New Lows Coming S&P and Nasdaq | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor

Summary

Highlights

• Michael Oliver predicts a major bear market for S&P and Nasdaq, suggesting significant market corrections ahead. 📉
• Gold has been beating the S&P in recent years and continues to be a strong asset in volatile times. 🏆
• Silver recently experienced a sharp decline, presenting what could be a prime buying opportunity. 🥈
• The banking sector shows weak signs, with major banks seeing substantial stock value losses. 🏦
• Oil prices might rebound significantly if they regain certain price thresholds in the near term. 🛢️

Key Takeaways

• The S&P and Nasdaq are likely facing a prolonged bear market due to excess monetary expansion and rate issues. 📉
• Gold remains a strong performer and is expected to continue its upward trend amidst stock market volatility. 🏆
• Silver's recent drop is seen as a buying opportunity for a potential slingshot recovery. 🥈
• Major banks are under pressure, and their performance could indicate broader economic troubles. 🏦
• Oil may see an explosive return if price regains key levels in the coming months. 🛢️

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction with Michael Oliver In the chapter titled 'Introduction with Michael Oliver,' the discussion opens with a greeting to Michael Oliver, who is in Colorado, and a conversation about the favorable change in seasons from winter to spring. The mood is hopeful that the markets will also improve shortly. It is noted that significant economic changes have occurred over the past month, with $10 trillion being eliminated from the market, setting the stage for the topics to be explored.
• 00:30 - 01:30: Market Losses and Key Levels The chapter titled 'Market Losses and Key Levels' discusses the recent downturn in financial markets, highlighting significant losses amounting to $6.6 trillion in just two days. The S&P 500 index has decreased by 17% from its highs, while the NASDAQ has fallen by 20%. Despite these declines, there was a notable recovery as many stocks ended the day in the green. The chapter references a key level of 4,800 for the S&P, which was identified as a previous high. This discussion is centered around whether the current market situation represents a turning point.
• 01:30 - 03:30: S&P and NASDAQ Overview The chapter focuses on the current state and future outlook of the S&P and NASDAQ 100 indices. The key point discussed is the significant levels previously identified for NASDAQ 100 at 16,500, which were reached on the discussed date. The speaker provides a forecast for the S&P, suggesting a considerably bearish outlook, predicting a major bear market. This is referred to as a 'cleansing event,' given the unprecedented 15-year bubble in the U.S. markets.
• 03:30 - 05:30: Monetary Policies and Gold's Performance This chapter discusses how current monetary policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates near zero for most of the past fifteen years, have influenced economic bubbles, implying that current economic uptrends are significantly larger than previous known bubbles. The chapter implies that unlike past bubbles, the current situation is predominantly driven by monetary events rather than a robust economy.
• 05:30 - 09:30: Stock Market Crash History and Economic Indicators The chapter discusses the historical context of stock market crashes and their relationship with economic indicators. It highlights how low interest rates have made borrowing money extremely affordable, leading to increased investments in the stock market. The proliferation of cheap money has resulted in accelerated money supply growth, a trend observed approximately every decade in the US and other major economies like Japan and Europe. This ongoing monetary inflation is often mirrored in the value of gold, which serves as an inverse indicator of money's degradation in value.
• 09:30 - 12:30: Impact of Federal Reserve Actions This chapter focuses on the impact of Federal Reserve actions on the gold market, highlighting a significant bullish trend that started in February 2016. Despite broader economic fluctuations, the chapter notes that gold experienced a shift in market sentiment when its price exceeded $1140, indicating a strong, ongoing bullish trend. The chapter suggests that as of now, according to annual momentum metrics, there is no sign of this bullish market phase ending.
• 12:30 - 15:30: Banking Sector Concerns This chapter explores the dynamics of the bull markets within the banking sector context, drawing historical parallels. It discusses how certain factors and conditions, such as those seen between 1979-1980 and 2000-2011, contribute to market acceleration phases, especially in gold and silver.
• 15:30 - 18:00: Gold and Silver as Investment Opportunities The chapter titled 'Gold and Silver as Investment Opportunities' discusses the trends of gold and silver in the investment market, highlighting significant movements from 2010 to 2011. In particular, silver experienced a notable surge during the latter part of this decade-long bull market. The speaker draws parallels to current market conditions, suggesting that the market is in a similar phase as back then. A critical factor identified is the importance of breaking the stock market bubble, which could redirect funds into safer investment options like gold and silver. This redirection occurs despite a substantial portion of money being lost during such financial adjustments. The chapter implies that both experienced ('smart') and less experienced ('dumb') investors play roles in this shift.
• 18:00 - 20:30: Oil Market Analysis The chapter titled 'Oil Market Analysis' mainly discusses the shift of investors and money away from traditional markets like the S&P towards alternatives such as gold. Over the past few years, gold has shown a higher percentage gain compared to the S&P. The summary points out that not only has gold outperformed the S&P in recent years, but it is also starting to accelerate in its relative performance, making it a competitive alternative for investors.
• 20:30 - 25:30: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics The chapter 'Gold and Silver Market Dynamics' discusses the shift in financial trends, particularly focusing on the S&P index and its behavior a month or so ago. The S&P experienced a minor decline ('rolled over'), which resulted in a significant breakout ('spread broke out') over a major base level, indicating an acceleration in its movement. This suggests that money flows are directed towards areas showing better performance. Furthermore, the chapter notes that commodities have not been particularly attractive as investment targets over the past few years, remaining stagnant around the 100 level on Bloomberg. Consequently, commodities have not yet drawn significant investment capital.
• 25:30 - 31:30: Impact of Economic Cycles on Gold The chapter discusses the impact of economic cycles on the price of gold, highlighting how gold has continued to advance along with silver. It references a significant event in October 2008 related to the Federal Reserve while pointing out that gold had been in a bull trend since the 2000s, starting at $260 and reaching $1000 by early 2008. The chapter emphasizes the economic factors influencing this trend.
• 31:30 - 38:30: Skepticism about Bitcoin The chapter titled 'Skepticism about Bitcoin' discusses the financial events that occurred during the onset of the bear market for stocks, particularly noting the performance of the S&P 500 and gold. The narrative starts in October 2007 when the stock market peaked, and details the S&P 500's significant decline in early 2008. During this period, gold continued to rise until it experienced a correction in the middle of its bullish trend. Specifically, in October 2008, when the stock market plummeted by 30%, gold also faced a significant downturn. The chapter emphasizes that during this time, the S&P 500 was already well off its peak when the gold market recognized a shift.
• 38:30 - 41:00: Conclusion and Summary The chapter addresses common misconceptions about the relationship between stock market performance and gold prices. Contrary to popular belief, a decline in the stock market does not necessarily lead to a decline in gold prices. The text points out historical data from 2000 to 2007 which showed that while the S&P 500 remained range-bound, gold prices were increasing. The correlation between stock market downturns and gold price declines is argued to be weak, using a specific month as an example where both declined simultaneously, only to diverge again in November.

New Lows Coming S&P and Nasdaq | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 michael thank you very much for joining us today How are things in the great state of Colorado oh they're looking good Spring's looking good Maybe winter's over Hope so Yeah I love this time of year Hopefully Hopefully the market's going to improve here in the next few days or the next few weeks And that's what I want to talk to you about The last time we spoke I can't believe it was only a month ago and so much has changed $10 trillion have been wiped out
• 00:30 - 01:00 from the markets here since January Just in the last two days $6.6 trillion have been wiped out from the financial markets The S&P is down 17% from the highs The NASDAQ is down 20% from the highs And we had some violent moves today and I thought I got to reach out to Michael and just see if today is a turning point because a lot of names finished in the green today And the last time we spoke you said 4,800 was the key level on the S&P That was the high that
• 01:00 - 01:30 we saw back in 2022 And on the NASDAQ 100 you said the key level was 16,500 And we hit both of those levels today So why don't we start with the S&P and give him give me your latest update on the S&P and where you think it might be going I think it's going a lot lower I think we're headed for a major disastrous bare market a cleansing event We've had a 15-year plus bubble like we've never seen in the United States
• 01:30 - 02:00 Both in terms of duration of the uptrend and two the dimensions multiple gains Compare it to 23 to 29 or the mid70 high or the dot high or the 2007 mortgage high None of those bubbles that we now call bubbles in the past compare to what we have now And it's it's a monetary event It is not due to a great economy It's due to the Fed cutting rates to effectively zero for 10 of the last 15 years And even when they raised them
• 02:00 - 02:30 they raised them to the levels that were still dirt cheap compared to the last 50 years So basically free money So everybody got drugged up and they bought stocks with it uh and uh you know the money supply growth accelerated It always goes pretty good anyway Every 10 years you basically double the money supply in the US It's probably true around the world too Japan Europe So continual money degradation and uh you know that's reflected best in gold the inverse of
• 02:30 - 03:00 that And our focus right now is we thought that when the stock the gold's already been going up since 2015 Okay In a broad context it's still a bull It turned bullish by our metrics in February 2016 when price got up to 1140 Its bare low had been 1050 And nothing has changed since early 2016 via our annual momentum metrics of gold to argue that it's it's over
• 03:00 - 03:30 nothing In fact I think there's a lot more to go And I thought one of the factors or the key factor to help get that acceleration phase of the bull market underway And by that I mean take a look at what happened in 1979 to 1980 Compare that to the prior couple years That was when gold accelerated upside Silver left the earth practically And look at the bull market that was from 2000 to 2011 in gold Much of it occurred
• 03:30 - 04:00 from 2010 to 11 And for silver it went berserk in the final several quarters of that that decade plus bull market I think we're there again But the factor that I wanted to see and I thought technically was important was to break the stock market bubble A couple reasons If you break the bubble the a lot of that money is not just going to get burned up in the fire Okay Yeah a lot of it does It gets destroyed But smart money be or dumb
• 04:00 - 04:30 money finally realizes I better get out of this thing and move somewhere else And there are very few alternatives out there that if you look over the last couple years that have been competing with the S&P In fact gold has been beating the S&P for the last several years period on a percentage gain basis You go back three or four years look where gold was Look where the S&P got to its high Measure the percent gain Gold beat it Now gold is starting to accelerate its relative performance to
• 04:30 - 05:00 the S&P especially a month or so ago whereas at the early point after S&P sort of rolled over a little bit that spread broke out exploded over a major base saying okay I'm accelerating versus you that money flow is one factor because it seeks the place that's doing better and frankly commodities have been laying on wasteland for two three is around 100 level on the Bloomberg So they've really not been going up to attract money yet I think they
• 05:00 - 05:30 will but gold has continued to advance So is silver The other issue is the Federal Reserve If you go back and examine that event that occurred in October of 2008 now that was a point where gold was into its bull trend already since 2000 lows at $260 It had advanced up to a thousand by early 2008 And a lot of that advance
• 05:30 - 06:00 occurred while the stock market was starting its bare market because it peaked in October of 2007 So between October excuse me and early 2008 S&P was slumping hard Gold continued up but gold decided wanted a correction in the middle of an ongoing bull trend It had a very nasty month in October 2008 when the stock market puked 30% that month but recognize the S&P was already a year off its high when gold said "Oh okay I'm
• 06:00 - 06:30 going to join you for a bad month or so." Everybody thought "Oh if the stock market goes down gold must go down." First off they ignored all the history from 2000 to 2007 where the S&P was caught in a range bare market bull market but still in a box and gold was just lifting off The correlation is very poor terms of if the stock market goes down gold will go down It's very bad assumption Yes for that month it did But what happened in November this is what's
• 06:30 - 07:00 so interesting The Fed started cutting rates actually one month before the stock market peaked in October 2007 They started cutting rates in September but still the market top We called it a bubble in hindsight mortgage back crisis and started down They kept cutting rates all the way down but that didn't work And by October of 2008 some events had occurred like we the banks had been going down hard and they ignored it They ignored the stock market Oh yeah
• 07:00 - 07:30 they did rate cuts but they didn't do anything else But after that October collapse remember Layman Brothers actually went under in September 2008 The next month the stock market collapsed 30% And in November finally the Fed said "Oh gosh we got to do something else." They looked at the Japanese playbook and they picked up the QE book and they employed it They started QES That was in November Look what happened then But
• 07:30 - 08:00 stock market continued down hard in November and kept going down till March of 2009 So the QE didn't help the stock market In fact from that October close the big bad month for the stock market it went down 31 more% by its March 2009 low So QE didn't help over that fivemonth period October through March Gold exploded in November It had its October blood bath and it took off and by early 2009 was back to
• 08:00 - 08:30 its highs again The pivot point was when the Fed panicked right after the October collapse in the stock market They came in with QES and we know they continued them for a long time Gold got fuel in its tank and took off Now I'm not arguing that's necessary but I suspect though the Powell wants to smile and smirk and prance around the press conference and look like everything's good Um that that bank collapse is
• 08:30 - 09:00 getting their attention now Stock market being down 21% in the S&P to today's low from the recent high and NASDAQ down you know about 30 or not not 30 but a lot more than 21 They didn't they didn't care But those banks are down 30% plus well 50% more drop than the S&P And yet that's not and those banks can you be more specific are we talking JP
• 09:00 - 09:30 Morgan no we're talking the whole basket I mean you can basically flip up any major bank But two examples and they're not rare by the way This percent I'm giving you is not unusual Goldman Sachs and City Corp down 34 plus percent 34 plus percent since their recent peak And everybody's looking at Nvidia like that matters No to the Fed that doesn't matter What matters is the banks They delayed back in 2008 and
• 09:30 - 10:00 bloodshed followed They had to see layman go under They had to see a stock market crash and finally they said "Okay we're going to do QES." By then hell had basically done its thing Then went down 31 more% but still those bank events happened and only then did they respond Bernani it was late When COVID hit back in 2020 they immediately did two ease again They weren't lagged this time And of
• 10:00 - 10:30 course everything shot up Gold silver stock market so forth Gold and silver have continued but the banks collapsing now I think is the headline Not it's not even a headline is the factor that investors better pay attention to because Powell can say all he wants to comfy about well you know economy looks good and uh inflation is not quite where we want it to be Well hell if you look at the Bloomberg the last few days it dropped 7% Crude oil dropped to lows for a
• 10:30 - 11:00 couple years copper dropped the full dollar So a lot of commodities drop So if they look at that instead of their data that's lagged to reality uh they'll realize oh inflation subdued by their way of measuring which is really a false way It's money growth is the issue So the question is will they do something now because the bank alarm is starting to go off Uh and when you drop 34% in a matter of a couple months I mean wake up
• 11:00 - 11:30 you know something's wrong And I'm not just talk it's not just one or two banks here It's basically all the big banks So uh that's what we're focused on right now And we think that's probably what Powell and his gang are focused on even though they don't admit it So so you're suggesting that banks might have some sort of underlying issues Well I don't care if they do We know there's a debt problem Commercial real estate is a heavy debt problem and it's behaved very badly
• 11:30 - 12:00 uh uh you know don't look at mortgages now Look at commercial real estate debt problem that's reaching a crisis point this year because of the rotation of the you have to pay stuff off now at much higher rates Everybody knows that yet It hasn't had a response until just recently RWR VMQ these are ETFs of commercial real estate started to implode and then naturally therefore the banks did So focus on the debt side of the
• 12:00 - 12:30 market the commercial debt and the potential victims of that the major banks And you can bet they're not quietly sitting back saying "Hey Jerome you're doing good job." Okay so that's all behind the scenes The question is will Powell really sit back and let the banks drop another 10% without doing anything or is he going to have a mob of bankers outside his door okay so now gold monetary
• 12:30 - 13:00 metals are pretty smart You know they've been around millennia in terms of being money okay and the people who treat silver recently like it's a dog even though gold's dropped single percentages right now I think we're 5% off the the high close or something It's it's a sneeze compared to what's going on elsewhere And silver had that collapse last week which was you know really Thursday and Friday of last week was the collapse It wasn't the whole
• 13:00 - 13:30 week It was just those days And today we rallied uh from the low of the day to the high of the day Rallied two and a half $3 or so End up closing about two bucks $2.50 off the low today Big reversal in silver So maybe silver realizes it shouldn't be treated or investors some investors realize shouldn't be treated like a commodity Instead if gold's not collapsing why should I and therefore it's starting to snap back and it won't take much to snap
• 13:30 - 14:00 back big time I personally view the selloff in silver as a major opportunity to buy It's much like the co event You go back and look at the charts then you uh it exploded out of there like there was you know total error that it had made Anyway I think that's what's going on And the question is will the S&P and the NASDAQ bounce off of our bounce level which we defined i don't know whether it's good for a day or two or maybe a
• 14:00 - 14:30 couple weeks but it is not a permanent low And Michael I just want to reiterate one more time So you said 4,800 That was the high we saw back in was it 2022 it was early 2022 2022 It bounced off of that Today it closed uh 5,60 Yeah it got to 4830 So it got down near that number Actually the high then was 4818 I think it was to be precise So if you're an idiot with a price chart and pardon me for saying that because price is often a bold liar you draw a line across the
• 14:30 - 15:00 2022 to high and you say "I'm going to buy on top of that high." Well super There's enough reasons to maybe have a trade there We could see some momentum reasons for a bounce Okay NASDAQ 100's high was about 16,500 We got to 16,530 today Okay Same story Its high was back in November of 2021 a couple months before the S&P It peaked before the S&P So both indices are back to what was the old high Other words we've wiped
• 15:00 - 15:30 out everything since those highs We've wiped out in a couple weeks So we've wiped out the entirety of 2024 gains and a part of 2023 in a matter of a couple weeks which of course can generate panic among individual investors I'm always shocked I'm always shocked by how markets they take so long to move up but so quick to move down Yeah Yeah And they don't give you a chance And we've been saying for months top is is occurring In fact we got bearish on the
• 15:30 - 16:00 S&P back in January way above current levels And on the NASDAQ about 400 points above today's low 4,000 points above today's low And thought we would get a bounce here And we're getting a bounce Uh the question is is it a one one day phenomenon fact the S&P and Dow didn't even close up today NASDAQ closed up trivial amount Uh but we got a bounce The question is is the start of something or is it merely a stupid bounce off of an old price high because
• 16:00 - 16:30 I'll tell you what if you do bounce off of it like we did today and maybe hold it for a couple more days or a week or so you don't want to go back through there And there's some momentum reasons we argue that you don't want to go back through there that are horrendous structures waiting to be broken But there's also the idiot price level because if people buy at 4,800 S&P and suddenly you you go up 100 200 400 points which is trivial in percent terms and then next thing you know two weeks later you're back at 4700 or something
• 16:30 - 17:00 Then they lose hope because even their bounce point didn't work Something's wrong In other words uh so I don't trust the balance I think there's a lot more to come and I think you got to watch the banks It's far more important And look at where they are or even look at Apple Look where it is compared to its old highs you know Um but especially watch the banks because that's what will gut kick Powell and his gang And so okay so we hit 4,800 we closed
• 17:00 - 17:30 just over 5,000 I mean do you think the S&P Do you see the S&P bouncing 10% No Okay And any sort of bounce that we get in either the S&P or the NASDAQ you got to sell it I Yeah there'll be a point to sell I'm not sure where that is but I don't trust this bounce level I regard it as that only a bounce and the kind of thing that could sucker in some buyers And I think that you know when you
• 17:30 - 18:00 define this as a bounce point in people's eyes they say "Oh look we made a reversal and we're up for a week now and you know etc etc." Taking out that low will upset the price guys And so the next leg down where do we go to on the S&P i don't know I think it could be vastly deep like you know a couple thousand but I'm not predicting that What I'm arguing is that the depth of the move I'm unsure of but most bare markets you go back to 29 to
• 18:00 - 18:30 32 mid70s to 74 which was a crash at the end By the way gold was going up all during that time Uh the dot high to the dot low the 2007 high 2009 low Generally they lasted two and a half to three years but the dimensions varied like 29 to 32 was like 80% or so Uh.com top S&P went down 50% between 2000 2002 but
• 18:30 - 19:00 NASDAQ 100 went down 82% Uh 2007 to 2009 was a 50% drop in the S&P This time it's a bigger bubble And by that what I mean fundamentally on that aside from the technical fact it's a bubble So by the way is India and Japan they have bubbles as well China does not Uh they're breaking also in a big way in sync with us So it's not just us it's them too So this is global But
• 19:00 - 19:30 when you break something like this what you do is you expose error And I don't just mean people buying stocks too high I'm talking about people who make business decisions families that decide to expand you know sell their house and buy more acreage and build a new house and suddenly the debt's hitting them in the face and the guy's income doesn't look so good in about two months etc etc Uh so there's a lot of errors exposed that will be fundamental type things data points for
• 19:30 - 20:00 the Fed for example In fact there was one woman reporter who stood up in that press conference Friday and and asked him a question They should have smacked him in the face and she he said "Well you know economy looks good You know data points look good etc." And she said "Yeah but the data points usually turn down after the market goes down." He hit him in the face with a fact you know and he fumbled his way through it you know but that's the reality He's going to be hit with data points and knock him knock him off where he's got justification at that point But my assertion is he's
• 20:00 - 20:30 already got the justification Banks Yeah But to your point they're always behind the curve so they're going to act way too well No they they weren't In CO for example they learned They entered immediately soon as the event Hippen they went in Bernani taught a lesson I mean he waited too long We had total bank implosion by the time he did QE I think this time they know better And uh even the friends of the Fed were telling them you you hold it up too long Too
• 20:30 - 21:00 long And so the last time we spoke we were talk we were comparing this pullback to what we saw in 2000 It was a low it was a long slow grind Every day the market's down one two 3% and it went on for two years You mentioned earlier was never really a crash Yeah Right And it was the the S&P dropped 50% Uh do you envision that same thing now so let's just say I'm not sure again I'm not sure how deep we're going Yeah The the point I'm making is you're going to bust the
• 21:00 - 21:30 market in such a big way that many people will be hurt because frankly if the only thing maybe I said this last time when we talked the only thing made people smile for the last year really six months especially is their retirement account Hey 2024 up 20% Isn't that great oh you can smile everything else in their life was basically a big question mark Okay now suddenly even their retirement account sucks And a lot of the people that are
• 21:30 - 22:00 involved in the markets now they've never seen a a pullback right they haven't seen a pullback before especially like the one we saw in the early 2000s when it goes on day after day week after week month after month Yeah Yeah Yeah And uh a lot of people didn't even see the 2008 break You know they got they became a investment adviser 10 years ago Okay So anyway it's happening again but this time the bubble is far bigger Therefore the depth and the realworld industry consequences will
• 22:00 - 22:30 be far worse And the Fed is really an historic relic And I've argued a lot of big things are going to change in this event this bubble breaking It's going to be so horrendous that it will cause a lot of doubt as to institutions ass economic assumptions and I'm going to predict I'm pretty confident in it And it's not just because of Trump being in office that the Fed won't exist in several years
• 22:30 - 23:00 maybe even sooner Not because he doesn't like it but because there's a lot of mainstream type economists who've always liked the Fed but realize that you know it's sort of lagged reality They create boom bust cycles and then when they get going and unfold the other side of the boom bus cycle uh their reply to cut rates and so forth doesn't do any good They cut rates all the way down 20202 Jay Powell's term is up in 2026
• 23:00 - 23:30 Yeah You think he survives that long i don't I don't know if the Fed survives that long because of public doubt and maybe Trump takes some action I don't know But when you get the upheaval that I'm expecting there will be in the street type consequences and political consequences where certain concepts are viewed as invalid Uh and I think that's one of the vulnerable points is the existence of the Fed which has only been around one real long human
• 23:30 - 24:00 lifetime Okay 100 plus years and it doesn't really have a good history if you look at it reality Uh it creates monetary booms stock booms follow then suddenly there's a stock bust because it got unrealistic The bust starts to occur The Fed tries to respond with lower rates It never works The market flushes itself out Then finally it goes back up and because the Fed's been pumping money into it for so long Finally it takes hold and goes up again So that's not
• 24:00 - 24:30 going to work this time Now they're going to try with QES or something like that buying assets just like they did at CO They bought ETFs high yield corporate debt ETFs They were buying them like crazy and it helped uh for that brief period Got up to the 2022 highs Um I don't think it's going to work this time because the bubble's far bigger Uh another sector that's in trouble although it's rallying lately and we would wouldn't be shocked
• 24:30 - 25:00 if it rallies more over the next quarter or so T-Bots meaning yields dropping prices rallying Uh and I'm sure Trump's smiling about that because that's one asset he'd like to rally get the yields lower and long-term debt I don't maybe that was part of his his plan I don't know But uh other interest rates are not I mean corporate debt is rising in yields So it's not the same story But uh there's only one real alternative out there and that's real money meaning gold and
• 25:00 - 25:30 silver They've proven themselves over millennia Uh before we talk a little more about gold and silver I want to ask you about oil because this has been really volatile Went from 70 bucks to 60 bucks in a heartbeat down 14% and it didn't help that OPEC also said they were going to increase production but um thoughts on oil yeah oil is a lagged component to the Bloomberg right now You get a Bloomberg commodity index which we analyze monthly We put out a commodity
• 25:30 - 26:00 report Bloomberg is trying to turn up In fact we've had enough positive signals a month in January at just a little bit above where we are right now like at 101 that Bloomberg was going to come up out of a base and turn up We think the commodity category is vastly underpriced historically I mean when you're dealing with Bloomberg at 100 its bare low was in the high 50s and it rose to 140 in 2022 And when that war started it
• 26:00 - 26:30 basically peaked and went down didn't go up when the war started in Ukraine It went down 13 days later It peaked Oil went down with it Copper went down with it Grains went down with it Gold and silver going up Now when commodities boom from late 22 20 to that 2022 high gold was actually flat So they weren't in sync with gold But they're now at 100 Look back at the price levels we've seen since 2008 It was 237 on the Bloomberg
• 26:30 - 27:00 We're at 100 Okay In 2011 I think it was 170 something It's at 100 So just on a price basis Bloomberg is not inflated Other words the monetary excesses we may have seen over the last 10-15 years didn't go into commodities went into stocks And when the money moves out of stocks it seeks a cheaper place where the risk is less and the reward potentially more And commodities frankly have greater reward potential and far
• 27:00 - 27:30 less risk potential Yes oil just puked It had this flat floor in a price chart around 65 for a couple years after the 2022 high It came down and went into a dull range between 65 and about 90 Up and down up and down going nowhere really The high this past month was like 71 to 72 area And by the way you better not go back up there again you do you're going to explode Okay we then broke through all those obvious price lows and
• 27:30 - 28:00 anybody with a price chart can say "Oh my god we took out a couple years lows." Orderly momentum says "Uh-uh don't trust the breakage to sustain It's probably a bear trap." So what I'd be looking for if I were wanting to go long oil and again it's very lagged at Bloomberg It's a weak component this time around Whereas copper and grains are stronger proponent than oil was for example in that 20 to 22 rally Oil is now a weak component And if it aborts back up into that prior range like you
• 28:00 - 28:30 see it get back above 66 let's say especially get up to 72 we think it could explode because we've got quarterly momentum dynamics that say that was basing for a couple years with lows in the mid60s That breakage down to 60 was a fake out breakout And if you were bought back up into that prior base it's saying that's a bear trap meaning it was a fake out It washed everybody out and now it's going to explode after cleansing itself
• 28:30 - 29:00 So I'd watch that on oil So right now my view on oil is watch it Uh you you cannot afford to get back up into that range especially not get up to $72 anytime this quarter Uh so I view oil as a potential explosive component here And you know a lot of economists are saying well the tariff will cause inflation so forth What they mean is higher prices of things Inflation in my book means increasing the money supply inflating the money unit uh which is an
• 29:00 - 29:30 ongoing process But anyway oil looks like a potential slingshot buy but don't buy it here Wait till it proves something Getting up above in the mid60s again especially getting up to 72 Okay So let's uh let's talk on gold Now you mentioned earlier got up to 3,200 Now let's just say it's around 3,000 bucks So it pulled back A little below Yeah Mhm Yeah Uh not much of a pullback compared to the S&P that was down 20 But what are your views is it
• 29:30 - 30:00 I don't see the breakage in gold is damaging Yeah It's scary on a price chart especially if you look at a daily or something you know Don't look at dailies Look at monthlies Uh we look primarily for gold to to maintain our bullish trend at annual momentum And we're flexible by the way Historically we've been around since ' 92 Okay MSA Uh we've called tops and bottoms in gold just like the stock market In fact back in 2011 gold hit
• 30:00 - 30:30 $1,920 in No it was in November I think or October of 2011 A couple months later we turned major bearish in December and January 2012 especially And what gold did is it flip-flopped around for a year below its high flip-flopped around either side of 1700 and collapsed in 2013 We stayed bearish all during that time So we we can go bearish on gold but that was based on annual momentum breakage Right
• 30:30 - 31:00 now that is not even in threat on gold So any sell-offs you see that look spooky You've got to build a structure on annual momentum where when you look at the momentum chart you see something that says "Oh don't want to break that." You're not near anything like that right now So I'm not fearful of major breakage I think this is a a little panic moment And if you compare it to October 2008 for example it's trivial At least in 2008 gold actually had a sharp collapse This time it's had
• 31:00 - 31:30 a sneeze Okay So and and so let me just play the devil's advocate here because you're very negative on the S&P and the NASDAQ And as we all know in uh a major pullback a major bare market everything has a correlation of one And people have to raise cash They're selling everything including gold Um said that are you concerned that that might happen no No If you go back and look at the major bears and we've reported on this uh over the last weeks and especially last
• 31:30 - 32:00 week's weekend report go back and look at 73 to 74 stock market was in a major bare trend and in fact in late 74 it crashed almost Okay What was the gold doing doubling tripling in price all during that time The whole bare market was exploding Go back to 2000 2002 Gold bottomed First off the S&P peaked in 2000 but it didn't start down until 2001 Gold bottomed then and was going up all during that 2000 to 2002 bare trend
• 32:00 - 32:30 in the stock market Gold was rising not exploding but it was in its early phase of an ongoing bull market that lasted till 2011 Uh the correlation is horrible to think that gold will follow the stock market There are a few instances at best going back decades where you can say ah see all the other time it was total inversion of that I happened to catch as a I was a futures broker at the time the 87 crash I didn't catch it big time I
• 32:30 - 33:00 had some puts on got all my customers to have puts made some good money we saw it based on quarterly momentum breakage of the S&P that it was something was wrong and sure enough two weeks it crashed during that same four-week period the several weeks prior to the crash the S&P was going down down down and then puke Okay gold was going up up up Gold gained seven and a half% while the S&P went down what 50 people collapsed off the page even despite
• 33:00 - 33:30 massive margin calls in the stock market and chaos on the New York Stock Exchange floor in terms of executing orders in an efficient way and gold went up the whole time Every all those four weeks it went up every single week S&P collapsed It was a crash Okay gold went up Okay So find me instances You can find about two I think in the last couple decades One was CO where gold
• 33:30 - 34:00 dropped with the S&P that week and then they both exploded Uh and now recently we've had a major implosion in the stock market You know 30% in the banks plus 20 plus percent the stock indices And yet gold's higher than it was a couple of months ago when the stock market peaked Yeah it's lower than where it was few weeks a week ago but it's still higher than it was a couple months ago So the correlation is bad It's a trap Don't don't buy it Okay What about silver now we've had it pulled back a little bit more It got up to 35 It's now around 29
• 34:00 - 34:30 17% Why don't you just tell us again what Yeah No silver did something that it's done before and it's always been a mistake for silver to do it or an opportunity for those who are smart enough to know that one silver is not an industrial commodity Yes it has industrial aspects but it is primarily a money For 3,000 years gold and silver have been money Sometimes silver's been official money Okay
• 34:30 - 35:00 uh silver moves with gold Go back and look at historical prices We ran charts in the weekend report showing Bloomberg crude oil showing charts of silver and gold over going back to like 2022 Go back three years or so Bloomberg big down from 2022 Oil big down from 2022 Silver and gold big up from 2022 Yeah there's jiggles in between but the basic trends are totally opposite commodities So people who sold silver on
• 35:00 - 35:30 Thursday and Friday of last week those two days panicking thinking "Oh my god end of the world stock market's crashing." One gold wasn't they ignored that and they thought "Oh well silver's with commodities." And so they sold it Now was that a correct move i think you'll find out in about a week Now today was an interesting example You know we closed two and a half we traded $3 off the low and closed $2 plus $2 and a half dollars off the low or so You know big reversal day
• 35:30 - 36:00 despite commodities breaking hard crude oil Bloomberg etc So I think it's a mistake and I think silver will slingshot back in line with gold and in fact I think it'll outpace gold Okay And I I want to ask you about one more name before uh I let you go but we got to talk about Bitcoin You have said in the past it's highly correlated to NASDAQ 100 Uh it's trading around 80,000 right now What are your thoughts i think
• 36:00 - 36:30 it's a potential disaster We've been negative on it Uh the rally up to 110,000 uh on first off the the major trend of Bitcoin on orderly momentum This is when you measure monthly action versus the three/arter average When you plot that oscillator you see something totally different than when you look at the price chart We made highs in the 73,000 level back in early last year There's a lot of distribution there Pulled back
• 36:30 - 37:00 down and then blew through that in the recent surge Got up to 110,000 a couple months ago Then dropped back down to I think it was 76,000 or so about a month ago Right A sharp breakdown there then rebounded Now we're in a new quarter and the three/4er average momentum of Bitcoin has a triple bottom Meaning it stopped at the 3/4 average two times before broke an uptrend getting down to it But
• 37:00 - 37:30 still momentum when you look at it at the same floor twice since 2023 where it comes down to its three quarter average and bounces down to its three quarter average and bounces and again today down to its three quarter average and trying to bounce I bet it doesn't hold this time and we specify the numbers in our weekend report But Bitcoin is behaving very much like NASDAQ 100 Now when you go back and look at Friday was a very bad day for NASDAQ 100 but Bitcoin held
• 37:30 - 38:00 steady for the week Net on the week it was flat So somebody was buying Bitcoin last week despite the market collapse Although remember Bitcoin collapsed from 110,000 down to the 80,000 level So I wouldn't call you know call it looking good Uh but it was a quiet day quiet week So it was like hey somebody's buying Bitcoin And my suspicion was they were thinking "Hey man these banks don't look too good." If they're smart they look at them and said "I don't want my money If I'll put my money in
• 38:00 - 38:30 Bitcoin I'll get out of the bank." You know as if that's safe Uh I frankly trust the banks I know the Fed will print the money No problem Okay Anyway uh and then today suddenly oops You know you say we're 80,000 We dropped 4 thou 5,000 points today net close and still down more than the market and I think it got down to like 76,000 So it's again it's down to the death level So I'm telling you this you don't even want to close a week around today's low anytime
• 38:30 - 39:00 this quarter If you do the real collapse is beginning And I don't know where Bitcoin's going but I it's going into a major down It's not just a drop from 110 to the mid70s It could be you know I don't know where back to 20,000 I I but it's failing at that point vastly failing And I do think it will do it if the NASDAQ is doing what we think it's doing which is the onset of a major bare trend So we went through a lot in a short
• 39:00 - 39:30 period of time and I want to thank you very much Michael I just want to summarize some of your main points Okay So in terms of the S&P it topped out at 6,100 It went down to that 2022 high which was 4,800 We had a nice bounce today 45% off of that closed just above 5,000 It might bounce in the next day in the next week in the next two weeks You don't know how much of a bounce we're going to get but any sort of rally from here has to be sold your big concern are with these banks JP
• 39:30 - 40:00 Morgan City Wells Fargo Goldman Sachs because you think there might be underlying issues there Well I know there's underlying technical issues Yeah Okay And then in terms of the NASDAQ more the same thing In terms of oil you're not going to buy it here but you're not going to sell it 60 bucks is a key level It might rally up to $70 or $72 If it does it should be bought Do I have that right yeah I think uh if
• 40:00 - 40:30 you're bearish on oil start to get unbearish you get back up in the well above 65 let's say Get over 72 gone it's gone And in terms of gold any sort of pullback here is a buying opportunity Get long gold Silver more or less the same Uh Bitcoin you're very concerned This could be it This could be the beginning of the end for Bitcoin Do I have it all right or did I miss anything yeah I'll add something on silver for you Uh again I'm personally involved heavily in the monetary metals but more so in silver although I got beat last week right i I applauded getting beat
• 40:30 - 41:00 frankly because I see a slingshot opportunity here Silver on a simple price chart doesn't top with double tops October last year 35 bucks dropped down to just above 30 I think it was back up to 35 month a few weeks ago came down took out the 30 price level went down to 28 on a $1 chart $1 point figure So you took out that last low People say "Oh my god took out the low." It doesn't make double tops When it
• 41:00 - 41:30 makes a double top it's setting up a triple top breakout Meaning when you go back to 35 which I think we're going to do that is a blastoff point You will blow that thing out and the price people will say "My god what just happened?" So if you're not in silver and you want to sit on your hands fine But you hit 35 again you're not going to stop Okay Well that was a great discussion Michael and I want to thank you very much If somebody would like to learn more about you and your services or
• 41:30 - 42:00 follow you online where can they go oliversa.com Take your time read the site We talk much about our unorthodox methodology A lot of our old reports are there Take your time Michael Once again thank you and good luck this week Thanks James