The future of AI, work, and human potential | Lars Thomsen | TEDxHWZ

Summary

Highlights

• Thomsen compares the current state of AI to a 'popcorn moment' in human progress. 🍿
• The talk emphasizes the potential of AI to transform routine work, freeing up time for creative pursuits. 🚀
• Lars Thomsen advocates renaming AI as 'ambient intelligence' to highlight its social and supportive roles. 👥
• Thomsen's future vision includes AI acting as a personal mentor and learning aide. 🧙‍♂️
• The talk encourages embracing AI as a tool for positive societal change. 🌍

Key Takeaways

• AI is likened to a 'popcorn moment,' signaling a significant shift in human development. 🍿
• Ambient and augmented intelligence are reframing AI as a supportive tool, rather than a threat. 🌟
• AI promises to relieve us of monotonous tasks, enhancing personal creativity and growth. 🌱
• Thomsen's vision of AI is as a mentor and aide, helping us to reach our full potential. 🎓
• This talk encourages a shift in how we view and engage with AI for a brighter future. 🌈

Overview

Chapters

• 00:00 - 00:30: Introduction to Popcorn Moment This chapter introduces the concept of a 'popcorn moment' in human development, which refers to the significant point where humans have the capacity to foresee the future. It emphasizes the innate human curiosity to explore the unseen and the eagerness to learn.
• 00:30 - 01:00: Predictive Thinking with Popcorn In this chapter, the focus is on exploring the concept of predictive thinking through an everyday experience of making popcorn. The author sets a scene where individuals are in a kitchen, using traditional methods to make popcorn on a stove with a pan and cooking oil, rather than a microwave. This scenario is used as a metaphor or a relatable example to delve into the broader theme of how predictive thinking can be applied in various situations.
• 01:00 - 01:30: Understanding the Tipping Point The chapter discusses the concept of predicting when a system reaches a 'tipping point,' illustrated by the metaphor of predicting when popcorn will begin to pop. It explores different methods and approaches to forecasting events, highlighting how some predictions might be premature or based on irrelevant indicators, like mistaking steam from a drop of water for the start of popcorn popping. The narrative suggests a need to differentiate between actual signs of change and false starts.
• 01:30 - 02:00: Human Development and Learning The chapter discusses the concept of linear prediction and contrasts it with the approach of staying curious and employing just-in-time learning. It uses the analogy of waiting for popcorn to pop to illustrate how some people doubt future possibilities based on recent non-events. In contrast, it advocates for using one's current abilities to adapt and learn continuously.
• 02:00 - 02:30: The Concept of End of Stupidity In this chapter titled "The Concept of End of Stupidity," it discusses the idea that modern technology, particularly smartphones and the internet, have revolutionized access to information. It highlights the ease with which one can obtain specific knowledge, like the precise temperature at which popcorn pops, without the need for formal education. This accessibility to instant information suggests a shift towards reducing ignorance, as people can become informed quickly and effortlessly by leveraging technology.
• 02:30 - 03:00: AI as a Tool for Better Living This chapter discusses using a meat thermometer as an analogy to describe AI's predictive capabilities. By sticking the thermometer into the oil, one can see the rising temperature trend, similar to how AI analyzes data trends to make predictions. Within this context, the chapter provides a relatable example using the popping of popcorn to illustrate that as the heat (data) is absorbed, an event (prediction outcome) occurs. The emphasis is on AI's ability to utilize information to anticipate future events effectively, akin to predicting the precise moment popcorn will pop.
• 03:00 - 03:30: Work Routine and AI Efficiency The chapter explores the concept of work routine and AI efficiency by delving into an analogy of popcorn popping. It explains how the kernel acts as the seed surrounded by a small amount of water and corn oil. When heated to 100° Celsius, the water turns into steam, creating pressure that leads the kernel to explode and diffuse into the surrounding corn starch, causing it to expand. This analogy reflects how, once a process begins, it doesn't take long for the system to continue efficiently, much like kernels popping continuously.
• 03:30 - 04:00: Rethinking AI as Ambient Intelligence The chapter discusses the concept of exponential growth, using the metaphor of popcorn kernels popping as an illustration of reaching a tipping point. This serves as a parallel to the current state of human development and learning, where we are on the cusp of a new era in understanding our capabilities and the way we work. The focus is on recognizing this moment as a critical juncture, potentially transforming our approach to technology and intelligence.
• 04:00 - 04:30: AI as a Social Extension The chapter discusses the pivotal moment society currently faces, often referred to as a tipping point, where machines have begun to take on roles traditionally reserved for humans, particularly in the realm of learning. The narrative emphasizes the milestone reached about 100 weeks ago when machines first achieved a level of learning previously exclusive to humans. The chapter underlines the fundamental role of learning in human advancement and situates this technological leap as a significant historical moment.
• 04:30 - 05:00: Augmented Intelligence and Lifelong Learning The chapter delves into the concept of lifelong learning, emphasizing that human life is characterized by an ongoing process of pattern recognition and learning. From birth until death, humans continuously acquire knowledge and skills, starting with basic abilities like walking and talking, and advancing to professional skills. This chapter highlights the importance of learning to use language, developing professional capabilities, employing tools for creativity, and transforming ideas into tangible creations. It underscores the notion that learning is an essential, lifelong process.
• 05:00 - 05:30: The Era of AI Tools The chapter titled 'The Era of AI Tools' discusses a significant shift in technology often referred to as 'The End of Stupidity.' This term does not imply a decrease in human error or foolishness, but rather highlights a pivotal moment in computer evolution. Previously, computers operated within strict programming logic, following predefined instructions like 'if-then-else' conditions without understanding or learning from the information they processed. Now, we are entering an era where computers are beginning to comprehend concepts and learn from data inputs, marking a new chapter in technological advancement.
• 05:30 - 06:00: Conclusion: A Call to Embrace AI The chapter 'Conclusion: A Call to Embrace AI' discusses the role of computers in our work and how humans might perceive sophistication in tasks that we do. It highlights the repetitive nature of actions, such as typing on keyboards to fill spreadsheets or write emails, and suggests that while computers execute these tasks repeatedly, they lack the human quality of understanding and initiative. However, there's a call for recognizing the potential help that AI could offer in augmenting human capabilities, especially in thinking and problem-solving. AI could bridge the gap by assisting with understanding needs and providing support in more creative and thoughtful processes.

The future of AI, work, and human potential | Lars Thomsen | TEDxHWZ Transcription

• 00:00 - 00:30 [Applause] [Music] I think we are at a popcorn moment in human development now what is a popcorn moment it's basically the ability of humans to predict the future and that we are curious when it comes to discovering the things that our eyes cannot see that we want to learn and
• 00:30 - 01:00 that we want to discover the setting is easy you go into your kitchen with some friends and you're making popcorn the old-fashioned way not in the microwave bag but you take a pan a little bit of cooking oil and a handful of popcorn kernels put it into the oil and you switch on the hot plate and then the little red dot goes on on your cooking plate that shows that the pot or the the the the heat is going
• 01:00 - 01:30 up and you ask your friends how long in the future how long will it take until we have popcorn and you'll see different ways of predicting the future one or two will probably be ahead of their time and you know probably there's a little bit drop of water between the pan and the the hot plate and it makes its noise D and they say oh it's already starting but it was just a drop of water that is was going turning into wher and lifting up the pot a little bit and then bringing it back down down on the hot
• 01:30 - 02:00 plate no popcorn wrong prediction a minute goes by 2 minute go by nothing happens and then there are those who doubt the things that can happen in the future and they say well we've waited 2 minutes now I think it's not going to happen so they make a linear predic prediction nothing happened in the last 2 minutes nothing will happen in the next two minutes but those of us who stay curious and use the abilities that we have right now to have just in time learning to have the ability to feed our
• 02:00 - 02:30 curiosity with the information and knowledge that we didn't have to learn in school but we can get it right now and you pull out your smartphone and you Google popcorn and what you get is basically all the information you need to make it good prediction because at the Wikipedia page of of popcorn it says popcorn pops in hot oil at about 180° Celsius 160 360° fahren and if you pull up the draw beneath the hot plate and
• 02:30 - 03:00 you find the meat thermometer you can stick it into the oil and see where we are in the trend that enables the popcorn and you see we at 150° 151 152 153 so goes up at about 1° a second now you can make with this information a very good prediction and say in about 30 seconds we'll see it coming and then the first popcorn pops it pops because the heat from the oil goes into the kernel and in the middle
• 03:00 - 03:30 of the kernel is the seed which is surrounded by a little water and a little B corn oil and the water starts at 100° to turn from liquid into gas or into steam and the pressure gets so high that it basically explodes at one point in time and it diffuses into the corn statch that is surrounded and blows it up but does it take another one or two minutes for the next kernel to pop no once it starts it makes pop
• 03:30 - 04:00 Po and within a few seconds all the popcorn curs pop like a firework and that's an exponential growth curve that is totally different than just the warming up the oil it's a Tipping Point as we call it and we are right now as human beings as we are here in this room and out there we are at this Tipping Point of a new era of how we understand our human development our growth our ability to learn the way that we work in the future and as we function as a
• 04:00 - 04:30 society now the Tipping Point that we are facing right now is basically that we have reached a point that was just about a 100 weeks ago when we had the first machine that did something what used to be the domain of humans to learn and if you think about it the reason why we are here today is our ability to learn from the first first
• 04:30 - 05:00 day when we were born until the day we are we die we basically do pattern recognition and we learn we don't know much when we go when we come onto this Earth we have to learn how to work walk we have to learn how to listen and to talk and to express our feelings and to use language wisely we have to learn the skills that we need to do our work and to become a professional and to be able to use tools to build something great to be creative to not to have an idea and then turn it into something that other
• 05:00 - 05:30 people can enjoy and the thing is we also call This Moment In Time the end of stupidity and the funny thing is when I say that many people think about the stupidity of humans which I'm not going to talk about that will still be there but the Tipping Point basically is that computers in the past were able to calculate something they had a programming logic with they you know with if then else but there were not a able to understand and learn what we're
• 05:30 - 06:00 doing and we think we are so sophisticated in that what we do we sit in front of a computer and we use our fingers and type in something on the keyboard some numbers to fill an Excel sheet or some letters to fill our email response but the computer although we probably have done it hundreds and hundreds of times didn't had this thing that humans would have and say well now I know what you're doing and I think I can I think I can help you with that I can help you with thinking and finding
• 06:00 - 06:30 the right information finding the right right words and that basically is the bit big Tipping Point of our time back when when we look into the history books when there are still books in a 100 years from now we will Define the beginning of the 2020s as this topping point now why is this so important because when we are talking about AI most of our talk is about angst and fear and our um well we are really afraid of what AI could do to us but this is the
• 06:30 - 07:00 wrong question we have to make a mind shift and think the other way what can I can AI do for us so that we have a better life and reach a new level of consciousness of the ability to learn about the way to express ourselves to find what our real meaning is in life and if you think about it that way there's so much promise that it can bring I don't know if you're really
• 07:00 - 07:30 happy in the things that you do at work um I think it's become more complicated we got more information than ever before we have more communication than ever before on different platforms and different devices and 24/7 news we have to filter between fake news and real news and we have to keep up with all the Innovation pace and it really fries our brain many people are discouraged right now in their work and say it's too much
• 07:30 - 08:00 I cannot keep up it's too complicated but the thing is we cannot stop the human development and go back to a time where we used to be the past is gone the present right now is in flux nobody really knows where it's going and the future is still out of focus but we have to really think about what AI could do for us and I often think how much of my potential can I
• 08:00 - 08:30 really use in doing my daily routines and work and the thing is on Sunday afternoon I usually do my to-do list for the week what I want to accomplish from Monday through Friday and most most of the time it's a long list because on the Sunday afternoon you have the creativity and you write down everything you want to do and then the week goes by and on Friday afternoon you still look at it and say oh no I haven't done half the thing many of these things are routines things that my computer or an eye that
• 08:30 - 09:00 is near me could see and understand and say hey L you've done that the third or fourth time and I've seen you do it I think I can do it as well and it would take away the routines and the boring stuff and just imagine a time and I would say it's in about 200 weeks from now that's about 4 years every one of us will have so much in artificial intelligence around us that it will do the routines and the things with that we are not good at that we don't like or
• 09:00 - 09:30 that just consume so much time will do for us and imagine you have this weekly to-do list on an make it on Sunday you go Monday to work on on Monday afternoon at 4:00 p.m. you are done with your week's work it's all done somebody helped you with that and now you have Tuesday Wednesday Thursday and Friday to do what you really want to do and there's one list that is that I still have it's my to-do when time list
• 09:30 - 10:00 that's my bucket list that I want to do if I have done all the things that I had to do and I would really get to to get a get better person to learn something to be better so let's make one let's let's go through one idea I think that we are probably calling AI by the wrong name we calling it artificial information uh intelligence and artificial is something cold and very mechanical it's not real it's not natural and you know it really
• 10:00 - 10:30 scares us but let's get to put some other points to the word or to the letter a and one is I would just suggest to think about ambient intelligence AI is not artificial intelligence it's ambient intelligence now what I what do I mean with that we are social beings we surround ourselves with people friends other tutors mentors people who Inspire us
• 10:30 - 11:00 people who actually do something bring something forward that honor us that see the worth that we have and the abilities to to to be you know different parts of a group and once we find this group we grow we grow through the things that we do together and when you have the right friends your life is so much better it's so much more inspiring it's so much more rewarding now think of an AI as an
• 11:00 - 11:30 ambient intelligence that has the ability to go with you through life and teach you the things that you don't know to inspire you with things that you should do to enable you to do the things that you always wanted to do and think is of of a ex extension of your Social being that you are enabled to do things so all of a sudden AI doesn't come as a threat but as a tool that is very
• 11:30 - 12:00 useful and the other thing is we can also call it augmented intelligence augment augmented intelligence in the way that I'm pretty aware that my intelligence in my brain is pretty limited there's many times that I sit in front of something and I said I don't get it it's too complicated I it's too hard to learn and if you had an intelligence that said no it's not that complicated I know the best way to tell you about it and how we we can go
• 12:00 - 12:30 about it and and you have a teacher and a tutor that really knows how you learn you can learn so much faster and so much better and you can probably even close the gap between the experience that you have to make through life and we all may make mistakes and experiences and often times it takes a long time for us to really understand what really happened and probably you know that too these aha moments where month or even years later you say oh now I get it what I did wrong
• 12:30 - 13:00 back then oh my God I wish I had known that a little earlier a little bit sooner if we close that Gap we will have a better life the shocking thing is if we are lucky we have 4,000 weeks to live after 4,000 weeks you're about 77 years old and doing that time all you do is learn actually experience the world trying to get the person that you want to be
• 13:00 - 13:30 to understand how social beings interact with each other to find your place in this world and just think you have an augmented intelligence that helps you reach this goal a little faster not on week 3,999 but in the middle of life if you would known what you know now 20 years ago think about how much better your life was and the thing is we are entering this new era right now ai is not something that that goes against us it
• 13:30 - 14:00 is a tool just like so many tools that we have created to make our lives better the plow printing press electricity um the internet and we had to figure out how to use these tools but tools just as a someone can has the skill to use a tool very good you can do magic with it you can build something you can create something you can build something that you are proud of and other people are proud of too to make a mark in your life
• 14:00 - 14:30 and we now are at The Verge into this new era so I asked myself the future is not something that we are just waiting on it's something that we are creating for ourselves but also for our families for the companies that we work for for our societies and when it comes to AI it's probably the strongest tool that humankind has ever invented and we wouldn't be here today
• 14:30 - 15:00 if we hadn't learned how to work with the tools that we invented we wouldn't have been able to build this place to have light here to have the internet to um transport this information and AI is basically the start of a new era how we work and in the best case we will let go of the things that stress us out that hinder us from being the persons we can be or should be or want to be the ability to learn even not even in
• 15:00 - 15:30 school or in in University but throughout life and keep out the stress even if we want to change our job at the age of 50 we will have a mentor and a tutor that will guide us and help us and to learn and to discover and to have fun so I suggest when we talk about AI let's not talk about artificial intelligence because it misleads us let's talk about ambient intelligence
• 15:30 - 16:00 and augmented intelligence and to be honest I think we are um at the time if we don't work with AI in a productive way we are in much more trouble than if we are starting to learn starting to discover and starting to shape how this tool that we've built can actually enable us to do greater things what a time to live in thank you
• 16:00 - 16:30 [Applause]