I Can't Believe It

Summary

Highlights

• Bitcoin stands strong while the S&P 500 drops $5 trillion—who would've thought? 🤯
• It's crucial to stick to your investment plan amidst market fear and uncertainty. 🧐
• Altcoins are having a tough time, but if Bitcoin rallies, some may shine! 🚀
• Watch out for the ongoing stablecoin surge as demand for USD continues to grow. 💸
• Could this be the beginning of a more stable Bitcoin narrative? Only time will tell. ⌛

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin shows surprising resilience during S&P 500's $5 trillion sell-off 💪
• Uncertain times highlight the value of a solid investment plan 📈
• Despite fear and pessimism, Bitcoin maintains a fair value range 🔄
• Altcoins struggle, but potential narratives could lead to a resurgence 🌟
• Stablecoins continue to gain traction, showcasing growing demand for US dollars 💵

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 06:30: Bitcoin Resilience Amidst Market Turmoil Despite the current S&P 500 sell-off, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience and strength, even as stocks lost $5 trillion in value, which is nearly double the entire crypto market cap. This behavior indicates a shift in Bitcoin's market dynamics compared to two years ago. However, it's premature to determine the long-term implications of this resilience.
• 06:30 - 13:00: Market Indicators and Their Implications The chapter 'Market Indicators and Their Implications' explores the relationship and historical correlation between Bitcoin and traditional market indices such as the S&P 500. The discussion highlights a recent decoupling phenomenon where Bitcoin's price movements appear to detach from those of traditional markets, signaling a strong market position. The chapter examines whether Bitcoin will continue to forge its path independently from significant market indices and emphasizes the surprising similarities in the trading patterns of digital currency and large U.S. corporations.
• 13:00 - 19:30: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook The chapter discusses the importance of having a financial plan and adhering to it, rather than relying on news headlines or daily sentiment when making economic decisions. The author emphasizes the stability a plan provides during tumultuous times and refers to their own plan mentioned in a weekly report.
• 19:30 - 24:00: Altcoin Struggles in a Volatile Market This chapter focuses on the challenges faced by altcoins amidst a fluctuating market environment. The main points include planned changes to a portfolio, contingent on market signals and Bitcoin's performance relative to the 50-week moving average, a key indicator of market trends. Presently, Bitcoin remains above this average, indicating a continuation of the bull market. The analysis suggests caution until Bitcoin surpasses $90K, implying that current strategies may need revision if the market dynamics change.
• 24:00 - 31:00: Future Predictions and Market Trends The chapter discusses the importance of not overreacting to market changes, particularly with Bitcoin's current price fluctuations. It highlights the necessity of maintaining a balanced approach to portfolio management and the common tendency for investors to react emotionally to market sentiment. The chapter advises against making drastic portfolio changes despite the current market fear and emphasizes the need to wait until key resistance levels are reclaimed before expecting major trends. This cautious approach underlines the unpredictability of market trends and the importance of strategic patience.

I Can't Believe It Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 hello and welcome back to my 10 favorite people hope you're doing well i'm incredibly excited for today's video because we've seen amazing Bitcoin strength during this S&P 500 sell-off and this is not how Bitcoin would have traded during an event like this even 2 years ago we've seen Bitcoin hold pretty firm as stocks lost $5 trillion in value during this Trump tariff sell-off and $5 trillion is almost double the entire crypto market cap now I do think it's too early to conclude that Bitcoin has
• 00:30 - 01:00 officially decoupled here and it's going to do whatever it wants going forward no matter what we see from traditional markets but it is a nice sign of strength regardless now we just have to see if it's going to follow through but it is pretty mind-blowing looking at this correlation and how close they've traded historically compared to what we saw last week looking at this chart you'd have no idea which one is magic internet money and which one is the 500 largest corporations in the United States now could Bitcoin just follow
• 01:00 - 01:30 through next week and do the exact same thing it could but as of right now I'm liking what I'm seeing and this is why having a plan and sticking to it is so important if you're just relying on news headlines or sentiment and how you're feeling dayto-day it's going to be very hard to make good decisions during these time periods so having a plan and sticking to it is incredibly valuable that's why I wrote about my plan in Monday's free weekly report which I always put in the video description and a new weekly report will be coming out
• 01:30 - 02:00 on Monday where I'm going to be making some portfolio changes but as of right now there's no reason to make any changes to the plan bitcoin is still holding above our 50week moving average which historically has been the line in the sand during bull markets as long as you're above it Bitcoin is in the clear once it gets lost you are very likely in a bare market and it's time to perhaps change your strategy depending on your situation and as long as Bitcoin is below 90K I think it's too early to be
• 02:00 - 02:30 getting too excited that we're going to skyrocket tomorrow because we still have to reclaim that crucial resistance level so right now my plan just calls for some small portfolio rebalancing but no reason to make any huge changes quite yet and I know it can be incredibly tempting to make huge changes to your portfolio when sentiment is this fearful everybody was clamoring and fighting over Bitcoin above a 100,000 but now that it's in the low 80,000s everybody's fighting for the exit door and that's
• 02:30 - 03:00 really not surprising when we take a look at what we're seeing from the economic policy uncertainty index now hitting the highest level we have seen in the past 50 years and this much uncertainty in traditional markets is definitely carrying over to Bitcoin and you can see the amount of fear being spread by these headlines bitcoin falls towards ADK and Prince death cross which sounds terrifying but it's really just two moving averages crossing over each other we also have this one here saying Trump liberation day tariffs create
• 03:00 - 03:30 chaos in markets recession concerns this one with sunglasses and an explosion reminds us that this is the worst quarter since the FTX collapse and you're seeing these lower and lower price targets bitcoin price risks dropped to 71K as Trump tariffs hurt US business outlook actually 71K is a bit high let's change it bitcoin crash risk to 70K in 10 days is increasing but when you zoom out yes the narratives are concerning yes sentiment is fearful yes
• 03:30 - 04:00 everyone is scared right now but Bitcoin has been going sideways for almost a month and a half and we really have been in the same trading range but for me I like to have a simplistic more long-term zoomed out view if we lose this 50week moving average here we can talk about bare markets we can talk about downside we can talk about concerns for this asset class as a whole but as long as we're trading above it I don't see the need to jump to that conclusion if Bitcoin reclaims 90K we can talk about a
• 04:00 - 04:30 early cycle blowoff top into late May or perhaps June where this rally catches everybody offguard and everybody is forced to pile back in because they panic sold during this stock market sell-off and the third and perhaps most painful scenario would just be more sideways chop wrecking investors in both directions especially those that are selling in and out of the market or trying to trade with leverage and maybe we don't get a conclusion until later in April and we'll have to see where
• 04:30 - 05:00 Bitcoin goes from there but this week has been one of those very rare events that you don't see very often bitcoin showing strength while the S&P 500 is falling off a cliff the only other time we've seen something somewhat like it was in October of 2023 when the S&P 500 was finishing its multi-week selloff but Bitcoin started rallying even while the S&P 500 was still selling off and then the S&P 500 reversed i don't think this is going to play out the exact same way
• 05:00 - 05:30 but this is one of those rare occasions that doesn't happen very often so Bitcoin's price action over the next two weeks is going to be incredibly important to monitor to see if we do see it fall the S&P 500 or we do see the early innings of a new narrative developing for Bitcoin and its new relative strength and this strength is especially impressive because we're not seeing huge outflows from the ETFs i would have expected the ETFs to make Bitcoin even more correlated to stocks because investors are holding these ETFs
• 05:30 - 06:00 in the same brokerage where they hold their S&P 500 their bonds their gold so the fact that we haven't seen huge outflows this week is quite impressive in terms of investors having a long time horizon and not panic selling their Bitcoin because stocks are going down and I think this headline sums it up quite well bitcoin bulls defend ADK support as World War III of trade wars crushes US stocks as for my portfolio no changes made since the last video but
• 06:00 - 06:30 I'm probably going to do some rebalancing on Monday and I'll write about that in the free weekly report because that's what my portfolio system calls for if you want to learn more about my portfolio system it's 67% complete so we're going to have early bird pricing for about two more weeks as I make the final modules and I'm very grateful for all of the positive feedback it's great to have a place where I can finally go more in depth into my portfolio system mental frameworks and common mistakes I have made in the past and see so many new investors making but as we look forward
• 06:30 - 07:00 the global liquidity data still looks quite good for Bitcoin we don't know if it's going to be a 75day lag 85day lag 105day lag but if we do see Bitcoin follow this global liquidity move eventually that would align nicely with a new rally into all-time highs in the near future we are still seeing an aggressive downtrend in the US dollar index which is good for global liquidity hopefully this big wick below the 200week moving average isn't a sign of reversal where the dollar index is going
• 07:00 - 07:30 to rally higher from here we really want to see continuation to the downside if we're going to see global liquidity continue higher and perhaps these additional rate cuts that the market is pricing in could be the catalyst for that because of the weakening of labor market and the sell-off we've seen in the stock market we're seeing the market start to price in more of these rate cuts we started this year off with only three rate cuts priced in for 2025 last week that got upgraded to four rate cuts priced in the market is now pricing in
• 07:30 - 08:00 five rate cuts and if this continues for much longer I think the Fed is going to be forced to pivot their policy a lot sooner than many investors are prepared for now they still have stubborn inflation stopping them from doing it immediately their preferred measure of inflation core PCE did increase by.1% in the last reading and it's now coming in at 2.8% we did also see some weakening labor market this week with the unemployment rate print coming in at
• 08:00 - 08:30 4.2%.1% above the previous 4.1 so this could give the Fed some leeway as well but of course the big one is the price action we've seen in the S&P 500 this big of a drop in stocks is very deflationary and very bad for the labor market and the economy so it should force the Fed to pivot and change its policy quite soon especially if this rate of change continues i mean this is an absolute ridiculous weekly candle
• 08:30 - 09:00 down almost 10% in a week we saw nothing like this in 2022 that was more of a slow and steady sell-off this is a lot more similar to what we saw in March 2020 and we know that forced the Fed's hand quite quickly because of how aggressively the S&P 500 was selling off and it makes Bitcoin's price action last week even more impressive and I know many investors are ignoring the bullish developments because prices are down and there's so much uncertainty in traditional markets but we are seeing
• 09:00 - 09:30 more and more states joining the Bitcoin reserve bill trend we just saw West Virginia join the party we saw Alabama and Minnesota lawmakers join US states pushing for Bitcoin reserves as well we now have 26 of the 50 states doing this the US committee passed the Stable Act which is stable coin regulation so now we're going to see if it's able to pass the full House vote and we've been watching this whale accumulation of Bitcoin something we tend to see in bull
• 09:30 - 10:00 markets and usually the bull market doesn't end and the top is not in until we see those large holders start to offload that Bitcoin but we have not seen that quite yet if anything this looks like a reaccumulation just like we saw in Q3 of 2024 and Q1 of 2024 when Bitcoin's price consolidated and we saw a huge increase in Bitcoin holdings by large addresses and you can see that in early 2021 that started plummeting
• 10:00 - 10:30 aggressively as they sold off their Bitcoin and took profits into the distribution top we have not seen anything like that recently so for me I believe Bitcoin is in a fair value range you're not buying an incredible discount or a huge sale like if we were to be trading closer to Bitcoin's 200E moving average but you're not FOMO buying the top when everybody is clamoring to buy Bitcoin above 100,000 because of strategic reserves and Michael Sailor and ETF inflows and because Bitcoin is
• 10:30 - 11:00 in what I believe to be a fair value range I'm not tempted to make any huge purchases or make any huge sales here if anything I'd rather just sit on my hands and see what Bitcoin decides to do we are still holding above the major support level that I expect Bitcoin to hold i still think it's unlikely that we see the low 60,000s i know many people are calling for it i know many people are waiting for it it is definitely possible it's just not my base case because Bitcoin continues to hold
• 11:00 - 11:30 support so we'll see what happens we have our invalidation right below price with the 50we moving average we have our riskon signal right above price which would be a reclaim of 90k otherwise it's probably going to be more pain and chop sideways in the short term which I know frustrates a ton of investors but this is something that Bitcoin does all the time and it just wrecks altcoins and leverage traders every time during those consolidation periods and speaking of
• 11:30 - 12:00 wrecked altcoins Ethereum continues to trade back into its old range from late 2022 2 early 2023 it's not surprising that Ethereum and other altcoins are struggling bitcoin has been holding up well with all of this macro uncertainty but things further out on the risk curve obviously would struggle more we're now going to wait and see if it's going to go back to its mid-range or if it can reverse sometime here in the near future as of right now it looks like it wants to go lower first we are losing macro support on the Ethereum Bitcoin pair
• 12:00 - 12:30 which is not a great sign we really want to see these December 2020 levels reclaimed quite soon as for Salana not much better the only saving grace here is that we're holding the 100week moving average and we have the 200week moving averages right below us but it is looking like it's gearing up to close below its major range low that it's been above since February of 2024 we do have the Salana Bitcoin pair sitting on support here and you would expect a bounce at this level but obviously altcoins will continue to struggle until
• 12:30 - 13:00 Bitcoin reverses it has been a very tough year for altcoins with Salana sitting down 30% over the past year ethereum down over 45% over the past year even the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are now negative year-over-year but look at Bitcoin just holding up 20% above where it was trading a year ago which is quite impressive when you compare it to both safer assets and riskier assets but I do think that we could see a nice altcoin
• 13:00 - 13:30 move if we do get that final blowoff top rally for Bitcoin i know the word alt season triggers a lot of people right now because of how painful it's been to hold altcoins and I don't think every single altcoin will go up it will be the few that have good narratives whether that's stable coins which continue to be in a bull market we saw stable coin supply surge by 30 billion in Q1 and I think the chains that have these stable coins on them will benefit we saw Ethereum cross $3 trillion worth of
• 13:30 - 14:00 stable coin transactions even with Ethereum's price going down 45% and these stable coin supply charts look like they're going to continue going in only one direction as there's more and more demand globally for US dollars and the other main narrative I'm watching is RWA's real world assets i do think these major asset managers like Black Rockck and Fidelity are going to try to tokenize as many assets as they can so I will continue monitoring real world assets and stable coins as the two main
• 14:00 - 14:30 bullish narratives I'm watching out for right now but no matter what the narrative is altcoin price action is going to depend very heavily on what Bitcoin does and as long as Bitcoin is chopping in a range altcoins tend to struggle you really need a reclaim from Bitcoin and an uptrend in Bitcoin if altcoins are going to show any signs of life but as we look forward the federal government is still running huge deficits and any of the damages being done to the stock market and economy today are only going to worsen this
• 14:30 - 15:00 trend once the Fed is forced to step in and as long as we see these deficits worsening I expect to see more exponential debt growth and more exponential money supply growth and as the money supply continues to be debased I expect risk assets that we price in the money supply to go up in value as well and this is something we've seen from the S&P 500 many times you have these very quick and aggressive riskoff events like what we're seeing right now but it forces the Fed to step in even
• 15:00 - 15:30 more aggressively each time and we end up getting these steeper and steeper slopes in the debt increase and I think we're probably going to get one huge finale with an even steeper increase in the slope of debt issuance and that could be the final major blowoff top in this multi-deade S&P 500 bull market but we'll continue to monitor the data and see how that plays out for now I remain bullish on fixed supply risk assets like Bitcoin that don't have to worry about
• 15:30 - 16:00 tariffs and that can be held by investors easily globally to protect themselves from currency debasement but as always let me know what you expect is this just temporary strength from Bitcoin or is this the dawn of a new bullish Bitcoin narrative where it can be seen as a bit more stable during these type of events as always thank you so much for the support on the recent videos thank you so much for watching and I'll talk to you