Earnings Preview Frenzy

SoFi Stock Earnings Predictions + Q&A LIVE

Estimated read time: 1:20

Summary

In a lively livestream, Future Investing explores the upcoming SoFi earnings call and the broader fintech landscape. The host passionately discusses various expectations from analysts, potential new products, and the competitive environment involving companies like Robin Hood and PayPal. With humor and deep insights, he addresses questions about SoFi's growth trajectory, new initiatives, and stock market dynamics. As viewers engage with queries about app downloads and potential stock price movements, the creator emphasizes a long-term investment approach, highlighting how fintech companies are disrupting traditional banking sectors.

Highlights

Host goes live early, ready to discuss SoFi's potential and predictions ahead of tomorrow's earnings call. ⏰
Discussion includes SoFi's competitors like Robin Hood and PayPal, showcasing a broad fintech landscape. 🌐
Students of finance got an entertaining lesson in market dynamics, as the host dissected stock expectations and strategic moves. 🎓
The community sparked a lively debate around app download metrics and forecasting member growth. 📊
The host humorously interacts with viewers, answering burning questions about investing strategies, SoFi’s growth, and personal anecdotes. 🤔

Key Takeaways

Anticipation is high for SoFi's earnings call, and analysts are buzzing with predictions! 🐝
SoFi's smart focus on fintech growth could mean exciting times ahead, even amidst fierce competition from the likes of Robin Hood. 🚀
Viewers got a sneak peek into app downloads, strategic insights, and why fintech might just be the future of banking! 📈
A fun Q&A revealed investor sentiment and Market predictions – the audience was on the edge of their seats! 😲
With humorous anecdotes and robust discussions, the live chat was as entertaining as it was informative. 😂

Overview

Prepare for a finance-focused roller coaster! As SoFi's earnings call approaches, Future Investing's livestream delves deep into potential outcomes, analyst forecasts, and the fintech spheres it plays in. With SoFi gearing up against other fintech titans like Robin Hood, there's no shortage of competitive spirit, and investors surely felt the electric atmosphere!

The live chat was a melting pot of ideas and forecasts. Attendees shared insights on burgeoning fintech trends, comparing app downloads, debating their prompt conversions into members, and marveling at SoFi's reach. The session didn’t shy away from humor, engaging the audience with anecdotes and investment tales, lending a casual vibe to serious stock talk.

Most importantly, the host underscored the necessity of a long-term vision in investing. Highlighting how fintech like SoFi is on the brink of transforming traditional banking, the show was both a primer on market speculation and a masterclass in investment foresight. Tomorrow’s earnings might sway short-term sentiments, but for astute viewers, the focus remains on the spectacular long game.

Chapters

00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Overview This chapter introduces the topic of SoFi, touching on various analyst expectations, including both the author's and others' perspectives. The chapter promises a general Q&A session covering thoughts on SoFi's individual and new products, as well as its competition, notably Robin Hood. The conversation is designed to preemptively address potential topics of interest and prepare for audience inquiries.
00:30 - 01:00: Earnings Call Schedule The chapter titled 'Earnings Call Schedule' outlines the planned agenda for SoFi's earnings call. The schedule is as follows: The team will go live at 6:55 a.m., providing 5 minutes to prepare before the earnings report is released at 7:00 a.m. They will review the report for an hour. Then, at 8:00 a.m., the earnings call will begin and last until approximately 9:00 a.m. From 9:00 to 9:30 a.m., there will be a discussion analyzing how the call went, wrapping up preparations for the following day.
01:00 - 01:30: Other Companies Reporting Earnings The chapter discusses other companies that will be reporting their earnings, specifically mentioning Robin Hood, SoFi, PayPal, and Shift 4. While SoFi is highlighted as the main focus, the narrator expresses interest in monitoring PayPal and Shift 4's reports as well. The narrator mentions holding shares in Shift 4 and having previously held shares in PayPal, indicating a personal investment interest.
01:30 - 02:00: Discussion on SoFi Earnings and Stock Expectations The chapter discusses the anticipation and feelings surrounding an earnings call for SoFi. Unlike previous occasions, there appears to be a sense of calmness and confidence among individuals awaiting the report, as evidenced by the shared sentiment in a group chat. One participant mentioned that they felt this was the least nervous they have ever been about a SoFi earnings report, suggesting a level of comfort or expectation about the company's performance. The overall mood is relaxed, with another person expressing that they expect to have a good night's sleep.
02:00 - 02:30: SoFi and Fintech Competition The chapter discusses the competitive landscape between SoFi and other fintech companies, emphasizing the channel's objective of investing in the best fintech stocks available. The conversation lightly touches on 'Hood' (possibly referring to Robinhood), acknowledging its inclusion in the analysis without making it a primary focus. The host humorously addresses a personal comment about his hairline and notes the casual nature of the discussion.
02:30 - 03:00: Viewer Questions and Comments The chapter features a casual conversation where the speaker welcomes viewers and acknowledges having channel moderators to ensure safety. The speaker notes receiving an email from SoFi about FDIC insurance reaching 3 million, which has been available for about a month or three weeks.
03:00 - 03:30: SoFi's Growth and Membership The narrator discusses receiving an email about SoFi, mentioning a possible beta rollout. They recently bought 150 more shares in SoFi, expressing uncertainty about the impact on stock and upcoming earnings. Despite not knowing what will happen, they are eager to see the financials. The narrator acknowledges the stock's unpredictable nature, referencing similar events from the previous quarter.
03:30 - 04:00: Behind the Scenes Insights and Future Planning The chapter discusses the expectations and adjustments in the EPS (Earnings Per Share) for the full year as set by Wall Street and the management. Initially, Wall Street analysts expected an EPS of around 31 cents. However, management later indicated that the actual EPS would likely be around 25 cents. Consequently, Wall Street analysts revised their guidance to align with management's prediction of 25 cents. This adjustment led to a sell-off in the stock. The chapter provides insights into the behind-the-scenes processes of stock guidance adjustments and the subsequent market reactions.
04:00 - 04:30: Analysts and Market Predictions for SoFi The chapter discusses the perception of institutional investors regarding SoFi's performance, noting the stock price increase from $7 to $13. It highlights SoFi's loan platform business as a significant contributor to fee-based revenue, which can scale rapidly without the limitations or risks associated with traditional interest revenue. This growth potential signifies that SoFi's stock could be valued higher, especially if the company hosts loans on its balance sheet, capitalizing on faster-than-market growth in its platform services.
04:30 - 05:00: Impact of Economic Conditions on SoFi The chapter discusses the influence of economic conditions on the financial company SoFi. An analyst initially set a conservative price target of $17 for SoFi, which was featured in a report. The actual target was revealed to be $25 after going beyond the thumbnail of a video to get more details. This reflects an effort to manage expectations by underpromising and overdelivering.
05:00 - 05:30: SoFi's Loan Platform Business This chapter discusses SoFi's Loan Platform Business. The speaker acknowledges that despite an extensive 44-page examination of the platform, there is still much to learn, especially given the challenging macroeconomic environment. They reference a report where Jamie Diamond suggests that a recession may be a best-case scenario for the US. Amidst these uncertainties, they opt for a conservative $17 price target for SoFi, although they believe the fair value might be higher.
05:30 - 06:00: Digital Banking and Competition The chapter focuses on digital banking and competition, with a particular emphasis on the stock market and price targeting. An analyst named David comments on the noise surrounding price targets, agreeing with the sentiment that they often don't reflect the actual value. Another analyst, Devon Ryan, is highlighted for maintaining his high price target on Robin Hood's stock despite its significant drop from high 20s to about $7 per share. Ryan stood out as holding the highest price target when others adjusted theirs.
06:00 - 06:30: Future of SoFi and New Product Speculations In this chapter, the discussion focuses on the future of SoFi and various speculations surrounding new product offerings. The conversation highlights an analyst's optimistic price target prediction for the company, standing at $28 despite the stock's decline. This prediction reflects confidence in SoFi's sustainable business model and the stickiness of its ecosystem. Comparatively, other analysts have set significantly lower price targets, showcasing the bold stance taken by this particular expert.
06:30 - 07:00: SoFi and Robinhood's Market Strategies The chapter discusses the market strategies of SoFi and Robinhood, emphasizing the rare success in the financial market attributed to strategic insights and high-level expertise. Devin Ryan, a highly rated Wall Street analyst, is specifically mentioned for his brilliant contributions. His participation at the Robinhood Gold event highlighted his intellectual prowess alongside his competent team, which includes about five members that collaborated on an insightful report about SoFi.
07:00 - 07:30: Crypto and SoFi's Future The chapter discusses the future of cryptocurrency and SoFi, emphasizing the importance of understanding the business. It highlights a statement made by an individual who called on analysts to re-evaluate their perspectives on the business, suggesting that outdated views may be affecting market perceptions. The narrative implies skepticism towards analyst reports and suggests a need for a more informed and current analysis of the business landscape.
07:30 - 08:00: Discussion on Stock Predictions and Strategies In this chapter, the discussion revolves around stock predictions and various strategies. There is a mention of traditional views overemphasizing SoFi's lending strategies while not fully recognizing the potential for margins and the capital-light nature of the platform. The flexibility of SoFi allows it to focus on growth, seize opportunities for mergers and acquisitions, or ramp up stock buybacks when necessary. The excitement is mostly about the growth trajectory expected by 2025, although there is a minor disagreement with Devon Ryan's perspective.
08:00 - 08:30: Final Thoughts and Viewer Engagement The chapter 'Final Thoughts and Viewer Engagement' covers a financial report where analysts predict earnings per share (EPS) for SoFi in upcoming years. For 2025, a 25 cents EPS is forecasted, and 50 cents for 2026. Despite these figures, SoFi has a history of exceeding its guidance, and the report suggests that the company will do so again, anticipating higher than conservative estimates between 55 to 80 cents.

SoFi Stock Earnings Predictions + Q&A LIVE Transcription

00:00 - 00:30 to kill all potential late allegations we have gone early ladies and gentlemen we should be like 10 seconds early or something like this welcome welcome welcome welcome today we're going to be talking about SoFi everything SoFi okay going through different analyst expectations to uh my own expectations other SoFi analyst expectations general Q&A thoughts on individual products new products competition like Robin Hood um
00:30 - 01:00 everything everything SoFi okay the reason for this is tomorrow is their earnings call so we'll be going live at 6:55 a.m that gives us 5 minutes to settle down get ready for the earnings report which comes out at 7:00 we get to sit with that report for about an hour and then the earnings call comes out at 8:00 for which we'll listen to that about 9 from 9 to 9:30 we'll talk about the you know how the call actually went and then that should wrap it up and then uh prepare us for the next day after
01:00 - 01:30 that which will be Robin Hood in fact tomorrow morning we'll actually have a couple other companies that I'm going to keep an eye on just to report slightly obviously SoFi will be the main topic of discussion but tomorrow is also PayPal as well and Shift 4 now Shiffor is not a name that I cover extremely often on this channel but I am a big fan of the company i hold shares in in their business and PayPal has been a company that I've previously held shares on is this live this is live this is not a
01:30 - 02:00 premiere video this is a live video this earnings call will feel different yeah i mean who's actually nervous this time i saw this in a in a group chat that people were talking and and someone said "This is probably the least nervous I've been for a SoFi uh report." And I couldn't agree more i'm going to sleep like a baby tonight i was not late dennis is right i was not late
02:00 - 02:30 we don't gaff about Hood we gaff a little bit about Hood we're We're a Hood channel as well all right we don't discriminate we find the best fintech companies on the market and we buy them all that's what we do tanner do a hairline reveal it's not looking good over on this section but yeah I just haven't got my haircut that's why I've been wearing hats lately it's just too long
02:30 - 03:00 that's it i'm not uh not like maybe you're new to the channel but I used to not wear a lot of hats so ladies and gentlemen Jared what's up buddy good to have you in here i like a couple mods in the chat just to be safe glad you guys have come um SoFi emailed me today that the FDIC insurance is now available to 3 million that's been around for probably about a month now maybe three weeks uh
03:00 - 03:30 interesting that you got the email now maybe it was rolling out in beta or something but yeah we've heard that for for quite a while now i just bought 150 more shares so I uh I don't know how this is going to affect the stock what what earnings is actually going to happen um that said I do uh very much look forward to the actual financials now the stock can do whatever it wants i mean this is the problem right and what happened last quarter as well is that
03:30 - 04:00 expectations got set at a certain way for uh you know full year EPS was set by uh Wall Street I think it was 31 cents something around there then management came out and said hey we're probably going to see somewhere around 25 cents and then this is what actually ended up happening is Wall Street analysts then you know changed their mind on on guidance and then readjusted that to 25 so then they actually backed down and then the stock sold off and then uh
04:00 - 04:30 institutional investors actually saw through that and brought the stock from $7 up to $13 because the loan platform business actually is bringing on more feebased revenue than net interest revenue which you know can scale much faster there's nothing capping the growth there and there's no risk either so if that can potentially grow faster than you know traditional lending markets that they're in hosted loans on their own balance sheet then the stock is worth a much higher price if you guys saw my video recently or potentially
04:30 - 05:00 just scrolled past the thumbnail and saw oh you know uh an analyst put a $17 price target cool and didn't actually click on the video uh I left a little bit to be I'm trying to underpromise and overd deliver it the actual price target was really $25 okay um so you got to click past the the thumbnail and actually see what the report was about but they set a $17 price target to be extremely conservative because it's an initiated
05:00 - 05:30 position for them which means although they did an amazing job doing a full deep dive 44page deep dive they still realize that they have a lot more to learn about this business as well as a rougher macro environment in fact I just read some report talking about how Jamie Diamond says a recession is best case scenario for uh for the United States so they said with a rougher macro environment wanting to be more conservative we set a $17 price target but we actually think fair value could
05:30 - 06:00 be $25 a share feels like a lot of analyst price targets tend to usually just be noise says David i 100% agree okay Devon Ryan is a special cookie and I'll tell you why back whenever Robin Hood went from you know high 20s down to about $7 a share he kept his price target the entire time he was the only one he was by far the highest price target on Robin Hood in the high or I think it was
06:00 - 06:30 mid20s at the time and then he adjusted it it was like $22 and then he brought it up to $28 um and he never adjusted it below that and the reason was is that he thought that the ecosystem was really sticky and that they had a great business model okay and I think the next highest analyst uh you know price target on hood was like 15 so to stick out much much higher at 22 and never adjusting below that even though the stock had fallen you know less than half which means for an analyst ever to set a price target that shows a more than 100%
06:30 - 07:00 upside is a really rare occurrence uh so I have to give a lot of credit to Devon Ryan he's probably one of the highest rated Wall Street analysts let alone uh in the financial sector okay so they do a very great job i actually met him at the Robin Hood Gold event unbelievably smart individual along with the rest of their team right so it's not just him there's I think about five of them that were on this report for SoFi uh it was it was very very well read he
07:00 - 07:30 understands the business and actually if you go back into that uh thing if we want to just stick on this for a second there were a couple really really great things that he said so first up was this so although yes feels like a lot of analyst reports tend to usually just be noise uh he kind of called out analysts and said "Hey guys it's time to reook at this business okay we believe the market is anchored
07:30 - 08:00 to legacy perceptions overindexing on SoFi's lending routes and underappreciating the margin potential and capital light nature of this evolving platform sofi has the flexibility to lean into growth make opportunistic M&A moves or accelerate the stock repurchases if appropriate which all three of those would be you know really exciting i obviously lean into growth as what's going to come that's what they said for 2025 uh the only thing that I think was a little bit wrong on Devon Ryan's
08:00 - 08:30 report is that and I just think it's because they're brand new to the position is that they said 25 cents of EPS for 2025 and 50 cents of EPS for 2026 and then in the rest of the report he says uh SoFi has never missed guidance they've always exceeded it and they uh believe that they are going to surpass their longerterm guidance and that they're being conservative so if they're calling for 55 to 80 cents so let's say
08:30 - 09:00 68 cents put it in the middle there why are you saying they're going to get 50 why don't you come out and say they're going to get 68 cents so that's just the reason why I I spent a lot of time on that report than I usually would on other reports right random company doing a random analysis whatever i do agree that they they can be noise but there's a reason why the stock had gone so high whenever he put
09:00 - 09:30 out that report is because a lot of the street actually does respect uh Devon Ryan's team's opinion so that was very good remember institutions and and who pays Devon Ryan's salary right like he comes from citizens it's not this massive massive institution obviously it's enough to pay his salary but institutions are buying those reports directly they're not doing that for for no reason they take a lot of uh you know of their opinion
09:30 - 10:00 seriously so it can move it can move markets it's important to keep an eye on that um okay let's see i wouldn't be surprised if SoFi's earnings are A+ and we drop 10%
10:00 - 10:30 so the o the only way that we drop 10% is if there's one particular thing in the report that's not super exciting a lowering of guidance uh a comment about notto saying that you know lending is deteriorating or or lending credit is deteriorating something like that would actually have to bring us down lending growth or or the tech platform goes negative potentially people are not only putting uh no premium for the tech
10:30 - 11:00 platform but actually putting negative premium for the tech platform saying that this is actually costing uh SoFi something rather than like like it actually hurting the future growth not that it would actually be costing the business but but but costing them forward earnings growth that would suck dennis don't worry about that a lot of the the likes and stuff that's just you know YouTube has a hard time you
11:00 - 11:30 you'll see multiple people that see different likes on the channel plus I don't even know if likes mean anything for YouTube anyway you know I've called out for people to subscribe these sort of things liking I don't even know what it does what time is the report uh is that the same Scott Davis by the way Davies that was in Amit's channel that told Chris to go watch the view i was laughing out loud if that's you that was hilarious
11:30 - 12:00 um but what time is the report 7:00 a.m tomorrow Eastern Standard Time 8:00 for the call um I got in at $6.50 and I've been DCAing ever since hope SoFi announces crypto soon well they are I don't know if people saw this but they are hiring for crypto like crazy i think uh as of
12:00 - 12:30 the latest report they had nine cryptoreated jobs that they were seeking for nine so they definitely have the all clear to come back um here let's find I think VM did a good report uh showing off each week what the job changes have been let's go ahead and take a look at
12:30 - 13:00 that time for another SoFi weekly open position changes um so as you can see in engineering we have a front-end web engineer for crypto senior engineering director for crypto manager for crypto uh software engineer uh for crypto more software engineers crypto crypto crypto staff software engineer crypto over on
13:00 - 13:30 product uh senior product director for crypto manager for crypto um I think that's it yeah tons of crypto in So if you think that uh it's you know that things aren't changing you got to adjust ray coffee for tomorrow morning thank you my friend do appreciate it
13:30 - 14:00 um it feels like SoFi and Hood communities have a big ven diagram overlap but that doesn't mean mutual exclusion yeah of course i like them both i think that the market for financial services is I mean it might not be the most exciting area in all of markets but it might be some of the most understandable or at least
14:00 - 14:30 for me right you collect customers at a very understandable customer acquisition cost they are very sticky products you can keep people on for long periods of time and the the revenue or the ways that they make revenue on their products are extremely clear and cleancut right so I love financial services it makes a ton of money super high margin lots of growth and these new modern players are no longer these uh
14:30 - 15:00 sort of fast growing fintexs that hope to disrupt but are not making money no these are highly profitable businesses that are scaling into tens of millions of users that are just wiping the floor with legacy institutions like the growth rates are unheard of so I'm very uh I'm very excited by the way I met a bunch of people at Emitz meetup in Toronto i'm actually thinking about doing our own meetup for like you
15:00 - 15:30 know whether it's uh my community or with Tevises as well or something like this in the Toronto area i think would be super fun amitz was great i mean uh most people knew me there anyway so it felt like a great meetup like there was a ton of SoFi chat and Robin Hood and Nvidia it was it was awesome but uh what's it called whenever talking about um there was a a guy there and he asked
15:30 - 16:00 about deposits he said you know one way that I'm trying to track uh SoFi is through deposits and lately it's been kind of stagnating however you need to figure out the types of deposits that you're focusing on okay so let me go ahead and bring up my um spreadsheet because you're you're going to see a little bit of this again and some people look at deposits as interest bearing or non-interest bearing or some people are just looking at deposits in general and they're saying "Oh you know what it's starting to slow down." And although SoFi money accounts
16:00 - 16:30 are climbing maybe it's not climbing as fast because uh you know customer deposits might be slowing but this is not even really true okay here you go maybe I can make this bigger so you guys can see this but so in the darker blue the the area that has just continued to grow okay those are customer deposits those are
16:30 - 17:00 the users that are depositing money into their accounts whether it's for SoFi or SoFi Plus they are making more and more dollars okay that's going up however there's this other add-on here which is CD deposits okay or or certified deposits or or for Canadian users think like GIC okay this is much higher um much higher cost for SoFi to handle
17:00 - 17:30 rather than the other way around so they are actually trying to shrink this if you look at the differences between these two because they're tacked on top of each other this has gotten wider and wider and wider and wider until uh Q1 of 2024 and then they made a very large effort now you're seeing the the gap between these two start to shrink as they're bringing down the CD deposits in trying to keep the consumer deposits high okay so it's about the the consumer deposits that show off the health of the consumer and how deeply they're integrated uh like ingrained with SoFi
17:30 - 18:00 rather than all interest bearing deposits all put together all right little flash of the charts for you guys there you go um is this stock going up or down tomorrow that's not my call to make uh for a little introduction for the people that don't know me very well I'm a long-term shareholder think like um like
18:00 - 18:30 a boring investor like Warren Buffett however trying to buy tech companies that have extremely large total addressable markets that are disrupting and taking market share that's the companies that I invest in i buy I really try not to sell um I do rotate out of companies from time to time whenever I've whenever you know the thesis has changed uh but I'm not buying and selling constantly swing trading or something like this i'm buying great companies and trying to make you know
18:30 - 19:00 generational wealth all right it could go up or down i mean I I I hope for it to go up i think that this quarter will do well but also I think the rest of the market understands that it'll do very well so um they might be able to surprise on some you know loan platform business deals things like this potentially future guidance that they end up giving out raising guidance for
19:00 - 19:30 the year that could all be very exciting um but yeah like the market has a mind of its own whenever it comes to SoFi's you know um earnings tanner you skipped so many questions on purpose no there's just a hundred comments while I'm answering the first one um SoFi Tuesday Robin Hood
19:30 - 20:00 Wednesday yes yeah we're doing uh Robin Hood Weekly or whatever it's called now uh tonight so that's where you're going to see myself and Royy's predictions for Robin Hood earnings um and we can talk about the earnings that I'm expecting for SoFi uh today you know we we've seen all these little clues 11 million members um whether that's hit now or hit in late April because obviously April is
20:00 - 20:30 the second quarter so although we definitely believe they're at 11 million plus members how did that happen did that happen 800,000 now and then an additional 100,000 in the next quarter or did they slam out 900,000 new members this quarter and just completely skip the 800,000 milestone if that's the case I mean wow now I have to put it up i don't actually think we're going to get 900,000 i think data driven investing said
20:30 - 21:00 900,000 i have the app downloads i I have the numbers there it We don't even have 900,000 downloads i don't see how we're going to get uh 900,000 obviously the conversion rate uh has been higher than 100% of downloads meaning some people are coming through on the website or some people are coming through later than whenever they downloaded the app um but essentially here we we can take a look here this is the entire sensor data
21:00 - 21:30 report so it just comes in like this we get uh all the different lines so so just to break this down for you guys this is uh US country for app stores iPhones 107,000 for uh this date where's the date here right here that's for January 1st of 2024 so we can add up all of that and essentially what we ended up getting looks something like this so I'll make this a little bit bigger
21:30 - 22:00 there we go so you can see the downloads here uh which I'm just adding up all the different columns for US downloads across Android uh apps or the iPhones iPads all the different Apple devices uh taking what we actually saw for downloads correlating that with their members and then you get a conversion rate okay so if we take all this data we already have Q1 data
22:00 - 22:30 852,000 downloads at their average conversion rate of 97% brings us very close to 832,000 new members okay 832,000 new members that's a little bit of a ways away from where we need to be to get to uh 11 million let let's actually see what what it takes to get to 11 million bear with me i'll find out uh what what we have today so we're at 10 yeah okay
22:30 - 23:00 perfect um and then I'll just do a little formula here yeah so we probably need another 40,000 members on top of this or about 20,000 higher than downloads uh to get to 11 million
23:00 - 23:30 members which is what data driven investing is is hoping for it's kind of a whiles away you know it's a little bit away but it's possible i mean we've gone over conversion rates of what Sensor Tower shows for for downloads before right we've seen 106% 107% it can happen hey bro nice meeting you on Saturday jamaican patty shop guy Chris
23:30 - 24:00 chris I remember you nice to meet you yeah the the meetings were so fun nice to see you that's awesome um yo Tanner I miss your daily live streams your videos uh or what I listen to on my way to work the next day are you coming back or what please so here's the thing i'm gonna just try to do them occasionally whenever I have time like like right now okay we can come in do
24:00 - 24:30 these talks answer all your questions about SoFi whatever the stock is if there's big news on Google Amazon uh Nvidia whatever will I come back to daily streams i don't know my experiment for seeing what was better live streams or pre-recorded videos it was so clearly pre-recorded videos i mean uh I know individually there are some cases where people say they like the live streams better but the numbers just show one thing and that's that a large percentage
24:30 - 25:00 of the audience appreciated the more concise you know breakdowns of of topics rather than daily ramblings of uh Tanner on live me and the third person uh where can you find these app downloads so Sensor Tower is the where I'm getting the data it's actually a pretty hefty subscription i think it's like $300 a month something like that uh to get Sensor Tower data i have a uh Sensor Tower employee that sends me
25:00 - 25:30 these numbers so um yeah that's uh I guess YouTube privilege or whatever you want to call it um Robin Hood's numbers also came in they came in a little bit differently than what we saw uh you know SoFi's numbers come in at we we actually got them via daily downloads so you can see each individual day tens of thousands
25:30 - 26:00 couple thousand here and then as we get closer near the bottom you see just the the actual amount of downloads way higher some days here bringing in 44,000 new downloads there um yeah crazy anyway if we bring it back to the top I'll I'll just show you guys something actually I can just go to this page i think I cleaned it up over here uh for Robin Hood for people that are interested here a same sort of conversion rate that's actually pretty averaged out in in the 50s we we get an average of uh 50.72% i
26:00 - 26:30 think there's going to be about 887,000 new members that's not including churn okay that's resurrected accounts that's uh new members on the platform not churned accounts which usually there's about 200 to 300,000 okay so think 500 to 600,000 great quarter for uh Robin Hood and uh one of their highest in terms of total downloads i mean we have a 2 million here we've got a 1.9 million but 1.75 in the last uh you know very
26:30 - 27:00 many years third place great quarter great quarter robin Hood's doing well as well but so is SoFi if we take a look at the amount of members I mean this is like unbelievable we had the Q3 which uh for people that are new to SoFi this might not mean anything to you but this was actually a major bump from Taylor Swift taylor Swift did like a multi-day I think it was like a week-l long concert at SoFi Stadium and we saw the amount of
27:00 - 27:30 traction that was going to SoFi skyrocket literally because they were bringing so much traffic to that stadium it was crazy it was crazy then we got back to normaly right uh and we've been used to that 500 600,000 however Anthony has been pretty clear all the way back in 2023 that he said probably by 2025 you're going to start seeing quarters that bring on 800 to 1 million new members per quarter as they really ramp
27:30 - 28:00 up their growth efforts right it also is macro dependent so if the macro is is better for them if rates are coming down if they're able to make more money on some of their other segments then obviously they can pour more money into sales and marketing but if you guys remember the Devon Ryan report this company like their real their their actual um advantage is operating leverage okay so so take a look here this is this is super interesting if you guys remember from
28:00 - 28:30 that video that I just posted SoFi can add incremental members and products with limited corresponding OPEX growth operating expenses okay so they're at this they have this crazy amount of operating leverage right now meaning that for every new dollar of revenue that they bring on they can save more and more that goes to the bottom line in terms of net income or or earnings per share okay that's really good and it's taken years for them to build up to where they are today but we're here now
28:30 - 29:00 baby like especially by the end of 2025 that's when it's really going to to finish out because then we're on technis fully but yeah things are things are doing well tanner should be hired by SoFi no chance if they won't talk to me they're definitely not going to hire me and then plus I probably couldn't talk about all these other companies and everything i'm I'm living my dream life right now i don't I don't want to change
29:00 - 29:30 anything um have you given any thought to the settlement of their convertible notes i actually haven't uh I need to go back and read through some of those uh things again i don't remember much of it to be honest um we'll be lucky to see 1425 tomorrow we'll uh we'll see i don't know
29:30 - 30:00 i've got no clue noto must be watching this channel from my understanding he he hasn't said that he's been watching but he says he sees everything and uh you know out of the people that cover SoFi I mean we probably are up there in terms of popularity so I'm sure that he does watch some of it but he seems like a guy that likes to read things more and I definitely don't post any of my stuff in uh you know text format or anything like
30:00 - 30:30 this which I probably should i should probably just do like a newsletter of all the things that I'm covering on the videos but yeah those are future projects if anyone has any uh ideas on that that they you know want to do a newsletter let me know um any chance that we see 29 cents of earnings like last quarter no no no no no no so Billy uh that was because of a
30:30 - 31:00 massive tax benefit okay they had been losing money for so many years that they've collected such a massive benefit we might see a small small advantage like I think Robin Hood has a few cents left that they can end up throwing through in terms of earnings per share i mean I think it's like $5 million but it's not the near50 million or or whatever it was $70 million that they ended up throwing through uh last quarter same thing for SoFi right they've actually been uh not profitable
31:00 - 31:30 and profitable in very similar periods so SoFi's last quarter really what we ended up seeing uh once you adjust it this is why obviously good investors will say "Oh you know adjusted numbers are BS that's all bull crap." If you don't understand what the adjustments are okay if you actually go through and read the adjustments it doesn't mean bull crap it just means hey you're actually seeing what the business is doing and cutting out tax benefits and these sort of things if you look at their actual uh earnings adjusted I can
31:30 - 32:00 actually throw this on screen it's on It's It's on my screen i'll show you guys we got about $61 million of adjusted net income at an 8.2% margin which showed up to be roughly about 5 cents of EPS maybe a little bit less i was looking at from a basic uh earnings per share yeah 61 million not the 280 something million that they ended up posting so there's not a chance we're going to see that again but that doesn't
32:00 - 32:30 matter like the market didn't rally on 29 cents that that that part doesn't matter at all um did you see the news of SoFi incorporating a Swiss subsidiary so yes I did see something along those lines in terms of uh Sofi's tech platform potentially
32:30 - 33:00 being in Switzerland now we have seen some reports about this i had some uh people like in Ireland and everything so a couple other UK places that were talking about um you know SoFi being their like their tech platform that they were switching over to Galileo they were switching over to these platforms but we had never really seen any European entrance now we're starting to see this as well so uh potentially Europe and the UK is things
33:00 - 33:30 that we're starting to see who knows now he says uh SoFi Insider here says which I don't know if it's SoFi Insider we haven't seen any evidence of that it just you know they're scouring the internet for things blowing it out of proportion a little bit here sofi is coming to Europe i don't think that's true at all i think that this is only for the tech platform which is Galileo okay so this is their banking infrastructure platform has nothing to do with actually taking customer
33:30 - 34:00 deposits so it's exciting you're going to see the pumpers uh say "Oh my gosh you know we're going to be doing European personal loans." That's probably not for an extremely long period of time now hopefully it does happen it's not Europe before Canada they're not going to Europe in fact the tech platforms already in Canada so COO for example they run on Galileo um they're already in Canada the tech platform not the bank
34:00 - 34:30 and this is not showing us that the bank is in Europe at all um not talked about enough in my opinion still zero shares held in reserve for their 2020 or 2029 notes per their 10K they settle via cash same impact as a $1 billion buyback who knows thank you by the way um Tanner I work in a UK bank i sent you
34:30 - 35:00 information on us using Galileo for a mortgage calculator there you go i uh wasn't going to dox you but if you want to um do that yourself cool the script can flip on the SoFi and Hood comparison it I mean sure I would love for it to there's one thing that I think
35:00 - 35:30 that Devon Ryan says so well and that he says uh SoFi products have to stand on their own okay and that in an environment across a lot of fintech players so okay I'm going to give you guys a lot of background about why I think the way I do with fintech rather than other institutions or other other sectors so uh in financial services historically there's been many many thousands of different winners okay you see all different types of regional banks community banks uh you know meggaap
35:30 - 36:00 banks that have all won in a space of financial services there's a lot of capital to go around okay um however whenever they talk about like Devon Ryan talking about SoFi they say that their products have to stand on their own and win because people are coming to SoFi for a specific product they're not coming for an ecosystem they're coming for a specific you know solution and then once they're there then they can cross-ell them to all these other products okay however whenever you look
36:00 - 36:30 at the comparison between SoFi and Hood the concern like from me is is the checking account APY as high as SoFi so is it high enough that a SoFi member is going to leave SoFi and go to Hood no but is it high enough where a a user that's looking at a top five US banks or something like this or top five US checking accounts and they're looking through a YouTube video to see which platform they want to switch to they're going to see this one pays four and this one pays 3.8 okay they see no other
36:30 - 37:00 reason to pick SoFi over Hood for that specific product because the the solutions that they are being sold on is specifically saying that this one is better than this okay now that's just one example but if you take the credit card paying 3% the brokerage offering more solutions all of these different things okay those users may now choose Robin Hood over SoFi so it does create some concern for uh some users now
37:00 - 37:30 people say that the market is large enough for lots of people to win look at the current banking uh setup right now there's so many community banks so many regionals all of these different areas uh everyone can win there's space for everyone but that's very different in a digital environment especially digital only okay so it's not like the community banks and regional banks for which users will choose whichever regional bank is potentially closest to them in proximity which happens a lot especially in you
37:30 - 38:00 know rural America where there's a community bank that services this neighborhood and that is what people will end up choosing right there's no competition or or you can drive out much further but that is your bank however in a digital first environment people are going to choose the absolute best or the one that has found them first if they're not actively searching so the the environment becomes a much more winner takes all or a winner takes much more
38:00 - 38:30 than the usual environment of branch banking for which it gets sort of uh selected by region but if everyone across 50 states can pick SoFi or can pick Robin Hood it's a very different environment okay so each individual product needs to stand on their own that's very important to remember this is a new environment for financial services but it also means that the total addressable market or or the potential for one individual company can grow much bigger okay it means that the banks of the future will will surpass
38:30 - 39:00 market caps of what we see JP Morgan currently at because they can service a much larger percentage of the total pie look at New Bank as being by far the best example of this going into a market with a better solution than a legacy provider and they are taking a massive share of the market and I don't mean you know 5% or 10% which would be huge in American banking i'm talking 60% of the entire adult population is being serviced by new bank and that's in Brazil okay and the reason for that is
39:00 - 39:30 they're digital first so they can reach rural area are areas without any sort of expansion or time to actually you know there's no need for 200y old banks to start getting across 50 states it's immediate okay and uh if their products are better than their competitors then they will instantly win now they need to be a leapfrog better but hopefully that's what SoFi and Robin Hood are offering and hopefully SOFA can bring you know the strength that Robin Hood has been showing off recently so that's all I wanted to say
39:30 - 40:00 that it is a different environment by the way Michael thank you so much brother i do appreciate it thank you for supporting the channel uh any guess on big announcements tomorrow so a little bit yes uh one thing that's very interesting is that the loan platform business was not put out with any sort of press release okay q3 earnings results came out and they said "By the way we got
40:00 - 40:30 this massive deal with this company Fortress Group $2 billion on a brand new product we didn't even tell you guys about any big new announcements tomorrow?" Yeah we've started doing loan platform business for student loans and that correlated well with our Smart Start uh new products that allow for a 9-month delay on student loans that would look great you know so there's absolutely uh potential for new products to be launched that we potentially haven't heard about
40:30 - 41:00 that same uh user on X was the person who had found out that level one options or or potentially selling options is within the the app code for SoFi as well as catch cash coach or other things that are cash coach cash coachesque that's a mouthful uh that have to do with SoFi relay which is their credit monitoring um you know monitoring other accounts that are off of SoFi or external accounts to manage
41:00 - 41:30 their balances and uh credit and everything like this so yeah Tanner how do you reason realistically compare SoFi Plus to Robin Hood Gold uh I mean right now it's hard to tell it seems like Robin Hood Gold is across their entire ecosystem sofi Plus seems to be across checking and savings with benefits that uh you know go across
41:30 - 42:00 the ecosystem but the entry is on checking and savings robin Hood Gold is you're having people directly sign up that only use brokerage you're having people sign up that only use credit card you're having people sign up that only use the credit uh checking and savings okay that is exciting sofi can now start doing that with their new subscription model $10 a month but you know there's going to be some like like we're going
42:00 - 42:30 to need to see that actually develop and it would be unbelievable if they can start making those moves better more premium credit cards that are only for SoFi Plus users uh better rates on loans which they're already doing but that might actually allow people to sign up and pay you know $10 a month get a better rate on their l loan which would already pay for that subscription and then bleed off into other products that already have better offerings on a service that you're already paying for that would be much better but we need to actually see that in the numbers and
42:30 - 43:00 we're just not seeing that yet but they could become very much like Robin Hood Gold whenever you're talking about who's in the lead right now I mean it's Robin Hood um not being way too quiet the last week or so yeah I mean it's a blackout period for them right so whenever you're coming into earnings roughly about 2 weeks or so uh it could be very dangerous for them to say anything so it's a blackout period for them they're not going to say
43:00 - 43:30 anything he can talk all he wants after tomorrow it's not a long wait so what are the predictions uh we can talk about it so um here I right now am expecting about 825,000 new members uh I I think that the products per member will increase i think that Galileo is going to continue to do well slow amount of
43:30 - 44:00 growth uh total adjusted net revenue at $790 million that's a 36% increase year-over-year this is way surpassing their their previous growth and um you know net revenue is going to or sorry net income is going to stay roughly flat 5 cents a share 63 million as they push out more towards growth and less for profitability this
44:00 - 44:30 year tanner when are you going to do a solo cross Canada tour i just don't think there would be an audience for that i think like 6% of my viewers on Canada or or sorry on on the YouTube channel are from Canada almost all of them i think it's like 70% is from the United States and then other things like Singapore you know UK all that stuff uh okay shift for earnings that's tomorrow i don't have any predictions
44:30 - 45:00 for it i to be honest I haven't been looking at it too much um but I will be doing some sort of a review on the earnings i'm excited i think that they'll do absolutely fine a lot of it's going to be about tariff impacts and these sort of things for their small businesses but overall I think it should be fine like whenever you think about the different services that they're doing it's restaurants so their inventory is not going to be impacted by China hotels potentially travel that could be impacted a lot of a lot less people
45:00 - 45:30 coming into the United States could impact it for sure but is it enough to stop their overall growth who knows um but yeah I think they'll do fine and I'm excited to see PayPal's numbers as well eu represent yeah I don't know uh Europe as a percentage of the total viewership is not like one statistic so it gets broken
45:30 - 46:00 down in each individual country i haven't added it up tener do you work or only invest i guess you could call it only invest i don't have a full-time job but this is um I don't know i guess this is part of it but uh no mainly everything is to just service my investments right so all
46:00 - 46:30 the due diligence is for companies that I also am investing in or potentially looking at investing in like one of the more recent videos I was talking about Uber and the Trade Desk and Shark Ninja and all these interesting companies that I don't own i actually own one of those companies now maybe you guys can guess it but um yeah it's it's all just for my own investing purposes have I heard about Viceerve yes
46:30 - 47:00 yes i don't uh you know follow them closely but obviously they're they're one of the legacy giants um so yeah joseph you're right the trade desk ladies and gentlemen TTD and I mean so far it's doing all right like we uh we bought very low okay am I in D-Wave no
47:00 - 47:30 um we bought very low and now advertising looks like it's going to do well and to top that all off Jeff Green said "You know what we think with all this regulatory pressure on Google that uh you know Google should leave the open market they should service their own internal platforms like YouTube and Google search and all that but they should leave the rest of the internet alone and let us take that market share and I think that might actually be
47:30 - 48:00 what's h what's what's going to happen so very very interesting um is it true that Tanner and uh Tevis and Steve have a bet if Sofi will hit $20 or you will be married first oh I don't know about that i do know that Tevis has a bet with uh Matt for SoFi to hit $25 and um it's just like a one to one bet i'm like how dumb is that like Tevis
48:00 - 48:30 if you would have just bought $500 of Sofi it's like it was like $12.50 50 cents at the time i was like you would have made 500 if it went to 25 and yet you could have sold it at anywhere in between like it's like just in a much better option how old am I i'm 27 uh when you're investing long-term
48:30 - 49:00 how do you hedge your positions i don't really I you know what I I have some very very small techniques about uh you know having some ETF exposure or or less risky positions that I potentially rotate out of during uh times where my higher conviction stocks have o over uh you know sold off so for example like recently whenever Nvidia has crashed down into the the prices that we're seeing like today um you know sell off
49:00 - 49:30 some of the ETF this is what I do personally i'm not calling this as a strategy sell off some of those ETFs and potentially rotate into Nvidia to increase that because I think that it'll run more um because I believe in the company more than I do the the upside of just the general S&P
49:30 - 50:00 um let's see here i always click on your videos very good information thank you thank you i really do appreciate that i'm uh trying to make good videos I guess but I guess it uh I don't know up to you guys to decide whether they're good or not like I thought that recent Nvidia video was going to do so good and
50:00 - 50:30 I mean it did well i can't complain but like I thought it was going to like 5x more than that i was like this is a 50,000 view video all day long i post it and it was like you know performing worse than I ever would have expected i was like oh my gosh what's going on and it started to pick up it's still getting views but I'm like man I thought it was good information it was mind-blowing to me i find like like I've said many times this is weird for people cuz I I don't know anyone else that calls themselves this and I actually learned it from Don Valentine i
50:30 - 51:00 don't know if you'd call himself a total addressable market investor but it's what I really learned about you know you you pick a market that is so freaking big that it take an idiot to mess up the possibility of not gaining a massive business in those types of markets okay uh so for example Nvidia is just probably servicing one of the largest problems humanity has ever seen or or or I guess solutions it's not necessarily a problem but artificial intelligence is going to be everywhere in my opinion
51:00 - 51:30 okay um they're selling like gang busters and yet they're selling that you can buy the company at a cheaper valuation than you can Philip Morris the cigarette company the company that governments do not like where they're they're getting banned in every area and the product has to change constantly and all of this stuff paying a massive dividend okay people think a dividend is like a a a great obviously it is good as a shareholder but it's not good for a business every single time that you have to pay out a dividend especially a high
51:30 - 52:00 one you're taking a large share of your cash and just giving it away okay you're just shoveling it out the business leave leave for nothing in return other than a higher stock price which is fine for a mature business i'm not bashing Philip Morris for doing this but there should be some difference in the in the valuation that you put on a business based on the potential strength of future growth and you grow one of the key ways that you grow
52:00 - 52:30 is how much capital do you have you know how much can you reinvest in the business and get a actual good return on invested capital nvidia's return on invested capital is stupidly high and yet they're just getting nothing in return in terms of appreciation from stockholders or or shareholders same thing
52:30 - 53:00 sheena is blushing thank you um what about yield share ETFs like like yield maxing i don't really care about but in terms of like potential dividend ETFs or something that that could be interesting for some people especially if you're on a uh lower
53:00 - 53:30 risk that could be fine anything that's potentially giving out a higher payout ratio than potentially what they even have in cash or something that's just completely unsustainable no I don't believe in that i believe in buying quality businesses and holding them for the long term so $5,000 a share here we
53:30 - 54:00 come no but yeah um it's not that by the way I'm scrolling up reading some comments it's not that TTD does not want Google to be a monopoly so then they can be a monopoly i don't think that they have
54:00 - 54:30 they're they're not suing Google or doing anything like this uh Google is battling regulators ttd is not battling regulators and so they're looking at as as a business opportunity they're not making a moral judgment or uh some sort of harp about Google i'm sure they they work together very very well but if there's an open space in the market for them to take over opportunity I think any business should
54:30 - 55:00 look uh at that as opportunity for sure is SoFi currently limited to the United States yeah I guess you could say that obviously they have uh like a service in Hong Kong and their tech platform is servicing parts of Latin America Canada now potentially maybe some places in Europe um but that obviously makes up for a small percentage of their earnings
55:00 - 55:30 roughly about 12 to 13% so um SoFi Bank is limited to America a little late apart from some crypto announcement what are we guessing is going to be revealed tomorrow for SoFi earnings report so uh a beat on everything i want to see a beat on revenue by a large margin i want to see
55:30 - 56:00 a beat on EPS by a large margin or a decently large margin I should say they're roughly expecting somewhere around I think it's 3 cents 3 to 4 cents i I want to see somewhere like high fours fives you know something like that um and then in terms of uh guidance I want to be raised i want to see new products potentially like loan platform business for
56:00 - 56:30 um student loans i want to see student loans do really well they have a massive percentage of the total market in student loans so I want to see that continue and yeah how would you rank Nvidia Amazon Google SoFi and Netflix i'm biased because I hold four out of the five of those businesses i've been looking into some Netflix recently actually but um Nvidia number
56:30 - 57:00 one well should I copy it based on It depends are we talking long-term yeah see see if I'm just telling you what they are in in order of my portfolio holdings it will be different than um how I feel in in you know one month out versus multiple years out but uh Nvidia SoFi uh Google and Amazon is how I hold them in my portfolio um Google and Amazon are
57:00 - 57:30 almost tied then a massive jump up to get to am uh SoFi and then another unbelievable mass of ramp up to get to Nvidia nvidia is by far the largest position I have in my portfolio um and I want to grow it as well i want it to get to 50% of my portfolio netflix I don't hold however I think that it's a great company to hold in a trade war especially one that doesn't even currently operate in China
57:30 - 58:00 so um they have very little to lose and a ton to gain considering whenever times get tough it's not actually Netflix that gets all that cut from users it's really the concert goingings the um you know comedy shows the the the entertainment all of that sort of stuff that might be higher ticket not the 20some dollars or $16 a month that you can get you know essentially great entertainment from that really sticks and that's same for
58:00 - 58:30 Google by the way youtube uh actually sees a lot of activity because it's even lower down the line in terms of cost to the user it's just whether you believe if uh chat GPT is going to kill Google's business which the numbers look in terms of user counts for OpenAI and all of these different things it looks like OpenAI is going to kill Google's business but then
58:30 - 59:00 you take a look at their ad numbers and it's like oh wow they're continuing to grow and nothing's hurting and looks like Google as usual and it's cheap i like buying those types of companies fine 50% seems a bit excessive yes it does it will have been since like 2018 that I had anything in my portfolio that was 50% uh by far it's going to be the largest thing that I'm that I'm going after it is excessive i think that I have an
59:00 - 59:30 opportunity to make a boatload of money i think that the market's wrong i could be I could be wrong i could be wrong but whenever it's this cheap I don't see what I have to lose um obviously they can make less revenue than they've made the the quarter before but we're just not seeing it you know pick a tech company and tell me which one's investing less in artificial intelligence tell me which one's investing less into cloud
59:30 - 60:00 you're seeing almost every single hyperscaler massive cloud provider even the smaller cloud providers all making massive investments and they're buying one chip essentially so you know I like for example I see I see the bear case they just wrote down five bill on H20 chips yeah yeah those were deals that could have been won i think that China is going to buy
60:00 - 60:30 Nvidia chips regardless i think you're going to see Singapore and Taiwan revenue skyrocket um I think that you're going to see a reverse on those deals i can't imagine they're going to stay in for a very long period of time you are not going to stop China from getting their hands on artificial intelligence that's just the way technology goes they're going to be able to get it so what you're going to allow them to design their own uh you know super chips and and take that revenue away from
60:30 - 61:00 Americanbuilt and and founded companies you're going to give it to Huawei i don't like that i'd rather Jensen Wong and uh you know American shareholders profit off selling to China make them uh you know reliant on American products not China designing their own not
61:00 - 61:30 because they want to but because they're being forced to roberto says "On the loan platform business for SoFi do you have any concerns uh that that many can build such platforms giving out giving how quick SoFi's team it took for them to build?" Wow i don't know if you butchered that or I'm dyslexic i'm not sure uh no they did not it was not easy for them to build this they've been
61:30 - 62:00 underwriting loans since 2011 okay they're selling to customers that can't service their own loans jp Morgan's not buying SoFi loans fortress Group Black Rockck customers that do not originate loans are buying loans for their fixed fixed income products asset managers are buying these okay so um no I don't think many customers can can do what they're
62:00 - 62:30 doing what's the best case i that's not an answerable question the the stock goes up 100% like I don't know what the best case scenario is there is no best case
62:30 - 63:00 uh not that they can't buy SoFi's loan platform business loans it's that they probably will not for their own balance sheet it's not like SoFi is doing that well you know if there's one thing big banks do well it's underwrite they can underwrite loans fine they don't need SoFi because they have the data they have the
63:00 - 63:30 customers they have the ability they have the balance sheet they don't need SoFi for that when do you think a dividend will come uh for SoFi um long time hopefully a long long time 8 10 years hopefully long time you don't want a dividend like I said a dividend is paying cash out to shareholders okay
63:30 - 64:00 whenever you're paying cash out to shareholders they now have less capital to research and development m&a uh you know sales and marketing you want them to have money you don't want them to give out money now if you want a dividend company there's plenty of fintech companies or not fintech sorry there's plenty of financial companies that have a dividend so you don't need SoFi to be another one of those you want them to be
64:00 - 64:30 different and that like look at Amazon how does Amazon differentiate themselves they've got a lot of money pouring out but it's not to dividends so what is it to it's not even really to buybacks either it's to capital expenditures it's to buying more warehouses it's to buying more chips for AWS and that's what's allowing them to grow faster than their competitors because they're not worried about their shareholders they're saying "Hey you know what there's been no misalignment between uh what the customer wants and
64:30 - 65:00 what the shareholder wants if if a business can satisfy the customer then the shareholders will be will reap the reward because they'll come back for more okay so I'm not really a fan of a dividend unless a company is so brain dead that they don't need capital to have you know a straight monopoly so you're looking at like uh regul companies with regulatory capture some sort of uh product that no one wants to develop on like like
65:00 - 65:30 tobacco or something that like government does not like that like essentially it's in businesses that are heavily regulated heavily heavily regulated where new entrance will have a very hard time getting in and you can say that for financial services but it's not the case right now there's a big big push for new players in that space so no dividend
65:30 - 66:00 please um ex Toby has this exactly right a dividend is management saying we don't know how to grow our business not not maybe as as mean as that but saying we don't know what else to do with this right we have all this money we did what we thought we need to do to grow our 15% goal next year our 18% goal but we have leftovers but a really good
66:00 - 66:30 manager would say "Hey you know what actually I've got a strategy to bring this to 25% growth 30% growth always finding new ways to to continue expanding like the day Robin Hood offers a dividend I mean they're done but they won't because they know how to grow 100%
66:30 - 67:00 year-over-year brandon I gave my outlook not only did I give my outlook but you can also find a video on my entire predictions for SoFi uh or you could just scroll back a little bit i I I said some of the the numbers that I was looking for isn't Nvidia play paying dividends little different they're paying almost the smallest dividend that they can find and they're slowly slowly slowly slowly
67:00 - 67:30 slowly increasing the dividend because they're playing a different game than what SoFi is playing they are they are now one of the most expensive companies in the entire world in terms of market cap not valuation okay and so they need every new dollar that they can possibly get they are now facing the the the Warren Buffett problem okay Warren Buffett can no longer just buy any company that he wants because he needs material change so he's really looking at like 30 companies that he can buy that will make material change in his
67:30 - 68:00 portfolio because it's just too big okay however this is the same for Nvidia nvidia is looking for inflows from customers and there's just not enough if you're to say okay well we we are seeing a lot of inflows from investors in the semiconductor space well that's not enough that's not We're looking for trillions and there's potential trillions there but there's also a lot of companies to go around okay well what about the just general growth investors okay well we can probably try to uh grab
68:00 - 68:30 them too because our overall growth is amazing can we get the value investors can we get the dividend investors how can we go ahead and expand our market share and get people to look at our business and and it's not just like you're you're going to trick somebody that's looking for a 6% yield and go "Oh div uh Nvidia offers a penny per share does that entice you?" No it's about getting the ETF the the fund managers to be able to in invest in your stock okay
68:30 - 69:00 so I literally sat down with a Fidelity portfolio manager back whenever I was a financial adviser and I said you know one of your largest companies in your value like fund is Nvidia i was like in what world is this a value company this is like this is a pure tech growth play and he said no they pay a dividend it's one of our top value stocks it's not really but they're just looking for sheer outperformance in businesses and
69:00 - 69:30 the objective of the the objectives of the fund which is something that they cannot break okay so if you're setting these regulated ETFs and you're saying "Hey we invest in dividend growth companies." Good luck putting a company on that list that does not offer a dividend so they put a penny of dividend on that thing so then they can go to regulators and say "Hey we are investing in Nvidia they offer a dividend look at our perspectus." So Nvidia is playing a different game than what SoFi is going to play there's
69:30 - 70:00 no amount of like like the amount of companies that are looking at financial companies they can now buy SoFi and maybe before they couldn't buy an unprofitable SoFi because maybe one of their objectives was hey we need a profitable company hey we need actual regulated banks like there there are some objectives like this sofi passes those however uh for a dividend thing we don't even need them yet because SoFi is not large enough to need the inflows from other types of investors and you
70:00 - 70:30 would say "Oh well wouldn't you love inflows from all investors?" Yeah but they still look at valuation it's not like we can just pump the stock up to a bazillion dollars while still making a couple hundred million each quarter doesn't work like that so it's only whenever the company starts to get cheap based on you know a certain amount of inflow is actually stopping it from getting a better uh a better valuation
70:30 - 71:00 okay let's see here i don't know that company what's your expectation on target value tomorrow what do you what you mean in terms of where I think the price will
71:00 - 71:30 go target value i don't know am I supposed to know this i don't know what the stock price is going to get to no clue i don't invest like that i look at the financials i look at the company as uh you know cheap
71:30 - 72:00 but I hope it goes up but I don't make calls on that i'm not a a trader or try to predict markets at all i think they're going to have great earnings i don't know what the stock will do over time I think that the stock will do great that's what I'm betting
72:00 - 72:30 on like for example just to show you guys how much like I I was talking to Emit the other day i go "Yeah some days I don't check my portfolio." We haven't even looked at stocks yet i'm just talking to you guys about the way that I've invested i haven't even looked at a chart i don't even know what the price of SoFi closed at today this is the type of uh investor he go he goes "Oh no i mean everyone says that you're bullshitting me." I'm like "I'm not bullshitting you this is it." Have we looked at a chart one time i just pulled
72:30 - 73:00 it up they closed at $13.20 great day love it going bullish into earnings potentially turning actually in uh after hours here but not by much $13.18 now in the last uh 5 days or even a
73:00 - 73:30 month up 16 16.6% still down over the last three months hitting a high of $1842 but yeah this is a long-term game that's how I like to look at
73:30 - 74:00 it do I do long-term projections for for companies like stock prices i'm sure I do um not like I write them down but I think oh you know holding out this type of compounded annual growth rates looking at comparable more mature companies that the market cap that they can continue to grow at they could hold this type of valuation that's how I'd look at it but I'm not like oh another thing that I don't look at is people go okay well
74:00 - 74:30 what's your exit price well it depends like if SoFi gets to 30 tomorrow yeah that's my exit price but if SoFi gets to 30 two years from now is that my exit price well I mean how good is the business two years from now like so I'm just always reiterating my positions to say is it overvalued or undervalued well SoFi looks undervalued okay so I'll continue to hold is it so undervalued that I'll I'll buy more meaning there's
74:30 - 75:00 not other companies in my portfolio that I you know not want to invest this new capital into yeah then I'll buy more right now the company that I'm heavily investing in right now is Nvidia with new capital how could you sell at 30 if you haven't seen the earnings yet exactly but if you mean tomorrow's earnings it's not I promise you it's not going to justify
75:00 - 75:30 $30 one thing that SoFi does that not other businesses do is they're almost like they're extremely linear so they're not going to have some breakout earnings that we're not expecting they're not going to show $2 billion of revenue you know they're going to show somewhere in the ballpark of like uh what is it 8 to 900 million something like that if you want to get really bullish I have them down at 790 they're not going to be anywhere between or outside of 7 to 900 million i can
75:30 - 76:00 guarantee that palanteer and Sofi were my dingy boats in the storm they definitely were they were tiny pups during uh 2022
76:00 - 76:30 um okay ladies and gentlemen thank you all so much for watching though i got to share you with you guys for about an hour or so uh some of my thoughts on SoFi if you guys have any other remaining questions anything like this we can then you know do a follow-up Q&A maybe we'll do a follow-up Q&A with Robin Hood um or other companies that we're looking at going forward but um thank you i really did appreciate this this uh live stream had
76:30 - 77:00 a lot of fun bye bye for now subscribe maybe