Is the Crypto Bull Run Over? My Portfolio Update after the Trump Storm

Summary

Highlights

• Trump's crypto policies are more ceremonial and marketing than impactful. 🎩
• The liquidity cycle is more crucial for altcoins than Bitcoin's halving cycles. 🔄
• Global economic conditions and Fed policies are key to market movements. 💼
• Expect potential market easing by Q4 as US debt issues pressure the Fed. 📅
• Don't chase short-term crypto narratives; patience is essential. 🕰️

Key Takeaways

• The crypto bull run isn't over; it's just delayed. 📈
• Trump's crypto announcements are largely noise with little real impact. 🗣️
• Global liquidity conditions, not Bitcoin cycles, are key for altcoin performance. 🌐
• Ignore short-term altcoin ETF filings; they don't guarantee immediate impact. 📑
• The Federal Reserve and liquidity constraints heavily influence the market. 💰
• Be patient and conserve capital; major moves aren't necessary now. 🕒

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 03:00: Introduction and Overview The chapter 'Introduction and Overview' discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, particularly focusing on altcoins. It notes that some people believe the cycle is over since they didn't profit. However, the narrator disagrees, suggesting instead that the market is experiencing a delayed cycle with indicators supporting this perspective.
• 03:00 - 09:00: Trump's Influence and Noise in the Market The chapter discusses the influence of Trump on the market, specifically focusing on the short-term volatility and noise caused by his actions and promises. Trump has been vocal about making America the leading crypto capital, which adds to the market noise. Despite these bold statements, the altcoin markets are struggling, and much of Trump's crypto policies may not have significant long-term effects.
• 09:00 - 15:00: Recession Fears and Economic Indicators The chapter discusses the influence of both tailwinds and headwinds on the current economic conditions, particularly in relation to the US Federal Reserve and the US Treasury's actions. It focuses on how these factors affect liquidity for the remaining part of the year and highlights the periods that may prove challenging or more manageable.
• 15:00 - 22:59: Global Liquidity and Federal Reserve's Role In this chapter, the focus is on understanding global liquidity and the Federal Reserve's role. The text begins by distinguishing between significant events and noise in the economic landscape that affect financial markets and, implicitly, global liquidity. The speaker intends to provide insights on why the current crypto cycle has been challenging, yet it signifies that there is potential for growth, especially in altcoins. The chapter promises to offer perspective on economic triggers and what to monitor for future market movements.
• 22:59 - 28:00: The Myth of Bitcoin Cycles and the Altcoin Bull Run The speaker, Dennis, introduces his channel as a platform where he, an experienced crypto investor, shares market trends and strategies for wealth building in cryptocurrency. He hints at providing a portfolio update by the end of the video.
• 28:00 - 33:00: Evaluating Global Liquidity Conditions for Crypto The chapter discusses the recent announcements and events impacting the crypto market, highlighted by the upcoming crypto Summit at the White House organized by the Trump Administration. The significance of this event is emphasized, along with the involvement of World Liberty Financial, a subsidiary known for its decentralized finance operations. The focus is on analyzing these developments amidst the market noise beyond just price fluctuations.
• 33:00 - 43:00: Actions for the Current Market The chapter discusses the involvement of the Trump family in the cryptocurrency market, particularly in owning substantial amounts of tokens on the blockchain. It highlights the frequent tweets made by the Trump family regarding altcoins, indicating that these are generally not official communications from the administration but rather from the Trump business side. The chapter suggests that these actions have little impact on the market as the patterns are evident.
• 43:00 - 55:00: Conclusion and Final Thoughts The conclusion emphasizes the idea of partnerships where both parties benefit monetarily, likening it to marketing. It advises not to overthink the significance of these partnerships. At the crypto Summit, the focus is on ceremonial recognition for major donors to Trump's campaign, acknowledging their financial contributions. It suggests that the event is primarily for symbolic purposes rather than substantial impact.

Is the Crypto Bull Run Over? My Portfolio Update after the Trump Storm Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 is the bll run over especially particularly for Al coins a lot of people are actually saying that this cycle is over and I cannot believe I didn't make money this cycle you know why are Al coins like this they're never going up and I just want to tell you that this is not what I believe is happening in fact I really believe we are in a right translated cycle a very delayed cycle and uh there are a lot of signs that point to this even though uh
• 00:30 - 01:00 when I'm doing my research there are also a lot of signs that points to short-term chop as well so uh we are certainly in historical times a lot of noise happening with Trump promising to make America the great crypto capital of the world and uh meanwhile the altcoin markets are suffering so I want to summarize with today's video about all the actions that came from Trump from his crypto policies a lot of them actually don't matter
• 01:00 - 01:30 uh and also the both the H uh Tailwinds and the headwinds that actually affect how we are getting this Bor run specifically uh coming from the fed and the US Treasury mainly around how liquidity is shaping up for the rest of this year which part of this year are going to be difficult and which parts are going to be um easier when can we expect that to
• 01:30 - 02:00 come and what kind of trigger events do we need to watch for so I'll tell you which events are important versus which events that are only noise and after covering all of this just briefly I just want to lay it out for you guys first then uh I'll give you guys my perspective on why this crypto cycle has felt so difficult but it's not over yet in fact it hasn't even truly begun yet for altcoins to have any sort of bull run at all uh but by the end I'll also
• 02:00 - 02:30 give you guys some perspective on my current portfolio nothing really has changed just yet but make sure to watch till the end if you want that update okay welcome back to the channel if you guys are new here my name is Dennis I'm a crypto Andro investor for the past six years and I have invested in over 100 crypto startups on this channel I share views on market trends and investing strategy to build wealth in crypto now let's get straight into it and I want to start off with with some
• 02:30 - 03:00 pointers on the noise that's currently happening in the market uh so aside from the price action this past week we have seen uh just announcement after announcement coming from the Trump Administration around the crypto Summit being held at the White House and apparently like this is a big event and uh you also have World Liberty Financial the subsidiary the defi companied ran by
• 03:00 - 03:30 the Trump family they are owning you know large amounts of uh tokens on chain uh a lot of this don't matter right so because the signs are there so first off every time that um the Trump family comes out and tweets about something about an altcoin most of the time it's not really coming from the administration it's instead from the Trump business organization so most of
• 03:30 - 04:00 the time it's a partnership where you know both sides are benefiting in some monetary way obviously it's think of it like marketing so I wouldn't read into this too much first of all and also um at the crypto Summit this is really more of a um what do you call it like a like a ceremonial event if you will for all of the big donors to Trump's campaign and the big contributors uh that really just have money that need to be recognized but that's about it so uh
• 04:00 - 04:30 even later on when Trump had uh already established a digital asset stockpile including Solana cardano xrp uh his spokes speaks uh spokesperson David saak the crypto Zar of the White House had to come out and say that uh the president just mentioned the top five cryptocurrencies by market cap so really this is not saying anything at all
• 04:30 - 05:00 uh and there's no official bill that says oh the US Treasury needs to buy this and this token uh worse yet we don't even have the Bitcoin strategic Reserve that actually buys any more Bitcoins on top of the existing Holdings I listened to Trump's uh crypto Summit as well in there he specifically said that uh his goal around the Bitcoin strategic Reserve is to not sell coin but he also
• 05:00 - 05:30 clearly said uh word by word that we don't want to cost any uh use any taxpayer dollars in our crypto initiative to buy Bitcoin so they're not even buying Bitcoin why would they buy any altcoins so none of that just makes any sense um and on top of that you have so many people around the Trump uh family that's just I don't know what they're doing like Eric Trump is literally tweeting for people to buy eth and then eth is down lot since last
• 05:30 - 06:00 month so I really would try to avoid a lot of the news uh around altcoins coming from the Trump administration at the current time because these are really small events what's driving the bigger um altcoin push that hasn't happened yet is around liquidity liquidity conditions this is what we have seen in the 2017 and 2021 cycle and so far we haven't seen that yet in this
• 06:00 - 06:30 cycle in terms of liquidity and we'll dive into that in a bit so I would ignore anything coming from Trump uh about Al coins and also uh just a little bit more context on um news that don't matter is around altcoin ETFs so nowadays it really seems quite easy to file ETFs for your altcoins however you do have to know that these are only filings just because they're allowed to file doesn't mean that they will get approved we have
• 06:30 - 07:00 seen that uh the East ETF took forever to get approved and directly coming from Bloomberg's top uh top analysts uh Eric and James they have stated that uh Litecoin harar salana xrp probably will have ETFs but even they will take a long time and when you consider the fact that the East ETF didn't have inflows until Trump really came into office which was uh 8 months of
• 07:00 - 07:30 nothing uh these really don't have effect so don't read too much into new altcoin ETF filings they're not approved and they won't even have any inflows until we see 10 other much larger altcoins get the full treatment yet which is going to take probably one to two years down the line so don't read into ETF news too much all of these are noise and they are only going to hurt you right now in this market Market condition if you're trading
• 07:30 - 08:00 them so uh lastly on the noise part what doesn't matter is the tariffs the tariffs situations are not benefiting anyone so they are really just negotiating tactics used by Trump uh against China against Canada Mexico uh you got to remember the rule of thumb is that tariffs hurt both sides of the trade they increase cost for both countries so uh the fact that Trump
• 08:00 - 08:30 every time he threatens with tariff but he backs down and delays and then just threatens again is really just a negotiating tactic we're not going to have long-term you know much higher tariffs as a conclusion I highly doubt that so uh these are spooking the market but don't read into to them too much so I wouldn't uh take you know tariff news and use that as a conclusion for why your altcoins are not pumping that's completely not related
• 08:30 - 09:00 so with that out of the way what is really happening then why is the market like this right now uh there has been recession fearce resurfacing uh just recently just in the past week so the I believe the Atlanta fed came out and published The Slowdown in GDP growth uh so the the classic you know um rough estimate the soft number to estimate a recession is 2 quarters of
• 09:00 - 09:30 negative GDP growth uh this however is mainly not that accurate because during the Biden Administration we had negative two qus of GDP growth already but there was no official recession now I have talked about this in a previous uh video um probably in August last year going over why these recession signals are so noisy
• 09:30 - 10:00 the summary there is that although we have been in soft you know recessionary conditions where the economy is very slow jobs are bad Etc and we all know this the official statement is that we haven't started a recession and that's because there is only one Bureau that's a government agency that decides when the recessions are officially in place and that's these guys the National Bureau of economic research and when they uh announce business cycle
• 10:00 - 10:30 datings look at these shadings These are the official recessions that we have had since uh 1979 and the only number that I look at is the unemployment number which is right here unemployment rate and whenever unemployment rate shoots up essentially you have a recession so uh the fact that we again have fears of recession is instilling a lot of fear but you should not trade this new news as well uh we can all agree that we have
• 10:30 - 11:00 been in recessionary conditions but whether or not there will be an officially announced recession it's not dependent on any data in fact we even know that the unemployment data and the jobs numbers have been heavily skewed before last year we have all heard the news so really it's a tool it's a tool when used in the right time gives the politicians and the agencies and the government and out a way of saying oh
• 11:00 - 11:30 something broke in the system and thus we can make a big pivot that's really what the official recessions are used for so it's really if you think about it it's meant to drive fear in the market it's really not meant for helping anybody so that's what I would say about uh the talks of recession don't read into it too much um the rough numbers I can give you is right here so currently we are at
• 11:30 - 12:00 uh 58% chance of a recession that is happening right now in March 20125 of probability done by surveys based on analyst now you see how even though we have these probabilities and the and the probabilities can project into the future all the way to November how do this this even work right so people say oh we have declining GDP growth and so thus we are already in a recession right so it's really you see
• 12:00 - 12:30 it's not black or white it's really this probability is mainly saying what's the chance that the government agencies will declare a recession and declare that retrod dat we are in a recession right now sometime in the future so what that what I mean uh what I mean by that is even worse when the uh National Bureau of economic research when they announce a recession it's always
• 12:30 - 13:00 backdated so when they announce the business cycle dates let's say they announce make an announcement today it wouldn't say that oh starting from March 10th we are start starting a recession no they will say 3 months ago a recession has started that's how that works so that's why even if we are currently in a recession we are not going to get the official like confirmation until much later when the recession is almost nearly finished so that's why you can project these
• 13:00 - 13:30 probabilities of announcements going into the future and one more data point I want to draw your attention to is this decline by the end of the year so why do a not a lot of economic analysts um project that the chance of a recession being declared is much lower by September October November Q4 of this year that's because we are really in this air pocket of liquidity from now until about Q4 of this year once Q4
• 13:30 - 14:00 rolls around there are simply way too many hurdles for uh the US Treasury uh around the bond market for individual banks in the US for their Reserve levels a lot of things are going to come into pressure that the US fed has to have done something by then uh so that gives us only this period of uncertainty until Q4 with where a recession could still be
• 14:00 - 14:30 pushed as a narrative but if it doesn't happen until then highly unlikely for it to happen after so that's um the rough estimates that we have for the recession right now so don't look into it too much it's always going to be retrod dat and there's no point in trying to predict when they are going to announce a recession because again they can announce it whenever they want and it's always going to be going uh back into the past uh as uh for the
• 14:30 - 15:00 dates okay so then is the borun over well my answer for for myself my framework after looking into all of these metrix is that no the Boron is not over I have done videos on this before uh there's a channel on uh there's a video on the channel called the myth of the Bitcoin Cycles so tldr there is that the four year Cycles based on bitcoin
• 15:00 - 15:30 having events they are not accurate there are only three previous data points that truly matter and even those three don't match up at all sometimes it's too short sometimes it's too long so whenever people give you this um Hard dates that the two years after the Bitcoin having event has to be the borun otherwise the Bor run has doesn't happen that's just a flawed framework in my eyes the real D for crypto especially
• 15:30 - 16:00 around altcoins is global liquidity conditions so when we have Bitcoin being in a macro uptrend and you look at Bitcoin right now it is still in uptrend since uh November 2022 this is an uptrend higher highs and higher lows you guys know exactly how to identify an uptrend so when we have Bitcoin being in a macro uptrend and goes up goes up eventually to froy levels and the liquidity conditions
• 16:00 - 16:30 being easy for risk on assets then altcoins at some point have a very large and sudden bull market most of the time it's going to be towards the late time of the Bitcoin Cycles but they always happen so just look at the Bitcoin dominance chart uh what were the last two altcoin cycles right here uh starting from Summer 2017 until January February 2018
• 16:30 - 17:00 when Bitcoin dominance was dropping very aggressively and then again right here in Q4 2020 until mid 2021 so around both of these times right here and right here was when Bitcoin was breaking new all-time highs and at least two to 3x above previous all-time high and at the same time Global liquidity conditions were good so there are plenty of ways you can track
• 17:00 - 17:30 Global liquidity the simplest one is by looking at the federal uh the US Federal Reserve balance sheet wcl let me see if I can get this on the chart here no uh simplest way you can track this is using Federal Reserve balance sheet right here and you see the pivot
• 17:30 - 18:00 right here marked the bottom of the bare market and then right here liquidity conditions were basically normal at least it wasn't going against us so the fact that previous two times Bitcoin uptrend liquidity conditions are good and altcoins eventually had that pump why do we assume that just because two years
• 18:00 - 18:30 have passed has it been two years I number skips my mind but we are not even at that late stage past the Bitcoin having event yet so I don't understand why people are giving up on altcoins right now the only reason I can think of is because the sentiment is so bad because people really expected too much and too early too quickly from their allcoin bags this cycle in the meantime they just kind of ignored that Bitcoin has been slowly going up so when you
• 18:30 - 19:00 look at Bitcoin really what's there to worry about sure it could drop but is this like catastrophic no of course not this is this is fine this looks very much just like bull market correction to me so what really matters here then because we know that Bitcoin is still in an uptrend and we know that altcoins haven't pumped what's the third condition here and that's Global
• 19:00 - 19:30 liquidity so when can we actually get the global liquidity events to trigger and why is global liquidity so tight right now to the fact that it's squeezing altcoins dry just look at like for example on on ethereum I mean this is this is just sad right $1,800 for ethereum um I don't even know what salana is salana is at um $120 50% off from January levels what's
• 19:30 - 20:00 really happening here so a lot of people will say uh will reference this number the global M2 growth the money supply uh right out the gate I'll tell you this is not the number you want to look at this is not the real liquidity number it's nice to look at this because uh M2 always goes up and you can always make the case to say that um longterm M2 goes
• 20:00 - 20:30 up Bitcoin goes up now the only reason that is true is because M2 always goes up because the money printer is always long-term ongoing there's always more and more inflation and Bitcoin over long enough Horizon is always anti-inflationary so it's good for very very long term let's say you project 10 years down the line but for 1 to two years it's not accurate the real global liquidity numbers uh the best indicators I find
• 20:30 - 21:00 are two places so the free one you can use is something called uh usfed net liquidity uh you can just Google this there's a website I use called Guru Focus I only use this one indicator by the way on here but this is quite accurate and uh you can also find the same indicator on trading view so uh just plug in your Bitcoin chart and then you can go into your indicators type in
• 21:00 - 21:30 US net liquidity and this is this one right here so this is a much more accurate representation of the current state of the liquidity coming from us and um if you want to go a step further and look at the global liquidity as a whole and really understand the whole dynamic then I recommend you guys
• 21:30 - 22:00 to follow the uh research done by Michael Howell at Capital Wars he is really the Forefront expert in this field and weekly he puts out these Global liquidity reports that you can read and he also is a big big um Bitcoin and crypto uh macro analyst he really does not fear about talking about um the correlation between Bitcoin and liquidity Etc and he has given very clearly the uh
• 22:00 - 22:30 first of all the correlations between uh Bitcoin and Global liquidity so Bitcoin as a matter of fact is the most reactive asset to Global liquidity conditions and uh even more the only more higher uh the only higher reactionary assets are altcoins so this is why altcoins are even just just you know higher leverage Bitcoin uh when it
• 22:30 - 23:00 comes to Global liquidity and uh he also was the first to point out that the four to five year Cycles roughly are really not driven by Bitcoin having events but instead by global liquidity Cycles so I've been studying his material a lot and a few takeaways I can give you here number one Global liquidity is still Rising albeit it's seeing a air pocket like we we have described
• 23:00 - 23:30 from now until Q4 but we haven't seen the peak yet and the peak is likely to come sometime in Q4 this year maybe early 2026 based on the last uh 50 years of data so this is the first uh first major point for uh why the crypto cycle is not over yet and second is that in the short term
• 23:30 - 24:00 this you know midcycle blood bath we're seeing how can it be explained it can be perfectly explained by the current Squeeze In global liquidity if you understand how different um factors compiled together to form this liquidity condition so there are really four main drivers of global liquidity number one the F US Federal Reserve liquidity so the the US fed liquidity number right
• 24:00 - 24:30 here this one is basically the same this driver here number two China China's liquidity whether China is easing driving stimulus or their tightening number three the strength of the dollar you can follow this with the Dixie index and number four the use of collateral mainly the bond market so how volatile is the bond market so out of these four
• 24:30 - 25:00 conditions currently the bond market is okay it's in regular conditions and the US dollar you can follow this directly on trading view just go on trading view type in the ticker dxy and you'll see the US dollar is currently actually falling in the past week and you can say this is very you know uptrending like this anymore it's at least consolidating sideways which is actually very good for risk on assets a
• 25:00 - 25:30 weaker dollar leads to higher liquidity just uh take that rule of thumb and remember that we need dollar to drop in order for asset prices to rise generally speaking so the Dixie is okay uh the other Factor China China is actively easing as we speak so China continues to ramp up stimulus to guard their economy because
• 25:30 - 26:00 the Chinese economy is actually way worse than what we have in the uh in the west right now I have been in China in the uh yet last year it's honestly quite bad and they are really uh showing very openness to even like capitalist changes uh as we speak so China is just waiting to ease waiting to turn on the money printer more aggressively but they cannot do so at the full scale until we have the US
• 26:00 - 26:30 dollar dropping significantly and the FED um coming out and introducing easing conditions as well so that leaves us with only one factor that really is limiting all risk on assets not only for Bitcoin not only for altcoins but also for example for the NASDAQ so when you look at the NASDAQ uh the the S&P the overall stock market any of the major indices are just really terrible right now uh these kind
• 26:30 - 27:00 of drops on the S&P is I mean this is this is pretty messed up so if your Alin backs are dropping it's not because oh like Alin Market is over because the 2-year timeline has run up after Bitcoin having like that's just foolish to think that way it's really because everything else is dropping because liquidity conditions are tight and what is tightening the liquidity condition right now is is be is coming from the federal reserve's liquidity
• 27:00 - 27:30 choices so this is why I have followed the fomc meetings so closely for the past year I have I was one of the first to really point out that um the fomc hinted um in May of 2024 that they were slowing down the runoff of their balance sheet so they were slowing quantitative tightening and they were potentially going to start quantitative easing and I did the homework and analyze that usually three
• 27:30 - 28:00 to eight months after they make the first warning is when they make the full pivot so that leaves us 8 months after May of last year which gives us about January of this year that's why I was very optimistic for a pivot to come in the January FMC meeting but it didn't come in fact we got something way tighter and way more aggressive of a
• 28:00 - 28:30 stance coming from drone pow so in one of the testimonies in February so last month drum po uh the Fed chair has said that QE is a tool we will only use when rates are already at zero the FED remains a long ways away from ending QT this was way too aggressive I really this really um showed me another side of the fed and the fomc which tells
• 28:30 - 29:00 me they're really not trying to do the best of their job to support the economy or support asset prices anymore um instead it's really turning way more political at this point um as we speak why is the Fed not able to just start the money printer again I summize there are a few reasons so number one of course uh inflation is not at the fed's target of % yet it
• 29:00 - 29:30 stopped I I believe like uh 2.5% is and it started to take back up again now it's not like we aren't feeling the inflation ourselves we all are we know that as um spending prices are going up living standards are not going up and it's okay like people don't really believe even that inflation is going to slow down anymore they we all know that it's going going to be an
• 29:30 - 30:00 inevitability but really the political part of this is that the FED needs a way and needs an excuse to say that wow look the economy truly broke down so we have to adjust our inflation Target so it's not that we didn't do our job but instead this thing broke and it's not up to us but now we have to settle with this we tried our best but in reality they uh what they are sacrificing here
• 30:00 - 30:30 is really the short-term volatility of the markets and that's what's happening uh so what needs to happen for the FED to start easing again and when can this happen so there are fortunately some good signs coming up so number one on the FC's website during their uh latest meeting uh uh they had their meeting minutes on January 28th and 29th and
• 30:30 - 31:00 they have made just one liner here in their expectations of the Federal Reserve balance sheet policy this is uh the qqt Bal uh balance sheet policy survey respondents these are the people that work at the Federal Reserve on average saw the process of runoff concluding by mid 2025 slightly later than they had previously expected so again they they even recognize that it's
• 31:00 - 31:30 going to be slightly later than they previously expected which to me was I mean uh most people expected it should have happened by now but they are giving the date to be mid 2025 to conclude a runoff of their balance sheet which just means stop selling assets uh that are on the balance sheet so stopping QT but there's also a big difference here you can stop QT and just let your balance sheet remain normal and remain
• 31:30 - 32:00 at the same condition and there's the other pivot which is to start increasing the balance sheet which is um turning on the money printer and uh introducing QE again so they even don't have any plan any hints on when they will reintroduce QE but at least we know that by mid 2025 mid middle of this year June July August month we could see QT
• 32:00 - 32:30 ending and at least that's a good sign so that's going to be a big relief that adds to the first and the main constraint that we have right now in global liquidity which is Federal Reserve liquidity so that's the first uh timer that first hint that the FED has given us now there are quite a few other uh upcoming deadlines that will force the to act by the second half of this year
• 32:30 - 33:00 so uh number one is that the FED is running out of other forms of liquidity to support Bank Reserves to support the bond market as a whole so when you Google fed net liquidity there are three components that make up this number so we have the Federal Reserve balance sheet that
• 33:00 - 33:30 directly uh means uh when the FED has a policy to increase or decrease their balance sheet Holdings of assets and then you have the treasury general account so this is the checking account of the US uh treasury not the Federal Reserve but the US government and this number currently is not that high anymore so you can track this in real time on uh St Louis fed website and this checking
• 33:30 - 34:00 account of the US government currently sits at $550 billion which is not big compared to some of the other numbers that are coming up in terms of their liabilities and lastly you have the reverse repo facility which is part of the Federal Reserve and this facility has been nearly completely drained now so by uh April 2023 there were $2.2
• 34:00 - 34:30 trillion available of liquidity in here to be um taken by Banks uh in exchange for their collateral so these are basically cash readily uh ready to be lent out to Banks however now this has been completely drained so when you consider that this facility is completely drained and the treasure general account isn't really that big
• 34:30 - 35:00 anymore so these are the assets that are left over to support uh banking reserves and the overall Financial system and what are the liabilities coming up the the major ones so first of all we have the US debt ceiling is counting down as we speak so the US government needs to draw against TGA to manage this
• 35:00 - 35:30 weird situation that eventually will lead to the increase of the de ceiling again but there's going to be Shenanigans they need immediate cash to on hand to facilitate this number two the US has a large debt maturity wall that's coming up this year so nearly $3 trillion of the US debt is expected to hit maturity in 2025 what does that mean that means the US debt would whenever the US government issues that it comes in the forms of US
• 35:30 - 36:00 Treasury bonds us treasury bills coupons Etc these are basically uh the US government loaning money to uh borrowing money from consumers from Banks from institutions in exchange to give giving them a Government Bond to be paid back later with interest now a lot of this is expiring this year especially large uh is this maturity wall of nearly three trillion dollar because over the
• 36:00 - 36:30 past uh two years the previous US uh treasury Secretary of Treasury Jan Yellen has been issuing a lot more treasury bills versus treasury bonds so short-term uh treasury instead of long-term treasury the ones that expire uh at one year or less in duration so when they do this the US government is
• 36:30 - 37:00 effectively able to inject the liquidity without having the US fed even having to step in so they have been doing this stealth QE since 2022 and uh Michael how from Capital Wars have also noted this before so not qqe and not yield curve control yield curve curve control has been underway since uh
• 37:00 - 37:30 effectively 2023 and this peaked at around early 2024 and has been decreasing so this basically to summarize is that Jenna Yellen the previous US Secretary of Treasury has been uh kicking the can down the road by issuing short-term debt and using that liquidity to support the government and that it that debt because it's all under one year immaturity is quickly running up so that debt needs to be paid back
• 37:30 - 38:00 and the current US uh treasur uh Secretary of Treasury Scott bessent needs to refinance this debt nearly $3 trillion just for 2025 but there's going to be a lot more in 2026 all of these short-term debt needs to be refinanced using long-term treasury bonds and in order to do that there's a big problem because well nobody really wants to buy bonds right now so what's going to
• 38:00 - 38:30 happen who is going to buy these uh they could use the current liquidity that they have but as we have seen with um you know the TGA account and the reverse repo purchase facility like nothing's really there anymore it's not nearly enough to support all of this the last buyer of Resort is the US Federal Reserve serve with their balance sheet so that's why by Q4 of
• 38:30 - 39:00 this year when all of this debt is maturing and needs to be refinanced more liquidity will be needed uh that's another impending clock that's pushing the FED uh more ever more tight and they will need to act they cannot keep doing QT forever so all of these signs point together uh and last but not least uh there is even an
• 39:00 - 39:30 impending shortage of reserves coming [Music] from uh the regional Banks so as Michael how from Capital Wars have uh done the research on this again so us Regional banks are also getting significantly pressured with their Reserve levels and if nothing is to be done because these guys don't have the reverse repo facility to draw against uh
• 39:30 - 40:00 to borrow against anymore from the FED If the Fed doesn't turn on the money printer by sometime in Q3 of this year he even uh estimates around mid to July of this year if the FED continues to sit on its hand the US Bank Reserves will meaningfully dip below the danger threshold which could lead us to another potential crisis situation like what we have seen in the svb First Republic
• 40:00 - 40:30 Banks back in 23 so all of these point to uh first signs of something to break around the summer month June July months where the FED might be forced to do something and then by let's say late Q3 early Q4 they have to do something if they don't do anything by then it's really bad it's a lot of things are going to fall
• 40:30 - 41:00 apart so uh this is roughly the timeline If the Fed continues to be political about this and they don't want to work with Trump and they just want to save face and not turn on a money printer and just keep going at this then even then we are not going to get this same tight liquidity condition uh much later on until Q4 by the time Q4
• 41:00 - 41:30 comes around things has to change so that's why earlier when we were looking at the recession probabilities most economic analysts are predicting that if we are going to have a recession official announcement it's got to happen before Q4 before September by the time October rolls around and November rolls around the more time passes the less likely we will have a recession by then
• 41:30 - 42:00 because the FED has to have done something already okay so that's the timing and that's what the FED is currently looking at um but you got to you got to know this ultimately we know that inflation is an inevitability okay we all feel it we know that inflation is got to be way higher than 2% um we know that the fed and the government is trying to get this
• 42:00 - 42:30 inflation to this like somehow magical number of 2% for the sake of us even though we're all suffering and it's more political than anything which means if they don't achieve that 2% goal then they cannot easily lower interest rates and easily turn on the money printer which means they have to cause a fuss cause something to break break in order to change their previous goal raising the
• 42:30 - 43:00 target of 2% inflation to maybe 2.5 or 3% or something and then doing this uh the same thing again lowering interest rates turning on the money printer so before that happens before all this political finishes sometime in Q3 Q4 we have to sustain this period we have to survive there is most likely going to be more chop there there's absolutely no need to be
• 43:00 - 43:30 too impatient and just really trying to buy up all the Assets in the world right now because you'll have plenty of time uh when this all blows over however long term because inflation is an inevitability because money Printing and the lowering of interest rates is still an inevitability just delayed the Bull Run is not over Bitcoin back to our initial
• 43:30 - 44:00 discussion still in an uptrend we are at 78,000 sure that is a lot lower than 100K that we had in January but last September we were at 61k and is Bitcoin in an uptrend yes it is higher highs higher lows very simple right you can draw your thing where however you like and even if Bitcoin you know just continues to chop
• 44:00 - 44:30 in this range what's the worst case scenario for us well just use your very basic EMA or SMA indicators right you have the long-term indicators versus the short-term indicators long-term indicator 200 day EMA is at 82,000 83,000 right now Bitcoin is slightly below that already historically speaking as long as Bitcoin is in a macro uptrend when you buy at these 200 day EMAs you
• 44:30 - 45:00 are at a very good position look at look back right here at these dips sure it can Wick below and get a lot lower even but look at this it's just a wick here again and usually when you get bounces when you revisit slightly below the 200 day EMA the subsequent bounce you have is going to get at least towards the short-term EMAs again the
• 45:00 - 45:30 100 day ma the 50-day ma 20 20-day Ma and these moving averages need to converge they need to squeeze together before the markets rally again so I think we could get even short-term reliefs now that we are already below the 200 AMA most people are truly capitulating right now but look at the 100 day ma 89,000 I really wouldn't be surprised if we start to get some
• 45:30 - 46:00 reliefs so what's my action point then knowing this kind of typical pattern knowing that Bitcoin is still in an uptrend and we are at the 200 day ma and we could potentially see bounces at least in the relief in the short term so my plan is this I haven't sold any of my uh portfolio Holdings you can still see my current uh track it's quite bad our portfolio Peak that over 200k currently it's at 83k so I'm down just about
• 46:00 - 46:30 60% I would like to offer you this perspective so if your portfolio is in a similar State as mine you can think of it like this by December to January is when our portfolio was at all-time high look at salana salana was at 230 240 $250 currently it's at
• 46:30 - 47:00 $120 is it 60% down no it's around maybe 50% down but it's not by a long shot so consider maybe you went all in on salana in November December January and then you're now down 50% what's then your uh action going to be do you feel as bad if the case if if the answer is no then I don't think you need to beat yourself up too much that's the whole point of having a portfolio sure a lot
• 47:00 - 47:30 of the other altcoins that I have on this list are down but I'm very lucky because I always keep high percentage in Bitcoin ethereum and salana and that has really saved me here and at current point in order to keep my sanity I'm just telling myself hey I have roughly timed the market wrong and just consider myself you know having aped salana above $200 and it's down 50% that's about
• 47:30 - 48:00 it uh what's my action point then if we simplify the framework like that well knowing that we're going to have at least another few months of chop and also knowing that the bull market is not over and knowing that Bitcoin is at a really good value range and is in an uptrend my action point then is this I'm going to wait if if we get any relief rally let's say we get back to the 100 day EMA or 100 day SMA
• 48:00 - 48:30 whether that's you know bit of chop when the 100 day and 200 day ma me meet together at these points maybe it's time to uh make the same action but if we get any relief rallies I'm going going to look to sell my low caps and midcaps and look to buy up more Bitcoin and still keep some exposure in the top
• 48:30 - 49:00 narratives but only keeping one maybe two alquin in each category that I truly believe in that I have held and studied for multiple years for the alquin that I have always held and I know we'll make a comeback so I'll make up updates on that when I actually make these actions but I think you will have time to do that as Bitcoin is falling off a cliff like this if you're capitulating right on this spot it's it's kind of foolish so we
• 49:00 - 49:30 will get relief rallies I think you should take advantage of that and um be prepared for another three potentially six months of chop after that point most people would have capitulated if we get that long of a chop truly this is going to be one of the most difficult times in crypto in all my years in crypto this is um both the timing of it how many people are bought into this
• 49:30 - 50:00 fouryear Cycle Theory and just how much noise there is it's really hard to survive this period so if you agree with my analysis here if you agree that liquidity is the the condition that drives altcoins not the fouryear having Cycles then you have to see the bigger picture which is that liquidity conditions has not started yet it has not eased the Federal Reserve is
• 50:00 - 50:30 actively shrinking its balance sheet okay and the reverse repo facility is drained fully so there's no more liquidity to draw against there the checking account of the US government is nearly finished and all in the meantime a huge debt ceiling is coming up uh that rollover is coming up and uh bank reserve problems are coming up so liquidity needs to be injected by the end of this
• 50:30 - 51:00 year latest latest by the end of this year should we should start to see some signs of um easing start to come by the summer months as hinted by the FED when that comes when you see that news uh being released from the FMC statements don't be one of those guys that says oh the bull market is over because we're now two years past the having event or whatever make that pivot get back in the altcoins when they are near bare Market lows
• 51:00 - 51:30 again a lot of altcoins are near bare Market lows again so conserve your Capital but keep the same belief and if you're with me if you agree with the same analysis the Bull Run is not over the Bull Run hasn't even started for for altcoins so conserve your Capital whether that's keeping some in cash or in my case I really like to keep in Bitcoin at the moment and just wait wait this out wait till the liquidity
• 51:30 - 52:00 conditions improve from the US fed and I'll keep you guys updated but at the same time don't chase these short-term narratives there's nothing to do right now from now until at least June July don't play any narratives no matter what happens what kind of hot launches happen don't do it conserve your Capital wait for the conditions to ease up wait for the easy Market to come and it will come and then shoot your
• 52:00 - 52:30 shots then so that's kind of what I'm currently thinking uh I'm really down bad to be honest with you and my personal portfolio everything else you know mentally just trying to hang in there so uh yeah i' I've really just spent multiple months trying to study all the material that I could find and these are my summary I think it will come I don't think the bull market is over I think we
• 52:30 - 53:00 will have the B bull market it's just much delayed think in terms of a 2017 cycle condition where Bitcoin was slowly grinding up where altcoins were just not doing anything until the very end of 2017 where if you need a easy mental framework 2017 is very like this year 2025 so by the end of the year we should start to see things really ease up and uh conveniently 2017 was also the um
• 53:00 - 53:30 post elction year as well Trump 1.0 so maybe that has some um you know easy mental correlation that you can draw upon as well do whatever you need to survive and keep your belief in the Boran alive okay uh that's it so I don't have um real actions that I can give you right now that can save your coins from being in large draw
• 53:30 - 54:00 Downs it is what it is but just know that everyone's coins are largely draw down so no matter who you ask it's going to be similar numbers so don't worry about it too much hang in there we'll be okay don't do too much as well and okay um I will be making follow-up videos on where I see Bitcoin going so um I think really this cycle in this midcycle correction is really sep separating the Bitcoin Market versus the altcoin market so look out for a Bitcoin video coming
• 54:00 - 54:30 up uh and when I actually make my uh portfolio update actions I will make a dedicated portfolio update themed video so look out for that uh but other than that I don't know how often I'll be making videos until it's really much more feasible to be making videos I don't want to force any narratives I don't really even want to look at what
• 54:30 - 55:00 people are talking about trending because I know none of that matters until liquidity improves so bear with me if you really need to reach me if you want to follow my day-to-day um I do still tweet a lot so you can follow me on Twitter at uh virtual bacon ZX day-to-day stuff if you have questions I'm still here or you can join our community the coiners uh we chat in there but don't watch watch too many videos and don't overthink altcoins until liquidity conditions
• 55:00 - 55:30 improve okay that's it that's all I have for you guys and uh thank you for watching subscribe to the channel share with a friend hang in there we'll be okay and I will talk to you see you in the next video and next live stream