⚠️WATCH BEFORE MONDAY 9 30am!! #PLTR #SOFI #TSLA #NVDA #ACHR #RGIT #SPY #QQQ

Estimated read time: 1:20

Summary

In a recent video, Felix & Friends from Goat Academy delves into the fluctuating stock market landscape as tech stocks experience significant downturns amidst rising tariffs. The session covers major players like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and other prominent enterprises, analyzing recent market behaviors and opportunities amidst the chaos. With a casual and insightful tone, the video encourages viewers to consider risk management strategies, understand market signals, and seize potential opportunities, all while navigating ongoing market flux influenced by geopolitical events.

Highlights

Tariffs are shaking up the stock market, causing massive sell-offs and creating new buying opportunities once the dust settles. 📉📈
The VIX or 'Fear Index' is a critical tool — currently at a concerning high, suggesting caution in buying stocks. 😟📊
Tech stocks like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft are experiencing significant downturns, marking potential future rebound points if approached wisely. 💡📉
Retail investors often react to panic, but long-term market recovery trends favor those who practice patience and risk management. ⌛💰
Housing on potential future buy points when markets stabilize, despite the current gloomy atmosphere hits. 📉🏠
Understanding the impact of geopolitical and economic shifts on stock valuations can offer strategic insights for investors. 💹🔍
Encouragement to learn and apply risk management techniques to navigate turbulent market conditions effectively. 🌊🧠

Key Takeaways

The market is currently facing turbulence due to new tariffs, but there's opportunity amidst the chaos! 📉🤔
Understanding market signals like the Fear Index can help in making informed decisions. ⏳📊
Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia have been hit hard, but might present future buying opportunities. 💼📉
Risk management is crucial to ride out market volatility and protect your investments. 🤓🛡️
Keep some cash on hand to buy during dips and be prepared for recovery rebounds. 💵🔄
Political and economic events can drastically influence stock trends - stay informed! 🌏📈
Every market dip has historically been followed by a rebound, so keep your cool and manage risks wisely! 📈☀️

Overview

In this insightful session by Felix & Friends, the current upheaval in tech stocks is unraveled with an engaging and comprehensive dive into how major companies are coping under new tariff impacts. From analyzing Apple and Microsoft to exploring the broader financial ripple effects, this video outlines the key moves and how they align with global economic shifts.

The narrative highlights the importance of observing market signals such as the Fear Index and stresses the importance of risk management. By automating exits and maintaining a strategic approach, viewers can better withstand market shocks and seize buying opportunities when the time is right. Learn about the potential advantages of holding cash and awaiting favorable market conditions.

This session serves not only as an analysis but a call to action for investors to refine their strategies amid market chaos. As history shows, markets do bounce back, and with the right risk management tools and mindset, there is a chance to emerge from the downturn on a stronger financial footing. Encouraging viewers to look beyond immediate losses, it's a reminder that strategic planning is key in the ever-evolving economic landscape.

Chapters

00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Overview This chapter serves as an introduction and overview, focusing on the anticipated performance of tech stocks in the upcoming week. It highlights the central theme of market anxiety, particularly with noticeable declines (referred to as 'bleeding' in the markets) and portfolios in the red. The narrator outlines a systematic walkthrough covering major tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Meta, Tesla, with indexes like the S&P and NASDAQ. It also includes broader technological sectors like quantum computing, represented by companies such as Palantir, PayPal, SoFi, Archer, and Rigetti. The aim is to equip viewers with insights into what lies ahead in the tech market landscape.
00:30 - 01:00: S&P Investment Strategy The chapter discusses an S&P investment strategy, highlighting the potential gains from investing in the S&P 500 index each time CNBC airs its "Markets in Turmoil" special. The chart presented suggests that consistently buying the S&P during these moments of market panic, as broadcasted by CNBC over the past 15 years, has been a profitable strategy. The data shows the returns one would have made in the following year after each special, as well as the total returns across all such instances.
01:00 - 05:30: Stock Analysis and Trends The chapter explores the dynamics of stock market analysis, focusing on identifying opportunities amid market uncertainties. It questions whether the current market presents buying or selling opportunities, or if investors should wait. The discussion includes examining activities in dark pools where institutional investors operate, utilizing tools like Habit Life and Trade Vision. These tools offer insights into market movements and trends, available through a zero-risk free trial offer.
05:30 - 10:00: Analyzing Microsoft and NVDA The chapter discusses an analysis involving companies like Microsoft and NVDA, beginning with a brief mention of Coca-Cola, which was included for a different reason. The conversation transitions to discussing the VIX, also known as the fear index, highlighting its importance in market analysis. The speaker emphasizes the significance of the 20-point mark on the VIX, explaining that when it's below 20, market conditions are considered favorable, whereas above 20 indicates potential volatility or concerns. This sets the scene for a broader discussion on market trends.
10:00 - 15:00: Amazon and Tech Stock Trends In this chapter titled "Amazon and Tech Stock Trends," the discussion focuses on a significant event where stock market indicators have reached worrying levels. The transcript mentions that the high mark of 45 indicates a concerning state much like the spike experienced in August during concerns over Japan's economic stability. The current closing level at 45 is considered serious, implying a warning against purchasing stocks at this time. This chapter warns investors to be cautious in the market, particularly with tech stocks that might be influenced by these trends.
15:00 - 20:00: Understanding Market Patterns In 'Understanding Market Patterns,' the speaker emphasizes the emotional and strategic responses to market fluctuations. They acknowledge the stress many face during volatile times but highlight that while most people find these situations stressful, a few see them as opportunities. The speaker admits they used to be fearful of market changes but now view them as chances for potential gains. The chapter encourages analyzing individual stocks to identify those better positioned and to pinpoint opportunities in the market.
20:00 - 25:00: Opportunities and Risk Management The chapter explores the concept of automatic selling in portfolio management as a form of risk management. The speaker describes a personal practice where they sell assets at predetermined points to avoid significant losses, allowing them to sit on cash reserves. This approach is likened to buying opportunities, where a decrease in asset price (like a house) is seen positively if viewed through the lens of an informed risk management strategy. The importance of being educated in risk management to avoid losses and harness opportunities is emphasized.
25:00 - 30:00: SoFi and Quantium Computing Insights In the chapter titled 'SoFi and Quantium Computing Insights', the focus is on understanding the fundamentals and resilience of companies amidst market fluctuations, such as those caused by tariffs. The example given compares the situation to being offered a lower price for a house that one values and trusts due to its solid foundation, suggesting that investors must look at companies similarly to determine if they are genuinely affected or if the concerns are merely 'noise and fear.'
30:00 - 35:00: Market Sentiments and Indicators In the chapter titled 'Market Sentiments and Indicators,' the discussion centers around the importance of charts in understanding market dynamics. Charts are highlighted as essential tools that summarize collective market knowledge and thoughts. The chapter emphasizes how charts aid in setting exit points and automating decisions, providing valuable insights for informed trading actions. The notion of learning from charts, even retrospectively, is considered beneficial for future strategic planning.

⚠️WATCH BEFORE MONDAY 9 30am!! #PLTR #SOFI #TSLA #NVDA #ACHR #RGIT #SPY #QQQ Transcription

00:00 - 00:30 if you're worried what your favorite tech stocks are going to do this coming week as markets are bleeding and your portfolio is bright shiny red this is the video for you i'm going to walk you through in the following order and you can see it on my screen here the week ahead the fear index that's important uh Apple Microsoft Nvidia Amazon Google Meta Tesla the S&P the NASDAQ Palantia PayPal SoFi Archer and Regetti as a representative for the whole uh quantum compute thing now before we do that let
00:30 - 01:00 me show you one chart that might just cheer you up just a little bit and then I'm hoping to do that a little bit here today if you invested if you bought the S&P every time that CNBC came out with their markets in turmoil special um which they've done fairly frequently in the last 15 years these are every single done in 15 years how much money would you have made in the following year right you see all these numbers and how much money would you have made since in total you get these numbers you see
01:00 - 01:30 that so when everybody is freaking out there is always opportunity but is the opportunity here or should we be sitting on our hands for a little bit longer should we be selling should we be buying that's kind of what we want to get into here so we're going to look at through through these stocks we're going to look at uh what the big boys are doing in the dark pools because we got that data we have the habit life and in trade vision here which is the tool that I'm using there's a free trial to it cost you nothing zero risk um check it out so you
01:30 - 02:00 get the same data that that I'm getting here um Coca-Cola was on here for a different reason i was actually thinking that might be the only thing that was bullish but then yesterday that kind of ended that party too so let's kick it off with VIX here you can of course jump around but you will miss the story i'll try to conduct the whole thing so it makes the most sense to you and what are you seeing right now well you see what I read on the chart here below 20 on the fear index everything is hunky dory everything is wonderful the sun is shining and above 20 well things get a
02:00 - 02:30 little bit iffy we're at 45 and that says to you this is pretty bad when was the last time we were that high well in August when Japan sort of threatened to collapse we briefly spiked that high but we didn't close that high we closed at 38 we closed at 45 that is serious serious business and it's something you want to pay attention to it's basically saying to you do not buy stocks yet that's what it's saying and
02:30 - 03:00 that would be my my overall overarching message here but we can have a look at obviously what the individual stocks are doing which ones are better set up which ones are not where the opportunities lie um but ultimately I think if this last week has jolted you has made you feel stressed and and that would make you very normal like almost everybody out there is stressed um with the exception of very few kind of um people who look at this as it's an amazing opportunity um and I'm a little bit odd on that in that respect i get that but I used to be just like you i used to get terrified
03:00 - 03:30 when my portfolio went down um I no longer am because I automatically sell things at certain points and it means I'm sitting on a lot of cash so I'm basically I'm basically the guy who says "Uh well I want to buy this house i thought it was going to cost $100,000 now it's only $60,000 am I upset about that right no I'm not now think about it the other way around if you haven't sold because you haven't been taught the risk management and this is not a question of
03:30 - 04:00 ability it's a question of having been taught the skills if you're sitting in that house and you paid 100,000 for it and I come along and I say "I'm going to pay you 50,000 for it." Would you sell to me no right you'd laugh you'd say "Bagger off my house is solid my foundations are good i like it you know I like it on here so you got to look at that you got to look at like are these companies sound are they genuinely massively impacted by the tariffs here or is this just you know noise and fear
04:00 - 04:30 uh and we're going to do a little bit of both of that although today of course is focused mostly on the on the chart side of life why why the chart because the chart tells you everything that everybody in the market knows and thinks it's literally a summary of what everybody knows now one of the beautiful things with charts is also we can set exits we can automate where we want to get out and and this might sound a little bit like oh well I should have done it soon this isn't useful but I still think we learn a lot from it and it means that next
04:30 - 05:00 time this happens and by the way this happens very regularly h you you know you will be better set up and and you know just to give you an idea here on Apple uh we called a bearish signal here at 238 that was 50 bucks higher and buy and hold is a myth by the way buy and hold 3.5% up over the last two years on Apple if you just done a little bit more active management and that probably would take less than an hour a week you'd be up 37% i'm not telling you you should turn yourself into a trader i'm just saying just a little bit of active risk management uh and you'd be up you know
05:00 - 05:30 37% rather than the 3% now how do you learn that um there is a free lesson that I put together everything that I was taught by investment bankers hedge fund managers who'd done this for 20 30 40 even 50 years uh and it took me about 10 years to learn um and I've I've distilled all of that into literally 15 minutes so you can learn the key rules the important rules when do we buy back in when do we buy more and at what point
05:30 - 06:00 do we sell and if you know that and if you know how to automate the selling part life just got a lot better and and you sleep a lot better uh and then of a lot of our students telling me how happy they are now that we made them sell we didn't make them sell we said like these are the rules uh they didn't want to sell at the time this was two or three weeks ago and of course now they're jumping up and down for joy because they're like "Oh this was good." Right so Apple okay what What do you see in this chart here well it's it's it's a really nice textbook lesson here today i know it doesn't feel like that but look
06:00 - 06:30 we can learn a lot out of gloom um in the long run every market crash has always recovered right every market crash has always recovered this is also why I show showed you this at the beginning no matter how bad it was whether it was 911 or 2008 or 2018 or you know every single crash in the history of the world has always recovered and um this was one gap down we had another little gap down here the the next day so that's a gap that's a gap gaps are bad on the way down and
06:30 - 07:00 then we had we did that at the same time let me zoom out a little bit so you can see it better we did that on massive volume you see how the volume is usually sort of this trading volume and then it spiked massively and that's sell volume um and that says to you that institutions are selling and I looked up the data hedge funds sold the most stocks ever I think on Thursday and Friday or maybe not ever but in like 20 30 years and um retail investors bought the most stocks ever on Thursday and
07:00 - 07:30 then of course got hammered and I I just wish more people would pay attention to the the basic indicators and the basic rules so you don't buy the falling knife right uh because it's unpleasant it it hurts and it loses makes you lose you know the will to live sort of thing so how buffalo can we go on on Apple look there is no there is no um limit to how low you can go uh we could go back to where we were in April 2024 which was $160 that would be a a a logical support
07:30 - 08:00 line here there is a fair bit of support sort of around that sort of zone 160ish um that doesn't mean we have to go that low it could be that that on on on Monday you know something positive happens you get some sort of trade deal agreement or something but I don't think so personally uh typically when you get two big bloody red days like this people are pretty freaked out they're going to freak out over the weekend unless something positive gets announced we're below the support level here you see that one there which means there is literally no support so we can fall we
08:00 - 08:30 can fall and we can fall some more so let's move on to something else and see if we can find something a bit more optimistic on say uh Microsoft's little thing um Bill's little thing rather here Microsoft so is that better or worse than Apple well it's better why is it bad better well because we have no gaps right there are no gaps here yeah we went down but no gaps so that's a little bit better now we closed at the very bottom of the day
08:30 - 09:00 trading range so you get these upside down hammer candles that look like this and think about it if you take a hammer and you drop a hits your toe does it hurt yeah that's exactly what that says that's a very bearish candle a lot of sell-off volume here on Friday even more than on Thursday so Microsoft's also getting hit now is Microsoft going to get affected by tariffs okay they make some laptops and a few sort of tech equipment things and goggles and that kind of thing um they buy a lot of chips now chips are
09:00 - 09:30 exempt right semiconductors are exempt from the tariffs uh possibly there are other parts to the data centers that might get affected if they're made in Taiwan or somewhere like that but I don't think it's a big impact now the only thing that would hit them hard is if say Europe came out and said "We're going to put a 20% tax on software sold online." Hang on they already do that it's called the digital services tax uh that the Apparachnik have in place there in Europe um and
09:30 - 10:00 um could they raise it yes yes they could uh but I I I I just my feeling is that Europe isn't going to escalate this as much as you think because Europe sells a lot more to the Americans than the other way around they kind of need to make peace and the fact that the Germans and I'm one of those are talking about removing 120 tons of gold or whatever from the Fed storage in New York I quite like that as
10:00 - 10:30 a story because it's sort of saying look we got to do something to look tough and strong but um nobody really gets hurt just because you move a bit of gold around like I mean the US economy does not affect it because there's less German gold in New York uh so I I think there is some room for some agreements here um but maybe I'm I'm a permanent optimist but Microsoft here at 359 look it's below the support uh we are back to November 2023 levels if you remember
10:30 - 11:00 in November 2023 or just before actually at the end of 23 um the world thought we were going to go into a recession um and then we kind of rallied out of it so could we go lower yeah sure we can go back to the 300s or so ultimately to me Microsoft is one of those companies it's very diversified insanely well-run uh huge huge huge huge huge uh user base uh I think they acquire 4,000 customers a day still and they pretty much all pay on a recurring revenue basis so you know it's not a business that's that's
11:00 - 11:30 collapsing that's what I'm saying now is it the time to buy it at this level i I don't think so because it looks like it wants to go lower right that would be be my view on that and I kind of kicked that off with with the VIX here at the top as well now what about NVDA now specifically I said that there are exemptions for semiconductors and the tariffs so you'd think Nvidia wouldn't really be affected by this but it's down pretty hard on Friday 7% down here and on pretty decent volume so
11:30 - 12:00 again it's a bit like the Apple scenario we had one gap here that was a gap and we had a gap here it's just lally just between the candles there's a gap it's like between teeth there's a gap you might like it you might not like it in this case it's not a good thing and then volume is starting to explode and again we closed almost at the end the lower end of the day trading range so no real like dip buying on Friday on Thursday we still had quite a bit on Friday we had nada zero so where does that take us
12:00 - 12:30 well it takes us to the August low funnily enough which was you know Japan imploding uh which would have slowed the US economy probably um and and we're now back in that kind of zone um so for a company that's grown tremendously over the last year the stock just got a lot cheaper so I like Nvidia i like Nvidia um the cheaper it gets I'm again not buying it yet because it is a falling knife at this point you don't want to catch it try catching a falling knife actually don't try it it
12:30 - 13:00 tends to cut through your hand and often lands in your foot uh and we want to avoid that so from a entry point of view everybody out there would say to you this is not a good thing and some people are also drawing um this sort of pattern here which is a head and shoulder pattern where you basically connect the armpits kind of thing and you're saying "Look that's a bad pattern that means we're going to go lower." So this is not looking very very pretty here now what about Amazon
13:00 - 13:30 well Amazon is of course affected because a lot of particularly Chinese businesses sell a lot of stuff on Amazon and a lot of American business sell a lot of foreign made mostly Chinese-made products on on Amazon so you'd think there might be less merchandise being sold therefore less fees collected maybe a little bit less advertising revenue collected from those merchants um now what do you see here on Friday well
13:30 - 14:00 actually a little bit of optimism what's the difference between these candles that we've just seen and this one here well okay let me let me walk you through the bad stuff first volume went up a lot right not pretty we had a gap here right that was a gap that's not pretty the next day was a pretty big sell-off candle now yesterday we dropped all the way down here to about 163 and then we actually bought the dip back up to
14:00 - 14:30 $171 so there was some buy the dip thing going on there which means there's a little bit more strength in this now we didn't close at the top of the day range but also we didn't close at the bottom of those range in the middle of it so it's a little bit more positive and once again Amazon makes a lot of their money and a lot of their future money is going to be made from AWS you know cloud computing chips are exempt um and secondly and by the way AWS internationally is pretty much a
14:30 - 15:00 localized service so if you're using AWS in Europe you're going to be using European service and you're going to be paying Amazon you know Netherlands or Luxembourg or Ireland or something like that so that wouldn't be affected by by tariffs because it's a domestic European company at that point um and why do they do that because to comply with local regulations um they didn't foresee this but that kind of protects them uh and then you know for me the a lot of the growth also is just ads of course if the
15:00 - 15:30 economy slows that would affect them a little bit uh and then there is retail you know selling selling stuff people are still going to still going to buy stuff it's just the suppliers will be different and so I don't really see the huge impact there unless again the economy slows tremendously and then for me Amazon is also a big robotics play they have almost a million robots working in their warehouses right and and and and counting so again great business getting cheaper right that's one way of looking at it now doesn't feel great if you're in it right now we
15:30 - 16:00 haven't hit the August lows yet where the market already collapsed so that's you know again entirely possible that was in the 150s and that was a beautiful beautiful shiny uh buying opportunity uh our exit call up here at 220 again rules rules rules rules rules about exits that was a good position because if you done that well you could buy back Amazon 50 bucks cheaper so you'd end up with 25% more Amazon shares right appreciate because we haven't done that yet so it isn't very useful but I just want to instill that in you that there
16:00 - 16:30 is purpose to risk management if you want to do really well and you want to do better than than most which is I think what we should be aiming for google um yeah similar story honestly we can run through this one a little bit more quickly gap right volume growing and we closed at the very bottom of the day trading range so eh on uh on three counts there so we're not really liking that particularly so it's definitely a
16:30 - 17:00 falling knife our exit signal up here in trade vision at 190 was a was a good call so maybe you want to get yourself that exit signal it also looks like a huge kind of head and shoulder pattern here like if you if you zoomed out I mean you know like that sort of thing which which would make it likely that we're going to go much lower we're below the September low um we are heading for early January 2024 valuations in that sort of 130ish zone right now so again be a little bit careful out there now Meta again think
17:00 - 17:30 about this why would Meta be affected by tariffs do they sell anything physically yeah just a little bit but not really part big part of their business this is an advertising business it's basically the newspapers of of of today uh big gap big gap huge volume so three strikes and you're out um a little bit of dip buying here happening but not not a great deal to be honest with you so this doesn't look good but it's just fear it's just
17:30 - 18:00 people saying we think the economy is going to collapse now this is actually a beautiful textbook head and shoulders pattern like really really really beautiful how does how do these work well they're quite simple really that let me just get rid of what I say simple um appreciate it that it's not simple the first time you see it but once you see it you can never unsee it you want to connect the armpits see what I'm saying here so just to make this a little bit prettier so this is your um
18:00 - 18:30 this is your head right this is your head this is uh your head this is your left shoulder this is your right shoulder and then this is armpit one this is armpit two you draw a straight line through that and then when you cross below that armpit line you know it gets pretty unpleasant and smelly and hairy uh and and that's what's happening here and that's a big big big big big big sell signal did I did I make that sufficiently clear uh so that's not a good thing right so yes Meta here giving
18:30 - 19:00 us some nice textbook stuff tesla now are they affected by tariffs again you got to just zoom out for a moment here right and we're we're trading back again in basically pre-election valuations same thing we just went up so the this was the election boost because he was pals with with with Trump and then whoops he's pals with Trump so Tesla
19:00 - 19:30 makes 100% of their US cars in the US 70% of parts are American so there is obviously on the other 30% there's going to be a bit of a tariff impact but there are exemptions on car components um so probably not very much affected now what about the cars that they make in in Europe well they make them in Europe what about the cars that they make in China well they make them in China with almost 100% Chinese components so the
19:30 - 20:00 retaliatory tariffs from China for example don't affect Tesla because they're not importing anything from the US into China so pretty well isolated from a business certainly the best setup car company out there from that point of view so what is it all about it's just um it's uh it's propaganda doing its thing and I know some of you guys are losing your in the comments when I say that it is propaganda when a government is so corrupt that it makes you believe that
20:00 - 20:30 auditing the government is uh is a terrible thing and that checking where your tax dollars go is a terrible thing you know that corruption has won that's all I'd say right so if they're starting to slash you know social programs and so on like of course violently disagree with it not violently but you know just disagree with it and that's all good but the fact that you're checking and you're eliminating waste when you are a taxpayer and you're against it means you're a special kind of stupid
20:30 - 21:00 sorry but it's true isn't it just zoom out so just forget the politics just just look at the numbers that's always what I try to do and I I love days where like yesterday I got accused of being a Trump hater and a Trump supporter in the same day i'm neither i don't care and I was bagging on you know Biden i was taking the piss out of him and then people accused me of that and then I take the piss out of the orange one you have in the office now people it's for me it's not about politics it's about
21:00 - 21:30 how do I make the most money in the safest way for me and my family so that my offspring never have to work um and and and and that I am continue to be happily retired because my money works for me in a safe way so the S&P all right good old S&P friend here let me just um take everything off and uh let's look at a at a clean chart here so the pattern that we've had from October
21:30 - 22:00 23 when the sort of recovery really came up if you were to connect as many lows as you possibly could that was sort of your path right that was your forever higher path and then we broke that in late February which was your early warning sign and then we crossed the 200 day moving average line in uh here and I bought a little bit of the dip there i did because it was good it was cheap um fear was relatively low and now we've gone a lot lower so do I regret that no
22:00 - 22:30 because I buy that with a long-term horizon so you got to separate index funds so an index is not the same thing as a stock right why a stock can go to zero right the index cannot the index has is always going to go up in the long run it'll always go up might go up for some time but it'll always go up in the long run so therefore buying the index at these levels where we are below the 200 day
22:30 - 23:00 moving average line provided that fear isn't through the roof which is what it is right now which is saying to me wait um provided we do that we tend to make a lot of money now what do I see in the last two days well big gap down the next day another gap down volume is going up so more people are selling so panic is kicking in and this isn't just panic this is probably margin calls because people are just getting caught out with their trousers down and and how
23:00 - 23:30 do you avoid that by actually having exit rules don't use leverage without exit rules don't buy individual stocks without exit rules if you just buy the index you just keep buying the index every month and you'll be fine you you you'll do the average of the of of of what the market's done and now what's the what's the average of the of the market done here now in the last u two years approximately um we're still
23:30 - 24:00 up 25 24.8% sorry we're up 5.8% only is that in the last year now and what does that say um yeah since January 2022 the S&P is now up 5.8% so that's average right if you just applied a little bit of risk management you'd be up 20% more and that is what I want to get for you i I I want you to learn that i want you to understand that
24:00 - 24:30 why are there certain points where we sell and you see we make it very simple here in Trade Vision for you we actually tell you where the bearish signals sit right now you shouldn't blindly follow an indicator you still want to understand the rules so you know watch the master class down below and that way you actually learn the rules but it's all about risk management it's about preventing the big draw down that we're seeing here right now so at 500 505 this is getting it's getting rather sticky uh we're almost in bare market territory almost what's bare market territory it's it's a 20% drop basically from the from
24:30 - 25:00 the peak here and we're at this point you know 17% down now what about the NASDAQ well the NASDAQ is already in bare market territory because we are 21% down from the from the peak um and again there were exit rules up here at 517 right and and and in hindsight yeah you can always tell this in hindsight it's all about hindsight you can do this live um and what then happened is that we dropped below this 200 day moving average line here that one we recovered
25:00 - 25:30 and then we bounced off it and I made a video on that and I said that guys this is bad news this is really bad news this is not good right so um you know stop the dip buying and and and now we've got and I'm not saying I always know i'm not saying I'm always right i'm just saying there are rules that the most successful investors in the world use and follow and because they all know them they actually work well they have some logical sequence behind them as well so learn them in the master class down below so yeah two gaps down massive
25:30 - 26:00 volume this is not pretty so where are we now we were at August very bottom of August levels when Japan collapsed we're also you know April levels uh could we go lower yeah I think you know we might find ourselves back in the sort of October 23 thing provided the market starts worrying about a recession then I think we're going to be go back into the into the 360 zone here unless and that's always the the
26:00 - 26:30 proviso that there's a huge agreement suddenly on trade tariffs but I think it's going to take a little bit longer right most politicians around the world are fairly slowmoving beasts now palanteer here has actually done quite a lot better than most really I mean okay the stock's still down 39% from the top but it has on the tariff news here not moved that much right so you know we're still down here but not not like monstrously um so we're still in the in
26:30 - 27:00 the in the 11th of March lows um why because Poland isn't really affected by tariffs um their commercial customer base is mostly American their government contracts are government contracts they'll still be there military contracts will still be there so it doesn't really affect them much now and I was literally talking to uh some investors on this yesterday some friends of mine and who run some pretty pretty
27:00 - 27:30 sizable outfits uh in in in finance world and and he was saying "Well what about Palante?" And I said "Yeah I I love the stock but it's just it's trading at I don't know 200 times next year's PE or something so I I can't see this going you know 10x." Um so but it is a much much better setup at present than than most um and and it you know it's still pretty close to the 50-day moving average line so I think there is an opportunity in US domestic software that mostly supplies US companies um but it's a little too
27:30 - 28:00 early for the opportunity because we're still you know getting pulled down here pretty significantly 11% on on Friday now PayPal um again the you see that purple trend line here that was sort of the longerterm trend line uh we gapped below that up here at about $85 where we gave it a bearish signal that was kind of the you know please do something about this uh kind of moment massive volume and then we've dropped below the 200 that
28:00 - 28:30 was another exit signal there and then again like with many of the stocks that we're seeing today we have had two gaps down in the last two days we had volume exploding into sale and um does PayPal get affected by tariffs well somewhat if people buy less stuff online because the economy slows down then yes but also not that much because people when they're tightening their belts might actually buy more stuff online because it's cheaper so I don't
28:30 - 29:00 think there is a huge impact here from a recessionary scenario um they did just announce some cool stuff around crypto um you can now pay with Bitcoin and you can put a Salana and something else in your your PayPal wallet um cost the market's going to completely ignore that at this point um but again it's one of those businesses that is just fundamentally printing cash um trading at an undervalue so I like it but what is important is when do you get in on it
29:00 - 29:30 right so we got in on it here we rode up the rally here and then we exited somewhere up here uh and now we're back to where we started so I'm looking at this with a great big smile because I'm thinking we probably get to do this again right um so second chance to make a lot of money on PayPal is coming up but it's too early what about SoFi does SoFi import goods does SoFi uh export goods does SoFi uh have a large international customer base no of course
29:30 - 30:00 not it's a basically a US business started off as student loans and now does you know general financial services like a bank would so why are they down well you could argue that the recession is coming and therefore uh SoFi is going to get hit people not going to pay their mortgage you know their their loans and so on now SoFi has shifted most of their loan book to other people which is always a rather smart move so you collect fees and then you just sell on
30:00 - 30:30 the the problem um generally speaking SoFi's borrowers are very high credit quality so probably not a big deal plus they pretty much baked in into their forecasts a recession already because these guys are very very conservative anthony so does this sell off make sense to me no no fundamentally it doesn't it's trading at $957 which means we're back to October levels when was our breakout actually at the same price level i remember buying SoFi around 980
30:30 - 31:00 uh here at the breakout um and then we ran it up took some profits and then um went sideways and look the market's a pattern market move up market zigzag sideways and at that point they either decide to go up or they decide to go down you just got to wait for the signal once you know what the signal looks like you act accordingly so you know we acted accordingly uh and and and the more you see this I hope it more it inspires you just to learn those basic three rules and therefore be in much much more control and sleep better and you know potentially make a lot more money
31:00 - 31:30 so any silver lining on SoFi yeah yeah we look we were trading at about below $9 and we recovered about 80 cents so that's a little bit of optimism there but it's still it's a gap down so it's not a pretty thing i think that might have been a gap too just a little one so it's still you know not three strikes essentially now what about the the excitement of of flying things um I I do think that robotics and Eve tolls and
31:30 - 32:00 and and that whole space is going to be a huge winner coming out of like the whole AI tech breakthrough and guess what archer is still trading above its 200 day moving average line bounced off that line gives us a little bit of support a little bit but of course it's still pretty painful sell-off thing here right so um we call the breakout here which always says to you you know that's an interesting one look at it and then you'd want to set up some risk
32:00 - 32:30 management by just literally following some really really simple rules if you'd done that you would have made some money on that um and and and does that mean right now is the time to buy Archer because it's cheap no no no cheap is a myth because cheap is relative right this was a stock that was trading at um $2.90 in September and it's possible that we can go back there i'm not saying that we will but if we do I'll be very
32:30 - 33:00 happy and then I'll wait for the next breakout and then we make money again on the rally up so we buy it here we sell it there we make 46% that is actually better than buying the falling thing hoping and praying and wishing and that in the long run it'll somehow make us some money because what we can do with the money in the meantime like right now with the cash that we've got from selling Archer which I literally did then I am now looking and hunting for the opportunities and
33:00 - 33:30 um if I didn't have any cash it' be a little harder right so having some cash from things you make money out of is a good What do you mean more cash what about quantum computing rietti computing which I still think should be Italian it's really a shame it's really a missed branding opportunity I think you know um a quantum computer that powers an espresso machine and a big breakout here that crazy rally up um monstrous rally up huge huge huge huge gap down here right that was a that was just a horrible
33:30 - 34:00 thing um again we're above the 200 day moving average line so actually these sectors these kind of leading new technology sectors are not as hard hit um as you might think compared to you know your metas and your Microsofts and so on but I'd be very careful with this because Regetti is a little bit like a like a GameStop or something right now which bizarrely I think actually went up yesterday uh on on no fundamental logic um it actually yeah it actually went up 11% yesterday so which just means
34:00 - 34:30 um some silly bugger is is is is playing that and hoping to make some money out of it but yeah stay away from these very risky things right now the market will punish high-risk stocks if we go lower and there's a fairly good likelihood that we will um so what I would watch out for in in simple terms is watch out for the VIX right watch this come back down below 20 that's the moment when we start dip buying again at least I do you
34:30 - 35:00 can have a look at the darkpool as well which we have in here on the on the right just click on darkpool and and then you can just track like literally live it comes a minute by minute during the trading day like what's what are the big boys doing these are millions and millions of dollars right 10 16 11 million this is all Wall Street insider trades that they're doing in private exchanges and uh just tell me whether the market is bearish or bullish right just literally read out how many bearishes you see and and that tells you quite a lot about market sentiment so that's definitely something that I've
35:00 - 35:30 got to keep an eye on and and those two indicators give us some pretty good indication and just don't open the brokerage over the weekend go for a walk enjoy yourself every crash is followed by a rally um but what you want to be doing is my humble opinion use the pain and discomfort this is causing you and I appreciate it's causing you that and I don't want that for you to just sit down and learn some good risk management so that you are better set up to come out of this and that you are amazingly well set up the next time this happen and by
35:30 - 36:00 the way we get a we get a pretty big draw down 10% about once a year so it's not like this is a skill you're never going to use in your life you're going to use this once a year and it's going to make you a lot more money if you got some value out of this video share it with your friends post it on social media share it with your golden retriever and um I wish you all the best come on in here come on in your favorite stocks have taken a beating this week as fresh tariffs have
36:00 - 36:30 gripped Wall Street but smart money is looking beyond the daily swings to what are these companies actually up to are they getting better while they're getting cheaper