🚨 BREAKING: Financial Collapse Looms—LIQUIDATION Panic STRIKES Banks!

Summary

Highlights

• Steven Van Metre warns of imminent financial chaos due to liquidation panic 🌊
• The US faces high borrowing costs, aggravated by trade wars and economic strains 📈
• Hedge funds' risky leverage strategies are unraveling amidst market turmoil 🎢
• Possible emergency intervention by the Fed to control financial disarray 🚨
• Consumer lending and credit conditions tighten, echoing past crises 🔒

Key Takeaways

• Liquidation panic shakes banks and hedge funds as treasury yields rise 🌪️
• Trade wars and high borrowing costs threaten the US economy 📉
• Hedge funds' leverage and basis trade unravelings fuel market turmoil 💥
• Fed intervention seems imminent to stabilize financial chaos 🏦
• Consumers face rising borrowing costs amidst liquidity crunch ⚖️

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Current Financial Situation The chapter discusses the current state of the financial system, which is facing a potential crisis. Steve Van Meter explains that liquidation chaos is impacting banks and hedge funds more severely than anticipated. The chapter raises questions about whether the Federal Reserve will intervene in time to prevent a full-blown crisis. It references a report from Bloomberg that indicates a global financial crisis could be imminent due to the selloff in Treasuries, which is causing long-term yields to rise sharply around the world. This situation poses a significant problem for the Trump administration, as President Trump has been requesting lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, who is currently facing this financial tumult.
• 00:30 - 01:00: Impact of Trade War and Rising Yields The chapter discusses the impact of the ongoing trade war on borrowing costs and consumer cash flow. The focus is on how the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bent, a former hedge fund manager, tried to address the issue by bringing yields down. However, instead of decreasing, yields have soared, causing significant problems in equity markets and the banking sector. This situation increases the risk of a global financial crisis due to the rapidly rising borrowing costs.
• 01:00 - 01:30: Consumer and Banking Challenges The chapter 'Consumer and Banking Challenges' addresses the impending impacts on the US economy caused by the financial system amid risks of recession and global trade disruptions due to President Donald Trump's tariffs. It highlights consumer struggles with rising credit card delinquencies and increasing borrowing costs, necessitating relief. Simultaneously, it discusses banks' challenges in obtaining cash, leading to reduced lending activities and stifling the debt-based economy.
• 01:30 - 02:00: Liquidity Concerns and Market Reactions The chapter discusses the growing concerns about liquidity in the financial system, highlighting a rapid unwinding in the Treasury market. This has sparked fears among overseas investors, leading to market turmoil as questions arise about the unusual market behavior. The chapter concludes by noting that the surge in yields has far-reaching effects, including an impact on mortgage costs.
• 02:00 - 02:30: Treasury Secretary’s Comments and The Federal Reserve’s Role The chapter discusses Treasury Secretary Scott Bassen's remarks regarding the influence of loan rates on Trump's economic policy, which aims to lower borrowing costs for consumers. Bassen minimizes concerns about a potential systemic crisis by describing the current bond market situation as 'uncomfortable but normal deleveraging' and anticipates that this will not continue. However, the narrative points out the risk that if this situation persists, it could lead to a sharp rise in interest rates, potential funding issues for banks, and a potential liquidity crisis.
• 02:30 - 03:00: Market Speculations and Potential Global Crisis The chapter titled 'Market Speculations and Potential Global Crisis' discusses the pattern of plunging asset prices and draws parallels with past financial crises such as the dotcom bubble and the global financial crisis. It raises critical questions about the role of the Federal Reserve during such downturns, including potential responses like emergency meetings, the revival of quantitative easing (QE), and adjustments to interest rates. Additionally, it speculates on whether the current situation is a strategic maneuver by the Trump administration to increase liquidity or if there are other underlying factors at play.
• 03:00 - 03:30: Unraveling of the Basis Trade and its Implications The chapter titled 'Unraveling of the Basis Trade and its Implications' discusses concerns in the trading system, particularly focusing on the intensity of market self and hidden risks. It brings to light the possibility of foreign investors selling off US debt to quickly raise cash amid a trade war, as global trade barriers cause economic activities to slow down. The chapter explores the ramifications of these actions and invites feedback and thoughts from the readers on the situation.
• 03:30 - 04:00: Liquidity Issues and Hedge Fund Strategies The chapter discusses the impact of trade wars on global markets, particularly focusing on the reaction of investors and central banks. It questions the common belief that China is the main player in these economic strategies, noting that China has been selling US Treasury securities for a longer period. The chapter references a chart showing Treasury securities held by foreign investors, and highlights trends from January 2022 to explain the real issues at play.
• 04:00 - 04:30: Federal Reserve's Possible Intervention and Market Dynamics The chapter discusses the dynamics of global trade and its impact on treasury holdings, specifically focusing on China's strategy. As global trade expands, countries accumulate and recycle dollars by purchasing US treasury securities. However, China has been gradually reducing its dependency on the US, decreasing its need for dollars. Despite this reduction, there remains a demand for dollars due to significant foreign-held dollar-denominated debt.
• 04:30 - 05:00: Impact on Consumers and the Financial System The chapter discusses a situation known as the 'dollar shortage,' where typical selling activities are occurring without resulting in panic selling that would drive up yields. Another possibility mentioned is that hedge funds are rapidly unwinding positions, similar to the 2020 basis trade incident, which is contributing to market instability. The chapter highlights the core issue of extensive leverage by hedge funds in the Treasury securities market, which, as it unwinds, leads to liquidity problems.
• 05:00 - 05:30: Global Trade Dynamics and US-China Relations The chapter covers the volatility in equity markets, caused by the sudden collapse of expectations that treasuries would outperform interest rate swaps, leading to panic within the banking system. US exceptionalism is perceived as diminishing, contributing to a negative spiral. A currency strategist from Deutsche Bank suggests that the global financial system is entering unknown territory and warns that the Federal Reserve may need to make emergency purchases if the disruption in the US Treasury market persists.
• 05:30 - 06:00: Impact of Oil Prices and Texas Economy The chapter discusses the impact of oil prices on the Texas economy, focusing on recent trends in the bond market, particularly the unwinding of the basis trade. It highlights how banks, hedge funds, and other institutions are rapidly selling their long treasury holdings due to a lack of buyers, creating a situation where the Federal Reserve may need to step in as the lender of last resort to stabilize interest rates.
• 06:00 - 06:30: Market Opportunities Amidst Financial Unrest The chapter discusses strategies for capitalizing on market opportunities during times of financial unrest. It highlights a specific trading strategy shared with subscribers, focusing on buying at the opening of a green candlestick. The narrative emphasizes the importance of validating momentum indicators with trend analysis to avoid entering or exiting trades too late or too early, thereby reducing false signals.

🚨 BREAKING: Financial Collapse Looms—LIQUIDATION Panic STRIKES Banks! Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 the financial system is on the brink of an all-out crisis I'm Steve Van Meter Liquidation chaos is erupting fast slamming banks and hedge funds harder than anyone expected Will the Fed save us or is it too late now let's head over to Bloomberg where we find out if we're on the edge of another global financial crisis as Treasury selloff sends long-term yields soaring worldwide And I want you to understand why this is such a huge problem for the Trump administration right now Because President Trump has asked the Fed to lower rates They said right now they're
• 00:30 - 01:00 going to stand pat And when you're fighting a trade war well one thing you need is borrowing costs to go down so consumers can have more cash flow and spend money So what did he turn to his Treasury Secretary Scott Bent a former hedge fund manager who said "No problem I'm going to bring yields down Now yields are soaring This is causing major issues in the equity markets is causing issues at the banking level and as you're about to see could tip us into an allout global financial crisis The swift rise by pushing a borrowing cost across
• 01:00 - 01:30 the financial system is threatening to deliver another hit to the US economy that's already at a risk of recession as President Donald Trump's tariffs upend the world trading system And right now this is an issue for consumers because they need to see borrowing costs go down They're already struggling as delinquency rates are rising on credit cards and other consumer loans They need some relief here But what about the banks when the banks start to need cash what do they do they cut down on their lending activities And again we're in a debt-based economy that's powered by the
• 01:30 - 02:00 creation of new debt So this is a definitely strong sign that liquidity in the financial system is drying up and fast The move has raised fears of selling by overseas investors or a dash for cash as turmoil races through markets as everyone starts to ask questions Why is the Treasury market rapidly unwinding here is this unusual it's not supposed to happen We tend to only see it on the forefront of total crisis The surge in yields which affected everything from mortgage cost
• 02:00 - 02:30 to loan rates is working against what Treasury Secretary Scott Bassen has singled out as a key goal of Trump's economic policy helping consumers by pulling down borrowing costs He downplayed any worries of a systemic crisis by saying it was quote uncomfortable but normal deleveraging that's going on in the bond market and predicted it wouldn't persist Well he better hope it doesn't persist because if it does it means interest rates are going to skyrocket It means there's funding issues at the banking level And all of a sudden when liquidity seizes up
• 02:30 - 03:00 asset prices plunge We know what that means We've seen this game before We saw it back during the dotcom bubble We saw it during the global financial crisis Asset prices start to crash And who do we need to run to the rescue that's right the Federal Reserve So far they've been completely closed lip here Of course the question is will they have an emergency meeting will QE come back will interest rates come down that is the ultimate question Was this a planned move now by the Trump administration to drive up liquidity or is there something
• 03:00 - 03:30 else going on in the system let's take a look but I'd love to hear from you Weigh in the comments what you think is going on Other traders pointed to a deeper sense of worry and the possibility of hidden risks given the intensity of the self some pointed to the potential foreign selling of US debt and investors ditching whatever they can to quickly raise cash Now this makes some sense that we see during a trade war what happens you put barriers up global trade starts to grind to a halt and in response in retaliation the foreign
• 03:30 - 04:00 investors and central banks would say fine you want to have a trade war we'll just dump your debt onto the global market we'll drive interest rates up and we'll see who capitulates first Well the problem is that's not exactly what's happening here Although many people will say it's China who's dumping but China's been on a long trend of selling Treasury securities So that's not the real issue here because we can see and I showed you this chart of Treasury securities held by foreign institutions and foreign investors And let's go back to January 2022 where we see that China has
• 04:00 - 04:30 steadily been decreasing their treasury holdings And this is everything to do with global trade because when global trade is expanding while countries accumulate dollars and they recycle those dollars back into the United States by buying treasury securities So what we've seen from China is they've slowly been reducing their dependency on the US and that means their need for dollars But what happens in these situations when trade starts to drop there still is a demand for dollars because there's a huge amount of foreign hell dollar denominated debt This is
• 04:30 - 05:00 what's called the dollar shortage So it's normal to see selling here but in terms of panic selling to drive up yields it doesn't appear to be the case Another theory has been that hedge funds are being forced to rapidly unwind positions like in the case of the basis trade blow up of 2020 which might also be fueling additional market turmoil And now we're starting to get to the heart of what's really going on in the system is there's a massive amount of leverage by hedge funds in the Treasury securities market And as this starts to unwind wells causing liquidity issues in
• 05:00 - 05:30 the equity markets and causing mass panic across the banking system Some pointed to the abrupt collapse of a popular wager the treasuries would perform better than interest rate swaps And it appears that is the case as we're going into a negative spiral that isn't going to end well as US exceptionalism keeps being discounted Here we see the head of the currency strategy at Deutschbank says we're entering an uncharted territory in the global financial system and that if recent disruption in the US Treasury market continues we see no other option for the Fed to step in with emergency purchases
• 05:30 - 06:00 of US treasuries to stabilize the bond market So what we're seeing here is something called the basis trade start to unwind and we're going to go through that here in a moment But what is causing is banks and hedge funds and other institutions to massively unwind and very quickly their long treasury holdings Meaning what we're finding out is there no buyers because there's so many people selling So what this is suggesting is the Fed being the lender of last resort is going to have to run to the rescue to keep interest rates
• 06:00 - 06:30 from all out skyrocketing But something else should be headed up Well that's your trading account We put this trade on yesterday to our Momentum Timer Pro subscribers We told them to buy on the open of this green candlestick And while now stocks are still down bonds are headed down this is headed up How did we know well we didn't just look at the momentum indicators We validated this by the trend And again if you're trading momentum indicators what you find out is you get in late you get out early and there's a lot of false signals We've changed the game Grab the links in the description below Use that coupon code
• 06:30 - 07:00 for your first 30 days on me Stay tuned to the end of the show because let's talk about this basis trade that could blow up the bond market But if you want to trade bonds we'll tell you when to get back in The basis trade is a strategy hedge funds use to wager on the muscal gaps between the price of treasury securities and futures They typically borrow to multiply their bets up to 50 or 100 times capital invested Now I want you word here They typically borrow So when you create leverage you go out you borrow money and then you
• 07:00 - 07:30 leverage that into your trade So the key part to this is they're borrowing money Rough estimates put the amount of existing wages at about 1 trillion roughly double what it was 5 years ago the last time we saw a crisis in the banking system Now problems can arise when the market turmoil upends the economics of the trade It forces investors to rapidly unwind their position And here's the key part to repay their loans And that's one of the dangerous things about leverage And we talked about this back on our Sunday show that there's a lot of leverage in the equity market that could come
• 07:30 - 08:00 unwound if prices continue to fall Now you're seeing it happen in the treasury market And this is a major problem because it spills over not just into the equity markets but it causes problems in the banking system in a big way It can create a cascade effect that causes yields to surge and even worse if the Treasury market seized up much like what occurred back in 2020 And what happened back in 2020 banks failed We saw bank runs and next thing you know there was a massive liquidity crisis The Fed stepped
• 08:00 - 08:30 in and later on they said "We don't know what caused it and we don't even know if we fix it All we know is it went away and it's never coming back." You might remember back then we said "No that's not the case The problem wasn't fixed because they didn't know what the problem actually was." Now we're seeing all this leverage start to unwind a potential trillion dollars worth of bets meaning the Fed's going to have to step in in a massive way if this continues to unwind As Zero Hedge pointed out that it sure would be ironic if the basis trade blew up this week the Fed's hedge fund
• 08:30 - 09:00 bailout facility would need to be somewhere between 1.8 to 1.9 trillion give or take a few hundred billion And this is simply because they take on massive amounts of leverage And what they're seeing right now is because this trade is going the opposite direction Anytime you take leverage or borrow money to get into a trade and it starts to reverse on you well you've got to sell and sell fast because you've got to keep your loan from going bust And so that's what we're seeing here As more of these hedge funds are forced to sell the
• 09:00 - 09:30 market for treasuries goes illquid the price plummets interest rates skyrocket and this doesn't just impact the banks and of course the equity markets as we're about to talk about but think about it from the consumer perspective What does President Trump want he wants rates to come down so consumers will borrow and spend Scott Bent said "No problem I'm on the Treasury Secretary I can get rates to come down because the Fed won't cut rates." So now all of a sudden it's going to impact consumers who could see their credit card interest rate go up and their minimum payment go higher they could see their access to
• 09:30 - 10:00 the lending market drop because banks now prioritizing needing cash don't want to lend out of fear of another liquidity crisis So you can see right now the stakes are high The only question is when or if the Fed runs to the rescue And right now swaps are massively outperforming treasuries which are getting dumped and pushing swap rates far below treasury yields resulting in a negative swap spread rate or a negative feedback loop You talk about a doom loop where selling leads to of course swap rates falling even more leads to more
• 10:00 - 10:30 selling swap rates falling The only question is when does it stop now again Treasury Secretary Ben said no big deal This is just a temporary dislocation but it could be something worse I want to know what you think Is he right is it temporary or are we on the cusp of an allout financial crisis weigh in the comments below because the bottom line is that funds and banks are panic selling treasuries to raise cash while adding swaps to maintain exposure to interest rates leading to the record low spread between swap rates and treasuries
• 10:30 - 11:00 across the curve forcing even more unwinding The hedge fund manager attributed the moves and yields to the basis trace the scale of the broader hedge fund selling was quote destroying liquidity or the ability to easily buy selling assets across treasuries high-grade corporate bonds and mortgage back securities because what's interesting about this trade Now if you're wondering why does the Fed allow it if they know about this risk and they do the Treasury knows about it they all know about it is why do they do it because it puts liquidity into the
• 11:00 - 11:30 system When we put liquidity in the system it actually helps the stock market as well And it does affect stocks as Goldman noted that the E- Mini Topbook had just dropped to a record low 1.39 million even as stock trading volumes hit all-time highs resulting in insane roller coaster days The stocks rapidly rise and fall based on the news and moves of the market and what's causing that what does this mean by topbook liquidity well it means if you're going to come into the market and sell more than 1 million worth of E- Minis that's the S&P 500 futures What it
• 11:30 - 12:00 means is there's not enough buyers to absorb that sale order And it means price has to fall until it finds buyers If it doesn't it falls even more And it continues to fall Now in a healthy normally functioning market there's plenty of liquidity so buyers and sellers are matched and prices don't fluctuate that much which is why the VIX is at current level So what you're seeing here is this issue in the treasury market is spilling over into the equity market That lack of confidence then spills into the banks who are now starting to hge cash They don't want to lend because they're
• 12:00 - 12:30 afraid of going under And next thing you know for consumers it means they're iced out of of course being able to borrow at a time when we know consumers are cash strapped and definitely need to do that Which is why we saw refinances surge this last week as consumers take money from their one last place they can that is their home Of course we know how that played out during the last crisis and this multi-trillion basis trade is blowing up and countless funds and banks are unwinding position but there may not be enough liquidity in the system And
• 12:30 - 13:00 this is why many people are now saying the Fed will run to the rescue It's only a matter of when It could be of course today could be tomorrow The question is will it stop because a lack of liquidity shock wave is rampaging all across markets sending stocks plunging is affecting currency markets bond markets because this means there's an acute shortage of dollars as a global synthetic dollar short sitting around six trillion is even bigger than the basis trade So what you can see is as financial crisis start to brew it spills
• 13:00 - 13:30 over into other markets spills over into other trades and next thing you know you find out that the global markets are highly leveraged and subject to an complete annihilation And yet we have critical liquidity events such as today's 10-year auction tomorrow's 30-year auction The question is if the auctions fail and come out with very poor results how long will it be before the Fed runs to the rescue we don't know because Pal recently said that look we can't respond to what's going on because there's too much uncertainty But if the Treasury market goes they will come to
• 13:30 - 14:00 the rescue This is something that Democrats will be very unhappy about Of course we know Trump wants the Fed to step in here but this is the issue we're now facing Is any of this having to do with China well they responded last night as China raises tariffs on US goods to 84% as trade rift worsens What's interesting is many of you in the comments said China's going to be the winner here That there's no way we can Again this all comes down to the biggest question of all Whose economy is stronger the US or China's china's
• 14:00 - 14:30 economy is in far worse shape Now many of you said not a problem They're going to stimulate but no worries We've seen them do that and it doesn't work My bet is they're not going to come out the strongest but many of you said they would We'll find out soon enough As US Treasury Secretary Scott Bass branded Beijing's retaliation is quote unfortunate in an interview recently and urged China not to devalue the yuan Again we've made the case that that is likely what China will do But what you can see here as this trade war evolves that the ultimate goal was to get China
• 14:30 - 15:00 to the trading table and make a deal just like what happened under Trump's first term Problem is this time they don't want to make a deal They want to fight And so now we're seeing a huge pivot as such a move of devaluing the yan would be a tax on the world So notice the pivot here now is the tax would be on the entire global economy The Chinese actually don't want to come and negotiate because they're the worst offenders in the international trading system We can probably reach a deal with our allies and by the end of the day Bent said they've been good military
• 15:00 - 15:30 allies but not perfect economic allies and once we make a deal then we can approach China as a group So you're seeing the pivot here that China didn't respond as the administration hoped now looking to make deals with other countries and then take China on as a whole Again the question is whose economy is the strongest Keep in mind China's more dependent on us at the moment than we are We've got a lot of inventory and the inventory on the ships on their way isn't subject to the tariff giving us a little more latitude of runway than the Chinese economy has But
• 15:30 - 16:00 just because of what's going on it doesn't mean there's chaos in other markets Now as Texas wildcatterers are growing impatient with Trump as oil prices tank prices are now hovering around 60 a barrel below the level they say they need for new wells to break even according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas So think about this If we see prices go down of crude oil and oil companies can't break even by opening new wells what does it mean they're going to stop doing well it means they're going to stop drilling And what you're going to find out is that means the current new order book for Texas is
• 16:00 - 16:30 likely to plunge And when you compare this to West Texas intermediate crude prices shown in red you start to see a wonderful relationship show up after the global financial crisis And that is as crude oil prices rise shown in red What happens is the order book for Texas remains in positive territory But as oil prices fall look what happens to new orders as they go down So there is a strong relationship between the Texas economy and crude oil prices suggesting there's a big problem because if crude oil prices continue to go down or stay low well it means oil companies are not
• 16:30 - 17:00 going to drill And if you don't drill well you don't need labor And so now let's take a look at that current new order book for Texas still shown in blue now against continued unemployment claims in red And you can see going back into the global financial crisis new orders were coming down and continued claims were rising You can see the risk now that if oil prices fall it likely means the new order book in Texas is going to decline And that means workers are likely to hit the unemployment line And this is the risk for the US economy
• 17:00 - 17:30 Many of you said that "Wait a minute Steve We don't think you understand the risks here for the US The answer is I do understand them Just think China's economy is more likely to break first We'll find out how this all plays out in time So as I start out the show we're on the cusp of what could be a global financial crisis This one could be centered here in the United States on our banking system The sent better be right that this is temporary Either that or the Fed better run to the rescue and fast But just because the equity markets and bond markets might be melting down doesn't mean there's opportunities in
• 17:30 - 18:00 this market We see momentum trades are blowing up all across the board because when people trade just the oversold indicators What they find out is you can go from oversold to even more oversold in a flash But we look at not just the technical indicators on our momentum timer pro report but we also look at the trend And then what we saw yesterday is this opportunity flashed on a report and we've told our subscribers to buy at the open on this green candlestick and what you can see is the following day This today it has shot up and looking to
• 18:00 - 18:30 break out even higher Now how do we do this each and every day we run a screen on momentum across the one day one month three month and six month windows But we also added a historical overlay to add the trend into the signal So not only do we see when momentum is up we validate with the trend Increases the probabilities that the trades will be successful compared to just trading the technical indicators themselves But not only do you get the daily report because we've indicable signals but we integrated all
• 18:30 - 19:00 of that historical data and to give you of course the hot list of trades that we think are the best but on top of that I review each and every trade to give you my opinion on you Get full tracking of all trades and returns a weekly update and here's the best part Your first 30 days are on me And why do we do that because we're so confident you can make money training report We want you to come in without any money out of pocket Use the links in the description below Grab those coupon codes for your free 30-day trial And with that I'm Steve Anne Meter Thanks for watching Thanks
• 19:00 - 19:30 for being fans Bye now