I’m About to Make My BIGGEST Crypto Buy in 3 Years And Here’s Why

Summary

In his latest video, EllioTrades discusses the current state of the crypto market and his plan for a significant investment in Bitcoin. Ellio explores various economic indicators, predictions from crypto experts, and his views on the divergence between crypto and traditional markets. He emphasizes the potential of Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty and the growing institutional adoption. Ellio believes that while mainstream markets may face further downturns, crypto, and specifically Bitcoin, is poised for a significant upside in the long term.

Highlights

• Bitcoin soared from $7000s to $90,000s, prompting discussions on whether it's time to heavily invest. 🚀
• Top predictors, like CZ from Binance, forecast Bitcoin could reach $500K to $1M this cycle. 💰
• Traditional markets are experiencing dark clouds, but Bitcoin shows promise as a hedge against economic instability. 🌦️
• Retail investors are actively buying, potentially leaving institutions on the sidelines, a historic shift. 🏦
• Ellio plans to make significant crypto purchases as he believes Bitcoin's worst is over and a major uptrend is coming. 💡

Key Takeaways

• The traditional 'sell in May and go away' mantra doesn't apply this year due to underlying crypto market dynamics. 🔍
• Bitcoin's recent rise sets the stage for potential major buys, with institutions holding back but retail investors buying in. 📈
• Economic uncertainties persist, but the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, shows resilience and potential as a global currency hedge. 💪
• The potential for a Bitcoin super cycle is emerging, fueled by increasing adoption and strategic corporate investments. 🚀
• There's a shift in how traditional markets and crypto interact, with crypto leading the downturn and possibly the recovery. 🔄

Overview

EllioTrades dives deep into the crypto landscape with a compelling argument for his biggest Bitcoin purchase in years. With Bitcoin's explosive growth to the $90,000s, he questions if now is the right time to invest. Drawing from insights by experts and examining current economic conditions, he presents a case for Bitcoin as a robust hedge against looming uncertainties.

Globally, economic and trade tensions continue to create a volatile market atmosphere. Cryptocurrencies, however, are emerging as a more stable asset class compared to traditional markets. Ellio notes the proactive behaviors of retail investors in buying the dip, a stark contrast to the hesitant institutions waiting on the sidelines. As economies navigate trade wars, supply chain issues, and recession fears, Bitcoin and crypto gain prominence.

Ellio believes in the onset of a Bitcoin super cycle, highlighted by increasing adoption and strategic corporate investments. He suggests that the current market dynamics could lead to Bitcoin breaking traditional market trends. His strategic insights aim to guide viewers through the complexity, urging them to consider crypto as a vital part of their investment strategy going forward.

Chapters

• 00:00 - 03:00: Introduction and Market Overview The chapter begins by acknowledging a common practice in the crypto community to "sell in May and go away," but quickly shifts focus to more substantial developments occurring in the market. It highlights a recent surge in Bitcoin's price from the low $70,000s to nearly $100,000, sparking debates about market entry timing. The narrative includes contrasting perspectives, with leading quantitative analysts suggesting the bull market has not yet started, while predictions like CZ's suggest Bitcoin could reach $1 million in this cycle. Meanwhile, there's an observed trend of retail traders buying dips, while institutions remain cautious. Additionally, the chapter references Jim Kramer's surprising prediction of no recession and mentions the role of private credit in the current financial landscape.
• 03:00 - 06:00: Bitcoin's Past Predictions and Future Outlook The chapter discusses the current economic climate, highlighting several key events: the Port of Los Angeles' warning about impending significant shortages, and the S&P 500 behaving unpredictably. Additionally, investment icon Warren Buffett's advice to diversify currency holdings beyond the US dollar is noted. These elements suggest economic instability, raising the question of whether this is merely market anxiety or part of a broader pattern of market disruptions during the Trump administration.
• 06:00 - 09:00: Crypto Traders vs Institutional Investors The chapter discusses the dynamics between crypto traders and institutional investors in the current market environment. It suggests the possibility of forming a sustainable uptrend. The speaker shares their strategic plan to reinvest in the crypto market, expressing optimism that the worst might be over. However, they caution against re-entering the market hastily, as they foresee potential further downward moves before a stable recovery. The chapter emphasizes thoughtful engagement with the market and encourages viewers to support the content by liking and sharing the video.
• 09:00 - 12:00: Current Economic Conditions and Market Predictions The chapter discusses the current economic conditions and market predictions, with a focus on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. The speaker intends to re-invest cash into the market due to a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and crypto over the coming years. The chapter emphasizes the importance of strategic planning in market re-entry, highlighting a strategy that the speaker elaborates on in detail. The speaker references a prediction by Bitquant, who anticipated a value of 76K for Bitcoin by December. The chapter aims to provide insights into the reasons behind the speaker's market positioning.
• 12:00 - 15:00: Bitcoin's Role in the Future Economy The chapter discusses Bitcoin's position and predictions about its future economic roles. An anecdote is shared about a prediction that Bitcoin would bottom out at 74K after trading around 100K, which nearly came true. The traditional saying 'Sell in May and go away' is humorously adapted to 'Sell in May, regret the play' to highlight the seasonal patterns in crypto trading, particularly noting the unexciting performance in past summers. A bullish outlook is presented, with the anticipation of an upcoming bull market indicated by a specific chart analysis.
• 15:00 - 18:00: The Importance of Using VPN in Crypto Trading This chapter discusses the importance of using a VPN (Virtual Private Network) in the context of crypto trading. It briefly touches upon the concept of a logarithmic regression trend line, describing it as the real indicator of a bull market in cryptocurrency. The narrator notes the challenges in fitting regressions, especially when projecting into the future, as it is often easier to analyze them in hindsight. Mention is made of Bitcoin, which has been accurately predicted in terms of market tops and bottoms, and there is a speculation about Bitcoin's potential rise to 140K at an unspecified time. The chapter emphasizes the unpredictability and speculative nature of crypto markets and suggests that using a VPN can be vital for maintaining privacy and security during crypto transactions.
• 18:00 - 21:00: Price Action Analysis and Trading Strategy The chapter titled 'Price Action Analysis and Trading Strategy' involves a discussion on the potential future pricing of Bitcoin. It references an interview with Binance's founder, CZ, who speculates that the top price for the current Bitcoin bull market could range between $500,000 to $1,000,000. It's emphasized that CZ did not identify this as the top of the typical 4-year cycle but rather as a broader cycle top, indicating a shift from traditional cycle analysis. This insight is considered crucial for conducting effective price action analysis and crafting trading strategies.
• 21:00 - 24:00: Potential Market Movements and Future Predictions The chapter discusses the recent movements in the financial markets, highlighting that the cryptocurrency market was ahead of traditional markets in reacting to economic uncertainties, particularly those associated with Trump's presidency. It points out that while the crypto market showed signs of decline earlier, there are still potential risks in traditional markets like the S&P 500, suggesting ongoing instability.
• 24:00 - 25:00: Conclusion and Call to Action The conclusion emphasizes that while economic factors like trade wars and tariffs might induce downturns, they are unlikely to cause a major recession. The speaker believes the chance of a doomsday-like recession is slim, although not impossible. They anticipate a potential drop to market lows but suggest that cryptocurrency will recover ahead of equities.

I’m About to Make My BIGGEST Crypto Buy in 3 Years And Here’s Why Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 Everyone in crypto is used to selling in May and going away. This video isn't about that meme. You see, there is a ton happening under the hood. With Bitcoin recently ripping unapologetically from the low7s all the way up to the high 90,000s, now the question is, is it time to jump back in with two feet? Or is the other shoe about to drop? with leading quants that predicted this drop saying the bull market hasn't even begun yet. CZ predicting up to $1 million this cycle. Retail traders buying the dip while institutions hide. Jim Kramer predicting no recession. Private credit
• 00:30 - 01:00 being sold at 50 cents on the dollar. The head of the Port of Los Angeles claiming that we're about to see the biggest shortages that we've seen in years. And the S&P 500 trading like acoin. All while Warren Buffett says that it's good to own other currencies besides the US dollar. We have ourselves a recipe for what seems like a lot of dark clouds in the sky. And so the question is, are we climbing the wall of worry? Or is there another episode in this series of the Trump administration rattling the markets before a
• 01:00 - 01:30 sustainable uptrend can be formed? Now, if you appreciate the work and energy that goes into preparing these long- form videos, please smash that like button. It's a free and easy way to show that you like the content. It helps get these videos out to far more viewers, and most of all, I appreciate it. Today we're going to be going over how I plan to inject my biggest buys into this market because I personally think the worst is over for crypto. But that doesn't mean that right now and right here are the best ways to re-enter into the market. As you know, I've been expecting another move down to push a
• 01:30 - 02:00 lot of my cash back into the markets as structurally I am very bullish on Bitcoin and crypto over the coming few years and I do not want to be sidelined. However, the strategy on how I plan to get that money into the markets is going to change everything. So, make sure you watch to the end of the video where I explain everything that I'm going to do on a strategic level. But the meat and potatoes of this video are really important for understanding why I'm positioning in the way that I am. So, without further ado, let's dive into this. First and foremost, we have Bitquant, who in December predicted 76K
• 02:00 - 02:30 to be the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin. And he really wasn't too far off as it pretty much wicked down to 74K. But 76 was a pretty darn good estimation. And this was while Bitcoin was trading at around $100,000. He said, "Sell and May, regret the play, which is a flip of the sell and may and walk away." That is the traditional logic and that's what we've been following for the last few years here in crypto. The last few years have had horrifically boring summers. He also said one day the bull market will begin. And he shows this chart which effectively shows that when you get over
• 02:30 - 03:00 this logarithmic regression trend line, this red line, that that's the real bull market. Now, we haven't done that yet. Once you see this, this will be obvious. You won't need me to show you because it'll be obvious on this chart. Now, I haven't seen this exact regression. It's a three-day regression. Again, it's sometimes easy to fit the regressions looking backwards more so than it is to do them forwards. So, again, this is interesting. So, Bitcoin, who called the top pretty perfectly and the bottom pretty perfectly, is expecting us to zoom to 140K at some point. He doesn't say exactly when. The question is, is it up only or do we have yet another trip
• 03:00 - 03:30 down before we eventually make our way up? Now, I think this is really important because Binance's founder, CZ, did an interview where he believes that the top for this Bitcoin bull market is 500K to a million. I want to be very clear. He did not call this a top of the 4-year cycle. He called this a top of the cycle and made sure to explain that he's not sure what the cycles even are anymore. And I think that that is going to be absolutely critical to our own analysis. Bitcoin tops at this cycle. Ooh. Uh, again, very difficult question. Um, somewhere between 500K to a million,
• 03:30 - 04:00 I think. Wow. Yeah. Now, what I'm about to go through here and show you is one, the fact that crypto way outpaced traditional markets in leading this move down. Crypto was several weeks ahead of traditional markets in actually collapsing down in response to all of the uncertainty of Trump's presidency. It's easy to see when you line up the total crypto market cap, meaning all of the value in crypto and of course traditional markets like the S&P 500. And I'm going to show you that there is a lot of dark clouds still swirling around the S&P and traditional markets
• 04:00 - 04:30 all related to trade wars, tariffs, and other kinds of economic slowdowns. Now, I personally also believe spoiler that these are not going to cause the doomsday like recession that everybody is saying is possible. I don't believe that that is in the cards. Personally, I think it's a very small percent chance. Though, of course, nothing is impossible. I do believe however that they will require another trip down to the lows, another scary trip down to the lows to be very clear. But crypto will be one step ahead of equities in putting in those lows. Check this out. If you
• 04:30 - 05:00 look at the total crypto market cap, you can see that from the original top here that we put in in about, you know, middle of December, we actually already came down upwards of 25% on the total crypto market cap. A loss of nearly $1 trillion already by midFebruary. So, if we look that exact week, the S&P was literally at its highs. Expand to a a full view here. So, you can see that on Tuesday, the 18th of February, the S&P was literally at all-time highs. But if you go to the total crypto market cap, at that point, crypto had already broken
• 05:00 - 05:30 down below this range that was set in at about 3 trillion and had put in a low almost a trillion dollars below the prior all-time high. That is a massive, massive move down. That shows that crypto was way ahead in the weakness in breaking range and eventually just completely plowed down to all kinds of lows by the time that S&P actually broke and and everything actually broke. So crypto put its all-time high in at around mid December. Mainstream markets put their all-time high in about midFebruary. That's actually a massive gap. That's about a two-month gap that
• 05:30 - 06:00 crypto had in leading the liquidity change, the change of behavior that we saw that took place. Now, of course, two months, I'm not trying to say this is a hard and fast rule. I'm just saying there was quite a bit of time that crypto put in its highs before mainstream markets put in its highs. And while I believe that Q2 represents the bottom of this local man-made Trump induced recessionary fears trade war-based pullback, I do believe that crypto is still ahead of traditional markets. And that would mean that if I'm correct and we are in the process of recovering that mainstream markets if
• 06:00 - 06:30 they go down and have another trip down that they would be putting in either its ultimate low or at least sweeping the lows and that crypto would be putting in a lower high. And again, if you look at the total market cap of crypto, you can see that it is still well below even though Bitcoin is performing a lot better than this, you can see that it's just well below this particular weekly range that it never ever got back above. So, even though we've had this ripper, uh, the total market cap is still looking abysmal. And you can see on Bitcoin, this candle right here is where we went all the way down. And we still
• 06:30 - 07:00 have yet to really get above that. We had a little bit of a fake out here, but we haven't sustainably gotten above this level. Even though we're above, you know, this level, which was the weekly prior low or the higher low before that, we are still not above the actual breakdown level, which again, it just gives kind of a bull trap feel, you know, like it's a bit of a mirage. Again, a V-shaped recovery given everything going on. no real help from the Federal Reserve, no big stimulus coming from the Trump administration, still a ton of confusion around trade deals and how these are all going to shake out. That is precisely why I think we have not made it totally out of the
• 07:00 - 07:30 woods yet. But I do think that that clarity is coming and I believe that it's coming in Q2. That's my general belief. And we know this because the time clock has been put on this by the Trump administration. They're the ones who said 90-day pause, literally the beginning of Q2. They said, "We're going to pause for a quarter." And now they have the 90 days to present some progress. And they know that things will get very nasty if they don't. And one of the things that I think you should be aware of, and I don't think this is a very good sign, I think that what's remarkable here is that institutional investors dumped at the lows and stayed
• 07:30 - 08:00 out. They sold low and now they're scared. And retail kept buying the entire time. So this last move upwards has been on very low liquidity driven by retailers. When have we ever seen traditional markets just run away without the institutions? Oh yeah, they're just going to let us have this round, move on, and take an L. I just don't see it happening. If maybe in crypto that can happen, but not in the traditional markets. And that means that if they really believe there's a recovery happening and that there's an opportunity here on the charts, they would be buying. And if that opportunity
• 08:00 - 08:30 starts to run away, I believe they'll pull that train right back so they can get back in at a better price. All in all, what I'm trying to say is maybe this is the first time in history that retail will run away with the bag and leave those institutions on the sideline, just FOMOing. I don't believe it. I don't believe it just yet. We'll believe it when we see it. Again, anything's possible, but I would consider that a very low likelihood. If you want scientific proof that the fears of recession are actually not over with, then look no further than Jim Kramer, who said there will be no recession this year. And we obviously know that this is the most reliable indicator because Jim
• 08:30 - 09:00 Kramer has never been right about anything ever in his life. Of course, I kid, but but honestly, it feels a bit insane. sometimes how much Jim Kramer just publicly spews things that are wrong. Another warning sign we see that private credit markets are offloading at 50 cents on the dollar. Essentially, this is a major panic signal that private credit is worried that that credit might not be coming back. It might not get repaid. So, they're willing to take a 50% haircut just to get something back. I don't know how significant this is to the overall economy, but it's not a good sign. This is not a good sign. Private credit is effectively when companies take loans on
• 09:00 - 09:30 a private market where you say okay you know you can lend your money to the government and get you know four or five percent. But if you want to get a higher yield you can get you know 8 9 10 12 sometimes even 20% if you loan to private companies depending on the risk that that comes with depending on how reliable how reputable of a company that you're lending to. And so private credit effectively not credit coming from the government that's what we're talking about. and people are offloading at 50 cents on a dollar. It sort of feels like something bad might be coming or at least they're worried about something bad coming. And why panic about it this
• 09:30 - 10:00 week? Well, the head of the Port of Los Angeles has something to say about this. And he's effectively saying that they're seeing a fullblown pause on importing that all of the importing that we saw over the last few months, that spike that was effectively preparing for tariffs and now everyone is in a wait andsee mode. So, if we're going to see shortages in supplies, in goods, if we're going to see empty shelves, if we're going to see a total change in consumer behavior, a change in prices, a change in everything, all of that is about to hit over the next coming days and weeks. So, we haven't really seen the impact of tariffs yet. But
• 10:00 - 10:30 apparently, we're about to. And according to the head of the Port of Los Angeles, it's becoming a literal ghost town over at the port, meaning practically very little ships are coming in, and they're having to cut back on manpower and hours because it's simply not needed. Again, we have these two other pieces of data. We have the NASDAQ in extreme overbought territory. And this whole move in the S&P 500 was apparently 90 basis points and driven by just 19,000 contracts. Uh which you don't need to know a lot, but just know that is very, very small amount of economic activity. Effectively, people
• 10:30 - 11:00 aren't really trading much. There's not a lot of liquidity in the system. So, the book is moving around like crazy. And the low liquidity has allowed for this massive ripper, which means you're essentially ripping up on low liquidity. It's just not a very strong sign. It's not a sign that there's a bunch of healthy flows here. This is what this means. So, we can see here that equities, the stock market are not out of the woods yet. Certainly, all of this tariff nonsense hasn't just been chewed through and processed. There is yet another foot that needs to drop here. Now, will this take us down significantly? I don't know. My guess is that there would be a pretty meaningful
• 11:00 - 11:30 down move. Will this be to new lows? My gut says yes in equities, but no in crypto. And that's because crypto is one step ahead of equities. A significant step, a multi-month step ahead. But overall, I also don't believe that the problems in the US economy are all that bad. This is pretty much a Trump induced recession pullback. As we were discussing over the last several videos, it hasn't been created by things actually breaking in the economy. In fact, one of the best macro analysts in the space right now, Fijiao, is saying the Treasury market liquidity and
• 11:30 - 12:00 monetary plumbing is fine and there's no stress. And he's, you know, doing the guy standing up meme because he feels like not enough people are saying this. Again, I don't believe the system is breaking. The economy isn't breaking. We have this short-term pain induced by tariffs that there's a lot of evidence will be resolved or have a forward-looking resolution by the end of this 90 days. And in fact, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is coming out and saying, "Look, we're up and to the right. That's how this economy works and that it's a great time to invest in America. So, come and invest." But some analysts like Mr. Warren Muppet here
• 12:00 - 12:30 have said this is the most bearish thing he's ever heard. And I will admit it is giving a steady lads deploying more capital type of vibe. I'm not going to explain that one. If you know, you know. So, as Warren Buffett is saying, it might be a good idea to own a lot of other currencies besides the dollar. The question is, what is the best currency to own? What is the best currency? And how should we go about buying it with our dollars? Cuz just yesterday, we saw an explosion in value of the Taiwanese dollar, which is crazy against the US dollar. I mean, this thing, the dollar just plummeted against the Taiwanese dollar. So, as Trump takes yet another interview about China, where he argues
• 12:30 - 13:00 we're saving hundreds of billions of dollars by simply not doing business with China, we should all be wondering to ourselves, how do we buy Bitcoin? How much can we buy? And exactly when. Now, of course, I don't have a crystal ball, but here's what I think is going to happen next. I believe we are in the midst of what translates to a Bitcoin super cycle of sorts. And that's because I do believe that the four-year cycles are not really driving this anymore, where you saw Bitcoin kind of just go down for years and then just explode after the having. I think what we're seeing here is the steady adoption of Bitcoin bit by bit, piece by piece, and
• 13:00 - 13:30 that you'll see essentially long ranges resolve to the upside eventually with big pullbacks, but essentially you're going to see Bitcoin kind of chug its way up slow and steady over several years. We've pretty much seen this play out over the last what is this starting from, you know, March of 2023, we saw this big explosion upwards in Bitcoin. You could argue it started back here in January of 2023. So over two years now, two two years and change. But you have this huge multi-month range here 217 days and then we exploded up and we had another multi-month range for what was this uh 245 days and now we are simply
• 13:30 - 14:00 in another multi-month range which if we have a similar amount of time here would lead us to you know Q3 the beginning of Q3 uh before we start exploding out of it. What I'm saying here is that this isn't about predicting short-term exactly when Bitcoin breaks the range. It's about saying, "Hey, look, chances are we'll remain in this range for a while and then we'll eventually break through and we'll make our way to the next level of the Bitcoin adoption game." But I don't see this being a situation where Bitcoin goes into these prolonged multi-year bare markets. Not
• 14:00 - 14:30 anymore. Not with the institutional adoption flow. Not with the final explosion of the corporate treasury use case. You see, what started as just one Michael Sailor in a dream has really exploded. He's saying he's going to raise $84 billion to purchase more Bitcoin, which I think a lot of people are saying, "Whoa, whoa, slow down. Slow your roll. We don't need you to have all the Bitcoin. That actually is a little scary if one entity controls maybe over 10% of Bitcoin." They essentially now are in control of Bitcoin. And the whole decentralization idea isn't really valid. But I had Chad GPD put together a spreadsheet of all the companies that
• 14:30 - 15:00 have either bought Bitcoin, hold Bitcoin, or plan to buy Bitcoin with their corporate treasury. And this is the explosive and exciting part. Tesla, Micro Strategy, Block, GameStop, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Galaxy Digital, CleanSpark, Hut 8, Bit Farms, and Cooler. I don't think they have Metaplanet on here out of Japan. We've seen that companies as big as Nvidia now are considering adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy because it brings a sense of calm, of safety, of stability, which is something that you don't normally associate with Bitcoin. But
• 15:00 - 15:30 when people see, hey look, Bitcoin might be the big winner out of all of this, and our companies might get absolutely destroyed based on tariffs, import costs, and all of these now wildly changing global trade dynamics. Well, Bitcoin is simply unaffected. In fact, it does what it does even better as it's literally designed to exist outside of this system. That permissionless and decentralized network effect is finally getting its time in the light. So, if this becomes a thing where all publicly traded companies start saving in Bitcoin, that is insane. and it turns all of public markets, the trillions and trillions of dollars, the quadrillions
• 15:30 - 16:00 of dollars within public markets, it turns that into effectively a funnel into Bitcoin, which is a relatively very small asset. So, I believe as things get rocky and weird in equities land, it's leading to huge entities to look at Bitcoin as a potential hedge. And that is really the beginning of this new narrative. Again, we've known about the Michael Sailor strategy, but we've not seen the contagion of what this is going to do when a ton more publicly traded companies start to use this Bitcoin savings strategy as a way to bring even more excitement to buyers for their
• 16:00 - 16:30 stock. And we know that if it does work and people start seeing that as exciting, say Nvidia starts saving a meaningful chunk of their balance sheet in Bitcoin, and people start pricing Nvidia even higher, anticipating future gains for their Bitcoin holdings, that can be an insane cycle where we don't just have one micro strategy, but we have dozens. And this is not factoring at all the potential for a Bitcoin strategic reserve, for the United States buying, for states buying, for other countries, smaller countries buying. These are all on the table as well. Now, before I get into exactly how I'm going to play this, cuz let's go into the charts now and let's talk about exactly
• 16:30 - 17:00 how I plan to trade this and where my expectations are. I want to take a second to shout out the sponsor of this channel, NordVPN. Now, as you guys know, if you follow this channel, NordVPN is the main sponsor of this channel, and it's a product I use and love every single day. I was the unfortunate victim of a SIM swap attack and they used information that I exposed unfortunately voluntarily that could have totally been hidden if I had been using NordVPN to browse everywhere and everything online which is now my absolute default and something that I cannot live without.
• 17:00 - 17:30 Obviously, we know about the benefits of VPNs like watching content in other countries. But to me, protecting your identity online as a crypto user is one of the most important things you can do, period. And it only costs a few dollars to get signed up. There's a special big fat discount if you use the link in the description below and most of all it supports the channel and I appreciate it. So, thank you so much for using NordVPN. I highly highly recommend them. As I've said many times, there are many mistakes that you can be forgiven for in crypto. There's a lot of confusion. Not using a VPN is far too simple and it's not something you'll be forgiven for. So, make sure you use a VPN. So, let's
• 17:30 - 18:00 talk about price action. First of all, I believe what Doc is saying here is really important. Life is better when you accept our Lord and Savior 9-month range into your heart. This is pretty much what I was showing here is you have these nine-month ranges that we've experienced 2023 in 2024 and now in 2025 we have a clear range. And so the question is how long until we break it? And if history is a guide, expecting it not really to break for a while or until it does is the way to do it. And in general, you want to be controlling your risk and selling stuff up at the high end of the range and buying stuff at the
• 18:00 - 18:30 low end of the range. You don't have to be a full-blown trader to do this, but again, we did this as we were starting to break down. We sold stuff up up up in here and then we wanted to buy stuff down in here and we bought some stuff but we want to buy more. Now I personally believe that we will start to see things get really really spicy especially as we get towards the end of the year. Bitcoin will be starting to break its way up in response to global liquidity which is just up and to the right. And we will also see hopefully this entire tariff trade war massive intervention into the economy and markets that will most likely have been
• 18:30 - 19:00 chewed through and digested. Again, I could be wrong here, but my gut just genuinely feels like this is not a convincing enough uh move up that this just feels like another bearish move up and we're sort of about to go down and start exploring first this middle of the range, but eventually maybe even the lower end of the range. So, of course, I want to plan my trading around what happens if we get back to the high 80s. Obviously, if we switch to the daily chart, there's quite a bit of demand here above 90K. We can see these uh these big wicks and these candle bodies closing here. I think that we'll
• 19:00 - 19:30 probably see uh some really nice bounces around 90K and maybe between 90 and 92K will be the bottom of this move and that you know we could hit here and just go all the way up. I think that would be potentially optimistic. I think that would be the most optimistic move. But I do think that if tariffs and all this confusion around trade do hit hard and the mainstream markets do correct like I expect. I wouldn't be surprised to see um Bitcoin definitely retest this original range breakout here at 85. So, I plan to buy some here just in case it does one of these and we go all the way up from there. That's just it. That
• 19:30 - 20:00 would be great. But really, it can come all the way down even to this, you know, 76K level and retest that. And remember, this was the prior low. So, it wouldn't even be making a a new low. And that could be its higher low. And eventually, then we work our way up throughout the rest of the summer, etc. My point is, I want to be a buyer here, and I want to start sizing in my buys first a little bit at 90. I want to have some fuel here in case we come back down to the 88 range here. This was this original tariff, you know, liberation day breakout. And I still want to have cash in case we get down to these ranges. I
• 20:00 - 20:30 don't believe we will break below these ranges, right? I don't believe that we'll break below the prior all-time high of 74. That's not my current case. I'm not looking at that unless something crazy hits the fan in mainstream markets and and really stuff's falling like a rock. I just don't feel like that's the situation we're in. I feel like what's going to happen is people are going to get so emotional on the next move down in the stock market. And institutions, remember, they're not in this move up. So, they're hoping this goes down. And we all know institutions don't play fair. So, there's a lot of reasons I believe that there would be another move lower in the stock market before we
• 20:30 - 21:00 actually see a sustainable recovery. But, I believe that if we do make new lows in the stock market, that would come with a ton of bad news. That would probably represent peak fear, peak uncertainty, and probably the ultimate low for equities. Again, this is just my gut. This could be totally wrong. We could throw this all out. But that's how I'm playing this is I'm expecting for there to be new lows in the stock market and not new lows in crypto. And if we get that combination that I'm expecting, I believe that any of those buys over this next dip are going to age extremely extremely well. There's something coming
• 21:00 - 21:30 up that I think a lot of people aren't really focused on, but will become a huge narrative as we get towards the end of this year. I'm going to put it on your radar right now. Now, we heard of course that Jerome Powell is not going to be replaced by Trump. He knows that that would spook the markets. it would cause way too much uncertainty and fear and he doesn't want to do that. But the reality is that he doesn't need to. He said today he gets to replace that person in a very short period of time, right? He was doing an interview. Here's the source on MSNBC. Here's the clip. Do you rule out removing Fed Chair Jerome
• 21:30 - 22:00 Pal? I'm not, you know, I get to change him very quickly anyway. You know, it's in a very short period of time in 2026. So Trump doesn't need to replace Jerome Pal. He doesn't need to go all crazy mode because he gets to replace him in May of next year. That's right. For those who want specifics, May 15th, 2026, that's when Jerome Powell's term ends. And we will, I'm sure, already be looking forward to what Trump or who Trump is going to replace Jerome Powell with. We already know that that person is going to probably agree ahead of time to be cutting rates. So, if rates aren't already low enough, we can assume that
• 22:00 - 22:30 that person is going to come in with a steamroller and lower rates. And that excitement around lower rates or potential for QE essential support from the Fed is going to probably start informing the market as we get into Q4 or Q1 of next year. People are going to start looking forward say okay well in Q2 of 2026 we get a new Fed chair and that Fed chair is going to be politically accommodating to Trump because guess what? Everybody's politically accommodating to Trump. So to me, I see a lot of reasons why the peak uncertainty, the peak of the negative emotion around what's going on
• 22:30 - 23:00 with tariffs, equity, trade war is all going to start coalesing here within Q2. Within Q2, we want to see this completed. Wouldn't you know that the 90-day pause for tariffs ends? You know when it ends? July 2nd, two days before July 4th, the biggest, arguably the biggest American holiday that there is. So, if you thought Liberation Day was big, I believe that there's going to be a huge unveiling on July 4th of something, some kind of proof or some kind of symbol that Trump and his
• 23:00 - 23:30 administration can say, "Look, we did it. We won. The war is over. Onward and upwards to this new era of American prosperity." And mind you, a ton of goods and services and specific carveouts from tariffs have already been issued. So, we know that no showstoppers are probably going to be really ruining the American economy. So, my thesis is simple. we're going to see peak ugliness when it comes to this trade war in Q2. My thesis is also that crypto front ran this not just by a few days but by several weeks to multiple months and that if equities have not yet bottomed which I suspect that they might not have
• 23:30 - 24:00 bottomed that this next drop will be the bottom and that people will be screaming for zero for depression for all of these crazy outcomes that probably won't occur and that that will be the peak buying opportunity where I will be injecting my biggest buys into cryptocurrency that I've made in years. Now, I'm going to be going over my buying plan as this happens step by step. So, make sure you subscribe to the channel with that bell notification on. These are going to be extremely time-sensitive videos that I'm putting a lot of thought, love, and care into because I want to get this absolutely right. Again, no one's perfect. I'm certainly not, but I'm going to do my best to absolutely crush
• 24:00 - 24:30 this extremely confusing time in the markets with all of you. If you guys like this video, make sure to click on this one popping up right now cuz I know you'll absolutely love it. And I'll see you very soon on the next episode.