"Tariff's are the Smoke Screen for the Real Story!" "for April 1 ,2025

Summary

Highlights

• Tariffs are the noisy part of the broader global trade restructuring 🌐
• Donald Trump uses tariffs as a smokescreen for larger strategic goals 🎩🎭
• Markets may face a decline, but artificial intelligence and tech advancements could help stabilize them 🤖📊
• There's potential for a major market correction; stay cautious and prepared ⚠️📉
• Watch for upcoming massive investment inflows around 2026-2027 as a rebound tactic 💸⏳

Key Takeaways

• Tariffs are just a distraction; the real game is the restructuring of global trade 🌍
• Donald Trump's policies are aimed at rebalancing trade, not just imposing tariffs 🇺🇸🤝
• The current market situation may lead to a significant decline, but it's also an opportunity 📉💼
• Trump's administration is prepping for a massive investment boom in the coming years 🚀💰
• Investors need to focus on the bigger picture of world trade changes, not just tariffs 🔍🌐

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Overview The introductory chapter provides an overview of strategies for managing portfolios and wealth protection, drawing on five years of experience. It encourages interaction by suggesting viewers subscribe, like, and share the content. The focus is on a long-term economic perspective as quarter two approaches, discussing strategic approaches beyond just tariffs.
• 00:30 - 01:00: Upcoming Video Schedule The speaker plans to continue hosting sessions on Tuesdays for the foreseeable future. The current session has a lot to cover, and although there is fatigue surrounding the topic of tariffs, it remains a subject of interest.
• 01:00 - 02:00: Tariffs as a Smoke Screen The chapter discusses the idea that tariffs, particularly those proposed or implemented by Donald J. Trump, act as a diversion rather than a genuine economic strategy. The speaker suggests that tariffs are designed to create noise and confusion, serving as a smokescreen. It is hinted that Trump's real intentions and strategies lie behind this smokescreen, and the tariffs might be a deliberate distraction from his actual plans. The chapter implies that understanding Trump's approach requires looking beyond the obvious and questioning the apparent motives behind such economic decisions.
• 02:00 - 03:00: Impact of Trade Restructuring The chapter discusses the impact of trade restructuring with a focus on tariffs and their inflationary effects. The speaker draws attention to the importance of understanding the implications of these tariffs rather than ignoring them. There is a brief mention of the market's dialogue around these issues, hinting at how trading is adapting to these changes.
• 03:00 - 04:00: Predictions and Market Analysis This chapter discusses the broader economic implications beyond the immediate impact of tariffs, emphasizing a global trade rebalancing. The narrative implies that the shifts in trade policies are part of a larger economic strategy. The speaker also shares personal research experiences and highlights the use of AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude in their analytical processes, suggesting an integration of technology in understanding market trends and formulating predictions.
• 04:00 - 05:00: Economic Risks and Concerns The chapter discusses the challenges and complexities in obtaining unbiased information and answers, especially regarding societal questions. It touches on the bias present in responses from certain entities. Additionally, it explores the economic implications and potential risks involved when a major corporation like General Electric undergoes significant restructuring. There is a mention of former President Trump applying business strategies in governance, implying a parallel in handling large-scale restructuring.
• 05:00 - 06:00: Recommended Watch: All-In Podcast The chapter discusses the potential restructuring of the United States and the global trading system. The speaker implies that the current system is large and complex, and suggests that it is biased against the US. The speaker expresses a strong opinion, indicating that they could talk extensively on the topic, hinting at dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs.
• 06:00 - 07:00: Market Trends and Predictions In the chapter titled 'Market Trends and Predictions,' there is a discussion on geopolitical actions, particularly focusing on the influence of former President Trump's strategies. The chapter reveals concerns about potential risks associated with these strategies, suggesting that they could lead to significant disruptions or 'break' something important in the global market landscape. The conversation seems to revolve around anxieties about the future impact of such political maneuvers on market trends.
• 07:00 - 08:00: Stock Market Analysis and Subscription Promotion The chapter revolves around a discussion on stock market analysis with a focus on tariffs. The speaker shares observations from a segment by Charles Payne, noting that he appears to downplay the impact of tariffs on the market. According to the speaker, Payne seems to invite guests who reinforce his view that tariffs are inconsequential and everything is fine, contrasting with the perception that tariffs might have significant market implications.
• 08:00 - 09:00: Weekly and Quarterly Trends in the Market The chapter discusses the restructuring of trade and its impact on markets, reflecting on historical perspectives over the past 45 years. It highlights how current trends signify significant changes in market dynamics.
• 09:00 - 10:00: Potential for Global Trade Adjustments The chapter discusses predictions for a significant decline in the markets for the current year, highlighting the distractions and incomplete research faced by the speaker. It references past market performance, specifically a 52.5% compounded rate of return based on the S&P for the years 2023 and 2024.
• 10:00 - 11:00: Interest Rates and Bond Market Implications The chapter discusses the implications of interest rates on the bond market, referencing an expectation of a corrective year. The speaker mentions optimism about AI boosting productivity, emphasizing a shift into a new era involving a global trade rebalancing.
• 11:00 - 12:00: Final Thoughts and Future Discussion Topics The chapter discusses the anticipation of an announcement by Trump regarding tariffs in a conference call scheduled for the following day at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The speaker contemplates delaying a video release until more information is available, but ultimately decides to proceed. The discussion highlights the concept of 'reverse fundamentals' and notes that the current technical aspects of the market do not appear to be problematic.
• 12:00 - 13:00: Closing Remarks and Subscription Details In this chapter, the focus is on a projected significant disruption within the system, which is neither related to tariffs nor taxes. The speaker mentions big numbers and intends to elaborate on these projections shortly. The chapter sets the stage for understanding the nature of the impending changes affecting the system.

"Tariff's are the Smoke Screen for the Real Story!" "for April 1 ,2025 Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 five years of experience to help you manage your portfolios and protect your wealth remember to subscribe like and share these videos in tonight's video I'm going to go through a long-term overview of what I think's happening as we come into Q2 also we're going to talk about not tariffs but the real strategy let's get into tonight's video [Music]
• 00:30 - 01:00 okay folks welcome to I'm going to continue to do these on Tuesday this looks like it's going to be a doable situation for a while here so welcome there's a lot to talk about tonight i you know I think we're probably all tired as we could be of hearing about tariffs right and it's it's interesting i'm going to make a
• 01:00 - 01:30 couple recommendations for you folks and then maybe uh this will help you uh comment on this video when when you get a chance to digest some of the stuff I'm going to talk about tonight but the uh I believe tariffs are just the noise if you know who we're dealing with which is the uh Donald J trump he never is going to tell you exactly what he's doing he's going to have the smoke screen and then look behind the
• 01:30 - 02:00 uh you know the the behind the the curtain I guess so to speak and you know I always talk about don't pay attention to the man behind the curtain i want you to pay attention to the man behind the curtain let's um one of the things that I think everybody is focused in on these tariffs and they're going to be inflationary it's the big dialogue in the markets right but then you see how we're trading and I'll go into that tie
• 02:00 - 02:30 all this together as we go through this video tonight but the the the bottom line is is that the tariffs aren't the the real thing that's going on here it's really the rebalancing of trade on the planet and I was trying to do some some research it was kind of interesting if you use any of the uh and I'm I use chat and claude quite actively uh in a lot of things that I do around here and if you
• 02:30 - 03:00 ask them questions that are uh society based or questions that you would like real answers to you're never going to get them there right they they're just so biased in their their response but one of the things I was trying to research here is what happens when you do a big major restructuring of a giant maybe like a GE like we watched that disaster for many years uh what I I think what Trump is doing is applying a lot of business strategies into
• 03:00 - 03:30 restructuring not just the United States but the entire world trading system and that's that's saying something if you think about it it's the world the only world we know right it's very big and as an American I would say it's been very biased against the US and and the US i I could go on i could do a whole show just on on that i'm I'm not sure that I'm that happy with a lot of
• 03:30 - 04:00 things that we've done if we look in the rearview mirror on a geopolitical level but the the point is is that what's happening right now Trump is forcing everybody's hand right now and I've said this in private conversations with people that I that I know well is that my biggest concern is that they're going to break something and I think uh I think there's some some risk in this strategy but I think more
• 04:00 - 04:30 importantly everybody I I watched um Charles Payne uh for about 15 minutes this this morning and it was interesting because he he brought one guest after a guest tariffs aren't a problem uh he he's got a bias and he all he wants to do is say "Okay these tariffs are nothing everything's okay market's going to come back blah blah blah and and the realities are is that the the tariffs
• 04:30 - 05:00 like I'm trying to tell you aren't what's really happening it's the restructuring of how trade is going to happen i remember when the I'm old enough to remember you know literally 50 years ago and more importantly you know I've been in the markets for 45 years so I've been paying attention at a reasonable level for a long time and what we're seeing here is actually uh something pretty phenomenal and my
• 05:00 - 05:30 thoughts on this right now are is that we're going to see a fairly major decline in the markets this year and there was a couple things I wanted to research and and do um before I got here i had some distractions this afternoon didn't get to everything but if you if you look at what we've had in the last two years we had a 52.5 compounded rate of return bases the S&P on on the markets for 23 and 24 so
• 05:30 - 06:00 we come into 25 if you look at my annual report my expectation is that we will have a corrective year of some sort i've still been big on AI you know boosting productivity all that stuff but what we didn't know is that we're coming into this new era which is going to be a rebalancing of all trade on the planet
• 06:00 - 06:30 that's what starts in the morning but and in fact I almost held off doing this video until after Trump presents uh what the tariffs are going to look like in his conference call that he's doing tomorrow i think it's at 300 p p.m eastern but uh just looking at what's going on here i'm just giving you folks uh a warning i I don't have and those of you who've been around my channel for a while I always talk about this reverse fundamentals right now the the technicals don't look that bad they look
• 06:30 - 07:00 like stable except for there there is an element here that is projecting down some some fairly big numbers and I'll I'll try to go through the these the best I can here in a few minutes but I just want to get this set up that what we're really looking at here is a major disruption of the system not tariffs not taxes not any of this stuff uh you know I've been like I
• 07:00 - 07:30 said I've been around long enough i've never seen anything like this and we don't even know what we're looking at yet and this is the funny part of everything and I mentioned this in the Substack post a couple days ago is that people are talking about the effects of the tariffs and there aren't any you know there's some tariffs with you know with China that were already there there was tariffs with the Mexico and Canada but none of these are in effect it's going to take months and
• 07:30 - 08:00 months on end to find out what the effects of the tariffs are and what I want to focus in on is the bigger picture which is is this restructuring of world trade i think this disrupts a lot of things um that is going to take longer than anyone expects to do this uh this transition i do want to recommend two videos it's going to take about two hours of your life you don't have to
• 08:00 - 08:30 watch them all but there's some uh really good stuff the All-In podcast um and we're looking at um bear with me one second here all-in podcast you had Howard Lutnik and if I would have pursued pursued my passion back in the uh late 80s uh I would have ended up working for Howard and I would have been in that tower on 911 i can tell you absolutely i I used to have a institutional newsletter and I was
• 08:30 - 09:00 really pushing some guys there at Caner uh to get to get this thing into their shop and one of the guys kept going "Bob you need to come here you would be awesome to be to work here." And I was like I'm like telling my my wife at the time like we're going to Connecticut i'm going to go to New York uh Howard is an amazing guy and I've I've watched him i mean what he's done is absolutely amazing but I want you to watch the
• 09:00 - 09:30 podcast with the Allman podcast with Howard Ludnik and then also they did another one with Scott Preset who is a secretary of treasur now these are market guys that are in in there right now and it was kind of interesting i just I should have I really should do one of those uh videos where I let him talk and respond i may try to do something like that that haven't done it in the past but I just want you to watch that because they are telling you those are the spokes people that are telling
• 09:30 - 10:00 you what's really happening and they're not talking uh Lutnik is not talking about tariffs he's talking about tariffs but he's talking about what their goals are what they're planning to do restructuring on the back end and Scott Breit the same way and these are these are guys it's interesting because Brezite worked for uh Soros and um uh o over the years he's a trader uh you know Lucknik is a a master of a lot of skills
• 10:00 - 10:30 and we've got probably one of the most interesting you can disagree with me probably one of the most interesting and qualified cabinets we've ever seen uh especially on the financial side and so I want you to pay attention to this because you know a lot of times we get to the point where we don't pay attention to what is right in front of us and what's right in front of us right now is that this u this big change is coming i listen I
• 10:30 - 11:00 don't know nobody knows what it looks like i see jokers like Ray Deio who I used to respect he's nothing more than a representative of the WF he's running around talking to Democrats and stuff trump's not inviting that guy in i'd be shocked if he gets in front of Trump at all um this guy is a major advocate Davos um and I just don't see him bringing any value whatsoever and you
• 11:00 - 11:30 know he's of course stuck in this 100 years debt cycle all that i do think we're at a point where we have to do this i think this is the moment in time in history where drastic actions need to be taken i know I'm going off a little bit on this uh right now but I just stay with me for a couple more minutes because um going through all the charts you see gold is spiking and I'll cover gold tonight because I think gold's very
• 11:30 - 12:00 close to a pretty major top coming in here i know everybody's like talking crazy numbers but that's usually when the top comes in but this restructuring is what I want you folks pay attention so if you will uh check out both of those I'll try to put those links in the description in the video it'll probably be about an hour after I get this posted and everything but I'll put that links to that those uh YouTube videos in the
• 12:00 - 12:30 description so that you can find them so you don't have to look them up but they're pretty easy to find i had quite a few views but the uh but I'll I'll try to get stuck out of this loop i'm just looking at some of some of this uh some of my notes here but I I think that uh folks focused on the tariffs are not going to be the thing because even when they come in effect tomorrow you're not going to know uh the other thing just real quick uh Trump has gotten investments of close to $4
• 12:30 - 13:00 trillion promised and these aren't going to happen until 26 27 so it's going to be interesting there's so much in front of us that can go wrong right now there's so many places to break if they don't get the uh tax 2017 tax uh laws extended then you're going to have the largest tax increase in the history of the country that's not going to be pretty notice that um u the Biden
• 13:00 - 13:30 administration never even touched that uh they ran the whole time on the Trump tax uh you know and that that's just not going to um that's not going to change i hope if it does then all bets are off and the market will be down a lot more than 20 or 40% yeah um yeah I see somebody talking about the the 30s that's not the look
• 13:30 - 14:00 back point because uh they made a lot of points with a lot of mistakes with tariffs in the 30s you actually want to go back and this is you want to go back to Mckenley and you want to go back to 1880s up to you know right up to World War I uh that was where tariffs were the most effective and of course you know this is a problem folks i try not to look back in the rearview mirror notice I I really not referencing those type of points because America is not the same
• 14:00 - 14:30 place the planet is not the same place we had no way to move assets digitally everything's different so you can't look in the rearview mirror i always say uh you know if you try to invest looking in the rearview mirror it works great until you hit a corner you just go right off the edge you need to look forward and the forward looking is that this restructuring I don't think anybody maybe somebody will get it right i'm sure they will i'm not predicting what it's going to look like but what I am
• 14:30 - 15:00 predicting is that there is going to be massive change and change uh my first firm that I I work for in this business was their slogan was change equals opportunity and I believe that is the case we've got we've got a whole new era that we're about to roll into and do you have to kill off you have to cut off arms to fix the old one i think probably so i I think this is major surgery necessary and where we are right now i
• 15:00 - 15:30 mean we've just got I mean this uh the last last part of this and I'll get into markets and focus here but the last part is that we're one of the things that Doge has done as and it's not just the US it's everywhere and it's the states too is they they've exposed all of the governments as fraudulent entities so people are losing confidence i I mentioned this in in one of my Substack
• 15:30 - 16:00 letters is if I I did some research if 10% of the people that are supposed to pay taxes don't pay that's bad that's actually a reset button if 20% goes it disrupts the whole system so there are a lot of people uh two twofold i' I've actually talked to some uh CPAs i've talked to my CPA i have talked to some other folks and they are hearing a lot
• 16:00 - 16:30 of this noise do people follow through i don't know so there we're around the corner from potentially all kinds of uh big big stories to come out that's not being talked about and I I think the mainstream media might be afraid to bring that one up that is a scary one in a lot of ways but it it's going to be uh it's going to get interesting okay so let's get into uh talking about markets and uh stuff that we normally do here i
• 16:30 - 17:00 needed to get that out just because I think uh it's going to bring in a perspective of what what I think what I think's going on here so let me u let me get set here and bring up some charts well we're going to go ahead and start with the uh S&P we're going to go long term here and um yeah I'm just Yeah I think
• 17:00 - 17:30 uh alter that that's completely incorrect actually what you say there that you have to remember uh anyway we won't get we won't get on that but that that's probably pretty inaccurate um but the uh let's go ahead and let's get into the church i'm going to start
• 17:30 - 18:00 with let's go ahead and let me get over here okay so I've got the monthly graph up and I've got some notes here that I need to share with you so let's There's some interesting uh things going on here i might have to go back to weekly i'm just trying to find a
• 18:00 - 18:30 reference point now if we look at the weekly chart we see the AOS are all suggesting that we're going to rebound into miday and that may be the case uh maybe all this tariff noise which I think is noise uh dissipates and we see some recovery but we're going to have a lot of obstacles in the way from a resistance standpoint
• 18:30 - 19:00 so if I if I just bring up uh this chart here you can see we've got the the the red dot indicator is is suggesting maybe we get a 40 to 60% typical Fibonacci kind of retracement but this is what I I I want to bring up here and I've I've done some estimates on the recovery so I'm not saying we're going to roll over go straight down in fact we've got a
• 19:00 - 19:30 decent reversal started uh as we come into this week right so we've seen a couple things on daily activity we've seen the markets sell off it looks like okay we're going to go negative in that last hour the stampede comes back in and they bid the market back up so let's take a look at at this this right here i'm going to draw in this pattern which I I think is going to be important to to keep an eye
• 19:30 - 20:00 on all right so we get this decline it was a a 10enter this is what's being projected to come back in here and then my I'm going to talk about
• 20:00 - 20:30 actually let me back this up i'll draw this and then I'll discuss it with you so be patient tonight folks so uh this next level down we have not seen any type of u you have to go back to 22 where we had a a decent correction you get 23 and
• 20:30 - 21:00 everybody believed that 20 was going if you go to January 24 and look at market sentiment what was being thrown out there everybody was bearish we're going to have a down year after the big up year bob was saying we're going to have two back-to-back doubledigit years which we did and in fact we did 50 52% gain and I'll try to get some numbers up uh after this video tonight and I'll try to expand some of this stuff that will come out of this
• 21:00 - 21:30 analysis and put it into Substack if you're not getting the Substack it's kendlerreport.substack.com it's eight bucks a month you get a 7-day trial and for a year you can pay 80 bucks i think it's 665 per so sign up there do a lot of a lot of work it usually comes out uh between 5 and 6 a.m uh New York time about 3 hours before the the
• 21:30 - 22:00 open so but this is what I want to talk to you about there's three uh uh potential possibilities here and we don't have anything official coming out of the logic you see these these green lines up here these are Fibonacci targets that come out of the wave tech Fibonacci indicator that that's on here we don't have any downside projections yet but I believe we'll we'll start to get some some projections in here so the
• 22:00 - 22:30 first one is I I'm going to draw these uh draw these in but I think the first first level here is going to be and I I'll put the numbers up here uh 48 I'm just looking at yeah uh 4830 we'll call it is going to be target one and I the expectation is that we get back to around 5800 on the upside
• 22:30 - 23:00 where we're right now 5667 so we run back towards the 5800 we get a rejection out of that area and from there then we start this next sequence down and I think uh it's going to be fairly brutal i don't know what the news is going to be right now obviously someone will come back oh you said it was going to go down and it didn't go down i'll update this uh but this is what what's coming out and right now like I said I usually do the reverse
• 23:00 - 23:30 fundamentals i the Is there anything that could cause this to happen absolutely we've got a complete restructuring of the system of uh trade on the planet we've got tariffs we got all kinds of noise out there that's going you got judges trying to block anything from happening uh it's it's bizarre uh the world we live in but this next three targets is going to be uh
• 23:30 - 24:00 4836 i'm just looking at these numbers i'm going to I'm going to completely mess you guys up now because I didn't read my numbers right so the uh the first target is 5112 okay so that would be target one let me let me reverse this here i am so sorry uh yeah that would still be about the same mark so
• 24:00 - 24:30 5112 and then the next target down will be um a range of towards 4836 and the extreme is going to be 4700 4700 is going to put us below the 200 week moving average here so basically what I'm telling you is we're probably going to move down uh toward a move to
• 24:30 - 25:00 the 200 week moving average and that's likely and that's not going to happen overnight that's probably into Q3 one of the things that I've been uh talking about for a while is that I believe we're going to get I'm in the recession camp uh those of you who followed me for a couple years when everybody was in recession camp I haven't been there's a lot of people in the recession camp now u most of them are just uh jumping on
• 25:00 - 25:30 the bandwagon at the moment but I do see some softness coming in and I I think the markets are going to start to to tell us that's what market participants are seeing as well and I I don't see you know any time uh new highs into play or anything like that so let's uh talk about one more event now this is the uh S&P we're looking at cash numbers here but I want
• 25:30 - 26:00 to the reason why I brought this up is I want to go to a quarterly chart and this this quarterly chart is uh very interesting see what we can get over here yeah so all of the AOS on the quarterly bring this over so you can see a little bit all the all goes on the quarterly are turning down or suggesting
• 26:00 - 26:30 we will turn down the other thing that happened is we got an outside uh outside reversal on on the futures we got the reversal let me just check a number here yeah so we got an outside reversal on cash as well and typically when you get an outside those of you that know the three-day or the three bar trade once you get a reversal then there's a couple events that have to happen on on the next one is I'm just looking at numbers here yeah so we'd have to take
• 26:30 - 27:00 out January uh not January March's the first quarter's low which would be March's low which would be uh 54.88 so all we have to do this month is we have to do two things we have to make a lower low and close lower but what this really is telling us that we have the potential for three quarters down and my minimal target here is for the 21 quarter to be a moving average to be hit
• 27:00 - 27:30 and that's at 451 so that goes hand inand with toward that 40 we're we're going to call the target range 5112 to 40 uh 4745 on this next sequence down now we still have some slight upward bias but this is going to change very very quickly and the last time we had one of those was right before the the 22
• 27:30 - 28:00 decline we had let me just blow this up so you can see it here uh we uh on the we got it on the futures but we got this three quarters down that was in uh 2022 and that was the thrust the most of the decline happened in that first uh three quarters so we got into uh year-end rally if you remember in 202 we bottomed in October uh that was when our database came on big time got some
• 28:00 - 28:30 material action and we ended up with a a two-year rally now we've got to consolidate that we don't have to have a a big necessarily big correction but if we just look at the 10 quarter moving average here 50 uh 5122 what was the range 5112 to 4745 so all we're looking at sounds like
• 28:30 - 29:00 a big number I'm talking about on this chart here we're looking at a move down to the 10 period moving average in this pattern so um just looking at a couple of comments here yeah I mean if we got 47 you you got to be all over this thing buying it uh but here here's the thing folks i think that you know these numbers in the
• 29:00 - 29:30 future what we have to do is walk forward see what kind of we're going to find out what tariffs mean we're going to find out what the reorganization of the trade system looks like we're going to see a lot of things um how aggressive does the US get about the whole Greenland thing right uh is the Panama Canal thing uh still a thing is Canada a thing i don't know how far
• 29:30 - 30:00 this this is going to be played out or what's what's real and what's memor all we're looking at is back to trend on the 10 uh 10 period moving average and if we look at the AOS here we're still looking at massive upward momentum but it does suggest as we come into the second the end of the second quarter that this uh the projections on the algorithms are
• 30:00 - 30:30 telling us that we're going to break down on that second quarter so if we get three quarters this is an instant replay of 22 and some from that standpoint is that we get the big reversal in Q1 we're going to rebound probably back 40 50% of that decline and then we get a rejection we make a new low and then the next quarter that's what the August are suggesting this is going to be what we're going to be watching for and see
• 30:30 - 31:00 if we get markers that confirm what we're what the analysis is telling us so rather than going you know we're in a recession we're going to that number what we're wanting to do is walk forward step by step and like I said my plan is to do this weekly video every week yeah the moving average on the quarterly is uh is uh actually very big so you can
• 31:00 - 31:30 see uh this has been this has been the primary trend all the way through and the 21's really the the big number if you look here we go all the way back to um 2013 uh and the 21 only once have we spiked below there the lows i remember raving about this in 2020 and April of 2020 in the pandemic this was one of the
• 31:30 - 32:00 key points and one of the levels where our models started to come in in March and April of 2020 buying literally 10,000 stocks or something in that period and everybody thought it was crazy i was being told that the markets are going to climb we're going to a new low and the end of the world was here and it wasn't uh but this 21 quarter moving average is big the 10 is it needs to be respected we
• 32:00 - 32:30 could get a bounce off of that rally back and then uh a move through but this this is long-term analysis by the way uh if you look at the crossover in the red dots we're talking October of 26 here so one bar is three months so this is this is a a stepping back we're at 100,000 ft uh view not 30,000 this is 100,000 so this this moves a lot slower but the the
• 32:30 - 33:00 numbers usually play out pretty good yeah i mean any anything's possible here if this if this system breaks um there's so many things i I'll just not going to go too deep in this if we were doing a three-hour live stream I'd go off on another rant right now but the the bottom line is there there is going to be a major adjustment here and I had
• 33:00 - 33:30 projected that uh AI I'll do quotes air quotes was going to save the world and productivity was going to go up i still think that is uh the possibility i think robotics are going to be uh playing in big time in the next couple years but from a financial from looking at companies there just so much to consider here there's going to have to be a rethinking going forward and
• 33:30 - 34:00 whether that's mean if that rethinking equals a big decline or not that that's hard to call uh but I'm saying right now at least down to that 40 we'll call it 51 51 4,800 4750 we'll call that as a range right now yeah well I'm working on the Bobbot by the way
• 34:00 - 34:30 uh yeah thank Thanks sir uh stock market show appreciate that yeah um I I really I just kind of want to pause here for just a second and then we'll go on and we'll we'll I'm going to run through what time we got here about third halfway through so yeah I just want want to pause for a second here because nobody know if I'm not going to
• 34:30 - 35:00 sit here and tell you I know what's going to happen these are what the technicals look like i can formulate some kind of scenario around what's going on technically looking doing the reverse fundamental is there anything that could get us to I mean 4700 is a joke okay after where we've been right and it was interesting because I talked about it a couple years ago that the targets were uh if we go back to monthly
• 35:00 - 35:30 I'll bring this up on another screen I'll show you here in a minute but the uh the monthly target yeah let let me just uh go back to that the monthly target here going back to April of 23 i remember talking about these Fibonacci where the monthly target was was uh 6,100 actually it was 6118 and the high ended up to be uh 6128
• 35:30 - 36:00 and that that was two years in advance so we satisfied at least that minimum Fibonacci the patterns that are flowing out of the algorithms are showing that you know there's a correction maybe a re reump resumption excuse me uh re resumption to the
• 36:00 - 36:30 upside and then this may end up actually being just a complete sideways type movement here let me draw this in real quick yeah so you can see what's being forecasted here uh using the moving averages this is the this is the big wedge so easily we could we could get
• 36:30 - 37:00 some kind of formation like this by the way just so you can have a reference right here's first quarter of 28 so that's way that's two years out to to do that so this is going to be this is my point here folks this is going to be like watching paint dry this this formation when you
• 37:00 - 37:30 go out and go 100,000 feet up and look at a chart like this that everything's going to move very slow but this is most likely there it doesn't look like the runaway bull market is going to continue in fact if you we go back to the 2020 situation this is probably a very climactic period this is a time of readjustment and that's really what I'm talking about here you you know so we're not really uh talking about any kind of
• 37:30 - 38:00 uh resumption we're going to go up to new highs there's no no excitement coming it's going to be you're the only people that are going to do well during this period of time are the ones that understand um stock selection uh flowing uh through sectors um I hate to say it but all the ETF folks there's uh most and I know there's folks that watch this or customers or mine but most folks doing
• 38:00 - 38:30 ETFs you ain't making any money and most of them missed out on the big returns of the last two years most of them are lucky if they made 22 24% in a 52% market they're lucky they caught half of the returns and um so but anytime you go to indexing and doing those type of things you're probably especially when you're doing ETFs and trying to segment and doing a
• 38:30 - 39:00 pie chart you're not going to end up doing well so here's what we're going to do the rest of the show we got about 20 minutes to go i'll go through I I'll bring up u I am going to bring up a screen here let me see if I can bring this up yeah let's go ahead and bring this up so this is a short term i ran one of the data sheets i haven't run all the
• 39:00 - 39:30 sheets yet but this is the e E- mini sheet here and let me see if I can make this just a touch bigger there we go so uh this is what I ran right now it's kind of a neutral day on the markets uh we were just positive we're back down 775 i got to tell you folks if you're not if you're day trading you're not making a lot of money right now i I mean this is one of the best
• 39:30 - 40:00 trading markets I've seen in a while they literally are flowing 20 and 30 handles from the low uh we were probably about an hour and a half out we rallied 40 handles today i mean this is and it was like one of the cleanest uh 40 handle rally everything was perfect in that rally so hopefully you guys are catching these things if you don't have the indicators get them go to um
• 40:00 - 40:30 www.kendler.comindicators or you can go into the description once I get this reposted there's a link in there to get to all of our products but this the the bottom line is you should be catching this so here's a uh here's a synopsis here on this page i'll read it to you i know it's pretty small positive action key insights so this sheet here comes out of uh take the data from the indicators there is I have built an
• 40:30 - 41:00 algorithm with probabilities actually over the last three months uh this is going to be a product that you're going to be able to put any any information in any stock any index and it's going to throw out this sheet and right now it's for daily i actually tried trading off of this doing five uh 15minute and 30 minute charts uh the problem is is that these uh these platforms have um they
• 41:00 - 41:30 you start to get into these long chats and anyway it was able to do a pretty good job at predicting in increments of blocks of time so this sheet right now I put out as a daily in my substack it's just a screenshot this is the screenshot that will be in in tonight's but the bottom line gives us the probabilities of uh where we're going to be uh 5702 right now is the u uh R1 and we're
• 41:30 - 42:00 looking at R uh we're looking at R1 there's actually an error i'm going to have to fix that but it should be uh S1 R2 and R2 is right now at 5735 so that's a pretty good rally that's 60 70 points from here the um the configuration is neutral at at the moment so let's go back go back over to the charts here all right so let's uh
• 42:00 - 42:30 let's move on and let's go to ES at the here and let's go to a a daily chart so I'll just go through some roll for the rest 15 minutes or so on some analysis there's something I I want to point out and I I'm sure this will be in the substack tonight but if you notice if you notice right here there's
• 42:30 - 43:00 three dots down here so the wave tech Fibonacci pattern finder actually has projected three new moves down 5180 5928 and 47 this off a daily so it's suggesting we're going to roll over and hit these targets now they could be an island formation but uh this is what this is what it's looking at right now we're
• 43:00 - 43:30 really there's a couple things and I've been talking about this on Substack and those of you that have the indicators when you see this ppm3 not able to to turn up or get any upward momentum what that tells you is that 40-day moving average is coming down here is going to be one of the primary points to trade off of if the market rallies up to the 40 you're definitely going to be a seller we're not able to get any kind of
• 43:30 - 44:00 uh momentum turn looks like until the end of the month so we're likely to just to stay in this trend here but this new fib targets are significant so it's interesting uh when we look at the u this is the NASDAQ here what we're looking at we we get this first decline down we're probably going
• 44:00 - 44:30 to reject around this 21 and 10day moving average and then we're going to attempt to make a new low now remember on the quarterly at some stage this month we need to make a new low that would be a new low chances are if the NASDAQ's making a new low so is the um so is the um uh so is the S&P so we're looking at some pretty drastic moves down
• 44:30 - 45:00 there's another thing that I want to bring up here that I think is important and this is happening on the S&P as well and I'm going to draw this in but this this is the one of the other significant elements that are out there so if we take a look at the 200 200 moving average this indicator down here is tracking the 200 you can see there's a big acceleration to the downside what
• 45:00 - 45:30 that's telling us is that the 200 is trying to turn down which tell that is a much longer term downward trend that's starting to flow here and this is going to be I think the big story and this is what I've been trying to uh talk to you about is the with the 200 rolling over this is telling you there's something really big
• 45:30 - 46:00 happening we're definitely at an inflection point and if you're uh fantasizing about new highs and all that you might want to work on that one but this this rollover that I'm putting here this is off the daily the same formation is on the S SNP everything is is really about um is unfolding just like
• 46:00 - 46:30 this let's take a I'm just going to bounce over real quick and I want to try to move quickly to get through these markets but you can see here this is the u the weekly we're somewhat at an extreme but these are uh big downward trend numbers ppm one on a weekly on the NASDAQ is 1.1 uh I don't have one available that uh that you can look at but I can tell
• 46:30 - 47:00 you that this is a big number and that downtrend so that 10 week moving average will be similar to the 40day so those of you aren't familiar with my work I use 102140 simple averages but when you go to multi- series so if you look at the longest moving average on daily that's the 40 so 102140 forget the 200 just out of that sequence at the 40 the 40 equals
• 47:00 - 47:30 somewhat to the 10 week and then the same thing on a weekly if you go to the 40 week it's similar to the 10 month and and and both in trend and in price as well so you can correlate top down uh from looking at these charts to get to line them up and you can see where the trend is going but this this rollover on the on the weekly uh we're also seeing weakness coming in if you
• 47:30 - 48:00 look at the very bottom indicator here which is the 200 week moving average the indicator on the 200 week it's starting to roll as well and that's going to suck this is my whole theory is that will bring the markets down from a technical standpoint down to that level the fundamentals driving it will be tariffs restructuring who knows what the hell gets broken uh what kind of what kind of things happen we've already seen you
• 48:00 - 48:30 know a fair amount of terrorism in the US again you know just burning stuff yeah you're talking a guy that watched the uh uh in the late60s grew up I grew up not too far out of Chicago and there were things going on there as a 16-year-old kid it was scaring the hell out of me just you know 30 miles away they were burning the city down it was kind of scary so um but you know America's had these events in the past i guess where I'm trying to get to uh
• 48:30 - 49:00 we're still here but the bottom line is what we're seeing is these trends are starting to roll on a big on a very large scale and you know are we going to go uh uh I saw somebody called a Trump session instead of recession a Trump session i think uh I think they actually want that to happen at a certain degree i think that's what uh if you go back and if you just came in recently what I
• 49:00 - 49:30 was talking about I want you guys if you haven't seen them already in the All-In podcast with the interview with with Howard Lucknik and Scott Preset watch both of those and pay attention because they are telling you exactly what the plan is they were sent out by those podcasts weren't accidental and they were by design and they're telling you exactly what they're going to be doing and it's a big big deal and there's
• 49:30 - 50:00 going and they're even telling you there's probably going to be some pain and you know some pain maybe is like transitory to the Fed right if you remember Powell used that transitory Paul even blew off the what the that the tariff were no big deal i thought that was kind of interesting it's very hard to figure out from the internal we'll call them internal talking heads from the government what's going on when you look at people like Jay Powell but it's
• 50:00 - 50:30 really easy lucknik and Scott Breed are out there constantly and these guys are communicators which are different than you know like watching Grandma Yellen talk to us about from the Treasury and you know and how the Treasury is going to fix global warming uh you know we we're not there anymore right we actually have people that have traded billions and billions of dollars they're market people they understand and I
• 50:30 - 51:00 think they at least think they know what they're doing whether they can achieve what they think they're going to do will be yet another thing sometimes there's a lot of unintended consequences but we are make no mistake at a turning point in uh from a financial standpoint and managing debt and everything else we've known this for years
• 51:00 - 51:30 yeah and uh I think Mick is right i'm just looking at a couple comments here real quick and that's what I've been saying this whole thing these So they're going to tear down the front end of of the u the system as far as imports the the trade they're going to put the tariffs on and then they've got the investments to back it up i mean if these guys are right I mean it's sort of like manipulating the market let's get
• 51:30 - 52:00 the everything cheap and then we'll come in with these $4 trillion worth of of [Music] um $4 trillion of investments to perfect timing in 26 27 and 8 and you got trillions of dollars and I don't think that game's over yet so that's like the rebuilding i I have a project that I talked to a friend of mine who does documentaries about doing a rust belt video i actually got a lot of a lot of
• 52:00 - 52:30 work already done i grew up in northern Indiana and the region as we called it but um that was where US Steel Inland Steel the entire lake shore of Lake Michigan is sitting there if you go to Google Maps and put in Gary Indiana and zoom in by the lake you'll see a wasteland there used to be I think it was about 45 or 50,000 workers in that
• 52:30 - 53:00 area it's complete ready to roll it's got ports it's got railroad tracks it's got land it's got everything and that's the same thing in Ohio Pennsylvania this whole rusfelt thing uh can be redone it's going to be interesting to see who the players are uh by state and who gets very aggressive but the infrastructure is in those areas I just mentioned if you look at uh starting at New York and if you bring up a map on Googles of all
• 53:00 - 53:30 the railroad uh structure in this country everything flows through Chicago and disperses from there you know New York Chicago and then I don't care south everything goes from there it's It's amazing if you get to one of those maps I used to ride into Chicago Board of Trade in the morning from Indiana and we would go on the uh the Amtrak and it would go through these massive switching yards and if
• 53:30 - 54:00 you've never been there you haven't been there but if you see one it's like an ocean of railroad tracks but my point is is that there's infrastructure there so can they pull this off i don't know we'll see uh let's see where we at we got 8 minutes i said I'd cover gold let's go gold next this is a a weekly chart uh I think there's still some upward momentum you
• 54:00 - 54:30 can see let me bring this up so you can see this ago here i think will start to flatten out a little bit here we've been we've been printing up at the upper ends of the market grid level we do have this number up here 3,400 we could go to 3,400 before it tops out you see the AOS are starting to paint in something like this and typically if we start to get a flat
• 54:30 - 55:00 here all this stuff starts to moderate and then these forecasts start to go like this so you'll you'll see so I'm I'm drawing a lot of lines and I'm going to talk about what I'm drawing here so this entire area just boxed out what what's likely to happen in gold we're going to hit an extreme we could print to 3,400 we could be in a runaway right now but the I'll show you the AO
• 55:00 - 55:30 goes here in a minute that's really not what's being forecasted and I think what we see is it starts to stall up here it's been a great run and we're likely to see uh a consolidation and there's an argument for a fifth wave here so I'll talk about this as we get closer if we start to see some of this but target still uh 30 34 uh actually fib target is
• 55:30 - 56:00 3346 to be exact but you can see all the AOS are rolling over into uh mid year and they they look like they want to stay uh negative all the way into a year in so the the curve will start to flatten out we'll see what kind of price action we get but that uh that big number out there is that 30 3346
• 56:00 - 56:30 number i brought up the uh 10ear just real quick i I want to discuss this is I think what we're seeing here on interest rates is we're seeing a flattening out we still have this massive upward range here and I'm going to bring up a chart i
• 56:30 - 57:00 believe I looked at it earlier yeah so what we're looking at when we look at the certainly the daily but the weekly is a lot of noise and you can see this this valuation here i'll try not to get too far down the trail but I do think this is worth talking
• 57:00 - 57:30 about so we'll we'll stick with this this little box area here and then we've got we've got this noise almost like an AB CDE E pattern coming out uh this is probably uh you guys can see this one two this is some kind of three most likely a four ABCDE E could get could be an ABCX ABC could get very complex we've
• 57:30 - 58:00 got these fib targets up here that are interesting and they are suggesting 5.35 6.01 and 6.4 if you I think it was just a couple months the last time we print up to 460
• 58:00 - 58:30 if you turn on listen if you want to be a good analyst turn on CNBC and just fade them right once say you get a consensus they were all talking about we're going to 5% blah blah blah all these uh guys like on fast money pretty much amateur managers that are just very retail type thinkers these guys all were telling you you're going to 5% now there was projections i go huh maybe they're going to be okay we come back in
• 58:30 - 59:00 here now no one's talking about it but this pattern on a monthly that I'm showing you uh this brings in one of Bob Kendall's famous uh quotes which could be all the way back into probably 2016 2017 is that we are one bad bond bond auction away from disaster and if um one of the things that I think Doge has opened up and as far as the uh as things go is they've opened up this potential
• 59:00 - 59:30 lack of confidence in the system if people don't show up at these auctions we still got a lot of money to refinance that I remember when we used to do quarterly refinancing so every three months we would do a big block of auctions on different maturities well that's every week now there's a refunding every week and it it's uh it's massive the amount of money that has to be raised and rolled over and managed
• 59:30 - 60:00 it's it's amazing so one of those events fail and that goes to the next event that said I don't know that last auction wasn't bad so the markets are used to having the treasury auctions go off at a 2.2 2 2.3 plus that coverage otherwise there's 2 230% we'll put it in those terms coverage over what's being offered and
• 60:00 - 60:30 if we came in at 150 that would be bad there's a thing called the tail that's how how aggressive or not aggressive they were during the auction it tells you how tight it was and you see guys like Rick Santelli come up and talk about the auctions well if one of these goes bad and there's a lack of confidence in let's say the the Doge mentality came out that everything's fraudulent and no one wants to put their
• 60:30 - 61:00 money in treasuries i'm not saying that's happening today but if any kind of scare anything like this that would come about this would cause a huge move on these bonds these are fib targets you know is there anything could get them there absolutely this pattern is very very noisy and uh so this is the question I going back on here this is a question that always gets asked in these
• 61:00 - 61:30 patterns is this consolidation or distribution and right now it looks more like consolidation to me there's still potential for higher yields uh down the road um we'll we'll have to see what happens i I'm not making any predictions other than for sure I'll draw a line in here that we're we're we're going to stay in this range and I this is the range I've been talking 460 390 and uh maybe uh here in the future
• 61:30 - 62:00 we'll go through yield curve and some other things that that are happening um yeah i'm just looking at um um yeah uh Shy Town Tony uh that's kind of what I'm I'm saying is that u we have
• 62:00 - 62:30 if if you look at the uh contrast here I'll just come up on screen if you look at the contrast of where we were you had Janet Yellen as a who's never done anything in her life and it was pretty obvious u it's amazing she's the only Fed chair there was no disaster under everybody else never escaped that i could go through it but um but the point is that um Scott Besset and these guys
• 62:30 - 63:00 yeah they could be I think they they want to get interest rates down whatever they can if it means you got to get little recession a little downside uh they maybe they feel like they they can announce all these deals and get some of this investment that they have going to back it up i think that's kind of the plan if you guys go I'll put these links in my uh in the description below once this it t it's going to take me about 30
• 63:00 - 63:30 minutes or so but I'll put in the description so come back to the replay of this live stream and I'll have in that description those allin and you can just go to go watch the all-in interview with Scott Bessett and Howard Lubnik and I think what you'll see there is they're telling you actually just that that they're willing to they're willing to tear down the house to rebuild it rather than remodel they're saying let's
• 63:30 - 64:00 rebuild and I guess that I wish I'd come up with that analogy earlier but that's exactly where we are right now is tear down and rebuild and tear downs can be pretty ugly hopefully nobody gets under the structure when they're tearing it down yeah i mean that will give Yeah uh Tony you're right u the the whole point is
• 64:00 - 64:30 that um they they just don't care um I always say be careful when you get in situations and you're negotiating or dealing with somebody who's got nothing to lose and uh they've got nothing to lose they're they have everything to gain i think the backup investments is where the game is at i don't think it's the Fed this time i don't think I think the Fed's a revival i think I I did a a
• 64:30 - 65:00 Substack a couple weeks ago around the Fed when the Fed was coming out i said "Are they a lame duck?" I think they're complete lame duck i don't think they have anything to do with anything and if Trump gets a shot he'll dismantle the Fed and so uh the point is is that rather than having the Fed create money like they have in the past to micromanage the markets and I've been arguing what for two years that I don't think the Fed is in the business of
• 65:00 - 65:30 micromanaging anymore i think they want out of that business so I don't think they're going to do much of anything but think about it if you got $4 trillion dollars of capital investments in your hand and the economy starts to go down at some stage you just start bringing in these deals boom boom boom and there's a bunch of them that are being proposed and if they don't do them then Trump's going to throw heavy duty tariffs on them so I mean he's got all the weapons uh everybody knows the US uh we're the
• 65:30 - 66:00 biggest consumer in the world the world needs us more than we need them and we could self- sustain but it be a little painful that way but um you know if we have to pay a little bit more for things I I you know we'll see what happens but like I said the the bottom line is that's probably the strategy is to tear down the house and you're going to rebuild it with the new manufacturing all all of that and I I
• 66:00 - 66:30 will say this probably not a lot of folks are willing to go out there on this one but I think that the potential for you've got a lot of folks that came across the border i'm in Arizona right so they come across the border in the last three years four years those folks are perfect for the industrial boom for the workers that we need and all that
• 66:30 - 67:00 stuff so in the end all of that migration might end up playing out and but the bottom line is you know tear down rebuild you've got the money to rebuild you got $4 trillion no one's ever had a war chest of four trillion$4 trillion dollars the Fed threw out money $4 trillion but they didn't create anything imagine when you create something in the longevity and the a business cycle of all those things that happened that is the the big deal right
• 67:00 - 67:30 there and if you have I think Trump's got and the Trump administration the strategy has got it's got the the biggest bet in their hand and that's why they're kind of laughing i think they're laughing if you were to go into a private room that they're laughing at what's going on because they know what they've got they've and they've displayed it but everybody no one pays attention to it everybody's talking about tariffs and inflation and all that
• 67:30 - 68:00 and that was the title of this live stream tonight is that the tariffs are the noise so tear it down rebuild it you already got four trillion in one hand and if that's even looking successful everybody's going to want in on the game that's the bottom line yeah um Ted I've been going for about an hour and getting ready to shut
• 68:00 - 68:30 this thing down i'm running over a little bit but yeah um I looked at the dollar looks still fairly stable uh I'm going to uh cover that in the near future probably next week um yeah um I'm just looking at funny i like that
• 68:30 - 69:00 yeah yeah how will uh US isolation affect the dollar listen the the dollar I'll make a quick comment on that and the dollar is going to be really about the financial stability so that if you go watch the Howard Lucknik interview he said it they're going to cut a trillion he's going to create a trillion trillion to replace the cuts so you take away
• 69:00 - 69:30 expenditures replace it with income it's a double that's a you know that's double jeopardy and they've got four trillion dollars in their hand so I think US dollar is going to be fine going forward you know there's all the talk if you go back in the noise and we look in the rearview mirror people talking about the bricks and the dollar's over and all that stuff it's not and it's probably not going to be
• 69:30 - 70:00 and depending on what happens here as we go forward uh whether they're successful or not it looks like they have all the ingredients to you know rip rip it down they don't care about the markets right now and that's why I think a couple of nights ago I I my title for my substack was you know uh the Trump put has expired and now you now you're looking for a place to put some calls on because once the bottom gets in you just want to put some
• 70:00 - 70:30 long-term calls and hold those for that $4 trillion investment and if they handle that right folks this is way more powerful than the Fed throwing money that's going to create inflation when you can create capital infusion through investment and jobs and longevity of that it's a gamecher and I I think this is a potentially a moment in history that will be one of the biggest events
• 70:30 - 71:00 that happened in uh in history on the planet just because of the reshuffleling and normalization that's necessary i could go on and on i really appreciate um yeah I'm just looking a couple last comments here yeah we'll go through the dollar because there there are some interesting uh
• 71:00 - 71:30 patterns there one of the things just a quick comment on the dollar is that it looks like a potential distribution pattern and there could be a 10 14 plus% decline in the dollar but like I said I you know I think that the biggest play here is that the administration has a $4 trillion they have a $4 trillion dollar u capital investment and they're going to pull that out just at the right time they got all the promises and then they're going to make the phone calls
• 71:30 - 72:00 hey can you go next spring can you go here we got everything lined up they'll start releasing that and that will be way more powerful yeah uh uh catch the won't be able to get through uh Bitcoin tonight i'm going to get off here i've got to move on but the uh bottom line is uh we I'll have Bitcoin out on the u on the Substack here shortly in the
• 72:00 - 72:30 next several hours but I I I do I do believe Bitcoin's in trouble i will tell you that a buddy of mine I'm thinking I'm thinking 50 47,000 U and so I'll leave it at that yeah I think uh this is going to be interesting folks this I'm I'm sorry I could keep going here uh Clive just said
• 72:30 - 73:00 something that I think is weaker dollar means commodities will go up uh for global growth the growth's going to be in the United States that's going to be what's interesting here we'll see how it all plays out but the um um I think what we're looking at is a complete restructuring of everything so the old playbook like dollar down global growth all of these things are probably
• 73:00 - 73:30 going to end up uh a lot of rules are going to get rewritten here folks and that's when you if when you make a a sea change like this everything changes going forward nothing works the way it did before and um so anyway with that note have a great evening i'll see you next Tuesday as always and uh get the Substack if you haven't got it go to kendlerreport.substack.com
• 73:30 - 74:00 $8 a month uh 650 if you do an annual at 80 bucks and then also get the indicators you can go to kendlerreport.com/indicators24 that'll definitely get you there go into the description i'll have all the access points there have a great evening always great hanging out with everybody talk to you soon [Music]
• 74:00 - 74:30 hey by the way good to see all you smurfs around appreciate it