E629 Acts 10:4 - 77b CAT Errors! Ending strongly over max pain again, let's go GME!

Summary

Highlights

• Richard starts by reflecting on a biblical passage, creating a unique market-faith analogy.📘
• He dives into the world of GameStop stocks, dissecting intricate market strategies.📊
• Legacy swaps and CAT errors add layers of market intrigue, prompting speculation.🤔
• Roaring Kitty's trading brilliance keeps the audience captivated with strategic genius.🎯
• The video ends with hopeful anticipations for future stock movements and trading insights.🏁

Key Takeaways

• Remember, faith can provide insights even into stock markets.🔮
• Legacy swaps and CAT errors offer mysterious twists in the trading saga.🕵️‍♂️
• Roaring Kitty continues to inspire with stealthy trading maneuvers.😺
• Market dynamics can be as intricate and surprising as a biblical tale.📖
• Watch for historical patterns in trading; they might just repeat themselves.⏳

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:30: Introduction: Significance of Good Friday and Biblical Insights The chapter introduces the significance of Good Friday and delves into biblical insights, focusing on the vision of Cornelius from Acts 10:4. Cornelius encounters the angel of the Lord, which initiates a discussion on the identity of this angel. The speaker shares personal reflections on the possibility of the Angel being Jesus, as he appears to various Biblical figures in both Old and New Testament narratives.
• 01:30 - 04:30: Pokemon Talk and GameStop Discussions This chapter focuses on the deep religious resonance and personal reflections on the significance of Jesus appearing as a guiding figure, particularly on the day of crucifixion. The chapter highlights the Christian belief in Jesus taking on the sins of the world despite being sinless, and extends an invitation to listeners who may not have embraced faith yet.
• 04:30 - 08:30: CFTC, Dodd-Frank, and Swaps Analysis The chapter discusses concepts related to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Dodd-Frank Act, and swaps analysis. A personal reflection on faith and spirituality is also expressed, emphasizing belief and a personal transformation through faith in God.
• 08:30 - 10:30: GameStop Legacy Swaps and Attorney General's Involvement The chapter begins with the speaker reflecting on an undefined accomplishment that has changed lives and remains impactful over the years, expressing gratitude towards God for this success. Following this, there is a transition to a lighter topic involving Pokemon, specifically discussing the contents of an Elite Trainer Box (ETB) received from GameStop. The promo card from the ETB is highlighted, featuring N's Zora.
• 10:30 - 15:30: Swaps, Archagos Trial, and GameStop Speculations This chapter centers around discussions related to swaps, the Archagos trial, and the GameStop stock speculations. The conversation touches on grading Pokemon cards as a fun activity but becomes a daunting task when it turns into an ongoing commitment. The speaker then transitions to discuss several intriguing topics of the day, suggesting that there is always something noteworthy to cover in the financial and investment worlds.
• 15:30 - 19:30: CAT Errors and Potential Market Implications The chapter titled 'CAT Errors and Potential Market Implications' discusses issues related to the GameStop trading events, focusing particularly on feedback from a community that provided more insights regarding the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission). The speaker reflects on the difficulty of multitasking—specifically parsing complex topics and speaking concurrently. Two divisions within the CFTC, the MPD and DCR, are identified as being responsible for issuing a 'no action relief letter' in response to these trading events.
• 19:30 - 24:30: GameStop Price Movements and Market Mechanics The chapter discusses the mechanics behind GameStop's price movements, focusing on financial instruments such as pre-Dodd-Frank swaps. These swaps, enacted before 2008, are questioned for their relevance in 2025, highlighting the handling of longstanding swaps that could influence market dynamics. The back-end financial operations, particularly those dealing with such old swaps, are crucial in understanding the market scenario surrounding the GameStop episode.
• 24:30 - 30:30: GME Settlement, CAT Errors, and Institutional Ownership The chapter discusses various financial products, specifically swaps, and how legislation such as Dodd-Frank has influenced their regulation. Swaps, along with options, equities, and ETFs, are categorized as financial products. The chapter elaborates on how older swaps were governed by different rule sets, but post-2008, new regulations mandated by Dodd-Frank altered their operational rules. This change highlights the evolving nature of financial regulations and their impact on existing financial instruments.
• 30:30 - 36:30: XRT Events, Historical Patterns, and Market Analysis The chapter delves into XRT events, historical patterns, and market analysis, focusing on swaps and subtypes with pre-Dodd-Frank regulations. It highlights the continuation of specific products up to 2017, based on current research. The narrative notes potential errors due to shallow research but mentions that legacy products can continue under certain conditions, though rolling expired products into new ones is not feasible.
• 36:30 - 41:30: Treasury Markets and Their Impact on GameStop The chapter discusses the concept of rolling over options into new expiries and introduces a new product swap type with updated rules. It is highlighted that old products can be modified to extend their lifespan by maintaining their legacy characteristics, especially if they have long or no expiry periods, thus allowing them to continue indefinitely without substantial changes to their fundamental nature.
• 41:30 - 47:30: Roaring Kitty's Strategy and GameStop Options This chapter discusses Roaring Kitty's investment strategy, particularly focusing on options related to GameStop (GME) stock. It delves into the technicalities of swaps, especially older ones involving Credit Suisse and UBS, and how these might be impacting GME. The text touches on the complexity of these financial products and their regulation, and acknowledges the uncertainty regarding the extent to which GameStop is affected.
• 47:30 - 52:00: Technical Analysis and Roaring Kitty's Speculative Moves In this chapter, the discussion centers around the financial intricacies involved in single equity exposures, specifically relating to GameStop. These positions would have originated at the latest by 2017, and while they might have been adjusted over time, there are constraints such as notional value that limit modifications. The narrative reflects on current research status and extends gratitude to commenters for their contributions.
• 52:00 - 57:00: Conclusion: Reflection on GameStop and Roaring Kitty This chapter reflects on the potential link between legacy financial swaps and the GameStop situation, as discussed by an analyst. Although these swaps are old, predating 2017, there remains some speculation about their relevance to the GameStop events. The discussion also touches on UBS, hinting that despite the age of these swaps, the financial institution might still encounter interesting challenges related to GameStop. The chapter concludes without definitive answers but opens up possibilities for further exploration.

E629 Acts 10:4 - 77b CAT Errors! Ending strongly over max pain again, let's go GME! Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 good morning everybody happy Friday happy Good Friday uh we're going to speak here about Acts 10:4 cornelius has a vision of the angel of the Lord appearing to him and when he looked upon him he was afraid and said "What is it Lord?" And he said unto him "Thy prayers and thine arms are come up for memorial before God." And it just makes me think I've always wondered who this character is in the Bible the angel of the Lord i've always thought it could be Jesus because he appears in the Old Testament to these various characters in the Bible and then here in the New Testament as
• 00:30 - 01:00 well and what an amazing thing that would be to have Jesus appear to you uh representing the Lord and especially in this case saying good job my good and faithful son so I I just on this particular day you know such an important day in the Christian faith because it is the day the day of the crucifixion so Jesus took on the sin of the world even though he was sinless and he made a way for us and for anyone maybe listening in that's not a believer or you haven't uh accepted Jesus into
• 01:00 - 01:30 your heart consider the importance of that that God loves you so much despite anything you might have done he's known you before and he'll know you long after and he died for you he gave it for you because he knew that he needed to make a way for us uh and that way is belief and once you start to believe this magical thing starts happening in your heart and it's happened to me and I don't know I don't know how it works but it does so thank you God thank you for doing that i
• 01:30 - 02:00 don't know how you did it uh but you did and here we are all these years later and it's still changing hearts and that shows me just how powerful it really is so uh amazing day in the Christian faith uh so thank you God so let's go ahead and talk about the Pokemon of the day nice transition every time right so we opened our ETB thank you again to GameStop uh and we got the promo card so this is the promo that comes in the ETB this is N's Zora zora is like a really
• 02:00 - 02:30 popular Pokemon cool little cuddly guy so here we go uh could get this guy graded i was thinking like that'd be kind of fun to like get the promos from the set graded but then it becomes like this thing you got to do it all the time i don't know once you once you lock yourself in then you're grading a lot of Pokemon so we'll see about that uh let's go ahead and talk about a couple a couple topics here there's a lot of really good ones today it's like how can there always be something good
• 02:30 - 03:00 to talk about with uh GameStop and there is so in particular a couple of people chimed in in the comments yesterday which was great to provide more clarity on this issue of the CFTC this is the Comm Commodities Futures Trading Commission and I had yesterday it's hard when you're trying to parse things and speak at the same time it's like I was like what's the MPD and the DCR it's like they're right there the mark so there's these two divisions at the CFTC they're the ones doing this no action relief letter
• 03:00 - 03:30 thing uh and people had said "Hey Newton these specifically apply to pre-DoddFrank swaps uh that was enacted in 2008." And I was like "Could that be true could these only be swaps that are older than 2008?" I'm like "What year are we in it's 2025 so are these swaps all 17 years old?" Is question number one and so what they're saying happened here is you've got this basically back desk that handles these swaps especially these
• 03:30 - 04:00 really old ones that have certain rule sets and so in finance anything produced is called a product right an option is a class of product equities are a product etfs are a products swaps are a product and so this batch of this product these types of swaps has certain rules then DoddFrank put into place in 2008 new rules so they changed the way the products work the swaps work and now any swaps made after that point had to have these new rules all right so these all
• 04:00 - 04:30 the ones all this particular product these swaps and this subtype that had these pre- DoddFrank rules what is important is I think that they were able to continue making these particular products through 2017 i could be wrong on that but that's where my research is at right now on this i'm not digging like super deep or anything and it is possible for them to continue you can't roll them like if the if this legacy product is set to expire and it expires and then you roll you create a new one
• 04:30 - 05:00 like you would do with an option and roll into a new expiry your new one would need to be this new product swap type and and have the new rules on it but what they could do according to what I've read is take the old product modify it uh and if it maybe had like a super long expiry or maybe no expiry i don't know some of these don't even have an expiry uh you could keep it going indefinitely and just keep modifying it and it would still inherit the legac because it's not really changing what it is so I wouldn't even say it's an
• 05:00 - 05:30 inheriting it's just maintaining its legacy status and you're changing a few characteristics of it and they allowed that to happen so on these very very old swaps and again I don't know how many there are this could be a really small issue honestly this could be small swaps there could be other swaps that are huge not saying that there's not a swap issue going on from Credit Swiss to UBS they may or may not contain GameStop that's also important from my research it seems like these legacy swap products with these uh like extent uh rule sets could
• 05:30 - 06:00 contain single equity exposure so they could be GameStop related but they'd be old they would have been entered into at the latest 2017 but maybe have been modified continually over time but there are particular limitations on what they could modify so that has to do with like notional value and other things so that's where my research is at on this so I wanted to thank the commenters that
• 06:00 - 06:30 said "Hey you're kind of mudding the waters here this isn't any swaps this is a very specific type of swap and they're old and that's true so at the latest I think it's 2017 so that would be like eight years ago so could it be GameStop related or not i don't know like I'm I'm not sold on the idea that these are GameStop related super old legacy swaps but maybe maybe we'll leave it out there um and UBS certainly could still even without this issue be having interesting issues with GameStop still theoretically
• 06:30 - 07:00 um I try not to make any strong claims here and I always say theoretically or hypothetically you know we know Credit Swiss was dealing with Archagos we know a couple other key prime brokers were dealing with Archagos we don't know what Archagos' short side position was we know that they had about a $50 billion short exposure there at the at the top of the whole thing could have been anything it's never been disclosed but we do know that in the trial GameStop did come up so in their internal communications at Archaos the leadership
• 07:00 - 07:30 of the company was saying "What's happening to our long position is it going GameStop on us?" So that kind of implies that their short position could have been GameStop why would they be talking about GameStop so this is a big what if a big maybe um not making any strong claims not trying to get sued all right so but somebody I think is pretty clearly in the hole on GameStop still and is fighting tooth and nail with GameStop we don't know who it is uh it could be anybody could be a bunch of
• 07:30 - 08:00 people i think it's a bunch of parties cuz they're always like wrapped up party to counterparty hedge fund to to prime and if you watch the big short you see how they're all interrelated all their different desks even within their own offices will be taking bets against each other's desks so could be a bunch of different parties and counterparty risk is going to be like a huge issue which you saw as well if you go back I would recommend over the weekend watch the big short again it's so interesting because they're like hey by the way we we don't even know if we're going to get paid out here if our
• 08:00 - 08:30 counterparty blows up on us you know we should take profits now because they may not exist tomorrow so that's the issue here as well is the counterparty exposure which was you know part of the thing going on here so the positions the swaps were moved these very old legacy swaps love the term to legacy swaps but they were moved from Credit Swiss's back desk their old swap desk to UBS's and did they inform their counterparties of that move and
• 08:30 - 09:00 they're basically saying well the court ordered it to be moved so like why should we have to notify the counterparty so kind of interesting did the counterparties even know that this was going on uh kind of matters right if you're the counterparty to a trade and you don't know that your your counterparty just blew up and some new counterparty inherited it um you should probably know that it's kind of like your mortgage right they should notify you uh who they if they sell your mortgage to somebody else a new lender probably good to know um or if you sell
• 09:00 - 09:30 your house you should probably the lender should probably know that someone else is now paying the mortgage not you so they can have a risk profile for that person so anyway um that's that conversation i think that's a really good one i think the other one we have to talk about right away before getting into anything else is cat errors so great job region formal had pointed out in the last batch of cat errors which seemed like FINRA didn't want to report and I wanted to point out someone asked a question about cat errors and fails to deliver i don't know that they're related but let's look i don't know if
• 09:30 - 10:00 they're the same thing i don't even I don't even think we know what a cat error is it could be a bunch of things but in this batch there are a lot of fails to deliver especially on ETFs not GameStop there's a lot of missing data on GameStop if this is missing like there's a abundant there's an abundant lack of fails to deliver on GameStop on these days so that's that's clear but is it is it related to fails to deliver we get the fail data from the SEC which comes from the NYSE the CAT trail or the
• 10:00 - 10:30 consolidated asset uh trail program is run by FINRA and it seems like now FINRA a lot of their responsibilities are going to be moved to the SEC uh because FINRA is that a government organization i think it's like a self-reported organization right so what is this data why are they increasing so much and why do we now all of a sudden have this giant batch that wasn't going to be reported then people messaged FINRA said "Hey you guys have to be reporting this." And they said "All right we'll do
• 10:30 - 11:00 that." Uh region formal saying that within 35 calendar days and 70 calendar days you typically see a big move on GameStop remember these errors are in the billions but are marketwide but it seems like the whole market tracks GameStop not the other way around all right so what just happened we had this gigantic fail this is uh reported yesterday or not fail uh nothing
• 11:00 - 11:30 significant just in the millions here no big deal just millions of errors and then all of a sudden boom 77.6 billion errors so let's uh how are we going to do this let's pull this over here and then drop them on the chart so where did all these errors happen they happened on and let's see I haven't looked at the dates yet it'll be April even April 3rd had half of 600 million
• 11:30 - 12:00 that's I that seems significant so let's go and look at these dates so April 3rd was the first one yeah market drops 5% you see the exercising or selling of all these uh um in the money puts these deep in the money 125ps they all vanished that day and I think Ryan Cohen bought here so and then you see 600 million 594 million caters all right so that's where it
• 12:00 - 12:30 begins the next day not that many games hits its low on 44 deep deep lowtop then rips So the market goes down another 5% but GameStop goes up 11% hard to believe that was just like two weeks ago i don't know feels like yesterday and yet feels like a lifetime ago the next day GameStop's moving they've completely looted XRT again so very rare event they did it back here down to 2.7 million shares to blow up XRT to begin the down run in
• 12:30 - 13:00 late February blowed up again right at the bottom and then we see huge cat errors this day 14.5 is that billion yeah billion cat errors that seems significant because then it's consecutive days now so now we go to the eth and there's 18.5 billion this day we didn't get a tailwind and so
• 13:00 - 13:30 but we did get enormous maybe that's why um maybe we did not see an OPEX event like an XRT opex tail one event here let me pray this out as well i think I usually do like this color and it doesn't happen and then so the bond market completely maybe it's bond market causing all these errors to happen so there's this tariff shuffle um I'm going to say here market market
• 13:30 - 14:00 bounce house and then this day this is now the 9th you see 21.7 billion CAT errors marketwide that's the most we've ever seen and now you've got you know basically a full week of this happening and then now it goes up even more so on this day you've got um Allen or Elaine Bias so let's do
• 14:00 - 14:30 so we'll do this need to like abbreviate some of this make space here sometimes there's just too much information so he bought and I'm still curious why he bought a week later very curious we get the introduction of this new leveraged GameStop ETF ubs has their annual meeting we have no idea what came from that annual
• 14:30 - 15:00 meeting and then we have um an additional Yeah that's 23 billion cat errors there we go so altogether 77.6 six or so billion cat errors on this week when we literally like come off the bottom and start moving back up so like you can look at the chart here that's right in here 77 billion right that's right is that April
• 15:00 - 15:30 um 3rd through the 10th so all through GameStop starts moving all in here 77 billion cate so uh what does that mean that means that 35 calendar days out we have to kind of track that so let's look at that because right now on the calendar I have the following things looking forward good good time to pivot into and let's um All right we'll screenshot this thank you again region formal you're the best love the blue boxes and love just
• 15:30 - 16:00 how clean the DD always is it's like hey here's the things make a vote what you will and then um other people can dig in more so here we go so we got we got here April so this happened April 7th through 10th uh 77.6 billion cat errors seems significant so what does
• 16:00 - 16:30 this possibly mean well on here for next week what could we run into on Monday since we ended over max pain I had said earlier in the week probably come in right below the 27 C's because like in November seemed like they wanted to defend those very very strongly right here 27 C's so we did that looks remarkably similar came in at 26.78 and then in the after hours we
• 16:30 - 17:00 moved up right actually we moved up a bunch in the after hours so what's that about i'm guessing maybe people were like "Okay we're going to need shares for delivery on Saturday morning on the 265s we did not anticipate getting assigned on so quickly go out buy some shares have those for delivery the following morning." So could they already be trying to get shares for settlement that's what I see this as but let me know because it seems seems odd uh so
• 17:00 - 17:30 could we see more of that because I think settlement of options because it's on a T+1 and it's you have to do it you have to deliver the OC like doesn't mess around on this is so critical here so could we see a little bit of volume come in Monday morning we didn't we didn't end over the 27s which is notable so like I wanted to go over to the OC dashboard and check this out so people had asked why is this so critical like a lot of people don't exercise the options
• 17:30 - 18:00 no the people don't but the broker will it doesn't matter about what you want like you get your money right on your option they'll give you your money but in the back office they want the shares and they do other stuff with that trade anyway so you can see all the way through here these were all exercised very few were not you get a couple stragglers each time so f five people didn't have their contracts assigned everybody else got assigned on and lost their shares and will see money in their account uh this morning all right but these 27s because they battled it none
• 18:00 - 18:30 of them got us or basically none of them got assigned on right throughout the day as we were blipping up over 27 people could have been exercising but that's also very rare it's it's rare to for people to do that uh because there isn't like extrinsic value the theta value on the contract and like the big players most of this especially near the money options is going to be big big players and they typically run options to expiry even though with GameStop I don't think that's the right move because it's it's has so much volatility and moves around so much but you can see all these puts
• 18:30 - 19:00 were exercised very few were not uh and then yeah since it ended so close you actually end up with that happening so um what was I going to do with that so looking back at this Could we see some of that delivery happen i think we already did in the after hours and will we see some more of it at open i think so so going into Monday I'm expecting a little bit of volume you know what we did not We did not get We're actually
• 19:00 - 19:30 seeing lower volume now so I was hoping to see because I think we're in this FINRA window but we're just seeing like steady volume not any kind of like ridiculous volume will it happen Monday or will it happen Tuesday i'm kind of excited about Tuesday because if you go back 33 days count these here I think that's when we had big XRT fails so let me go back 33 days that would be March 5th so
• 19:30 - 20:00 let's see if right here yeah that's that's right where you start to see all this failing going on on XRT so could we see settlement of options and XRT fails causing activity Monday and Tuesday and then maybe even off of VT so that's Vanguard's World Fund off of like a day later so let's go look at that fund that's right here when did they blow this up oh you
• 20:00 - 20:30 know yeah it's VT right here so they blew it up here that's a pretty deep um Vanguard looting like they they have been avoiding Vanguard funds so if we go out 33 days from there we'll get to the 23rd is that Monday no let's look here so 23rd yeah that'll be Wednesday so I'm looking at do we see options XRT and then BT settlement this coming week
• 20:30 - 21:00 i was hoping we'd see like a big big run up i've got the big brick graphic here i mean we're up and we're up you know oh what are we at here 27 let's go with the after hours 27 27 off of the bottom down here of 20 like given the whole market's not looking good at all we're up 31% i mean that that's a Babe Ruth graphic right but we haven't had like where's the big volume and what's baffling me is we had we did have 11 days of big volume which
• 21:00 - 21:30 is literally 11 perfect which is uh pattern C rare high volume high volatility events often with rapid price improvement lasting 11 trading days we had exactly that but price went down like this is highly unusual price went well price went all over the place price went from 26 up to 30 down to 20 back to 26 so we actually are at the same price what's our average price here average price is like 234
• 21:30 - 22:00 okay i'm just curious like h should this graphic had actually been back here i don't know was like our FINRA deferral actually not here but was the FINRA deferral back here and then this was the pink thing and they tried to control it i don't know that's just a just a wondering on my part what I did want to say especially I forgot to say it earlier i wanted to mention uh with this
• 22:00 - 22:30 especially with like this legacy swap issue you guys see I'm just learning as I go and when you introduce a new thing here like DoddFrank rules which I know nothing about uh always fact check me really really key i make mistakes all the time i'm just learning i know nothing like this is a I'm just like wandering through this story trying desperately to learn as fast as I can and there's so much to learn it's ridiculous so going
• 22:30 - 23:00 back full circle to the cat errors because we've got this coming up this week which doesn't seem that exciting but XRT is completely blown up and this is 33 days out from when they nuked it right so 224 is when they first took it down to 2.7 million shares and I I am almost certain that like every time they've done that historically there's been like a recompense for that so we've got it like here with this signal so when they
• 23:00 - 23:30 deeply loot XRT they usually have some kind of really bad blow up on the stock after that and like it's it's running but it hasn't gone like big green candle of amazing like it did let me Oops let me uh let me go back in time here so the other times they've done this are rare let me find them here they are so back in 2022 they
• 23:30 - 24:00 did this exact thing they looted XRT super duper bad back here and then 33 or 35 days out let's see how long it was exactly from here to there is uh 43 calendar days or 30 you know you could go out to here 33 trading days so we're past due and then it happened like again right here
• 24:00 - 24:30 this one didn't really produce anything of note but this third one definitely did so they did it three times back here and then you had this major spike happened in May so three times and then two big spikes and then in the past every other time they they've done it something similar happens so I'm looking for something like that because now they've done it twice on XRT just just recently so we got it here and here what would be 33
• 24:30 - 25:00 days out from here we already passed that yeah that starts us off on our run but what would be 33 days out from this one right in here where I've got this thing here so it' be out in May again just like 3 years ago okay so that's still a maybe but the cat errors are a special maybe so if we go to those cat errors they started here let's not start with the 600 million one let's start with where it went crazy with the 15
• 25:00 - 25:30 billion one so that was on where I thought we would have a tailwind but instead of having an XRT event they just blew up XRT down to 2.3 million shares like they were like well we're not going to fill these bad boys up we're just going to nuke them so let's go out 35 calendar days from here because we got to do calendar so if you go from 47 where these errors begin and we go out calendar days oops
• 25:30 - 26:00 um it's going to be here we go out calendar days that's going to be right in the middle of our institutional filing window that's actually cool because I'm actually thinking we could see a lot of institutions file and if we see like a two to 4% growth in institutional ownership again that could cause this like green thing here where we're we're launching so that's going to be out here on around May 12th so let's look put that on here may 12th we could see cat
• 26:00 - 26:30 35 and we already are coming up on cat 70 from that previous giant bunch of batches and then if we go out 70 days from right there that's going to be all the way out to earnings so June 16th so that that gives a really nice window because June
• 26:30 - 27:00 16th is just beyond where I've got our green terminating with the second bay brute graphic so basically what I'm looking at is if we get a nice big PMO cross situation we're running up now like we did in November and then maybe we see a secondary run up like we saw in December so we're in the first Babe Ruth graphic which is our first run up on PMO we top out a little bit and then run up again and that's where we get our second
• 27:00 - 27:30 Babe Ruth into June and all these cat errors are presenting 77 billion marketwide right in here so we've got some coming up here to take us up into our first PMO blip up maybe and then we've got a whole bunch more now for this so it's looking good i mean I think it's always settlement i think they do this probably on a lot of stocks but even more so on GameStop probably even do it on non-stock things like treasuries and stuff but they force down
• 27:30 - 28:00 you know build in a big giant accumulation phase like this and then now we're moving out of there and we're going to find a plateau at some point i don't know if we've done it already and then you zoom out of there why are you zooming out settlement so then we go up into this formation are we in here yet but we'll notice it because you get a big run and I don't think we've seen it yet like not like back here rsi
• 28:00 - 28:30 should go deeply into the overbought territory and I don't think like where's November here's November something like this we haven't seen that yet so that's what I'm looking at we're just starting our journey so I'm very hopeful we've got a even with trading a bit sideways what was it two days still looking really good we got a 5x cross so that kind of covers all that stuff so we basically get to
• 28:30 - 29:00 add a bunch more stuff into this middle column here which is what I look forward to for settlement i've simplified it way down instead of putting it like over here or over here i'm just looking at okay in the week to come we've got all this from 33 days ago options from yesterday XRT when they uh had a bunch of fails on an OPEX we've got VT that they blew up long ago five or six weeks coming up on some JH IWM cat errors from that first big batch back here where we
• 29:00 - 29:30 had 5 billion and we were excited about that now we've got 77 billion uh cat errors that we're excited about so that'll come up here in May right around when they should fix XRT finally i'm thinking this could be gigantic let's put this here because and this was the one that really kicked it off a year ago this May cycle on XRT it was May 3rd though um and I think Rory and Kitty bought a ton of calls right into it so
• 29:30 - 30:00 this could be cool giant giant cat errors deeply looted XRT and we can see just fails on it going absolutely nuts so that's everything I'm looking at in terms of data you guys what I wanted to finish the video with here is well let's just glance really quickly through the data this is going to be really fast but I'm looking like that looks really good at end of day in the after hours so this is people desperate to get shares so they can uh fulfill their assignment
• 30:00 - 30:30 this morning i think uh this looked a lot like a VWAP order coming in probably settlement of IWM we were looking at it the day before but didn't get it they probably did T+ one because that just looks like it's riding the top of the uh VWAP all day long and then it probably ran right from here to here and then stopped and then what do we see here volume's getting low again which is strange we're looking very much like five months ago came up really strongly
• 30:30 - 31:00 following the green line then settling down will we blip up with options and XRT settlement maybe some VT takes us up later in the week and we basically track ultra similarly to right there come up to right here i've got on the chart i think if we were to hit above 30 it'd be a very good opportunity for the company to raise more money but they could wait you know it's opportunistic for them to do this into settlement because as they write in the perspectus the stock is going all over the place with no regard
• 31:00 - 31:30 for what the company's doing or filing about so when there's big volume and usually it's four days of volume in a row it seems like like right here you see volume day one two three four and then bond offering right where was the bond offering no the bond offering was here so no we we had two days of volume and then a bond offering okay um so maybe they don't need four or five days of
• 31:30 - 32:00 volume to offer these bonds so I don't know if we see big volume come in or maybe it'll be out here into this event so if we see an XRT event and this thing goes crazy up to 30 or 40 or 50 or something like June of last year and they offer bonds into it I think that's good i know some people will disagree um but I think if we can keep raising this cash flow that's that's way better long term uh way way better so we'll see what
• 32:00 - 32:30 we do i've still got this sitting here so do we run back up to the line after um heading into 27 to end the week and then now we're free to to break through of it let's look let's look at the options chain for next week to see if if it seems like we can move past 27 it is important to look at this trade this contingent trade this straddle I keep talking about the calls paid out and the puts did not and let's actually see what they got for the
• 32:30 - 33:00 calls so I think they had paid around $2 each for the calls and the puts and what were they at 22 so these they had bought these oh they're gone no I can't see what they what they got for them i think it was around $4 so I think they broke even on this trade did they roll it though so we'll look over here at next week how do the 27s look all right really stacked that's a lot of That's a lot of
• 33:00 - 33:30 options at the 27 it really depends on the ratio of buyers to sellers because it doesn't have to be one for one the market maker will step in and supply the other side if there's too many buyers they'll sell if there's too many sellers they'll buy so I don't know what the ratio is but look at the wall here from the 28 28.5s 29's so can we move up to 28 this week that'd be good but that's a lot of wall and then 30 is huge of course and by the end of the week this will get even bigger what I wanted to look at was
• 33:30 - 34:00 did they move that trade out to the May standard they did not so that straddle trader is gone they chose not to roll this time okay so they won consistently making a lot of like millions of dollars each time kept rolling it they should have played it into that top they messed up um and then now they're out so let's look at this one i want to look at the puts puts are basically gone and we've got like
• 34:00 - 34:30 36.5,000 of these calls so this is a hedge people asked who would buy the 125s why would they do that they're buying them because they're hedging something so now we're up to what did I just say 36,000 125 so actually it's gone down a lot so it went from 65,000 of these 100 Oh these are these are the Junes let me Sorry let me go back to the
• 34:30 - 35:00 Junes june 20th okay these are up okay so they keep hedging or people are yoloing i mean people may think that these are going to hit and they could i mean that's way up there uh and they it also could just be people playing playing the trade because they change in value constantly so it doesn't have to be people thinking that's really important to talk about if you're gonna if you're gonna buy options you guys here's my one piece of advice with
• 35:00 - 35:30 GameStop options uh calls or puts writing them to Xfree is introducing a whole different level of risk like if you're buying these 125 C's and you think that it's going to hit 125 that's way different than just buying them at some particular price like say I don't know a dollar and hoping to sell them at $150 right you you can just make a lot of money on contracts without getting anywhere near expiry or strike like because the contracts change value
• 35:30 - 36:00 constantly and I think a lot of this activity has nothing to do with expectations of the X-ray or the strike happening but just playing IV and moves on the underlying and trading the the thing favorably so that would be if that's advice at all it's just like maybe change your perspective on options for me it's not at all about expert your strike if I'm buying i just want to capture a green trade so um let's see
• 36:00 - 36:30 we've got 86,000 of the 125 C's and then now what we've got 36,000 of the Januaries so the hedge is building and what's good about this hedge is I think it introduces interesting IV onto the stock and then all the puts are gone right there's only like 500 of these puts so we'll just put 500 of these 125 PS so at the bottom down here with all the CAT errors and Ryan Cohen's buys and everything someone else took that
• 36:30 - 37:00 opportunity to either exercise or sell those puts they made a lot of money probably doing it it was a really the best time to to get rid of those puts uh because now they would have lost a lot of value and then there's more and more of these calls entering which makes sense stocks moving up iv is really strong uh we're moving up into what looks like a really exciting time so these contracts could actually go up in value even if they never hit uh we could go look at their price actually let's look at for example the Junes and see how their price is
• 37:00 - 37:30 performing so let's look at the 125C's see if they're going up or down um like they had been way up here this is through see how November through January built up this giant plateau in great IV and they went up a lot now they're way way down but they could move up again if IV really cranks so this is June and then if we look at the January's let's see how they're doing
• 37:30 - 38:00 so go back here so these January 125s here they are how much are these guys worth $135 and yeah they had gone way up in value way down and then now they're starting to improve so the Junes struggling because I mean it's only two months away these Januaries have a lot of life left in them still so they're going they're going up uh so maybe people are buying them thinking they'll
• 38:00 - 38:30 go up even more they could especially if stock runs they're going to gain a lot of value that's not financial advice though buying options is extremely risky if there's anything I could recommend don't buy any options you guys calls or puts unless you really understand what you're doing because they zero out and they go and they change in value so quickly and related to volatility not price of the underlying that it's it's a hard game to play and I don't like seeing people lose money so uh yeah so let's keep clicking through here
• 38:30 - 39:00 so we are tracking a lot like November this is now gone so I had said this is reason that the stock had come down we came we did come right down into April opex a bit what is also worth noticing is if you look where do I have it at the option chain now going out on our summary can see more than a quarter these are still on here though so that's not really but a lot of calls in the money which is good way over max pain on all these things and max pain's shifting
• 39:00 - 39:30 up to the 25s i think our floor should be pretty solidly at the 25s now really depends how traders value the bonds if it's just a wash on assets and liability side then our floor is still at 21 but if not maybe 25 is our floor and that's maybe showing up now I'm going to come back to this kitty's charts look really good even with it trading sideways into end of week I would say like they had to work to do that because you can see it
• 39:30 - 40:00 came down on oversold on the 15minute iv is looking good 76 probably blip up next week if there's settlement next week maybe we blip up again to 90 on IV that'd be cool lots of shares available to borrow especially like this could go up as that uh monthly opex falls off and if they were hedging at all by borrowing that could be a thing and then just broader market spy had a bad cross here on the 4 hour that's going to be bad for next week on the SPY maybe
• 40:00 - 40:30 XRT kind of not looking the greatest and then Bitcoin kind of also not looking the greatest trading really sideways here at 85 and then bonds looking really bad looking really bad so we'll see on the bonds maybe this moves up it's in a It's in a bad cross right now or it was and then now it had a favorable cross but is really getting punished so we'll see how bonds do as I said in yesterday's video it's the story
• 40:30 - 41:00 of the year people are catching on it's becoming a big story this bond market this treasury market gigantic uh interest rates are very high you're seeing now the administration President Trump battle with Jerome Pal this is a real battle like this is a real thing like it's not just personalities it's the Fed's mandate is inflation and labor market the president's mandate is a lot different and they're sparring over what they're trying to do here and the Treasury market is at the heart of the
• 41:00 - 41:30 whole thing so they need demand for treasuries to pick up desperately uh both parties and maybe they're just not in alignment on how do we how do we get that done how do we actually get rates down or yields down uh and get people to buy these treasuries and stop shorting them because right now hedge fund activity on treasuries is higher than I think it's ever been and it's being completely shorted i think you you can kind of see it a lot on the PMO chart this kind of behavior on PMO is often
• 41:30 - 42:00 associated to in my opinion with shorting where it's like oscillating really hard and not wanting to ever recover i don't know and not really cycle it's just getting pushed harder and harder down so why are people shorting treasuries so strongly it's like a bet against the United States government is what it is that's a risky bet so we'll see how that works out this is a very important story like undercurrent right now the treasury markets affects GameStop because GameStop's a bond
• 42:00 - 42:30 issuer now so here's GameStop spawns ch tra trading at a premium which is really good we had a little bit of a down cross here on the 4 hour but it could certainly recross next week i think it might so blue's coming up that could cross up bands have expanded which is good so here's GameStop's PMO here it is on the monthly looking great we had our positive cross bands are slightly expanding so if we see that run up some settling and then another run up into
• 42:30 - 43:00 May and June it would look just like five months ago maybe even could be more explosive which would be good the weekly is looking really good we're back over the median which is really good yeah this is the weekly this has come up which is really good so is the weekly PMO turning and if it does and we get a third mountain here or third peak this is really really good like doesn't get much better than this except for if the monthly turns if the monthly turns now
• 43:00 - 43:30 we're really really talking and I got the squeeze indicator down here at the bottom like this could literally be massive cheers emoji but we'll just watch it it's very slow forming uh and then let's see here i don't know if these are going to be at all important so that's um short percent this is off exchange they routed a lot off exchange as you would expect they're trying to control the price into OPEX and failing to do
• 43:30 - 44:00 so and then yeah we looked at that we won't get an update on XRT until Monday morning but they'll pro if they loot it down again like go for a triple like they did in 2022 that could be good um so final thing I want to look at is this new chart I'm building which is this kitty chart so we'll wrap it up here and I think I'll just touch on this every day and tell the story a little bit more every day i don't want to do it all at once because it's so much but basically my speculation is what did Kitty do so
• 44:00 - 44:30 in literally a year ago today one year retrospective what did Rory and Kitty do a year ago and here's what I think he did i'm I'm just taking it slow because it's a lot to process this guy he's a clever kitty cat so um up here in white is stuff that actually happened like confir confirmed non-speculative stuff that really happened down here in orange is stuff I'm speculating on so people can challenge me on this that's totally
• 44:30 - 45:00 cool they can say "No that doesn't make any sense." So here's my first round of speculation i think his primary position we see in his YOLO updates for all of the last five years have to be in some kind of tax advantaged account otherwise the uh taxes would just blow him up so it's probably an IRA traditional or Roth doesn't really matter um I don't think he's ever sold his original 800,000 shares it was 200,000 four years ago April 16th of 2021 then it split and
• 45:00 - 45:30 became 800,000 shares he probably sold calls on them for several years and built up a position swing trading the stock options and maybe other stocks doing roaring kitty things in that account that we'll never see and probably never know about to raise and I'm thinking it's probably actually in excess of $50 million so how did he take the 3.5 million in cash four years ago actually it would have been three years ago from here and turn $3.5 million into $50 million like it seems little bit absurd to even say yeah he just did
• 45:30 - 46:00 kitty things and did that but I think that's what we have to think he did so lot of opportunity here a lot of cycling occurring on GameStop and we know that he trades other stocks and he's really good with options so and he had a huge position the calls alone selling calls over those three years could have produced a lot of money so that's my first round of thoughts second round of thoughts is on the bottom here when it came down to 995 i think that was a really good signal and then in
• 46:00 - 46:30 particular if you're watching the monthly PMO you can actually see on this day when it blips up right here so when it comes off the bottom and moves up right there that that's when the call buying I think started the 10ens so someone was buying the 10 C's and then the 11 C's and the 12C's and built a little gamma ramp going into Friday April 26th and then the cross happens you get the signal the green signal and this is updated right here these charts got updated for the first time in 3
• 46:30 - 47:00 years so I think that's pretty reasonable to assume he he could have built a little gamma ramp here bought a bunch of calls uh made a bunch of money this week so with a move up of 20% on GameStop from $10 up to $12 and the options being as cheap and the market being as dry as it was could have made some money here lot of money right if he had 50 million here maybe he's now up to I don't know 70 million 80 million uh then stock kind of blips back down but
• 47:00 - 47:30 he's seeing hey we're still crossed here i think you see more call buying here tens 11s then the 15s and 20s and then all the way up to the 30s and then I see I think you see an ETF XRT event right here on the third and it occurred on a Friday and I've said that a lot very rare so what happens is boom all these go in the money uh take profit now you could have gone from like 70 or 80 million this is incredible to think about into the hundreds of millions
• 47:30 - 48:00 what's important is he needs $193 million to make the next leg of the journey so is it possible that he did a 4x right here what I'm curious about is we saw these calls getting bought i don't know if there was enough for like for that to have happened and I in particular don't know how many were bought for the 10th all right the next expiry so he could have also been at like 120
• 48:00 - 48:30 million here and then this next leg over the next week maybe now it's up to 193 million but it needs to be $193 million right here um because if he had 42,20 C's that he exercised on the 10th and I don't know if the chain had that kind of activity going on on it i don't uh then that would have forced the delivery of those 4.2 million shares and that actually works with his cost basis so the cost basis works out if he
• 48:30 - 49:00 exercised 20s and the cost of the contract was whatever it was I don't know and then there's a fee to exercise uh then that forcing of that delivery someone said there's no way that you can explain 200 million volume on a 4 million delivery and I agree but the issue would be if on that final day he had contracts for 410 exercised them that afternoon then they have to be delivered on Monday and Tuesday the party which could have been
• 49:00 - 49:30 Wolverine you know options clearing folks if they did not have the shares which we know they didn't from their filings because they're playing the options market but had no exposure to GameStop they were naked which is kind of what this meme is saying right here if they go in and punch in a VWAP order Monday morning in the pre-market then it would be the most aggressive form of VWAP you can do because it would have no regard for price for liquidity pricing or fees or
• 49:30 - 50:00 anything like that it's just saying "Give me 4.2 2 million shares as quickly as you possibly can because I need them literally by Tuesday morning to deliver to this guy so this is all speculative but would explain the gamma ramping that happened this activity here and this would have just been the spark because by coming out and tweeting uh this was a tweet right yeah on Sunday night announcing his return even though
• 50:00 - 50:30 he had kind of already like subtly hinted he was coming back here and here uh there was FOMO and and then he starts memeing like crazy Monday morning notably During market hours he memes 12 times so every 30 minutes he's memeing one two three so this is the cadence here on the first batch of memes i want to point out something I was thinking about during this whole sequence here is it's possible that he had purchased call
• 50:30 - 51:00 options for the following Friday the 17th and he had been holding them into Monday here's the problem with that though if he had been holding options right here in his account and me'd Sunday night and then me'd all Monday morning or Monday during the trading day sold those Monday or maybe Tuesday and he was memeing Tuesday too that could be very much considered market manipulation and he could have gotten in big trouble what's very
• 51:00 - 51:30 elegant about this situation is he's basically not done anything right he saw an opportunity he bought calls he took profit on those calls and updated his charts nothing to see here right bought calls again took profit into an ETF settlement cycle flipped his $50 million into a cool 100 plus bought more calls exercised his account now only holds as of Saturday morning 5 million shares of
• 51:30 - 52:00 GameStop and hundred and something million he's got no options exposure he's got no open trades he's not manipulating anybody but he knows that those shares have not been delivered they're in his account but the market maker on the options side has to go get those shares so I think this presents a really elegant story that keeps him out of trouble and I don't think he pump and dumps people i think that's really important i think consistently what I want to emphasize here is he's
• 52:00 - 52:30 deliberately avoiding pump and dumping right because he could get in huge trouble for that and he didn't I don't think so that's why I think this situation makes the most sense it's the most ethical certainly because he literally did all this trading completely on his own and punched the button himself on Friday um Friday the 10th and thank you guys for noticing I put the wrong dates on these I fixed these uh and then so in his account literally would be hundred something million dollars he's ready he's got a
• 52:30 - 53:00 war chest what's he going to do with the war chest he's going to buy the offering and I think he's going to telegraph to GameStop hey do an ATM and I'll buy it and he buys the 20 C's through here with all that cash all right but I'm not to that part of the story yet so he's ready he's instigated the inciting event with the exercising of a monster bunch of contracts right into a depleted market that's completely dry and he
• 53:00 - 53:30 knows from the filing that the market maker on the option side has no shares to give him so when they go out and try to get those shares boom FOMO delivery VWAP gamma launching everything's going crazy and he's not doing anything he's not trading he has no open trades he's clean he's like "What are you guys blaming me for i didn't do anything i just did what anyone would do bought stocks bought I mean bought calls saw an opportunity exercised bought the the stock at 20 way over what the value was
• 53:30 - 54:00 like what are you blaming me for right um so I think that's why I like this story it's clean and if we look at the memes in particular those 12 memes from that day let's look at what they tell the story to me of so this is now getting speculative but I've got them all up here his first one is fine I'll do it myself right then he's got the kitty chart here we've got the January blip up maybe back here and now we've got a new blip up right which is certainly right here so it looks just like the actual chart and we've got a
• 54:00 - 54:30 naked Wolverine right so kind of tells a bit of a story and he's telling everyone like "Oh you guys are still here." And then "Oh it's over." No it's done when I say we're done right what's the overture doing this giant order and you we know that through the options market T+1 delivery not this T plus 35 shenanigans if you just go in and punch in an actual order right if you just buy stock all these ways they can hide that order etfs fails to deliver you do exercising completely
• 54:30 - 55:00 different ballgame so dragon wakes up going berserker i don't know what the reversal is about though this is ready player one uh then it's you know um he's got these notches at 10 the first contracts bought were at 10 so that's from Gangs of New York on my challenge when I move you move um yeah so I don't know this all kind of just tells me like hey we're going to do this thing we're coming back could have
• 55:00 - 55:30 rode off into the sunset didn't do it when I say run we're going to run he He did it right it runs after he says it dog days are over certainly were you know I've told this whole story in reverse but it certainly makes sense this way too uh we got the Avengers everyone goes crazy this is FOMO right uh it's a reckoning this certainly looks like a reckoning to me and then push the little red button right what's the little red button um I can't
• 55:30 - 56:00 do it in my account but on Erade I think you can press the button and exercise your options so I think that's a thing let me know if not so if he did that Friday on May 10th and he booped 42,000 call contracts at 20 that would be pressing a button and then it's going to be a busy couple of weeks has there been a busier couple of weeks on GameStop than this period here from the 13th so exciting
• 56:00 - 56:30 through through a month later right one month it's going to take us like a week to talk through it all definitely a busy couple of weeks and then what's this last part going out with a bang for every action there's a reaction right when you exercise there's delivery i don't know uh the kitty had taken the demise of his stock personally certainly had and he came back unbelievable we don't even get to see this position
• 56:30 - 57:00 notably really importantly we don't even know what's going on here i wanted to talk about this at this point everyone's in the dark so let's like actually put ourselves into this space of a year ago too like I was zoned out i think the last time I'd made a video was here at earnings i was like "This is great we're yearly profitable." I went back to sleep i was not paying attention then all of a sudden I'm like "Whoa stocks up 100% what is happening?" Roking Kitty's memeing every 30 minutes during market hours and came back on a Sunday and then
• 57:00 - 57:30 wow stocks up 160% what is going on here we don't even see his position until here and at this point we see okay this madman's back with 5 million shares how 120,000 call options that are going to expire here how and these are $69 million worth of calls what and then we had seen the block buying of the calls and wondered like is this an institution it was Roaring Kitty LLC doing that
• 57:30 - 58:00 thing and then he's got some amount of cash too how much he had a lot of cash too what was it $39 million value tab um $30 million how right how How does this guy come back with a with a $210 million position right last time we'd seen him he had a $32 million position so that's good like perspective is we literally had no idea what he had
• 58:00 - 58:30 been up to but if like you put yourself in Rory Kitty's shoes he's like "All right watching the PMO see this deep deep low we return to $10 he's been stacking cash for this opportunity." Boom options starts to ramp boom options again into settlement 33 days later off of here right uh more options exercise like all of a sudden he's doing Ryan Cohen things right ryan Cohen's first buy five million shares he's coming out
• 58:30 - 59:00 just like Ryan Cohen from four and a half years ago but he didn't beep boop in a market order he exercised so the explosiveness of it gigantic and then he's just chilling just memeing having a good time like hey you guys everyone was just waiting i'm coming back i'm doing it myself right he's got no open trades so key so clean like how can you even get in trouble you just said "I just dropped," if anyone like asks you questions like "What do you want me to
• 59:00 - 59:30 do i just made a ton of money and bought five million shares of my favorite stock and now I got no open trades i'm not dumping anybody i'm not selling anything i love this company right?" And then we'll see what happens in the days to come but in the days to come he does something even more amazing and the thing is he knew what he was going to do every step of the way genius anyway so tell me what you guys think about this first leg i don't know seems pretty fair to me and the fact that like it takes a year for me to like look back and be like man seems like that makes sense
• 59:30 - 60:00 that what he did i could be totally wrong um but the PMO chart works out perfectly um but the reason to do this is uh just to try to learn right so what were the things that he was recognizing right pmo chart we're here now crossing sl you know uh happened again back here in uh late October November really good really really good he med a little bit
• 60:00 - 60:30 back here but we don't know what he was up to and then here we go again is this an opportunity i don't know looks really good is a bunch of exciting stuff going to happen yeah uh but you know what else can we learn um options amazing right but IV and price were super low back here and if he did this he took advantage of weeklies highly risky right uh but maybe was an
• 60:30 - 61:00 opportunity to flip 50 into about 193 million maybe uh diddy exercise great way to pick up shares if you get the contracts cheap beforehand uh and then into a move you then exercise um could be a good way to pick up shares at a guaranteed price because yeah um could have could have bought those 20s back here for a really good premium anyway so let me know what
• 61:00 - 61:30 you guys think about the whole thing i just like learning like pondering how did this guy clearly the greatest trader of all time flip $53,000 into as of our last thing in a single account this is just one account into over $200 million position 9 million shares of GameStop incredible what's he been up to over the last nine months no idea and is he going to come back and do more things we'll see right now the company seems to be taking the lead and
• 61:30 - 62:00 he doesn't seem to have to do too much uh but we'll see when he decides to come back and I'm sure he's up to something right uh just quietly building i think that's what he likes to do quietly build and then when the moment's right strike so is that moment now i don't think conditions are the same at all right now there's way too much IV price is moving around way too much this was like a period of very low IV historically low like 52 IV uh historically low price and
• 62:00 - 62:30 that's when he struck so people really really want him to come back it's like things are fine like this is the ultimate trump card you like play this guy wild card when it's needed is it needed right now stock stock's just doing amazing right now really um so anyway that's this one you guys let me know what you think i hope you're having an awesome day uh have a great good Friday and I'll see you guys tomorrow