Trump Tariffs & Upcoming Recession! (5 Must know points for investors)

Summary

Highlights

• Tariffs are causing panic, as seen with NASDAQ's 6% dip and global market volatility. 😨
• Trump's tariffs have led to immediate market reactions, which are expected to stabilize over time. 🌍
• The tariffs could raise product prices globally, such as a 46% hike in iPhone prices due to increased costs. 📲
• Negotiation stages in tariff talks include high initial demands, counter-negotiations, and reaching a new normal. 🔄
• Investors should look at diversification and considering assets that hedge against inflation, like gold. 💰

Key Takeaways

• Tariffs imposed by Trump could cause widespread market disruption; they're bad for everyone involved - companies, countries, and investors alike. 🌍
• Market reactions to tariffs are intense initially, but such news gets absorbed over time, stabilizing the situation. 📉
• Negotiations are key - Trump's strategy may include starting with high tariffs to negotiate them down later. 🤝
• Inflation could rise as a result of tariffs, affecting economies globally, but particularly hitting the US market. 📈
• Investors should focus on diversifying their portfolio across regions and sectors to mitigate risks and capitalize on market opportunities. 📊

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 01:00: Introduction and Overview The chapter begins with a speaker who is slightly late due to technical difficulties and mentions a live chat session. The focus of the chapter is on five key points concerning the recent Trump tariff.
• 01:00 - 04:00: Market Reactions to Tariffs The chapter titled 'Market Reactions to Tariffs' discusses the impact of tariffs on stock markets, highlighting a noticeable decline in market indices. The Indian stock market dropped by approximately 1.5%, while the US NASDAQ experienced a significant fall of 6%. This panic-induced environment is contrasted with investment opportunities, with a macro thesis suggesting it could be an optimal time to build investment portfolios. The chapter also references a recent interview with Warren Buffett, emphasizing his perspective as a long-term investor seizing market downturns as buying opportunities.
• 04:00 - 09:00: Understanding the Stages of Tariffs In this chapter titled 'Understanding the Stages of Tariffs,' the narrator addresses the audience, particularly those new to the stock market, to help demystify the fluctuations occurring due to tariffs. It emphasizes that discounts are favorable in the current scenario, urging these new investors not to panic. The speaker assures that they are addressing the frequently asked questions surrounding the uncertainties and impacts of tariffs on the stock market, acknowledging the fears while aiming to provide clarity and comfort.
• 09:00 - 14:00: Short-term Impact of Tariffs The chapter titled "Short-term Impact of Tariffs" does not provide enough content to summarize comprehensively. There are placeholder texts and incomplete phrases such as "okay u Okay yeah uh sometimes live so no audio okay just a second guys okay i'm mic once all right um I'll leave it okay so like." These suggest that this is either an introductory section or a technical error during a live recording, rather than a substantive discussion on the topic. Further analysis or context is needed to derive meaningful insights from this chapter.
• 14:00 - 23:00: Investor Strategies Amid Tariffs The chapter titled 'Investor Strategies Amid Tariffs' discusses how tariffs impact investors and different economies. The discussion begins with a quote from Mr. Warren Buffett, followed by an analysis of the macroeconomic effects of tariffs. It highlights that tariffs are detrimental to all involved parties, including the US, China, and investors. The chapter suggests that basic economics supports the notion that tariffs have negative consequences universally.
• 23:00 - 30:00: Global Market Diversification The chapter discusses the impact of tariffs on global market diversification, particularly focusing on its effects on investments. It explains that when tariffs are imposed, they can lead to a drying up of investments as companies reassess their costs and pricing strategies. The chapter uses the concrete example of Donald Trump's recent announcement which could lead to a significant price increase, approximately 46%, for US buyers of the iPhone Pro 16 Max, should Apple decide to transfer the tariff costs to consumers. This scenario exemplifies the broader challenges companies face in maintaining competitive pricing in global markets amidst changing tariff regulations.
• 30:00 - 38:00: Investment Opportunities and Risks The chapter discusses the potential impacts of increased product pricing across different countries, specifically mentioning India and China. The increase in tariffs and prices is anticipated to create uncertainty in investment opportunities, causing a negative ripple effect globally. The statement 'tariff kills everyone' emphasizes the adverse outcomes and risks resulting from tariff changes, affecting consumers and investors worldwide.
• 38:00 - 43:00: Conclusion and Encouragement for Investors The chapter discusses the concept of news absorption in the stock markets, focusing on recent market reactions, particularly to unexpected announcements such as Trump tariffs. It emphasizes that the surprise and gravity of such tariffs can spook the markets, underlining the need for investors to be aware of how news impacts market dynamics.

Trump Tariffs & Upcoming Recession! (5 Must know points for investors) Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 hi everyone i hope you can see me hear me clearly uh just a very quick uh inputs yes okay awesome all right i I I always struggle with like you know YouTube tech so I'm sorry I'm a minute late okay so on this uh live chat we'll keep it fairly simple to the point right and there are five key points that I wish to speak about regarding the recent Trump tariff now people uh would have seen
• 00:30 - 01:00 seen a little bit dips in the stock market the Indian market fell by roughly one and a half% today the US stock market NASDAQ yesterday fell by six 6% which was like a crazy fall okay so a lot of panic is happening right just a very quick macro thesis that um if you are looking to invest this might be a great time to build your portfolio okay so there was a very recent interview of Mr warren Buffett i'll just take you uh state like a very important statement from that right and Mr warren Buffett said that he as long-term buyers of stock every time the market gets
• 01:00 - 01:30 discounted it's great for us now if you understand this statement this statement holds a lot of gravity right u people who are new to the stock market might be witnessing the fall in the stock market for the first time um they might be a little bit scared what's going to happen a lot of FAQs are coming my way uh lag okay so I'll just maybe see if there is anything that I can do at my end hopefully it should be
• 01:30 - 02:00 okay u Okay yeah uh sometimes live so no audio okay just a second guys okay i'm mic once all right um I'll leave it okay so like
• 02:00 - 02:30 audience should be okay right so all right all right okay awesome so uh that is what Mr warren Buffett said now I'll just take you through five key points right so the first key point is that the macroeconomics behind tariffs right in the sense that how would this tariff impact investors so is it good for them bad for them of course it's bad for them is it good for the US no it's bad for us also is it good for China no it's bad for China the key statement being that tariffs are bad for everyone this is what basic economics tells us the reason
• 02:30 - 03:00 for that is very simple that when tariffs are put then what ends up happening is that investments dry up right that for example and let's work with a concrete example here that just after like yesterday's announcement by Donald Trump iPhone pro 16 max the price now that US citizens would be paying could go up by roughly 46% now if Apple decides to pass on this cost to the
• 03:00 - 03:30 consumers they might have to increase the price of their product by 46% in India again the prices will go up in China again the prices will go up the point being that a product now be it like iPhone be it any other product uh most likely everything everywhere the prices are going to go up it's going to create an uncertaintity in investment and that is why tariff kills everyone this is like literally point number one and therefore which brings us to point
• 03:30 - 04:00 number two that the market reactions have been really bad but from here you need to understand the concept of uh the absorption of news in the stock markets now Trump tariff yesterday right uh it was little bit out of the blue in the sense that the extent of tariff that people did not think that the gravity of the tariff would be so high and that is what Donald Trump has done and therefore the markets got spooked again so this is point two okay that tariff news has been
• 04:00 - 04:30 factored in so it's not as if that every day the market will keep on falling due to the tariff news only and all that stuff so tariffs have been in the news for the last several months and now that news is fully factored in so whatever was on tariff has to has happened it has already happened so for example yesterday Trump announced tariff that he's going to put tariffs of roughly 54% on China china came back and just couple of hours back it announced that they are going to do a reciprocal tariff of roughly like 35% 40% something like this
• 04:30 - 05:00 so this is like the war is already on right and this news has been factored in this is the most important bit that you need to understand which brings us to the third point and this is what the point that people are missing that how can tariff situation play out and according to my analysis there are three stages in which tariff situation will play out this will somewhat tie into Donald Trump psyche also so I'll just quickly take you through it and it's fairly common sensical okay so stage one is that they will start out so it's a negotiation so for example if you study
• 05:00 - 05:30 Donald Trump's background he's a businessman primarily into real estate and any businessman negotiates okay and what is strategy number one of negotiation or stage one of negotiation is that you know what for example uh if you go and ask a person and if you're desperate for a job and if you go to a corporate job and in the job interview the usually like a normal question is asked that you know what how much salary are you expecting now what would people typically do now people would say that
• 05:30 - 06:00 okay like give me like base amount okay so like they like just give me job okay why because most people out of act out of desperation now business people especially like people in power they negotiate in completely opposite manner they make a ridiculous demand to begin with right so for example what is the ridiculous demands that Donald Trump has stated right so very simple right first thing that he has said is that see almost entire world I'm putting a tariff okay China 54% okay Vietnam I'm going to put 46% now why have they put 46% on
• 06:00 - 06:30 Vietnam 45 46% the reason being that China was throwing a lot of uh goods into the US market via Vietnam okay so therefore like I mean Vietnam has also been slapped with very high tariffs point being stage one of tariff from Trump's side is that he's a very powerful person he's taking it as a business kind of a negotiation and he's starting out with the most outrageous thing out there right so he's starting the bar here right that okay 54% is what
• 06:30 - 07:00 we are going to levy right now what would be stage two stage two would be counter negotiations why because as I explained on step one the tariffs are bad for everyone it's bad for China it's bad for the US it's bad for investors it's bad for India it's bad for everyone now what is stage two right i mean once let's say like after 6 months what do we start seeing it's very simple that the companies are going to post lesser profits there will be less supply of
• 07:00 - 07:30 material into the US because if there is massive tariff on iPhone there will be fewer iPhones being sold or even if people are buying it they will have to take like a higher EMI payment so that doesn't translate to domestic savings it hits the GDP number it hits the GDP numbers for the US it hits the GDP number for China it hits the GDP number for India it hits the GDP number for everyone and what is the meaning of GDP going down well it means that the business is not generating enough
• 07:30 - 08:00 revenues and profits right and what would business go and do they will go and ask for government's help you know what boss we are just unable to do the business do something about it so that leads to stage two of the negotiation what is stage two that there will be renegotiation of whatever Trump tariffs have been announced yesterday so yesterday for example Trump has announced like 54 55% whatever the tariff amount on China is it's ridiculous now it will get negotiated downwards okay so this is a very important point please remember this and
• 08:00 - 08:30 third a new normal will be figured out now I don't know and neither would I speculate many people are saying you know this much what the tariff would be or that much what the tariff would be i don't know what the tariff would be and how it will eventually be negotiated but the point is that it can only go downwards from this point okay it will not go upwards it's very very unlikely okay so this is third key point that you need to understand that this tariff situation will play out in three phases number one is the stage one where maximum tariffs have been announced by all countries they are muscle flexing
• 08:30 - 09:00 right now stage two will be negotiation stage this we are very likely to hit in the next 6 months or maybe even sooner and third is that we'll figure out the new normal that what that right amount of tariff would be i don't know what that right number would be maybe it would be half of what it is now not sure uh but this is up for debate and every piece of news that keeps on coming in the market right now regarding tariff most likely it is going to be positive news only right because the tariffs are only going to get revised downwards we thought about those like in the next
• 09:00 - 09:30 whatever like 10 15 days other countries will also come Canada will come and say something and you know Mexico will say say something but if you look at like six month to one year time frame this is only going to re get renegotiated downwards okay number fourth what happens in the short term due to tariffs right so there are five key things that are going to happen number one thing is that there will be inflation will inflation only be there in the US the short answer is no the infl Inflation might be more in the US but it will hit
• 09:30 - 10:00 equally across the globe right so even India is going to face higher inflation if the tariff situation persists and this is going to be the case why this is called a supply side inflation because there will be less supply of goods for example Apple might not announce that it's going to like launch its next product so they will just withhold production of phones so as a result the price of the phone they don't have to liquidate so usually you know previous model gets sold at lower prices all that stuff so new model
• 10:00 - 10:30 releasing your so then what will happen right for the next 2 three years iPhone 16 Pro Max whatever it is it might exist at the same price okay so this is problem one that inflation in the economy will be high it's very very likely good news is that inflation in the US right now looks to be under control and inflation eventually gets controlled okay number two point or the second impact in the short term due to tariff would be that there will be some supply chain shifting to the US you might be already reading the news that
• 10:30 - 11:00 uh US is trying to promote homegrown manufacturing which is make in America right so similarly in India we have make in India so in America we have make in America and all that stuff is happening so a lot of supply chain is getting shifted to the US now you can call Trump a joker you can call Trump like 100 different names it doesn't matter right he's doing whatever he feels is right uh it has merits demerits to it we are no one to critique him from that angle right this is the situation so a lot of so now if you step back and see the US becomes a good manufacturing base in the
• 11:00 - 11:30 future this is now one could argue that it will not beat China or this that stuff but the point is that so far US was not focusing on low-end manufacturing or mid-end manufacturing the way China used to do now China is doing all types of manufacturing right uh and it is cost competitive us would want to do the same now US has depended enough on China right so it's trying to shift that base so it is now what what this is leading to is that this is going to lead to regionalization of the world
• 11:30 - 12:00 which is already happening at a very fast pace uh that's already happening okay so that is there right so US also becomes a power center is it good for India uh yes and no right which brings us to the third impact that third party vending in the short term will go up for example you might have you might already be aware that Vietnam for example developed a few ports very aggressively because this tariff situation between US and China is not new this tariff war had
• 12:00 - 12:30 been happening with US and China rather it accelerated between US and China from 2016 right so therefore like I mean we need to understand the fact that 2016 so this war has been going on now it has gone like fullblown and since then Vietnam has benefit a lot benefited a lot because China was sending stuff to Vietnam and exporting it to the US via Vietnam okay so therefore Vietnam now now has received like a 46% tariff from the US right so third party network may India India can benefit quite a lot right because for example we have
• 12:30 - 13:00 something called as make in India which is more like assemble in India so almost 85% of the production of iPhone happens in China now that supply chain should have shifted to Vietnam right but because Vietnam also has very high tariffs it might shift to India so this is a good ploy for India now depends on how our politicians handle all this and are they able to bring it or not bring it a lot depends on that but these type of like you know third party vendors can come into existence and India can make a play right so we have to focus on
• 13:00 - 13:30 manufacturing from this point maybe we'll be able to do it I don't know right but that's a hope okay fourth point is that world might witness like at least two quarters of bad revenues on manufacturing companies okay tech right so tech because um how would you slap tariffs on tech right for example meta showing ads it's not u that easy and there are a lot more um variability right there is a lot of options that these top tech companies
• 13:30 - 14:00 have right so we'll wait and see that's a topic in itself so I will not comment too much about it but to cut the long story short term manufacturing oriented business businesses are risky to hold so I would you know look at my portfolio and cut some okay fifth point is negotiation and this might play out really fast right so for example Trump has announced tariff today really like you know crazy amount of tariffs right and then probably this situation gets resolved in a month who knows okay and if that happens then whatever dips that
• 14:00 - 14:30 you're seeing in the stock market all goes back up okay fifth and final point right and then I'll do some FAQs right with you guys right so fifth point is that uh what is the impact of investors what should investors do point one is that I'm buying I'm buying heavily in the US markets right now I was sitting on a lot of cash uh approximately 35% of my portfolio is done I will bring it up to 50% close to 50% now hopefully a garage market dip I'll invest quite a lot today okay so I'm right after this call I'm jumping
• 14:30 - 15:00 into the US market and buying stuff okay so this is one uh second key point is that because there's a lot of panic in the US market uh regarding Indian markets I feel that our large caps are at fair value in fact if you study the last five six months seven months banks have done really well private banks have done really well it's only the overvalued Tata Motors type of companies that have corrected quite a bit right but other than that valuation correction on large caps mostly seems to have been done okay in India so those are good to
• 15:00 - 15:30 hold there is no problem if you want to add more you could consider doing that right then comes small caps in India are they at a good level i don't think so small and mid gap caps i have been not been buying it i'd sold it right i have made multiple videos multiple posts etc so that does not make much sense to me to hold at least till the time valuations kind of becomes more sensible third is that it's very critical to diversify across regions for example if you don't trust China too much it's fine take like
• 15:30 - 16:00 maybe five 5% 10% um bet okay if you don't trust US take like maybe 10 15% bet but the point is that this diversification needs to be there because if power centers are there for example Russia is a power center in itself Middle East is a power center in itself and if you're only concentrated your job is also in India all your savings are also in India your stock investing is also in India your PFP PPPF is also in India you're completely exposed to INR and due to all this global uncertaintity uh there will be a
• 16:00 - 16:30 lot of it which brings us to the topic of gold right gold has given crazy amount of rally i don't know till what point the rally will continue but now it's reaching that height where the riskreward does not look very favorable right for investors now right so I mean if you invest today on gold right so because it has given so much runup there is going to there is likely to be a valuation correction so to say or some kind of time correction because gold is not going to keep on giving you like returns like this but having said this
• 16:30 - 17:00 uh it's very important that you take like some kind of exposure to fixed supply assets so don't consider gold as gold consider it to be a fixed supply asset because the supply of gold can't be increased like dramatically okay uh so real estate gold somewhat silver people are saying BTC Bitcoin so all these three four five are options for you which you could consider uh sort of investing in right so gold can correct usually gold does not go down
• 17:00 - 17:30 dramatically it's just that it will go sideways right for a fairly long period of time right so that's typically happens that's what I would say okay so this is where we'll stop right and I'll take like questions for 10 minutes and then I'm off to buying US stocks okay cryptos BTC I have been a a big proponent of uh BTC uh so I continue to add BTC I have already purchased quite a lot I will be buying more right so that's that's my view point other than that I don't buy any other crypto right hopefully banking in India remain prone to tariffs so banking will not get hit
• 17:30 - 18:00 much directly right uh it will get hit indirectly PVR guys I mean see number one like all small cap mid caps in India have corrected the index itself has corrected 25 30% in that context if you know if there is a stock which is corrected 10% more than the index it's not as if that you need to stress too much about it tell me like five like top small cap monopolistic companies in India for example PBR people are making a lot of noise aas people used to make a lot of
• 18:00 - 18:30 noise it has gone up now quite aggressively right it was also small cap which was there on my portfolio nifty ID I am negative i'm not adding any Nifty ID in fact I sold all my Nifty ID on profits uh a while back right uh the reason is very simple that if I were to buy like tech companies I would buy high quality companies like Meta which had fallen by like you know 10 15% just in last week okay so there's why why would you like you know touch like something like Nifty IT today okay so it doesn't make much sense right um don't buy speculative things for example I cannot
• 18:30 - 19:00 say like I mean I cannot give you the names of those for example in India we have like EV companies and all that right so it's it's my viewpoint right that EV companies again can you know sort of be in a flux there's a lot of um yeah lot of lot of things like going sideways right a lot of speculation happening so don't put speculative money right now put decisive money because the entire market is at a discount right steel industry it is expected that the prices of steel are going to come down
• 19:00 - 19:30 so yeah so just understand that even SBI card has gone up a little bit nvidia or AMD so both are very good stocks that's number one number two in the US if you want to buy China then it's different but in the US these are like two top companies right if you want to buy you can buy semiconductor index also in the US the indices are designed wonderfully well it's very easy to buy ETF/ index so that can be done uh geo finance again like I mean you know you are already reading all the news there is no point in me commenting on like you know Indian billionaires right so when you're seeing
• 19:30 - 20:00 the type of monopoly that they enjoy so there is no point okay recession I had made a separate video that was my last video uh will we hit a recession will we not hit a recession looks like that we should hit a recession even after like you know if this tariff thing goes keeps going up like for the next 6 months it continues we should be in a recession i'll be surprised if you're not in a recession but uh does it mean that the economy will be destroyed if we are in a recession no not at all right i mean there have been multiple recessions and the world come backs up so please watch
• 20:00 - 20:30 my last video i've already uh explained right okay uh your this I'm not US investing information so you can open an account with uh with any broker for example you can uh consider something like Wested right so they have a partnership with HDFC Bank so you can consider it doing via vested or whichever app you like you can do that right us investing is safe it's regulated for example Wested has a partnership with HDFC and the broker that they use at the back end in the US
• 20:30 - 21:00 that's u that's regulated by uh by SEC okay so uh that is there right so it's regulated both in India and the US domestic consumption cycle domestic consumption in what right so that's the point right so that's uh for example domestic consumption in hospital types of businesses great right I mean I'm adding a lot of hospital stocks okay but domestic consumption in let's say I don't know like uh let's say clothing brands or something right I don't know like I mean is India the most cost
• 21:00 - 21:30 effective producer when it comes to that probably no but when it comes to medical based services is India a very good um play right for for example medical tourism so is India a very strong play over a five-year period yes right I mean a lot of people for example from Middle East people travel to India to get uh medical treatments u a lot of people from like um uh countries like even US Europe they come to India to get medical treatment
• 21:30 - 22:00 so I think that's a very strong play right so that type of domestic consumption works right luxury brand consumption works for example I'm right now in Dubai right so for example Indian real estate guys are coming and doing events in India oh sorry doing Indian real estate guys coming to Dubai to do events for Dubai based NRIs to make them invest in India okay so it's like absolute crazy stuff happening okay so because Dubai real estate market is very thriving so to say because stock market
• 22:00 - 22:30 is not that big real estate market is already like fairly mature right but Indian real estate players are coming to Dubai to sell uh real estate back in India like uh yeah so I mean that's that's interesting right uh Amazon very good stock I would say right now right so that's that's a good ad but now it really depends on how you're managing right I mean uh otherwise most people will just be puntering puntering means that you're just going and buying today right and then you have no clue when to buy the next bit okay so I do have a US
• 22:30 - 23:00 stock investing community in case you guys are interested the link might be there in the description comment box so you can check it out okay hero Motor Club so two wheeler uh production in India seems to be okay right and uh these players are good right but I would not overplay it right so for example if you're investing in something like let's say any individual company in India right don't invest more than 5% of your capital for large cap and not more than 2.5% on small cap stocks okay so yeah as
• 23:00 - 23:30 long as you do that you'll not be stretched and please diversify this is a diversification market okay okay uh okay okay okay all right awesome okay guys uh I am not too I don't understand pharma much it's very complicated to understand that in India right now so I'm rather focusing on areas that I understand well and I'll continue to make videos around that uh I'll take some questions from like members here right so what US stocks can we buy okay so like I mean the entire market is at a discount right
• 23:30 - 24:00 so NASDAQ you have ASML Nvidia Crowd Strike all are good good good stocks okay so it depends on how you're building a portfolio that's more important right so okay uh view on M&M completely Q4 result quite good so uh okay I haven't checked it i I'll check it and get back right uh but Eminem generally is a good company right but I cannot issue like you know buy this buy that right i can still do that for the US but India I can say okay so
• 24:00 - 24:30 okay all right okay so I think I've answered most of the questions okay uh cool awesome all right guys i hope that this was a useful small chat and it gave you a little bit of confidence to hold your stocks right uh whenever there's a market correction people who and if you have the money do invest right don't just keep on sitting on the sidelines because market always makes it cuts its previous high in a country like US and
• 24:30 - 25:00 India right so our stock markets need to thrive there is a very strong correlation between GDP and um CD so there's a very strong correlation between GDP and our stock markets right so that's stockification of India and stockification ation of the US stock uh or US economy so that is going to be there so don't lose trust there it's very important and right now you guys are serious users because uh you know people who entered like in 2020 2021 they they made a little bit of
• 25:00 - 25:30 money went out they were speculative guys okay so but now if you're sticking by if you're studying all these things showing up for these type of chats it means that you are serious about investing and I hope that you know this this session gave you a little bit of clarity and yeah thank you so much for joining and I'll see you soon okay bye