A Deep Dive into Market Analysis

2025 05 05 19 01 59

Estimated read time: 1:20

Summary

In this comprehensive live market analysis, Carl Capolingua walks viewers through the intricacies of recent market trends, focusing on technical analysis, portfolio management strategies, and key market indices. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks associated with trading and advises on taking calculated steps based on market signals rather than speculation. With engaging discussions on the advantages of analyzing troughs, peaks, and candles, Carl provides actionable insights into navigating investments in a volatile market environment.

Highlights

Carl's humorous take on the responsibility for profits and losses sets the tone 😂.
Exploration of the pitfalls of trying to emulate Warren Buffett's strategies 💡.
Detailed analysis of NASDAQ's recent trends and potential future movements 📊.
Clarification of trading methods: methodology, money management, and mindset 🧠.
Reflection on trading tactics using specific case studies of stocks 📚.

Key Takeaways

Understanding market trends requires a deep dive into technical analysis 📈.
Each trade comes with risks, and it's vital to manage them appropriately ⚖️.
Carl's approach to portfolio management focuses on mitigating downside risk 🛡️.
Analyzing candles and market movements can reveal hidden opportunities 🔍.
The discussion includes interesting insights on NASDAQ and other global indices 🌍.

Overview

Carl Capolingua kicks off his live market analysis with an entertaining disclaimer, reminding viewers that all trading advice is general. He humorously suggests that profits are his fault, but losses are on the traders. This sets a light tone as he transitions to serious insights on the importance of tailor-made financial strategies.

In the session, Carl delves into the heart of technical analysis, covering essential concepts like the Three M's of trading: Methodology, Money Management, and Mindset. He dissects recent market activities, especially focusing on major indices like the NASDAQ. This analysis reveals current trends and the potential future direction of the market.

The presentation is rich with real-world examples as Carl examines specific stocks, demonstrating how to apply his theories on trading. By emphasizing the need for a well-rounded approach that includes understanding both long and short-term market movements, Carl equips viewers with the knowledge to make informed investment decisions.

Chapters

00:00 - 03:00: Introduction and Market Analysis The chapter titled 'Introduction and Market Analysis' opens with a welcome address for a live market analysis session. The speaker sets the stage for discussing the previous week's market events and forecasting the coming week's potential market movements. An important legal disclaimer is mentioned, emphasizing the general nature of the discussion and advising viewers to consider their personal financial circumstances before taking any action based on the session's content.
03:00 - 06:00: Discussion on Trading Risks and Agenda The chapter discusses the inherent risks involved in trading, highlighting the volatility of markets, which can either go up or down, potentially leading to financial losses. It emphasizes the importance of individual responsibility in trading decisions and the fact that one should consider seeking professional financial advice before engaging in trading. Additionally, the chapter outlines the agenda for an evening session where questions from the audience will be addressed.
06:00 - 09:00: Article Mention and Analysis on Buffett's Approach The chapter discusses an article on the LiveWise site titled 'You're No Warren Buffett: Six Reasons Why the Buffett Approach Won't Work for You,' written by the chapter's speaker. The emphasis is on Buffett’s investment methodology and the technical aspects of trading, including methodology, money management, and mindset, collectively referred to as the three M's of trading. The speaker briefly acknowledges another article titled 'Forget the Magnificent Seven,' but chooses to highlight their own work, suggesting a focus on why individual investors may find it challenging to emulate Buffett’s investment strategies.
09:00 - 15:00: NASDAQ Composite Index Analysis This chapter discusses the unique role of working with companies like LiveWise and Market Index, emphasizing their shared platform. The narrator appreciates the platform for allowing diverse opinions, unlike the mainstream narrative that consistently praises Warren Buffett. The chapter hints at divergent views on Buffett's investment strategies, introducing a perspective that scrutinizes rather than idolizes his approach.
15:00 - 18:00: ASX 200 and Portfolio Management This chapter explores the challenges and impracticality of emulating renowned investor Warren Buffett in portfolio management. The speaker reflects on his enjoyment in writing an article on this topic, encouraging readers to engage with feedback. The chapter then transitions to a practical analysis session using the Amy Broker platform, specifically examining the NASDAQ composite index.
18:00 - 22:00: Global Indices Review The chapter titled "Global Indices Review" discusses the current state of a financial portfolio management model. The speaker highlights a recent observation of a candle pattern, suggesting there is some market indecision. They note the demand side is still present, but futures are down, indicating a probable lower market opening. The appearance of a black candle suggests this might influence market trends and align with expectations during a long-term uptrend phase. The analysis offers insights into market conditions and trading strategies relevant to current index reviews.
22:00 - 26:00: Sector Indices Discussion The chapter discusses the attitude towards pullbacks in live market analysis, emphasizing that they should not be feared but rather anticipated with optimism. This perspective is particularly relevant in an uptrend as it provides insight into the supply side's response to previous rallies. The chapter outlines a recent rally that began at 14,784, pushed up to 17,137, then experienced a shallow pullback to 15,685, followed by strong demand.
26:00 - 31:00: Base Metals and Commodities The chapter 'Base Metals and Commodities' discusses the dynamics between demand and supply in the market, particularly focusing on the 'demand side candles'. It explains that while there can be a significant demand pushing prices higher, eventually, the market will reach a price level where supply begins to emerge. This transition is essential for price discovery, as it balances the forces of supply and demand, potentially influenced by underlying news or events.
31:00 - 35:00: Gold and Silver Analysis The chapter 'Gold and Silver Analysis' discusses the current supply levels in the market system. The analysis suggests that if there is a minor pullback that ends around the 175 mark, indicated by lower shadows and higher closes above this level, it would suggest that supply is being absorbed by demand. This would indicate a potential rise in the market value due to available demand soaking up the limited supply.
35:00 - 39:00: Natural Gas and Crude Oil The chapter discusses critical levels for natural gas and crude oil and highlights significant demand candles, particularly focusing on a notable one from April 30th. The importance of these demand levels is emphasized, suggesting that closing beneath them could indicate a loss of perceived value from investors.
39:00 - 44:00: Currency and Bond Market Overview This chapter discusses the current state of the currency and bond markets, emphasizing the significance of market movements and investor perceptions. It highlights a recent market rally exceeding 20% from a specific low point of 14,784. The chapter explores differing viewpoints on defining the end of a bear market, with some considering a 20% recovery sufficient to signal the end, while others prefer waiting until a new high is achieved. This reflects the ongoing debate among investors over market indicators and their implications for market trends.
44:00 - 51:00: Online Requests for Stock Analysis The chapter discusses strategies for adjusting stock portfolios as the bear market wanes. It highlights transitioning from one-third to one-half risk investment and advises on managing short positions. This includes backing off on shorts and reconsidering replacing positions that are exited due to signals.
51:00 - 58:00: PNV and Turnaround Setup Discussion The chapter titled 'PNV and Turnaround Setup Discussion' examines the process of identifying effective investment setups across markets, particularly comparing the NASDAQ and ASX 200 indices. While the NASDAQ experienced some pullback and higher troughs, the ASX 200 displayed a cleaner trend with a continuous upward movement marked by five consecutive white candles. The discussion highlights optimism towards the ASX 200 due to its consistent upward momentum, despite the appearance of a contrasting candle in the latest update.
58:00 - 82:00: Analysis of Various Stocks In this chapter, the author analyzes various stocks with a focus on the supply side and volume trading patterns. The volume was low, indicating a lack of motivation from both the demand and supply sides. Although the day's movement did not surpass Friday's low, the author remains cautious and attentive, looking for confirmation before making any conclusions about potential market trends. The analysis remains inconclusive at this stage, emphasizing the need for further monitoring.
82:00 - 94:00: Discussion on US Stocks The chapter 'Discussion on US Stocks' highlights the importance of pullbacks in an uptrend, as they provide an opportunity to assess the strength of the supply and demand sides. The long-term uptrend continues to show positive signs, indicated by a return to a dark green color on trading indicators. This color change suggests strong market conditions, which is observable for traders using specific indicators. Overall, the emphasis is on monitoring these trends to anticipate market movements.
94:00 - 100:00: Audience Interaction and Final Thoughts In this chapter titled 'Audience Interaction and Final Thoughts,' the speaker discusses the criteria for identifying a transition to a long-term uptrend in the market. The speaker shares their personal definition, which involves moving above the long-term trend ribbon, testing it, and holding or forming a trough at or above it. This process, according to the speaker, signals a new long-term uptrend and a potential bull market. The speaker emphasizes that their definitions of bull and bear markets do not rely on conventional percentage changes but rather on specific market behavior. While acknowledging the uncertainty of how long the bull market will last, the speaker emphasizes the importance of having clear definitions for market trends.

2025 05 05 19 01 59 Transcription

00:00 - 00:30 Good evening everybody and welcome to another edition of live market analysis. It is a pleasure to be with you here with you uh discussing the events of the last week and hopefully trying to decipher what might happen over the next five trading days. Before we do that, the disclaimer is important. We need to discuss it. It says that everything we're going to talk about tonight is general in nature and has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or particular needs. So before acting upon any of this
00:30 - 01:00 very general information, you should consider it carefully or seek the help of a financial professional to to determine it's appropriate for you. Other than that, it's important to remember that trading is risky. Markets go up, markets go down, they might not go the way you want them to. You could lose money as a result. Uh and if that's the case, it's always you who's responsible for the stuff you do, not me. Of course, if you make money, then it's then it's definitely my fault. Um, apart from that, the agenda for this evening is to will you ask questions? I'll give you my best uh answer based
01:00 - 01:30 upon the technicals. Um, it could also be something about the three M of trading. So, methodology, money management, and mindset. And on that point, I there was a really good article, I don't know if you saw it today, on the uh LiveWise site right there. Uh, this one here, not this one. Forget the magnificent seven. Look, I'm sure that's very good. But I'm talking about this one over here written by yours truly. You're no Warren Buffett. Six reasons why the Buffett approach won't work for you. And um I love I love
01:30 - 02:00 uh what I do here for LiveWise/Market Index. They're effectively the same company, but um I just love the platform that it affords me on such a an ardent Buffett loving uh platform, which uh to be fair, the first article this morning, we we led with Buffett's retiring and how wonderful Buffett is. But uh to their credit, much to the credit of life, why they allow people like me to get on and present the other side of the coin. Uh which is why not why Warren Buffett is bad at investing at all but
02:00 - 02:30 why there's you've got absolutely no chance of emulating him because you can't you're not Warren Buffett. Um so that's a really uh fun article I felt I enjoy enjoyed writing it. I encourage you to read it. Um give it the thumbs up as well. That always helps me and comment if you if you feel like commenting. Also, let's head over to uh the Amy Broker screen where we are going to kick off by looking at when I can find the right place uh the NASDAQ composite index. That's the right place.
02:30 - 03:00 There it is. And we're going to do our portfolio management model. And I might zoom in a couple here just so we can get a little bit more detail on that last candle. That last candle there. Um I think just smacks of a little bit of indecision. That's what I mentioned in my evening rap tonight. A tiny little bit of indecision. Still very much demand side. Futures are down a bit. So probably a lower open in keeping with some of the indecision that we would ordinarily expect in the long-term uptrend ribbon. If I saw a black candle tonight, another black candle tomorrow
03:00 - 03:30 night in that ribbon, it would not surprise me one bit. And as we often say here in live market analysis, pullbacks are not to be feared. They're to to be um that's right. We're not encouraged but um uh anticipated uh with optimism even in in an uptrend because we get to see the supply side's response to the rally that we had. The rally that started at 14784 pushed into 17137 a relatively shallow pull back into 15 uh 685 and then just demand side demand side demand
03:30 - 04:00 side candles. Even when it was falling from 17137 into 15685 these were still demand side candles as we noted at the time. Um so a wall of demand uh cannot continue forever. At some stage it needs it needs to find some supply. It'll get to a point uh that sparks supply latent supply. The system goes yeah that that's this is a good price level for me. The liquidity is good for me and maybe even there are some underlying news events that are stimulating me to become part of supply. That's a good thing because it's about price discovery. It's about
04:00 - 04:30 um understanding just how much supply there is in the system now. So if we get a very shallow pullback uh one that terminates probably around whatever that high is there. So the high of that candle is about 175. Nice round number we start to see lower shadows pushing into 175 high closes coming up um above that. It's going to tell us that yes we found supply great but there's not a lot of it out there and the demand side stands ready to soak up that supply by the dip. If we see if we get that scenario we're going higher. I'm I'm
04:30 - 05:00 very very sure of that and we should see at least sort of an 18605 and then we'll see where we go from there. If however um we push through that that 17500 because there's one two three four significant demand candles and that candle actually I've got highlighted there. That's the 30th of April. That's I think the most important one of them all. There was substantial demand there on that day. And if we close beneath that candle, where is that demand gone? I mean it's not there anymore. all the people who thought they were getting value on that day no longer see value at
05:00 - 05:30 that level and if there's enough supply excess supply to close beneath it I think it speaks volumes for where we're at in terms of this uh still bare market is actually no I did I did write a stat um during the week that we had rallied we had rallied more than 20% just a smidge but we had rallied more than 20% from 14784 so some people will argue that obviously 20% fall we know it's a bare market but some people argue that if you rally 20% from that low you're effectively out of the bare market. Other people prefer to wait until we we make a new high and then they say the
05:30 - 06:00 bare market's over. So, uh depending which side of the fence you sit on. Let's head over uh some portfolio management on this one. What did we say last week? I think we said we were uh moving from 1/3 to 1/ half risk uh invested. uh we said, you know, you might want to consider just backing off a little bit on some of the shorts or not replacing um shorts that that get naturally stopped out or you you exit because they're they're um giving you uh signals to do so. So, uh but we also agreed that we wouldn't be getting to,
06:00 - 06:30 you know, half instantaneously. It would be a process of finding the right setups if we could find the right setups. And I'm pretty sure we'd said something similar over here on the ASX 200. Maybe we're a little bit more positive on the ASX 200 if anything because the trend here was just so much cleaner. There was no pullback and higher trough like we saw on the NASDAQ. It was just a straight move from 7169 into whatever it was last Monday. Uh and we had five five white candles. We had five white candles since since our last update. Obviously, today's candle is the opposite of that
06:30 - 07:00 and a decent little supply side showing as well. Full black close on the low. Volume wasn't substantial today. I don't think there was a great deal of motivation there either from the demand or the supply side, hence the lack of volume. Um, and the move itself didn't take out Friday's low. So, you know, I'm happy to discount it for now. It's a little bit of a warning. It's got my attention. Uh, but it's certainly not enough to signal to me that something really sinister is going on. So, we need confirmation one way the other. Another
07:00 - 07:30 big black candle would tell us that we're we're likely setting up. I think this is all this is again in line with this idea of pullbacks are good. Pullbacks are good for us in uptrends because we get to check uh how much ammunition the supply side has and how much um you know how much how steadfast the demand side is. I think that long-term uptrend ribbon and it is long-term uptrend in the opposite went back to dark green. Uh you would have noticed that probably on your trading view screens because you've all got my indicators. Uh that that will be an area
07:30 - 08:00 of dynamic demand now. And the key, and as you all know this, the my definition of the transition to a long-term uptrend is to move above the long-term trend ribbon, pull back to it, and do the dick, the test, the hold, and the trough at or above. And that converts us back in a new long-term uptrend, which I I don't use definitions of 20% up or down. I think they're relevant to me. You know what my definitions of bull and bear are, and that would officially put us back into a new bull market. How long it's going to last for, I don't know, but that you have to have definitions. Uh and that's my definition. Uh so 50% I
08:00 - 08:30 think is is valid here. Uh we've effectively got a foot in both camps, don't we? We've got 50% cash, which is not an insignificant amount of cash. Your average balance fund can hold up to up to 10% cash, but typically they're holding around 5%. So they're 95% invested most of the time. They were 95 in 95% invested when we're at 8616 and they were 95% invested when we're at 7169. They're also 95% invested now. Uh we moved order of magnitude probably
08:30 - 09:00 took about a third off the table there. Probably went to about half here. Probably went to a third and a third shorts there. Uh moving back to what was it a half five days ago and then um wherever we are now. Okay. So um did we pick the top? No, we didn't. Did we pick the bottom? No, we didn't. But if you if you if you did move your portfolio risk in that fashion, uh effectively you you just eliminated all the downside. you kind of were about 50% here and you're back to about 50% here, but you didn't have this experience uh with whatever
09:00 - 09:30 capital uh that you got got out of uh up to that point. And that is the goal. That is the goal of my portfolio management model. It is simply to diminish that downside risk. We'll never be able to eliminate it, but we want to substantially diminish it. And that will uh substantially improve our long-term returns. you take out those big big um V-shaped drawdowns in your equity portfolio equity and you'll know that because before you met me you all saw your super funds and how they performed in the GFC right in the GFC using my
09:30 - 10:00 model you can see now and I want you to go back and do that research and say okay this is where Carl would have gone to one/3 this is where KL would have gone to a half this is where he would have been max one-/3 risk with third shorts backing it up and then it would have been two years later that he started to to move back into the market and yeah, no, he didn't quite pick the top. He didn't quite pick the bottom, but he missed out on all of that downside volatility in between. And by having that money in cash, think about how much more money you've got to reinvest back near those lows, not at
10:00 - 10:30 the lows, but near those lows on the way back up when the next bull market begins, you are going to be in an exponentially better spot than the person that's not in this webinar right now. Let us move on to where should we go? We're going to do the the the uh kick around the grounds, aren't we? So, we're going to get start with the Russell 2000. Uh the key I think you know the key uh US benchmark index now because it is the small caps. It is Oh, look at that. Well, there you go. That's that's a strong that's a decisive candle on
10:30 - 11:00 Friday. I I I'm so curious to see how this turns out tonight. Obviously, we're going to have a softer open, but if this can put in a strong showing tonight, this is going to lead us all out of uh Trump's trade war bare market. So, that's actually quite encouraging. Certainly no reason there um to push me off my idea of 50/50 at this stage and no reason uh also to to push me any further. Let us head over to Europe. Oh, that's a V-shaped recovery, isn't it? So, Europe's not too too fussed about things right now. Um certainly not
11:00 - 11:30 Germany. That was France. This is Germany. And that's a magic chart. I mean, that is the sort of chart that makes you wonder why we had to go down in the first place, doesn't it? Oh my gosh, Footsie and Spain. Uh, you know, that is just amazing. The the Spanish index the best in the world. The Hangen is actually recovering really well. Also, the NIK not as good and we can see the halves and the have nots here clearly in the charts. Nifty50 not
11:30 - 12:00 bad. Uh, the Shanghai composite there I would put in the in the bottom half let's say of world indices. So what does that telly maybe about uh who the uh losers are going to be in this trade war? Let's uh just quickly bring it back home and have a look at some of the local sector indices we talked about last week that discretionary was starting to look quite good uh despite the the narrative out there that you're going to hear again outside this webinar that you know we're coming in for some
12:00 - 12:30 sort of recession or discretionary stocks are overvalued or some silly business like that and they had a very good week today obviously a little bit of a turnaround. um energy just rolling over there. Uh we've got a few thumbs down. I might just check the notes here. Um and I'm sorry for not Terrence has got some AI notes there. I guess if you want to follow along at home, I don't think I've got any uh warnings. I'm not sure what the thumbs down were for for maybe they were for the discretionary sector or maybe they for the energy
12:30 - 13:00 sector in anticipation of what a horrible chart this is. Uh the banks that's a decent down day today, isn't it? uh mainly Westpak related and we kind of go through this this cycle with Aussie banks of they're invincible because the big super funds have to own them uh and they're very defensive and they're very liquid and the fact that their fundamentals aren't very good and that frustrates the crap out of all the big brokers and analysts who keep complaining that their fundamentals aren't very good but they keep going up. So we do do these um little little dinks, don't we? But probably just a
13:00 - 13:30 dink for now. Um we see gold was struggling um after that big black candle. haven't had a lot of reason to do much else since then to be honest. So I think that's still a decent call. I am seeing some of them firm up on the charts. We might get to some of those tonight. So uh moderating my view towards gold Aussie gold stocks. Healthcare. That's a credible rally. That's definitely a rally that needs to be taken seriously. Obviously we want to see how it responds there to the long-term downtrend ribbon. Um as is technology. I think that's also a very credible rally and seeing quite a few of
13:30 - 14:00 those um big tick names coming back up in my chart watch scans also heading over to materials decent again uh and so what are we seeing here we're seeing more decents than not so that's encouraging for what the Aussie market could do that's just the other resources there property again another credible rally uh and staples wow that was one of the the relatively strong ones we identified last week doing very well as was the telecommunications index which we said was a Tesla index that must have pulled back today and utilities I think we might have said was okay still okay.
14:00 - 14:30 Um let's head over actually before we go we'll do the base metals as we like to do here. Just changing that to a line chart and ideally these are all pushing back up so we're not going into a global recession or anything like that in the last five days. Mixed bag there for aluminium not much to to talk about. Uh same on copper there. Mixed bag look up on Friday I think is somewhat encouraging. nickel dto lead dto tin not as good let's say and zinc probably not
14:30 - 15:00 as good also so you know hardly a glowing endorsement lithium prices were closed for the back half of the week due to Mayday public holidays in China let's head over to the trading view screen now and we're going to go where are we going to go we're going to go to here aren't we and uh let me go here. Uh, put this on here. Uh, actually cancel. So, I don't know where that's going to go. Let me do
15:00 - 15:30 this for a second. So, I do want to show you something open. Anyway, that's fine. So, we can go back to here. Um, so this is the the peaks and troughs model that I'm I've been working on. And I wasn't happy with it last time we looked at it quite a few weeks ago now because it wasn't picking up a few pigs and troughs where there are outside bars and such that were taking out a trough once it's formed. So I've managed to iron out the kinks. Um don't worry that there's no lines joining them up. That's just a an easy overlay I can do later on. But
15:30 - 16:00 otherwise um for all intents and purposes the peaks and troughs have been labeled. Don't worry about the arrows. They're there for more for me than you. And um we will get them joined up. I just missing um the last peak and last trough here and that shouldn't be too much for me to fix up. So hopefully I'll get some time to do that this week for you and then we'll have another indicator for you to play around with um in the training view screen. So this is this is going to help us or help you in your analysis which we do on Monday nights, isn't it? Which is okay, how do
16:00 - 16:30 we get what our when we do our case studies of of getting how to get out? So where's the trough? How have we closed beneath the trough? What's the candle and and so on and so forth. you don't have to go and hover over things and work them out yourself. They're there. So, I'm very very close on that. And it is it's been a bit of a a labor of love uh to try and make that happen. Uh let's uh because it's simple but uh simple concepts sometimes are very hard to program. Uh we're going to go here now and we're going to go back to silver. Uh not that one that came up. Uh
16:30 - 17:00 we must have saved that last time on college. I don't know who brought that one up. Hopefully got on because it's gone very very well. Uh but no, we're heading over to silver and just going through the motions here. But um fairly sideways uh silver bugs out there. I don't think there's anything to get excited about. I haven't looked at these. I don't usually look at them. Nothing going on there on platinum or palladium. Maybe palladium's turning up. We we'll keep an eye. And there's gold. Okay, that's um today's candle. So that had uh wasn't doing anything of this of
17:00 - 17:30 the sort uh when I was writing my evening rap. That was flat. So that's happened in the last few hours. I suggest um and that's that's a decent move. If that sticks uh then you know I will continue to to moderate my view on gold so far as that I would start to become positive again on it and um you know Aussie stocks and the gold price don't always move in lock step. So it's going to show that the gold price probably is outperforming some of those Aussie gold stocks. So that's that I think that looks very interesting if that white candle can hold. Um, copper
17:30 - 18:00 largely sideways, but don't count it out, you know, as long as it holds that onto uptrend. Ribbon. Uh, iron ore also largely sideways, but probably more skewed the other way. Uh, uranium, that's impressive for the uranium bugs out there. Maybe a little bit unexpected, but um, you know, it we picked this pretty early if you're following my analysis literally on that day there. Um I pointed it out in chart watch in the evening rap and then I followed it up a little later on saying you know short-term trend is changing
18:00 - 18:30 long-term trend still got a lot of work to do but at least some um light at the end of the very long and dark tunnel there for uranium bugs uh heading back now to natural gas actually um bouncing a bit crude oil heading the other way because we had an OPEC decision today where they're going to increase production by bit you know and that's down a bit accordingly We'll finish off by looking at actually before we go, we might just check out the US dollar index because we want to see if our capital's flowing back into
18:30 - 19:00 the US dollar uh to you know rectify some of the the fears around whether they still have the premier reserve currency of the world being US treasuries. It hasn't spiked anywhere near as much as their stock market has has it and that's interesting. So that's telling us that um this rally in the US is probably probably unless we go out and interview every fund manager we won't know but probably predominantly um a domestic um investment dollar rather than an international investment dollar.
19:00 - 19:30 And it does make you then wonder how far their market can go if only the domestic dollar is being applied and the um the external the overseas dollar is heading maybe to Europe. We've seen the charts there. Maybe to Australia. We've seen the charts here. Uh let us uh for completeness maybe we'll look at Bitcoin there. We said last week, didn't we say you could add some if you never had some? And straight away it it started going down. So that's no surprise at all. Uh and let me check the euro versus
19:30 - 20:00 the Australian dollar because I'm not going on holiday soon. And that's a little bit of a relief there. We're going to go to uh bonds. and might have said last time on the bonds that we don't want to see them go down too much because there'll be an inflection point where too much is is scary because it means that the US economy is going into the toilet and we saw a bit of a bounce there on Friday. So that's helping better than expected um US jobs data to blame on that one. Uh so steadying the ship if this hovers
20:00 - 20:30 around that long-term trend ribbon for the next six months we're probably fine actually that's actually not a bad result and confirming well I don't know I think that's dirty data at the end there that that shadow uh but the two years also rallying there so the um the market's perception of it of a chance of recession is diminishing somewhat and that is a positive for stocks Aussie yields still hovering around the middle we did get a bit of a boost there uh on the um flight out of the US dollar, US
20:30 - 21:00 bonds. Okay, let's head to your offline requests and we'll kick off with make sure I don't have any uh warnings or or technical issues. I don't. Uh we're going to go to Mick who has a couple for us here. PNV as a turnaround play. So, let's uh change that back to auto. And we'll go up here and here and go to PNV. Zoom
21:00 - 21:30 normal. And not a lot of um scratchings on the screen here. I guess last time we looked at it, we had a downtrend and a downtrend. Uh M. It's not a turnaround play. It can't be a turnaround play because we don't yet have a short-term uptrend. Uh I don't know. We kind of keep going going over it. That's all right. Um, so turn around, uh, turn around play, uh, requirements. Uh, maybe you can give them to me. Hey, have you learned anything? Because I'm guessing from this
21:30 - 22:00 question, we haven't learned much. What do you reckon? So, let me you you type them in and then I'll copy and paste them over. Uh, number one, what is a turnaround? Not turn around play. I don't like that word play. I like setup. Turn around setup requirement. Here we go. Come on. Uh, green short-term ribbon from Rosco. Well done. So, let me do this. And I'm gonna do this. And we're gonna go in here. Uh, green short-term trend ribbon. So, we're going to go ST, right? Short-term uptrend. That's definitely
22:00 - 22:30 the first the first one. Well done, Rosco. Uh, what else we got? Predominantly white candles. Yep, I like that one. Let's go for that two. And these are in no particular order. pre-dominantly dominantly white candles. Okay, what else have we got? Uh David's coming. Uh that was David. Sorry. Um so Rosco's got the short-term trend riven. Dave's got the white candles. Rosco's
22:30 - 23:00 going down pointing shadows. Yeah, we don't. Uh yes, absolutely. Because it's not just white candles we want. In fact, the the right way to write this is predominantly demandside candles and in brackets then we go i.e. it'll appear on the screen in a second i.e. white bodied and or downwards downward pointing shadows. Right? So, put that in. There we go. Uh what else do we need for a turnaround setup? Uh long-term trend ribbon at
23:00 - 23:30 least orange. Well done, Jackie. Good. I like it. uh longterm trend ribbon uh at least orange but it it in theory it could be up I mean if if so happens but at least orange it we just don't want it to be uh pink okay uh i.e. Not big. Okay. Not down. Not down. Trend. Okay. Put that in. That's uh that's logged. What else do we want? Uh RSC and volume increasing. Uh yes, I
23:30 - 24:00 don't mind RSC increasing. Absolutely. Let's uh let's let's do that one. This is a bit of a icing on the cake. Yeah, absolutely. Um improving uh RSC. So, it is outperforming the broader market. And the other one you've got here is volume increasing. Um volume doesn't have to be increasing, but it's always nice if we've got some uh some extra volume there to tell us that we've got plenty of interest. I do
24:00 - 24:30 like to see, however, I do like to see um uh volume spikes. What's the best way to do it? Volume um or increased volume or volume spikes. I think that pretty much says it, does it? volume spikes um around recent uh major turning points, major lows and and and we're going to see major lows at i.e. at um significant on let's go on on
24:30 - 25:00 signific significant um volatility volatility days uh and what we're saying there is days where uh we've seen significant volatility significant volume as well okay and and so so and you might say hey K what's significant volatility I'm glad you asked was I gave you an indicator to determine what it is okay the red horiz horizontalish line is your average volatility over how many periods. It
25:00 - 25:30 doesn't matter. It just is, right? Uh and then the the vertical lines are telling you if it's above average or below average. So above average volume and volatility um near major turning point. So that I wouldn't call that a turning point, but certainly around here I would. Uh and it doesn't have to be on the turning point day, but uh on or just after it would be good. Just before it's fine as well, but just around, okay? because we just want to see that blowoff. We want to see uh the people because you got to remember that there were some very clever people who shorted the stock on this day here. Um by the
25:30 - 26:00 way, go back and check chart watch scans feature downtrends because it would have been in in in that day for sure 100%. Um and it was also a bet you in that day there. If I'm wrong, please let please tell me. So some very smart people potentially you lot um shorted this stock on those days and they're and they're loving shorts. They're loving shorts. They're loving shorts. They're not covering covering back shorts on a day like that, are they? Uh, other people did, which is, oh gosh, I know I'm going to get sidetracked. U, but would you have covered back your shorts on that day? Would you have taken more
26:00 - 26:30 shorts? And I think we're seeing there a bunch of people buying into it, thinking, "Oh, this is really cheap." All right. And then a bunch of people just shorting the hell out of it on that day. Um, but at some stage the shorts will need need to cover back. Uh, and they're probably going to do that after we've had sort of a bit of a gap low. We've hit a round number like a dollar. um we start to make higher peaks and higher troughs and you know that's that's when we want to see that influx of volume to tell us that the shorts are are starting to move out of the market and or potentially we've got some big
26:30 - 27:00 demand coming in so certainly that that is is good for me so well done who's picked that up Sudesh is saying the dink sadesh has nailed it that's kind of the the final flourish isn't it Sadesh and I bet Sadesh meant to say uh the dink at the long uh term trend ribbon because that's how that's how we know it's turnaround setup. I mean that's that's the definition right there. Um and that's the that is the signal, isn't it? That's our signal. That's our
27:00 - 27:30 signal. So let's put that on there as well. So uh let me just see what else you've written. Close above the orange ribbon. But there you go. So close above the orange ribbon. That's the same as the dink. Donis has got it as well. And thank you so much for everybody uh putting in Mark. Mark's got one that I've forgotten. is probably screaming at the screen right now because part of this um uh understanding that we've got a short-term uptrend. Yes, the the ribbon will turn green and that's but that's a lagging indicator. Uh what we want is to know uh what the price action
27:30 - 28:00 is doing. So let's go 1.1 because I want to put it in around there. Uh good not good. I mean we have good price action for down. We have good price action for up. uh let's say um demand side demand side price action and we'll go in brackets you know uh return to rising peaks and rising troughs and that this is an absolute minimum for a turnaround setup rising troughs uh because rising uh troughs obviously demand reinforcement because remember heating down uh we we've had lower troughs every
28:00 - 28:30 time we thought there was a point of demand it got it got hit with even more supply and the demand ran away um we had lower peaks. We tried to rally and we got hit by more supply. Demand ran away. So to move back to 1.1 uh demand side price action, rising peaks now demand is being reinforced. Uh supply being removed those troughs. Very very important. I think we've got them all. So it looks like everybody who responded got something different, which is brilliant. And I wonder because it's not
28:30 - 29:00 the first time, ladies and gentlemen. I don't mind doing Hey, I'll do it next week again if that's what it takes. But I wonder how many people have actually written down these rules and stuck them somewhere on the wall where they do their analysis. Uh but we've got them. We've got them here now. So that's good news. And no doubt you're probably screenshotting that. And you can get your favorite uh text extraction tool uh or or feed it into chat GBT and say, "Hey Chap GBT, give me the text from there." And it will do that and you can clean it up yourself and then print it out and stick it somewhere on the wall where you do your research. Now that's
29:00 - 29:30 not it. And I'm not going to draw all squiggly lines on this chart to show what will happen because I know we're going to find one. Uh, and we'll find all of those things soon enough. But the question now I have to put to you is, well, if we can't see those things, uh, then what do we do with a chart like this? Not a rhetorical question. Type it in. I mean, I know what you're about to type, but and keep typing. But we could say, well, we could assess it for an aggressive setup. An aggressive setup's got a whole hematitis. Has got to stay out. There's no setup here. Uh we've still got a we've still got a long-term
29:30 - 30:00 downtrend, not an orange uh trend. We don't have a green trend ribbon. We do have good price action though. We've got rising price a demand side price action. Do we have predominantly demand side candles? I'm going to just say we do just it's not resounding but I think there is uh and I think that's we got improving RSC down the bottom. You can see that and I think we do have uh some volume and volatility markers around the lows. So, this is not devoid of ticks in the turnaround setup box, is it? It's just not getting all the ticks, and we
30:00 - 30:30 want all the ticks. That's what we're after. Uh, so the next thing you might do is then, okay, well, let's assess it for an aggressive setup, and the aggressive setup needs a bit of a base pattern. So, preferably bouncing along the bottom for a while. We've still got enough reward to risk up to the top there, but it also still requires a short-term uptrend. It also still requires good price action. We don't have the short-term uptrend yet, so it's not an aggressive setup. given it it's not aggressive, it's not um the turnaround. It's certainly not continuation, uh we would pass for longs, that doesn't mean that we haven't done enough analysis yet because we we
30:30 - 31:00 would assess shorts and it's not setting up for shorts either because of the price action as well. So nothing. It's just a pass. But what we have here, ladies and gentlemen, is is a set of rules that whilst each bullet point is it fair to say, requires some interpretation, right? We're all going to inter well, we can't interpret the green ribbon. the green ribbon screen. Unless you're color blind, that one we can't uh stuff up. Demand side price action. I'll put to you we can't stuff up. And once we get our indicator on Trading View that I'm creating for you 100% you can't stuff that up. Um
31:00 - 31:30 predominantly demand side candles. That's a bit of a judgment call, isn't it? Do you feel and it's you're going to feel something. I'm going to feel something. Are they more white or are they more black? You know, is there a few more downward 20 shadows? That's a little bit subjective, isn't it? But I think we've got enough information. You've got enough experience on being able to make a decent call there. I trust you. Uh long-term trend ribbon. Well, that's orange. It's a color. You can't screw that up. Improving RSC. Well, that's an indicator. I gave that to you. You can't screw that up. Volume spikes around me m recent major lows. Okay. Well, I think that's a little bit
31:30 - 32:00 subjective, but I have given you again the indicators. They're either they're above or below their averages. So, uh and then the dick. I think we know how to do a dink as well. Uh so, the good news is you shouldn't really I know you'll try, but I don't think you can stuff that up. Okay. Um let's keep moving. Uh, we're going to go to Mick's next one because he's also saying this is a a turnaround setup. So, let's see how close he is on this one. Okay. I wish we did this one first because I could have
32:00 - 32:30 kept all all the writing from the last one. I get I can get it back. It's not hard. Let's go. PMV. Uh, Mick, you've uh absolutely nailed it this time because you've you've given me like the one we do want to talk about next, isn't it? Which is this one. So, let's uh put uh this on here. Let's go paste and that'll come back. There we go. There's all our rules from before. Isn't that magic? And let's tick them off. Do we have a green short-term uh trend ribbon? Yes, we do. So, that's a tick. Uh do we have demand side price action? Rising peaks and troughs. Yes, we do. That's a tick. In
32:30 - 33:00 fact, we've got good price action because what we can see here is this last trough, right, is at or above the second from last peak. Okay. And we can and we probably I won't do it but you might do it on your version where you say you know uh good price action too because that's something we have talked about good price action predominantly demand side candles yes I do I think this is very clearly predominantly demand side candles long-term tread ribbon is at least orange yes it is uh improving RSC outstanding volume spikes around recent major lows so around here
33:00 - 33:30 yes there is it's a little bit afterwards on that day there that's where all the short covering came in and the new buying came in and we certainly Certainly got it there. Hopefully, this is starting to gel together for you. Uh, and we do we have the dink at the long-term uptrend ribbon. Look, it's at the bottom of the long-term uptrend ribbon. And you know this, and we've seen this many times, but we I think we've also seen that we've seen just as many that dink at the bottom of the ribbon that go just as well as ones that dink at the top. We just want to see a supply side response. And we I started
33:30 - 34:00 talking I started this whole presentation with this concept of this supply side response, didn't I? this idea that um in a rally a pullback isn't a bad thing because it gives us so much information about where the market is positioned now and what we saw there was a really shallow pullback at the long-term uptrend. We should expect supply there. Okay. Why? We don't know. We don't know why we expect it. We just do, isn't it? Because it works. What I'm saying is we don't know why the long-term long-term trend ribbon works. It just does. So, we get supply there.
34:00 - 34:30 It's a shallow pullback. That's a tick. That's a dink. We've got all six out of six. So, ladies and gentlemen, if we've got six out of six, I put to you, is this a long-term um sorry, is this a turnaround setup? Yes, it is. And that's what's I think is really neat about this system. U what I need you to type in now is can somebody just tell me the dividend yield, the PE ratio, um the interest coverage ratio. Um just give me a just give me a hundred words on their management and if their management is good or not. Um, I just just want to
34:30 - 35:00 understand the value. If there's good value in this stock, a few people few people laughing at that one. A few people crying. I think your reaction is um justifiably in between those two extremes. My point is, if you get that stuff right, and if you've been listening to me for any point any length of time, you know this setup works, right? You already know it works. Who gives a about all that other stuff? Like, it's completely irrelevant now. Thank God for that. All right. Um, let's uh say yes, plus one/3. The only thing we need to do now is plus one/3. Um, now the other thing I I'll I'll ask it and
35:00 - 35:30 if you want to respond uh respond. Um, where's this where is this stock going to be in um in three trading sessions time? Uh, and then tell me where it's going to be in 10 trading sessions time and then tell me where it's going to be in 20 trading sessions time. Uh, then tell me if any of that matters. And it doesn't. We can't tell the future, right? All we know is we've got a setup. We know the setup is pretty good. It's not perfect. And that's it. We we we we measure our risk. We put it on the line and the rest is up to the market. We
35:30 - 36:00 come back, we check it, we we adjust our stops if we need to. We add risk if we need to. We take risk off if we need to. We rinse and we repeat over every trade between now and the last trade we ever do on this planet. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to my strategy. That's it. Okay, let's uh keep moving uh to Missy's Got Telra. Um and I was Yeah, we saw that. It's not that bad. We saw that at the Telster index, the
36:00 - 36:30 telecommunications index earlier and it was a big black candle. Telster must have had a bad day. Actually, it didn't. Uh, and Missy, this is more of a continuation setup, isn't it? And do I need to do the tick boxes for continuation setup? Pretty simple. You know, light green, light green, dark green, and pretty much all the other stuff we talked about. That's there's not much difference there. Maybe the relative strength and powder is coming off a little bit on this. And that doesn't surprise me given Telster was just so amazing through that whole downturn. Um I put it in on this day here. I don't know if you remember. Uh
36:30 - 37:00 we might I might might have even discussed it here on this day, but certainly I put it in chart watch scans as a feature chart on that day. I felt very strongly about it because um you know that gap that big white candle I love buying big white candles on news. Um this little down move here is the dividend. So that's not even a down move. That's actually an up move and I think it's been very solid uh since then. Better than a term deposit certainly. um and bulletproof in what has otherwise been a terrible market. Um where is it going to be in three days, 10 days and three months time? I don't know. But all I can say is right now
37:00 - 37:30 there's I have no reason not even even after today's candle and today's candle might be the beginning of something like that. Hey, I don't know. But there is not enough in that chart to suggest to me that the balance sorry the imbalance because there's an imbalance right now between demand and supply. That has to be the case. It must be the case. A lot of things we don't know, right? I don't know when my beloved West Coast Eagles are going to win their first game this season. I don't know that. But I do know there's an imbalance between demand and supply
37:30 - 38:00 here in that demand exceeds supply. I know that for a fact. Okay. So, um and I can't see even though today is a little bit of a shot off cross about tells me there's a bit more supply. So, I've got an I've got an imbalance between demand as well. I've got more demand as Y. Got excess demand and I've got a little bit of supply and that takes me a little bit closer to balance or equilibrium. doesn't it? Where prices will go sideways and if we get too many of those candles then supply will start to take control and we'll head back the other way. But uh no, this is still demand
38:00 - 38:30 side and therefore I'm still FRP. I'm not going to add any risk to this one obviously because that last candle doesn't warrant it but happy with FRP on Telra heading over to ING which is a recent entrance in the um chart watch uptrends list. I think I put it in on that candle there if I'm not mistaken. Uh today's candle was neither here nor there. In fact, that's actually a really good last candle within the context of today. Today was a lousy day in the market and that one actually held up really well. Uh so happy with that FRP today. Same as before. No, no reason to
38:30 - 39:00 add risk based upon that last candle, but certainly happy to stay the course on ING and moving uh actually we've got FISA as Missy's third one and that's US stock. So, we'll do that a little bit later on. I reckon that's all of our offline requests. So, you've been very very patient. Uh, everybody who's online, let me do your Aussie online request. Now, going to David. Hi, Carl. Wow. Seems to be the turnaround. I agree. Um, I think I ran it. I did. I ran it here. Not a
39:00 - 39:30 not a great day today, but again, a pretty lousy market. So, I I think all things all things considered a good day today. And we can see the relative strength imp. It's still pretty solid, isn't it? Another one that did well during that market downturn relatively well. Uh certainly is the turnaround play, David, because yes, we've got the green uptrend ribbon. We've got rising peaks and troughs. We've got predominantly demand side candles. I believe uh we have done our dink at our long-term trend ribbon and we're heading back up the other side. Um you could argue that here is the candle where you
39:30 - 40:00 could have gone plus one third. I don't know if you did, David. At the time, I didn't run it on that day. might have ran it in the general list but not in the uh feature list simply because uh at that time I was still a little bit concerned about the supply that could come in from here. So made feature obviously when I felt that we've taken out or we had taken out the supply um but I may have run it a little earlier on those days there but just not as a feature. Okay, just to explain why it you might have seen in list or why you might have seen in this and it wondered why it wasn't a feature. Um and so I'm just applying uh the setup rules. Uh so
40:00 - 40:30 FRP, no reason not to um be FRP and and but no reason also to add risk on that based upon that last candle looking up. Uh we've got a cluster of stuff from here in the past. Uh yes, we're going to see supply kicking in around about 35 to 3550, but we're a ways away from that. Not too fussed about it right now. Let's go to your No, that you that's that's your one and I think I've answered your question. uh next high candle for uh plus one/3 and that we're in that stage
40:30 - 41:00 now because once we've had the setup or the initial setup condition then then literally every next high candle every demand side candle is therefore an opportunity to add risk. It's as simple as that. So let's take that and put that up there. And I think well look I won't go back and do it on Telrip and ING but ditto for those two as well. Let's go to Adonis. West Texas light crude looks
41:00 - 41:30 good as a short on a break of 55. Yeah look it was looking really bad at the open but um by the end of the session Adonis it had clawed its way back. So you know again we can't make decisions based upon a live candle. So best to just see how that candle plays out now. Uh, and I'm I'm jumping to the wrong place and we're going to go here for you. Yeah. So, I would have agreed with you. Well, I still agree with you, but next low close, isn't it? Next low close would be your opportunity, and we're
41:30 - 42:00 waiting to see see how today's candle plays out. Uh, West, you actually mentioned West Texas. Not a huge difference between the two, but ditto on that one. Let's head back to here and moving down the list. Uh, for a VAT, can we look at CCL, which is if I'm not mistaken. Uh, does anybody remember what CCL used to be back in the olden days? CCL was a bit of a bit of a blue chip stock, wasn't it? Anybody remember what it used to be?
42:00 - 42:30 CCL. Nobody's remembering. Uh, was it was CCL or did it become CCA at one stage? I'm pretty sure it was CCL. You'll know it if you know what I'm talking about. Nobody. Nobody. Okay. uh look fine. It was looking more than fine back here. This is when I was interested in it. And then I don't know, just uh just tailed off a little bit, isn't it? And then we we hit sort of the the the Trump uh downturn. And I would put to
42:30 - 43:00 you that this candle here uh certainly we're not holding a full risk position, but I'd put to you we're we're less than um or more than two/3s out at that stage and and hopefully very little by the time that candle hits. But such such was the um the disappointment of that that small period of time because some decent setups were destroyed unfortunately by circumstances outside of our control. Now that's then this is now we're moving
43:00 - 43:30 back above the short-term uptrend ribbon. I like this candle, this candle, and this candle. This three candle pattern is a really really powerful C pattern when you think about it. So, this nice big demand side pulled back lower shadow back up confirming with the next white candle. Um, little bit of a a flame out today. Uh, but I don't think a deal breaker. Look, I can't get too excited about this because I still feel that there's too much supply up here for me just yet. And I think we we saw the
43:30 - 44:00 manifestation of that supply in the market today, didn't we? We we we started to see some of that supply work its way into the market in that upper shadow. Um, so I like it. Don't get me wrong. I like it. I just need to see a little bit more. And dare we say, or dare we require the customary dink here, a little bit of a push into that supply zone again, a very shallow pullback this time. Uh, and then on any sort of um demand side candle in here, should we get one, right, that's when
44:00 - 44:30 we'd be looking to go. So, I'll just draw a little bit of a a green box in the zone where I think you want to sort of be looking for it. And that could be a candle, two candles, three candles from now probably. Uh, and that's where we're interested in in um getting in on the right candle. Let us keep moving to Nobody remembers. Oh, sorry. Coca-Cola. Yeah, I had to scroll down. Coca-Cola. Arj got it. John got it. Jackie got it. Peter got it. Coca-Cola. Well done. When it was listed
44:30 - 45:00 here in Australia, not the American one. the Australian and some of the European I think some of the Asian franchises is that the right words were vented into that business and I'm pretty sure I think big big Coke the US Coke bought it back in the end I can't remember so many so many stocks have come and gone in my time I tell you why let's go to advance second one which is A2M and they keep making new ones I like
45:00 - 45:30 this one this. Well, we can see the value there. Or isn't it of of testing some sort of supply from the past? What was that? Yeah, little bit of a level there. Uh pulling back now. Ready to go. That's nice. We like that. We like that test. Uh strong shallow pullback. I really like this one. You know, this is I think a very high quality setup. A very strong demand side showing uh plus one/3 FRP. I can't fault it and that's why it is also a feature chart for
45:30 - 46:00 tonight. And if you don't believe me, have a look over here. Store 2 is where I keep my feature charts uh for tonight, for tomorrow. And A2 Milk is the first one there. Uh FCL is worth mentioning because I think we looked at it uh well, we looked at it five days ago, didn't we? And I said to you, look, it's I like it. Next high close 13 FOP is what I wrote. But, you know, don't expect too much of it. And it did really well. So, hopefully you ignored my don't expect too much of it and you went in. I did
46:00 - 46:30 end up um giving it the feature. I think I gave the feature on that candle there. Uh that candle there and then there and then there. So I did end up acknowledging its quality albeit one day later than I probably should have in hindsight from the webinar. That one, that one there, that one there. Uh so very happy with that one. Just heading off any questions on it tonight. K&B I think looks amazing. Um so that's doubled since I first put it in. Uh, SIG keeps on keeping on. Happy with a plus
46:30 - 47:00 one/3 there and WA is exemplary also. Uh, let's go to the next one on the list. I'm going to pick up the pace here. ASM. Yes, we looked at that last week for a turnaround setup. Decent day today. Certainly saw it come up. I didn't run it in the in the full list just with that little upper shadow just indicating there is still some supply lurking in the system around here. Um I think we said on that day plus
47:00 - 47:30 one/3 not sure if you if you did it on that day um if you did get in on the open I think you're pretty close to break even and I think you I think we're okay. Um this day here is the one that um I think set us on the path to okay again. Um and it's been pretty decent since then and an otherwise pretty terrible market. I would call that a pretty impressive performance today. So look I think we're okay. I think happy to stay the course here. I'm not adding any risk, but happy to run with the risk that we already have. Let's go to
47:30 - 48:00 LYC, which is a little bit of a contentious one, isn't it? And that some people love it, some people kind of don't get it. Uh, we've got too much stuff on there. So, why are you so nasty to me, God? Um, well, let's I was going to get rid of it, but I don't want to get rid of that now because that's quite funny. Let's move this out of the way so we can see the candles. So last time we said FRP next high close plus one/3 close above big black candle. Okay. So we we wanted to see a close above that candle there.
48:00 - 48:30 That candle there. And we wanted to see this candle appear here. We didn't get it. Should be it should have been a white fill but that one there. We just didn't see that. So we haven't seen it. Um so I don't think you would have added any risk. I don't think you would have taken any risk on the table as much as we did draw this black arrow here as a as a point or of of demand that we're interested in. We certainly are and we tested it. We've probed it two times. Probed it on Friday. We probed it today and successful so far in holding that. Uh so, but it is I think still a level
48:30 - 49:00 where a close beneath would uh cause you to I think it's going to cause you to take a little bit a little bit off table even with this short-term uptrend because of uh this here, right? Which confirms this peak here and this black wall confirms that, doesn't confirms that, but that it gives us these lower peaks and lower troughs. I I do think and I'm just going to move it now because we we want to be practical here. You might say, "Okay, you're moving the goalpost." No, no, I'm just moving my
49:00 - 49:30 exit to be consistent with where the demand is. Uh, and if that means I might lose a bit more, well then so be it because I'm not going to get out at out at out a at an imaginary line um, you know, here because yes, it should have been the point of demand, but demand's spongy. I mean, money comes in half an hour late. I don't know, they're out having a coffee. So, that's the level. Uh, and just reiterate close beneath there. I think you start to manage your risk. Uh, and also I think we can leave
49:30 - 50:00 that back up here. I still think the next high candle that closes above this black candle, I don't mind that, you know. I still think that's roughly right. Uh if it's a if it's a monster, you know, white candle that closes slightly below it, still fine, but order of magnitude, that's probably what probably what it's going to take anyway. Uh but let me just add to that uh that on a close beneath, so close beneath, then we I think we do
50:00 - 50:30 need to start to manage a bit of risk. That's all I'm talking about here because the trend could still be up. Um, and depending on the candle, minus 1/3 is a minimum, but if it's a really bad supply candle, then I'd be doing more than that. So, a few possibilities and that's how we should always be analyzing our setups uh for our open setups is well, I need to understand where I'm going to add risk. I need to understand where I'm going to reduce risk. Okay, let's go to
50:30 - 51:00 NST NST. Um, not this is not aggressive because it's more of a continuation. Um, so not an aggressive and we're just waiting for it to set up for a continuation. This is too much. Uh, this is too much for me. That's too much. Uh, these black candles that gap down. Uh I I must see at least some sharp demand, a V-shaped rally, strong
51:00 - 51:30 candles, shallow pullback and going again. And it would be somewhere again with green box. I'm just giving you an idea of how much needs to occur for me to become interested in this. That's not a green box. uh somewhere really sort of and I'll draw a long box here because you know somewhere in there or a nice long move back up the other other side as a minimum for me to start to get interested in this because for me question mark question mark too much
51:30 - 52:00 damage done question mark question mark so have we set have we set or have we put have we set in motion I was going to Okay, that's it's kind of the right way of thinking. Have we set in motion this idea that there's too much supply in the market now? Uh have we have we created too much latent supply? By that I mean all the people that that were long and I would have been longies
52:00 - 52:30 personally and for me I just take my lickings to get out. But not everybody thinks that way. Now that you were depressed they got in at 23. Now it's 19. You know, they'd love for it to get back into here to start to supply again. So that's what I worry about on NST. So it have to take some monster candles to tell me that the demand side is so strong that I don't need to be as concerned about that latent supply. All right. Aendra has WCN. Uh nice turnaround. Yeah. White
52:30 - 53:00 Cliff Minerals. Let's zoom normal. Uh it's actually it's actually not a turnaround, is it? more of a continuation because we're double green here. But sometimes we get a bit of crossover between the setups. Call them those hybrid setups. Uh but no complaints here. I I can't fault this one. Apart from the fact it's a little bit sketchy, is we we can see the candles are blocky when they're blocky open and close. You know, there like two trades for the day or something. Uh we've got some days here where it didn't it didn't, you know, move at all. Open, high, low, close was the same price.
53:00 - 53:30 Traded 44,000 shares on a two cent stock. Does somebody want to put in the calculator4?4 44,000 shares at 2 cents. Okay, it's not a lot of money. It's pocket money. My son's got more more more money in his in his back pocket than that. So, that's um might be a bit of an issue, but hey, the price action is the price action, isn't it? So, just be careful with these. Don't you don't go in all guns blazing. Uh but yes, FRP, I think if you've got it, um I'm happy with plus one/3 even. I think that's a strong
53:30 - 54:00 candle at the end at the end there. I know a little bit of an upper shadow, but not enough to to p push me out. Let's go. Rupal. Uh, we've got a couple of US ones. We'll do those on the way back up. GSS for a turnaround play is uh from Michael. Michael, I will refer you back to the research we did at the start of this uh session tonight. And you may have typed this in before we did that. You would know now that um I don't need to do much more analysis here because it cannot be it cannot be a turnaround
54:00 - 54:30 play. Uh nor is it an aggressive setup for that matter and it's uh none of the um short setups either. So it's a pass. Let's go. I've got bunch of responses to my questions. Uh which actually proves to me that Michael would have typed that in before we did that research. And then we're going to go to Richishy. Hi Richishy. I hope you're well and had a great weekend. I did. Thanks, Richie. I would like to know the real trend of ASX, GCM, and MTM. Let's go.
54:30 - 55:00 GCM. Uh, I don't know about what the real trend is, but the trend ribbons are as close as we're going to get to answering your question. Is it the real trend? Because I think, well, I don't know if you're listening to me, you think also they're fairly reliable. Uh, so we're pretty we're pretty neutral. I mean, short-term trend is neutral. Long-term trend actually is up, so that's a good sign, but it's pretty flat. And you can see we're sort of vibrating above and below a little bit both of those trend rigs. The price
55:00 - 55:30 action is decent. You know, we've got, if I squint, if I squint, rising peaks, rising trust, maybe uh again, the tool will tell us unequivocally at some stage. I won't do the work here. I don't think I need to. Um and candles are a little bit sketchy because again we've got this ill liquidity factor here where blocky candles candles that um trade all at the same point. So hard to do. It is hard for me to do my brand of technical analysis on this style of stock. But at least you know that we can say the
55:30 - 56:00 trends are neutral to slightly good. And then give it a score out of 10. You know if that's where your favorite stock is right now, green critical minerals, whatever it might be. um do the analysis based upon the methodology I've given you. Hey, you don't have to follow my method. That's up to you. But at least do it and give it a score out of 10. And I think we're here. We're like five and a half out of 10, aren't we? All things considered. Uh because, you know, we've got a bunch of supply in the system all the way back up here or so. Um it's not really doing much on the relative
56:00 - 56:30 strength comparison. I think volume's a bit a bit high. A little bit high. That's picked up recently, hasn't it? A little bit. But overall, it's nothing like it was here. So, we're not seeing the same sort of interest in them. Five and a half out of 10. And once you get to that point, you know, it should be pretty easy. Like, what do you want to do with a five and a half out of 10 stock? Let's go to the next one. And this is telling me where I need to remind you that we will stop at the
56:30 - 57:00 bottom of the of the message. So S&P will be the last one we'll do and then we'll work our way back up because we do need to stop at some stage tonight. And I've lost your second one. MTM, I found that now. I'm pretty sure this is a good one. Oh, it's it is picking up. Uh look, what's interesting here is we can see that that was about five and a half out of 10, wasn't it? Back down here as well, Richie. But then this candle kind of changed everything. And that that could be all we're waiting for in your last one on GCM. That one big
57:00 - 57:30 demand side flourish. And yes, you'll have to pay more, but that is going to take it from example five out of five and a half out of 10 here to like a seven or eight out of 10. Um, ironically, it didn't has this one hasn't done a whole lot since then. But I don't think uh it's panic stations yet. We're still holding the short-term uptrend ribbon. Overall, I think we're still predominantly demand side candles. There's a little bit of supply lurking in the system now here and here, but it's again, it's not panic stations.
57:30 - 58:00 Where do we panic? I would want to see it I wouldn't want to see it close beneath there. That that would be disappointing and for me I'd start to take some off the table if only because I don't want to be stuck in this while it's going sideways for the next six months and put that money to better better work elsewhere. Um for me it's still it's still a halt. So happy to hold uh an full risk position at this stage but I'm probably not that far from just taking a smidge off the table at the very least. and you know candles and price action uh that would be required to do
58:00 - 58:30 so. Uh Adonis saying sorry this one is ultraaggressive setup at 130. Not sure what he's referring to but maybe Adonis can give me a clarification as I as I scroll down. Let's go to Robert who's asking what the RSC is and that's the relative strength comparative Robert. So that's the indicator down the bottom. RSC stands for relative strength comparative. What we're doing there is compare comp comparing the performance of the security up the top against a
58:30 - 59:00 benchmark index in this case the A6 200 and I've given you that tool Robert. So if you go into your favorites on your trading view screen I've given you that exact indicator that you can use. Okay. And you can actually change the benchmark from the NASDAQ if you're using US stocks uh to the ASX 200 if you're using Aussie stocks. Okay. And it's really simple. Uh if we're looking for longs we want to see it rising. Preferably it's green also but rising is important. Uh and for shorts we want to see falling preferably it's red also but falling is
59:00 - 59:30 sufficient. Uh who's answering thank you and more than happy for you guys to chat amongst yourself and help each other because that's what we're here to do. Adonis is continuing his his conversation which I don't know where we started but closed above orange on strong D. I think Adonis might be talking to somebody and that's good also. So I'm going to keep moving. Uh Donna is saying poor Wiggles. They are they are poor Wiggles at the moment. Donis uh we were ahead at Halime. Don't
59:30 - 60:00 know what happened after that. Don't worry my blues aren't much better indeed. Predict the Ashes Ash's result. Is that what that is? I'm also a big cricket fan. Uh 5-nil says let's hope so. Hi Carl. Ostock W8 as a continuation. I'm not sure if we saw in store two there's W8 there as continuation. It's amazing. I can't fault it. I don't know where it's going to end and I know this is the hardest thing you're going to do. Um you think taking a loss or getting out you'll do
60:00 - 60:30 that much easier right than than than buying this thing tomorrow. And yet I think you have to and I can't tell you what to do and I'm not telling you what to do but just from the point of view of my model and everything I believe in that is a wall of demand and a vacuum of supply. So, I think having some risk on the table here is is warranted and you can make it as little as possible just just to play along. And you you are going to pay tax at some stage when you follow these, right? Because I put this in originally at 6.3 cents. Um, it might
60:30 - 61:00 have been here. It might have been on that candle there, but I suspect I also put on that candle, that candle, and that candle, and that candle. Okay. So, I've also put it in on this candle. At some stage, you're going to pay the tax for following the model, right? And that is getting in at the top and seeing it go down. But if you do enough of them, you will get enough of getting in here and here and here. So that you know what I mean? It's but at some stage you got but got to bite the bullet because if you only ever follow the ones that that
61:00 - 61:30 don't go up, you'll be cursing yourself for not having ones like this. Not sure if that made sense. Um currencies AUD/USD is a turnaround. U we we're about to head over to the trading view screen. So we'll do those in a second. Peter, remind me if I forget. Uh, what we've got Coca-Cola Amodor from before. Perry's got some US stocks. We'll do those in a second. And S&P were at the bottom. Uh, and confirming he was speaking to somebody else. Matthew's come in with they might be US stocks, I think,
61:30 - 62:00 but I will check them here. The US stocks is confirmed. Okay, I've got one more to do and then we're heading away from here. S&P is the one. Uh, smart pay. Uh, well, this is is it not under a takeover? I don't know what the story is. Not that it matters to me. Um, that is a big gap up. And yes, it doesn't look like much of a candle, but it is really a big white candle. It is a big white candle because we've got to put back in the bit between uh today's low and yesterday's high. So, I know that's red. It's going to change in a sec in a second. And we're going to make that black there and white there. And that's
62:00 - 62:30 the way we really need to visualize this. So, on that basis yet, it's yes for me. Um, I don't know what's going on with the takeovers. So, and the only reason why I say that is it doesn't deter me, but you have to understand that in these types of situations, you could be stuck in for a while while the takeover plays out. It could be could take a month, could take three months. And what we're doing is we're playing for a higher bid. And the market is is indicating that a high bid's coming in this case. All right? I don't know. But that's what the market's indicating. So, it's a yes from me on that basis. So, plus one third, but on the basis that
62:30 - 63:00 you understand what the hell's going on, right? Well, not understand it, but you you um you temper your expectations of of your timing. All right, let's head back up the list now. We're going to do all USA stocks and a few uh a few cryptos, a few currencies from here. That's where we're headed. And we're going to kick off with uh how we're going for time. Not a total disaster, funnily enough. Okay, Matthews up first with
63:00 - 63:30 HWM. HWM, Helmet, Aerospace. We know aerospace and defense stocks are doing really well. If you look on the Australian market, ARMR and DFND have been popping up in my uh feature charts many, many times over the last couple of weeks. And this is probably why this exact stock is in that ETF. Looks great. Can't fault it. Happy to be an owner of this and probably many stocks uh in the sector. Why are defense stocks all of a sudden the best of the best? I'll let
63:30 - 64:00 you come up with some reasons on that. But yeah, I don't know. I was about to say that, you know, you're probably going to get a fickle fickle turn at some stage as well. But in the meantime, more than happy to back this trend. Plus 13. Cannot fault it. Perfect setup. FRP if you have it. Um plus 130 if you don't. Click save. Keep moving. Yes, from me. LRN. Uh let's go. Stride Inc. also very very good. Let's go weekly chart there.
64:00 - 64:30 I'm trying to find who's got the their mic open. Maybe it's that one. There we go. I've got you. Uh that's the weekly chart. There's nothing. No impediments there in terms of overhead supply zones. Perfection. Can't fault it. And it makes you wonder, isn't it, just how much internal strength and built-in momentum these US stocks have when you've got charts like
64:30 - 65:00 this. And you know, you really do want to think very carefully before you fight the bet the bull over there. Let's go to DRS. Leonardo DRS. Again, these these must be I don't know what these stocks do, but they must be very similar because they're almost identical. And if they are from the same sector, just take that into account. You know, it doesn't mean you can't take it, but understand when you're allocating your risk, you're going where is my risk right now? Um,
65:00 - 65:30 oh, I've got 10 defense stocks. Okay, you you you've got a high concentration there of risk in that sector. Uh let's go to FRP uh plus one/3 because I can't fault it. And uh Matthew there as we would expect. Matthew always gives us good setups. Three from three and PLTR is the next one and also looking very good. I think we looked at this in plus one third last week but in a different template. Uh so
65:30 - 66:00 same again ditto perfect setup and I like the fact that we are effectively for all intents and purposes dispensing with that point of supply then it's a major point of supply. So the market has got its head around it like the market's not worried about that anymore and now they're thinking about 200 and beyond aren't they? That's that's what they're thinking now. So, let's um absolutely say here plus one/3 FRP. And here I was a little bit worried about
66:00 - 66:30 maybe what tonight's candle might bring in the US, but I'm looking at these now and uh maybe I don't need to be so concerned. Uh reporting tonight, says Matthew. So, you know, caveat mtor on PLTR reporting tonight. Uh I'm in pretty fully. Any thoughts? We'll go at the high atth rings a bell. ATH I don't know. Uh let's keep going.
66:30 - 67:00 LRN Perry's got LRN as well. There you go. Great minds thinking alike on LRN. LRN about to appear just to remind you. Stride plus 13 FRP. Uh KT KT Corporation. H another great chart heading out to the weekly. And all we're doing here is to making sure that there's nothing um no major points of supply from the recent past that we're worried about. There aren't. And I don't need to do any other work on this.
67:00 - 67:30 They're perfect trends, perfect continuation setups. So if you need me to say more words, let me know. Otherwise, I think they're pretty self-explanatory. And all all we're doing here is um these very good traders, very generous um traders that participate in this community are sharing with you some fantastic setups. Uh we should be very grateful. I mean I I do the research. I that's the wrong word. I do analysis in such that I talk about trends, but I'm not finding these for you. Uh I don't do that US scan for
67:30 - 68:00 you. I do the Aussie scan for you. Um, so Perry and Matthew being very very generous with their time that they took to find these for us. Uh, I'm not worried about that that blip there. Looks like a currency uh ICO, doesn't it? Uh, sorry. Cryptocurrency ICO. That's exactly how they start out, but no, it's definitely not that. So, Grinder. Okay. What's a dating app, isn't it? Of a particular variety, is it not? Hey, who cares, right? All is good in the markets. We
68:00 - 68:30 don't care about any of that stuff. We just care if the stock is going up. Let's go. Um, and V RSN. There you go. All good here. Doing the customary check out there. Nothing to worry about. And plus oneird again on that one. FRP. Uh, so a smorggas board of opportunity. Spoiled for choice there. Thank you boys for those. Let's go back
68:30 - 69:00 up the list and if I do miss one because I'm going through dozens of comments here, let me know when I get to the top. And I think we're pretty good. I did see somebody asking about the Aussie dollar there and one other currency, but I might have lost it. So, let me just do the Aussie dollar while I look for the other one. I had it. I was in the right spot down here. uh AUDUSD for a turn around
69:00 - 69:30 and indeed it is. How about that? You know, who would have thought there'd be a trade war trade war potential global recession and the Aussie dollar is doing that and that tells you that money is coming out of uh the US and heading back our way. That's impressive. That's an interesting chart there. So, uh yes, I agree with you on that one. Plus one/3 oneird FRP if you're already on it. Uh and the Aussie versus the New Zealand dollar was also requested. That one's less interesting for me on that
69:30 - 70:00 one. Uh, not an aggressive setup. No, there's no real uh base pattern there. And we don't even have a dink yet. Don't even have the um Hypix nitro yet. So, I pass on that one. Moving up the list to find any US stocks here. And sorry for the uh the blank air there, the dead air. PLTR from Rupal, which we've done. And
70:00 - 70:30 Kos coming up now. Katos Defense, another defense stock. So, one we've looked at fairly recently as well. Uh, no complaints. A little bit of an upper shadow there. Is that enough for me to not do plus one/3 or it'd be Look, if this was the only thing we saw tonight, I' i'd say, "Yeah, let's do the one/3." I think given we've seen so many other great setups, I'm just going to go FRP on that one because of the upper shadow. But I'm nitpicking here. Next high close certainly is plus one/3. And I'm being
70:30 - 71:00 really pedantic, aren't I, from that because of that upper shadow. Next high close. Let's type that in also. And I think I might be back up the top. Uh, no, we've got Adonis's got a few here. Uh, NHC and I'm guessing that's a US one and not the local or national healthcare corporation. Oh, next high close. Sorry, Adonis. You might be looking at Boeing and you've you've used my own acronym. Fair enough. Uh, yes. Yeah, why not? As
71:00 - 71:30 a turnaround setup, it's certainly meeting my criteria. Uh, so no complaints for me. I reckon that short-term trend ribbon is not quite green yet, but it'll it'll be literally one candle away from it, I'm guessing. Yeah. So, I reckon it's it's going to be very very close, very very close uh to firing green and on that basis uh plus one third high close. But you do need to wait for another one more
71:30 - 72:00 candle, I think, because there's still a little bit of supply here. Okay? Otherwise, it will meet the criteria. I know you've been watching that one for a while patiently. Let's go Costco. Uh, I like this one better than the other one. I mean, this is a much better I know this is more continuation, but it's one of those hybrid setups. So, I' I' I'd back this one before I back the other one. But yes, I do like this one also on a next high close. And in the interest of getting a nice mix of setups, I mean, the the pedigree is here. So, you know, I think I rate this very
72:00 - 72:30 highly, but I I do want to see that next eye close also. So, let's save that away. Uh, Meta and Tesla. And then I'm pretty sure we've done for the day. Let's go Meta. Uh, yes, it's very close. A little bit of a dink perhaps is what's what we probably still want. Just something. See this little point of uh supply here. So, maybe just a little bit more patience. So something like this show a little dink and hold there and then next move up. And I won't draw the
72:30 - 73:00 the green box, but just um a nice little lower shadow in here. But another couple of candles. Look, if you don't see that, you just get a a great big white candle. Happy to go also. But otherwise, yeah, I'd be looking for that sort of price action. Let's go to Let's actually save that. Let's go Tesla. TSLA having a bit of a recovery also. Not far away to be fair. I know. very controversial stock at the moment, but yeah, not far away from a turnaround
73:00 - 73:30 setup. Uh it's got a little bit of work to do here on the um short-term uptrend, but one to watch. I I won't write anything on that. I think it's going to be one, two, or three candles. It's that's order of magnitude uh from it, but certainly it'll it'll present as a turnaround setup more likely next than anything else. Uh let me just scroll down the bottom, see if I missed anything. And I don't think I did. I don't think I did. I don't think I did. I think I got them all. Uh so last chance to tell me I didn't. Otherwise, we are going to head over to
73:30 - 74:00 the uh disclaimer again. And uh just remind everybody that everything we've discussed tonight is general in nature, has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or needs. So before acting upon any of that sort of stuff, you should consider carefully or seek the help of a financial professional because they will tell you that all of my strategies are downright crazy. Um, always remember that it's you and not me responsible for the stuff you do. And it is possible markets go the wrong way and to what you hoped and you could lose money at some
74:00 - 74:30 stage. Other than that, it has been an absolute pleasure chatting with you again this Monday evening. We'll be back, of course, next Monday evening to do the same. All the best for your trading and investing. Until then, bye-bye for now.