:30 - 52:00 offensive the Brigade was one of several new units formed its members were trained by allies abroad to operate donated Western Equipment such as the German Leopard tanks but after the counter offensive stall due to a stout Russian defense the shifted to defensive duties and this is the problem that 23 offensive that was with the best weapons the highest morale and the best training that will ever become in this war because Ukraine has Manpower shortages at the front line recruitment shortages the amount of people it can actually send externally to go and get training is very limited so Russia is just sort
• 52:00 - 52:30 of keeping that red lining that's how the uh baraso offensive operations occur that's how protracted attritional Warfare occurs that really stemmed out of him uh in the first world war is you just push on so many sectors at once that you can never get all your forces to one area to repel something but at the same time never supply enough to any other sector or back for training and rotation and that is exactly what I believe the Russian forces doing it's now one of the units holding the hottest part of the front line around Kur Cove
• 52:30 - 53:00 in Ukraine's Eastern DK region and sorry why I say that is Will Ukraine ever be able to actually have the troops off the front to train equip rest to then go on offensive actions Uh Russian forces have made rapid gains here intensifying their attacks in what analysts and Western officials have said is probably a bid to occupy as much land as they can before Trump's inauguration and the possible start of ceasefire negotiations the more Russia can get high the better position they'll be and this is exactly what ukra Ukraine tried to do in K I don't get it but it is what Ukraine tried to do in K and this is why I believe Ukraine so
• 53:00 - 53:30 Russia want to get a foothold in the right Bank of nepro in hon if they can get area in the right Bank of the hon right Bank of nepro in hon and can push Ukraine out of curse by the time Trump is in they will be in an even stronger position of power at the negotiating table and it's going to be hard to say at that point well let's just draw it here because the last thing you ukine want the Border drawn here is terrible for Ukraine but the Border if Russia
• 53:30 - 54:00 have troops across here even a tiny bit really bad same as if then the negotiation was Ukraine keep this part of land up in here Russia just wouldn't stop at that point it's people people presume that it is just a given that Putin will come to the negotiating table it's just seen as a given that don't take that as a given the carrot and the stick is going to be how the negotiation is when one party is entering with significantly more
• 54:00 - 54:30 power that's the problem the stick is currently failing because of Manpower Munitions command corruption that propaganda is feeding all of that back to what I said the beginning about I believe some people have blood on their hands the stick is failing there so what you're left with is the carrot and no one wants to negotiate with with Putin or lavro no one's will so that's why I just may continue is none of this but I believe Trump sees
• 54:30 - 55:00 too from my limited watching and listening to Trump is he does see that having um a relationship with Russia Putin Kremlin in the future whatever you want to say is important too and I believe this because of the rise of the dominance of China the last thing we want is China really just Russia in the absolute um um Bubble of influence of China which it sort of already is because because their Market has had to move into Asia and China it's moved there and it's not going to come back
• 55:00 - 55:30 that is a massive problem because China is the main competitor to the US and some areas is in front some areas is behind but over time it is exponentially increasing and will over will overtake at some point Russia can fix a lot of problems for China around ports grain lots of other things too that there needs to be a relationship there to stop it going more of a relationship with China now I believe it's too late for that I believe the time for that was 30 years ago um
• 55:30 - 56:00 but well maybe 2004 uh but that's not good for the future of the what they see is a multipolar world and I agree that this this um century is going to be the rise of a power to really challenge the US economically militarily whatever and we're probably a lot closer to it than many would see as chaplain buer visited one group of soldiers after another lifting his robe and his boots sank into the heavy mud he acknowledged
• 56:00 - 56:30 the troops mood was Grim what mood he joked his prediction for the next year was a ceasefire by Easter followed by Christmas carolling with families away from the front line saying we cannot live without hope inside one of the brigade's medical uh stations for soldiers with minor injuries a 48-year-old o was spending Christmas recovering from shrapnel wounds to his spine saying this won't end soon the Russians won't stop this they don't want to live peacefully and I think the Russians at least from the page I'm saying they are literally
• 56:30 - 57:00 sniffing Victory here at the moment that they believe they're that close to it and what we see and I I speak about this in the more um layman's terms I call it the um the oh my God bankruptcy of warfare and attritional war is bankruptsy little by little and then all at once and what did we see in the end of 22 we saw at 22 little by little positional fighting and then all at once
• 57:00 - 57:30 hariv hon way back until Lions fell a long long way if we come on to the map in some areas was as far as say 85 km until the Russians hit that hard stopper now this is what I'm saying about this bankruptcy is at some point if the war continues if the war does not settle on negotiations in in under a month's time when uh president Trump then comes into the administration if it doesn't settle then then there is a victory and a loser in the war and
• 57:30 - 58:00 some say will say the Russian economy will collapse before the Ukrainian front lines and in my opinion trying to look at this as unbiased as possible and talking to soldiers and speaking to economics experts the front line is much closer to a complete collapse than the economy my question then becomes what happens if the front line completely collapses and instead of looking like this it looks something like this or it looks like down the ne and uh I don't want to misquote him here but I believe
• 58:00 - 58:30 Alex from history Legends corrected me if I'm wrong he said in now interview together he said he he doesn't think it'll stop until the physical border of the Neer River and this is what's such a problem if Russia can actually gain a foothold on the other side of the Neer on the right Bank down in h son what then I want to know from you guys what happens if Russia doesn't stop what happens if the front line has a complete collapse do NATO step in and fight Russia I don't think they're prepared to do this and I also think Russia doesn't want to fight NATO but also believe NATO
• 58:30 - 59:00 and their stockpiles isn't ready for a large War somewhere else and this is why I've said I believe if China wanted to step in somewhere now militarily maybe not economically for them maybe not for their military but at least when we are weaker from the use of shells economics whatever that are struggling and large majority of people in the US and in Europe and in Australia don't have the appetite for another bloody war maybe it's their time to make more
• 59:00 - 59:30 bold moves just like the cables that connect Estonia and Finland other bits and pieces like this don't underestimate China's capacity people have this idea of China's stuck in the 90s don't don't think like that at all like I have said the reason Russia is having Success is Not technical overmatch it's not Soldier skill overmatch it is quality through quantity and just the quantity of Russia's still launching armored
• 59:30 - 60:00 assaults into areas a thousand and something 1,039 days more than that sorry that's a couple of days old 1,040 something days into this bloody war still armored assault the amount of equipment is astronomical and I do fear that once that equipment ends if the tanks end the tactic is just going to shift and it's going to just be in this constant state of flux that we have seen I I don't know I think at this point in time Ukraine either need they needed to do 12 months ago Mass
• 60:00 - 60:30 mobilization of men to push this back or try and stabilize it or seek the best possible deal in negotiations but this limbo period I think is doing nothing but extending the suffering of guys now Legends I waffled for a minute cuz I wanted to break the 1 hour mark we have popped our Cherry here Legends you look after yourself you have a fantastic weekend and I'll speak to you tomorrow thank you bye-bye