Boot Camp Day 4: Trends

Summary

Highlights

• TJR dives into the importance of trend analysis for trading success. 🚀
• He compares market trends to a rolling basketball, driven by momentum. 🏀
• Identifies key trend indicators: higher highs/lows for uptrends, and lower highs/lows for downtrends. 🔄
• Advises focusing on high-timeframe trends for more credible market guidance. 📈
• Emphasizes learning on a small scale first by concentrating on one or two asset pairs. 🎯

Key Takeaways

• Understanding trends is crucial for predicting market movements. 📈
• Trends are like a basketball rolling on a flat surface; they continue in a direction due to momentum. 🏀
• Highs and lows indicate trends; higher highs and lows suggest an uptrend, while lower highs and lows suggest a downtrend. 🔄
• Use high-timeframe trends for more reliable analysis; don't get bogged down by short-term noise. 📊
• Focus on one or two asset pairs to master trend analysis before expanding to more. 🎯

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction and Overview of Trends This chapter is an introduction to the concept of trends in the market as part of a boot camp program, believed to be on day four. The speaker briefly mentions previous sessions that covered candlesticks and discipline, and emphasizes the importance of understanding trends. The speaker appears prepared with notes on their phone to guide the discourse on market trends, ensuring a focused discussion without digressions.
• 00:30 - 01:00: Importance of Understanding Trends The chapter titled 'Importance of Understanding Trends' emphasizes the necessity of comprehending fundamental yet seemingly simple concepts as a precursor to tackling complex tasks such as strategy and execution. The discussion highlights that without a basic understanding of trends and the ability to interpret them, such as reading a candlestick chart, mastering more advanced skills becomes extremely challenging. The chapter serves as a foundational reminder that grasping these core concepts is crucial to successfully executing larger, strategic actions.
• 01:00 - 02:00: Explanation of Market Trends The chapter titled 'Explanation of Market Trends' emphasizes the importance of understanding market trends for anyone involved in the market. It begins by explaining why trends matter—they dictate the direction in which the market is heading. Markets operate based on momentum, and once they start trending in a particular direction, they are likely to continue that way. The chapter aims to define what a market trend is, introducing it as a core concept that is pivotal for predicting market movements.
• 02:00 - 05:00: Spotting and Understanding Trends This chapter explains the concept of trends using an analogy of a basketball rolling on a flat surface. Just as a basketball continues to roll due to momentum, markets also trend when they experience a push or a market structure shift.
• 05:00 - 06:00: Trading with Trends This chapter focuses on understanding market trends and their importance in trading. It emphasizes that recognizing market trends is crucial for determining the market's direction. Spotting trends is described as one of the simplest yet fundamental skills in day trading. While discussing the concept, the transcript suggests that when the market trends higher, certain actions can be taken, though there is an acknowledgment of a mistake mid-explanation, leaving some details unclear.
• 06:00 - 09:00: Higher vs. Lower Time Frames The chapter discusses the concept of trends in trading, particularly focusing on the visualization of trends through candlesticks on charts. It explains how trends are identified by higher highs and higher lows in their patterns. The chapter promises to show real-life examples of these trends on charts to provide a clearer understanding. It describes the simplified version of a trend by illustrating that when a trend moves past a high, it creates a new high higher than the previous one and similarly creates new lows higher than the previous lows.
• 09:00 - 12:00: Mistakes and Solutions This chapter discusses the principles of identifying trends in trading charts, particularly focusing on recognizing patterns of higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, and lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend. The explanation uses a practical and accessible approach, acknowledging the potential for mistakes and emphasizing the importance of trend lines until the trend breaks. The speaker uses informal language and humor to relate the process of chart analysis to the listener.
• 12:00 - 17:00: Understanding Market Structure The chapter 'Understanding Market Structure' discusses the concept of a downtrend in market analysis. It describes a downtrend as a pattern where each successive low is lower than the previous low, and each successive high is lower than the previous high. The emphasis is on recognizing these trends as a key part of understanding market dynamics, suggesting that once the pattern is grasped, it becomes easy to identify them in various market situations.
• 17:00 - 26:00: Homework Assignment The chapter titled 'Homework Assignment' delves into market analysis and structure. It begins by focusing on recent market changes, particularly in daily market movements. The narrative highlights a recent market structure break, suggesting it is significant for analysis. The description offers a brief glimpse into the methodical approach to market scrutiny.
• 26:00 - 28:00: Conclusion and Motivation The chapter discusses a repetitive pattern of rising highs and lows, emphasizing on the progression of achieving higher highs and higher lows before eventually encountering a lower low. This could possibly serve as a metaphorical illustration or analysis within the conclusion to highlight cyclical trends or the inevitable encounter with challenges after periods of success.

Boot Camp Day 4: Trends Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 yo what's good welcome to boot camp I believe day four now and today is going to be another trading day Okay so we talked about candlesticks and then we had two talks on discipline hopefully you guys learned something from that hopefully you guys did your homework but today we are going to be talking about Trends we're just going to jump right into it no reason for us to sit around okay I have some notes on my phone so I don't get lost in my own thoughts but we'll just jump right in okay so Trends within the market again you're probably
• 00:30 - 01:00 going to say oh my God this is recap I know we have to cover these super basic simple [ __ ] before do I have bed bugs um no okay um but before uh we actually get into the difficult stuff like strategy and actually executing okay um because all of these little things end up being like the the massive umbrella over these small things that you try and master you try and master strategy you try and master execution but you don't even know where the trends going you can't even read a Candlestick okay so how do you expect to perform in
• 01:00 - 01:30 the market if you don't understand these simple things so with that being said let's talk about Trends okay so the first first point that I want to talk about why do we even care about the trend because it dictates where the market is going okay markets move off of momentum okay so once once Market starts trending okay odds are it's going to continue in that direction okay so what even is a trend in the first place okay um a trend is literally it's it's almost like
• 01:30 - 02:00 um you have a basketball on a flat surface and you just push it right it's going to roll and Roll and Roll and Roll okay um because of that momentum that's pushing it Forward okay same thing with Market okay when Market gets a little push or a market structure shift it's going to start trending okay so whoa glitching this is why I need my PC which is coming in like three weeks but I ordered it and it's on
• 02:00 - 02:30 its way um but anyways why do we care about the TR the trend because it tells us exactly where Market's going okay so the very first thing that we need to understand is how can we spot a trend within the market and it's honestly one of the easiest and one of the most simple things um taught in day trading okay so when Market is trending higher okay we can do this that was terrible but when Market is trending higher there we
• 02:30 - 03:00 go put a little cap on it it moves in higher highs and higher lows right it'll look something like this just with a bunch of little candlesticks in the way and and we'll show real life examples of this on charts but right this is like a very simplified version of a trend right this is a high this is a low when it pushes past this High it makes a new high that's higher than the previous one and it makes a new low that's higher than the previous one okay
• 03:00 - 03:30 so higher highs and higher lows right just like that and it continues all the way until it breaks its Trend okay so same thing with the downtrend just the exact opposite Okay so for downtrends it is lower highs and lower lows oops that is honestly what a chart could look like though shrink okay that was terrible I had to do it with like my
• 03:30 - 04:00 other finger but because I don't have a mouse yet okay so right downtrend very similar we have a high right here then we make a low right here let's say we had a low here as well and we had low right here right this low is lower than this one this high is lower than this one and it continues okay and it's really easy to see these trends what oh oops it's really easy to well you guys got the point um it's really easy to see these Trends
• 04:00 - 04:30 within markets okay so right if we just go to the Daily right here okay we see or this is just a most more recent breaking structure we can um we can highlight this one right here okay so right down over here
• 04:30 - 05:00 okay we have boom a high then a low boom what do we get a higher high than a higher low then boom what do we get a higher high a higher low okay boom what do we get a higher high a higher low oh boom higher high higher low higher high higher high now lower low because we just surpassed this so what can we
• 05:00 - 05:30 assume that Market's going to do now that it broke structure it's probably going to flip its direction right let me get all these drawings off of here so it looks better but you can see that right once we broke structure and changed direction of the trend we continued that for a while right and now that we just broke structure odds are we're going to start trending in the opposite direction for a little bit okay so with this understanding what what can this help us do Trends give us the overall idea of where Market is going is it exactly how
• 05:30 - 06:00 we're going to execute every single time no right we we that's not how we're just we're not just going to go okay once the once the high gets pushed above we're going to enter a trade right that's how you can get stopped out there's there's a bunch of problems with that and we want to optimize our entry however the trend is Pretty much telling us what direction to place our trades in okay because if Market is trending in One Direction why in the world right if Market is trending to the upside why in the world would you try and take a trade
• 06:00 - 06:30 to the downside if the momentum is pushing it to the upside wouldn't you want to ride that wave wouldn't you want to you know be be on right it's like um it's like if you're in a car right if you're in a car and you don't have a gas or a brake pedal and you want to get to and you want to get to a certain point okay there's two there's two roads that you can take uphill or down Hill okay which which car are you going to get in the one that's going uphill or downhill
• 06:30 - 07:00 if you want to get to the end of that road you're probably going to want to go downhill right because the momentum will just take you there instantly versus if you try and go uphill you're not going anywhere right it's very similar with with trading and these Trends okay you want to be able to follow this wave okay follow the momentum because that's where price is going to go either way right there's no reason to try and catch a retracement because one you don't know how far or how deep that retracement is like this right here we had a very small logo
• 07:00 - 07:30 formed here and this we had a very big low but the but the extension is always the same the extension always goes past the high right we see the high get pushed through high get pushed through high get pushed through high get pushed through every single time high gets pushed through okay so with that being said wouldn't it make sense for us to follow that momentum okay so that is our goal if you can identify a trend okay which most of you guys should most of you guys should be
• 07:30 - 08:00 able to do that because it's a fairly um beginner um beginner subject all right but you want to follow these overarching Trends okay and when I say overarching Trends this is where it gets kind of tricky because people get so caught up in all these different time frames okay they see different Trends on a bunch of different time frames right there's there could be there could be a hundred different Trend switches and changes on the 15 minute over the course of this weekly uptrend
• 08:00 - 08:30 that we outlined right there's probably way more than that there's probably like a couple thousand different Trend switches and changes within that Weekly up uptrend on the 15-minute time frame and that's where people go wrong a lot of the times they get so caught up on these small time frames saying oh the 15 minute broke structure but but higher time frames hold higher power if the four hour is saying no we're bearish we're bearish right now it's going to go lower and lower and lower but the 15 minute just broke
• 08:30 - 09:00 structure why do we care about what the 15 minute is saying right we want to we want to use the 15-minute in Confluence with the with the higher Trend so right if the four hour if the daily if the weekly is telling us that market is going to go down in the 15 minutes telling us Market's going to go up why don't we just wait for the 15 minute to tell us okay Market's going to go down now right that would make sense because then we can follow the trend of the market okay and then also scale down to the
• 09:00 - 09:30 shorter term time frames right because we know that these high time frames are going to push price in that direction but we want an optimize entry right that's what I was just talking about we want to go on these lower time frames and be able to catch the large High time frame Trend moves but with an optimized entry Okay so that is why Trends are so important they they literally help optimize your entry and help push price in the direction that you want price to go right going against the trend is never smart and
• 09:30 - 10:00 this has honestly been one of my one of my biggest struggles and issues in trading is trading against the trend and trading against my bias I'm very good at being able to spot okay this is where Market wants to go um you know like this is I know where Market wants to go on a high time frame it's pretty easy to spot however when I get onto these smaller time frames I'm like oh wait wait a second this could be a little liquidity sweep and then a retracement but that's the issue right we can't be trading off of retracements
• 10:00 - 10:30 we have to be trading off of um we have we have to be trading off of um [ __ ] what we we have to be trading off of momentum I'm sorry I just space the [ __ ] out for a second okay so trade with the trend the trend is your friend I know it's I know it's stupid but it's very very true okay the trend is your friend and you're probably going to say well wait tjr I thought you trade off of liquidity sweeps I thought you trade off of Trends
• 10:30 - 11:00 changing yes we do but on Lower time frames right we trade off of that on Lower time frame so if we see a liquidity sweep and if we see like a liquidity sweep on the 30 minute time frame and then a break of structure to the downside on the five minute time frame in the four hour and the daily are saying bear bear bear bear that's great that's perfect that means that we just caught the top of a of the next leg down okay that's why we trade the that's why I trade the way that I do okay so now
• 11:00 - 11:30 that we understand how to read a trend how to spot them right it's literally just higher highs and higher lows and uh the next trading video will will jump into break of structure because that's going to be huge okay I might even do two trading videos on that because people do seem to get confused on it which is pretty interesting because it is a fairly fairly simple concept to grasp but I do want to make sure people cover people understand it because it's it is very very important when understanding these markets and how they
• 11:30 - 12:00 move and how structure shifts and how transform and how you know just markets are moving in general okay um so the trend is your friend trade with the trend right obviously it's hard for me to say at this point in the boot camp it's hard for me to be like yeah the downtrend it's it's hard for me to tell you like exactly where and when to execute because we don't have all the pieces yet right this is just giving an overall umbrella right find that
• 12:00 - 12:30 overall umbrella and in again we need to start on these main overarching themes to get to get lower and lower and lower and more exact so we can be able to master these small precise things within price action but we have to understand the basics first okay so right what what have we learned so far we know how to identify a trend literally higher highs higher lows lower highs lower lows okay there is another way that market trends and this just reminded me of it it's
• 12:30 - 13:00 through consolidation okay there's three different ways that Market Market moves okay it's either through Trends or just consolidation right look at this within here right okay we we see a higher high and then we see a higher low but right like this is not a trend when do we know that Market's trending if it if it continued higher like this right but no it just stayed like this stat it was static stagnant didn't make
• 13:00 - 13:30 a move until boom right here what happens okay we're making highs before before this break we were going higher and higher right then we chop it up boom we break we break the floor we break the low we change Market structure and and you'll you'll understand that when we get to the break of structure and Market structure portion but we break the low and then what happens okay we have high right here low right here high right
• 13:30 - 14:00 here boom Market structure shift right now what are we in we're in a downtrend okay so what can we assume that Gold's going to do right we came back up here high low lower high lower low lower high what's next probably a lower low targeting this area of liquidity which we will get into eventually right but again see how we just see how I was able to just take a very simple overarching subject and
• 14:00 - 14:30 literally like this is you like this is some of you could be trading like this and be profitable you don't believe me [ __ ] try it some of you guys can trade this ideally right we don't trade this way so we get more optimized entries right so we can have tighter stop losses right so we can get higher risk reward trades but some of you guys can trade like this
• 14:30 - 15:00 if the [ __ ] that I trade if the [ __ ] that I teach doesn't make sense to you you can still do the basics okay you can still do the basics all right so there we go we we know how to identify a trend okay we know that it shifts momentum within the market it shifts Market structure okay and and it tells us the direction that market wants to go okay we cannot be caught up notice how when I identified that Trend again that trend is is on like the 30 minute okay but but it's following it's
• 15:00 - 15:30 following the daily Trend right we have boom High lower high we have a low right here and another lower high and then boom lower low another lower high lower low probably in the process of forming another lower high just to form another lower low right the daily is telling us lower lower lower lower lower lower perfect so when we scale down onto onto
• 15:30 - 16:00 a smaller time frame we can say okay where does price want to go we know on the high time frame it wants to go down we're on a small time frame wouldn't it make sense for us to want to catch you know the big massive wave and not these little Ticky tacks to the upside right we would want to find something that's going down right to continue that daily trend right so how are we how are we going to do that right literally literally just finding shorts finding shorts on a short on a
• 16:00 - 16:30 small time frame and we'll get there we'll get to the point where we can where we can execute we're not there yet okay because we just started and and hopefully you guys can be patient with this but trust me this will benefit you if you because I I see so many people there's a reason why you're losing in these markets guys there's a reason why you're losing every [ __ ] day because you're not taking these basic simple very very important strategies not even strategies just Concepts you're you're throwing them out you're you're going You're Going completely off of liquidity
• 16:30 - 17:00 so you break off structure must enter there's a liquidity sweep and break if I could go on the one minute time frame and find a million liquidity sweeps and breaks up breaks of structure all throughout in here all in here all in here I could I could do that a million times within this right some of you guys are entering off of these little Ticky tack things and it's like no no that isn't going to get you winning
• 17:00 - 17:30 trades that's not going to get you high probability trades what do you think is more high probability taking a liquidity sweep and a breakup structure off of purely five minute price action off of purely a five minute Trend and maybe like the help and the Confluence of the hourly or understanding where price wants to go long term maybe on the four hour or the daily at least right because we're working with intraday price action at least nowhere that where where we're going for the day
• 17:30 - 18:00 right because if you don't know where price wants to go for the day you're going to lose if you cannot understand where price wants to go for that single day and you are trading intraday trades if you are if most of your trades last a couple hours if not a couple minutes you need to know where the where price wants to go on the day okay and that's and that's where understanding and knowing the trend matters okay you have to be able to understand that okay user use your Trend to your
• 18:00 - 18:30 advantage okay when looking for small time frame trades that's what I had written down okay let's see if I missed anything um where is the market going we understand that right literally just by reading the trend and all guys like something something that really helped me when I was first learning this look simplifies the [ __ ] out of it where's Mark Young high low high low higher high higher low higher high higher low higher high higher low higher lot right oh we get a trend shift right high low
• 18:30 - 19:00 oops let me let me remove this right we see high low lower high lower low lower high lower low lower high not a lower low okay we push a little bit higher continue right and when that happens right what can we assume it's just retracement on a higher time frame now what's this high low lower high
• 19:00 - 19:30 lower low okay right we're understanding okay and then boom right what happens High gets pushed above now what higher higher low higher high big dive okay use use the the line chart to your advantage okay like if we're looking at the 15 we scale down into this can tell you right doesn't this look a lot simpler
• 19:30 - 20:00 to be honest some of you guys really should be using this right this this makes this [ __ ] so much easier right oh we're looking for it to hit equilibrium let's not get caught up in all the candlesticks okay perfect we're we're in a premium right now now what are we looking for okay we're looking for a trend shift on the five minute okay or the 15 minute whatever you want okay we're just waiting for these lows to get pushed pushed down
• 20:00 - 20:30 below right we're doing this we're chopping up we're consolidating right now because this was from Friday right Market just ended it needs some volume to come in um today because today is Sunday uh during the Asian session or sorry yeah during Asian session in London session and then once New York session kicks in we'll be able to understand where price wants to go from there but some of you guys could really benefit from taking out the color of the candlesticks okay and just identifying
• 20:30 - 21:00 right where where is Price going super easy just to zoom out on a high time frame and just look where was Market going down so so why in the world would you want to look for longs in this we're looking for shorts notice how right the moves the moves higher are always smaller than the moves lower the moves higher are always smaller than the
• 21:00 - 21:30 moves lower if you measure it in every single Trend because that's how Trend works right that's how Trends work lower highs lower lows the lows are always lower than the previous ones the highs are always lower than the previous highs the highs are not going higher in a downtrend and same thing with an uptrend right in an uptrend the lows are not going lower than the previous lows it's higher highs and higher lows so why are we trying to trade the opposite things
• 21:30 - 22:00 move with the momentum move with the trend and you will be able to catch bigger Longer higher time frame moves on a smaller time frame okay that is what this is all about okay this is this was a very very simple exercise and very simple thing but hopefully you guys learn from this and please do not forget it because I know I forget it occasionally and that's when that's when I lose trades that's when I [ __ ] up okay and my biggest thing my biggest recovery from
• 22:00 - 22:30 from you know like having like a losing week my losing week was because I was getting so caught up in the small time frames I was not looking at the high time frames I I was I didn't even care where the higher time frames wanted to go I didn't care at all okay but that was my issue okay the second that I can start understanding okay the higher time frame wants to do this how can I find an optimized entry to to ride that next wave that comes down right to ride that next boom
• 22:30 - 23:00 [ __ ] dump waterfall down when can I get that next okay that's that's how you can get those good high-risk reward high quality high probability trades okay so do not take these early lessons lightly I know I know you guys really want to jump right into the strategy but trust me the strategy is purely a step-by-step plan on how to execute if you can't understand this if you can't understand
• 23:00 - 23:30 what price is telling you through candlesticks what makes you think that you will know when when to enter a trade if you don't even know where the Market's going in the first place because the step-by-step rule all those steps those can be applied in either direction high or low or going higher going lower right I could find a trade in both directions using that strategy on the same [ __ ] on the same move
• 23:30 - 24:00 right it's understanding where the market wants to go though you have to understand where Market wants to go okay trade with the direction of the market because the market isn't going to move for you right we see people blowing on their screens please go higher please go higher please Bowl please Bowl right like the market isn't going to listen to you it's going to do what it wants and it's going to follow its own path Okay so with that being said homework for today
• 24:00 - 24:30 I literally just want you guys to go on whatever pair you use and identify for this upcoming trading week okay because this is going to be posted on Monday all right identify for this upcoming trading week where you think price is going to go okay make in make a prediction okay based off of what you know what you know currently or or just the bare minimum that you've learned so far from this course okay identify where
• 24:30 - 25:00 PR where you think price wants to go for the week okay and then after that scale down to a lower time frame and then identify okay right so you're going to start off where does price want to go for the week okay make that prediction write it down please Journal this write down where you think price is going to go choose just one or two pairs okay it can be either be the S P 500 gold GJ gu whatever you want
• 25:00 - 25:30 okay just identify where you think price wants to go for the week okay and then once you do that once you identify this is where price wants to go for the week cool um once you do that scale down to the Daily then say okay where where is Price going to go in the next couple days because you can make an accurate prediction on the week but does that mean you'll you'll be able to be accurate on these lower time frames you know Okay so where does one skill in the week where
• 25:30 - 26:00 is the draw of liquidity and we'll talk about that sooner or later okay eventually right we just need to cover these super simple things first okay where does price want to go in the week where does price want to go in the next couple days and then where does price want to go today where is Price going to go today and then if you are capable if you already know my strategy if you already know how to trade draft up a trade based off of those biases and it only has to be just one trade okay right where do
• 26:00 - 26:30 you think price is going to go for the week perfect do you understand that bias now where is Price going to go the next couple days perfect do you understand that bias okay where is Price going currently where's price going currently right everything on gold says it's going to go down but currently price is going up so what's it giving us an opportunity to do find an area in which we can go short okay so we're going to look for an opportunity to predict to project where price wants
• 26:30 - 27:00 to go I don't even want you to draft up a trade I don't want you to have a stop loss I don't even want you to set up this position thing on it I literally just want you to use the forecast tool drag it from wherever price is at right now and show where price wants to go just like that just like that and it's okay if price goes a little bit higher and then fulfills your your targets okay because at least you knew where price wanted to
• 27:00 - 27:30 go right the execution will come later and we'll talk about when we know when price is going to change direction in the market but this is a great step and this is a great learning point okay do this on one or two pairs right choose whatever your favorite two pairs are or if you only trade one pair only do it on that one if you trade three pairs only do it on two of them and throw the third one out okay you only need to be focused on one or two pairs this entire boot boot camp what makes you think you can understand multiple asset classes if you're already losing on 10 of them okay if you're losing on every single
• 27:30 - 28:00 one of them wouldn't it make sense for you to try and slow it down to try and simmer down right and try and focus on just one of them first instead of trying to study 10 or 20. it probably would make sense okay so that being said let's get to work all right do your homework I I I um advise you guys to experiment with a line chart to help um understand direction right because it's really easy just to scale back on these higher time frames and and literally just look where is Price going
• 28:00 - 28:30 right four hour where where is prize going it's going [ __ ] down okay over here where is Price going it's going [ __ ] up okay where is pricing going it's going down okay where is Price going it's going up right very easy right you don't even have to you don't even have to get all up in your head where's the higher higher higher low just look look where is Market going right it's as simple as that and we'll get to execution later okay so with that being said get your [ __ ] homework done right after you watch watch this video okay make sure you make sure you
• 28:30 - 29:00 keep trying to master your mind make sure you keep trying to improve okay and if you're watching this video I already know you're trying to improve so that's good good for you keep after it stay strong let's get this [ __ ] all right peace out I'll see you guys tomorrow