Singapore Banks: Is It Time to Take Profit?

Summary

Highlights

• DBS outperformed with an impressive 10% increase in total income, standing strong amidst its competitors. 🏦
• OCBC's quarterly report fell short, largely due to higher staffing costs and integration expenses. 😩
• DBS and UOB are looking at strategic cost management, employing AI to streamline operations. 💡
• The outlook includes potential interest rate cuts, impacting future net interest margins. 📉
• Capital returns through share buybacks and special dividends are set to benefit investors. 💸
• Non-interest incomes are helping offset slower growth in net interest margins, proving vital. 📈
• Experts recommend a balanced view, considering both dividends and potential market fluctuations. ⚖️

Key Takeaways

• Singapore banks showcased strong annual results, with DBS leading in revenue growth. 📈
• OCBC faced challenges due to increased operational costs, impacting its quarterly results. 🤔
• DBS and OCBC excelled in non-interest income, with significant growth enhancing profitability. 💰
• Despite expected interest rate cuts, banks maintain resilience and promising dividend yields. 💹
• Strategic cost management and AI integration are poised to optimize operations and sustain profit margins. 🤖
• Capital returns, including special dividends and share buybacks, attract investor interest. 💵
• Market conditions and interest rate dynamics are crucial in determining future bank performance. 📊
• Investment strategies should consider both short-term trading opportunities and long-term valuations. 💼

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Singapore Banks Overview The chapter introduces the discussion topic of Singapore Banks, focusing on the recent release of their fiscal annual results. The hosts, Adam and Victor, aim to provide the latest updates and insights into the financial outcomes of these banks, particularly noting that OCBC was the most recent to release its results as of that morning. The discussion is prompted by a high level of interest in the banking sector's performance.
• 00:30 - 05:00: Full Year Results and Analysis of Singapore Banks The chapter discusses the full year financial results and outlook of major Singapore banks, focusing on their appeal for dividend investors. It specifically highlights DBS, OCBC, and UOB. DBS showed the strongest performance with a 10% increase in total income, followed by OCBC at 7%, and UOB at 3%. The analysis underscores DBS as the leading bank in terms of revenue growth.
• 05:00 - 09:00: Fourth Quarter Highlights and OCBC Challenges The chapter explores the financial performance of major banks, focusing on the fourth quarter results and challenges faced by OCBC. DBS emerges as the top performer with profits of 11.2 billion, marking a 12% increase. OCBC shows an 8% rise, while UOB achieves a 6% increase. The discussion highlights OCBC's underperformance in year-to-year comparison with its peers, contributing to a decline in its share price.
• 09:00 - 15:00: Net Interest and Non-Interest Income Trends The chapter 'Net Interest and Non-Interest Income Trends' discusses the performance of various banks in terms of their interest margins and growth rates. It highlights that despite missing estimates, DBSR has increased by 11%, UOB by 9%, and OCBC by 4%. The chapter identifies margin compression as a significant factor impacting the net interest margins of these banks, leading to slower growth, affecting not just OCBC but also DBS and UOB.
• 15:00 - 21:30: Future Outlook for Singapore Banks The chapter examines the future outlook for Singapore's banks. It highlights various changes in operating expenses and revenues among major banks like DBS, UOB, and OCBC. DBS's operating expense increased by 9%, but their revenue grew even more significantly. UOB had a 2% decrease in operating expense. In contrast, OCBC saw a 19% increase in operating expenses, partly due to higher staff costs and increased headcount, which included compensation increments. The broader implications of these financial metrics on the banks' future are considered.
• 21:30 - 29:00: Capital Returns and Dividends This chapter discusses the financial performance of banks in the fourth quarter, focusing on OCBC, which did not meet analysts' forecasts. Despite a good annual performance, OCBC's fourth-quarter results were less impressive compared to two other banks. The discussion points out staff costs and headcount as reasons for this performance, although no specific details or reasons were provided by the management.
• 29:00 - 38:30: Investment Considerations and Risks The chapter discusses various factors influencing investment considerations and associated risks. It notes a significant 19% cost increase attributed to hiring more staff, acquiring a bank, and integration processes. The focus then shifts to analyzing net interest income, a crucial aspect of investment evaluation, alongside net non-interest income. These financial metrics are expected to play a significant role throughout the year's financial outlook.
• 38:30 - 42:30: Conclusion and Call to Action In the conclusion and call to action section, the focus is on the projected financial outcomes for the year 2024. It highlights that while the net interest income is expected to slow down, significant growth has been observed in 2023. For instance, DBS experienced a 5% growth, compared to just 1% for OCBC and no growth for UOB. This trend is attributed to interest rate peaks and subsequent cuts. However, the key takeaway for 2024 is the strong performance of non-interest income accounts, which are expected to drive the overall financial performance.

Singapore Banks: Is It Time to Take Profit? Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 [Music] welcome back everyone my name is Adam rman hello Victor hi everyone thanks for joining us we're all in black today yeah all right so and today we're going to talk about singapur Banks uh and the reason why we're doing this is because all three banks have released their fiscal y annual results uh recently so OCB was the last one and it just came out this morning corre so we wanted to do this fresh off the press and update you what's happening with the banks because um a lot of interest with
• 00:30 - 01:00 Singapore Banks y uh a lot of people like their dividends we like their dividends as well so we want to share with you what's up with the banks the latest results you know and what the Outlook is going to be like so what you just tell us a bit more about all three banks in the yeah so I got a table over here so let's talk about their full year result so the four year result uh DBS uh total income which is their revenue up by 10% uh ocbc is up by 7% U is up by 3% so the DBS is still the best performance right and I think think we can expect
• 01:00 - 01:30 that because they are the firstly the nation bank they have the lowest cost funding as compared to the other uh two Banks so in terms of profit uh DBS do outperform the rest at 11.2 billion and which is about up 12% uh ocbc is about 8% and UOB was 6% and if you talk about the latest uh four quarter year-to-year performance right I think ocbc didn't do as well as the other two Banks which you can see why uh they share price tank uh at this
• 01:30 - 02:00 point of time when we when we recording okay because uh they miss the estimates because if you look at dbsr they up 11% uh UOB is up 9% but uh ocbc is up 4% okay so I went into read into the trans uh sorry the press release and the document I realized that it's because first uh margin compression right so both of not only uh ocbc the other DBS UOB they also affected on the net interest margin slower growth uh because
• 02:00 - 02:30 of the interest rate uh but if you look at DBS operating expense only increased by 9% but they are their reeven their revenue actually increased much more uh UOB increase only decreased 2% in terms of operating expense but ocbc their operating expense increased by 19% okay so that is one of the major cost because they they in they have higher Staff cost they also raise their H count and also add in some uh compensation into it and increment right so that CA the the drop
• 02:30 - 03:00 in terms of the fourth quarter and miss their estimates which a lot of uh I think analyst don't like normal Market don't like that's why the other two banks are up but ocbc are down right now okay so basically all three Banks still seem to be doing pretty well I mean on a year-to-year basis is good but the fourth quarter for ocbc wasn't so good y uh and this didn't do as well as the other two Banks correct correct um but is there any reason did they share I mean you said mentioned staff cost and hit count is there any reason why um ocbc um why did the manag say anything
• 03:00 - 03:30 about why the cost went up so much 19% is a lot yeah uh like I mentioned they they they mention is because of the they hire more people they they raise it account and also I think uh I think they acquired a bank and integration so that the cost all went up for that yeah okay so let's talk back to their net interest income which is the m main thing so we need to talk about the net interest income and net non-interest income so I think it's expected for this whole year I it not the last whole full year of
• 03:30 - 04:00 2024 that the net interest income will actually slow down okay so so you can see from here right uh for the full year result uh DBS net interest income still grow by 5% right uh ocbc is 1% only and UOB is 0% is is that common because the the interest rate pick and they uh there's some rate cuts and all this but uh what comes in very strong for this uh 2024 full year is that the non-interest account is the one that carries the whole
• 04:00 - 04:30 uh profits and everything right so you can see that the non interest income for DPS actually went up by 23% ocbc is 22% whereas the U is the much less is 9% right yeah because I think U they got a lot integration and all this when they brought over the city and the Taiwan and all this right but good news is when the the interest was cut their loan growth came back so you look at the loan growth for this full year 2024 right for TBS was 3% OCB was up 8% so UOB was up 5%
• 04:30 - 05:00 but if you compare back to 2023 right 2023 right the Lan growth for the DBS UOB and ocbc range between 0 to 2% only ocbc long growth is 2% the rest DBS and UOB are L growth is 0% growth so people are boring more because so I think is is like it works both ways I mean interest rates go up Banks can make a higher spread but then fewer people are going to borrow Y and then the other way around
• 05:00 - 05:30 they get more loans corre lower spread but still it kind of balances out yeah so it's sort of like offset and keep the net interest income keep some growth to the net interest income okay and then of course if they have more loans now and if interest rates rise in the future then these this this c yeah but but they're not expecting that right the the the Outlook of the bank is uh if you read the transcript and all this most of the banks they are expecting a two cut and I think most people are expecting two cut in this coming two year 2025 m right so so they
• 05:30 - 06:00 they don't expect uh a big jump even when they they increase the interest rate okay but the DBS the CEO got mentioned that uh based on the two card uh you will affect their net interest income between sub 100 between 50 to 100 million for them okay yeah for the other two uh ocbc transcrip have not read yet because it's not out yet you they didn't mention much about that but they they feel that they can maintain the net interest margin okay but uh the good news is
• 06:00 - 06:30 the Kasa ratio is coming back mhm Casa ratio is your current account and saving account which is the low cost funding for the banks so all these are coming back people are funing the lowc cost funding so with the low cost funding coming back right and they maintaining the top and plus uh the the three banks are talking about cost management also so if you look in terms of uh DBS right they did talk about cost cutting reducing stuff and they they recently announced they're going to cut 4,000 I saw that article that that's a huge
• 06:30 - 07:00 repl by AI so all this cost maintaining will maintain their net interest income uh you also talk about cost cutting right uh in the transcript uh ocbc have not read the transcript but in their press release they talk about managing the cost City okay okay so so I I I think the AI will help them to reduce uh in terms of the number of employee mhm which will become more efficient in their Cost Plus the Kasa ratio is coming up so I think they are able to maintain the net interest margin it will be it
• 07:00 - 07:30 will be flattish but it will be maintained okay but the only thing interesting is that during the Outlook when they talk about the Outlook right uh DBS is the only one that got mentioned that uh um they expect that 2025 the net profit to be below 2024 level due to global minimum tax of 15% so the maybe the profit growth may not be be there for this coming year for DBS so you have to take note about it okay yeah so even um with I mean the US is a
• 07:30 - 08:00 bit messy right now you've been following news so it's so even despite the uncertainty in the US you know potential inflation coming back they still kind of have the Outlook that interest rates are going to cut at least twice this year that's out I mean we don't know it's going to happen that's the I think most people if you you previously they thought going to cut more but because of this inflation they reduce to two Okay but the banks got say these things are Ever Changing one right now they can tell you this but maybe the next fat meeting is going to be so you
• 08:00 - 08:30 never know but it's only based on the current situation yeah because it's very fluid it's it's it's like more than fluid man you say what's happening with Trump in the White House and correct everything is going on in government it's like you don't know what the us is going to do next corre that sort of uncertainty is is uncomfortable Y and interest rate could uh could go I think I read some news recently that the US could like just default not default I mean they just refused to pay pay back loans for some of the for Chinese lenders MH there's like some news article that and that actually happened
• 08:30 - 09:00 of course the reputation of the us as a as a lender is going to go down and interest rat will go up so of course this you don't know these things were actually happened there's so much stuff going on um but you see this will all affect the banks because interest rates are so uh sensitive to interest rates so I think the key thing is to really see whether the banks can survive the next Crisis do they have buffer okay so if you look back at their C1 ratio right okay uh there's a table over here they
• 09:00 - 09:30 ct1 ratio so the three Banks after they they uh they do after they uh how say the full phrase C1 ratio that means they that means after b 40 okay because now they on the transition so the I show you the full phase on so the DBS was going to be 15.1% ocbc is going to be 15.3% UOB is going to be 15.4% okay okay so so this this Tre right 15 plus% right is actually a very good buff compared to a lot of the
• 09:30 - 10:00 global Banks okay right so I think our Singapore Banks first the MS is in terms of calculation they much more conservative and because of the if you have followed through our articles on the banks AGM you have gone through our video you'll know why what the reason why they are returning Capital right now because of the bazer 4 right bazer 4 relax the rule because Singapore banks have been so strict that's why they now got Access Capital after the buzer 4 okay transition so that's why uh all of them they're going to especially OC and U they they did mention that they going
• 10:00 - 10:30 to maintain a 14% uh C1 ratio which they think is enough then the any assess Capital they going to return which they're going to return in the next few years which are going to talk about it later yeah okay so that will come through the form of uh special dividends yes Capital return special dividends and all this okay so I think for income investors who basically love the banks that's that's good news yeah yeah cor right but we also need to note that all this Capital return that they're going to give you the special return right is not permanent okay because right because
• 10:30 - 11:00 every bank they did mention at the back part is that it's is subjected to Market condition and Regulatory approval okay so yes it's now but if suddenly the stock market crash right the economy go into Global crisis they may not pay okay they already put that they disclaimer that they subjected right to to Market that's the thing about investing you never know there's no 100% right you just have to like place your bets according according to
• 11:00 - 11:30 your risk correct what makes sense yeah so right now I I feel that a lot of investors now they when they invest into the banks right now they looking with the regular dividend plus all this special is you're going to have a very high U right but if you are very conservative investors then you you want to look at what's the current regular dividends that is sustainable over the current share price okay right so let's look at the valuations yeah okay so let's talk about dividends first okay so the the good thing about the dividends is that uh DBS
• 11:30 - 12:00 right they are really committed to return Capital so you can see that dividend actually increased by 7 27% okay ocbc only increased 4% it was quite a shocking because they cut the dividends on the second half I I was expect 88 cents regular dividends but they make it 85 Cent but they give a special dividends okay UOB is 180 only grow by 6% so the lowest growth for dividends for this year right for this full year 2024 is actually
• 12:00 - 12:30 ocbc okay but let's talk about Capital return uh so DBS announced about uh five uh 3 billion BuyBacks and plus the two two billion right according to the earning cost transcript right it's about 5 billion right and previously they announced a 3 billion share bu back so in total their Capital returns according to the CEO in the transcript right is 8 billion MH okay for the next few years and ocbc announced 2.5 billion and they give you the special dividends starting
• 12:30 - 13:00 from this full year 2024 the rest of the bank is next year you get it okay I mean this 2025 sorry yeah yeah okay UOB is 2.8 billion so among Capital location UOB Fair the lowest right which is about 2.5 billion I I do hope they can give back more but they just give 2.5 billion okay I think that's also part of the reason why the share price is tank today okay and DBS seems to be the most popular recently among investors because for this reason as well right yeah yeah so they're going to give back 60 cents
• 13:00 - 13:30 15 per quarter for this whole year and the co did mention that uh they they're going to uh for this whole year but they can sustain for the next two years okay but can be payback or they can do share by back so okay but on top of that right uh the co did mention in the transcript that now they got this three billion share by back right but they still got bullet to do another three billion share by back if necessary okay so that means they still still got extra 3 billion not
• 13:30 - 14:00 8 billion but possible 11 billion of capital return right so that is also the reason why DBS is traded at premium right now okay I mean so someone watching this like um you know it looks like the cap the banks can give back more capital in the future possibly uh so we mentioned you how what are the yields of the three Banks now okay so just based on the regular excluding the special we need to be very very conservative right now right DBS is about 4.76% okay ocbc is about
• 14:00 - 14:30 4.91% and UOB is about 4.66% time at a time recording okay so it's they are rather close to 5% in this way you were to see right okay I mean ocbc is the highest right now right because the share price tank I think about 2% when I look at them just now right uh but if you compare them to the the 10 years SGS right is about 2.82% it still makes sense to own the bank as compared to owning the SGS okay bonds
• 14:30 - 15:00 why it's again we need to like Bon baffer say you have to compare with the bonds right now the RIS free bond is 2.82 your this one is much higher it makes more sense to be still be on owning the banks right in terms of opportunity cost and risk okay it's just that a lot of people ask can we still go into the bank right now yeah like I said there's still opportunity to go into the bank right now because it makes more sense to invest in the banks than the bond okay but we must not go going in with a investor mindset I feel we must
• 15:00 - 15:30 go in more of like a a shortterm uh Trader mindset but with uh a exit in mind okay because like like for me I bought my my ocbc at $9 and3 uh $93 right so at my price are if any economic crisis were to happen it may not drop down to my this price right it was but if you bought this price it may drop below your this price or may go
• 15:30 - 16:00 higher and drop below or maybe you break even okay because the risk reward ratio is is not there okay okay it's I mean it's still there but just lower as compared to the time where I bought it okay but it still makes sense to invest in the bank so but you when you buy right you need to um make sure that you have a exit in mind you must look at the valuation of the bank okay the moment the the the U drop close to the SGS MH it makes more sense to switch out of the banks and also look at the banks PB okay
• 16:00 - 16:30 because right now we we all can agree that high inflation is likely to stay mhm which means that interest rate is likely to stay high not low anymore M okay so I think a lot of the banks they are expecting about 3% moving forward so doing this kind of normalized 3% is the banks are doing will do quite well for this just by managing cost and returning capitals so my father-in-law also bought during the co right uh 2020 he got in a very good price that every last years he has been asking me should
• 16:30 - 17:00 I sell OC at $12 so I sell ocvc at $13 $15 told him to wait nowc at $17 plus so he asked me again should you sell right I say you could do a partial divestment if you want to right because I look at the price to book right all the three Banks right I think we do have we do have this charts it seems that is to me is really on the high side but from you perspective it doesn't seems that it's going to it's a time to sell right because of the you know compared with the Singapore Saving Bond I think
• 17:00 - 17:30 Singapore Banks still have a higher U right yeah so because if you were to see uh uh doing especially High interest rate environment or normalized interest rate environment the the bank's Book value tends to price at a much higher price to book because their book is worth something right moving forward right so if you go back to history right doing like normalized interest or higher interest rate right the banks Price to Book tend to trade at doing good times are two times above two times yes
• 17:30 - 18:00 correct yeah and that is usually also Flex a signal that is is slightly more expensive on the high side okay but if you only look at the three Banks right only one Bank hit two times just just hit only which is your DBS right but your ocbc and UOB is slightly around 1.5 and Below right so if you were to based on that theory right actually the ocbc and UOB have tend to have much higher in terms of uh upside in terms of Price to Book okay right but of course it also
• 18:00 - 18:30 why DBS is traded so high is because the their Capital location that they are giving back right so that's why investors like them because they are really giving back Capital to the uh shareholder so I think there's still possible room firstly on the PB side and second is the U still makes sense to own the bank yeah okay so so for Pb charts I think this one what you're seeing is actually live right but um you know next month or few months down the road the PB chart may be updated because Bank uh valuation may have changed so I think you want to have a handy access to this
• 18:30 - 19:00 data live okay and we provide this data on the divid machine uh platform for all our dividend machine member which is still open for registration right now and we go and close this uh by the end of this uh Sunday this Sunday right so this uh PB charts I think we will update once a month at least to give you an idea whether the banks are on the expensive size or on the uh cheaper side iate first week of the month for the three single Banks Bank each Bank not the group yeah so you get to see the charts of each single Bank the
• 19:00 - 19:30 historical range uh and whether it's above or below its average yeah so every month they will update that yeah and on top that for now Banks I think yes the valuation seems to be on the high highest side of you it still still quite attractive right and I always um know War our members right I mean you don't want to just invest purely based on banks yeah right because bank is also very sensitive to interest rate just like RS and the best way to you know take good care of your Bank investment is to actually hatch it against the r because R prices tend to not do well
• 19:30 - 20:00 during the hybrid environment and Bank prices tend not to do well when the rate actually start to drop and thens and vice versa right so you want to in the case let's say there's a big rate cut tomorrow for whatever reason you were mentioning that U is so uncertain right now right and rate suddenly drop right and obviously Bank prices might get hurtt okay because there might be a margin compression and stuff like that right so by hedging your position on Reit you know re prices tend to benefit when theow lower rate environment the
• 20:00 - 20:30 cost of fing is going to be a lot cheaper yeah and right now is actually a very good time for for you guys to look a uh R because the valuations are alltime low due to the higher rate environment okay and it's also one of the best time for you to pick high quality RS and then you want to really accumulate up all right so for us is now we are just doing you know building up that R investment and obviously you need to know how to pick the right RS MH right yeah so yeah so just take note that if if you were to get into the bank for the position it
• 20:30 - 21:00 should be a small position it should not be big because the risk reward is not there you only go big position when your risk reward is very high yeah and then and if you the data then you can make the decision correct and and and and do go in with if you going with a small position you must have exit price in mind and this exit price will shift according to the bank's uh announcement on the quarterly basis okay so you have to think not about it okay so just a reminder not recognition to buy or sell anything during the banks this is just our opin but of course if you want to know more
• 21:00 - 21:30 about divid machines do check out divid machines.com it's open until the 2nd of March this Sunday after that it's going to close for this year uh and then we're going to talk about it next year so if you want to get in now do go in do go to dm.com and then we're going to basically provide uh the The Price to Book charts for the S Banks and also the reads and the reads as well and we also going to talk about the how you can actually manage your portfolio all right and then build you know your allocation for re for banks and also for the other dividend stock if you're actually planning to build passive income for your retirement all right just to confirm just the we only have The Price
• 21:30 - 22:00 to Book charts for the banks right and the re also yeah all right so we have the charts for the Singapore reads as a whole Malaysian re as a whole so we can kind of tell how the industry is doing yeah whether they are currently cheap or expensive right so right now if you look at the chart right I mean you can just lock into the div machine once you sign up right and you can actually look at the chart and you know that it's actually a cheap okay time to accumulate RS quality RS okay all right so is there anything else that you know you you've learned from you know the the the results over the last the three Banks I
• 22:00 - 22:30 think the bank will still do well this coming year okay yeah just maybe slightly flattish or growing a bit but you'll never know because uh we didn't expect the non interest income to to beef up but last year they they beef up a lot I see the growth a lot on on the non-interest income so that was a additional shock to to investor right so this year I think is it feels like it's just going to be a flattish year or maybe just uh single noow single digit growth but if the non-interest income
• 22:30 - 23:00 start to which you look at the past history they tend to do well on this kind of situations then it may be a extra supplies for us okay but no promise we don't know just guessing on yeah okay so I think um for those who are watching this it sounds like you know some banks are quite like a easy investment just buy it for the Y actually the way you you do it you actually taking a lot of uh consideration what's going to happen with the macro events and the results and you don't just buy based on the yield correct uh you want to have a look at the valuation based on PB as well and then like you you want to have an
• 23:00 - 23:30 exit ENT in mindre uh it's very different from a more passive investor who just like oh the U is I think banks are semicyclic okay in nature you want to get full full uh like benefits optimization of of investing in the bank right you you you should buy it when it's you follow the yeah then when it's at almost pick the cycle you won't get the best price but you almost there right okay and you exit and you wait for the next cycle come I I did it this is my second time doing it okay the the
• 23:30 - 24:00 first cycle was in the two uh before 201 2016 the the the bank crash so you buy within 2018 was picked we sold right so that wents up like 50 60 70% then uh I'm just repeating the cycle right now okay okay so there's actually there's actually a cycle that you can follow correct uh if you're familiar with enough it's quite a good thing to yeah but of course you are someone who like to be passive and you don't want to do and you want to hold long term that price must be a good
• 24:00 - 24:30 price that you buy your entry price like my entry price for OCB was a good price if if I want to be passive I can be passive okay you can buy forget and enjoy High you so it really depends on your style investing but I think for single Banks it's something that you can actually track and follow uh it's just three Banks right but then if you want to learn how to do this do check out divid machines.com we actually teach you how to do that within the course itself so that you can basically write the cycle know when the best entry and exit is for the single Banks y all right so do check out divid machines.com if you're interested anything else you want to share for the banks or the results to
• 24:30 - 25:00 nothing Bank won't be affected by any disruption or this hope money grow money right moneyone if something happens to the banks we did yeah and somehow with the buzer 4 they become even more like okay okay all right so that's pretty much it right guys all right so if you have any questions about the banks and the most uh know recent results for all three Banks put them in the comment section we can answer your questions uh and you know if you like this round table please hit the like button of course check out divid machines.com if you're interested to learn how to invest for passive income for dividends uh it's only open till this Sunday and then it's
• 25:00 - 25:30 going to close yep all right so with that my name is Adam rman Victor thank thank you so much especially you know for you know going through all the results and reading the transcripts and everything so that you guys can learn what's up uh and then we just basically give it all to you within this last 15 20 minutes and with that we'll see you R goodbye