The Investment Opportunity of a Lifetime (Don’t Miss It)

Summary

Highlights

• Tom Nash discusses the recent UK-US trade deal while questioning its significance compared to a potential future deal with China. 🤔🇺🇸🇬🇧
• He explains the ongoing trade complications caused by tariffs and how they're rerouting global trade. 🌍🔄
• Tom emphasizes the enduring strength of the S&P 500 over decades despite global crises. 📈📅
• He shares practical steps to mitigate risk, including sector diversification and dollar-cost averaging. 📊💡
• Introducing the 'cockroach portfolio' as a low-risk investment strategy that can weather financial storms. 🪳⛈️

Key Takeaways

• Recent UK-US trade deal might be a positive move, but the real game-changer remains a deal with China. 🏴🇧🇺🇸🇨🇳
• Tariffs are complicating trade, leading to increased costs and inflationary pressures. 💸📈
• Despite tariff conflicts, your investment focus should center on GDP, employment, and corporate profits. 📊💼
• Avoid selling everything; instead, manage risk by diversifying into staple sectors like healthcare, telecom, and consumer essentials. 💊📞
• The 'all-weather' or 'cockroach' portfolio can buffer against market volatility, though with limited upside. 🪳📉

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction: Major Events and Market Outlook This chapter introduces two significant events impacting the market: the UK finalizing a trade deal with the US and Trump's statement encouraging stock purchases. Historically, similar comments from Trump have led to significant market movements. The outlook for the year remains uncertain, described as 'mixed.'
• 00:30 - 01:00: Current Market Performance and Investment Question The chapter discusses the current market performance, highlighting that the S&P 500 is down 3.5% and the NASDAQ is down 7% year to date, from the beginning of 2025. The main question posed is whether it is the right time to invest in stocks despite these declines. The chapter promises an analysis based on data and statistics without emotional influence, urging viewers to refrain from impulsive financial actions.
• 01:00 - 01:30: Impact of US-UK Trade Deal The chapter discusses the consequences of the US-UK trade deal. It starts by mentioning the "liberation day" which signifies a significant shift in trade policies, particularly highlighting a 145% tariff on China. This move was part of a broader trade war initiative. Shortly after implementing these tariffs, the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause, reflecting ongoing negotiations or reconsiderations of trade strategies.
• 01:30 - 02:00: Trade War Developments and UK Deal The chapter discusses recent developments in the ongoing trade war, focusing on exemptions that allow countries to negotiate trade deals with the US to avoid reciprocal tariffs. China is notably excluded from these exemptions. A significant announcement was made about a UK trade deal, signaling a major development. The chapter questions whether this marks the end of the trade war or if it's just the beginning of a new cycle.
• 02:00 - 02:30: US and UK Trade Relations Impact This chapter discusses the ongoing developments in US and UK trade relations. It denotes the addition of new countries into favorable trade agreements, suggesting the beginning of improved global cooperation. The speaker references the perspective that these agreements might be the initial trigger for broader changes in trade relations, with hints of optimism about the direction these negotiations are taking. They mention a quote from Trump highlighting the excellence of the trade deal from the US perspective, signaling confidence in the deal's benefits.
• 02:30 - 03:00: China's Role in the US Trade War This chapter discusses China's role in the US trade war by reflecting on the UK's trade relations with the US, emphasizing the historic and unique relationship between the UK and the US. It suggests that because the UK does not have a huge trade surplus over the US, unlike China, it is positioned to negotiate favorable trade deals. These deals potentially involve a baseline tariff agreement of around 10%.
• 03:00 - 03:30: Frozen US-China Trade and Global Impact The chapter discusses the implications of the United States' decision under the Trump administration to set a 10% floor for trade negotiations, indicating that no deals would start below this threshold. It highlights the unique exception of the United Kingdom potentially securing better trade terms. Additionally, it covers the effective end of the zero tariff status, signaling significant shifts in trade policies. The chapter underscores the broader impact these changes have on US-China trade relations, with ramifications potentially affecting global trade dynamics.
• 03:30 - 04:00: Supply Chain Complexities and Inflation In this chapter, the focus is on the impact of a new trade deal and its implications for global supply chain complexities and inflation, particularly highlighting the shift away from a previous era of near-zero tariffs. The narrative suggests that while the United Kingdom's involvement is significant, the ultimate determinants of the trade dynamics and their economic repercussions lie in the forthcoming trade agreements with China, which is described as the 'elephant in the room'. The agreements with China are positioned as pivotal in shaping the future trajectory of global trade, influencing both supply chain complexities and inflation trends.
• 04:00 - 04:30: Political Standoff and Economic Impact The chapter discusses the global implications of a political standoff involving the United States, with an emphasis on how it affects worldwide perceptions. It highlights the significance of a trade deal with China as a key indicator of economic and political developments. China, as a major supplier to the US, plays a critical role in this scenario. The text suggests a lack of understanding among political extremes about the intertwined nature of these economies.
• 04:30 - 05:00: Market Resilience and Historical Performance This chapter explores the economic relationship between China and the US, highlighting their intertwined and codependent dynamics. It describes the ongoing tariff war where each country has imposed significant tariffs on the other—China with a 145% tariff and the US with a 125% tariff. The chapter argues that such high tariffs effectively halt trade, as no entity is willing to trade under such expensive conditions. It essentially reflects on the tension these tariffs signify while emphasizing the fundamental interdependence of the two nations.
• 05:00 - 05:30: Impact of Missing Market Opportunities The chapter titled 'Impact of Missing Market Opportunities' discusses the current state of trade between the US and China, highlighting a significant decline. While trade hasn't completely stopped, the direct exchange between the two nations has effectively frozen, as evident from the statistic showing a 21% drop in April exports from China to the US. This chapter sets the stage for exploring the impact of such trade dynamics, especially considering the activities and trade shifts to other markets like Southeast Asia.
• 05:30 - 06:00: Determining Economic Trends This chapter discusses a strategy to determine economic trends by analyzing the rerouting of shipment paths due to tariffs between China and the US. Goods that were initially transported directly from China to the US are now being routed through Southeast Asia and Africa before reaching the US. This new route helps in bypassing tariffs but introduces more costs, complexities, and risks into the supply chain.
• 06:00 - 06:30: Sectors for De-risking Investment Portfolio This chapter discusses the impact of complex supply chains on inflationary pressures in the US economy. It highlights that increased complexities in the supply chain, even when avoiding tariffs, lead to higher prices of goods, thus contributing to inflation.
• 06:30 - 07:00: Changing Investment Strategy: Reducing Tech Exposure The chapter discusses the implications of changing investment strategies with a focus on reducing exposure to the technology sector. It highlights potential challenges for major stakeholders, including former U.S. President Donald Trump and China's economy. The narrative emphasizes how U.S. policy actions could significantly impact Chinese employment and GDP, particularly with 16 million jobs currently reliant on U.S. exports. The potential shift of U.S. investments to other regions could deliver a substantial economic blow to China.
• 07:00 - 07:30: Trimming Profits and DCA Strategy This chapter discusses the economic tensions between the US and China, highlighting a potential decrease in GDP growth for China, which typically boasts high growth figures. It notes the presence of conflicting opinions regarding which nation holds the upper hand in these economic interactions.
• 07:30 - 08:00: All-Weather Portfolio Introduction In 'All-Weather Portfolio Introduction,' the focus is on the economic and political tensions between the United States and China. The discussion highlights that the ongoing conflicts do not serve the interests of either nation and are essentially political maneuvers. The chapter emphasizes that both countries are experiencing losses due to these tensions, calling attention to the stalemate faced by the two nations' leaders, Trump and Xi. The overarching message is the irrationality of the situation, urging for an end to these counterproductive standoffs.
• 08:00 - 08:30: All-Weather Portfolio Composition and Strategy The chapter discusses the strategic composition of an All-Weather Portfolio, addressing the political complexities and rhetorics involved in global economic relations, particularly between major countries like China and the United States. The narrative illustrates a Mexican standoff in political rhetoric, where no country wishes to appear as conceding first. It highlights the conflict between economic interests that point towards resolution and political language that makes such resolutions challenging. Ultimately, the chapter explores potential strategies that could navigate this geopolitical impasse to stabilize economic portfolios.
• 08:30 - 09:00: Historical Performance and Drawdown Analysis The chapter titled 'Historical Performance and Drawdown Analysis' discusses a strategic approach to phasing out certain tariffs quietly and gradually. This process is likened to a 'fart in the wind,' indicating a subtle and almost unnoticed transition. The likely course of action involves granting exemptions, exceptions, and temporary exclusions. These measures will create a facade of persistence while effectively dismantling the tariffs to render them meaningless and empty. The approach aims to neutralize the impact of tariffs without overtly announcing their removal.
• 09:00 - 09:30: Diverse Investment Strategy and De-risking The chapter discusses strategies for investing in a diverse portfolio while managing risks associated with tariffs and international trade. It emphasizes the temporary nature of trade exemptions and the need for their periodic renewal (every six months to a year). The text highlights the critical economic elements like semiconductors and goods which are usually exempt from tariffs because imposing them would hurt both involved countries. The chapter suggests that while it might seem like a good strategy to invest heavily during these periods of exemptions, the reality is more complex and requires careful consideration, particularly when tariffs can be re-imposed based on changing political or economic circumstances.
• 09:30 - 10:00: Conclusion and Call to Action The chapter discusses the importance of resolving ongoing issues between China and the US, emphasizing their mutual interest in maintaining a stable relationship.

The Investment Opportunity of a Lifetime (Don’t Miss It) Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 So yesterday we had two major events. On the one hand, we had UK finalize a trade deal with the US. On the other hand, Trump came out and said, "Hey, there has never been a better time to buy stocks. Go out and buy stocks right now." Now, the last time he made a similar statement, you know what happened? The market flew off the handle and basically went into the stratosphere. So, while a lot of people said he should open a paging account with the stock picks, jokes aside, right now we're looking at a very mixed year, to put it gently, the
• 00:30 - 01:00 S&P 500 is down 3 and a.5%. The NASDAQ is down 7% year to date. Basically, from the beginning of 2025 to now, we are down 3 and a half and 7% on the two major indices. Basically, the question I want to answer today's video is, is this actually right now a time to buy stocks and risk on? Let's break down all the data, all the statistics, all the objective facts. Zero emotions. Don't click nothing. Don't smash nothing. Don't buy nothing. Let's do this. Okay. So, first and foremost,
• 01:00 - 01:30 okay, we had the liberation day where we were liberated for our money, right? That basically launched this whole trade war insanity and introduced it into our lives formally. Right now, the main highlight of that was the 145% tariff on China, but it quickly got followed by a 90-day pause, which was announced by the Trump administration, which also includes a
• 01:30 - 02:00 lot of exemptions, temporary exemptions. But essentially, this was done to allow countries to negotiate with the US trade deals so they don't get hit with the reciprocal tariffs. Now, China of course was not included in this deal. They were not part of this. But a UK deal, which is a major country, important country, a UK deal was announced yesterday. Now, is this the end of the trade war? Are we going to go into this cycle where
• 02:00 - 02:30 new countries get added to the done deal sector and we slowly clear paths to a better kind of cooperation globally? Is this basically the first sign? is the you know kind of the first trigger where this whole thing goes away. Well, let's talk about it. Okay, so let's move on to the next slide. So I think it's clear and I think even Trump said it that this was the best deal the US could have given to anyone, right? And that's okay because I
• 02:30 - 03:00 mean statistically speaking, historically speaking, the UK and the US have a very unique relationship and it makes sense for the UK to get the best deal possible. Also, because the UK isn't really China, it doesn't have a huge surplus over the US, right? So with UK getting a deal that basically means a 10% tariff that's the baseline that's the floor right now we just anchored
• 03:00 - 03:30 what is the zero all negotiations from this point on start with 10% because nobody will get a better deal except the UK and that's just a given otherwise this whole thing falls apart. So the Trump administration just set the floor at 10%. Anybody who's going to make a deal, they're going to start with 10% as the floor as the zero. On top of this, we also have essentially pretty much the death of the zero tariff status. That
• 03:30 - 04:00 whole thing is now gone with this new deal. So the old reality with almost zero tariffs, that's gone, right? I just want to remind people though even though UK is important and this is a huge milestone and all of that good stuff but this is not really an important deal and this is nothing to do with the UK. It's just that the elephant in the room and the one deal that's going to make or break this whole thing is not the United Kingdom. In fact, that is China. The China deal is going to be the key to how
• 04:00 - 04:30 this whole thing evolves for the United States and for the rest of the world because right now all other countries are looking at this trying to figure out what the hell's going on. The China deal is going to be the barometer to this whole thing and how it develops. Now let's move on to the next slide. So China is the third largest supplier of goods to America. I think you all knew this. And what most people don't understand on both extremes of the political map is that the economies of
• 04:30 - 05:00 China and the US are intertwined, interlin, they are codependent. They are not adversarial. Now, right now we have gotten ourselves in a situation that one country is living a 145% tariff, the other one is living 125% tariff. Essentially, when you have these kind of level of tariffs, no trade takes place. Nobody's paying 145% tariff. Nobody's paying 125% tariff. It's not going to
• 05:00 - 05:30 happen, right? So trade between the US and China is basically been frozen effectively. It's gone. Now, it doesn't mean there is no goods going from China to the US. We'll talk about that in a second. There's certainly a lot of activity on that front, but directly from China to the US, nothing's going on right now. Right now, right now we have got statistics about April exports from China to the US dropping 21%. But at the same time, we have exports to Southeast
• 05:30 - 06:00 Asia and Africa go up by the same number. So essentially what we've done is we rerouted the shipments from China to US into China, Southeast Asia, Africa, then to US. So everything continues to work as it did before. But now these goods are being shipped from a third-party location to avoid the tariffs. Now the problem with this is that it actually adds a lot of costs, a lot of complications, a lot of risk, a
• 06:00 - 06:30 lot of complexities. It becomes a very complicated supply chain unnecessarily, but it still is complicated. This means that with the complexity that we now have in the supply chain, by definition, even if you avoid the tariffs, by definition, the prices of the goods you are paying for will go up. The more complex the supply chain, the prices will go up and that is going to lead to inflationary pressures in the US economy
• 06:30 - 07:00 and that is not going to be ideal for anyone mainly Donald Trump and his legacy. On the flip side, if you take a look at China, well, on the Chinese side, right now we have 16 million jobs depending on US exports. That's going to be a big blow to the Chinese economy if the US takes this and goes somewhere else. It also actually is going to erode a lot of the Chinese GDP growth with all
• 07:00 - 07:30 this extra complexity and all these tariffs and all this mess. Well, economists are now saying that we might see a sub 5% GDP growth for China, which prides itself on this astronomical GDP growth numbers every single quarter. So, even for China, that is not ideal. Now, you're going to find people on both ends of the spectrum telling you that the US is giving it to China or China is giving it to the US. You have apologists on both sides. The fact of the matter is it
• 07:30 - 08:00 really really just both countries. Sorry for my language. There's no other ways about it. And the interest here is very very simple. None of this works in the favor of China or the US. This is basically political posturing on both sides. So interests basically say end it right now for both our sakes. This thing don't make no sense. We're both losing, right? But politically speaking, both leaders, Trump on the one hand and she on the other hand, are stuck in this
• 08:00 - 08:30 political rhetoric of giving it to the other country. We're going to give it to them. We're going to give it to them. Nobody wants to lose face. Not the Chinese, not America. Nobody wants to give up first. So we have a political Mexican standoff in which no country is going to admit they're going to give up. So I think the most likely solution here given the fact that the interest map points to this ending, but the political language is not going to allow for this to happen that easily is some sort of a
• 08:30 - 09:00 hybrid solution to phase this thing out quietly like a fart in the wind. Essentially, what the most likely outcome here is going to be is exemptions, exceptions, temporary exclusions, all sorts of things that will make it look as if nobody has given up and yet to drain this whole tariff thing out of its water. Essentially, make it empty, an empty vessel that holds nothing because
• 09:00 - 09:30 everything is exempt. Everything is accepted, everything is temporary excluded. Whatever language you want to use, you want to renew these exemptions every six months, a year, whatever. At the end of the day, the important stuff like semiconductors, like goods, none of this will have to bear these tariffs because both countries lose in that case. So, if that's the case, that means that it's go time. We should buy like crazy. Not necessarily. Hold on a second. It gets a little bit complicated here, a little bit tricky. I want to explain. So basically on the tariff side
• 09:30 - 10:00 right I told you right now that China and the US have a vested interest in figuring this thing out somehow right now if you look at the S&P 500 right now the S&P and you can zoom out over the past 50 60 years 70 80 years go back all the way to World War II the S&P 500 endured hundreds of these crisis style events. I can't even name the last 20 years of
• 10:00 - 10:30 events because it's going to be too long. There's always going on around the world in the in the US economy, in the global economy. Wars, pandemics, crisises, collapses. There's always going on. And yet, the S&P 500 gives us 10% per year on average like clockwork. Like clockwork. Sure, some years it's going to give you 30% per year for the next two, three years. Some years it's going to give you minus
• 10:30 - 11:00 20, -15, - 35. But when you even it out over a 10 year period, you're always going to get a 10% return on the S&P 500 despite the craziness and the madness. Now, the big problem with stepping out of a market, and I've been on this soap box for so long, is that if you miss the top 10 days in the market for a 20 year period, you're going to slash your returns by 50%. Nobody wants to do that.
• 11:00 - 11:30 Well, Tom, you just convince us to go all in and buy everything. Sell the house, mortgage the house, mortgage grandma, just buy all No, that's not what I'm saying. Hold on. It is a little bit more nuanced than that. What really is going to determine where the economy is headed is not the tariff war play between the US and China. That thing is going to resolve itself because both countries want it to be gone. The thing is going to impact the US economy and
• 11:30 - 12:00 therefore the stock market over the next two three years is these three elements. Gross domestic product the job market unemployment and corporate earnings. If we have high GDP means we're growing domestic product. If we have jobs, if we don't have unemployment, if corporate earnings are strong, if companies are making money and the margins are great, then it wouldn't matter what the Fed is going to do. It doesn't matter what the trade war is going to do. It doesn't
• 12:00 - 12:30 matter what the global warfare in Europe or Gas or all these places is going to happen. It doesn't matter if GDP, jobs, and corporate earnings are great. We will be fine. The stock market is going to be fine. It's the economy, stupid. It's always the economy. All of the other stuff is just pure noise. You shouldn't be wasting your time with that. It's just basically clickbait by mainstream media. Now, if you are concerned about the
• 12:30 - 13:00 uncertainty in the stock market right now, the craziness, the chaos, this administration basically, you know, behaving like a 5-year-old kid. If you're concerned about your portfolio and you already understand it's not a smart idea to get out of the market 100% and just try to get back later. It doesn't work like that. Well, what do you do to derisk a little bit? Well, you can do a few things. I actually listed one, two, three, four, five things you can do right now to reduce the risk of your portfolio and still stay invested.
• 13:00 - 13:30 Number one, you can invest in healthcare, staples, and telecom. These three sectors are actually known to withstand times of crisis, recessions, and all sorts of collapses better than anything else. Guess what? When the economy collapses, people still need, you know, they still need toothbrush. They still need their aspirin or Advil or drugs, and they still need to use their phones. All these things, they actually sell in good or bad times. They're not something that's going to go down 60 70% like tech stocks. Now,
• 13:30 - 14:00 brings me to my next point. reduce exposure to tech growth. If you have tech, if you have growth, if you have these high-f flyers, you can reduce, not sell completely, but reduce your exposure to that particular sector because we all know that if times get bad, this is going to be the biggest casualty. You know, these guys are going to get wet most mostly more than anybody else. And of course, just from a risk management perspective, you have to trim your biggest winners. If you're sitting on three 400% of earnings of profit,
• 14:00 - 14:30 sorry, from the past two years in the stock market, trim a little bit, sell 10%, sell 20%, sell 30%, you know, get some cash in so you can secure the bag no matter what happens. And of course, you have to continue keeping DCAing slowly, dollar cost averaging into the market. Basically, meaning buying a little bit every single month, every single week, continue to buy stocks slowly. And now we're getting to the HD part. You can also add this feature,
• 14:30 - 15:00 this hidden feature to your portfolio which is going to bulletproof it to an extent against any sort of chaos that can happen. Not saying go all in on this, but this element, adding this element, whether you want it to be 10% of your portfolio or 20% of your portfolio, adding this all weather portfolio element to your strategy actually is going to protect you from all this nonsense. What am I talking about? What is this all-weather portfolio? So the all weather portfolio, also known as the cockroach portfolio,
• 15:00 - 15:30 it's known as the cockroach portfolio because cockroaches famously would survive a nuclear holocaust, right? So this thing is supposed to be a cockroach, indestructible, right? Basically, it it would absolutely minimize your upside. I'll show you in a second by how much, but it's going to basically protect you to survive any sort of turbulence, right? no upside, lots and lots of protection and we'll keep you safe. That's why I'm saying you can't go 100% this because I mean you got to have some
• 15:30 - 16:00 taste of risk, right? Basically, the way this goes is 25% stocks, 25% treasuries, 25% gold, 25% cash. In my particular derivative, I like to do 10% S&P 500 and 15% defensive stocks like consumer staples, like healthcare, and like telecom. So 105, but the original number was 25 stocks. So if you put in 25 in stocks, 25 in treasury, 25 in gold, 25 in cash, you're creating a DCA pool for yourself and you're buying assets which
• 16:00 - 16:30 are going to protect you in case everything goes south. How much how much are you missing out by doing this? How much are you protecting yourself? Let me show you. There's actual data. Now, the only problem is that this data from 1978 to 2022, it's not up to 2025. I used an article from market sentiment. I absolutely love these guys. Go check them out. I'm not affiliated. I'm not sponsored. Not getting paid from them. But market sentiment, they actually have an article and the data is 1978 to 2022. Checking the performance of the
• 16:30 - 17:00 cockroach portfolio, but also checking the maximum growown. And that is the important part. It's not just about performance over the past 44 years. It's about how much the portfolio got hammered in bad times. And this is where this portfolio shines because if you look at this part right here, the S&P 500 of the past 44 years did an average of 14.4%. The 6040 portfolio, meaning 60% 40% equities and bonds did 13.7 and the Congress portfolio did 11.7% over the past 44 years. So it is massively
• 17:00 - 17:30 underperforming any of these. So for long-term, it doesn't make any sense. Long-term, you also have a lot of psychology. You still have to withstand the craziness. Guess what? The maximum draw down the maximum draw down of the S&P 500 portfolio was 51%. The maximum draw down of the 60/40 portfolio was 27%. You might open your portfolio one day and is it's down 51%. It's down 27%. The maximum draw down, the maximum drop that this caucus
• 17:30 - 18:00 portfolio ever had was 15%. It has never gone down lower than 15% no matter how bad things have gotten. This is the security blanket. This is something to keep you warm at night. A little bit of that in your portfolio is going to give you the peace of mind to stay invested and not do anything emotional. Now, I do want to show you this as well. There has to be a healthy mix here, folks. You cannot basically go ham on one particular thing, which is most most people want to do. You got to have a healthy mix. You
• 18:00 - 18:30 got to stay invested. You have to diversify and drisk. Sell your top winners, trim 30%, trim 20%. Add in a coage portfolio, right? DCA, dollar cost average, non-stop. You don't want to get out of the market. Relax and don't touch your portfolio. Studies show that the best performing portfolios out there right now in any brokerage in America are by dead people. Dead people outperform the living. And it is absolutely insane to me that people still want to fill around their
• 18:30 - 19:00 portfolio, buy and sell actively because it's interesting and because of the dopin rush when they know that not touching your portfolio, dcaing, relaxing, adding a little bit of d-risking and just staying invested is going to make them generational money. Simple as that. Now, if you would like to learn more about these sort of things, how to actually create generational wealth without being a generous gambler and without timing the market, I invite you to join my academy. The link is going to be right here below. patreon.com/dtomnash. 19,000 members are improving their investing strategy
• 19:00 - 19:30 today. You're invited. We'll see you there in just a second. Peace.