Understanding the Market through Options Data

Options Data during Market Sell Off

Estimated read time: 1:20

Summary

In this insightful and engaging session, hosted by MenthorQ, participants are guided through an understanding of how to leverage options data during market turmoil, like the recent market sell-off. The session features a comprehensive dive into data-driven market analysis, emphasizing the importance of tools such as the swing trading model and volatility metrics. As market experts dissect recent market movements, they explore strategies for predicting shifts and manning trades during high volatility events. The discussions also stress the importance of routine in analyzing market data and provide useful methods for traders to enhance their trading strategies. The focus remains on empowering traders with the ability to predict market movements and manage risk effectively, especially during unprecedented market conditions.

Highlights

Fabio and Doc show how to predict market shifts using Gamma and Delta data 🌟
Patrick explains the importance of looking at volatility trends and routines 🔍
Doc offers insights into market maker hedging strategies during high volatility 🧠
Participants learn to use Fibonacci levels in absence of data for strategic planning 📏
Patrick and team offer personal insights on trading amid market sell-offs 🎯

Key Takeaways

Utilize options data to navigate market volatility like a pro 📊
Swing trading models help predict and manage market shifts effectively 📈
Daily routines in data analysis are crucial for trading success 🔄
Volatility insights are key to understanding market conditions 🌪️
Leverage Fibonacci levels when traditional data is absent 🔢

Overview

During the session, MenthorQ experts discuss tactics for leveraging options data in the midst of a significant market sell-off. They unravel how traders can utilize Gamma and Delta shifts to see upcoming changes in market trends, emphasizing the unpredictability of market catalysts but highlighting tools that aid in preparation and reaction.

The discussion pivots around the importance of volatility indices and daily analysis routines. By examining tools like swing trading models, participants are guided on how to secure insights into future price movements. The session reveals the significant role of reading shifts in volatility metrics to provide clear trade signals.

Trading insights shared revolve around using Fibonacci for mapping price targets during volatile periods. In scenarios without clear data indicators, Fibonacci becomes a critical tool in identifying potential market targets and risk management, offering a practical approach for traders facing uncertain market grounds.

Chapters

00:00 - 01:30: Introduction and Setup The chapter begins with the presenter greeting the audience, acknowledging different time zones around the world. They ask participants to confirm if they can hear the audio and view the screen clearly by posting a comment. The session promises to share valuable information related to leveraging data.
01:30 - 04:00: Analyzing Market Data The chapter begins with a brief disclaimer before diving into the core subject matter, which is analyzing market data.
04:00 - 07:30: Gamma and Delta Explained In this chapter titled 'Gamma and Delta Explained', the team, including Patrick, Doc, and Punk, discuss various trading strategies. They focus on how to handle market conditions like a significant sell-off that occurred yesterday. The market futures were down by 5% in premarket, although there was a slight recovery afterward. Despite a somewhat positive outlook today, the chapter focuses on demonstrating how to utilize provided data sets effectively.
07:30 - 10:30: Swing Trading Model This chapter covers a comprehensive approach to preparing for unpredictable market days, taking insights from various trading perspectives. Initially, it emphasizes the significance of analyzing data to gauge market behavior, which is a crucial aspect for swing traders. Subsequently, experts like Doc and Punk offer strategies tailored for option sellers to navigate volatile conditions effectively. Furthermore, the chapter explores scalping techniques through roadmaps and strategic plans designed to enhance decision-making in real-time market scenarios. The narrative promises to equip swing and directional traders with the knowledge to adeptly handle days like the one recently experienced, ensuring preparedness across different trading strategies.
10:30 - 15:00: Volatility and VIX Analysis The chapter focuses on the challenges of predicting future market behaviors, particularly on a daily basis. It highlights the importance of using available data to comprehend shifts in the market. The approach involves analyzing charts and models, beginning with reviewing past data, specifically using a dashboard referred to as the 'Matrix' and examining SPX data.
15:00 - 20:00: Q&A Session - Strategies and Predictions The chapter titled 'Q&A Session - Strategies and Predictions' discusses how to interpret the market positioning through option chains. The segment explains the significance of green bars in a market analysis, indicating that when you observe green, it suggests positivity in the market's positions at that particular time. Specifically, the chapter looks at data from a few days ago, highlighting the importance of green total exposure as an indicator of positive market conditions.
20:00 - 25:00: Live Trading Setup and Analysis This chapter, titled 'Live Trading Setup and Analysis,' deals with various aspects of analyzing trading scenarios. It discusses concepts such as gamma and delta, which are essential measures in trading, and how changes in them can affect the market. The text mentions comparing them with previous days to gauge market sentiment or changes. It mentions specific dates to contextualize the concept, like using data from July 31st to make assessments for August 1st. The chapter emphasizes the importance of understanding these financial metrics and adjusting trading strategies accordingly.
25:00 - 30:00: Recap and Closing Remarks At the beginning of August, the situation changed markedly from just a few days before. Whereas before things were more positive, there is now a strong negative trend that has emerged. Despite this shift, the Gamma Delta remains positive. The shifts in the statistics are evident, showing a day-to-day significant change in dynamics.

Options Data during Market Sell Off Transcription

00:00 - 00:30 morning guys uh good afternoon for uh those in Europe um let me know if you can uh hear us and see our screen please post a comment here uh today is going to be a very good one uh we're gonna share a lot of information on how to leverage the data but yes before we do that please let us know if you can hear
00:30 - 01:00 us yeah great so let's start with a very short disclaimer just a few seconds and then we'll get started all right so today we have uh
01:00 - 01:30 our team here we have Patrick we have Doc and punk so we have different uh type of trading strategies here so we're gonna go over how to handle a day like yesterday so yesterday we saw a big sell off in the market uh the Futures were down 5% in premarket and then the kind of Market bounced a little bit back and today seems like to be positive so what we're going to do today is we're going to show you how to leverage some of the data sets that we provide to be a able
01:30 - 02:00 to prepare yourself for a day like yesterday and then we're going to pass it on to Doc and punk that are going to show you from an option seller perspective how can you manage the day like yesterday what type of information you look at and then we're going to look at from a scalping perspective by looking at road map and strategy on how you can prepare yourself uh for a day like yesterday if you are sculping or if you a directional Trader but let's start basically looking at the data so first of all you know can can you predict the
02:00 - 02:30 future can you predict like a day the answer is clearly no but how can you use the data to kind of like understand hey why is there shift in the market what's going on there so let's look at some of our charts some of our models right the first step we want to do is let's look at the data from a few days ago so we start with the with the Matrix and we open up the SPX data so the Matrix is essentially uh dashboard that will look
02:30 - 03:00 at all the option chain and we show you how the market kind of like is position on any given day so if we look at the 31st so a few days ago you see a lot of uh green bars here let me open it up so the first thing you want to look at is the top here you want to see the total exposure uh whenever you see green it means that uh ja and Dex is positive so whenever you see a green total exposure it means that we we are in positive
03:00 - 03:30 gamma uh we're going to explain that in a second what that means and how you can prepare for that uh you also want to look at the different kind of like uh data so how did the Jack change over one day and the deck so we see an increase in positive gamma compared to the previous day as well as increasing positive gamma positive Delta compared to the prev so overall this was the 31st right so what I here I went into the Matrix I went back to July 31st but let's back to the 1 of August so the
03:30 - 04:00 first of August we see a completely different picture so like few days ago uh we see like uh now we are a strong negative Jack so from one day to the other one we see like a complete shift in the Gamma Delta still positive then you can see basically how the the decks change over one day and the deck change as well so we see the shift there then
04:00 - 04:30 we can also go to the next day and see how that Chang too we go a second right so let's go back and see here so now we are very like these value is actually going down again uh you can see um how the different expiration are in negative or positive you can see the levels here as well uh then we can look at other things so let's go to our
04:30 - 05:00 swing trading model right so let's open it up and let's combine a few data sets so let's go back to the 31st so uh for those who are not familiar basically the spring trading model was introduced at the the middle of July and essentially what the the model is giving you is uh a price volatility band for the next five days also gives you a directional bias whenever you see a green lower band here
05:00 - 05:30 we are actually bullish bias by looking at different algorithms like Gamma Delta and other option Matrix as well as momentum so on the 31st we see that the lower band is 5,400 then we have a RIS trigger of 5,628 with the bullish directional buyas but then we move to the to the first and then suddenly the picture kind of change so we see that the now we have an upper band with a red line which is a shift in
05:30 - 06:00 bullish and bearish buyas right so now we're seeing the beish buyers there uh we are also basically uh we're also basically looking at the the second of August here and we see kind of like the same story so we're still in a bearish bias and then we can move to to the third and we see basically now we are uh again uh the RIS trigger moved down all the way below 5,000
06:00 - 06:30 uh another thing we can do is we can look at the skew uh the skew is our risk reversal skew so he's looking at the volatility of the 25 Delta cause and the 25 Delta puts uh so obviously we want to measure uh the spike in volatility meaning that the puts are becoming more expensive so that means that the market is buying more puts than calls uh for the 25 Delta so out of the money puts so as you can see here if we go back to the
06:30 - 07:00 first we see kind of like uh a shift towards kind of more the cold side here but then if we go back to the second we see a increased spike in put volatility at the 25 Delta so out of the money put are actually becoming more expensive than out of the money C so the market is kind of like really starting to protects um on those on those out of the money pods uh the next thing we want to look at is the main chart and and uh this is
07:00 - 07:30 a very very important tool um that we can leverage so first of all the main chart shows you at the top side the levels so core resistance put support uh in the middle section we see the uh implied volatility so we see also that there is an increase in implied volatility versus historical volatility we also see the IV rank here but the the very important part is this lower part of the chart so let's go and let's look at it in more details so here here what we see is the historical net gamma
07:30 - 08:00 exposure and the historical net Delta exposure then we see the forward looking um net the gamma exposure and the forward looking net Delta exposure for the expirations in the future so whenever we see kind of like this going below zero you can see how kind of like that kind of like predicts kind of like a down move so whenever the the deck the Jacks and The Deck start to shift towards the downside we see also that
08:00 - 08:30 the price start kind of falling so again this is another good uh metric that you can use to understand uh how the market kind of like is positioned itself and what's going on there um so I'll pause there and I'll let's see if we have some questions and then I'm gonna pass it back to you Doc and punk to see uh how you are looking at that and how you kind of position
08:30 - 09:00 I have a question for you Fabio if we have no questions from uh our community not yet all right so um can you tell us some easy steps so people always loving routines so you was you was going too um many steps uh to show us how we can read this and how we can predict this but for daily routine where
09:00 - 09:30 we can have maybe less than two minutes what you would say uh what we should do what would should step one step two step three only simple three steps um so that we can that we can look in what was happened in the past what has happened now that we get a clear picture that we get only a feeling so remember so for us it's really important and I think for every Trader to get a feeling for the market what's going on in the market especially when you came maybe now from holidays we have summer you was in holidays two weeks you have no idea
09:30 - 10:00 what's going on to go easily uh in our in our board and and get really fast some overview what's going on yeah that's actually excellent question Patrick thank you so the first step I would say that if we go to the to the bot here and we go on the left hand side and let's look at the SPX for example uh so in on the left hand side obviously you guys can use the bot but we also have channels that autop populate every day with data and uh the order of the
10:00 - 10:30 data is actually intentional so we don't just post charts but we actually post it in a way that you can use it to follow a routine exactly like what you were saying Patrick so the first step when I log into the morning is I would look at okay let's look at the data let's start from the SPX we can also do it on stocks and Futures but essentially what you want to see is a snapshot okay this is like liquidity snapshot so what what's going on today what's the expected move for
10:30 - 11:00 the day are we in positive or negative gamma right so condition of gamma this is uh going back August 1 uh is the momentum bullish or bearish this looks at technical analysis moving averages crossovers uh what's the implied volatility versus the historical volatility right what is the IV rank then I want to look at again my main chart the the tool that we showed you to understand okay so how is the historical Jacks what is the market like where is
11:00 - 11:30 there a high like Jacks in the near expiration so like in this case we can see that the market is really like there's a lot of large positive Jacks in that expiration there uh then we want to look at uh information here so this is a table with all the key information so open interest put open interest put core ratios how much Jack is expiring then I can open up my levels so I can go on my trading View and I can actually look at
11:30 - 12:00 my levels here so for the day you can prepare yourself uh looking at what are the levels for the day uh then I can actually look at position so this is very important chart so it's the net gamma exposure for all expirations here so first you want to see okay uh on August 1 we still had a lot of bullish positioning on these strikes here but we started seeing like piling up some bearish positioning here uh your also want to see and Doc is
12:00 - 12:30 going to explain more on maybe this one you also want to look at different expirations right so based on your uh time Horizon so if you're a day trader then you might want to look at zero DTE option but if you more like a swing Trader then you might want to look at hey what's going to happen uh at the end of the month or what's going to happen in the next monthly expiration so you can actually look at these charts too um then you can look at the the Swing model so as we see you know this is the Swing model this was for the 31st so we see like on that day we saw a bullish bias
12:30 - 13:00 there uh we also have a 20-day Swing model there uh The Matrix this is the one that we showed you so again open it up you know read through it look at the different data sets uh look at you know the levels for the expiration and then obviously you can look at more advanced model like volume and open interest um for ZTE you know net Delta so there's a lot of other models that we have uh and then uh obviously the skew the skew is
13:00 - 13:30 very important this tells you is the market buying more cause or put like is the imply volatility of cause and putut increasing and so on so that can give you like an idea of the sentiment and how like you should look at the market and then obviously term structure uh then you can go and go back in time so for example here we see the history we can go back in time and see the past data but we can also do it through the bot so we can go on the bot here and u look at our net Jacks and then scroll
13:30 - 14:00 back and see for example the change in time so as we can see we see a big pile of negative gamma exposure uh in the recent days um a lot of it on the on the first but if we go back to the 31st we see we have a lot of positive gamma there let me know if that answer your question yes I think I think that's good and and for all the people people will will have maybe um not the deep
14:00 - 14:30 understanding about uh what is all this meaning like high volatility implied volatility and all the stuff uh we have a nice uh Library we have also our Academy where we cover many many stuff so I think that's a good a good point to to start the day to look all into this and then I think it's really important go on your shart and and and look on your shart and what what the levels are telling you um yeah good
14:30 - 15:00 point yeah and uh doc like I'll I'll pass it on to you I don't know if you w to share your yeah yeah I have my screen share now actually you see what I you see what I'm screen sharing yeah yeah okay hi okay hi everyone um so and I'm just going to take it from here almost an answer to Patrick's question where I look at at first I look at a couple
15:00 - 15:30 things right away first I look at the multi XPR to get an idea of of the state of the market trust your eye your eye is a good filter you see we're in a sea of red so the bias is downward and you know we kind of already know that now even if you're mostly a day trader I still want to look at the multiple
15:30 - 16:00 xeres think of it as in technical analysis 101 or Price action analysis multi-timeframe analysis the the exposure and the bias out till Friday is going to influence market makers hedging today and so I like to get a picture on all this and we see okay today we have a a bearish buyer we kind of buried in all
16:00 - 16:30 these in the money puts but we're about to with the volatility is changing so this could end up being a Tailwind not a headwind and for that we kind of have these key levels here we see this 51 80ish level yes um then here's all expirations so so we could see if we went back a few days
16:30 - 17:00 like like um Fabio showed us this was all green here then it was almost all red yesterday now we're beginning to try to shift but we have to kind of get over these levels here to to kind of be out of the woods I now I'm going to look at at at the Swing model so I'm an option seller them more than buyer so what I want to
17:00 - 17:30 look at first is where might the safe levels be to sell options and hopefully um you know this is not the time we place to explain option selling other than to say um sell a caller a put where I think the underlying is not going to go so if I were to sell a week out I'd want to sell below 5,000 and above 5400 I'd want to be outside of these
17:30 - 18:00 Rebels okay now I was looking at Vicks today and I'm sure that most of you if not all of you are aware that we had a historic Vick Spike yesterday and along with that historic Vicks drop the amount that Vicks Dro from qu it 55 to 30ish was as historic as the as
18:00 - 18:30 the pop so I want to see where the Vick's inflection point might be and we see we have an inflation Point here at 30 you coming up and if we look at the overall complex of vix we got this level here at 25 so I want to so I first want to see vix get below the 30 level then I want to see a longer term get below 25 um quick explanation of why
18:30 - 19:00 um I'm assuming there's some familiarity with options makers hedging but I'll throw in a quick oversimplified version uh the obvious assumption is that most people are long puts that they Bo puts so if I bought the puts from the the calls rather so if I bought these calls over here from the market maker then the
19:00 - 19:30 market maker sold them so he short Vick's calls at say 30 so as vix goes above that level the market maker has to keep buying vix futures or correlated products SL VX and that buying of the viit product causes volatility to spike and then causes ripples throughout the whole train and so what um what we want
19:30 - 20:00 is for the reverse to happen if you're a bull if you're a bear then you want to see it you know keep going up but if you want market conditions to at least calm down a little bit we want to see vixs first things first get below this 30 level because remember market makers board vixs to hedge this as we come down below it they get to sell that vix and that's why we get these crazy spikes like we got yesterday okay so there's the vix complex okay so
20:00 - 20:30 here I'm looking at that same Matrix that uh Fabio was showing before and again trust your eyes your eyes are a good filter you see that we're in a sea of red but remember a week ago we were in a sea of green when the boat is tilted too far to one side or another get ready for it to turn sometimes slowly sometimes quickly a
20:30 - 21:00 couple about a month ago we had iwm under a sea of red then we flipped for a few days and now we got to a sea of green so whenever the gamma profile and the Delta profile and the and the um customer positioning and speculation gets two buyers to one side get ready for for that that kind of tell when we might be flipping just like
21:00 - 21:30 Fabio showed us on 7:31 we still had the monthly options expirations things were still bullish it looked bullish then on Monday on August 1 rather on that whatever that next expiration was we saw a shift in bias warning us that this might be coming up so I'm just looking here and basically we see buried in puts and here we get to
21:30 - 22:00 see the levels so 5200 we see is a strong level um 5350 okay here's the same skew that uh Fabio was showing and and just is showing that the demand that the price of options is expensive now remember volatility goes both ways so calls are overpriced as well which is why It's Tricky if you want to
22:00 - 22:30 take a bullish bias with options you're kind of overpaying for the calls so you could be right on the direction but not get the move that you would like as opposed to way Patrick does it with Futures and you're basically you a one Delta so you know you're G to get whatever it is on SPX 50 bucks a point and you don't have to kind of do those mental gymnastics
22:30 - 23:00 uh the term structure you can see that we're that we're in vation so near term near-term volatility uh Traders are expecting you know volatility and you know maybe downside to keep up but within a few days the volatility is is flattening out but we're still not in a normal shape down here this light blue line is kind of a more normal distribution more normal cangle where
23:00 - 23:30 further out options are more you know volatility is more expensive than short-term volatility which makes sense over the next month I would expect more of a move then over the next day and I think if I can add the doc if you go back to that chart that sh you to compare basically the term structure of yesterday uh or today with the latest
23:30 - 24:00 data compared to the previous day the previous five days and the previous month so you see how like that kind of shifted up like quite dramatically over the past day yeah so one month ago we were kind of normal five days ago and yesterday we see this shift whenever you see this um kink in the volatility curve that means there's more in the term structure that means there's more you know there's more volatility more
24:00 - 24:30 puts more people placing bets that something's going to happen there that there's you know I don't know what date this is but I'm gonna guess this might be CPI day where this we where we see this little Kink here you know that would kind of check my calendar and it just makes sense to know where these days are um now I'm just G to do a quick look at what's going on on the chart today and fabiio if could maybe share the screen where I put
24:30 - 25:00 in my little morning note and I also post it on Twitter and I keep on playing with the format um I'm the typo King so I I run it through Chad GPT to organize it and to get rid of the typos otherwise it's kind of a total mess um yeah so let let me share like this is kind of like docs daily note here uh so it's posted in the trading room uh this is kind of like how it looks like and then obviously you share
25:00 - 25:30 a lot of charts and you know information based on the data so here and then typically we do this every day in the Discord Channel where we go over levels and kind of talk about what we might expect and Patrick does one at 6:00 a. in the real world at whatever time it is over there in Europe that was a joke you're all supposed to laugh um and so we you have two different approaches at two different times in the
25:30 - 26:00 Discord and so key levels for today are identified right here so as an options premium seller today is kind of a great day because with volatility is so high we can get way below some of these key levels and what these key levels are based on is based on the open interest at those levels and if market makers are long and short those calls and the expected hedging response big Aster
26:00 - 26:30 caveat that market makers are basically net short gamma which means in general they're going to be taking liquidity not providing liquidity therefore moves are going to be wider hedging responses are going to be more stream so you have to kind of put an aster on that and the the zero DTE forget the put support
26:30 - 27:00 level I was talking to fabiio about why it's labeled that way and it's backend stuff that's that's a large put level so that's the level that we need to get over or that we should stall at as we approach that level and then we have this uh Max move at 5270 and we have this uh this this minimum move so you see the ranges are wide
27:00 - 27:30 today because volatility is so high and then um you know on days like today of course we want to look at what the max S names are doing so we have uh Apple kind of in the middle of its range we have puts over here at 50 at 210 so Apple needs to get over 210 to be able to kind of get some movement we kind of tried to get over we got to this high
27:30 - 28:00 volume level and kind of stalled out yesterday so kind of have these key levels and the mag S names in the back of your mind obviously you could trade them if you want or just how they may affect the overall complex um Nvidia everybody's uh favorite stock 100's been a key level and we mentioned in the Discord over the
28:00 - 28:30 weekend and last week that um I I didn't prepare the chart that there's open interest at the spa at the uh Nvidia 100 call strike in September at least it was a few days ago so that's going to be an important Delta level and we kind you see we undercut it in that crazy movement yesterday but we quickly reverted back to
28:30 - 29:00 it uh one more one more quick word about volatility IV fixed drug V whatever you want to call it and Gamma in general and this is Patrick likes to make it simple I like to make it complicated um when VA when volatility expands the gamma curve flattens what that means is the dealers hling responses are not that sharp and the reason is if
29:00 - 29:30 I can sort of explain it by giving a hyperbolic extreme example if volatility is infinity then any option might expire in the money if volatility is zero then we're not going to move at all and so the pro the probabilities change as volatility in increases changing the Deltas and
29:30 - 30:00 making it and resulting in that flattening of the curve I'm not sure if that makes sense it makes sense to me um and you know we discuss that kind of stuff in the in the Discord and provide resources either stuff that I pull up or I find you know other places you know uh on the shoulders of giants a for Miles you know I didn't invent this stuff I
30:00 - 30:30 you know go to a lot of resources and kind of you know find stuff that I find I think is useful I guess now it's time for me to stop and pass it back to you Fabio to pass it back to Patrick unless I have questions in there yeah thank you thank you so much Doc and uh so I think um again Doc and punk are part of our trading room here so you can uh follow it uh under structuring and IC Haven
30:30 - 31:00 which is really premium selling and iron Condor uh so mostly like option selling uh we then have a future trading room which is more like Focus for directional trades I'll pass it back to you Patrick to kind of share uh how you would go ahead and prepare for a day like yesterday uh being a scalper or future uh kind of like uh Trader okay yeah before we do this um please all me um talk um to ask you a question because we
31:00 - 31:30 was not asking if someone have questions and I'm 100% sure we have some questions if not um let me speak for the community and I have also a questions for faru um so let me know if someone have some questions for dog um otherwise I will ask my questions uh for you community there's one question I don't know you want to take it Patrick you want to take it should we
31:30 - 32:00 expect to see large moves at these levels okay well when you say these levels I'm not sure which levels you mean uh but what I what I will say is I think of the larger levels as key inflection points as key points where we're going to stall think of it as res as support or resistance we will have a larger reaction if we break them or stalk and that's where if you're day trading
32:00 - 32:30 or scalping or whatever that's those are your reaction zones that you're looking for so that okay great all right so my questions for you um Doc and Fa ni think um this is something what what what really important so uh what do you was
32:30 - 33:00 learning from yesterday doc um if you if you was recap today at the end of the day um and and what was in your mind what was you learning what you was maybe not seeing where you should be in the future looking much more deeper into it um take us in your mind so that uh we can we can have something from your learning from yesterday okay so from yesterday what I was looking at for first and foremost was what was happening to vix I want to
33:00 - 33:30 see what's going on with volatility and how that's going to how that's affecting the overall structure yesterday was not a typical day so you you know youall have to look at it quite that closely and so when I saw that big Vicks drop from wherever it was you know from wherever we opened at 55 we quickly receded to like 45 or 42 whatever it is once I saw vigs dropping
33:30 - 34:00 volatility dropping I knew that those options Deltas are going to change and the market makers are going to have to start buying so then I'm going to look for I always look at the volume where's the volume coming in and looking for where those next big level targets were so 4250 was a big level yesterday I think it was for yeah 5250 rather and we kind
34:00 - 34:30 of went right up toward it we kind of right right up toward that level and we kind of got slammed down so on a day like yesterday I'm expecting these wide moves and looking for just where the big levels are to get these strong responses good one did that answer your question yeah good one I think I think it's important um to understand for everyone that most of the Traders or let's let's talk about professional
34:30 - 35:00 Traders we're looking always to the wigs no matter if you're trading futures or if you trade options the wigs is something that's really important for us and this is something what I can also say I'm looking all the day long to the wig a second confirmation and it's really important for us how the wig is working and yeah doc you confirm this it's perfect yeah and now yesterday was an atypical day because you know you saw when I did the uh review of like the vix complex today we
35:00 - 35:30 have some clearer levels we know 30 we know 25 going out in time we have something to look at yesterday the vix was so nuts that there wasn't even a clear level to look at 45 50 it just you know that happen sometime so day like yesterday you just look at the overall pattern there's not even an inflection point level you know Patrick and I Although our approaches are different we
35:30 - 36:00 look at reaction zones or blind spots or levels where we expect something to happen and yesterday with vigs there was really no level of just where is it going and what is it doing all right I think we have one two other questions but we can we can do at the end and and Q&A for general questions um let's go um to the next one for you what do you think yeah did you
36:00 - 36:30 have any question for me Patrick or yeah the the question goes also for you uh you are the one who have a deep knowledge of the levels what was the main thing for you where you was wondering about the market so what do you was thinking man why we was not seeing this or was this something what you say I was seeing this really clearly or do you was something expected what you can can share with us yeah so I think obviously you know
36:30 - 37:00 nobody can predict like an event like a catalyst event like yesterday right so you can there's no model in the world that can tell you okay the market is going to drop 5% but by looking at the data as we showed you before like those flip points like those changing from positive to negative gamma those are always sign of hey maybe something is happening here so like it's a way of hey maybe I should really pay attention to what the data is telling me so I think
37:00 - 37:30 it's very important that you know within your daily routine you look at you know the data you look at how things are changing you look at the position so we made it kind of like very as doc was saying like very clear like green and red right so if we use our eyes we can see very quickly how things are changing uh over time so that can tell you like oh hold on why is the picture very different from yesterday what is going on today and then you can kind of like right deep down and see okay let's look at all the other data points that you
37:30 - 38:00 guys give me let's look at the metrix let's look at the skew uh let's look at you know how the levels have changed so always look for example how the main level are shifting right so if we look at um the let's go back to the 31st right so we see a core resistance of 5,750 and a put support of 5,300 uh you want to see if these level are shifting down so like you want to see okay okay like uh is there like a
38:00 - 38:30 shift in these levels and so on so as you can see you know we see like a lot of the CES were closed you know we don't see a lot of green bars compared to the day before uh so looking at that is very important I think and then uh yeah that can give you like a like an overall picture of what can happen and then obviously nobody can predict uh what can happen during the day but you know again those level can act like as a support tool for you guys let me quickly enter ja I was looking at yesterday's chart uh
38:30 - 39:00 experiencing a little PTSD and I was kind of remembering what happened yesterday and I don't know if this is really showing it clearly enough but yesterday we open near that 5100 level big round number uh we we undercut it in the pre-market I think and then we opened up right near that round number 5120 I think we opened so right away the first thing I'm thinking is what's the
39:00 - 39:30 reaction going to be toward this big round number of 5100 and it seemed to hold we pretty almost immediately shot up to 5150 the next round number volatility is coming in market makers had to hedge that extreme volatility by selling a lot of Futures because the Deltas of those puts say the 5100s that were a 10 Delta when uh when
39:30 - 40:00 they uh when they sold them to people are now a 50 Delta or a 40 Delta so there's a lot of hedging as soon as the vix comes in volatility comes in they have to start buying and then we kind of pretty much went level to level up through the round numberers 5180 which I identified as a level for today CU at 80 75 level has been a level in this recent
40:00 - 40:30 uh selloff and then we kind of you see we went right up to these main levels here 5250 yesterday where we got rejected and so so I'm just looking back at yesterday's chart and reminding myself of of where the action was and then we kind of stalled around 5200 5220 another key level and got rejected from there sorry but uh check your DMs real quick okay
40:30 - 41:00 yeah sorry if I can add doc those levels were also here so the 5180 that you mentioned you see a big red bar here and then we have the 5150 down here as well yep yep yeah I think that's a that's a good one so if if we if you be um an beginner
41:00 - 41:30 Trader or or you trading now for for a few years um but but you struggle with become consistently profitable um but the wording consistently profitable is really hard so what is consistently profitable we will not speak about this today but the learning what was Fabio and Doc was sharing is really really important so Fabio was saying looking for the flipping so when the price is flipping from the past to now doc was saying simply looking to the
41:30 - 42:00 wigs what's going on with the wigs so if you looking for this I think uh we can we can prepare not the future but we can think about what could be happened and if I go now um to the shart how I'm using the levels how I'm using the blind spots then based on this what fabiio was talking to you and what was dog talking to you will be become much more easy to understand what I'm doing um and now um
42:00 - 42:30 if you be okay Fabu I will be um start with um the presentation yeah I just want to say I gotta I gotta take off guys everybody will see you in the channels and uh we'll be the channels later thanks guys thank you see you later all right let me know when you see my screen yeah uh I will make it as big as possible for
42:30 - 43:00 you guys so basically what I was doing I was re replicate um the day from yesterday so today it's not the levels from today we see the levels the gamma levels and the blind spots from yesterday to become really closed off so technical what was happened yesterday when we get the down move we was below the one day minimum but lucky enough really lucky enough we have blind spots
43:00 - 43:30 in play yesterday who was um doing a really nice job to guide us um TR the market so we can see that the blind spot 6 was holding the blind spot 5 BL average but but this is something what what I'm like to see that the blind spots so blind spots is we're looking for high correlation um because of the es so this is something what the blind spots telling us where we have high uh
43:30 - 44:00 correlation High overlapping and then when we have something like this so we can say Technical and this is what I was doing I was saying based on the level so I'm looking only on the shart only on the levels and not on what was Fu doing Technical and dog I was saying okay let's make it funny let's let's thr a Fibonacci from the one day Min based on the options gamma levels and the last blind spot on the downside to map out
44:00 - 44:30 what could be possible happened if we get a crazy down move and look at this so I have only on my Fibonacci uh the settings 0.5 0.38 0.62 why I have this because no matter what if I'm drawing this from the top to the bottom or from the bottom to the top I have always the same price levels to make it as simple as possible and if I will map out now the Fibonacci area from
44:30 - 45:00 the 0.62 what we can see on my chart to the 0.38 it will become really magic for you and you can see I was predict a little bit the down move and we was in this area and this is something what I will do if we have no levels no data or something else um in this area so what I will give you as information if you have
45:00 - 45:30 no levels on your shart or no blind spots on your shot or nothing else so you can use your Fibonacci um to predict some areas what could be happened so this is only for the es the es was yesterday to say it really clear the blind spots was working very well on the es but let's take a look on yesterday what was happened on the NQ it was not so easy because we have no levels so here yesterday it was a little bit
45:30 - 46:00 harder but what we doing so here are the levels from yesterday exactly um what was happened so we was we was also going down from the one day minimum after the put support we have no more levels so technically what we can do and I'm doing always the same I say to myself drawing the Fibonacci from put support to the last blind spots level so we have bl7 here we go so this could be some
46:00 - 46:30 area where we can have possible uh some some Target where the stop where the down move can be end but if I see that this will be not happen so we get this before so then I have a nice and and a good point to predict some something different now I can say okay let's draw the Fibonacci from put support to this area and look at this what I can map out
46:30 - 47:00 now for a price area so basically what I will I will show you here is so if you have no levels on your shart so you can do this with with simple and easy steps you can draw your Fibonacci uh use your levels what you have from mentor Q use your blind spots and find the way where we can possible stop no matter if we on the on the down move or if you're on the up move um you have something don't tell
47:00 - 47:30 that you don't see something because you have no levels you have levels but you have to map this out and now let's go to Nvidia the same same stuff yesterday lucky enough we have also the levels from yesterday the blind spots levels from uh yesterday and the Nvidia levels from yesterday why I say we have the blind spot levels from yesterday today so what I was technically doing I was using our
47:30 - 48:00 Mentor Q levels premium indicator uh where we have the option to convert everything what we want so we can basically say I want convert from NQ like here to Nvidia and then check mark this but I will take it off because I was doing this on the other side and then I will get the blind spots from the NQ on my
48:00 - 48:30 Nvidia shot and if he was looking to this how magic this was working you you you will freak out so we have here the bl7 from the nastic and where we was open and get the crazy move from Nvidia it was on bl7 so we go from bl7 straight to the one day minimum and the rest is history what we can also say is like we can say
48:30 - 49:00 let's take a look let's let's drive in Fibonacci from put support to bl7 to get some some our areas what we can be technically say where we be safe or where we can have the next down move so and we are here so it's crazy if you have no levels or if you have the blind spot or levels are far away from each other you the Fibonacci um to map out your areas where you really like and you
49:00 - 49:30 you will find no more uh blind and this is something what I want share with you especially on days like yesterday it's possible to find entry points Target points where we can possible stop and yeah use your data so we make it as simple as possible from men to Q for you um to to have all data available but you have to use it and that's the key fab
49:30 - 50:00 you what do you think I'm Al done that was that was an awesome example because yeah again uh when there is no data there is data there is tools that you can use to to find the data of the the Insight that you need and also uh the community is here to help you as well so there was a lot of uh chats going on yesterday in the chat room so please you know like use that as well as your tools yes um maybe we can uh yeah we can do
50:00 - 50:30 some Q&A uh I can answer some of these questions um so a good question from Strada johnes um what skew model do you have and what are the expirations so if we go back to the bot we have three expirations for skew uh if you type in the command skew you have uh the normal skew which is the one month and you can read it here you
50:30 - 51:00 have the three months and then you have the next expiration so for next expiration uh if you are trading uh SPX or QQQ that would be the zero DT SK if you're trading Nvidia or any stocks that would be the next weekly expiration so uh yeah you can use those three uh expiration there as well um and also there's from Joel Ren stock a
51:00 - 51:30 question I can answer this in general um it's like oh yeah all right uh when you are trading Futures how much room do you give your trade uh of ticks of points for NQ and Es um so basically uh let's talk about in general it's all about your personal risk management it's all about your Capital if you have for example 1 million under assessed because for example like me I'm an Institutional Trader so I can risk many many points
51:30 - 52:00 why I can do this I can say I trade only one single contract and I can easily risk uh 50 points 100 points but if you are in retail Trader and you have not so much Capital like institutional of course or you you you're trading for a propm and you have different uh risk management rules you must think first okay what you can do basically based on your Capital so and and you must first
52:00 - 52:30 looking in areas what areas you have really interesting in so basically you say okay I won't go for 50 points but my stop loss could be possible um 30 points below 30 points could be a really big could really hurt you then you have to think about okay what can I do to realize the trade maybe should should I switch from basically NQ to M andq to
52:30 - 53:00 have less contracts less risk on my trades and should I be average in and average out if something is not working so there's no general rule it's really based on your capital and based on your strategy um and this is something what I can say in general to you it's all about your risk management uh your capital and depend on what you target on your risk uh on your risk side where you want to be place your stop and what you want
53:00 - 53:30 Target uh for take profit yeah yeah that's very useful all right um let me uh guys please share any questions here in the comment um there is uh there is one question from M so let's uh yeah that's a good
53:30 - 54:00 one Let's uh look at the 5 day and 20day model so as we showed before uh as of July 16 we kind of like released a swing trading model and the goal of the Swing trading model is to give you an idea of where the price uh would go at the five day and 20 days and five days is one week in the future 20 days is one month in the future so the goal is really to give you a volatility band that could help you first
54:00 - 54:30 understand where you can make money but also understand where you should really get out uh so as a risk management tool but then also give you like a potential direction of the of the model so if we look at uh for example in this case um let's look at for example uh one that we did last week right uh so this was uh Intel a few days ago um I think this one was the day of earnings um and then
54:30 - 55:00 again the Swing model is providing you with some an upper band or a lower band and a risk trigger those are levels that are similar to one day expected move they go in the future so five days or 20 days in the future so um here was the level uh for INTC for uh the the August 1 and the upper band was 31 the the restri was 27 uh we then added a bullish or bearish bias by looking at different
55:00 - 55:30 data sets since we look at options data we look at momentum and we look at other kind of like algorithms that go be within the model so essentially we try to make it as easy as possible so whenever you see a red band or a red price there's a bearish bias whenever you see a green price or a green level then there's a bullish bias so in this case for example Intel really bad earning the next day I think the price drop over 20% uh this is an example on now you can use the data if we look at for
55:30 - 56:00 example um the model on Nvidia and we look at 20 days uh this would be the lower price so 78 would be our lower band and the fact that it's green is showing you that we still have a bullish buyas based on the model on that stock I hope that makes it clear yeah that was a good point and Matias have also a great question I can go to Nvidia again because yesterday
56:00 - 56:30 I was trading personally Nvidia uh could you please give some examples how you could trade the map out areas trade setups how do you use the center line of maap out areas okay so um I will do it uh really quick again so we will have very very soon in the mentor Q room a live trading uh session where be talking about all the stuff but let's talk about um the basic things and I will show my
56:30 - 57:00 monitor again here we go let me know if you can see it yeah okay perfect so again so to to say okay what strategy we can have so technical what we was doing we was mapping out our Fibonacci so and I like to map out and this is something what I'm doing in in the morning Club to map
57:00 - 57:30 out uh between the areas if I see something is in the play like here I will map up between the one day minimum the bl7 take out um the Fibonacci also here from the BL support to the one day minimum because I want fill the Gap with sorry I w't fill the Gap with a Fibonacci every time when I have a big Gap I fill this with the Fibonacci and I show you in a
57:30 - 58:00 little second why I will do this because then we go to a lower time frame I scan here again from bl9 to put support and look at this what we was mapping out it's perfect here we go so now you see what we was mapping out and if you say on the middle line what is the middle line for people uh who don't know I'm using Reet Tangles and I activate the middle line the middle line is the 50% area and as you can see on the 50 minute
58:00 - 58:30 time frame on the middle line we was rejected with the with the candle wig so basically what this could be this could be for me and sign okay now it's looking for a nice short opportunity so only like this so if we look into the middle line but I'm not trading the 15 minutes so for this um I'm I'm trading the one minute time frame okay let's go to the one day uh one
58:30 - 59:00 minute time frame from yesterday so that we can see what was happened so we we were starting uh from from bl7 so and this is now only in recap so if you be in the live trading uh we were going through this very very live but what we can see when we was speaking about the middle line my friend we were seeing okay we was holding here the middle line and we was rejecting here from the middle line so technical I see now here on this case
59:00 - 59:30 that the middle line was accepted from the market and the middle line was accepted from from the market here let's zoom in a little bit bigger um and then we can say okay basically on our technical strategy what we really like as a day trader or something like this if we see that we was rejecting here where we can go in again where we can place our short to take some little points out of the
59:30 - 60:00 market so and what we can Target so if we say we was we was uh rejected on the middle line so based on our road map what we was having here we have here our next Target area so technically if we use our short we can Target this area and can say okay for a stop loss where we can place our stop loss if the trade goes completely wrong so make this right that you can see it much better so we
60:00 - 60:30 can say we can place our stop loss a boo this area so then we was saying okay from 120 I don't know let's say from 100 220 to 10320 we risk one point to technical can make much more we hav risky W easily from one to two maybe from 1 to three so it's this would with some plan for me and this is something what I was doing
60:30 - 61:00 yesterday so I was trading like this and I hope um this helps you and and this gives you a little bit uh more idea what I'm doing and also if you want to see the levels so you can say here we go here we have the levels again um but we are now far away so this is why the levels are not showing here but technical this is what I'm doing and it's based on the Fibonacci it was based on what I was mapping out for
61:00 - 61:30 you and yeah that's it simple and useful thank you so much Patrick so I think uh I think yeah this was a great session so uh lot of questions if you guys uh have any questions please uh follow us uh you can also reach out to us via email um and you know please um let us know if we can help but thank you so much for the session and please reach out and again thank you Patrick thank you doc thank
61:30 - 62:00 you punk uh for taking part of it and we see you back in the Discord and thank you for all of you who was joining us here so many thanks for your time that you will spend time with us um and yeah so let me say last words to all of you if you was liking this WR some comments uh on YouTube share this on Twitter share this in the community how you was liking this give us some feedback if you if this was useful useful for you we
62:00 - 62:30 have the member success area write something down if if you was taking out some notes today from this so that other people can also take out something who was not able to join us now and if you have questions make sure that you send us the questions if you want more about how to mapping out on stocks like Nvidia or Tesla Apple whatever you want join the 6 a.m. morning club we will do this regular and now let's came to the end and thank you to all of you time thank you thank
62:30 - 63:00 you guys byebye