S&P 500 Blocks SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic from Fast-Track Entry

S&P Global has decided not to relax the eligibility rules for its flagship S&P 500 index, blocking SpaceX from fast‑track entry after its record IPO — and shutting the door on OpenAI and Anthropic by extension. The decision, announced June 4, means the world's three most anticipated AI‑related IPOs must meet the same profitability requirements as every other company, according to Reuters.

S&P's final statement was blunt: "Exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization." The committee had considered waiving three separate requirements — the 12‑month seasoning period after IPO, the 10% minimum public float, and the profitability test — and rejected all of them.

SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 despite generating $18.67 billion in revenue — a 33% year‑over‑year increase, per.¹ The S&P 500 requires GAAP profitability in both the most recent quarter and the trailing four quarters — a bar SpaceX doesn't come close to clearing.

The company also carries $29 billion in debt, largely driven by spending on AI infrastructure and orbital data centers, as reported by Ars Technica. Making matters worse, SpaceX's IPO will offer only about 3% of shares to the public — far below the 10% minimum float that the S&P 500 normally requires.

Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told:¹ "It speaks highly of the credibility of S&P Dow Jones Indices to be rules‑based and make sure there's profitability before entrance to the index. Making exceptions because companies are so large and have been private so long yet are still not profitable, didn't make a great deal of sense."

The S&P 500's profitability rule isn't just a SpaceX problem — it's an AI industry problem. OpenAI and Anthropic, both reportedly planning their own IPOs, would have qualified for fast‑track entry had the waiver been granted. That path is now closed, as Ars Technica notes. Even after the standard one‑year waiting period, these firms may struggle to demonstrate consistent GAAP profitability — AI labs are capital‑intensive businesses with uncertain paths to positive earnings.

The financial stakes are enormous. Passive funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 manage $7.5 trillion. Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that S&P 500 entry would trigger $14 billion in passive buying for SpaceX, over $8 billion for OpenAI, and $4.6 billion for Anthropic, according to Ars Technica. That wall of automatic demand is now delayed — potentially by years.

While the S&P 500 held the line, other index providers have already opened their doors. Nasdaq changed its rules to allow fast entry of newly listed megacaps into the Nasdaq‑100 within 15 trading days. FTSE Russell implemented fast‑entry rules that make SpaceX eligible for the Russell Top 500 after just five trading days, per.¹

S&P Global did make one concession: it's creating a pathway for SpaceX to join its broader S&P Total Market Index and Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index — less widely followed benchmarks that don't drive the same tidal wave of passive buying. The flagship S&P 500, however, remains off limits until the company turns a profit.

Just before the S&P decision, Morningstar published an independent analysis valuing SpaceX at $780 billion — less than half the $1.75 trillion the company is targeting for its IPO, as reported by Ars Technica. Morningstar's estimate was based primarily on Starlink and rocket launch businesses, excluding the more speculative AI ventures.

The gap between Morningstar's $780 billion valuation and SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO target — a difference of nearly $1 trillion — adds weight to the S&P committee's decision to maintain its profitability and float requirements. For index fund investors whose retirement savings are tied to the S&P 500, the gatekeepers' discipline is a feature, not a bug.