Crypto & Tech Stocks CRASH - market update, AI bubble, Bitcoin

Summary

Highlights

• Tech stocks are experiencing significant declines, with major companies like Tesla and Nvidia seeing drops of around 30% and 20%, respectively. 📉
• Gold prices have risen sharply, increasing by 16-17% year-to-date, as investors seek safety. 🏆
• Concerns of an AI bubble arise, with Ray Dalio comparing the current trend to the 2000 dot-com bubble. 💥
• Bitcoin's position as 'digital gold' is debated, with geopolitical and generational trends suggesting its potential. 🥇
• There's a notable divergence between Bitcoin's hash rate and price, indicating potential market shifts. 🔍

Key Takeaways

• The crypto and tech stock markets are in decline, with Bitcoin and Ethereum dropping significantly. 📉
• Gold is the only asset seeing growth, suggesting a flight to safety among investors. 🏆
• There are warnings of an AI bubble forming as investments surpass current demand, similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble. 💥
• Bitcoin is seen as "digital gold" but has yet to outperform physical gold, though some believe it eventually will. 🥇
• Geopolitical dynamics view Bitcoin as a potential 'freedom money' in Western countries, compared to gold in Eastern nations. 🌍

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:00: Market Update and Economic Context The chapter titled 'Market Update and Economic Context' focuses on the downturn in various markets, including cryptocurrency and technology stocks. The speaker, Tech, shares that both Ethereum and Bitcoin are experiencing declines, and tech stocks are also suffering significant losses. This situation aligns with Tech's earlier predictions. The speaker emphasizes the extent of the economic contraction, suggesting that the current period is not conducive for making or seeking money, due to the broader economic downturn and technical challenges.
• 01:00 - 02:00: Tech and Crypto Market Analysis The chapter discusses the current stagnation in the tech and crypto markets, with a critical tone towards the emphasis on continuous building in the tech industry. The narrator dismisses some current programming projects as 'garbage' and 'AI slop', challenging the commonly held advice to learn coding in an era where AI is seen as replacing these skills with automation. They reference a suggestion made by 'the replete' advising against learning to code. Additionally, a brief analysis of market trends is provided, mentioning significant declines in stock values - Google down 20% year-to-date, Ethereum down 8%, and Facebook by an unspecified amount. The mention of Bollinger Bands indicates a focus on technical analysis as part of the market discussion.
• 02:00 - 03:00: Flight to Safety: Gold and AI Bubble The chapter discusses the current state of the stock market with a focus on major companies like Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, all experiencing significant declines in their stock values year-to-date. The overall economy is also not performing well. The S&P 500 index is down 5%. In contrast, gold has seen a noticeable increase, rising by approximately 16-17% year-to-date. The chapter highlights a trend where investors are moving away from equities and are gravitating towards safer assets like gold, indicating a 'flight to safety' due to economic uncertainties.
• 03:00 - 04:00: US and China Perspectives on Bitcoin and Gold The US and China have differing views on investments, focusing on Bitcoin and Gold. There is skepticism in the US about the AI-driven tech stock hype, as many believe an AI bubble is forming due to excessive investments. With doubts about the economy, investors are leaning towards safer options like gold.
• 04:00 - 05:00: Bitcoin's Value Proposition and Cross-Analytics The chapter begins by discussing the views of Alibaba Group Chairman Joe Tsai, who is surprised by the massive investments in AI data centers, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. Tsai believes that these investments are premature given the current demand. The chapter then shifts to Ray Dalio, a well-known hedge fund investor, who warns of a bubble in US AI tech stocks. Dalio compares the current cycle to the 2000.com bubble, suggesting that while there is significant new technology with the potential to change the world, the ensuing investment frenzy may not be justified.
• 05:00 - 06:00: BTC vs ETH: Market Trends and Predictions The chapter explores the comparison between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in terms of their market trends and future predictions. It references insights from Kyu Lee and former Google AI computer scientists. The discussion touches on the operational costs and sustainability of AI models, specifically comparing OpenAI's projected operating cost of $7 billion in 2024 to DeepSeek's more efficient model operating at only 2% of these costs. The key issue highlighted is not the marginal superiority of one model over another, since they are all quite proficient, but rather whether OpenAI's model can remain viable against formidable competitors with significantly lower operating expenses.
• 06:00 - 07:00: Ethereum's Position and Market Strategy In this chapter, the discussion revolves around Ethereum's current positioning in the market and its strategic approach moving forward. Sam Alman is likely experiencing restlessness due to the evolving market dynamics. The conversation taps into insights from a previous analysis on the state of the crypto market and tech projections for 2025. While Bitcoin is often considered a reliable asset for preserving value, it hasn't fully realized this potential yet because many investors still prefer physical gold over its digital counterpart. However, the belief is that digital gold, such as Bitcoin, will eventually surpass physical gold, despite some initial resistance due to its intangible nature.
• 07:00 - 08:00: Investment Strategies in a Shrinking Economy The chapter discusses investment strategies in the context of a shrinking economy. It highlights the generational shift in asset preference, noting that the older generation, which is often uncomfortable with digital-only assets, is being replaced by millennials and other digital-native generations. Furthermore, the political dynamics between the West and East are explored, with the US and Western countries viewing Bitcoin as 'freedom money,' due to its uncensored and permissionless nature, allowing cross-border transactions and ownership. Meanwhile, BRICS nations are embracing physical gold as their preferred investment asset.
• 08:00 - 09:00: Economic Theories and Bitcoin's Future The chapter discusses the interplay between economic theories and Bitcoin's future, with a focus on how nations like China and Russia navigate international restrictions. It highlights how these countries might use gold as a means to circumvent sanctions and tariffs. Moreover, it explores how, due to restrictions on Bitcoin, citizens are turning to gold as a safe haven. The chapter posits that Bitcoin might have an advantage, especially in authoritarian countries, as a more flexible asset compared to traditional gold investments.
• 09:00 - 10:00: Conclusion and Future Outlook The chapter discusses the potential future of Bitcoin as a globally accepted financial asset, highlighting its political and practical advantages over traditional assets like gold. It envisions a scenario where Bitcoin can be freely exchanged for high-value assets like real estate in major Western cities, enhancing personal financial freedom. The conclusion emphasizes the significant political value of Bitcoin, suggesting it could be exponentially more beneficial than gold, due to its portable and versatile nature for use in global transactions.

Crypto & Tech Stocks CRASH - market update, AI bubble, Bitcoin Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 all right tech here welcome back it's been a while since we did one of these videos and I wanted to just give you a market update so the markets are on fire quite literally the crypto markets Ethereum tanking Bitcoin down and the stock markets tech is down as well pretty much as I had predicted in my earlier video on the state of crypto state of tech you know the age of making money is over just people should not even be working right now because there's absolutely nothing to do we are in economic contraction and technical
• 00:30 - 01:00 stagnation and everybody's saying build keep building build what are you vibe coding some 3D garbage tutorial game some AI slop I mean this is all garbage okay get out of here the replete even said don't learn to code all code will be I generated it would be a waste of time to to learn learn how to code let's take a look at some bowlinger bands here year to date Google is down 20% Ethereum down 8% Facebook down about
• 01:00 - 01:30 6% or so Tesla down 30% year to date and the economy is not doing well now microsoft down about 10% Apple down 10% S&P 500 negative 5% okay and Nvidia Nvidia down like 20% year-to- date and really the only asset that has actually gone up this year is gold right we can see gold is up like 16 17% here year to date and so there's really just a flight to safety right now people are just getting out of equities getting out of
• 01:30 - 02:00 tech stocks because nobody really believes in this economy and all of the AI hype that people are saying is so bullish and you know like the VCs out there they're trying to convince you that all of this is a thing because they just invested so much of their own money into this and they need to get a return on it but the investors are just not really buying any of this and a lot of people are just getting to a safe haven getting to go so an AI bubble may be forming in the US tech sector you may want to get out the crosshairs here with
• 02:00 - 02:30 Alibaba Group Chairman Joe Thai just astounded at hundreds of billions $500 billion being thrown around for AI data centers and he said "I just don't think that's entirely necessary people are investing way ahead of actual demand that we're seeing today." Ray Dalio hedge fund investor also recently warned of a bubble in US AI tech stocks where we are in the cycle right now is very similar to basically the 2000.com buzz he noted in other words there is major new technology that will change the world but that does not necessarily mean
• 02:30 - 03:00 your investments will be successful and here's what Kyu Lee and ex Google AI computer scientists had to say if you think about OpenAI's cost of $7 billion of operating cost in 2024 DeepSeek probably operated with 2% the operating expense so the issue really isn't whose model is 1% better i think they're all very good but the issue is is OpenAI's model even sustainable right with that kind of formidable competitor I think uh
• 03:00 - 03:30 Sam Alman is probably not sleeping well yeah well and in my prior video on the state of crypto state of tech 2025 I had mentioned well Bitcoin would be a decent asset preservation strategy as well that has not completely played out yet okay because even though Bitcoin is digital gold a lot of people have been going for the real thing in physical gold and my belief is eventually Bitcoin the digital version of gold will overtake physical gold it's just inevitable there may be some hesitation because it's intangible
• 03:30 - 04:00 and some people are uncomfortable with digital only assets like computers but this older generation is fading out to be replaced by millennials digital native generations and we're also seeing a west versus east political dynamic where the US and the west is embracing bitcoin as freedom money right this is uncensored permissionless and you can take it across borders you can use it you can keep it and then on the east with the bricks nations they are embracing physical gold and this is
• 04:00 - 04:30 censored permissioned capitalcontrolled assets where you know you can't take it around you can't really use it rumors are nations like China and Russia are using goat for payment ments to get around sanctions and tariffs which may be driving up the price not to mention with these nations restricting Bitcoin citizens have little choice but to escape to gold as a safe haven and the reason Bitcoin may win here is if you were to go to the east and you were to ask anybody in China Russia you know these dictatorship countries with high
• 04:30 - 05:00 capital controls if they would like Bitcoin where it's going to be accepted as legal asset in any of these western countries you could take the Bitcoin and exchange it for real estate in Manhattan if you like you could just have a great life in the US with the Bitcoin then people would say "Well that sounds like freedom money." And they would probably take you up on that as opposed to just having all of their assets locked in a country and so politically Bitcoin is 10x or even 100x more valuable than gold because you can actually take it and use
• 05:00 - 05:30 it across the world in places you actually want to have assets so this is going to be a historic year for Bitcoin and if you want to celebrate and partake in the festivities in real life you can check out the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas May 27 to May 29 is at the Venetian with featured speakers like Michael Sailor himself the Bitcoin maximalist legend Senator Cynthia Lumis champion of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill Adam Bach one of the OG Bitcoin developers and a whole host of special guests and speakers the Bitcoin
• 05:30 - 06:00 2025 conference is the go-to event for anyone curious or passionate about Bitcoin it is more than just a conference it's an immersive experience aimed at inspiring educating and connecting the global Bitcoin community featuring a lineup of top speakers and educators for organic learning and networking opportunities there's parties after shows it's going to be a lot of fun you can make it a fun trip if you are interested I have a special discount I've set up for you actually for 10% off so there will be a link in the description below special discounted
• 06:00 - 06:30 pricing for the Bitcoin conference 2025 just for tech lead viewers May 27 to May 29th this year now if we take a look at gold it's at an all-time high i mean over the past year it is up 30% and arguably gold may have had this run and investors may be looking at this and thinking the physical version has run up so much at this point maybe pick up some digital gold too and in fact if we take a look at the hash rate and the hash
• 06:30 - 07:00 rate is really one of the only and best predictors of Bitcoin price we can see that hash rate versus price has diverged here and this is a major indicator that I think everybody should be looking into it is one of the most solid indicators that I watch to predict Bitcoin price and so we can see here on the one year on the 6 months on the 3 months the price has diverged and typically you'll see that the hash rate which is the difficulty of the Bitcoin network and really just how solid and fundamentally strong this network is corresponds with
• 07:00 - 07:30 the price and so we can see anytime the price and hash rate diverge eventually the price catches up or if the hash rate runs up too much the price will come down and if you were to peg this at the market price it would estimate at around 100 105k or so would be fair market value for Bitcoin based on the hash price now if you follow me on X one of the calls I've started going into has been BTC ETH which is long Bitcoin short ETH and if you take a look at this you
• 07:30 - 08:00 can actually measure the chart on Trading View you'll see this ratio is at an all-time high too as well here is skyrocketing at about 45 and this trade BTC ETH I mean it is it's going parabolic it's skyrocketing basically and it is obviously outperforming Bitcoin it's outperforming ETH in fact I can chart Bitcoin here against it and so we can see here year to date Bitcoin down 13% ETH down a stunning 46% while BTC ETH if you had gone into this you'd
• 08:00 - 08:30 be up 60% you would be deep in the green on this trade and the reason is by going long BTC and short ETH it's a much cleaner signal actually which isolates out a lot of the market and macroeconomic trends right like we could be in a recession there could be technical stagnation economic contraction the globalization tariffs a shrinking world and yet by shorting ETH you isolate the alpha of Bitcoin so it's a cleaner signal that removes the
• 08:30 - 09:00 macroeconomic risk we can see in the past 5 days BTC ETH up 7.5% bitcoin down 6% Ethereum down 12% and so this is really the alpha of Bitcoin above the other cryptocurrencies it is Bitcoin dominance essentially and there are markets there are periods where just nothing goes up no matter what you invest in you know I've seen markets where even gold will go down just everything goes down the only thing that holds value is maybe the dollar perhaps and really the only way to make
• 09:00 - 09:30 money would be to short and you'll see that in like recessions and economic contraction which we may be in actually so BTC is kind of my new favorite play now some people would say "Well what's wrong with ETH?" Right maybe ETH could move faster and higher than Bitcoin isn't ETH just like higher volatility Bitcoin higher beta Bitcoin well no not really in fact if we take a look at ETH
• 09:30 - 10:00 BTC we can see that Ethereum has been in a downtrend here really ever since the merge in around September of 2022 and the entire narrative that it would be the silver to Bitcoin's gold has been broken i mean the narrative no longer even holds at all that Ethereum would be a store of value that it could compete with Bitcoin or that the flipping could happen someday i mean this entire narrative is completely broken and if it's not silver then it's nothing and meanwhile the Ethereum Foundation continues to only sell
• 10:00 - 10:30 Ethereum nobody's accumulating this stuff no institutions not even the Ethereum Foundation itself it's not like we have micro sailors and GameStops and companies and nations accumulating any of this stuff everybody is offloading and trying to sell it as fast as they can wherever they can and you'll notice this year a lot of the wallets have been removing Ethereum completely they're actively removing it deeming Ethereum too complicated for the mainstream masses and normies and they need to just get rid of it and just cover gas fees in
• 10:30 - 11:00 other ways you know like through auto conversion of USDC stable coins or just covering the gas fees for you now I've also heard a lot of people say well isn't Ethereum really valuable because it's the infrastructure it's the highways that a lot of these tokens and stable coins are running on that's the infrastructure but just because something's useful does not make it valuable like water is useful the utility company is useful power gas electric telephone companies but just
• 11:00 - 11:30 because something is a central infrastructure does not make it valuable especially if it's a commodity and so arguably the only value out here may just be Bitcoin and some stable coins and so what I like to check here is the BDC ETH ratio because ETH is exit retail liquidity essentially it is just right a bunch of retail traders who are just still betting on this anytime you see a crypto rally and if you see ETH starting to run up ahead of Bitcoin then that is not a real rally that's a fake rally
• 11:30 - 12:00 because the only real rallies are the ones where Bitcoin leads and so you can see here ETH is getting ahead of itself it thinks it can run up fast then it's going to collapse anytime ETH starts getting ahead of itself the rally is going to be fake it has to come back down and otherwise infrastructure is not value now if you buy into this vision of BTC ETH there's various techniques you can do like you know you could do it on a centralized exchange you could go on leverage long BTC short ETH maybe 10x or so you could do it on hyperlquid more of
• 12:00 - 12:30 a defi type of way you could also go on defy apps like a moonwell and you would supply collateral whether it's BTC or USDC stable coins and you can borrow Ethereum against that and then swap it into either a stable coin earn some yield on the stable coins or just swap it into BTC and double down on that and that essentially creates a short position you know the other thing you could do is play on the sideways action like do some liquidity farming on it you say on aerodyome you would do like CBBDC
• 12:30 - 13:00 USDC liquidity pools but my overall view is we may see some sideways action really for the rest of this year especially as Trump is playing around with his tariffs we're seeing some deglobalization and it's a shrinking world let me tell you something about tariffs you know the thing about tariffs is you can't necessarily just force math on people that can't math you can't force manufacturing on people that can't manufacture and so it's not like suddenly Americans are going to be able
• 13:00 - 13:30 to manufacture stuff or have a good work ethic or be willing to work cheap and put in long hours like we just don't have that and like that's not what we're here to do people don't want to do that you have to import massive H-1B labor forces in order to fill the factory floors that you're trying to manufacture locally in the homeland with because normal Americans were not we're just not going to do that we're not going to work for slave labor like that normal Americans want fast money quick money i mean this is the generation of fast
• 13:30 - 14:00 money we want the Lambos crypto millionaires influencers you got Only Fans Tik Tok like the Hawk tour girl who just iconic right that's the millennial dream overnight you go viral turn that into a podcast with millions of views then launch a memecoin 30 days in and out you're done i mean that is the new American dream but what we can see is that the recession we've seen so far has essentially been manufactured through the tariffs through policies with interest rates and you know it's not
• 14:00 - 14:30 real because we still have a lot of levers and controls we can dial around if the pain gets too high and so that's one reason to be semibullish if the economy really starts to see some pain we'll just drop the tariffs and drop interest rates to zero right we can always do that and then we can even start printing money as well so what does it take for Bitcoin to go up i think we need to see a bullish economy with wealth flowing into the economy and this gets into something I've been personally fascinated with which is GDP
• 14:30 - 15:00 versus GNI which is gross national income and GDP is really a poor measure of economic health because GDP really just measures economic activity and so for example building a bridge to nowhere is positive GDP building games in which people play that is positive GDP although these are really zero economic activity zero sum it doesn't create any additional wealth for the country and so there's no additional wealth to flow into Bitcoin necessarily right in fact
• 15:00 - 15:30 the country may even be stagnating or uh shrinking and if it's a shrinking economy then you're going to see risks to all asset classes right they could all be going down and so we want a growing economy growth is perhaps better measured by gross national income GNI which is really import and so what we really need to do I think as a country is like we go to Africa and we say we're going to build your entire city for us and you're going to pay us and that is net inflows into
• 15:30 - 16:00 the country right we need to bring in income we need to invite hundreds of millions of tourists to shop in our stores and to visit our country and spend their money and that is net inflows of wealth into the country but if all we're doing is like we're making Tik Tok in order to get ourselves addicted and then we watch videos on Tik Tok how is this positive growth it's positive GDP but doesn't actually make the country any richer by just making a video app and having everybody watch videos now and so really for Bitcoin to
• 16:00 - 16:30 go up we need a positive bullish economy positive growth national income coming up for people to have the funds to buy that stuff or perhaps just mass retail adoption anyways that's all I've got for you today maybe it's just positioning nowadays perhaps going short in an era where nothing really goes up in a shrinking economy with deflation in a shrinking world tariffs everywhere in a low opportunity era perhaps that's what we're going through that'll do it for me let me know your thoughts and comments
• 16:30 - 17:00 see you in the next one